Time from human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion to reaching CD4+ cell count thresholds <200, <350, and <500 Cells/mm³: assessment of need following changes in treatment guidelines

Recent and Local HIV Infections among Newly Diagnosed Cases in Two Districts of Chongqing, China (2019-2021)

Newly diagnosed HIV cases often do not clearly indicate whether they are recent or long-standing infections. We collected the history of HIV antibody testing, sexual behavior and initial CD4 + T cell (CD4) count of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS to determine the time and location of HIV infections. Of the included 612 cases, 17.3% were classified as recent HIV infection. Recent HIV infections were higher in cases aged < 30 (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 4.267, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.856-9.813) and 30-49 (AOR = 2.847, 95%CI 1.356-5.977) vs. ≥50, and the transmission mode was men who have sex with men (MSM) (AOR = 4.130, 95%CI 1.815-9.399) was higher than heterosexual contact. Of the 582 cases, 80.8% were classified as local HIV infection (An infection occurred in the two survey districts). Local HIV infections were higher in cases being single and divorced/widowed (AOR = 2.511, 95% CI 1.271-4.962) vs. being married, residing in the survey districts ≥ 5 years (AOR = 168.962, 95%CI 64.942-439.593) vs. < 1 year, transmission mode was MSM (AOR = 8.669, 95%CI 2.668-28.163) vs. heterosexual contact, and acquired infections through spouses or steady partners (AOR = 11.493, 95%CI 3.236-40.819) vs. commercial partners. Both recent and local HIV infections were higher in cases whose transmission mode was MSM, we recommended using internet platforms and MSM dating apps for HIV education and intervention, promoting internet intervention tools to raise awareness about HIV and facilitate early detection.

Enhanced Cohort Methods for HIV Research and Epidemiology (ENCORE): Protocol for a Nationwide Hybrid Cohort for Transgender Women in the United States

BACKGROUND

In the United States, transgender women are disproportionately impacted by HIV and prioritized in the national strategy to end the epidemic. Individual, interpersonal, and structural vulnerabilities underlie HIV acquisition among transgender women and fuel syndemic conditions, yet no nationwide cohort monitors their HIV and other health outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective is to develop a nationwide cohort to estimate HIV incidence, identify risk factors, and investigate syndemic conditions co-occurring with HIV vulnerability or acquisition among US transgender women. The study is informed by the Syndemics Framework and the Social Ecological Model, positing that stigma-related conditions are synergistically driven by shared multilevel vulnerabilities.

METHODS

To address logistical and cost challenges while minimizing technology barriers and research distrust, we aim to establish a novel, hybrid community hub-supported digital cohort (N=3000). The digital cohort is the backbone of the study and is enhanced by hubs strategically located across the United States for increased engagement and in-person support. Study participants are English or Spanish speakers, are aged ≥18 years, identify as transgender women or along the transfeminine spectrum, reside in 1 of the 50 states or Puerto Rico, and do not have HIV (laboratory confirmed). Participants are followed for 24 months, with semiannual assessments. These include a questionnaire and laboratory-based HIV testing using self-collected specimens. Using residential zip codes, person-level data will be merged with contextual geolocated data, including population health measures and economic, housing, and other social and structural factors. Analyses will (1) evaluate the contribution of hub support to the digital cohort using descriptive statistics; (2) estimate and characterize syndemic patterns among transgender women using latent class analysis; (3) examine the role of contextual factors in driving syndemics and HIV prevention over time using multilevel regression models; (4) estimate HIV incidence in transgender women and examine the effect of syndemics and contextual factors on HIV incidence using Poisson regression models; and (5) develop dynamic, compartmental models of multilevel combination HIV prevention interventions among transgender women to simulate their impact on HIV incidence through 2030.

RESULTS

Enrollment launched on March 15, 2023, with data collection phases occurring in spring and fall. As of February 24, 2024, a total of 3084 individuals were screened, and 996 (32.3%) met the inclusion criteria and enrolled into the cohort: 2.3% (23/996) enrolled at a hub, and 53.6% (534/996) enrolled through a community hub-supported strategy. Recruitment through purely digital methods contributed 61.5% (1895/3084) of those screened and 42.7% (425/996) of those enrolled in the cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Study findings will inform the development of evidence-based interventions to reduce HIV acquisition and syndemic conditions among US transgender women and advance efforts to end the US HIV epidemic. Methodological findings will also have critical implications for the design of future innovative approaches to HIV research.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/59846.

Missed opportunities for HIV testing and sexual health-related challenges in an individual with intellectual disability: a case report

BACKGROUND

HIV testing remains an important tool in identifying people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). An early diagnosis of HIV can lead to a prolonged life expectancy if treatment is initiated promptly. Indicator conditions can be the first sign of an HIV infection and should therefore be recognised and consequently a HIV test should be carried out. Testing should occur in all individuals as sexuality can be experienced by everyone, and stigma can lead to the exclusion of vulnerable groups, leading to a gap in diagnosis and treatment [1, 2].

CASE PRESENTATION

A 63-year-old man, who identifies as bisexual and has had an intellectual disability since birth, presented at our health care centre for HIV testing. A decade ago, the patient was diagnosed with Stage III Diffuse Large B-cell Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma, an AIDS defining cancer. The patient presented at a Haematology and Oncology department 3 months prior, due to a weight loss of 10 kg over the past 5 months. Oral thrush, an HIV-indicator condition, had been diagnosed by the otolaryngologists shortly before. During this medical evaluation, pancytopenia was identified. Despite the presence of indicator conditions, the patient was never tested for HIV in the past. Staff members from the care facility for intellectually disabled suggested conducting a HIV test in our clinic through the public health department, where HIV positivity was revealed. The AIDS-defining diagnosis, along with a CD4 + cell count of 41/µl, suggests a prolonged period of HIV positivity.

CONCLUSION

Due to the presence of existing indicator conditions, an earlier HIV diagnosis was possible. We contend that most of the recent illnesses could have been prevented if earlier testing had been carried out. Therefore, patients presenting with AIDS indicator conditions, including those with mental disabilities, should be given the opportunity to be tested for HIV. HIV/AIDS trainings should be made available to health care professionals as well as to personnel interacting with vulnerable groups.

Variability in life expectancy among people with HIV in Brazil by gender and sexual orientation

INTRODUCTION

In Brazil, though Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is available to all, the benefits may not be experienced uniformly. We projected Life Expectancy (LE) for People Living with HIV (PLHIV) in care as currently observed and estimated the impact of guideline-concordant care.

METHODS

Using a microsimulation model, we projected LE for a cohort of PLHIV and for four population groups: cisgender Men who have Sex with Men (MSM), cisgender Men who have Sex with Women (MSW), Cisgender Women (CGW), and Transgender Women (TGW). Cohort data from Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases/Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (INI/Fiocruz) informed model parameters. We modeled five scenarios: 1) Current care: ART initiation, adherence, and retention in care as currently observed, 2) Guideline-concordant care: immediate ART initiation, full adherence to treatment, and consistent retention in care, 3) Immediate ART initiation with observed adherence to treatment and retention in care, 4) Full adherence to treatment with observed timing of ART initiation and retention in care, and 5) Consistent retention in care with observed timing of ART initiation and adherence.

RESULTS

With current care, LE from age 15 would be 45.9, 44.4, 54.2, and 42.3 years, for MSM, MSW, CGW, and TGW. With guideline-concordant care, LE would be 54.2, 54.4, 63.1, and 53.2 years, for MSM, MSW, CGW and TGW, with TGW experiencing the greatest potential increase in LE (10.9 years). When investigating the components of care separately, MSW and CGW would gain most LE with immediate ART initiation, whereas for MSM and TGW consistent retention in care would be most impactful.

CONCLUSIONS

In settings like INI/Fiocruz, MSW and CGW would benefit most from interventions focused on earlier diagnosis and linkage to care, whereas TGW and MSM would benefit from interventions to sustain engagement in care. Assessment of the HIV care continuum for specific populations should inform care priorities.

Cost-effectiveness of internet-based HIV screening among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in Metro Vancouver, Canada

BACKGROUND

GetCheckedOnline is an internet-based screening service aiming to increase HIV testing among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). We assessed the cost-effectiveness of GetCheckedOnline in its first implementation phase at different uptake scenarios compared to clinic-based screening services alone in Metro Vancouver, Canada.

METHODS

From a healthcare payer's perspective, our cost-utility analysis used an established dynamic GBMSM HIV compartmental model estimating the probability of acquiring HIV, progressing through diagnosis, disease stages and treatment over a 30-year time horizon. The base case scenario assumed 4.7% uptake of GetCheckedOnline in 2016 (remainder using clinic-based services), with 74% of high-risk and 44% of low-risk infrequent testers becoming regular testers in five years. Scenario analyses tested increased GetCheckedOnline uptake to 10% and 15%.

RESULTS

The cost per test for GetCheckedOnline was $29.40 compared to clinic-based services $56.92. Compared with clinic-based screening services, the projected increase in testing frequency with 4.7% uptake of GetCheckedOnline increased the costs by $329,600 (95% Credible Interval: -$498,200, $571,000) and gained 4.53 (95%CrI: 0, 9.20) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in a 30-year time horizon. The probability of GetCheckedOnline being cost-effective was 34% at the threshold of $50,000 per QALY, and increased to 73% at the threshold of $100,000 per QALY. The results were consistent in the other uptake scenarios. The probability of GetCheckedOnline being cost-effective became 80% at the threshold of $50,000 per QALY if assuming 5-year time horizon.

CONCLUSIONS

GetCheckedOnline is almost half the cost of clinic-based services on a per-test basis. However, increased access to testing should be balanced with risk profiles of patients to ensure the implementation can be a cost-effective strategy for increasing HIV screening among GBMSM in Metro Vancouver. Additional analyses are needed to understand the impact of internet-based screening including screening for other STIs and in other populations.

