Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon

The stomatal response to vapor pressure deficit drives the apparent temperature response of photosynthesis in tropical forests

As temperature rises, net carbon uptake in tropical forests decreases, but the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. High temperatures can limit photosynthesis directly, for example by reducing biochemical capacity, or indirectly through rising vapor pressure deficit (VPD) causing stomatal closure. To explore the independent effects of temperature and VPD on photosynthesis we analyzed photosynthesis data from the upper canopies of two tropical forests in Panama with Generalized Additive Models. Stomatal conductance and photosynthesis consistently decreased with increasing VPD, and statistically accounting for VPD increased the optimum temperature of photosynthesis (Topt) of trees from a VPD-confounded apparent Topt of c. 30-31°C to a VPD-independent Topt of c. 33-36°C, while for lianas no VPD-independent Topt was reached within the measured temperature range. Trees and lianas exhibited similar temperature and VPD responses in both forests, despite 1500 mm difference in mean annual rainfall. Over ecologically relevant temperature ranges, photosynthesis in tropical forests is largely limited by indirect effects of warming, through changes in VPD, not by direct warming effects of photosynthetic biochemistry. Failing to account for VPD when determining Topt misattributes the underlying causal mechanism and thereby hinders the advancement of mechanistic understanding of global warming effects on tropical forest carbon dynamics.

The mobilization and transport of newly fixed carbon are driven by plant water use in an experimental rainforest under drought

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) are building blocks for biomass and fuel metabolic processes. However, it remains unclear how tropical forests mobilize, export, and transport NSCs to cope with extreme droughts. We combined drought manipulation and ecosystem 13CO2 pulse-labeling in an enclosed rainforest at Biosphere 2, assessed changes in NSCs, and traced newly assimilated carbohydrates in plant species with diverse hydraulic traits and canopy positions. We show that drought caused a depletion of leaf starch reserves and slowed export and transport of newly assimilated carbohydrates below ground. Drought effects were more pronounced in conservative canopy trees with limited supply of new photosynthates and relatively constant water status than in those with continual photosynthetic supply and deteriorated water status. We provide experimental evidence that local utilization, export, and transport of newly assimilated carbon are closely coupled with plant water use in canopy trees. We highlight that these processes are critical for understanding and predicting tree resistance and ecosystem fluxes in tropical forest under drought.

Flower production decreases with warmer and more humid atmospheric conditions in a western Amazonian forest

Climate models predict that everwet western Amazonian forests will face warmer and wetter atmospheric conditions, and increased cloud cover. It remains unclear how these changes will impact plant reproductive performance, such as flowering, which plays a central role in sustaining food webs and forest regeneration. Warmer and wetter nights may cause reduced flower production, via increased dark respiration rates or alteration in the reliability of flowering cue-based processes. Additionally, more persistent cloud cover should reduce the amounts of solar irradiance, which could limit flower production. We tested whether interannual variation in flower production has changed in response to fluctuations in irradiance, rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity over 18 yrs in an everwet forest in Ecuador. Analyses of 184 plant species showed that flower production declined as nighttime temperature and relative humidity increased, suggesting that warmer nights and greater atmospheric water saturation negatively impacted reproduction. Species varied in their flowering responses to climatic variables but this variation was not explained by life form or phylogeny. Our results shed light on how plant communities will respond to climatic changes in this everwet region, in which the impacts of these changes have been poorly studied compared with more seasonal Neotropical areas.

A novel framework for investigating the mechanisms of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the evolution of hydrological drought

Climate change and anthropogenic activity are the primary drivers of water cycle changes. Hydrological droughts are caused by a shortage of surface and/or groundwater resources caused by climate change and/or anthropogenic activity. Existing hydrological models have primarily focused on simulating natural water cycle processes, while limited research has investigated the influence of anthropogenic activities on water cycle processes. This study proposes a novel framework that integrates a distributed hydrological model and an attribution analysis method to assess the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on hydrological drought The distributed dualistic water cycle model was applied to the Fuhe River Basin (FRB), and it generated a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient > 0.85 with a relative error of <5 %. Excluding the year with extreme drought conditions, our analysis revealed that climate change negatively impacted the average drought duration (-105.5 %) and intensity (-23.6 %) because of increasing precipitation. However, anthropogenic activities continued to contribute positively to the drought, accounting for 5.5 % and 123.6 % of the average drought duration and intensity, respectively, because of increased water consumption. When accounting for extreme drought years, our results suggested that climate change has contributed negatively to the average duration of drought (-113.2 %) but positively to its intensity (7.8 %). Further, we found that anthropogenic activities contributed positively to both the average drought duration and intensity (13.2 % and 92.2 %, respectively). While climate change can potentially mitigate hydrological drought in the FRB by boosting precipitation levels, its overall effect may exacerbate drought through the amplification of extreme climate events resulting from global climate change. Therefore, greater attention should be paid to the effects of extreme drought.

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

Tropical forests face increasing climate risk1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, [Formula: see text]50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk3-5, little is known about how these vary across Earth's largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters [Formula: see text]50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both [Formula: see text]50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth-mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.

Monitoring land cover changes and droughts using statistical analysis and multi-sensor remote sensing data

Climate change is of paramount importance for ecosystems, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The major aim of the current study is to monitor vegetation and land use changes, and run drought assessment using field and satellite data. The main precipitation proportions in the studied region are influenced by the Westerlies, meaning that any variations in these precipitation systems significantly impact the region. The utilized data entailed MODIS images for 16- and 8-day intervals between 2000 and 2013, TM and OLI sensor images recorded in 1985 and 2013, precipitation network data of TRMM satellite between 2000 and 2013, and synoptic data 32-year period. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used to monitor temporal changes in meteorological station data in annual and seasonal scales. The results indicated that there was a downward trend in 50% of the meteorological stations in the annual scale. This falling trend was statistically significant at the level of 95%. At the end, drought was assessed using PCI, APCI, VSWI, and NVSWI. The results showed that vegetation, forest, pasture, and agriculture areas recorded the strongest correlations with initial precipitation at the beginning of the study. Based on interactions among various factors influencing vegetation indices, reduction in green vegetation, especially the area of oak forests in the studied period, is around 95,744 hectares, which is attributed to lower precipitation rate. Increasing of agricultural land and water zones during the studied years is the result of human management and depends on how surface and underground water resources are exploited.

Amazon drought resilience - emerging results point to new empirical needs

This article is a Commentary on Costa et al., 237: 714–733.

The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation

Approximately 2.5 × 10⁶ square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year^-1), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year^-1). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. Policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest.

