Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes

Inequity of healthcare access for patients with diabetic foot disease: a retrospective study in south-east Queensland

OBJECTIVES

Logan local government area (LGA) in Queensland has the highest diabetes prevalence (6.5%) within Metro South Health (MSH). The study aimed to determine the burden of, and equity of access to secondary healthcare, for diabetic foot disease (DFD) for Logan residents to better inform healthcare services planning.

DESIGN

A retrospective analysis of hospital admissions data between January 2018 and December 2021.

SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

All episodes of care for DFD provided by MSH hospitals to patients with a residential address in the three LGAs serving the region were included.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome was number of episodes of care for DFD by LGA of residence and hospital of presentation. Secondary outcomes were DFD-related hospital occupied bed days and number of lower extremity amputations.

RESULTS

Among residents in the MSH region, almost half of all episodes of care (47%) and bed days (48%) for DFD were for patients residing in Logan LGA. 40% of episodes of care, 57% of bed days and 73% of lower extremity amputations for DFD for these patients occurred outside of Logan LGA. These findings led to the planning of an integrated model of care for DFD at Logan hospital to improve and make care available locally.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that Logan residents with DFD had poor access to care despite the highest burden. Analysing epidemiology of care for DFD with an equity lens and highlighting gaps in service delivery is paramount to addressing the inequity paradigm.

Impact of the association between education and obesity on diabetes-free life expectancy

BACKGROUND

The purpose of the study was to quantify the association between body weight and health by estimating the expected lifetime with and without diabetes (diabetes-free life expectancy) at age 30 and 65. In addition, the diabetes-free life expectancy was stratified by educational level.

METHODS

Life tables by sex, level of education and obese/not obese were constructed using nationwide register data and self-reported data on body weight and height and diabetes from the Danish National Health Survey in 2021. Diabetes-free life expectancies were estimated by Sullivan's method.

RESULTS

The difference in life expectancy between not obese 30-year-old men with a long and a short education was 5.7 years. For not obese women, the difference was 4.1 years. For obese men and women, the difference in life expectancy at age 30 was 7.0 and 5.2 years. Women could expect more years without and fewer years with diabetes than men regardless of body weight and educational level. Diabetes-free life expectancy differed by 6.9 years between not obese 30-year-old men with a short and a long education and by 7.7 years for obese men with a short and a long education. For women, the differences were 5.9 and 6.6 years.

CONCLUSION

The results demonstrate an association of obesity and educational level with life expectancy and diabetes-free life expectancy. There is a need for preventive efforts to reduce educational inequality in life expectancy and diabetes-free life expectancy. Structural intervention will particularly benefit overweight people with short education.

The lifetime risk of developing type II diabetes in an urban community in Mumbai: findings from a ten-year retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Incidence and prevalence do not capture the risk of developing diabetes during a defined period and only limited evidence exists on the lifetime risk of diabetes based on longer and continuous follow-up studies in India. Lacunae in evidence on lifetime risk can be attributed primarily to the absence of comprehensive and reliable information on diabetes incidence, mortality rates and lack of longitudinal studies in India. In light of the scarcity of evidence in India, the objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of diabetes and its lifetime risk in an urban community of Mumbai.

METHODS

The research study utilized data which is extracted from the electronic medical records of beneficiaries covered under the Contributory Health Service Scheme in Mumbai. The dataset included information on 1652 beneficiaries aged 40 years and above who were non-diabetic in 2011-2012, capturing their visit dates to medical center and corresponding laboratory test results over a span ten years from January, 2012- December, 2021. Survival analysis techniques are applied to estimate the incidence of diabetes. Subsequently, the remaining life years from the life table were utilized to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes for each gender, stratified by age group.

RESULTS

A total of 546 beneficiaries developed diabetes in ten years, yielding an unadjusted incidence rate of 5.3 cases per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 4.9- 5.8 cases/ 1000 person years). The age-adjusted lifetime risk of developing type II diabetes in this urban community is estimated to be 40.3%. Notably, males aged 40 years and above had 41.5% chances of developing diabetes in their lifetime as compared to females with a risk of 39.4%. Moreover, the remaining lifetime risk of diabetes decreased with advancing age, ranging from 26.4% among 40-44 years old to 4.2% among those age 70 years and above.

CONCLUSION

The findings stress the significance of recognizing age specific lifetime risk and implementing early interventions to prevent or delay diabetes onset and to focus on diabetes management programs in India.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of implementing a lifestyle intervention during pregnancy to reduce the incidence of gestational diabetes and type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to determine the long-term cost-effectiveness and return on investment of implementing a structured lifestyle intervention to reduce excessive gestational weight gain and associated incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

A decision-analytic Markov model was used to compare the health and cost-effectiveness outcomes for (1) a structured lifestyle intervention during pregnancy to prevent GDM and subsequent type 2 diabetes; and (2) current usual antenatal care. Life table modelling was used to capture type 2 diabetes morbidity, mortality and quality-adjusted life years over a lifetime horizon for all women giving birth in Australia. Costs incorporated both healthcare and societal perspectives. The intervention effect was derived from published meta-analyses. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to capture the impact of uncertainty in the model.

RESULTS

The model projected a 10% reduction in the number of women subsequently diagnosed with type 2 diabetes through implementation of the lifestyle intervention compared with current usual care. The total net incremental cost of intervention was approximately AU$70 million, and the cost savings from the reduction in costs of antenatal care for GDM, birth complications and type 2 diabetes management were approximately AU$85 million. The intervention was dominant (cost-saving) compared with usual care from a healthcare perspective, and returned AU$1.22 (95% CI 0.53, 2.13) per dollar invested. The results were robust to sensitivity analysis, and remained cost-saving or highly cost-effective in each of the scenarios explored.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This study demonstrates significant cost savings from implementation of a structured lifestyle intervention during pregnancy, due to a reduction in adverse health outcomes for women during both the perinatal period and over their lifetime.

Lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes in 23 high-income jurisdictions: a multinational, population-based study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is a major public health issue. Because lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost are meaningful metrics for clinical decision making, we aimed to estimate these measures for type 2 diabetes in the high-income setting.

METHODS

For this multinational, population-based study, we sourced data from 24 databases for 23 jurisdictions (either whole countries or regions of a country): Australia; Austria; Canada; Denmark; Finland; France; Germany; Hong Kong; Hungary; Israel; Italy; Japan; Latvia; Lithuania; the Netherlands; Norway; Scotland; Singapore; South Korea; Spain; Taiwan; the UK; and the USA. Our main outcomes were lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes, life expectancy in people with and without type 2 diabetes, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes. We modelled the incidence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in people with and without type 2 diabetes in sex-stratified, age-adjusted, and calendar year-adjusted Poisson models for each jurisdiction. Using incidence and mortality, we constructed life tables for people of both sexes aged 20-100 years for each jurisdiction and at two timepoints 5 years apart in the period 2005-19 where possible. Life expectancy from a given age was computed as the area under the survival curves and lifetime lost was calculated as the difference between the expected lifetime of people with versus without type 2 diabetes at a given age. Lifetime risk was calculated as the proportion of each cohort who developed type 2 diabetes between the ages of 20 years and 100 years. We estimated 95% CIs using parametric bootstrapping.

FINDINGS

Across all study cohorts from the 23 jurisdictions (total person-years 1 577 234 194), there were 5 119 585 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 4 007 064 deaths in those with type 2 diabetes, and 11 854 043 deaths in those without type 2 diabetes. The lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes ranged from 16·3% (95% CI 15·6-17·0) for Scottish women to 59·6% (58·5-60·8) for Singaporean men. Lifetime risk declined with time in 11 of the 15 jurisdictions for which two timepoints were studied. Among people with type 2 diabetes, the highest life expectancies were found for both sexes in Japan in 2017-18, where life expectancy at age 20 years was 59·2 years (95% CI 59·2-59·3) for men and 64·1 years (64·0-64·2) for women. The lowest life expectancy at age 20 years with type 2 diabetes was observed in 2013-14 in Lithuania (43·7 years [42·7-44·6]) for men and in 2010-11 in Latvia (54·2 years [53·4-54·9]) for women. Life expectancy in people with type 2 diabetes increased with time for both sexes in all jurisdictions, except for Spain and Scotland. The life expectancy gap between those with and without type 2 diabetes declined substantially in Latvia from 2010-11 to 2015-16 and in the USA from 2009-10 to 2014-15. Years of life lost to type 2 diabetes ranged from 2·5 years (Latvia; 2015-16) to 12·9 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2015-16) for 20-year-old men and from 3·1 years (Finland; 2011-12) to 11·2 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2010-11 and 2015-16) for 20-year-old women. With time, the expected number of years of life lost to type 2 diabetes decreased in some jurisdictions and increased in others. The greatest decrease in years of life lost to type 2 diabetes occurred in the USA between 2009-10 and 2014-15 for 20-year-old men (a decrease of 2·7 years).