Association of Alcohol Consumption With CD4 Recovery After Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation in St. Petersburg, Russia

BACKGROUND

Delayed CD4 recovery after initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a novel potential mechanism by which alcohol consumption leads to increased morbidity and mortality in people with HIV. We hypothesized that alcohol consumption at ART initiation is associated with slower CD4 recovery.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 2 pooled longitudinal alcohol/HIV cohorts (2014-2019) in St. Petersburg, Russia. Eligible participants initiated the first ART during parent studies; had alcohol consumption assessed by the blood biomarker, phosphatidylethanol (PEth), at the last research visit before ART initiation; and had ≥1 CD4 count measurement before and after initiating ART. Participants were stratified by low, moderate, and high PEth (<8, 8-80, and >80 ng/mL, respectively). We used random-effects piecewise linear regression models to estimate CD4 recovery, defined as CD4 count change per 30 days after ART initiation, by the alcohol group.

RESULTS

Of 60 eligible participants, median age was 34 years and 28% were female. The median pre-ART PEth in the low, moderate, and high PEth groups were <8, 23, and 232 ng/mL, respectively. After starting ART, the CD4 count increased by 13.60 cells/mm3/mo (95% CI: 0.33 to 26.87) with low PEth, 0.93 cells/mm3/mo (95% CI: -6.18 to 8.04) with moderate PEth, and 2.33 cells/mm3/mo (95% CI: -3.44 to 8.09) with high PEth.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Russians with HIV, we observed faster CD4 recovery after ART initiation in those with low alcohol consumption compared with those with moderate and high alcohol consumption, as assessed by PEth. This analysis provides further evidence for the possible value of alcohol reduction interventions for people with HIV who are initiating ART.

Development of a multiassay algorithm (MAA) to identify recent HIV infection in newly diagnosed individuals in Indonesia

Ongoing HIV transmission is a public health priority in Indonesia. We developed a new multiassay algorithm (MAA) to identify recent HIV infection. The MAA is a sequential decision tree based on multiple biomarkers, starting with CD4+ T cells >200/μL, followed by plasma viral load (pVL) > 1,000 copies/ml, avidity index (AI) < 0 · 7, and pol ambiguity <0 · 47%. Plasma from 140 HIV-infected adults from 19 hospitals across Indonesia (January 2018 - June 2020) was studied, consisting of a training set (N = 60) of longstanding infection (>12-month) and a test set (N = 80) of newly diagnosed (≤1-month) antiretroviral (ARV) drug naive individuals. Ten of eighty (12 · 5%) newly diagnosed individuals were classified as recent infections. Drug resistance mutations (DRMs) against reverse transcriptase inhibitors were identified in two individuals: one infected with HIV subtype C (K219Q, V179T) and the other with CRF01_AE (V179D). Ongoing HIV transmission, including infections with DRMs, is substantial in Indonesia.

Immediate and long-term outcomes after treat-all among people living with HIV in China: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2003, China implemented free antiretroviral therapy (ART) for people living with HIV (PLHIV), establishing an eligibility threshold of CD4 < 200 cells/μl. Subsequently, the entry criteria were revised in 2012 (eligibility threshold: CD4 ≤ 350 cells/μl), 2014 (CD4 ≤ 500 cells/μl), and 2016 (treat-all). However, the impact of treat-all policy on HIV care and treatment indicators in China is unknown. We aimed to elucidate the immediate and long-term impact of the implementation of treat-all policy in China.

METHODS

Anonymized programmatic data on ART initiation and collection in PLHIV who newly started ART were retrieved between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019, from two provincial and municipal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and ten major infectious disease hospitals specialized in HIV care in China. We used Poisson and quasi-Poisson segmented regression models to estimate the immediate and long-term impact of treat-all on three key indicators: monthly proportion of 30-day ART initiation, mean CD4 counts (cells/μl) at ART initiation, and mean estimated time from infection to diagnosis (year). We built separate models according to gender, age, route of transmission and region.

RESULTS

Monthly data on ART initiation and collection were available for 75,516 individuals [gender: 83.8% males; age: median 39 years, interquartile range (IQR): 28-53; region: 18.5% Northern China, 10.9% Northeastern China, 17.5% Southern China, 49.2% Southwestern China]. In the first month of treat-all, compared with the contemporaneous counterfactual, there was a significant increase in proportion of 30-day ART initiation [+ 12.6%, incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.126, 95% CI: 1.033-1.229; P = 0.007] and mean estimated time from infection to diagnosis (+ 7.0%, IRR = 1.070, 95% CI: 1.021-1.120; P = 0.004), while there was no significant change in mean CD4 at ART initiation (IRR = 0.990, 95% CI: 0.956-1.026; P = 0.585). By December 2019, the three outcomes were not significantly different from expected levels. In the stratified analysis, compared with the contemporaneous counterfactual, mean CD4 at ART initiation showed significant increases in Northern China (+ 3.3%, IRR = 1.033, 95% CI: 1.001-1.065; P = 0.041) and Northeastern China (+ 8.0%, IRR = 1.080, 95% CI: 1.003-1.164; P = 0.042) in the first month of treat-all; mean estimated time from infection to diagnosis showed significant increases in male (+ 5.6%, IRR = 1.056, 95% CI: 1.010-1.104; P = 0.016), female (+ 14.8%, IRR = 1.148, 95% CI: 1.062-1.240; P < 0.001), aged 26-35 (+ 5.3%, IRR = 1.053, 95% CI: 1.001-1.109; P = 0.048) and > 50 (+ 7.8%, IRR = 1.078, 95% CI: 1.000-1.161; P = 0.046), heterosexual transmission (+ 12.4%, IRR = 1.124, 95% CI: 1.042-1.213; P = 0.002) and Southwestern China (+ 12.9%, IRR = 1.129, 95% CI: 1.055-1.208; P < 0.001) in the first month of treat-all.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of treat-all policy in China was associated with a positive effect on HIV care and treatment outcomes. To advance the work of rapid ART, efforts should be made to streamline the testing and ART initiation process, provide comprehensive support services, and address the issue of uneven distribution of medical resources.

Induced abortions of women living with HIV in Finland 1987-2019: a national register study

BACKGROUND

Recent data on the rate and risk factors of induced abortion among women living with HIV (WLWH) are limited. Our aim was to use Finnish national health register data to 1) determine the nationwide rate of induced abortions of WLWH in Finland during 1987-2019, 2) compare the rates of induced abortions before and after HIV diagnosis over different time periods, 3) determine the factors associated with terminating a pregnancy after HIV diagnosis, and 4) estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV at induced abortions to see whether routine testing should be implemented.

METHODS

A retrospective nationwide register study of all WLWH in Finland 1987-2019 (n = 1017). Data from several registers were combined to identify all induced abortions and deliveries of WLWH before and after HIV diagnosis. Factors associated with terminating a pregnancy were assessed with predictive multivariable logistic regression models. The prevalence of undiagnosed HIV at induced abortion was estimated by comparing the induced abortions among WLWH before HIV diagnosis to the number of induced abortions in Finland.

RESULTS

Rate of induced abortions among WLWH decreased from 42.8 to 14.7 abortions/1000 follow-up years from 1987-1997 to 2009-2019, more prominently in abortions after HIV diagnosis. After 1997 being diagnosed with HIV was not associated with an increased risk of terminating a pregnancy. Factors associated with induced abortion in pregnancies that began after HIV diagnosis 1998-2019 were being foreign-born (OR 3.09, 95% CI 1.55-6.19), younger age (OR 0.95 per year, 95% CI 0.90-1.00), previous induced abortions (OR 3.36, 95% CI 1.80-6.28), and previous deliveries (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.08-4.21). Estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HIV at induced abortion was 0.008-0.029%.

CONCLUSIONS

Rate of induced abortions among WLWH has decreased. Family planning should be discussed at every follow-up appointment. Routine testing of HIV at all induced abortions is not cost-effective in Finland due to low prevalence.

Molecular Network Analysis Discloses the Limited Contribution to HIV Transmission for Patients with Late HIV Diagnosis in Northeast China

In the "treat all" era, the high rate of late HIV diagnosis (LHD) worldwide remains an impediment to ending the HIV epidemic. In this study, we analyzed LHD in newly diagnosed people living with HIV (PLWH) and its impact on HIV transmission in Northeast China. Sociodemographic information, baseline clinical data, and plasma samples obtained from all newly diagnosed PLWH in Shenyang, the largest city in Northeast China, between 2016 and 2019 were evaluated. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with LHD. A molecular network based on the HIV pol gene was constructed to assess the risk of HIV transmission with LHD. A total of 2882 PLWH, including 882 (30.6%) patients with LHD and 1390 (48.2%) patients with non-LHD, were enrolled. The risk factors for LHD were older age (≥ 30 years: p < .01) and diagnosis in the general population through physical examination (p < .0001). Moreover, the molecular network analysis revealed that the clustering rate (p < .0001), the fraction of individuals with ≥ 4 links (p = .0847), and the fraction of individuals linked to recent HIV infection (p < .0001) for LHD were significantly or marginally significantly lower than those recorded for non-LHD. Our study indicates the major risk factors associated with LHD in Shenyang and their limited contribution to HIV transmission, revealing that the peak of HIV transmission of LHD at diagnosis may have been missed. Early detection, diagnosis, and timely intervention for LHD may prevent HIV transmission.

Late diagnosis of HIV: An updated consensus definition

INTRODUCTION

In recent years, HIV testing frequency has increased, resulting in more people being diagnosed during seroconversion with a temporarily low CD4 count. Using the current consensus definition of late HIV presentation ('presenting for care with a CD4 count < 350 cells/μL or an AIDS-defining event, regardless of CD4 count') these individuals would be incorrectly assigned as being diagnosed late.