Tissue distribution of appetite regulation genes and their expression in the Amazon fish Colossoma macropomum exposed to climate change scenario

Climate change leads to an increase in water acidification and temperature, two environmental factors that can change fish appetite and metabolism, affecting fish population in both wild and aquaculture facilities. Therefore, our study tested if climate change affects gene expression levels of two appetite-regulating peptides - Neuropeptide Y (NPY) and Cholecystokinin (CCK) - in the brain of tambaqui, Colossoma macropomum. Additionally, we show the distribution of these genes throughout the body. Amino acid sequences of CCK and NPY of tambaqui showed high similarity with other Characiformes, with the closely related order Cypriniformes, and even with the more distantly related order Salmoniformes. High apparent levels of both peptides were expressed in all brain areas, while expression levels varied for peripheral tissues. NPY and CCK mRNA were detected in all peripheral tissues but cephalic kidney for CCK. As for the effects of climate change, we found that fish exposed to extreme climate scenario (800 ppm CO2 and 4.5 °C above current climate scenario) had higher expression levels of NPY and lower expression levels of CCK in the telencephalon. The extreme climate scenario also increased food intake, weight gain, and body length. These results suggest that the telencephalon is probably responsible for sensing the metabolic status of the organism and controlling feeding behavior through NPY, likely an orexigenic hormone, and CCK, which may act as an anorexigenic hormone. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing the effects of climate change on the endocrine regulation of appetite in an endemic and economically important fish from the Amazon. Our results can help us predict the impact of climate change on both wild and farmed fish populations, thus contributing to the elaboration of future policies regarding their conservation and sustainable use.

Climatic legacy effects on the drought response of the Amazon rainforest

Extreme precipitation and drought events are predicted to become more intense and more frequent over the Amazon rainforest. Because changes in forest dynamics could prompt strong feedback loops to the global climate, it is of crucial importance to gain insight into the response of tropical forests to these recurring extreme climatic events. Here, we evaluated the Amazon forest stability (resistance and resilience) to drought in the context of past dry and wet climatic events using MODIS EVI satellite imagery and cumulative water deficit anomalies. We observed large spatial differences in the occurrence of extreme climatic events from 1980 to 2019, with an increase in drought frequency in the central and northern Amazon and drought intensity in the southern Amazon basin. An increasing trend in the occurrence of wet events was found in the western, southern, and eastern Amazon. Furthermore, we found significant legacy effects of previous climatic events on the forest drought response. An extreme drought closely preceding another drought decreased forest resilience, whereas the occurrence of a recent drier-than-usual event also decreased the forest resistance to later droughts. Both wetter-than-usual and extreme wet events preceding an extreme drought increased the resistance of the forest, and with similar effects sizes as dry events, indicating that wet and dry events have similarly sized legacy effects on the drought response of tropical forests. Our results indicate that the predicted increase in drought frequency and intensity can have negative consequences for the functioning of the Amazon forest. However, more frequent wet periods in combination with these droughts could counteract their negative impact. Finally, we also found that more stable forests according to the alternative stable states theory are also more resistant and resilient to individual droughts, showing a positive relationship between the equilibrium and non-equilibrium stability dynamics.

Drought-heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review

Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental and socioeconomic sectors. These threats are of particular importance in low-income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress in the understanding of CDHW patterns in Brazil while providing insights about the impacts on fire occurrence and public health. Evidence is mounting that heatwaves are becoming increasingly linked with droughts in northeastern and southeastern Brazil, the Amazonia, and the Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind CDHW events, such as the soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at a synergy between CDHW events and high fire activity in the country over the last decades, with the most recent example being the catastrophic 2020 fires in the Pantanal. Moreover, we show that HWs were responsible for increasing mortality and preterm births during record-breaking droughts in southeastern Brazil. This work paves the way for a more in-depth understanding on CDHW events and their impacts, which is crucial to enhance the adaptive capacity of different Brazilian sectors.

Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest

Tipping elements are nonlinear subsystems of the Earth system that have the potential to abruptly shift to another state if environmental change occurs close to a critical threshold with large consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Among these tipping elements may be the Amazon rainforest, which has been undergoing intensive anthropogenic activities and increasingly frequent droughts. Here, we assess how extreme deviations from climatological rainfall regimes may cause local forest collapse that cascades through the coupled forest-climate system. We develop a conceptual dynamic network model to isolate and uncover the role of atmospheric moisture recycling in such tipping cascades. We account for heterogeneity in critical thresholds of the forest caused by adaptation to local climatic conditions. Our results reveal that, despite this adaptation, a future climate characterized by permanent drought conditions could trigger a transition to an open canopy state particularly in the southern Amazon. The loss of atmospheric moisture recycling contributes to one-third of the tipping events. Thus, by exceeding local thresholds in forest adaptive capacity, local climate change impacts may propagate to other regions of the Amazon basin, causing a risk of forest shifts even in regions where critical thresholds have not been crossed locally.

Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late-century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty-first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California’s coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California’s Central Valley.

Observed Changes in Crop Yield Associated with Droughts Propagation via Natural and Human-Disturbed Agro-Ecological Zones of Pakistan

Pakistan’s agriculture and food production account for 27% of its overall gross domestic product (GDP). Despite ongoing advances in technology and crop varieties, an imbalance between water availability and demand, combined with robust shifts in drought propagation has negatively affected the agro-ecosystem and environmental conditions. In this study, we examined hydro-meteorological drought propagation and its associated impacts on crop yield across natural and human-disturbed agro-ecological zones (AEZs) in Pakistan. Multisource datasets (i.e., ground observations, reanalysis, and satellites) were used to characterize the most extensive, intense drought episodes from 1981 to 2018 based on the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), standardized streamflow index (SSFI), standardized surface water storage index (SSWSI), and standardized groundwater storage index (SGWI). The most common and intense drought episodes characterized by SPEI, SSFI, SSWSI, and SGWI were observed in years 1981–1983, 2000–2003, 2005, and 2018. SPEI yielded the maximum number of drought months (90) followed by SSFI (85), SSWSI (75), and SGWI (35). Droughts were frequently longer and had a slower termination rate in the human-disturbed AEZs (e.g., North Irrigated Plain and South Irrigated Plain) compared to natural zones (e.g., Wet Mountains and Northern Dry Mountains). The historical droughts are likely caused by the anomalous large-scale patterns of geopotential height, near-surface air temperature, total precipitation, and prevailing soil moisture conditions. The negative values (<−2) of standardized drought severity index (DSI) observed during the drought episodes (1988, 2000, and 2002) indicated a decline in vegetation growth and yield of major crops such as sugarcane, maize, wheat, cotton, and rice. A large number of low-yield years (SYRI ≤ −1.5) were recorded for sugarcane and maize (10 years), followed by rice (9 years), wheat (8 years), and cotton (6 years). Maximum crop yield reductions relative to the historic mean (1981–2017) were recorded in 1983 (38% for cotton), 1985 (51% for maize), 1999 (15% for wheat), 2000 (29% for cotton), 2001 (37% for rice), 2002 (21% for rice), and 2004 (32% for maize). The percentage yield losses associated with shifts in SSFI and SSWSI were greater than those in SPEI, likely due to longer drought termination duration and a slower termination rate in the human-disturbed AEZs. The study’s findings will assist policymakers to adopt sustainable agricultural and water management practices, and make climate change adaptation plans to mitigate drought impacts in the study region.