INTERPRETATION

Despite declining lifetime risk and improvements in life expectancy for those with type 2 diabetes in many high-income jurisdictions, the burden of type 2 diabetes remains substantial. Public health strategies might benefit from tailored approaches to continue to improve health outcomes for people with diabetes.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Diabetes Australia.

Changes in Visual Impairment due to Diabetic Retinopathy During 1980-2019 Based on Nationwide Register Data

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate changes in the incidence, prevalence, severity, and onset age of visual impairment (VI) due to diabetic retinopathy (DR) and compare these trends in the screening and treatment of diabetes during 40 years based on Finnish national register data.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We included people with VI with nonproliferative DR (NPDR; n = 2,490, 73% women) or proliferative DR (PDR; n = 2,026, 53% women) as the main diagnosis for VI during 1980-2019 in the Finnish Register of Visual Impairment. The number of patients with treated diabetes during 1986-2019 was obtained from the Social Insurance Institution of Finland registers based on reimbursed medication data.

RESULTS

The annual incidence of reported VI due to DR has decreased since it peaked in the 1990s: regarding NPDR, it decreased from 102.3 to 5.5 per 100,000 patients with treated diabetes between the 1990s and 2010s; regarding PDR, the respective change was from 39.9 to 7.4. The incidence of patients with diabetes treated for DR increased during this period. Annual prevalence of reported VI and differences between sexes steadily decreased in the 2000s and 2010s. The severity of reported VI has decreased, and the age at the onset of reported VI increased during the 40 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence and incidence of VI due to DR have dramatically decreased and shifted to older age during the 40 years despite the increasing prevalence of diabetes. These positive trends highlight the successful development and effectiveness of screening and therapies for diabetes and DR.

Effect of family history of diabetes and obesity status on lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes in the Iranian population

Background

Data are scarce for the lifetime risk of diabetes in the Middle East and North Africa region countries. We estimated the lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes among Iranian adults at age 20 and 40 years, and their variation by family history of diabetes and body mass index (BMI).

Methods

The data from 8435 diabetes-free participants from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose study were used in this analysis. We estimated the lifetime risk of diabetes stratified by sex, and quantified the impact of family history of diabetes and BMI status on the lifetime risks, singly and jointly.

Results

At age 20 years, the overall lifetime risk of diabetes was 57.8% (95% CI = 54.0%-61.8%) for men and 61.3% (57.2%-65.4%) for women. Having both family history of diabetes and increased level of BMI, alone, increased the lifetime risk of diabetes in both sexes. Moreover, the simultaneous presence of family history of diabetes and overweigh/obesity increased the lifetime risk of diabetes in both sexes. So that, at age 20 years the lifetime risk in obese men with positive family history of diabetes was about 54% higher, compared to normal weight men without family history of diabetes; the corresponding value for women was 42%. Also, normal weight men without family history of diabetes lived 24 years longer free of diabetes, compared with obese men with family history of diabetes. In women, the corresponding value was 20 years.

Conclusions

Our study shows the alarming lifetime risk of diabetes across the strata of BMI, which emphasizes the need for more effective interventions to reduce incidence, particularly, among individuals with a positive family history of diabetes.

Estimating lifetime risk of diabetes in the Chinese population

In this Perspective, Fiona Bragg and Zhengming Chen discuss the burden of diabetes in the Chinese Population.

Lifetime risk of developing diabetes in Chinese people with normoglycemia or prediabetes: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the lifetime risk of progression to diabetes in the Asian population. We determined remaining lifetime risk of diabetes and life years spent with diabetes in Chinese people with normoglycemia and prediabetes.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using territory-wide diabetes surveillance data curated from electronic medical records of Hong Kong Hospital Authority (HA), we conducted a population-based cohort study in 2,608,973 individuals followed from 2001 to 2019. Prediabetes and diabetes were identified based on laboratory measurements, diagnostic codes, and medication records. Remaining lifetime risk and life years spent with diabetes were estimated using Monte Carlo simulations with state transition probabilities based on a Markov chain model. Validations were performed using several sensitivity analyses and modified survival analysis. External replication was performed using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) cohort (2010 to 2015). The expected remaining lifetime risk of developing diabetes was 88.0 (95% confidence intervals: 87.2, 88.7)% for people with prediabetes and 65.9 (65.8, 65.9)% for people with normoglycemia at age 20 years. A 20-year-old person with prediabetes would live with diabetes for 32.5 (32.0, 33.1) years or 51.6 (50.8, 52.3)% of remaining life years, whereas a person with normoglycemia at 20 years would live 12.7 (12.7, 12.7) years with diabetes or 18.4 (18.4, 18.5)% of remaining life years. Women had a higher expected remaining lifetime risk and longer life years with diabetes compared to men. Results are subjected to possible selection bias as only people who undertook routine or opportunistic screening were included.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that Hong Kong, an economically developed city in Asia, is confronted with huge challenge of high lifetime risk of diabetes and long life years spent with diabetes, especially in people with prediabetes. Effective public health policies and targeted interventions for preventing progression to diabetes are urgently needed.

Trends in lifetime risk and years of potential life lost from diabetes in the United States, 1997–2018

Background

Both incidence and mortality of diagnosed diabetes have decreased over the past decade. However, the impact of these changes on key metrics of diabetes burden–lifetime risk (LR), years of potential life lost (YPLL), and years spent with diabetes–is unknown.

Methods

We used data from 653,811 adults aged ≥18 years from the National Health Interview Survey, a cross-sectional sample of the civilian non-institutionalized population in the United States. LR, YPLL, and years spent with diabetes were estimated from age 18 to 84 by survey period (1997–1999, 2000–2004, 2005–2009, 2010–2014, 2015–2018). The age-specific incidence of diagnosed diabetes and mortality were estimated using Poisson regression. A multistate difference equation accounting for competing risks was used to model each metric.

Results

LR and years spent with diabetes initially increased then decreased over the most recent time periods. LR for adults at age 20 increased from 31.7% (95% CI: 31.2–32.1%) in 1997–1999 to 40.7% (40.2–41.1%) in 2005–2009, then decreased to 32.8% (32.4–33.2%) in 2015–2018. Both LR and years spent with diabetes were markedly higher among adults of non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and other races compared to non-Hispanic Whites. YPLL significantly decreased over the study period, with the estimated YPLL due to diabetes for an adult aged 20 decreasing from 8.9 (8.7–9.1) in 1997–1999 to 6.2 (6.1–6.4) in 2015–2018 (p = 0.02).

Conclusion

In the United States, diabetes burden is declining, but disparities by race/ethnicity remain. LR remains high with approximately one-third of adults estimated to develop diabetes during their lifetime.

22-year trends in dysglycemia and body mass index: A population-based cohort study in Savitaipale, Finland

AIMS

We describe a 22-year prospective observational population-based study that determined the prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and intermediate hyperglycaemia (IH), obesity, hypertension, and disorders of lipid metabolism in a middle-age population in the Finnish municipality of Savitaipale.

METHODS

1151 people participated in the baseline survey in 1996-1999, following two follow-up examinations, in 2007-2008 and 2018-2019. Follow-up studies comprised clinical measurements, 2-h oral glucose tolerance test and other biochemistry, questionnaires, and registry data.

RESULTS

The prevalence of T2D quadrupled to 27% and the proportion of normoglycemic people decreased from 73% to 44% while IH increased only slightly during the 22-year follow-up. A large proportion of people who died between the surveys were diabetic. The mean body mass index (BMI) did not, whereas mean waist circumference increased significantly, by 5-6 cm (P = 0.001) during the 22 years. Systolic blood pressure increased by 13-15 mmHg from baseline (P = 0.0001) but diastolic blood pressure did not. The mean plasma levels of total and LDL-cholesterol decreased 10.8% and 8.9% in women (P = 0.001), 21.5% and 22.2% in men (P = 0.001), respectively, while HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides remained stable. The proportion of those achieving targets in the treatment of dyslipidaemia increased significantly (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this 22-year prospective follow-up study of in middle-aged Europeans with high participation rates, the progression of dysglycaemia to overt diabetes with aging was rapid, even without a significant change in BMI.

Diabetes free life expectancy and years of life lost associated with type 2 diabetes: projected trends in Germany between 2015 and 2040

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) causes substantial disease burden and is projected to affect an increasing number of people in coming decades. This study provides projected estimates of life years free of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and years of life lost ([Formula: see text]) associated with T2D for Germany in the years 2015 and 2040.