METHODS

In spring 2022, a European expert group convened to revise the current late HIV presentation consensus definition. A survey on data availability to apply this revised definition was sent to nominated European focal points responsible for HIV surveillance (n = 53).

RESULTS

Experts agreed that the updated definition should refer to late HIV diagnosis rather than presentation and include the following addition: People with evidence of recent infection should be reclassified as 'not late', with evidence of recent infection considered hierarchically. The individual must have: (i) laboratory evidence of recent infection; (ii) a last negative HIV test within 12 months of diagnosis; or (iii) clinical evidence of acute infection. People with evidence of being previously diagnosed abroad should be excluded. A total of 18 countries responded to the survey; 83% reported capturing CD4 count and/or AIDS at diagnosis through national surveillance, 67% captured last negative test and/or previous HIV diagnosis, 61% captured seroconversion illness at diagnosis and 28% captured incident antibody results.

CONCLUSIONS

Accurate data on late diagnosis are important to describe the effects of testing programmes. Reclassification of individuals with recent infection will help to better identify populations most at risk of poor HIV outcomes and areas for intervention.

The epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of key population-led PrEP delivery to prevent HIV among men who have sex with men in Thailand: A modelling study

Background

Although key populations (KPs), such as men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by HIV, many prevention and treatment services are not easily accessible for KP members. To address the needs of KPs, Thailand established pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) service delivery together with and led by KP members. This study determines the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of key population-led (KP-led) PrEP.

Methods

We calibrated a compartmental deterministic HIV transmission model to the HIV epidemic among Thai MSM. Besides KP-led PrEP, we included other Thai service delivery models of PrEP (fee-based PrEP, the government PrEP program).Data on consistent PrEP use (5 years daily use, 95% effectiveness for preventing HIV) came from Thai PrEP delivery models. For the period 2015-2032, we ranged the number of PrEP starters (40,000-120,000), effectiveness of PrEP (45%-95%), and proportion of consistent users (10%-50%). The analysis started in 2015 when PrEP was introduced. A cost-effectiveness ratio of <160,000 Baht per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) over 40 years was cost-effective.

Findings

Without PrEP, 53,800 (interquartile range 48,700-59,700) new HIV infections are expected in 2015-2032. KP-led PrEP was found to have the strongest epidemiological impact of all delivery models averting 58% of infections compared to without PrEP. The epidemiological impact depends on the number of PrEP starters and proportion of consistent use. Although all PrEP service delivery models are cost-effective, KP-led PrEP is most cost-effective with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 28,000-37,300 Thai Baht per QALY.

Interpretation

Our model projects KP-led PrEP having the greatest epidemiological impact and being the most cost-effective service delivery model of PrEP in Thailand.

Funding

This study was supported by the US Agency for International Development and U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Linkages Across the Continuum of HIV Services for Key Populations cooperative agreement (AID-OAA-A-14- 0045) managed by FHI 360.

Re-assessing the late HIV diagnosis surveillance definition in the era of increased and frequent testing

OBJECTIVES

Late HIV diagnosis (CD4 <350 cells/mm³ ) is a key public health metric. In an era of more frequent testing, the likelihood of HIV diagnosis occurring during seroconversion, when CD4 counts may dip below 350, is greater. We applied a correction, considering markers of recent infection, and re-assessed 1-year mortality following late diagnosis.

METHODS

We used national epidemiological and laboratory surveillance data from all people diagnosed with HIV in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (EW&NI). Those with a baseline CD4 <350 were reclassified as 'not late' if they had evidence of recent infection (recency test and/or negative test within 24 months). A correction factor (CF) was the number reclassified divided by the number with a CD4 <350.

RESULTS

Of the 32 227 people diagnosed with HIV in EW&NI between 2011 and 2019 with a baseline CD4 (81% of total), 46% had a CD4 <350 (uncorrected late diagnosis rate): 34% of gay and bisexual men (GBM), 65% of heterosexual men, and 56% of heterosexual women. Accounting for recency test and/or prior negative tests gave a 'corrected' late diagnosis rate of 39% and corresponding CF of 14%. The CF increased from 10% to 18% during 2011-2015, then plateaued, and was larger among GBM (25%) than heterosexual men and women (6% and 7%, respectively). One-year mortality among people diagnosed late was 329 per 10 000 after reclassification (an increase from 288/10 000).

CONCLUSIONS

The case-surveillance definition of late diagnosis increasingly overestimates late presentation, the extent of which differs by key populations. Adjustment of late diagnosis is recommended, particularly for frequent testers such as GBM.

The Impact of Curcumin on Immune Response: An Immunomodulatory Strategy to Treat Sepsis

Primary and secondary immunodeficiencies cause an alteration in the immune response which can increase the rate of infectious diseases and worsened prognoses. They can also alter the immune response, thus, making the infection even worse. Curcumin is the most biologically active component of the turmeric root and appears to be an antimicrobial agent. Curcumin cooperates with various cells such as macrophages, dendritic cells, B, T, and natural killer cells to modify the body's defence capacity. Curcumin also inhibits inflammatory responses by suppressing different metabolic pathways, reduces the production of inflammatory cytokines, and increases the expression of anti-inflammatory cytokines. Curcumin may also affect oxidative stress and the non-coding genetic material. This review analyses the relationships between immunodeficiency and the onset of infectious diseases and discusses the effects of curcumin and its derivatives on the immune response. In addition, we analyse some of the preclinical and clinical studies that support its possible use in prophylaxis or in the treatment of infectious diseases. Lastly, we examine how nanotechnologies can enhance the clinical use of curcumin.

[HIV First Diagnoses in Germany in 2014 - A Regional Analysis]

BACKGROUND

Information on testing units in health care is scarce, particularly the group of late-presenters among the HIV-first diagnoses is still a challenge in Germany.

AIM

Analysis of the impact of testing units on and reasons for the prevalence of HIV-first diagnoses and late presentation, taking 2014 for illustrative purposes.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis of all individuals, treated in the Network HIV-Regional who were first diagnosed with HIV in 2014; patient characteristics, demographic and clinical data, including information on HIV testing were collected retrospectively and in a decentralised manner, pseudonymized and statistically evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 971 individuals with HIV-first diagnosis from 31 specialised care centres throughout Germany (15 hospitals, 16 private practices) represented 27.5% of all National HIV-first diagnoses -registrations from Robert Koch Institute for 2014, with similar results for CD4-cell count and HIV-transmission risk. The most common test site was a hospital (34.8%), followed by the office of a family doctor (19.6%) and medical specialist (16.1%). If the first diagnosis was established in hospital, then the patients were on average older than those tested on an ambulant care basis (42 vs. 37 years, p=0.001); moreover, the HI-viral load was higher (585 vs. 270 thousand copies/mL, p<0.001) and the CD4-cell count lower (265 vs. 414/µL, p<0.001). In 208/971 individuals with first diagnosis, at least one AIDS-defining disease was found, most frequently pneumocystis-pneumonia (43.8%), candidiasis (36.5%) and Kaposi sarcoma (10.6%). A regional comparison revealed that in eastern Germany, for first diagnosed HIV-patients were younger, had a higher HIV-RNA viral load and also more often clinical AIDS.

CONCLUSION

This analysis of HIV-Regional for 2014 enables a deeper insight into HIV first diagnoses, on the eve of the introduction of important prevention tools in Germany, e. g., HIV home testing and pre-exposure prophylaxis. This cross-sectional analysis was representative for Germany and underscores the importance of specialised hospitals, in particular for eastern Germany, and furthermore the involvement of late-presenters into HIV health care.

Bioactive Effects of Curcumin in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Along with the Most Effective Isolation Techniques and Type of Nanoformulations

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, with African countries being the worst affected by this deadly virus. Curcumin (CUR) is a Curcuma longa-derived polyphenol that has attracted the attention of researchers due to its antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, immunomodulatory and antiviral effects. CUR also demonstrates anti-HIV effects by acting as a possible inhibitor of gp120 binding, integrase, protease, and topoisomerase II activities, besides also exerting a protective action against HIV-associated diseases. However, its effectiveness is limited due to its poor water solubility, rapid metabolism, and systemic elimination. Nanoformulations have been shown to be useful to enhance curcumin’s bioavailability and its effectiveness as an anti-HIV agent. In this sense, bioactive effects of CUR in HIV infection are carefully reviewed, along with the most effective isolation techniques and type of nanoformulations available.

Elimination of HIV transmission in Japanese MSM with combination interventions

Background

Japan has a concentrated HIV epidemic, with the majority of transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aimed to explore the effect of behavioral and biomedical interventions on the HIV epidemic and forecast the time required to eliminate HIV transmission among Japanese MSM.

Methods

A deterministic compartmental model was built to estimate and forecast the HIV epidemic among Japanese MSM from 2010 to 2050. Elimination of HIV transmission among MSM was defined as incidence less than 1/1000 person-years. The time required for eliminating HIV transmission under different scenarios was calculated.

Findings

Under the current policies, HIV transmission cannot be eliminated by 2050. Both behavioral and biomedical interventions can achieve elimination of HIV among MSM by 2050 with annual number of sexual partners among high-risk MSM less than 9, or with condom use rate above 65%, or with testing and treatment rate above 80%, or with more than 10% PrEP coverage rate. Under comprehensive interventions, HIV elimination will be achieved in 2032, 2025 and 2024 using weak, moderate and strong intervention combinations, respectively.

Interpretation

Both behavioural and biomedical interventions can achieve elimination of HIV among MSM by 2050, but comprehensive interventions can accelerate the realization of this goal with higher feasibility.

Funding

This study was funded by a Health and Labor Sciences Research Grant (Research on HIV/AIDS) from The Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare (21HB0701) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81773543 and 81973150), and the KC Wong Education Foundation.