Tropical methane emissions explain large fraction of recent changes in global atmospheric methane growth rate

Large variations in the growth of atmospheric methane, a prominent greenhouse gas, are driven by a diverse range of anthropogenic and natural emissions and by loss from oxidation by the hydroxyl radical. We used a decade-long dataset (2010–2019) of satellite observations of methane to show that tropical terrestrial emissions explain more than 80% of the observed changes in the global atmospheric methane growth rate over this period. Using correlative meteorological analyses, we show strong seasonal correlations (r = 0.6–0.8) between large-scale changes in sea surface temperature over the tropical oceans and regional variations in methane emissions (via changes in rainfall and temperature) over tropical South America and tropical Africa. Existing predictive skill for sea surface temperature variations could therefore be used to help forecast variations in global atmospheric methane.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas with emissions that are challenging to constrain. Here the authors use 10 years of satellite observations and show tropical terrestrial emissions account for 80% of observed global methane increases.

Forest fragmentation impacts the seasonality of Amazonian evergreen canopies

Predictions of the magnitude and timing of leaf phenology in Amazonian forests remain highly controversial. Here, we use terrestrial LiDAR surveys every two weeks spanning wet and dry seasons in Central Amazonia to show that plant phenology varies strongly across vertical strata in old-growth forests, but is sensitive to disturbances arising from forest fragmentation. In combination with continuous microclimate measurements, we find that when maximum daily temperatures reached 35 °C in the latter part of the dry season, the upper canopy of large trees in undisturbed forests lost plant material. In contrast, the understory greened up with increased light availability driven by the upper canopy loss, alongside increases in solar radiation, even during periods of drier soil and atmospheric conditions. However, persistently high temperatures in forest edges exacerbated the upper canopy losses of large trees throughout the dry season, whereas the understory in these light-rich environments was less dependent on the altered upper canopy structure. Our findings reveal a strong influence of edge effects on phenological controls in wet forests of Central Amazonia.

Even evergreen tropical forests can have seasonal dynamics, which may be sensitive to disturbance. Here, the authors combine high-resolution remote sensing observations and microclimate data to show that forest fragmentation impacts canopy phenology dynamics in the Amazon forest.

Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models

The ongoing global warming has caused unprecedented changes in the climate system, leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate extremes. This study uses the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data to investigate projected changes in drought events over East Africa (EA) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-4.0, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 data are bias-corrected using a quantile mapping method, with the Climatic Research Unit's precipitation dataset as reference. Drought is quantified using the standardized precipitation index and different measures of drought are estimated: drought duration, drought frequency, drought severity, and drought intensity. Evaluating the accuracy and reliability of historical data before and after bias correction demonstrates the importance of the approach. The overall distribution after bias correction depicts a close agreement with observation. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean demonstrate superiority over individual Global Circulation Models. Projected future changes show enhancement in precipitation over most parts of EA in the far future under different SSP scenarios. However, the arid and semi-arid regions are expected to receive less amount of precipitation, whereas the highlands and lake regions are expected to receive a larger amount of precipitation increase. Furthermore, the dry areas of EA are likely to experience more frequent drought events with longer duration, stronger intensity, and severity in the far future. Overall, this study identifies possible drought hotspots over EA, enabling early preparation for such events.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-022-05341-8.

Delayed effects of climate on vital rates lead to demographic divergence in Amazonian forest fragments

Deforestation often results in landscapes where remaining forest habitat is highly fragmented, with remnants of different sizes embedded in an often highly contrasting matrix. Local extinction of species from individual fragments is common, but the demographic mechanisms underlying these extinctions are poorly understood. It is often hypothesized that altered environmental conditions in fragments drive declines in reproduction, recruitment, or survivorship. The Amazon basin, in addition to experiencing continuing fragmentation, is experiencing climate change-related increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and unusually wet periods. Whether plant populations in tropical forest fragments are particularly susceptible to extremes in precipitation remains unclear. Most studies of plants in fragments are relatively short (1-6 years), focus on a single life-history stage, and often do not compare to populations in continuous forest. Even fewer studies consider delayed effects of climate on demographic vital rates despite the importance of delayed effects in studies that consider them. Using a decade of demographic and climate data from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the Central Amazon, we assess the effects of climate on populations of an understory herb (Heliconia acuminata, Heliconiaceae). We used distributed lag nonlinear models to understand the delayed effects of climate (measured as standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI) on survival, growth, and flowering. We detected delayed effects of climate up to 36 months. Extremes in SPEI in the previous year reduced survival, drought in the wet season 8-11 months prior to the February census increased growth, and drought two dry seasons prior increased flowering probability. Effects of extremes in precipitation on survival and growth were more pronounced in forest fragments compared to continuous forest. The complex delayed effects of climate and habitat fragmentation in our study point to the importance of long-term demography experiments in understanding the effects of anthropogenic change on plant populations.

Response of Amazonian forests to mid-Holocene drought: A model-data comparison

There is a major concern for the fate of Amazonia over the coming century in the face of anthropogenic climate change. A key area of uncertainty is the scale of rainforest dieback to be expected under a future, drier climate. In this study, we use the middle Holocene (ca. 6000 years before present) as an approximate analogue for a drier future, given that palaeoclimate data show much of Amazonia was significantly drier than present at this time. Here, we use an ensemble of climate and vegetation models to explore the sensitivity of Amazonian biomes to mid-Holocene climate change. For this, we employ three dynamic vegetation models (JULES, IBIS, and SDGVM) forced by the bias-corrected mid-Holocene climate simulations from seven models that participated in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3). These model outputs are compared with a multi-proxy palaeoecological dataset to gain a better understanding of where in Amazonia we have most confidence in the mid-Holocene vegetation simulations. A robust feature of all simulations and palaeodata is that the central Amazonian rainforest biome is unaffected by mid-Holocene drought. Greater divergence in mid-Holocene simulations exists in ecotonal eastern and southern Amazonia. Vegetation models driven with climate models that simulate a drier mid-Holocene (100-150 mm per year decrease) better capture the observed (palaeodata) tropical forest dieback in these areas. Based on the relationship between simulated rainfall decrease and vegetation change, we find indications that in southern Amazonia the rate of tropical forest dieback was ~125,000 km² per 100 mm rainfall decrease in the mid-Holocene. This provides a baseline sensitivity of tropical forests to drought for this region (without human-driven changes to greenhouse gases, fire, and deforestation). We highlight the need for more palaeoecological and palaeoclimate data across lowland Amazonia to constrain model responses.

Climate influence on the 2019 fires in Amazonia

Amazonia experienced unusually devastating fires in August 2019, leading to huge regional and global environmental and economic losses. The increase in fires has been largely attributed to anthropogenic deforestation, but anomalous climate conditions could also have contributed. This study investigates the climate influence on Amazonia fires in August 2019 and underlying mechanisms, based on statistical correlation and multiple linear regression analyses of 2001-2019 satellite-based fire products and multiple observational or reanalyzed climate datasets. Positive fire anomalies in August 2019 were mainly located in southern Amazonia. These anomalies were mainly driven by low precipitation and relative humidity, which increased fuel dryness and contributed to 38.9 ± 9.5% of the 2019 anomaly in pyrogenic carbon emissions over the southern Amazonia. The dry conditions were associated with southerly wind anomalies over southern Amazonia that suppressed the climatological southward transport of water vapor originating from the Atlantic. The southerly wind anomalies were caused by the combination of a Gill-type cyclonic response to the warmer North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), and enhancement of the Walker and Hadley circulations over South America due to the colder SST in the eastern Pacific, and a mid-latitude wave train triggered by the warmer condition in the western Indian Ocean. Our study highlights, for the first time, the important role of Indian Ocean SST for fires in Amazonia. It also reveals how cold SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific link the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the preceding December-January to the dry-season fires in Amazonia. Our findings can develop theoretical basis of global tropical SST-based fire prediction, and have potential to improve prediction skill of extreme fires in Amazonia and thus to take steps to mitigate their impacts which is urgency given that dry conditions led to the extreme fires are becoming common in Amazonia.

Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States

Major droughts in the United States have heavily impacted the hydrologic system, negatively effecting energy and food production. Improved understanding of historical drought is critical for accurate forecasts. Data from global climate models (GCMs), commonly used to assess drought, cannot effectively evaluate local patterns because of their low spatial scale. This research leverages downscaled (~4 km grid spacing) temperature and precipitation estimates from nine GCMs’ data under the business-as-usual scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) to examine drought patterns. Drought severity is estimated using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with the Thornthwaite evapotranspiration method. The specific objectives were (1) To reproduce historical (1966–2005) drought and calculate near-term to future (2011–2050) drought patterns over the conterminous USA. (2) To uncover the local variability of spatial drought patterns in California between 2012 and 2018 using a network-based approach. Our estimates of land proportions affected by drought agree with the known historical drought events of the mid-1960s, late 1970s to early 1980s, early 2000s, and between 2012 and 2015. Network analysis showed heterogeneity in spatial drought patterns in California, indicating local variability of drought occurrence. The high spatial scale at which the analysis was performed allowed us to uncover significant local differences in drought patterns. This is critical for highlighting possible weak systems that could inform adaptation strategies such as in the energy and agricultural sectors.

Ecosystem Productivity and Evapotranspiration Are Tightly Coupled in Loblolly Pine (Pinus taeda L.) Plantations along the Coastal Plain of the Southeastern U.S

Forest water use efficiency (WUE), the ratio of gross primary productivity (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET), is an important variable to understand the coupling between water and carbon cycles, and to assess resource use, ecosystem resilience, and commodity production. Here, we determined WUE for managed loblolly pine plantations over the course of a rotation on the coastal plain of North Carolina in the eastern U.S. We found that the forest annual GPP, ET, and WUE increased until age ten, which stabilized thereafter. WUE varied annually (2–44%), being higher at young plantation (YP, 3.12 ± 1.20 g C kg−1 H2O d−1) compared to a mature plantation (MP, 2.92 ± 0.45 g C kg−1 H2O d−1), with no distinct seasonal patterns. Stand age was strongly correlated with ET (R2 = 0.71) and GPP (R2 = 0.64). ET and GPP were tightly coupled (R2 = 0.86). Radiation and air temperature significantly affected GPP and ET (R2 = 0.71 − R2 = 0.82) at a monthly scale, but not WUE. Drought affected WUE (R2 = 0.35) more than ET (R2 = 0.25) or GPP (R2 = 0.07). A drought enhanced GPP in MP (19%) and YP (11%), but reduced ET 7% and 19% in MP and YP, respectively, resulting in a higher WUE (27–32%). Minor seasonal and interannual variation in forest WUE of MP (age > 10) suggested that forest functioning became stable as stands matured. We conclude that carbon and water cycles in loblolly pine plantations are tightly coupled, with different characteristics in different ages and hydrologic regimes. A stable WUE suggests that the pine ecosystem productivity can be readily predicted from ET and vice versa. The tradeoffs between water and carbon cycling should be recognized in forest management to achieve multiple ecosystem services (i.e., water supply and carbon sequestration).

Tracking the impacts of El Niño drought and fire in human-modified Amazonian forests

With humanity facing an unprecedented climate crisis, the conservation of tropical forests has never been so important - their vast terrestrial carbon stocks can be turned into emissions by climatic and human disturbances. However, the duration of these effects is poorly understood, and it is unclear whether impacts are amplified in forests with a history of previous human disturbance. Here, we focus on the Amazonian epicenter of the 2015-16 El Niño, a region that encompasses 1.2% of the Brazilian Amazon. We quantify, at high temporal resolution, the impacts of an extreme El Niño (EN) drought and extensive forest fires on plant mortality and carbon loss in undisturbed and human-modified forests. Mortality remained higher than pre-El Niño levels for 36 mo in EN-drought-affected forests and for 30 mo in EN-fire-affected forests. In EN-fire-affected forests, human disturbance significantly increased plant mortality. Our investigation of the ecological and physiological predictors of tree mortality showed that trees with lower wood density, bark thickness and leaf nitrogen content, as well as those that experienced greater fire intensity, were more vulnerable. Across the region, the 2015-16 El Niño led to the death of an estimated 2.5 ± 0.3 billion stems, resulting in emissions of 495 ± 94 Tg CO2 Three years after the El Niño, plant growth and recruitment had offset only 37% of emissions. Our results show that limiting forest disturbance will not only help maintain carbon stocks, but will also maximize the resistance of Amazonian forests if fires do occur.

Soil organic carbon cycling in response to simulated soil moisture variation under field conditions

The combination of extended dry periods and high intensity rainfall, common in the southeastern US, leads to greater variability in soil moisture and consequently increases uncertainty to microbial processes pertinent to soil carbon (C) mineralization. However, field-based findings on soil moisture sensitivity to soil C cycling are very limited. Therefore, a field experiment was conducted in 2018 and 2019 on a soybean (Glycine max L.) cropland in the southeastern US with three soil moisture treatments: drought (simulated using rainout-shelter from June to October in each year), rainfed (natural precipitation), and irrigated (irrigation and precipitation). Soil respiration was measured weekly from May to November in both years. Soil samples were collected multiple times each year from 0-5, 5-15, and 15-30 cm depths to determine microbial biomass C (MBC), extractable organic C (EOC), hydrolytic enzyme activities, and fungal abundance. The cumulative respiration under drought compared to other treatments was lower by 32% to 33% in 2018 and 38% to 45% in 2019. Increased MBC, EOC, and fungal abundance were observed under drought than other treatments. Specific enzyme activity indicated fewer metabolically active microbes under drought treatment compared to rainfed and irrigated treatments. Also, maintenance of enzyme pool was observed under drought condition. These results provide critical insights on microbial metabolism in response to soil moisture variation and how that influences different pools of soil C under field conditions.

Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity

Most climate change detection and attribution studies have focused on mean or extreme temperature or precipitation, neglecting to explore long-term changes in drought characteristics. Here we provide evidence that anthropogenic forcing has impacted interrelated meteorological drought characteristics. Using SPI and SPEI indices generated from an ensemble of 9 CMIP6 models (using 3 realizations per model), we show that the presence of anthropogenic forcing has increased the drought frequency, maximum drought duration, and maximum drought intensity experienced in large parts of the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Using individual greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol forcings, we also highlight that regional balances between the two major forcings have contributed to the drying patterns detected in our results. Overall, we provide a comprehensive characterization of the influence of anthropogenic forcing on drought characteristics, providing important perspectives on the role of forcings in driving changes in drought events.