METHODS

Based on an illness-death model and the associated mathematical relation between prevalence, incidence and mortality, we projected the prevalence of diagnosed T2D using currently available data on the incidence rate of diagnosed T2D and mortality rates of people with and without diagnosed T2D. Projection of prevalence was achieved by integration of a partial differential equation, which governs the illness-death model. These projected parameters were used as input values to calculate life years free of T2D and [Formula: see text] associated with T2D for the German population aged 40 to 100 years in the years 2015 and 2040, while accounting for different assumptions on future trends in T2D incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

Assuming a constant incidence rate, women and men at age 40 years in 2015 will live approximately 38 years and 33 years free of T2D, respectively. Up to the year 2040, these numbers are projected to increase by 1.0 years and 1.3 years. Assuming a decrease in T2D-associated excess mortality of 2% per year, women and men aged 40 years with T2D in 2015 will be expected to lose 1.6 and 2.7 years of life, respectively, compared to a same aged person without T2D. In 2040, these numbers would reduce by approximately 0.9 years and 1.6 years. This translates to 10.8 million and 6.4 million [Formula: see text] in the German population aged 40-100 years with prevalent T2D in 2015 and 2040, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Given expected trends in mortality and no increase in T2D incidence, the burden due to premature mortality associated with T2D will decrease on the individual as well as on the population level. In addition, the expected lifetime without T2D is likely to increase. However, these trends strongly depend on future improvements of excess mortality associated with T2D and future incidence of T2D, which should motivate increased efforts of primary and tertiary prevention.

Downregulation of acylglycerol kinase suppresses high glucose-induced endothelial-mesenchymal transition in HRECs through regulating the LPAR1/TGF-β/Notch signaling pathway

The endothelial-mesenchymal transition (EndMT) participates in the progression of diabetic retinopathy (DR), but cell-intrinsic factors modulating this process remain elusive. In this study, we explored the role of lysophosphatidic acid (LPA)-producing enzyme, acylglycerol kinase (AGK) in the EndMT of human retinal microvascular endothelial cells (HRECs) under high glucose (HG) conditions. We found that AGK was significantly elevated in HG-treated cells. In addition, AGK knockdown reversed the HG-induced EndMT in HRECs, which was evidenced by the increased epithelial markers (CD31 and VE-cadherin) and decreased mesenchymal markers (FSP1 and α-SMA). Furthermore, downregulation of AGK inhibited the HG-induced activation of TGF-β/Notch pathways, whereas exogenous TGF-β1 (10 ng/ml) impeded the inhibitory effects of AGK knockdown on HG-induced EndMT in HRECs. Additionally, the silence of AGK abolished the HG-induced upregulation of LPA and its receptor LPAR1, and overexpression of LPAR1 further rescued the AGK knockdown-mediated inhibition of the EndMT process. In conclusion, we demonstrate that downregulation of acylglycerol kinase suppresses high glucose-induced endothelial-mesenchymal transition in HRECs through regulating the LPAR1/TGF-β/Notch signaling pathway, indicating that AGK might be a potential therapeutic target for the treatment of DR.

Lifetime risk of developing diabetes and years of life lost among those with diabetes in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Given the paucity of studies for low- or middle-income countries, we aim to provide the first ever estimations of lifetime risk of diabetes, years of life spent and lost among those with diabetes for Brazilians. Estimates of Brazil´s diabetes burden consist essentially of reports of diabetes prevalence from national surveys and mortality data. However, these additional metrics are at times more meaningful ways to characterize this burden.

METHODS

We joined data on incidence of physician-diagnosed diabetes from the Brazilian risk factor surveillance system, all-cause mortality from national statistics, and diabetes mortality rate ratios from ELSA-Brasil, an ongoing cohort study. To calculate lifetime risk of developing diabetes, we applied an illness-death state model. To calculate years of life lost for those with diabetes and years lived with the disease, we additionally calculated the mortality rates for those with diabetes.

RESULTS

A 35-year-old white adult had a 23.4% (95% CI = 22.5%-25.5%) lifetime risk of developing diabetes by age 80 while a same-aged black/brown adult had a 30.8% risk (95% confidence interval (CI) = 29.6%-33.2%). Men diagnosed with diabetes at age 35 would live 32.9 (95% CI = 32.4-33.2) years with diabetes and lose 5.5 (95% CI = 5.1-6.1) years of life. Similarly-aged women would live 38.8 (95% CI = 38.3-38.9) years with diabetes and lose 2.1 (95% CI = 1.9-2.6) years of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Assuming maintenance of current rates, one-quarter of young Brazilians will develop diabetes over their lifetimes, with this number reaching almost one-third among young, black/brown women. Those developing diabetes will suffer a decrease in life expectancy and will generate a considerable cost in terms of medical care.

Lifetime risk of developing diabetes and years of life lost among those with diabetes in Brazil

Background

Given the paucity of studies for low- or middle-income countries, we aim to provide the first ever estimations of lifetime risk of diabetes, years of life spent and lost among those with diabetes for Brazilians. Estimates of Brazil´s diabetes burden consist essentially of reports of diabetes prevalence from national surveys and mortality data. However, these additional metrics are at times more meaningful ways to characterize this burden.

Methods

We joined data on incidence of physician-diagnosed diabetes from the Brazilian risk factor surveillance system, all-cause mortality from national statistics, and diabetes mortality rate ratios from ELSA-Brasil, an ongoing cohort study. To calculate lifetime risk of developing diabetes, we applied an illness-death state model. To calculate years of life lost for those with diabetes and years lived with the disease, we additionally calculated the mortality rates for those with diabetes.

Results

A 35-year-old white adult had a 23.4% (95% CI = 22.5%-25.5%) lifetime risk of developing diabetes by age 80 while a same-aged black/brown adult had a 30.8% risk (95% confidence interval (CI) = 29.6%-33.2%). Men diagnosed with diabetes at age 35 would live 32.9 (95% CI = 32.4-33.2) years with diabetes and lose 5.5 (95% CI = 5.1-6.1) years of life. Similarly-aged women would live 38.8 (95% CI = 38.3-38.9) years with diabetes and lose 2.1 (95% CI = 1.9-2.6) years of life.

Conclusions

Assuming maintenance of current rates, one-quarter of young Brazilians will develop diabetes over their lifetimes, with this number reaching almost one-third among young, black/brown women. Those developing diabetes will suffer a decrease in life expectancy and will generate a considerable cost in terms of medical care.

Lifetime risk of diabetes in metropolitan cities in India

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes and diabetes-free life expectancy in metropolitan cities in India among the population aged 20 years or more, and their variation by sex, age and BMI.

METHODS

A Markov simulation model was adopted to estimate age-, sex- and BMI-specific lifetime risk of developing diabetes and diabetes-free life expectancy. The main data inputs used were as follows: age-, sex- and BMI-specific incidence rates of diabetes in urban India taken from the Centre for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (2010-2018); age-, sex- and urban-specific rates of mortality from period lifetables reported by the Government of India (2014); and prevalence of diabetes from the Indian Council for Medical Research INdia DIABetes study (2008-2015).

RESULTS

Lifetime risk (95% CI) of diabetes in 20-year-old men and women was 55.5 (51.6, 59.7)% and 64.6 (60.0, 69.5)%, respectively. Women generally had a higher lifetime risk across the lifespan. Remaining lifetime risk (95% CI) declined with age to 37.7 (30.1, 46.7)% at age 60 years among women and 27.5 (23.1, 32.4)% in men. Lifetime risk (95% CI) was highest among obese Indians: 86.0 (76.6, 91.5)% among 20-year-old women and 86.9 (75.4, 93.8)% among men. We identified considerably higher diabetes-free life expectancy at lower levels of BMI.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Lifetime risk of diabetes in metropolitan cities in India is alarming across the spectrum of weight and rises dramatically with higher BMI. Prevention of diabetes among metropolitan Indians of all ages is an urgent national priority, particularly given the rapid increase in urban obesogenic environments across the country. Graphical abstract.

Prevalence and associations of non-retinopathy ocular conditions among older Australians with self-reported diabetes: The National Eye Health Survey

AIM

To determine the prevalence and associations of non-retinopathy ocular conditions among older Australian adults with diabetes.

METHODS

Multistage random-cluster sampling was used to select 3098 non-indigenous Australians aged 50y or older (46.4% male) and 1738 indigenous Australians aged 40y or older (41.1% male) from all levels of geographic remoteness in Australia. Participants underwent a standardised questionnaire to ascertain diabetes history, and a clinical examination to identify eye disease. We determined the prevalence of uncorrected refractive error, visually significant cataract, cataract surgery, age-related macular degeneration, glaucoma, ocular hypertension, retinal vein occlusion and epiretinal membrane among those with and without self-reported diabetes.