CRF07_BC is associated with slow HIV disease progression in Chinese patients

HIV subtypes convey important epidemiological information and possibly influence the rate of disease progression. In this study, HIV disease progression in patients infected with CRF01_AE, CRF07_BC, and subtype B was compared in the largest HIV molecular epidemiology study ever done in China. A national data set of HIV pol sequences was assembled by pooling sequences from public databases and the Beijing HIV laboratory network. Logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with the risk of AIDS at diagnosis ([AIDSAD], defined as a CD4 count < 200 cells/µL) in patients with HIV subtype B, CRF01_AE, and CRF07_BC. Of the 20,663 sequences, 9,156 (44.3%) were CRF01_AE. CRF07_BC was responsible for 28.3% of infections, followed by B (13.9%). In multivariable analysis, the risk of AIDSAD differed significantly according to HIV subtype (OR for CRF07_BC vs. B: 0.46, 95% CI 0.39─0.53), age (OR for ≥ 65 years vs. < 18 years: 4.3 95% CI 1.81─11.8), and transmission risk groups (OR for men who have sex with men vs. heterosexuals: 0.67 95% CI 0.6─0.75). These findings suggest that HIV diversity in China is constantly evolving and gaining in complexity. CRF07_BC is less pathogenic than subtype B, while CRF01_AE is as pathogenic as B.

Transmitted HIV-1 is more virulent in heterosexual individuals than men-who-have-sex-with-men

Transmission bottlenecks introduce selection pressures on HIV-1 that vary with the mode of transmission. Recent studies on small cohorts have suggested that stronger selection pressures lead to fitter transmitted/founder (T/F) strains. Manifestations of this selection bias at the population level have remained elusive. Here, we analysed early CD4 cell count measurements reported from ∼340,000 infected heterosexual individuals (HET) and men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), across geographies, ethnicities and calendar years. The reduction in CD4 counts early in infection is reflective of the virulence of T/F strains. MSM and HET use predominant modes of transmission, namely, anal and penile-vaginal, with among the largest differences in the selection pressures at transmission across modes. Further, in most geographies, the groups show little inter-mixing, allowing for the differential selection bias to be sustained and amplified. We found that the early reduction in CD4 counts was consistently greater in HET than MSM (P<0.05). To account for inherent variations in baseline CD4 counts, we constructed a metric to quantify the extent of progression to AIDS as the ratio of the reduction in measured CD4 counts from baseline and the reduction associated with AIDS. We found that this progression corresponding to the early CD4 measurements was ∼68% for MSM and ∼87% for HET on average (P<10⁻⁴; Cohen’s d, d_s = 0.36), reflecting the more severe disease caused by T/F strains in HET than MSM at the population level. Interestingly, the set-point viral load was not different between the groups (d_s<0.12), suggesting that MSM were more tolerant and not more resistant to their T/F strains than HET. This difference remained when we controlled for confounding factors using multivariable regression. We concluded that the different selection pressures at transmission have resulted in more virulent T/F strains in HET than MSM. These findings have implications for our understanding of HIV-1 pathogenesis, evolution, and epidemiology.

HIV-1 encounters a key bottleneck at the time of its transmission from one individual to another. This transmission bottleneck can differ between modes of transmission. The stronger this bottleneck is, the more fit the virus has to be to be successfully transmitted. Accordingly, the transmitted/founder (T/F) strains of HIV-1 may have different fitness in risk groups that use different modes of transmission. While studies on small cohorts do support this notion, observations of the manifestations of this differential selection bias at the population level have been lacking. Here, we examined reported early CD4 count measurements from ∼340,000 HET and MSM, across geographies, ethnicities, and calendar years. Early CD4 counts are a measure of the severity of the infection due to T/F strains. HET and MSM transmit predominantly via penile-vaginal and anal modes, respectively, and do not inter-mix significantly. Remarkably, we found that HET consistently had lower early CD4 counts than MSM. This difference could not be attributed to potential confounding factors, such as set-point viral load. The difference thus provided evidence that T/F strains had evolved to be more virulent in HET than MSM at the population level. Intervention strategies may benefit from accounting for this difference between risk groups.

Prevalence of and factors associated with late diagnosis of HIV in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe: Results from population-based nationally representative surveys

INTRODUCTION

Late diagnosis of HIV (LD) increases the risk of morbidity, mortality, and HIV transmission. We used nationally representative data from population-based HIV impact assessment (PHIA) surveys in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (2015-2016) to characterize adults at risk of LD and to examine associations between LD and presumed HIV transmission to cohabiting sexual partners.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of LD, defined as CD4 count <350 cells/μL, among adults newly diagnosed with HIV during the surveys and odds ratios for associated factors. We linked newly diagnosed adults (index cases) to their household sexual partners and calculated adjusted odds ratios for associations between LD of the index case, viral load of the index case, and duration of HIV exposure in the relationship, and the HIV status of the household sexual partner.

RESULTS

Of 1,804 adults who were newly diagnosed with HIV in the surveys, 49% (882) were diagnosed late. LD was associated with male sex, older age, and almost five times the odds of having an HIV-positive household sexual partner (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.65 [95% confidence interval: 2.56-8.45]). Longer duration of HIV exposure in a relationship and higher viral load of the index case were both independently associated with higher odds of having HIV-positive household sexual partners. Individuals with HIV exposure of more than 5 years had more than three times (aOR 3.42 [95% CI: 1.63-7.18]) higher odds of being HIV positive than those with less than 2 years HIV exposure. The odds of being HIV positive were increased in individuals who were in a relationship with an index case with a viral load of 400-3499 copies/mL (aOR 4.06 [95% CI 0.45-36.46]), 3,500-9,999 copies/mL (aOR 11.32 [95% CI: 4.08-31.39]), 10,000-49,999 copies/mL (aOR 17.07 [95% CI: 9.18-31.72]), and ≥50,000 copies/mL (aOR 28.41 [95% CI: 12.18-66.28]) compared to individuals who were in a relationship with an index case with a viral load of <400 copies/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

LD remains a challenge in Southern Africa and is strongly associated with presumed HIV transmission to household sexual partners. Our study underscores the need for earlier HIV diagnosis, particularly among men and older adults, and the importance of index testing.

A highly virulent variant of HIV-1 circulating in the Netherlands

We discovered a highly virulent variant of subtype-B HIV-1 in the Netherlands. One hundred nine individuals with this variant had a 0.54 to 0.74 log₁₀ increase (i.e., a ~3.5-fold to 5.5-fold increase) in viral load compared with, and exhibited CD4 cell decline twice as fast as, 6604 individuals with other subtype-B strains. Without treatment, advanced HIV-CD4 cell counts below 350 cells per cubic millimeter, with long-term clinical consequences-is expected to be reached, on average, 9 months after diagnosis for individuals in their thirties with this variant. Age, sex, suspected mode of transmission, and place of birth for the aforementioned 109 individuals were typical for HIV-positive people in the Netherlands, which suggests that the increased virulence is attributable to the viral strain. Genetic sequence analysis suggests that this variant arose in the 1990s from de novo mutation, not recombination, with increased transmissibility and an unfamiliar molecular mechanism of virulence.

Evaluation of Undiagnosed HIV Estimates Computed from the CD4 Depletion Model in a Rural, Medium-low HIV Prevalence State

The CD4 depletion model estimates diagnosis delays by approximating infection date from CD4 T-cell count at diagnosis, and back-calculation can compute the proportion of undiagnosed PLWHA. The model assumes the immigration of PLWHA to the U.S. is negligible and counts as a transmission event, which may be impractical outside high prevalence states. Duration of U.S. residency among foreign-born PLWHA and diagnosis delays were compared. The impact on estimates of undiagnosed PLWHA was tested through simulation with different proportions of foreign-born people assumed to have acquired HIV abroad. In 67% of foreign-born people, the mean (SD) years of delay (9.9 (6.3)) exceeded the duration of U.S. residency (2.0 (1.9)). Additionally, inaccuracies in the estimates for proportions of undiagnosed PLWHA were pronounced when foreign-born people who acquired HIV abroad comprised 30% of diagnoses. The CD4 model inadvertently misclassified some diagnoses as in-state transmission events. Consequently, simulated results demonstrated inaccuracies and unstable calculations.

HIV incidence estimates by sex and age group in the population aged 15 years or over, Brazil, 1986-2018

INTRODUCTION

HIV incidence estimates are essential to monitor the progress of prevention and control interventions.

METHODS

Data collected by Brazilian surveillance systems were used to derive HIV incidence estimates by age group (15-24; 25+) and sex from 1986 to 2018. This study used a back-calculation method based on the first CD4 count among treatment-naïve cases. Incidence estimates for the population aged 15 years or over were compared to Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) estimates from 2000 to 2018.

RESULTS

Among young men (15-24 years), HIV incidence increased from 6,400 (95% CI: 4,900-8,400), in 2000, to 12,800 (95% CI: 10,800-15,900), in 2015, reaching incidence rates higher than 70/100,000 inhabitants and an annual growth rate of 3.7%. Among young women, HIV incidence decreased from 5,000 (95% CI: 4,200-6,100) to 3,200 (95% CI: 3,000-3,700). Men aged ≥25 years and both female groups showed significant annual decreases in incidence rates from 2000 to 2018. In 2018, the estimated number of new infections was 48,500 (95% CI: 45300-57500), 34,800 (95% CI: 32800-41500) men, 13,600 (95% CI: 12,500-16,000) women. Improvements in the time from infection to diagnosis and in the proportion of cases receiving antiretroviral therapy immediately after diagnosis were found for all groups. Comparison with GBD estimates shows similar rates for men with overlapping confidence intervals. Among women, differences are higher mainly in more recent years.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that efforts to control the HIV epidemic are having an impact. However, there is an urgent need to address the vulnerability of young men.