Non-structural carbohydrates mediate seasonal water stress across Amazon forests

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) are major substrates for plant metabolism and have been implicated in mediating drought-induced tree mortality. Despite their significance, NSC dynamics in tropical forests remain little studied. We present leaf and branch NSC data for 82 Amazon canopy tree species in six sites spanning a broad precipitation gradient. During the wet season, total NSC (NSCT) concentrations in both organs were remarkably similar across communities. However, NSCT and its soluble sugar (SS) and starch components varied much more across sites during the dry season. Notably, the proportion of leaf NSCT in the form of SS (SS:NSCT) increased greatly in the dry season in almost all species in the driest sites, implying an important role of SS in mediating water stress in these sites. This adjustment of leaf NSC balance was not observed in tree species less-adapted to water deficit, even under exceptionally dry conditions. Thus, leaf carbon metabolism may help to explain floristic sorting across water availability gradients in Amazonia and enable better prediction of forest responses to future climate change.

Carbon loss and removal due to forest disturbance and regeneration in the Amazon

The forest carbon flux is the difference between the total carbon loss from deforestation, forest degradation, and natural disturbance and removal of atmospheric CO₂ due to photosynthetic activity. The Amazon rainforest accounts for approximately a quarter of global emissions from land use change, due in part to its' immense size, carbon storage, and recent history of land use change. Large area estimates of carbon exchange in forests are highly uncertain, however, which reflects the pervasive challenges in estimating carbon flux parameters, such as disturbance area and forest carbon pools. In this study, we use a new dataset with characterized uncertainty on deforestation, degradation, and natural disturbances in the Amazon Ecoregion to estimate carbon loss from disturbance and removals from regeneration at biennial intervals from 1996 to 2017. Using the gain-loss approach to estimating carbon flux in a Monte Carlo analysis we found that carbon loss from degradation and deforestation averaged 0.23 (±0.09) Pg C biennium^-1 and 0.34 (±0.16) Pg C biennium^-1, respectively. While deforestation contributed the most to carbon loss overall, there were two biennial periods in which degradation and natural disturbance resulted in more carbon loss. Regeneration partially offset these emissions, but our results show that loss is occurring much more rapidly than removal, resulting in a total net carbon loss of 4.86 to 5.32 Pg C over the study period. With the compounding effect of drought and fires in addition to continued deforestation it appears certain that forest disturbance in the Amazon will continue to be a significant factor in the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon

Biomass burning in the Brazilian Amazon is modulated by climate factors, such as droughts, and by human factors, such as deforestation, and land management activities. The increase in forest fires during drought years has led to the hypothesis that fire activity decoupled from deforestation during the twenty-first century. However, assessment of the hypothesis relied on an incorrect active fire dataset, which led to an underestimation of the decreasing trend in fire activity and to an inflated rank for year 2015 in terms of active fire counts. The recent correction of that database warrants a reassessment of the relationships between deforestation and fire. Contrasting with earlier findings, we show that the exacerbating effect of drought on fire season severity did not increase from 2003 to 2015 and that the record-breaking dry conditions of 2015 had the least impact on fire season of all twenty-first century severe droughts. Overall, our results for the same period used in the study that originated the fire-deforestation decoupling hypothesis (2003-2015) show that decoupling was clearly weaker than initially proposed. Extension of the study period up to 2019, and novel analysis of trends in fire types and fire intensity strengthened this conclusion. Therefore, the role of deforestation as a driver of fire activity in the region should not be underestimated and must be taken into account when implementing measures to protect the Amazon forest.

Plant traits controlling growth change in response to a drier climate

Plant traits are increasingly being used to improve prediction of plant function, including plant demography. However, the capability of plant traits to predict demographic rates remains uncertain, particularly in the context of trees experiencing a changing climate. Here we present data combining 17 plant traits associated with plant structure, metabolism and hydraulic status, with measurements of long-term mean, maximum and relative growth rates for 176 trees from the world's longest running tropical forest drought experiment. We demonstrate that plant traits can predict mean annual tree growth rates with moderate explanatory power. However, only combinations of traits associated more directly with plant functional processes, rather than more commonly employed traits like wood density or leaf mass per area, yield the power to predict growth. Critically, we observe a shift from growth being controlled by traits related to carbon cycling (assimilation and respiration) in well-watered trees, to traits relating to plant hydraulic stress in drought-stressed trees. We also demonstrate that even with a very comprehensive set of plant traits and growth data on large numbers of tropical trees, considerable uncertainty remains in directly interpreting the mechanisms through which traits influence performance in tropical forests.

The other side of droughts: wet extremes and topography as buffers of negative drought effects in an Amazonian forest

There is a consensus about negative impacts of droughts in Amazonia. Yet, extreme wet episodes, which are becoming as severe and frequent as droughts, are overlooked and their impacts remain poorly understood. Moreover, drought reports are mostly based on forests over a deep water table (DWT), which may be particularly sensitive to dry conditions. Based on demographic responses of 30 abundant tree species over the past two decades, in this study we analyzed the impacts of severe droughts but also of concurrent extreme wet periods, and how topographic affiliation (to shallow - SWTs - or deep - DWTs - water tables), together with species functional traits, mediated climate effects on trees. Dry and wet extremes decreased growth and increased tree mortality, but interactions of these climatic anomalies had the highest and most positive impact, mitigating the simple negative effects. Despite being more drought-tolerant, species in DWT forests were more negatively affected than hydraulically vulnerable species in SWT forests. Interaction of wet-dry extremes and SWT depth modulated tree responses to climate, providing buffers to droughts in Amazonia. As extreme wet periods are projected to increase and at least 36% of the Amazon comprises SWT forests, our results highlight the importance of considering these factors in order to improve our knowledge about forest resilience to climate change.

Tropical peatlands and their contribution to the global carbon cycle and climate change

Peatlands are carbon-rich ecosystems that cover 185-423 million hectares (Mha) of the earth's surface. The majority of the world's peatlands are in temperate and boreal zones, whereas tropical ones cover only a total area of 90-170 Mha. However, there are still considerable uncertainties in C stock estimates as well as a lack of information about depth, bulk density and carbon accumulation rates. The incomplete data are notable especially in tropical peatlands located in South America, which are estimated to have the largest area of peatlands in the tropical zone. This paper displays the current state of knowledge surrounding tropical peatlands and their biophysical characteristics, distribution and carbon stock, role in the global climate, the impacts of direct human disturbances on carbon accumulation rates and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on the new peat extension and depth data, we estimate that tropical peatlands store 152-288 Gt C, or about half of the global peatland emitted carbon. We discuss the knowledge gaps in research on distribution, depth, C stock and fluxes in these ecosystems which play an important role in the global carbon cycle and risk releasing large quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere (CO₂ and CH₄ ) when subjected to anthropogenic interferences (e.g., drainage and deforestation). Recent studies show that although climate change has an impact on the carbon fluxes of these ecosystems, the direct anthropogenic disturbance may play a greater role. The future of these systems as carbon sinks will depend on advancing current scientific knowledge and incorporating local understanding to support policies geared toward managing and conserving peatlands in vulnerable regions, such as the Amazon where recent records show increased forest fires and deforestation.