RESULTS

Participants with self-reported diabetes had a higher prevalence of cataract surgery than those without diabetes (28.8% vs 16.9%, OR 1.78, 95%CI: 1.35-2.34 among non-indigenous Australians, and 11.3% vs 5.2%, OR 1.62, 95%CI: 1.22-2.14 among indigenous Australians). Diabetic retinopathy (DR) increased the odds of cataract surgery among self-reported diabetic indigenous and non-indigenous Australians (OR 1.89, P=0.004 and OR 2.33, P<0.001 respectively). Having diabetes for ≥20y and having vision-threatening DR increased the odds of cataract surgery among indigenous Australians with diabetes (OR 3.73, P=0.001 and 7.58, P<0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Most non-retinopathy ocular conditions are not associated with self-reported diabetes. However, to account for Australia's worsening diabetes epidemic, interventions to reduce the impact of diabetes-related blindness should include increased cataract surgery services.

A systematic review of trends in all-cause mortality among people with diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We examined all-cause mortality trends in people with diabetes and compared them with trends among people without diabetes.

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL databases were searched for observational studies published from 1980 to 2019 reporting all-cause mortality rates across ≥2 time periods in people with diabetes. Mortality trends were examined by ethnicity, age and sex within comparable calendar periods.

RESULTS

Of 30,295 abstracts screened, 35 studies were included, providing data on 69 separate ethnic-specific or sex-specific populations with diabetes since 1970. Overall, 43% (3/7), 53% (10/19) and 74% (32/43) of the populations studied had decreasing trends in all-cause mortality rates in people with diabetes in 1970-1989, 1990-1999 and 2000-2016, respectively. In 1990-1999 and 2000-2016, mortality rates declined in 75% (9/12) and 78% (28/36) of predominantly Europid populations, and in 14% (1/7) and 57% (4/7) of non-Europid populations, respectively. In 2000-2016, mortality rates declined in 33% (4/12), 65% (11/17), 88% (7/8) and 76% (16/21) of populations aged <40, 40-54, 55-69 and ≥70 years, respectively. Among the 33 populations with separate mortality data for those with and without diabetes, 60% (6/10) of the populations with diabetes in 1990-1999 and 58% (11/19) in 2000-2016 had an annual reduction in mortality rates that was similar to or greater than in those without diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

All-cause mortality has declined in the majority of predominantly Europid populations with diabetes since 2000, and the magnitude of annual mortality reduction matched or exceeded that observed in people without diabetes in nearly 60% of populations. Patterns of diabetes mortality remain uncertain in younger age groups and non-Europid populations.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration ID CRD42019095974. Graphical abstract.

Prevalence of diabetes mellitus at the end of life: An investigation using individually linked cause-of-death and medical register data

AIMS

Although diabetes mellitus at the end of life is associated with complex care, its end-of-life prevalence is uncertain. Our aim is to estimate diabetes prevalence in the end-of-life population, to evaluate which medical register has the largest added value to cause-of-death data in detecting diabetes cases, and to assess the extent to which reporting of diabetes as a cause of death is associated with disease severity.

METHODS

Our study population consisted of deaths in the Netherlands (2015-2016) included in Nivel Primary Care Database (Nivel-PCD; N = 18,162). The proportion of deaths with diabetes (Type 1 or 2) within the last two years of life was calculated using individually linked cause-of-death, general practice, medication, and hospital discharge data. Severity status of diabetes was defined with dispensed medicines.

RESULTS

According to all data sources combined, 28.7% of the study population had diabetes at the end of life. The estimated end-of-life prevalence of diabetes was 7.7% using multiple cause-of-death data only. Addition of general practice data increased this estimate the most (19.7%-points). Of the cases added by primary care data, 76.3% had a severe or intermediate status.

CONCLUSIONS

More than one fourth of the Dutch end-of-life population has diabetes. Cause-of-death data are insufficient to monitor this prevalence, even of severe cases of diabetes, but could be enriched particularly with general practice data.

Is liver glycogen fragility a possible drug target for diabetes?

Liver glycogen α particles are molecularly fragile in diabetic mice, and readily form smaller β particles, which degrade more rapidly to glucose. This effect is well associated with the loss of blood-glucose homeostasis in diabetes. The biological mechanism of such fragility is still unknown; therefore, there are perceived opportunities that could eventually lead to new means to manage type 2 diabetes. The hierarchical structures of glycogen particles are controlled by the underlying biosynthesis/degradation process that involves various enzymes, including, for example, glycogen synthase (GS) and glycogen-branching enzyme (GBE). Recent studies have shown that fragile glycogen α particles in diabetic mice have longer chains and a higher molecular density compared to wild-type mice, indicating an enhanced enzymatic activity ratio of GS to GBE in diabetes. Furthermore, it has been shown that with an improved blood glucose homeostasis, the glycogen fragility in diabetic mice can be restored by treatment with active ingredients from traditional Chinese medicine, yet the underlying mechanism is unknown. In this review, we summarize recent advances in understandings glycogen fragility from the perspectives of glycogen biosynthesis/degradation, glycogen hierarchical structures, and its relation to diabetes. Importantly, we for the first time set GS/GBE activity ratio as the therapeutic target for diabetes.

Projected number of people with diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040

AIMS

To project the number of people with Type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2015 and 2040.

METHODS

Based on data from 65 million insurees of the German statutory health insurance, we projected the age-specific prevalence of diabetes using mathematical relations between prevalence, incidence rate and mortality. We compared several scenarios regarding temporal trends in the incidence and mortality rate. The projected age-specific prevalence was applied to the projected age structure of the German population between 2015 and 2040 to calculate the number of people with Type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

Application of current age-specific prevalence estimates to the projected age structure in 2040, although ignoring temporal trends in incidence and mortality, yielded an increase in the number of Type 2 diabetes cases from 6.9 million in 2015 to 8.3 million (+21%) in 2040. More realistic scenarios that account for decreasing mortality rates and different trends in the incidence rates project between 10.7 million (+54%) and 12.3 million (+77%) Type 2 diabetes cases in 2040.

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time, we projected the number of future Type 2 diabetes cases for the whole adult population in Germany. The results indicate a relative increase in the number of Type 2 diabetes cases of between 54% and 77% from 2015 to 2040. Temporal trends in the incidence rate are the main drivers of this increase. Simply applying current age-specific prevalence to the future age structure probably underestimates the future number of Type 2 diabetes cases.

Positive selection of type 2 diabetes genotypes - the glycaemic threshold hypothesis

The high prevalence of deleterious polygenic type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a paradox requiring explanation beyond food excess, inactivity and the obesity resulting from positive energy balance. Historically, hunting-foraging and later agrarian communities often manifested a converse negative energy balance due to nutritional deficit and/or high physical energy demand - both potentially resulting in hypoglycaemia. Since hypoglycaemia impairs both reproductive fitness and cognitive function, it is proposed that that by expressing resistance to hypoglycaemia, T2D phenotypes were subject to positive selection. The insulin resistance present in often-associated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, metabolic syndrome and polycystic ovarian disease may also explain their frequent coexistence and current prevalence.

The healing of dental extraction sockets in insulin-dependent diabetic patients: a prospective controlled observational study

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to determine whether there was a difference in delayed healing following dental extractions for insulin-dependent diabetics as compared to non-diabetic patients.

METHODS

Prospective patients referred to the Adelaide Dental Hospital exodontia clinic for dental extractions were recruited into two groups: Known insulin-dependent diabetics and healthy non-diabetics. All had a random blood glucose level (BGL). Delayed healing cases were identified, and statistical evaluation was performed.

RESULTS

There were 56 insulin-dependent diabetic patients (BGL 10.03, range 4.9-26) and 49 non-diabetic, age- and sex-matched patients. Seven patients (12.5%) in the study group showed delayed healing following extraction, while only four patients (8.2%) in the control group suffered delayed healing. This difference was not statistically significant. Two of the study group developed postextraction infections, requiring incision, drainage and antibiotics.

CONCLUSION

The study shows that Type 1 and insulin-dependent Type 2 diabetic patients, if well controlled, tend to heal up well following dental extractions but with a small but not statistically different rate of postextraction complications including infection. This is contrary to what is usually taught. Clinicians should take great care with management of insulin-dependent diabetic patients, as compared to non-insulin dependent diabetics or non-diabetic patients.