Time From HIV Infection to Diagnosis in the U.S., 2014-2018

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the role of sociologic, structural, and biomedical factors that influence the length of time from HIV infection to diagnosis and reducing the time from infection to diagnosis are critical for achieving the goals of the Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative. In a retrospective analysis, the length of time from HIV infection to diagnosis and its association with individual- and facility-level attributes are determined.

METHODS

Data reported by December 2019 to the U.S. National HIV Surveillance System for people with HIV diagnosed during 2014-2018 were analyzed during December 2020. A CD4 depletion model was used to estimate the time from HIV infection to diagnosis.

RESULTS

During 2018, the median time from HIV infection to diagnosis was shorter for those infections diagnosed using the rapid testing algorithm (30.3 months, 95% CI=25.5, 34.5) than those diagnosed using the recommended (41.0 months, 95% CI=39.5, 42.0), traditional (37.0 months, 95% CI=29.5, 43.5), or other (35.5 months, 95% CI=32.5, 38.0) diagnostic testing algorithms. From 2014 to 2018, the time from HIV infection to diagnosis remained stable overall for all testing methods except for the traditional diagnostic testing algorithm. In multivariate analyses, those more likely to have HIV diagnosed closer to the time of infection were younger, were White, had transmission risk factors of injection drug use or heterosexual contact (for female individuals) or male-to-male sexual contact and injection drug use, or had HIV diagnosed at a correctional or screening facility (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Providing access to expanded testing, including rapid testing in nonclinical settings, is likely to result in a decrease in the length of time a person is unaware of their HIV infection and thus reduce onward transmission of HIV infection.

Estimated time from HIV infection to diagnosis and diagnosis to first viral suppression during 2014-2018

OBJECTIVE

To examine changes in the lengths of time from HIV infection to diagnosis (Infx-to-Dx) and from diagnosis to first viral suppression (Dx-to-VS), two periods during which HIV can be transmitted.

DESIGN

Data from the National HIV Surveillance System (NHSS) for persons who were aged at least 13 years at the time of HIV diagnosis during 2014-2018 and resided in one of 33 United States jurisdictions with complete laboratory reporting.

METHODS

The date of HIV infection was estimated based on a CD4+-depletion model. Date of HIV diagnosis, and dates and results of first CD4+ test and first viral suppression (<200 copies/ml) after diagnosis were reported to NHSS through December 2019. Trends for Infx-to-Dx and Dx-to-VS intervals were examined using estimated annual percentage change.

RESULTS

During 2014-2018, among persons aged at least 13 years, 133 413 HIV diagnoses occurred. The median length of infx-to-Dx interval shortened from 43 months (2014) to 40 months (2018), a 1.5% annual decrease (7% relative change over the 5-year period). The median length of Dx-to-VS interval shortened from 7 months (2014) to 4 months (2018), an 11.4% annual decrease (42.9% relative change over the 5-year period). Infx-to-Dx intervals shortened in only some subgroups, whereas Dx-to-VS intervals shortened in all groups by sex, transmission category, race/ethnicity, age, and CD4+ count at diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

The shortened Infx-to-Dx and Dx-to-VS intervals suggest progress in promoting HIV testing and earlier treatment; however, diagnosis delays continue to be substantial. Further shortening both intervals and eliminating disparities are needed to achieve Ending the HIV Epidemic goals.

Disease progression and mortality with untreated HIV infection: evidence synthesis of HIV seroconverter cohorts, antiretroviral treatment clinical cohorts and population-based survey data

Introduction

Model‐based estimates of key HIV indicators depend on past epidemic trends that are derived based on assumptions about HIV disease progression and mortality in the absence of antiretroviral treatment (ART). Population‐based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) household surveys conducted between 2015 and 2018 found substantial numbers of respondents living with untreated HIV infection. CD4 cell counts measured in these individuals provide novel information to estimate HIV disease progression and mortality rates off ART.

Methods

We used Bayesian multi‐parameter evidence synthesis to combine data on (1) cross‐sectional CD4 cell counts among untreated adults living with HIV from 10 PHIA surveys, (2) survival after HIV seroconversion in East African seroconverter cohorts, (3) post‐seroconversion CD4 counts and (4) mortality rates by CD4 count predominantly from European, North American and Australian seroconverter cohorts. We used incremental mixture importance sampling to estimate HIV natural history and ART uptake parameters used in the Spectrum software. We validated modelled trends in CD4 count at ART initiation against ART initiator cohorts in sub‐Saharan Africa.

Results

Median untreated HIV survival decreased with increasing age at seroconversion, from 12.5 years [95% credible interval (CrI): 12.1–12.7] at ages 15–24 to 7.2 years (95% CrI: 7.1–7.7) at ages 45–54. Older age was associated with lower initial CD4 counts, faster CD4 count decline and higher HIV‐related mortality rates. Our estimates suggested a weaker association between ART uptake and HIV‐related mortality rates than previously assumed in Spectrum. Modelled CD4 counts in untreated people living with HIV matched recent household survey data well, though some intercountry variation in frequencies of CD4 counts above 500 cells/mm³ was not explained. Trends in CD4 counts at ART initiation were comparable to data from ART initiator cohorts. An alternate model that stratified progression and mortality rates by sex did not improve model fit appreciably.

Conclusions

Synthesis of multiple data sources results in similar overall survival as previous Spectrum parameter assumptions but implies more rapid progression and longer survival in lower CD4 categories. New natural history parameter values improve consistency of model estimates with recent cross‐sectional CD4 data and trends in CD4 counts at ART initiation.

Effects of National Adoption of Treat-All Guidelines on Pre-Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) CD4 Testing and Viral Load Monitoring After ART initiation: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization's Treat-All guidance recommends CD4 testing before initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART), and routine viral load (VL) monitoring (over CD4 monitoring) for patients on ART.

METHODS

We used regression discontinuity analyses to estimate changes in CD4 testing and VL monitoring among 547 837 ART-naive patients enrolling in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care during 2006-2018 at 225 clinics in 26 countries where Treat-All policies were adopted. We examined CD4 testing within 12 months before and VL monitoring 6 months after ART initiation among adults (≥20 years), adolescents (10-19 years), and children (0-9 years) in low/lower-middle-income countries (L/LMICs) and high/upper-middle-income countries (H/UMICs).

RESULTS

Treat-All adoption led to an immediate decrease in pre-ART CD4 testing among adults in L/LMICs, from 57.0% to 48.1% (-8.9 percentage points [pp]; 95% CI: -11.0, -6.8), and a small increase in H/UMICs, from 90.1% to 91.7% (+1.6pp; 95% CI: 0.2, 3.0), with no changes among adolescents or children; decreases in pre-ART CD4 testing accelerated after Treat-All adoption in L/LMICs. In L/LMICs, VL monitoring after ART initiation was low among all patients in L/LMICs before Treat-All; while there was no immediate change at Treat-All adoption, VL monitoring trends significantly increased afterwards. VL monitoring increased among adults immediately after Treat-All adoption, from 58.2% to 61.1% (+2.9pp; 95% CI: 0.5, 5.4), with no significant changes among adolescents/children.

CONCLUSIONS

While on-ART VL monitoring has improved in L/LMICs, Treat-All adoption has accelerated and disparately worsened suboptimal pre-ART CD4 monitoring, which may compromise care outcomes for individuals with advanced HIV.

Post-migration acquisition of HIV: Estimates from four European countries, 2007 to 2016

BackgroundThe assumption that migrants acquire human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) before migration, particularly those from high prevalence areas, is common.AimWe assessed the place of HIV acquisition of migrants diagnosed in four European countries using surveillance data.MethodsUsing CD4+ T-cell count trajectories modelled to account for seroconversion bias, we estimated infection year of newly HIV-diagnosed migrants residing in the United Kingdom (UK), Belgium, Sweden and Italy with a known arrival year and CD4+ T-cell count at diagnosis. Multivariate analyses identified predictors for post-migration acquisition.ResultsBetween 2007 and 2016, migrants constituted 56% of people newly diagnosed with HIV in the UK, 62% in Belgium, 72% in Sweden and 29% in Italy. Of 23,595 migrants included, 60% were born in Africa and 70% acquired HIV heterosexually. An estimated 9,400 migrants (40%; interquartile range (IQR): 34-59) probably acquired HIV post-migration. This proportion was similar by risk group, sex and region of birth. Time since migration was a strong predictor of post-migration HIV acquisition: 91% (IQR: 87-95) among those arriving 10 or more years prior to diagnosis; 30% (IQR: 21-37) among those 1-5 years prior. Younger age at arrival was a predictor: 15-18 years (81%; IQR: 74-86), 19-25 years (53%; IQR: 45-63), 26-35 years (37%; IQR: 30-46) and 36 years and older (25%; IQR: 21-33).ConclusionsMigrants, regardless of origin, sex and exposure to HIV are at risk of acquiring HIV post-migration to Europe. Alongside accessible HIV testing, prevention activities must target migrant communities.

The Epidemiology of HIV in Oman, 1984-2018: A Nationwide Study from the Middle East

We used population-based data on all diagnosed people living with Human Immunodeficiency (HIV) reported to the National AIDS Programme in 1984–2018 to describe the HIV epidemiology in Oman. A total of 3060 Omanis were diagnosed with HIV from 1984 to 2018. The proportions of new infections attributed to sexual contact accounted for 56.3% (376/668) in 1984–1996 compared with 80.7% (630/780) in 2013–2018. Of 1417 patients with a documented CD4 count at the entry of care, 45.3% had a baseline CD4 count of <200 cells/mm³. Compared with heterosexuals, homosexuals had higher rates of advanced HIV disease [42.7% (388/908) vs 50.4% (136/270), respectively]. Rates of advanced disease and death within a year of HIV diagnosis rose consistently with age at diagnosis. Approximately half (48.8%) of the patients diagnosed in 1984–2018 had died by December 2018. The majority (85.6%; 572/668) of people who were diagnosed in 1984–1997 had died compared with 12.7% (99/780) of those diagnosed in 2013–2018. However, people died more recently had a higher proportion of death within a year of HIV diagnosis [74.7% (74/99) in 2013–2018 compared with 13.8% (79/572) in 1984–1996]. This study shows that the HIV epidemic in Oman is a low-prevalence one. Of concern, a large proportion of new HIV diagnoses continued to present late, which has resulted in a substantial increase in short-term mortality over the past 20 years. Nevertheless, we observed a remarkable decline in overall mortality over time, which may be explained by the improvement in the quality of HIV care in Oman.