Environment and pathogens shape local and regional adaptations to climate change in the chocolate tree, Theobroma cacao L

Predicting the potential fate of a species in the face of climate change requires knowing the distribution of molecular adaptations across the geographic range of the species. In this work, we analysed 79 genomes of Theobroma cacao, an Amazonian tree known for the fruit from which chocolate is produced, to evaluate how local and regional molecular signatures of adaptation are distributed across the natural range of the species. We implemented novel techniques that incorporate summary statistics from multiple selection scans to infer selective sweeps. The majority of the molecular adaptations in the genome are not shared among populations. We show that ~71.5% of genes under selection also show significant associations with changes in environmental variables. Our results support the interpretation that these genes contribute to local adaptation of the populations in response to abiotic factors. We also found strong patterns of molecular adaptation in a diverse array of disease resistance genes (6.5% of selective sweeps), suggesting that differential adaptation to pathogens also contributes significantly to local adaptations. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that local selective pressures are more important than regional selective pressures in explaining adaptation across the range of a species.

Model-Based Estimation of Amazonian Forests Recovery Time after Drought and Fire Events

In recent decades, droughts, deforestation and wildfires have become recurring phenomena that have heavily affected both human activities and natural ecosystems in Amazonia. The time needed for an ecosystem to recover from carbon losses is a crucial metric to evaluate disturbance impacts on forests. However, little is known about the impacts of these disturbances, alone and synergistically, on forest recovery time and the resulting spatiotemporal patterns at the regional scale. In this study, we combined the 3-PG forest growth model, remote sensing and field derived equations, to map the Amazonia-wide (3 km of spatial resolution) impact and recovery time of aboveground biomass (AGB) after drought, fire and a combination of logging and fire. Our results indicate that AGB decreases by 4%, 19% and 46% in forests affected by drought, fire and logging + fire, respectively, with an average AGB recovery time of 27 years for drought, 44 years for burned and 63 years for logged + burned areas and with maximum values reaching 184 years in areas of high fire intensity. Our findings provide two major insights in the spatial and temporal patterns of drought and wildfire in the Amazon: (1) the recovery time of the forests takes longer in the southeastern part of the basin, and, (2) as droughts and wildfires become more frequent—since the intervals between the disturbances are getting shorter than the rate of forest regeneration—the long lasting damage they cause potentially results in a permanent and increasing carbon losses from these fragile ecosystems.

Drought effects on resource partition and conservation among leaf ontogenetic stages in epiphytic tank bromeliads

Studying the response to drought stress of keystone epiphytes such as tank bromeliads is essential to better understand their resistance capacity to future climate change. The objective was to test whether there is any variation in the carbon, water and nutrient status among different leaf ontogenetic stages in a bromeliad rosette subjected to a gradient of drought stress. We used a semi-controlled experiment consisting in a gradient of water shortage in Aechmea aquilega and Lutheria splendens. For each bromeliad and drought treatment, three leaves were collected based on their position in the rosette and several functional traits related to water and nutrient status, and carbon metabolism were measured. We found that water status traits (relative water content, leaf succulence, osmotic and midday water potentials) and carbon metabolism traits (carbon assimilation, maximum quantum yield of photosystem II, chlorophyll and starch contents) decreased with increasing drought stress, while leaf soluble sugars and carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus contents remained unchanged. The different leaf ontogenetic stages showed only marginal variations when subjected to a gradient of drought. Resources were not reallocated between different leaf ontogenetic stages but we found a reallocation of soluble sugars from leaf starch reserves to the root system. Both species were capable of metabolic and physiological adjustments in response to drought. Overall, this study advances our understanding of the resistance of bromeliads faced with increasing drought stress and paves the way for in-depth reflection on their strategies to cope with water shortage.

Impacts of soil water stress on the acclimated stomatal limitation of photosynthesis: Insights from stable carbon isotope data

Atmospheric aridity and drought both influence physiological function in plant leaves, but their relative contributions to changes in the ratio of leaf internal to ambient partial pressure of CO₂ (χ) - an index of adjustments in both stomatal conductance and photosynthetic rate to environmental conditions - are difficult to disentangle. Many stomatal models predicting χ include the influence of only one of these drivers. In particular, the least-cost optimality hypothesis considers the effect of atmospheric demand for water on χ but does not predict how soils with reduced water further influence χ, potentially leading to an overestimation of χ under dry conditions. Here, we use a large network of stable carbon isotope measurements in C₃ woody plants to examine the acclimated response of χ to soil water stress. We estimate the ratio of cost factors for carboxylation and transpiration (β) expected from the theory to explain the variance in the data, and investigate the responses of β (and thus χ) to soil water content and suction across seed plant groups, leaf phenological types and regions. Overall, β decreases linearly with soil drying, implying that the cost of water transport along the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum increases as water available in the soil decreases. However, despite contrasting hydraulic strategies, the stomatal responses of angiosperms and gymnosperms to soil water tend to converge, consistent with the optimality theory. The prediction of β as a simple, empirical function of soil water significantly improves χ predictions by up to 6.3 ± 2.3% (mean ± SD of adjusted-R² ) over 1980-2018 and results in a reduction of around 2% of mean χ values across the globe. Our results highlight the importance of soil water status on stomatal functions and plant water-use efficiency, and suggest the implementation of trait-based hydraulic functions into the model to account for soil water stress.

Vulnerability and hydraulic segmentations at the stem-leaf transition: coordination across Neotropical trees

Hydraulic segmentation at the stem-leaf transition predicts higher hydraulic resistance in leaves than in stems. Vulnerability segmentation, however, predicts lower embolism resistance in leaves. Both mechanisms should theoretically favour runaway embolism in leaves to preserve expensive organs such as stems, and should be tested for any potential coordination. We investigated the theoretical leaf-specific conductivity based on an anatomical approach to quantify the degree of hydraulic segmentation across 21 tropical rainforest tree species. Xylem resistance to embolism in stems (flow-centrifugation technique) and leaves (optical visualization method) was quantified to assess vulnerability segmentation. We found a pervasive hydraulic segmentation across species, but with a strong variability in the degree of segmentation. Despite a clear continuum in the degree of vulnerability segmentation, eight species showed a positive vulnerability segmentation (leaves less resistant to embolism than stems), whereas the remaining species studied exhibited a negative or no vulnerability segmentation. The degree of vulnerability segmentation was positively related to the degree of hydraulic segmentation, such that segmented species promote both mechanisms to hydraulically decouple leaf xylem from stem xylem. To what extent hydraulic and vulnerability segmentation determine drought resistance requires further integration of the leaf-stem transition at the whole-plant level, including both xylem and outer xylem tissue.