Cost-Effectiveness of Bariatric Surgery versus Medication Therapy for Obese Patients with Type 2 Diabetes in China: A Markov Analysis

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

The present study estimated the cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery versus medication therapy for the management of recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in obese patients from a Chinese health insurance payer perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Markov model was established to compare the 40-year time costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) between bariatric surgery and medication therapy. The health-care costs in the bariatric surgery group, proportion of patients in each group with remission of diabetes, and state transition probabilities were calculated based on observed resource utilization from the hospital information system (HIS). The corresponding costs in the medication therapy group were derived from the medical insurance database. QALYs were estimated from previous literature. Costs and outcomes were discounted 5% annually.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, bariatric surgery was more effective and less costly than medication therapy. Over a 40-year time horizon, the mean discounted costs were 86,366.55 RMB per surgical therapy patient and 113,235.94 CNY per medication therapy patient. The surgical and medication therapy patients lived 13.46 and 10.95 discounted QALYs, respectively. Bariatric surgery was associated with a mean health-care savings of 26,869.39 CNY and 2.51 additional QALYs per patient compared to medication therapy. Uncertainty around the parameter values was tested comprehensively in sensitivity analyses, and the results were robust.

CONCLUSIONS

Bariatric surgery is a dominant intervention over a 40-year time horizon, which leads to significant cost savings to the health insurance payer and increases in health benefits for the management of recently diagnosed T2DM in obese patients in China.

Associations between self-reported diabetes mellitus, disordered eating behaviours, weight/shape overvaluation, and health-related quality of life

BACKGROUND

Eating disorders (ED) and disordered eating behaviours (DEB) have been found to be common in people with diabetes mellitus (DM). However, findings have been inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated the association between self-reported diabetes (Type 1 or 2) with ED/DEB (binge eating, subjective binge eating or loss of control overeating, severe dieting and purging) weight/shape overvaluation, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in a household survey in South Australia.

METHOD

In 2017 2977 people aged ≥15 years, who were representative of the general population, were interviewed. Participants reported their gender, age, household income, highest educational attainment, area of residence, presence of DM, ED/DEB, level of overvaluation, current HRQoL and height and weight. For the analyses between ED/DEB, self-reported DM and HRQoL, a grouping variable was created: 1) people without ED/DEB or self-reported DM; 2) people without ED/DEB and with self-reported DM; 3) people with ED/DEB and without self-reported DM; and 4) people with ED/DEB and self-reported DM. Analyses were stratified by sex and age group.

RESULTS

Subjective binge eating prevalence was higher in people with self-reported DM (6.6% vs 2.8%, p = 0.016), and overvaluation was lower in those with DM (36% vs 43.8%, p = 0.007). In analyses stratified by sex and age group, subjective binge eating was higher in women and in people over 45 years with self-reported DM and overvaluation was lower in men and in people over 45 years with self-reported DM. However, these differences were not significant on tests of gender and age interaction. People in both DM groups scored significantly lower than people without DM groups on physical HRQoL. In contrast, people in both ED/DEB groups scored lower than people without ED/BEB on mental HRQoL.

CONCLUSION

People with self-reported DM had a higher prevalence of subjective binge eating, a lower prevalence of overvaluation and there were no significant effects of age or gender. Furthermore, participants with self-reported DM and comorbid ED or DEB had impairments of both mental and physical HRQoL. Assessing an individual's sense of control over eating along with other DEB is likely important for identification of these mental health problems.

Burden Of Treatment Among Patients Undergoing Intravitreal Injections For Diabetic Macular Oedema In Australia

AIM

The incidence and prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Australia is increasing. Thus, it is essential that practitioners appreciate the impending effect that increasing incidence of diabetes has on patients and the wider community. Accordingly, this study examines the humanistic burden of intravitreal injections for the treatment of diabetic macular oedema (DMO) among several health variables.

METHODS

Survey data from a representative sample of Australian adults undergoing treatment for DMO were examined. Respondents participated via an online survey recruited by means of a national online consumer panel and the New South Wales and Victorian Diabetes Foundations. The online survey included questions relating to the humanistic burden of disease, such as the emotional and physical impact of intravitreal injection therapy; the practical impacts of injection therapy; and to identify potential improvements to treatment regimens.

RESULTS

Sixty-five participants took part in the online survey. Of these, 49% had their most recent injection <1 month prior to completing the survey. The mean age was 52.5 years, with the majority of patients in full-time work. A substantial proportion of participants had several comorbidities, with a significantly high Charlson comorbidity index of 2.7. Participants reported the main burden of DMO care was the direct cost of medical treatment and the time burden demanded upon their carers. Results suggest that the overall burden is significant for those with diabetes and increases as additional complications of diabetes occur.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that treatment strategies for DMO should consider clinical, humanistic and economic burden and patients should be educated on the roles of complications in disease outcomes. Less frequent treatment regimens could also reduce the economic burden and assist in decreasing the effect on health care resources, relevant to the escalation in the prevalence of diabetes.

Cumulative Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in a Working Population: The Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study

BACKGROUND

We estimated the cumulative risk of type 2 diabetes from age 30 to 65 years in a large working population in Japan.

METHODS

We used data from the Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study. Participants (46,065 men and 7,763 women) were aged 30-59 years, free of diabetes at baseline, and followed up for a maximum of 7 years. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined based on fasting and casual glucose, glycated hemoglobin, and current medical treatment for type 2 diabetes. We calculated the sex-specific cumulative risk of type 2 diabetes using the Practical Incidence Estimator macro, which was created to produce several estimates of disease incidence for prospective cohort studies based on a modified Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

During 274,349 person-years of follow-up, 3,587 individuals (3,339 men and 248 women) developed type 2 diabetes. The cumulative risk was 34.7% (95% confidence interval, 33.1-36.3%) for men and 18.6% (95% confidence interval, 15.5-21.7%) for women. In BMI-stratified analysis, obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) and overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2) men and women had a much higher cumulative risk of type 2 diabetes (obese: 77.3% for men and 64.8% for women; overweight: 49.1% and 35.7%, respectively) than those with BMI <25 kg/m2 (26.2% and 13.4% for men and women, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The present data highlight the public health burden of type 2 diabetes in the working population. There is a need for effective programs for weight management and type 2 diabetes screening, especially for young obese employees, to prevent or delay the development of type 2 diabetes.

The burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil and its states: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Introduction and objective:

The global burden of disease (GBD) 2015 project, extends GBD analyses to include Brazilian federative units separately. We take advantage of GBD methodological advances to describe the current burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil.

Methods:

Using standard GBD 2015 methods, we analyzed the burden of diabetes, chronic kidney disease due to diabetes and high fasting plasma glucose in Brazil and its states.

Results:

The age-standardized rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) which was lost to high fasting plasma glucose, a category which encompasses burdens of diabetes and of lesser hyperglycemia, were 2448.85 (95% UI 2165.96-2778.69) /100000 for males, and 1863.90 (95% UI 1648.18-2123.47) /100000 for females in 2015. This rate was more than twice as great in states with highest burden, these being overwhelmingly in the northeast and north, compared with those with lowest rates. The rate of crude DALYs for high fasting plasma glucose, increased by 35% since 1990, while DALYs due to all non-communicable diseases increased only by 12.7%, and DALYs from all causes declined by 20.5%.

Discussion:

The worldwide pandemic of diabetes and hyperglycemia now causes a major and growing disease burden in Brazil, especially in states with greater poverty and a lesser educational level.

Conclusion:

Diabetes and chronic kidney disease due to diabetes, as well as high fasting plasma glucose in general, currently constitute a major and growing public health problem in Brazil. Actions to date for their prevention and control have been slow considering the magnitude of this burden.

The Productivity Burden of Diabetes at a Population Level

OBJECTIVE

Recent studies suggest that diabetes may impact work productivity. In the current study, we sought to estimate the lifetime and population impact of diabetes on productivity using the novel measure of "productivity-adjusted life years" (PALYs).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using age-specific mortality rates and a productivity index attributable to diabetes (akin to the quality of life index, but which adjusts for reduction in productivity) and life table modeling, we estimated years of life and PALYs lost to diabetes among Australians with diabetes currently aged 20-65 years, with follow-up until 69 years. Life tables were first constructed for the cohort with diabetes and then repeated for the same cohort but with the assumption that they no longer had diabetes. The "nondiabetic" cohort had lower mortality rates and improved productivity. The differences in total years of life lived and PALYs lived between the two cohorts reflected the impact of diabetes.

RESULTS

Overall, diabetes reduced total years of life lived by the cohort by 190,219 years or almost 3%. Diabetes reduced PALYs by 11.6% and 10.5% among men and women, respectively. For both sexes, the impact of diabetes on productivity was lowest in those aged 65-69 years and highest in those 20-24 years. Among the latter, PALYs were reduced by 12.2% and 11.0% for men and women, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Elimination of diabetes can prolong life years lived by the whole population and increase the amount of productive years lived. Employers and government should be aware that having diabetes affects work force productivity and implement prevention programs to reduce the impact of diabetes on the workforce.