Estimating HIV incidence, prevalence, and percent of undiagnosed infections in Taiwan using CD4 data

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Estimation of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic trend and percent of undiagnosed infections is an important measure for the assessment of HIV control programs. In this study, we aimed to investigate and estimate the HIV incidence, HIV prevalence, and percent of undiagnosed HIV infections in Taiwan using the CD4 depletion model.

METHODS

Data on newly reported HIV diagnoses during 2012-2019 were obtained from the National HIV/AIDS reporting and case management system. We used an Asian-adjusted CD4 depletion model to determine diagnosis delays and then used this distribution and HIV case surveillance data to estimate the incidence, prevalence and percent of undiagnosed infections.

RESULTS

The estimated HIV incidence rate decreased after 2012, from 9.4 per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.7 to 10.2) to 7.1 per 100,000 people (95% CI: 5.7 to 8.5) in 2019. The prevalence rate increased from 111 per 100,000 people (95% CI: 107 to 116) in 2012 to 158 per 100,000 people (95% CI: 146 to 169) in 2019, whereas the undiagnosed rate decreased from 21.5% (95% CI: 18.2%-24.8%) in 2012 to 12.1% (95% CI: 8.9%-15.2%) in 2019. In addition, the undiagnosed percentage in the population of men who have sex with men (MSM) also decreased from 28.8% to 13.6% during this period.

CONCLUSION

We found decreases in the HIV incidence and undiagnosed percentage from 2012 to 2019 in Taiwan. These findings highlight the importance of intensified HIV testing efforts to achieve the global 95-95-95 goals by 2030.

Immunological markers for identifying recent HIV infection in North-West India

Background & objectives

Being more efficient and widely used, limiting antigen (LAg)-avidity enzyme immunoassay (EIA) based on the recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) has been developed for differentiating recent and established HIV-1 infection. So far, LAg-avidity EIA has not been validated among the Indian population. Hence, the present study was planned to identify recent HIV infections in high risk patients in the North-West region of India using modified LAg-avidity RITA.

Methods

Four hundred HIV-positive high risk patients registered on pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme in the last one year, from five ART centres in North-Western States of India, were included for identifying the recent HIV infections. One hundred HIV-positive cases registered for pre-ART for greater than two years in ART centres were included for estimating false recent rate (FRR). Single-well LAg-avidity EIA-based modified RITA was used to identify recent HIV infection cases.

Results

Of the 400 HIV-1-positive samples, 64 (16%) were found to have been infected within the past 130 days. The proportion of recent HIV infections was 16.8 per cent (18/107) among female sex workers, 10.7 per cent (9/84) among men who have sex with men and 17.7 per cent (37/209) among injecting drug users. The FRR was one per cent (1/100).

Interpretation & conclusions

LAg-avidity EIA-based modified RITA provided good discrimination between recent and non-recent HIV infection, hence, it could be considered suitable for estimating HIV incidence in sentinel surveillance system in India.

Estimates of the Time From Seroconversion to Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Among People Newly Diagnosed With Human Immunodeficiency Virus From 2006 to 2015, New York City

BACKGROUND

We estimated the time from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation during an era of expanding HIV testing and treatment efforts.

METHODS

Applying CD4 depletion parameters from seroconverter cohort data to our population-based sample, we related the square root of the first pretreatment CD4 count to time of seroconversion through a linear mixed model and estimated the time from seroconversion.

RESULTS

Among 28 162 people diagnosed with HIV during 2006-2015, 89% initiated ART by June 2017. The median CD4 count at diagnosis increased from 326 (interquartile range [IQR], 132-504) cells/µL to 390 (IQR, 216-571) cells/µL from 2006 to 2015. The median time from estimated seroconversion to ART initiation decreased by 42% from 6.4 (IQR, 3.3-11.4) years in 2006 to 3.7 (IQR, 0.5-8.3) years in 2015. The time from estimated seroconversion to diagnosis decreased by 28%, from a median of 4.6 (IQR, 0.5-10.5) years to 3.3 (IQR, 0-8.1) years from 2006 to 2015, and the time from diagnosis to ART initiation reduced by 60%, from a median of 0.5 (IQR, 0.2-2.1) years to 0.2 (IQR, 0.1-0.3) years from 2006 to 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated time from seroconversion to ART initiation was reduced in tandem with expanded HIV testing and treatment efforts. While the time from diagnosis to ART initiation decreased to 0.2 years, the time from seroconversion to diagnosis was 3.3 years among people diagnosed in 2015, highlighting the need for more effective strategies for earlier HIV diagnosis.

BASHH 2018 UK national audit of HIV partner notification

HIV partner notification (PN) is a highly effective strategy to identify people living with undiagnosed HIV infection. This national audit of HIV PN is against the 2015 British Association of Sexual Health and HIV (BASHH)/British HIV Association (BHIVA)/Society of Sexual Health Advisers (SHAA)/National AIDS Trust (NAT) HIV PN standards, developed in response to the 2013 BASHH/BHIVA national HIV PN audit. We report significant improvements in the number of contacts tested per index case, likely due, in part, to clearer definitions as well as better ascertainment and reporting. There remains scope for improvement with informing and testing contactable contacts. Recommendations from this audit include further refinement of definitions and development of a national proforma for HIV PN.

Incident and Prevalent HIV Infections Attributed to Sexual Transmission in the United States, 2018

BACKGROUND

The Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America initiative aims to reduce new infections by 2030. Routine assessment of incident and prevalent HIV by transmission risk is essential for monitoring the impact of national, state, and local efforts to end the HIV epidemic.

METHODS

Data reported to the National HIV Surveillance System were used to estimate numbers of incident and prevalent HIV infection attributed to sexual transmission in the United States in 2018. The first CD4 result after diagnosis and a CD4 depletion model were used to generate estimates by transmission category, sex at birth, age group, and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

In 2018, there were an estimated 32,600 (50% confidence interval [CI], 31,800-33,400) incident and 984,000 (50% CI, 977,000-990,900) prevalent HIV infections attributed to sexual transmission in the United States. Male-to-male sexual contact comprised 74.8% and 69.1% of incident and prevalent HIV infections, respectively. Persons aged 25 to 34 years comprised 39.6% (12,900; 50% CI, 12,400-13,400) of incident infections; however, the number of prevalent infections was highest among persons 55 years and older (29.3%; 288,300 [50% CI, 285,600-291,000]). There were racial/ethnic differences in numbers of incident and prevalent infections among both men who have sex with men and persons with HIV attributable to heterosexual contact.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2018, most incident sexually transmitted HIV infections occurred in men who have sex with men, and the burden was disproportionate for persons aged 24 to 35 years, and Black/African American and Hispanic/Latino adults and adolescents. Efforts to increase the use of effective biomedical and behavioral prevention methods must be intensified to reach the goal to end the HIV epidemic in the United States.

Epidemiological factors associated with recent HIV infection among newly-diagnosed cases in Singapore, 2013-2017

Background

Early diagnosis is crucial in securing optimal outcomes in the HIV care cascade. Recent HIV infection (RHI) serves as an indicator of early detection in the course of HIV infection. Surveillance of RHI is important in uncovering at-risk groups in which HIV transmission is ongoing. The study objectives are to estimate the proportion of RHI among persons newly-diagnosed in 2013–2017, and to elucidate epidemiological factors associated with RHI in Singapore.

Methods

As part of the National HIV Molecular Surveillance Programme, residual plasma samples of treatment-naïve HIV-1 positive individuals were tested using the biotinylated peptide-capture enzyme immunoassay with a cutoff of normalized optical density ≤ 0.8 for evidence of RHI. A recent infection testing algorithm was applied for the classification of RHI. We identified risk factors associated with RHI using logistic regression analyses.

Results

A total of 701 newly-diagnosed HIV-infected persons were included in the study. The median age at HIV diagnosis was 38 years (interquartile range, 28–51). The majority were men (94.2%), and sexual route was the predominant mode of HIV transmission (98.3%). Overall, 133/701 (19.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] 16.2–22.0%) were classified as RHI. The proportions of RHI in 2015 (31.1%) and 2017 (31.0%) were significantly higher than in 2014 (11.2%). A significantly higher proportion of men having sex with men (23.4, 95% CI 19.6–27.6%) had RHI compared with heterosexual men (11.1, 95% CI 7.6–15.9%). Independent factors associated with RHI were: age 15–24 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.18, 95% CI 1.69–10.31) compared with ≥55 years; HIV diagnosis in 2015 (aOR 2.36, 95% CI 1.25–4.46) and 2017 (aOR 2.52, 95% CI 1.32–4.80) compared with 2013–2014; detection via voluntary testing (aOR 1.91, 95% CI 1.07–3.43) compared with medical care; and self-reported history of HIV test(s) prior to diagnosis (aOR 1.72, 95% CI 1.06–2.81).

Conclusion

Although there appears to be an increasing trend towards early diagnosis, persons with RHI remain a minority in Singapore. The strong associations observed between modifiable behaviors (voluntary testing and HIV testing history) and RHI highlight the importance of increasing the accessibility to HIV testing for at-risk groups.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10478-5.

HIV/AIDS treatment funding system to support the people affected by HIV/AIDS in Surakarta, Indonesia

People Living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA's) quality of life (QoL) is determined by the lifetime treatment sustainability. Republic of Indonesia Minister of Health's Decree Number 328 of 2003 stated that government subsidies the PLWHA's medication and treatment, despite not covering entire medication and treatment cost. The objective of research was to analyse the cost assumed by PLWHA in accessing HIV/AIDS treatment service in Surakarta, Indonesia. The target group in this case study was PLWHAs, and related stakeholders of medical treatment in one of Public Health Centers and a Public Hospital in Surakarta; AIDS Commission of Surakarta City; Solo Plus Peer Support Group and AIDS-Care NGO selected purposively. Data collection was carried out using observation, in-depth interview, and documentation. Method and data source triangulations were used to validate data that was then analysed using Grossman's Demand for Health Capital theory. The result of research showed that the sources of HIV/AIDS treatment cost were self-income, Social Insurance Administration Organization (BPJS) fund and Local Government subsidy. Admission and physican services are given for free to PLWHA because it has been paid by BPJS Fund or has been subsidied by Local Government. Otherwise, they should pay registration cost of IDR 50,000, in Public Hospital and IDR 75,000 in Private Hospital. Physician service costs IDR 50,000–IDR 200,000. VCT Counsellor costs IDR 35,000-IDR 150,000. Non-Subsidy ARV costs IDR 687,000. 1 bottle containing 60 TB meningitis drug capsules costs IDR 145,000 for 10–20 d use and maximally IDR 210,000, while herpes drug costs IDR 295,000. CD4 examination costs IDR 126,000-IDR 297,000, RNA Viral load IDR 1,275,000–IDR 1,471,000, Haematology IDR 60,000-IRD 90,000, Cholesterol and triglyceride IDR 100,000-IDR 250,000, and SGOT/SGPT IDR 100,000–IDR 200,000. There is monthly non-medical cost the patient should spend, including transportation cost to go to health centre, and food, beverage, and newspaper cost while waiting for the service. BPJS fund and local government subsidy relieved health economic burden of PLWHAs, so that the average HIV/AIDS treatment cost in PLWHAs was relatively low, less than 10% of expense. National Insurance System including BPJS fund and local government subsidy as the answer to the integration of HIV/AIDS treatment funding management into national insurance system had provided PLWHA a funding access involving prevention, care, support, and treatment, and mitigated the effect despite less optimum.

Subtype-specific differences in transmission cluster dynamics of HIV-1 B and CRF01_AE in New South Wales, Australia

INTRODUCTION

The human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) pandemic is characterized by numerous distinct sub-epidemics (clusters) that continually fuel local transmission. The aims of this study were to identify active growing clusters, to understand which factors most influence the transmission dynamics, how these vary between different subtypes and how this information might contribute to effective public health responses.

METHODS

We used HIV-1 genomic sequence data linked to demographic factors that accounted for approximately 70% of all new HIV-1 notifications in New South Wales (NSW). We assessed differences in transmission cluster dynamics between subtype B and circulating recombinant form 01_AE (CRF01_AE). Separate phylogenetic trees were estimated using 2919 subtype B and 473 CRF01_AE sequences sampled between 2004 and 2018 in combination with global sequence data and NSW-specific clades were classified as clusters, pairs or singletons. Significant differences in demographics between subtypes were assessed with Chi-Square statistics.

RESULTS

We identified 104 subtype B and 11 CRF01_AE growing clusters containing a maximum of 29 and 11 sequences for subtype B and CRF01_AE respectively. We observed a > 2-fold increase in the number of NSW-specific CRF01_AE clades over time. Subtype B clusters were associated with individuals reporting men who have sex with men (MSM) as their transmission risk factor, being born in Australia, and being diagnosed during the early stage of infection (p < 0.01). CRF01_AE infections clusters were associated with infections among individuals diagnosed during the early stage of infection (p < 0.05) and CRF01_AE singletons were more likely to be from infections among individuals reporting heterosexual transmission (p < 0.05). We found six subtype B clusters with an above-average growth rate (>1.5 sequences / 6-months) and which consisted of a majority of infections among MSM. We also found four active growing CRF01_AE clusters containing only infections among MSM. Finally, we found 47 subtype B and seven CRF01_AE clusters that contained a large gap in time (>1 year) between infections and may be indicative of intermediate transmissions via undiagnosed individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

The large number of active and growing clusters among MSM are the driving force of the ongoing epidemic in NSW for subtype B and CRF01_AE.

Perceptions of and barriers to HIV testing of women in Indonesia

Indonesia’s 2014 health reforms advocated for universal health coverage for all Indonesians. The reforms made provision for integrated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) programmes, with testing available at community health centres and hospitals for pregnant women and women of childbearing age. The question remains, though, as to whether testing has been effective. This article focuses on barriers women face accessing HIV testing and presents findings from the experiences of 18 HIV-positive women. To triangulate findings, interviews were conducted with 26 health workers, 9 non-governmental organisation workers and 12 HIV stakeholders. The article examines barriers to pregnant women’s access to HIV tests, showing that barriers relate to women not having reproductive health rights. It highlights reproductive rights noted in the Respectful Maternity Care Charter, and violations to them relevant to HIV testing in pregnancy. Five reported rights violations include: women being unable to access information; being unable to make informed decisions; having no right to confidentiality and privacy; experiencing ongoing discrimination; and having no right to timely HIV testing. The failure of Indonesia to protect these rights contributes to women being denied HIV testing. Findings show the need for increased HIV testing services for pregnant women and assert that health personnel and programme policy-makers need to be held accountable for the protection and fulfilment of women’s rights in respect of HIV testing. The findings show that policy makers must make changes to ensure health services improve, health professionals must be better trained, and women’s socio-cultural and political contexts must be considered.

Short Communication: Trends in Transmitted Drug Resistance in Treatment-Naive HIV Patients in Korea

Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in treatment-naive HIV patients can contribute to failure of initial antiretroviral therapy. In Korea, there has been a gradual increase in TDR, but the recent increase in the use of integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) could affect TDR trends and INSTI resistance mutations. We evaluated the patterns of TDR in newly diagnosed HIV patients over time from 2011 to 2019. We analyzed the genotypic resistance of strains in 336 patients and sequenced the integrase gene in 71 among 336 subjects. The overall prevalence of TDR was 5.9% (20 of 336 patients), and it showed a tendency to increase over time (5.1% in 2011-2013, 6.1% in 2014-2016, and 7.2% in 2017-2019; p = .3018). Furthermore, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance showed a marginally significant increase over time (1.45% in 2011-2013, 3.48% in 2014-2016, and 6.02% in 2017-2019; p = .0505). Regarding transmitted INSTI resistance mutation, there were no major INSTI resistance mutations but several accessory INSTI resistance mutations and predominant natural polymorphisms. This study shows several significant changes in TDR and suggests the importance of continuous surveillance of TDR and genetic variation in the integrase region.

Comparative effectiveness of interventions to improve the HIV continuum of care and HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis in Kenya: a model-based analysis

Background

In Western Kenya up to one-quarter of the adult population was human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected in 2012. The Ministry of Health, Médecins Sans Frontières, and partners implemented an HIV program that surpassed the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets. In this generalized epidemic, we compared the effectiveness of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with improving continuum of care.

Methods

We developed a dynamic microsimulation model to project HIV incidence and infections averted to 2030. We modeled 3 strategies compared to a 90-90-90 continuum of care base case: (1) scaling up the continuum of care to 95-95-95, (2) PrEP targeting young adults with 10% coverage, and (3) scaling up to 95-95-95 and PrEP combined.

Results

In the base case, by 2030 HIV incidence was 0.37/100 person-years. Improving continuum levels to 95-95-95 averted 21.5% of infections, PrEP averted 8.0%, and combining 95-95-95 and PrEP averted 31.8%. Sensitivity analysis showed that PrEP coverage had to exceed 20% to avert as many infections as reaching 95-95-95.

Conclusions

In a generalized HIV epidemic with continuum of care levels at 90-90-90, improving the continuum to 95-95-95 is more effective than providing PrEP. Continued improvement in the continuum of care will have the greatest impact on decreasing new HIV infections.

New strategies for prevention of HIV among Japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model

HIV prevalence in Japan continues to increase among men who have sex with men (MSM). We built a mathematical model to describe the HIV epidemic, including acute infection and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and projected the model to 2050. We compared current testing and treatment policies, a scenario where Japan achieves UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, three PrEP scenarios defined by different coverage levels of 25%, 50%, and 75% among the 20% of MSM with the highest risk behavior, and combinations of these scenarios. With no change in interventions prevalence of HIV among MSM will rise to 9.0% in 2050. If Japan achieves full UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, 84.9% of these infections would be averted. Under 50% PrEP with no expansion of testing and treatment, prevalence will reach 2.6% and 62.1% of infections would be averted by 2050. If in addition UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals are achieved, 92.7% of HIV infections would be prevented by 2050. All interventions tested in this model were cost-saving relative to the base case. Both PrEP and enhanced ART strategies can be cost-saving, and if Japan enhances its testing program for MSM and introduces PrEP, it has the potential to effectively eliminate new infections in the next 30 years.

Impact of viral suppression among persons with HIV upon estimated HIV incidence between 2010 and 2015 in the United States

BACKGROUND

The suppression of viremia among persons with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy has been hypothesized to reduce HIV incidence at the population level. We investigated the impact of state level viral suppression among PWH in the United States on estimated HIV incidence between 2010 and 2015.

METHODS

Viral suppression data and HIV incidence estimates from the National HIV Surveillance System were available from 29 states and the District of Columbia. We assumed a one year delay for viral suppression to impact incidence. Poisson regression models were used to calculate the estimated annual percent change (EAPC) in incidence rate. We employed a multivariable mixed-effects Poisson regression model to assess the effects of state level race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, percent men who have sex with men (MSM) and hepatitis C virus prevalence as a proxy for injection drug use on HIV incidence.

FINDINGS

Fitted HIV incidence for 30 jurisdictions declined from 11.5 in 2010 to 10.0 per 100,000 population by 2015 corresponding with an EAPC of -2.67 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] -2.95, -2.38). Southern states experienced the highest estimated incidence by far throughout this period but upon adjustment for viral suppression and demographics there was a 36% lower incidence rate than Northeast states (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 0.64; 95%CI 0.42, 0.99). For every 10 percentage point (pp) increase in viral suppression there was an adjusted 4% decline in HIV incidence rate in the subsequent year (aRR 0.96; 95%CI 0.93, 0.99). While controlling for viral suppression, HIV incidence rate increased by 42% (aRR 1.42 95%CI 1.31, 1.54) for every 5 pp increase in percent Black race and by 27% (aRR 1.27 95%CI 1.10, 1.48) for every 1 pp increase in percent MSM in states.

INTERPRETATION

A decline in estimated HIV incidence from 2010 to 2015 was associated with increasing viral suppression in the United States. Race and sexual orientation were important HIV acquisition risk factors.

Identifying major drivers of incident HIV infection using recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs) to precisely inform targeted prevention

BACKGROUND

Recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs) incorporating clinical information with the HIV recency assay have been proven to accurately classify recent infection. However, little evidence exists on whether RITAs would help in precisely identifying major drivers of the ongoing HIV epidemic.

METHODS

HIV recency test results and clinical information were collected from 1152 newly diagnosed HIV cases between 2015 and 2017 in Dehong prefecture of Yunnan province, and the efficacy of four different RITAs in identifying risk factors for new HIV infection was compared.

RESULTS

RITA 1 uses the recency test only. RITA 2 and RITA 3 combine the recency test with CD4+ T cell count and viral load (VL), respectively. RITA 4 combines both CD4+ T cell count and VL. All RITAs identified the MSM group and young people between 15 and 24 years as risk factors for incident HIV infection. RITA 3 and RITA 4 further identified the Dai ethnic minority as a risk factor, which had not been identified before when only the HIV recency test was used.

CONCLUSIONS

By comparing different RITAs, we determined that greater accuracy in classifying recent HIV infection could help elucidate major drivers impacting the ongoing epidemic and thus inform targeted interventions.

Asymptomatic Adolescent HIV: Identifying a Role for Universal HIV Screening in the Pediatric Emergency Department

Adolescents account for most undiagnosed HIV infections in the United States. Although the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends universal HIV screening for all patients ≥13 years, <10% of adolescents have been tested for HIV. To identify earlier opportunities for adolescent HIV prevention and diagnosis in a region of high HIV prevalence, we sought to describe pediatric emergency department (PED) visits made by a retrospective cohort of adolescents who were later diagnosed with HIV as young adults (<25 years) through an adult emergency department (ED) universal HIV screening program. CD4+ count was used to estimate the time of HIV infection before diagnosis and all PED visits in the 10 years before diagnosis were analyzed. Universal HIV screening in the adult ED diagnosed 193 young adults (median 22 years; 90% men; 29% stage 3); 70% had CD4+ at diagnosis that was used to estimate time of infection (mean 3.8 years). Thirty-eight HIV-infected young adults had a total of 109 PED visits in the 10 years before HIV diagnosis. Sexual history was documented in 12% of PED visits and a sexually transmitted infection test was sent in 6%. Ten HIV-infected young adults had 26 PED visits during the time in which they were likely already infected with HIV, each a potential missed opportunity for earlier diagnosis. HIV-infected and at-risk adolescents are underrecognized in PED visits. Implementation of CDC-recommended universal screening may lead to earlier diagnoses and improve outcomes; the PED may also be critical in identifying adolescents eligible for preexposure prophylaxis.

Assessing linear CD4 decline quantifying diagnosis delay after HIV seroconversion: assessing the linearity assumption of CD4 decline

PURPOSE

To estimate time from seroconversion to diagnosis, researchers have modeled time based on CD4 decline, assuming the square root of the CD4 count decreases linearly over time before antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation. If true, utilizing CD4 counts reported anytime in the pre-ART period would result in estimates of diagnosis delay that are not appreciably different.

METHODS

We applied CD4 depletion model parameters from seroconverter cohorts to New York City residents diagnosed from 2006 to 2015, having two or more pre-ART CD4 counts.

RESULTS

Median diagnosis delays based on first or second pre-ART CD4 counts were similar (n = 12,849; 2.8 years, interquartile range [IQR]: 0-7.7, and 2.8 years, IQR: 0-7.6, respectively; P = .09, Wilcoxon signed-rank test). Among people whose second pre-ART CD4 count was measured more than 6 months after diagnosis (n = 2761), the average diagnosis delay based on first pre-ART CD4 count was shorter (1.5 years, IQR: 0-5.4) than the second pre-ART CD4 count (1.7 years, IQR: 0-6.0) but not significantly (P = .12).

CONCLUSIONS

Results are consistent with the linearity assumption of the CD4 depletion model. To estimate population-level diagnosis delay, researchers may use pre-ART CD4 counts reported more than 6 months post-diagnosis.

Cost-effectiveness and budget effect of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV-1 prevention in Germany from 2018 to 2058

BackgroundPre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly effective HIV prevention strategy for men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). The high cost of PrEP has until recently been a primary barrier to its use. In 2017, generic PrEP became available, reducing the costs by 90%.AimOur objective was to assess cost-effectiveness and costs of introducing PrEP in Germany.MethodsWe calibrated a deterministic mathematical model to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic among MSM in Germany. PrEP was targeted to 30% of high-risk MSM. It was assumed that PrEP reduces the risk of HIV infection by 85%. Costs were calculated from a healthcare payer perspective using a 40-year time horizon starting in 2018.ResultsPrEP can avert 21,000 infections (interquartile range (IQR): 16,000-27,000) in the short run (after 2 years scale-up and 10 years full implementation). HIV care is predicted to cost EUR 36.2 billion (IQR: 32.4-40.4 billion) over the coming 40 years. PrEP can increase costs by at most EUR 150 million within the first decade after introduction. Ten years after introduction, PrEP can become cost-saving, accumulating to savings of HIV-related costs of EUR 5.1 billion (IQR: 3.5-6.9 billion) after 40 years. In a sensitivity analysis, PrEP remained cost-saving even at a 70% price reduction of antiretroviral drug treatment and a lower effectiveness of PrEP.ConclusionIntroduction of PrEP in Germany is predicted to result in substantial health benefits because of reductions in HIV infections. Short-term financial investments in providing PrEP will result in substantial cost-savings in the long term.

Estimating the probability of diagnosis within 1 year of HIV acquisition

BACKGROUND

Early diagnosis of HIV is important for the prevention of ongoing transmission and development of HIV-related illness. The purpose of this study is to develop an outcome indicator to monitor the progress in early HIV diagnosis.

METHODS

Persons diagnosed with HIV in New York City and their first CD4 test results were used to estimate the distribution of HIV diagnosis delay, based on a CD4 count depletion model. The distribution was then used to estimate the probability of diagnosis within 1 year of HIV acquisition, which is the number of cases diagnosed in a given calendar year for which diagnosis occurred within 1 year of acquisition divided by the number of incident cases in that calendar year.

RESULTS

In 2012-2016, the estimated annual probability of diagnosis within 1 year of HIV acquisition in New York City was 43.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 37.9-48.2%), 42.5% (95% CI: 36.8--48.3%), 42.8% (95% CI: 36.3--49.2%), 42.9% (95% CI: 35.4--50.3%), and 42.2% (95% CI: 33.1--51.2%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

National and local health jurisdictions should consider using this new outcome indicator, the probability of diagnosis within 1 year of HIV acquisition, to monitor their progress in early HIV diagnosis.

Cost utility analysis of HIV pre exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in Israel

Background

Between 2011 and 2015, Men who have sex with men (MSM) accounted for nearly half of new HIV cases among men in Israel. This study carries out a cost-utility analysis of PrEP (HIV Pre Exposure Prophylaxis), an antiretroviral medication that can protect against the acquisition of HIV infection, whose incidence rate in Israel is around 1.74 per 1000 MSM.

Method

Epidemiological, demographic, health service utilisation and economic data were integrated into a spread-sheet model in order to calculate the cost per averted disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of the intervention from a societal perspective, in mid-2018 US$ using a 3% discount rate. Cost utility analyses were performed for both types of PrEP delivery (continuous regimen and on-demand), together with sensitivity analyses on numbers of condom users who take up PrEP (baseline 25%) and subsequently abandon condom use (baseline 75%), PrEP efficacy (baseline 86%), PrEP prices and monitoring costs.

Results

Around 21.3% of MSM are high risk (as defined by having unprotected anal intercourse). Offering PrEP to this group would have a ten year net cost of around 1563 million USD, preventing 493 persons from becoming HIV-positive, averting around 1616 DALYs at a cost per averted DALY of around 967,744 USD. This will render the intervention to be not cost-effective. PrEP drug prices would have to fall dramatically (by 90.7%) for the intervention to become cost-effective (i.e. having a cost per averted DALY less than thrice GNP per capita) in Israel. PrEP remains not cost-effective (at 475,673 USD per averted DALY) even if intervention costs were reduced by using an “on demand” instead of a daily schedule. Even if there were no changes in condom use, the resultant 411,694 USD cost-utility ratio is still not cost-effective.

Conclusions

Despite PrEPs high effectiveness against HIV, PrEP was found not to be cost-effective in the Israeli context because of a combination of relatively low HIV incidence, high PrEP costs, with a likelyhood that some low-risk MSM (ie: who use condoms) may well begin taking PrEP and as a consequence many of these will abandon condom use. Therefore, ways of minimizing these last two phenomena need to be found.