Effects of natural light and depth on rates of photo-oxidation of dissolved organic carbon in a major black-water river, the Rio Negro, Brazil

Systems rich in terrigenous dissolved organic carbon (DOC), like the Rio Negro, can contribute significant amounts of carbon dioxide back to the atmosphere and support important microbial communities. We investigated photo-oxidation in the Rio Negro: (1) the depth to which light causes complete photo-oxidation to CO₂ and changes in DOC structure, (2) the daily rate of change of absorbance indices, (3) the relationship between sub-surface rates of photo-oxidation to CO₂ and light exposure, (4) the areal rates of photo-oxidation, and (5) the stability of fluorophore signals. Experiments were run in an outdoor pool of Rio Negro water, under natural sunlight during the dry seasons of 2015 and 2018. In 2018, rates of complete photo-oxidation and changes in absorbance indices decayed exponentially, approaching their asymptotes between 9 and 15 cm depth. In 2015, direct absorbance indices ceased changing at 14 cm depth. Fluorescence of humic acid-like moieties continued to decrease, sometimes to 35-43 cm depth. This indicates that partial photo-oxidation of DOC, and thus interaction with the microbial community, occurs to greater depths than previously expected. Areal rates of CO₂ production were 28.8 and 39.3 mg C m^-2 d^-1 (two experiments, October 2018). Sub-surface (1.1 cm) rates were strongly related to light levels, reaching a maximum of 0.68 mg C l^-1 d^-1 in September. Complete photo-oxidation ceased below 29.6 mW cm^-2 d^-1 UV radiation, providing a daily baseline for observable production of CO₂. Absorbance indices changed by 9 to 14% d^-1 at high light levels, except for R_254/365 (4.4% d^-1). Fluorophore emission ranges were stable between 2014 and 2018, indicating that emissions can be compared across time and space. This study contributes to better estimates and understanding of photo-oxidation in tropical, black-water rivers, which will be useful for carbon modelling.

Amplified seasonal cycle in hydroclimate over the Amazon river basin and its plume region

The Amazon river basin receives ~2000 mm of precipitation annually and contributes ~17% of global river freshwater input to the oceans; its hydroclimatic variations can exert profound impacts on the marine ecosystem in the Amazon plume region (APR) and have potential far-reaching influences on hydroclimate over the tropical Atlantic. Here, we show that an amplified seasonal cycle of Amazonia precipitation, represented by the annual difference between maximum and minimum values, during the period 1979-2018, leads to enhanced seasonalities in both Amazon river discharge and APR ocean salinity. An atmospheric moisture budget analysis shows that these enhanced seasonal cycles are associated with similar amplifications in the atmospheric vertical and horizontal moisture advections. Hierarchical sensitivity experiments using global climate models quantify the relationships of these enhanced seasonalities. The results suggest that an intensified hydroclimatological cycle may develop in the Amazonia atmosphere-land-ocean coupled system, favouring more extreme terrestrial and marine conditions.

Impacts of Degradation on Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycling of the Amazon Tropical Forests

Selective logging, fragmentation, and understory fires directly degrade forest structure and composition. However, studies addressing the effects of forest degradation on carbon, water, and energy cycles are scarce. Here, we integrate field observations and high-resolution remote sensing from airborne lidar to provide realistic initial conditions to the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED-2.2) and investigate how disturbances from forest degradation affect gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and sensible heat flux (H). We used forest structural information retrieved from airborne lidar samples (13,500 ha) and calibrated with 817 inventory plots (0.25 ha) across precipitation and degradation gradients in the eastern Amazon as initial conditions to ED-2.2 model. Our results show that the magnitude and seasonality of fluxes were modulated by changes in forest structure caused by degradation. During the dry season and under typical conditions, severely degraded forests (biomass loss ≥66%) experienced water stress with declines in ET (up to 34%) and GPP (up to 35%) and increases of H (up to 43%) and daily mean ground temperatures (up to 6.5°C) relative to intact forests. In contrast, the relative impact of forest degradation on energy, water, and carbon cycles markedly diminishes under extreme, multiyear droughts, as a consequence of severe stress experienced by intact forests. Our results highlight that the water and energy cycles in the Amazon are driven by not only climate and deforestation but also the past disturbance and changes of forest structure from degradation, suggesting a much broader influence of human land use activities on the tropical ecosystems.

Amazonia trees have limited capacity to acclimate plant hydraulic properties in response to long-term drought

The fate of tropical forests under future climate change is dependent on the capacity of their trees to adjust to drier conditions. The capacity of trees to withstand drought is likely to be determined by traits associated with their hydraulic systems. However, data on whether tropical trees can adjust hydraulic traits when experiencing drought remain rare. We measured plant hydraulic traits (e.g. hydraulic conductivity and embolism resistance) and plant hydraulic system status (e.g. leaf water potential, native embolism and safety margin) on >150 trees from 12 genera (36 species) and spanning a stem size range from 14 to 68 cm diameter at breast height at the world's only long-running tropical forest drought experiment. Hydraulic traits showed no adjustment following 15 years of experimentally imposed moisture deficit. This failure to adjust resulted in these drought-stressed trees experiencing significantly lower leaf water potentials, and higher, but variable, levels of native embolism in the branches. This result suggests that hydraulic damage caused by elevated levels of embolism is likely to be one of the key drivers of drought-induced mortality following long-term soil moisture deficit. We demonstrate that some hydraulic traits changed with tree size, however, the direction and magnitude of the change was controlled by taxonomic identity. Our results suggest that Amazonian trees, both small and large, have limited capacity to acclimate their hydraulic systems to future droughts, potentially making them more at risk of drought-induced mortality.

Stomatal optimization based on xylem hydraulics (SOX) improves land surface model simulation of vegetation responses to climate

Land surface models (LSMs) typically use empirical functions to represent vegetation responses to soil drought. These functions largely neglect recent advances in plant ecophysiology that link xylem hydraulic functioning with stomatal responses to climate. We developed an analytical stomatal optimization model based on xylem hydraulics (SOX) to predict plant responses to drought. Coupling SOX to the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) LSM, we conducted a global evaluation of SOX against leaf- and ecosystem-level observations. SOX simulates leaf stomatal conductance responses to climate for woody plants more accurately and parsimoniously than the existing JULES stomatal conductance model. An ecosystem-level evaluation at 70 eddy flux sites shows that SOX decreases the sensitivity of gross primary productivity (GPP) to soil moisture, which improves the model agreement with observations and increases the predicted annual GPP by 30% in relation to JULES. SOX decreases JULES root-mean-square error in GPP by up to 45% in evergreen tropical forests, and can simulate realistic patterns of canopy water potential and soil water dynamics at the studied sites. SOX provides a parsimonious way to incorporate recent advances in plant hydraulics and optimality theory into LSMs, and an alternative to empirical stress factors.

Impact of biomass burning on a metropolitan area in the Amazon during the 2015 El Niño: The enhancement of carbon monoxide and levoglucosan concentrations

Extreme droughts associated with changes in the climate have occurred every 5 years in the Amazon during the 21st century, with the most severe being in 2015. The increase in biomass burning (BB) events that occurred during the 2015 drought had several negative socioeconomic and environmental impacts, one of which was a decrease in the air quality. This study is an investigation into the air quality in the Manaus Metropolitan Region (MMR) (central Amazon, Brazil) during the dry (September to October) and wet (April to May) seasons of 2015 and 2016. A strong El Niño event began during the wet season of 2015 and ended during the wet season of 2016. Particulate matter samples were collected in the MMR during 2015 and 2016, and analyses of the satellite-estimated total carbon monoxide (CO) column and observed levoglucosan concentrations were carried out. Levoglucosan has been shown to be significantly correlated with regional fires and is a well-established chemical tracer for the atmospheric particulates emitted by BB, and CO can be treated as a gaseous-phase tracer for BB. The number of BB events increased significantly during the El Niño period when compared to the average number during 2003-2016. Consequently, the total CO column and levoglucosan concentration values in the MMR increased by 15% and 500%, respectively, when compared to the normal conditions. These results indicate that during the period that was analyzed, the impacts of BB were exacerbated during the strong El Niño event as compared to the non-El Niño period. In this study, we provided evidence that the air quality in the MMR will degrade in the future if droughts and BB occurrences continue to increase.