Prevalence and Causes of Unilateral Vision Impairment and Unilateral Blindness in Australia: The National Eye Health Survey

Importance

This study determines the prevalence of unilateral vision impairment (VI) and unilateral blindness to assist in policy formulation for eye health care services.

Objective

To determine the prevalence and causes of unilateral VI and unilateral blindness in Australia.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted from March 2015 to April 2016 at 30 randomly selected sites across all strata of geographic remoteness in Australia. A total of 1738 indigenous Australians 40 years or older and 3098 nonindigenous Australians 50 years or older were included.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The prevalence and causes of unilateral vision impairment and blindness, defined as presenting visual acuity worse than 6/12 and 6/60, respectively, in the worse eye, and 6/12 or better in the better eye.

Results

Of the 1738 indigenous Australians, mean (SD) age was 55.0 (10.0) years, and 1024 participants (58.9%) were female. Among the 3098 nonindigenous Australians, mean (SD) age was 66.6 (9.7) years, and 1661 participants (53.6%) were female. The weighted prevalence of unilateral VI in indigenous Australians was 12.5% (95% CI, 11.0%-14.2%) and the prevalence of unilateral blindness was 2.4% (95% CI, 1.7%-3.3%), respectively. In nonindigenous Australians, the prevalence of unilateral VI was 14.6% (95% CI, 13.1%-16.3%) and unilateral blindness was found in 1.4% (95% CI, 1.0%-1.8%). The age-adjusted and sex-adjusted prevalence of unilateral vision loss was higher in indigenous Australians than nonindigenous Australians (VI: 18.7% vs 14.5%; P = .02; blindness: 2.9% vs 1.3%; P = .02). Risk factors for unilateral vision loss included older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.60 for each decade of age for indigenous Australians; 95% CI, 1.39-1.86; OR, 1.65 per decade for nonindigenous Australians; 95% CI, 1.38-1.96), very remote residence (OR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.01-2.74) and self-reported diabetes (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.12-2.07) for indigenous Australians, and having not undergone an eye examination in the past 2 years for nonindigenous Australians (OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.04-2.27). Uncorrected refractive error and cataract were leading causes of unilateral VI in both populations (70%-75%). Corneal pathology (16.7%) and cataract (13.9%) were leading causes of unilateral blindness in indigenous Australians, while amblyopia (18.8%), trauma (16.7%), and age-related macular degeneration (10.4%) were major causes of unilateral blindness in nonindigenous Australians.

Conclusions and Relevance

Unilateral vision loss is prevalent in indigenous and nonindigenous Australians; however, most cases are avoidable. As those with unilateral vision loss caused by cataract and posterior segment diseases may be at great risk of progressing to bilateral blindness, national blindness prevention programs may benefit from prioritizing examination and treatment of those with unilateral vision loss.

Adherence to diabetic eye examination guidelines in Australia: the National Eye Health Survey

OBJECTIVE

To determine adherence to NHMRC eye examination guidelines for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian people with diabetes.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey using multistage, random cluster sampling.

SETTING

Thirty randomly selected geographic sites in the five mainland Australian states and the Northern Territory, stratified by remoteness.

PARTICIPANTS

1738 Indigenous Australians aged 40-92 years and 3098 non-Indigenous Australians aged 50-98 years were recruited and examined between March 2015 and April 2016 according to a standardised protocol that included a questionnaire (administered by an interviewer) and a series of standard eye tests.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Adherence rates to NHMRC eye examination guidelines; factors influencing adherence.

RESULTS

Adherence to screening recommendations was significantly greater among non-Indigenous Australians (biennial screening; 77.5%) than Indigenous Australians (annual screening; 52.7%; P < 0.001). Greater adherence by non-Indigenous Australians was associated with longer duration of diabetes (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.19 per 5 years; P = 0.018), while increasing age was associated with poorer adherence in non-Indigenous Australians (aOR, 0.70 per decade; P = 0.011). For Indigenous Australians, residing in inner regional areas (aOR, 1.66; P = 0.007) and being male (aOR, 1.46; P = 0.018) were significant factors positively associated with adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

More than three-quarters of non-Indigenous Australians with diabetes and more than half of Indigenous Australians with diabetes adhere to the NHMRC eye examination guidelines. The discrepancy between the adherence rates may point to gaps in the provision or uptake of screening services in Indigenous communities, or a lack of awareness of the guidelines. A carefully integrated diabetic retinopathy screening service is needed, particularly in remote areas, to improve adherence rates.

Change in life expectancy with type 2 diabetes: a study using claims data from lower Saxony, Germany

Background

This study estimates life expectancy with and without type 2 diabetes for individuals in Lower Saxony, Germany in order to detect a trend in population health.

Methods

Morbidity and mortality data derived from German administrative claims data (statutory health insurance, AOK Niedersachsen, N = 2,900,065) were used covering 10 years from 2005 to 2014. Life table analysis was applied for calculating life expectancy, life expectancy free of type 2 diabetes, life expectancy with type 2 diabetes, and the proportion of life expectancy free of diabetes to total life expectancy using the Sullivan method.

Results

The total life expectancy increase is stronger in men than in women: At the age of 20, total life expectancy was 55.0 years in 2005 and 56.3 years in 2014 for men, whereas it was 61.7 years in 2005 and 62.5 years in 2014 for women. Decreases in life expectancy without type 2 diabetes were more pronounced in women than in men. Accordingly, life expectancy with type 2 diabetes increased in both women and in men. The proportion of life expectancy without diabetes to total life expectancy decreased, indicating a similar development in both. For example, at the age of 60, the proportion of life expectancy without diabetes to total life expectancy decreased from 0.75 in 2005 to 0.66 in 2014 for men, while it decreased from 0.77 in 2005 to 0.70 in 2014 for women.

Conclusions

Against the background of increasing total life expectancy, the time spent in morbidity increased for the case of type 2 diabetes in Lower Saxony, Germany.

The Prevalence of Self-Reported Diabetes in the Australian National Eye Health Survey

Objective

To present the prevalence of self-reported diabetes in Indigenous and non-Indigenous participants in the National Eye Health Survey.

Research Design and Methods

3098 non-Indigenous Australians aged 50–98 years and 1738 Indigenous Australians aged 40–92 years were examined in 30 randomly selected sites, stratified by remoteness. A history of diabetes was obtained using an interviewer-administered questionnaire.

Results

13.91% (431/3098) of non-Indigenous Australians and 37.11% (645/1738) of Indigenous Australians had self-reported diabetes. The age-adjusted prevalence of self-reported diabetes for non-Indigenous and Indigenous Australians was 11.49% and 43.77%, respectively (p <0.001). The prevalence of self-reported diabetes increased markedly with age (OR = 1.04 per year, p = 0.017). Indigenous Australians living in very remote areas were more likely to have self-reported diabetes than those in major city areas (OR = 1.61, p = 0.038).

Conclusions

The prevalence of self-reported diabetes in Australia was high, with the prevalence being almost 4 times higher in Indigenous Australians compared with non-Indigenous Australians. With the prevalence of diabetes likely to increase, the results of this national survey may inform future policy, planning and funding allocation to assist in controlling the diabetes epidemic.

The role of gp130 receptor cytokines in the regulation of metabolic homeostasis

It is well known that obesity is responsible, at least in part, for the increased incidence of chronic diseases such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and certain types of cancer. Despite public education programs emphasizing lifestyle modifications to arrest this global pandemic, it is now estimated that 10-15% of the world's population are overweight or obese. As a result, new therapeutic options for the treatment of obesity-related disorders are clearly warranted. Much of the benefit of physical activity has been attributed to several mechanisms including reduced adiposity, increased cardiorespiratory fitness, reduced circulating lipids and the maintenance of muscle mass. However, the observation that the gp130 receptor cytokine interleukin-6 (IL-6) was released from skeletal muscle during exercise to improve metabolic homeostasis altered our understanding of the health benefits of exercise and opened avenues for research into potential novel therapeutics to treat metabolic disease. One gp130 receptor cytokine in particular, ciliary neurotrophic factor (CNTF), a pluripotent neurocytokine, showed efficacy as a potential anti-obesogenic therapy. This review examines the potential of gp130 receptor ligands, with a focus on IL-6 and CNTF as therapeutic strategies to treat obesity-related disorders.

Diabetes mellitus statistics on prevalence and mortality: facts and fallacies

Diabetes mellitus is one of the most important public health challenges of the twenty-first century. Until the past decade, it has been seriously underrated as a global health threat. Major gaps exist in efforts to comprehend the burden nationally and globally, especially in developing nations, due to a lack of accurate data for monitoring and surveillance. Early attempts to obtain accurate data, discussed in this article, seem to have been cast aside so, at present, these needs remain unmet. Existing international efforts to assemble information fall far short of requirements. Current estimates are imprecise, only providing a rough picture, and probably underestimate the disease burden. The methodologies that are currently used, and that are discussed in this Perspectives article, are inadequate for providing a complete and accurate assessment of the prevalence of diabetes mellitus. International consensus on uniform standards and criteria for reporting national data on diabetes mellitus prevalence as well as for common complications of diabetes mellitus and mortality need to be developed.

Lifetime risk of diabetes among First Nations and non-First Nations people

BACKGROUND

Lifetime risk is a relatively straightforward measure used to communicate disease burden, representing the cumulative risk of an outcome during the remainder of an individual's life starting from a disease-free index age. We estimated the lifetime risk of diabetes among men and women in both First Nations and non-First Nations populations using a cohort of adults in a single Canadian province.

METHODS

We used a population-based cohort consisting of Alberta residents from 1997 to 2008 who were free of diabetes at cohort entry to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes among First Nations and non-First Nations people. We calculated age-specific incidence rates with the person-year method in 5-year bands. We estimated the sex- and index-age-specific lifetime risk of incident diabetes, after adjusting for the competing risk of death.

RESULTS

The cohort included 70 631 First Nations and 2 732 214 non-First Nations people aged 18 years or older. The lifetime risk of diabetes at 20 years of age was 75.6% among men and 87.3% among women in the First Nations group, as compared with 55.6% among men and 46.5% among women in the non-First Nations group. The risk was higher among First Nations people than among non-First Nations people for all index ages and for both sexes. Among non-First Nations people, men had a higher lifetime risk of diabetes than women across all index ages. In contrast, among First Nations people, women had a higher lifetime risk than men across all index ages.

INTERPRETATION

About 8 in 10 First Nations people and about 5 in 10 non-First Nations people of young age will develop diabetes in their remaining lifetime. These population-based estimates may help health care planners and decision-makers set priorities and increase public awareness and interest in the prevention of diabetes.

Study methodology and diabetes control in patients from the non-English diabetes management project (NEDMP)

BACKGROUND

To describe the clinical characteristics of non-English speaking patients from the Diabetes Management Project (NEDMP), and compare their diabetes management and severity of diabetic retinopathy (DR) with the English-speaking DMP sample (EDMP).

DESIGN

A prospective study was conducted on non-English speaking adults with diabetes who attended the Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

136 (90.1%) non-English speaking adults were assessed, with a mean age of 72.2 years (range: 50-88 years); 74 (54.4%) were male.

METHODS

Participants completed interviewer-administered questionnaires and underwent visual acuity, fundus photography, optical coherence tomography, biochemistry and anthropometric measurements. The EDMP assessed 609 patients in 2009 using a similar protocol.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Type and duration of diabetes, diabetes control and diabetic retinopathy.

RESULTS

A total of 127 (93.4%) and 8 (5.9%) participants reported having type 2 and type 1 diabetes, respectively, with a median (IQR) duration of 17 (14) years. The proportion of patients with poor diabetes control (HbA1c ≥ 7%) in the NEDMP was similar to the EDMP (64.0% and 68.2%, respectively; P = 0.411). A significantly higher proportion of patients with DR in the NEDMP were found to have poor diabetes control (HbA1c ≥ 7%) compared to those without DR (80.9% vs. 50.0%, P = 0.003). Almost two-thirds of NEDMP patients (74/118) had DR and 23% (27/115) had diabetic macular edema. The prevalence of DR was similar between the NEDMP and EDMP studies, ranging from 25-30% and 28-29%.

CONCLUSIONS

The clinical characteristics, diabetes control, and DR severity of English and non-English-speaking patients were similar. The high proportion of poor diabetes management in non-English speaking patients with DR suggests educational and behavioural interventions to improve glycaemic control are warranted.

Burden of diabetes in Australia: life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy in adults with diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this work was to estimate the life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) for adults with and without diabetes.

METHODS

The Chiang method and the adapted Sullivan method were used to estimate LE and DFLE by age and sex. Mortality data in 2011 were available from the National Diabetes Services Scheme for diabetes and from standard national mortality datasets for the general population. Data on prevalence of disability and severe or profound core activity limitation were derived from the 2012 Australian Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDAC). The definitions of disability used in the SDAC followed the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. Data on diabetes prevalence were derived from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study.

RESULTS

The estimated LE and DFLE (with 95% uncertainty interval [UI]) at age 50 years were 30.2 (30.0, 30.4) and 12.7 (11.5, 13.7) years, respectively, for men with diabetes, and the estimates were 33.9 (33.6, 34.1) and 13.1 (12.3, 13.9) years, respectively, for women with diabetes. The estimated loss of LE associated with diabetes at age 50 years was 3.2 (3.0, 3.4) years for men and 3.1 (2.9, 3.4) years for women, as compared with their counterparts without diabetes. The corresponding estimated loss of DFLE was 8.2 (6.7, 9.7) years for men and 9.1 (7.9, 10.4) years for women. Women with diabetes spent a greater number of absolute years and a greater proportion of their life with disability as compared with men with diabetes and women without diabetes. The gains in LE and DFLE across the whole population at age 50 years after hypothetically eliminating diagnosed diabetes were 0.6 (0.5, 0.6) years and 1.8 (1.0, 2.8) years.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

In adults, diabetes results in a modest reduction in LE and a substantial reduction in DFLE. Efforts to identify the specific causes of disability and effective interventions are needed.

Diabetic kidney disease in Australia: current burden and future projections

Diabetes mellitus is now the most common cause of new cases of end-stage kidney disease treated with kidney replacement therapy in Australia. In addition to the approximately 5000 Australians receiving maintenance dialysis or living with a kidney transplant as a consequence of diabetes, many die from untreated end-stage kidney disease due to diabetes (DM-ESKD) each year. For every Australian receiving renal replacement therapy due to diabetes, at least 50 others have earlier stages of diabetic kidney disease (DKD). Based on projected increases in type 2 diabetes prevalence, the size of this underlying population with DKD will potentially exceed half a million by 2025. In addition to the risk of developing DM-ESKD, this population is at increased risk of premature cardiovascular morbidity and all-cause mortality. Higher rates of hospitalization, use of specialist services and prescription drugs mean that those with DKD also incur significantly greater health care costs compared with those with diabetes or chronic kidney disease alone. However, in contrast to the increasing prevalence of diabetes and early stages of DKD, recent trends in the incidence of DM-ESKD suggest that better management in the earlier stages of DKD has been successful in slowing rates of disease progression. Simultaneous improvements in use of renin-angiotensin inhibitors and improved glycaemic and blood pressure control are likely to be largely responsible for this trend. Primary prevention, maximizing early detection of DKD and optimal management of diabetes and kidney disease hold great potential to attenuate the future health burden attributable to DKD in Australia.

Diabetes Incidence and Glucose Tolerance after Termination of Pioglitazone Therapy: Results from ACT NOW

CONTEXT

Thiazolidinediones have proven efficacy in preventing diabetes in high-risk individuals. However, the effect of thiazolidinediones on glucose tolerance after cessation of therapy is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effect of pioglitazone (PIO) on incidence of diabetes after discontinuing therapy in ACT NOW. Design, Settings and Patients: Two-hundred ninety-three subjects (placebo [PLAC], n = 138; PIO, n = 152) completed a median followup of 11.7 mo after study medication was stopped.

RESULTS

Diabetes developed in 138 (12.3%) of PLAC vs 17 of 152 PIO patients (11.2%; P = not significant, PIO vs PLAC). However, the cumulative incidence of diabetes from start of study medication to end of washout period remained significantly lower in PIO vs PLAC (10.7 vs 22.3%; P < .005). After therapy was discontinued, 23.0% (35/152) of PIO-treated patients remained normal-glucose tolerant (NGT) vs 13.8% (19/138) of PLAC-treated patients (P = .04). Insulin secretion/insulin resistance index (I0-120/G0-120 × Matsuda index) was markedly lower in subjects with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) who converted to diabetes during followup vs those who remained IGT or NGT. The decline in-cell function (insulin secretion/insulin resistance index) was similar in subjects with IGT who developed diabetes, irrespective of whether they were treated with PIO or PLAC.

CONCLUSIONS

1) The protective effect of PIO on incidence of diabetes attenuates after discontinuation of therapy, 2) cumulative incidence of diabetes in individuals exposed to PIO remained significantly (56%) lower than PLAC and a greater number of PIO-treated individuals maintained NGT after median followup of 11.4 mo, and 3) low insulin secretion/insulin resistance index is a strong predictor of future diabetes following PIO discontinuation.

‘Are you sure you’re going to have another one of those?’: A qualitative analysis of the social control and social support models in type 2 diabetes

While there is evidence that spouses can impact the self-management of adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus, less is known about the influence of the wider social network. This qualitative study explored the perceived impact of the family as well as friends and work colleagues on type 2 diabetes mellitus self-management. A total of 25 adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus participated in semi-structured interviews regarding their social experiences of living with diabetes. Deductive thematic analysis was applied to the data. Pre-existing themes of health-related social control and social support were identified in the wider social network, with additional themes of non-involvement and unintentional undermining also emerging.

Impact of socioeconomic and risk factors on cardiovascular disease and type II diabetes in Australia: comparison of results from longitudinal and cross-sectional designs

OBJECTIVE

Existing large-scale studies do not take into account comorbidity or control for selection and endogeneity biases. This study addresses these shortcomings.

PARTICIPANTS

We use information on individuals aged between 35 and 70 years from a nationally representative longitudinal survey conducted in Australia between 2001 and 2013. Participants were approached annually, and updates on their characteristics, including health status, were ascertained through self-reporting.

METHOD

We develop three different analytical designs. The first model is a cross-sectional analysis against which our improved models are compared. In the second model, we follow the same approach but control for prior health conditions. The last preferred model additionally adjusts for characteristics and risk profile of respondents prior to onset of conditions. It also allows for comorbidity and controls for selection bias.

RESULTS

Once comorbidity and changes over time in the participant's characteristics are controlled for, body mass index (BMI), alcohol consumption and physical activity exhibit a stronger impact than in the models without these controls. A unit increase in BMI increases the risk of developing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) condition within 2 years by 1.3 percentage points (β=0.11, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.16) and regular alcohol intake increases the risk of CVD by 3.0 percentage points (β=0.24, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.39). Both factors lose significance without proper control for endogenous behavioural change. We also note that frequent physical activity reduces the risk of developing diabetes by 0.9 percentage point (β=-0.40, 95% CI -0.72 to -0.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Our result shows a greater importance of certain lifestyle and risk factors than was previously suggested.

Prevalence of disability in Australian elderly: Impact of trends in obesity and diabetes

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to estimate the impact of past and future changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence in mid-life on disability prevalence for adult Australians.

METHODS

We analysed data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab) including participants aged 45-64years, disability-free at baseline (1999/2000) with disability information at follow-up (2011/12) (n=2107). We used coefficients from multinomial logistic regression to predict 10-year probabilities of disability and death from baseline predictors (age, sex, obesity, smoking, diabetes and hypertension). We estimated the prevalence of disability attributable to past (1980) and expected future (2025) changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence using the life table approach.

RESULTS

We estimated that the prevalence of disability for those aged between 55 and 74years would have been 1697 cases per 100,000 persons less in 2010 (10.3% less) if the rates of obesity and diabetes observed in 2000 had been as low as the levels observed in 1980. However, if instead the prevalence of obesity and diabetes had been as high as the levels expected in 2025, then the prevalence of disability would have been an additional 2173 per 100,000 persons (an additional 13.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate, for the first time, a substantial potential impact of obesity and diabetes trends on disability amongst those aged 55-74years. In Australian adults by 2025 we estimate that around 26% of disability cases would have been avoidable if there had been no change in obesity and diabetes prevalence since 1980. A similar impact is likely around the world in developed countries.

Lifetime risk of developing impaired glucose metabolism and eventual progression from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Data are scarce for the lifetime risk of developing impaired glucose metabolism, including prediabetes, as are data for the risk of eventual progression from prediabetes to diabetes and for initiation of insulin treatment in previously untreated patients with diabetes. We aimed to calculate the lifetime risk of the full range of glucose impairments, from normoglycaemia to prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, and eventual insulin use.

METHODS

In this prospective population-based cohort analysis, we used data from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We identified diagnostic events by use of general practitioners' records, hospital discharge letters, pharmacy dispensing data, and serum fasting glucose measurements taken at the study centre (Rotterdam, Netherlands) visits. Normoglycaemia, prediabetes, and diabetes were defined on the basis of WHO criteria for fasting glucose (normoglycaemia: ≤6·0 mmol/L; prediabetes: >6·0 mmol/L and <7·0 mmol/L; and diabetes ≥7·0 mmol/L or use of glucose-lowering drug). We calculated lifetime risk using a modified version of survival analysis adjusted for the competing risk of death. We also estimated the lifetime risk of progression from prediabetes to overt diabetes and from diabetes free of insulin treatment to insulin use. Additionally, we calculated years lived with healthy glucose metabolism.

FINDINGS

We used data from 10 050 participants from the Rotterdam Study. During a follow-up of up to 14·7 years (between April 1, 1997, and Jan 1, 2012), 1148 participants developed prediabetes, 828 developed diabetes, and 237 started insulin treatment. At age 45 years, the remaining lifetime risk was 48·7% (95% CI 46·2-51·3) for prediabetes, 31·3% (29·3-33·3) for diabetes, and 9·1% (7·8-10·3) for insulin use. In individuals aged 45 years, the lifetime risk to progress from prediabetes to diabetes was 74·0% (95% CI 67·6-80·5), and 49·1% (38·2-60·0) of the individuals with overt diabetes at this age started insulin treatment. The lifetime risks attenuated with advancing age, but increased with increasing BMI and waist circumference. On average, individuals with severe obesity lived 10 fewer years without glucose impairment compared with normal-weight individuals.

INTERPRETATION

Impaired glucose metabolism is a substantial burden on population health, and our findings emphasise the need for more effective prevention strategies, which should be implemented as soon in a person's life as possible. The substantial lifetime risk of prediabetes and diabetes in lean individuals also supports risk factor control in non-obese individuals.

FUNDING

Erasmus MC and Erasmus University Rotterdam; Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research; Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development; Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly; Netherlands Genomics Initiative; Netherlands Ministry of Education, Culture and Science; Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports; European Commission; and Municipality of Rotterdam.

A workplace health promotion application of the Precede-Proceed model in a regional and remote mining company in Whyalla, South Australia

Purpose

– Workplace health promotion enables the dissemination of health-related information to a large portion of society and provides a vehicle for translating results of efficacy studies to effective lifestyle interventions under less controlled real-world conditions. To achieve effectiveness there needs to be a systematic approach to the design, implementation, and evaluation of workplace health promotion interventions. The purpose of this paper is to describe the development of a workplace programme in a mining and steel making town in regional South Australia.

Design/methodology/approach

– The Precede-Proceed model (PPM) was used as a framework to design the development, implementation, and evaluation of the programme.

Findings

– Quality of life issues and antecedents of modifiable behavioural and environmental factors to be targeted by interventions were identified. Relevant socio-behavioural theories were used to guide intervention development and evaluation. An intervention programme was planned to enable the delivery of educational and skills-development strategies by peers within structured organisational work units.

Originality/value

– This research utilises the PPM to develop, implement, and evaluate intervention strategies targeting the development of diabetes and cardiometabolic risk in a remotely located workplace population. Novel to this approach is the utilisation of the entire PPM in the research; the multiple baseline, interrupted time series design of the study; and its application in a workplace environment noted for increased health risk factors, within a community at high risk of development of type 2 diabetes.

Polyunsaturated fatty acid intake and risk of cardiovascular mortality in a low fish-consuming population: a prospective cohort analysis

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) intake (n-6 and n-3) and mortality in a population-based sample with a low fish intake.

METHODS

Cox regression was used to examine the relationships between dietary PUFA intake and all-cause or CVD mortality in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab) cohort, a population of 11,247 Australians aged ≥25 years recruited in 1999/2000 and followed until 2012. Demographic, lifestyle and behavioural information were collected by questionnaire and fasting blood tests undertaken. Dietary intake was collected by a 121-item food frequency questionnaire. Vital status and causes of death were collected by death registry linkage.

RESULTS

Those in the highest quintile of n-6 PUFA intake had lower risk of CVD mortality (HR 0.57, 95 % CI 0.38-0.86) after age and sex adjustment, but this failed to retain significance after further risk factor adjustment. Consumption of ≥1 serves/week of non-fried fish was associated with reduced risk of CVD mortality (HR 0.64, 95 % CI 0.45-0.91, p = 0.013) compared to those eating less than 1 serve/month, after sex and age adjustment, but did not retain significance after further adjustment. However, long-chain n-3 intake was not associated with CVD mortality, and those in the highest quintile of n-3 intake had a higher risk of all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings do not support previous suggestions that n-6 PUFA have adverse effects on CVD risk. Greater intake of non-fried fish was associated with lower risk of CVD mortality, but those with the highest total n-3 intake were at slightly increased risk of all-cause mortality.