Satellite-based estimates reveal widespread forest degradation in the Amazon

Anthropogenic and natural forest disturbance cause ecological damage and carbon emissions. Forest disturbance in the Amazon occurs in the form of deforestation (conversion of forest to non-forest land covers), degradation from the extraction of forest resources, and destruction from natural events. The crucial role of the Amazon rainforest in the hydrologic cycle has even led to the speculation of a disturbance "tipping point" leading to a collapse of the tropical ecosystem. Here we use time series analysis of Landsat data to map deforestation, degradation, and natural disturbance in the Amazon Ecoregion from 1995 to 2017. The map was used to stratify the study area for selection of sample units that were assigned reference labels based on their land cover and disturbance history. An unbiased statistical estimator was applied to the sample of reference observations to obtain estimates of area and uncertainty at biennial time intervals. We show that degradation and natural disturbance, largely during periods of severe drought, have affected as much of the forest area in the Amazon Ecoregion as deforestation from 1995 to 2017. Consequently, an estimated 17% (1,036,800 ± 24,800 km² , 95% confidence interval) of the original forest area has been disturbed as of 2017. Our results suggest that the area of disturbed forest in the Amazon is 44%-60% more than previously realized, indicating an unaccounted for source of carbon emissions and pervasive damage to forest ecosystems.

Climatic Changes, Water Systems, and Adaptation Challenges in Shawi Communities in the Peruvian Amazon

Climate change impacts on water systems have consequences for Indigenous communities. We documented climatic changes on water systems observed by Indigenous Shawi and resultant impacts on health and livelihoods, and explored adaptation options and challenges in partnership with two Indigenous Shawi communities in the Peruvian Amazon. Qualitative data were collected via PhotoVoice, interviews, focus group discussions, and transect walks, and analyzed using a constant comparative method and thematic analysis. Quantitative data were collected via a household survey and analyzed descriptively. Households observed seasonal weather changes over time (n = 50; 78%), which had already impacted their family and community (n = 43; 86%), such as more intense rainfall resulting in flooding (n = 29; 58%). Interviewees also described deforestation impacts on the nearby river, which were exacerbated by climate-related changes, including increased water temperatures (warmer weather, exacerbated by fewer trees for shading) and increased erosion and turbidity (increased rainfall, exacerbated by riverbank instability due to deforestation). No households reported community-level response plans for extreme weather events, and most did not expect government assistance when such events occurred. This study documents how Indigenous peoples are experiencing climatic impacts on water systems, and highlights how non-climatic drivers, such as deforestation, exacerbate climate change impacts on water systems and community livelihoods in the Peruvian Amazon.

Ecological response to altered rainfall differs across the Neotropics

There is growing recognition that ecosystems may be more impacted by infrequent extreme climatic events than by changes in mean climatic conditions. This has led to calls for experiments that explore the sensitivity of ecosystems over broad ranges of climatic parameter space. However, because such response surface experiments have so far been limited in geographic and biological scope, it is not clear if differences between studies reflect geographic location or the ecosystem component considered. In this study, we manipulated rainfall entering tank bromeliads in seven sites across the Neotropics, and characterized the response of the aquatic ecosystem in terms of invertebrate functional composition, biological stocks (total invertebrate biomass, bacterial density) and ecosystem fluxes (decomposition, carbon, nitrogen). Of these response types, invertebrate functional composition was the most sensitive, even though, in some sites, the species pool had a high proportion of drought-tolerant families. Total invertebrate biomass was universally insensitive to rainfall change because of statistical averaging of divergent responses between functional groups. The response of invertebrate functional composition to rain differed between geographical locations because (1) the effect of rainfall on bromeliad hydrology differed between sites, and invertebrates directly experience hydrology not rainfall and (2) the taxonomic composition of some functional groups differed between sites, and families differed in their response to bromeliad hydrology. These findings suggest that it will be difficult to establish thresholds of "safe ecosystem functioning" when ecosystem components differ in their sensitivity to climatic variables, and such thresholds may not be broadly applicable over geographic space. In particular, ecological forecast horizons for climate change may be spatially restricted in systems where habitat properties mediate climatic impacts, and those, like the tropics, with high spatial turnover in species composition.

Droughts Amplify Differences Between the Energy Balance Components of Amazon Forests and Croplands

Droughts can exert a strong influence on the regional energy balance of the Amazon and Cerrado, as can the replacement of native vegetation by croplands. What remains unclear is how these two forcing factors interact and whether land cover changes fundamentally alter the sensitivity of the energy balance components to drought events. To fill this gap, we used remote sensing data to evaluate the impacts of drought on evapotranspiration (ET), land surface temperature (LST), and albedo on cultivated areas, savannas, and forests. Our results (for seasonal drought) indicate that increases in monthly dryness across Mato Grosso state (southern Amazonia and northern Cerrado) drive greater increases in LST and albedo in croplands than in forests. Furthermore, during the 2007 and 2010 droughts, croplands became hotter (0.1–0.8 °C) than savannas (0.3–0.6 °C) and forests (0.2–0.3 °C). However, forest ET was consistently higher than ET in all other land uses. This finding likely indicates that forests can access deeper soil water during droughts. Overall, our findings suggest that forest remnants can play a fundamental role in the mitigation of the negative impacts of extreme drought events, contributing to a higher ET and lower LST.

Embolism resistance in petioles and leaflets of palms

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hydraulic studies are currently biased towards conifers and dicotyledonous angiosperms; responses of arborescent monocots to increasing temperature and drought remain poorly known. This study aims to assess xylem resistance to drought-induced embolism in palms.

METHODS

We quantified embolism resistance via P50 (xylem pressure inducing 50 % embolism or loss of hydraulic conductivity) in petioles and leaflets of six palm species differing in habitat and phylogenetic relatedness using three techniques: in vivo X-ray-based microcomputed tomography, the in situ flow centrifuge technique and the optical vulnerability method.

KEY RESULTS

Our results show that P50 of petioles varies greatly in the palm family, from -2.2 ± 0.4 MPa in Dypsis baronii to -5.8 ± 0.3 MPa in Rhapis excelsa (mean ± s.e.). No difference or weak differences were found between petioles and leaf blades within species. Surprisingly, where differences occurred, leaflets were less vulnerable to embolism than petioles. Embolism resistance was not correlated with conduit size (r = 0.37, P = 0.11).

CONCLUSIONS

This study represents the first estimate of drought-induced xylem embolism in palms across biomes and provides the first step towards understanding hydraulic adaptations in long-lived arborescent monocots. It showed an almost 3-fold range of embolism resistance between palm species, as large as that reported in all angiosperms. We found little evidence for hydraulic segmentation between leaflets and petioles in palms, suggesting that when it happens, hydraulic segregation may lack a clear relationship with organ cost or replaceability.

The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia

Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas-driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO₂ emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region's forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO₂ equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests.