How accessible are coral reefs to people? A global assessment based on travel time

Three-dimensional conservation planning of fish biodiversity metrics to achieve the deep-sea 30×30 conservation target

Accelerating rate of human impact and environmental change severely affects marine biodiversity and increases the urgency to implement the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) 30×30 plan for conserving 30% of sea areas by 2030. However, area-based conservation targets are complex to identify in a 3-dimensional (3D) ocean where deep-sea features such as seamounts have been seldom studied mostly due to challenging methodologies to implement at great depths. Yet, the use of emerging technologies, such as environmental DNA combined with modern modeling frameworks, could help address the problem. We collected environmental DNA, echosounder acoustic, and video data at 15 seamounts and deep island slopes across the Coral Sea. We modeled 7 fish community metrics and the abundances of 45 individual species and molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs) in benthic and pelagic waters (down to 600-m deep) with boosted regression trees and generalized joint attribute models to describe biodiversity on seamounts and deep slopes and identify 3D protection solutions for achieving the CBD area target in New Caledonia (1.4 million km2). We prioritized the identified conservation units in a 3D space, based on various biodiversity targets, to meet the goal of protecting at least 30% of the spatial domain, with a focus on areas with high biodiversity. The relationship between biodiversity protection targets and the spatial area protected by the solution was linear. The scenario protecting 30% of each biodiversity metric preserved almost 30% of the considered spatial domain and accounted for the 3D distribution of biodiversity. Our study paves the way for the use of combined data collection methodologies to improve biodiversity estimates in 3D structured marine environments for the selection of conservation areas and for the use of biodiversity targets to achieve area-based international targets.

Testing for concordance between predicted species richness, past prioritization, and marine protected area designations in the western Indian Ocean

Scientific advances in environmental data coverage and machine learning algorithms have improved the ability to make large-scale predictions where data are missing. These advances allowed us to develop a spatially resolved proxy for predicting numbers of tropical nearshore marine taxa. A diverse marine environmental spatial database was used to model numbers of taxa from ∼1000 field sites, and the predictions were applied to all 7039 6.25-km2 reef cells in 9 ecoregions and 11 nations of the western Indian Ocean. Our proxy for total numbers of taxa was based on the positive correlation (r2 = 0.24) of numbers of taxa of hard corals and 5 highly diverse reef fish families. Environmental relationships indicated that the number of fish species was largely influenced by biomass, nearness to people, governance, connectivity, and productivity and that coral taxa were influenced mostly by physicochemical environmental variability. At spatial delineations of province, ecoregion, nation, and strength of spatial clustering, we compared areas of conservation priority based on our total species proxy with those identified in 3 previous priority-setting reports and with the protected area database. Our method identified 119 locations that fit 3 numbers of taxa (hard coral, fish, and their combination) and 4 spatial delineations (nation, ecoregion, province, and reef clustering) criteria. Previous publications on priority setting identified 91 priority locations of which 6 were identified by all reports. We identified 12 locations that fit our 12 criteria and corresponded with 3 previously identified locations, 65 that aligned with at least 1 past report, and 28 that were new locations. Only 34% of the 208 marine protected areas in this province overlapped with identified locations with high numbers of predicted taxa. Differences occurred because past priorities were frequently based on unquantified perceptions of remoteness and preselected priority taxa. Our environment-species proxy and modeling approach can be considered among other important criteria for making conservation decisions.

Tropical fishery nutrient production depends on biomass-based management

The need to enhance nutrient production from tropical ecosystems to feed the poor could potentially create a new framework for fisheries science and management. Early recommendations have included targeting small fishes and increasing the species richness of fish catches, which could represent a departure from more traditional approaches such as biomass-based management. To test these recommendations, we compared the outcomes of biomass-based management with hypothesized factors influencing nutrient density in nearshore artisanal fish catches in the Western Indian Ocean. We found that enhancing nutrient production depends primarily on achieving biomass-based targets. Catches dominated by low- and mid-trophic level species with smaller body sizes and faster turnover were associated with modest increases in nutrient densities, but the variability in nutrient density was small relative to human nutritional requirements. Therefore, tropical fishery management should focus on restoring biomass to achieve maximum yields and sustainability, particularly for herbivorous fishes.

Divergent responses of pelagic and benthic fish body-size structure to remoteness and protection from humans

Animal body-size variation influences multiple processes in marine ecosystems, but habitat heterogeneity has prevented a comprehensive assessment of size across pelagic (midwater) and benthic (seabed) systems along anthropic gradients. In this work, we derive fish size indicators from 17,411 stereo baited-video deployments to test for differences between pelagic and benthic responses to remoteness from human pressures and effectiveness of marine protected areas (MPAs). From records of 823,849 individual fish, we report divergent responses between systems, with pelagic size structure more profoundly eroded near human markets than benthic size structure, signifying greater vulnerability of pelagic systems to human pressure. Effective protection of benthic size structure can be achieved through MPAs placed near markets, thereby contributing to benthic habitat restoration and the recovery of associated fishes. By contrast, recovery of the world's largest and most endangered fishes in pelagic systems requires the creation of highly protected areas in remote locations, including on the High Seas, where protection efforts lag.

Evidence for managing herbivores for reef resilience

Herbivore management is an important tool for resilience-based approaches to coral reef conservation, and evidence-based science is needed to enact successful management. We synthesized data from multiple monitoring programs in Hawai'i to measure herbivore biomass and benthic condition over a 10-year period preceding any major coral bleaching. We analysed data from 20 242 transects alongside data on 27 biophysical and human drivers and found herbivore biomass was highly variable throughout Hawai'i, with high values in remote locations and the lowest values near population centres. Both human and biophysical drivers explained variation in herbivore biomass, and among the human drivers both fishing and land-based pollution had negative effects on biomass. We also found evidence that herbivore functional group biomass is strongly linked to benthic condition, and that benthic condition is sensitive to changes in herbivore biomass associated with fishing. We show that when herbivore biomass is below 80% of potential biomass, benthic condition is predicted to decline. We also show that a range of management actions, including area-specific fisheries regulations and gear restrictions, can increase parrotfish biomass. Together, these results provide lines of evidence to support managing herbivores as an effective strategy for maintaining or bolstering reef resilience in a changing climate.

DNA barcoding the ichthyofauna of the Beibu Gulf: Implications for fisheries management in a seafood market hub

The Beibu Gulf in China is situated in the tropics, in the western Pacific Ocean. It is an emblematic region combining proximity to a marine biodiversity hotspot and a major seafood hub. Intensification of marine fishing and ocean warming led to a drastic decline in fish populations in the Beibu Gulf during the last decades. This situation urges the development of molecular resources of the Beibu Gulf fish fauna in order to enable automated molecular identifications at the species level for next-generation monitoring. With this objective, we present the results of a large-scale campaign to DNA barcode fishes of the Beibu Gulf. We successfully generated 789 new DNA barcodes corresponding to 263 species which, together with 291 sequences mined from Genbank and BOLD, resulted in a reference library of 1080 sequences from 285 species. Based on the use of four DNA-based species delimitation methods (BIN, ASAP, mPTP, mGMYC), a total of 285 Molecular Operational Taxonomical Units (MOTUs). A single case of cryptic diversity was detected in Scomberomorus guttatus and a single species pair was not captured by delimitation methods. Intraspecific K2P genetic distances averaged 0.36% among sequences within species, whereas K2P genetic distances among species within genera averaged 6.96%. The most speciose families in open water trawling differ from those at fish market, and discrepancies with historical data are discussed in the light of recently documented stock collapses.

Comparing Seamounts and Coral Reefs with eDNA and BRUVS Reveals Oases and Refuges on Shallow Seamounts

Seamounts are the least known ocean biome. Considered biodiversity hotspots, biomass oases, and refuges for megafauna, large gaps exist in their real diversity relative to other ecosystems like coral reefs. Using environmental DNA metabarcoding (eDNA) and baited video (BRUVS), we compared fish assemblages across five environments of different depths: coral reefs (15 m), shallow seamounts (50 m), continental slopes (150 m), intermediate seamounts (250 m), and deep seamounts (500 m). We modeled assemblages using 12 environmental variables and found depth to be the main driver of fish diversity and biomass, although other variables like human accessibility were important. Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) revealed a strong negative effect of depth on species richness, segregating coral reefs from deep-sea environments. Surprisingly, BRT showed a hump-shaped effect of depth on fish biomass, with significantly lower biomass on coral reefs than in shallowest deep-sea environments. Biomass of large predators like sharks was three times higher on shallow seamounts (50 m) than on coral reefs. The five studied environments showed quite distinct assemblages. However, species shared between coral reefs and deeper-sea environments were dominated by highly mobile large predators. Our results suggest that seamounts are no diversity hotspots for fish. However, we show that shallower seamounts form biomass oases and refuges for threatened megafauna, suggesting that priority should be given to their protection.

Sustainable reference points for multispecies coral reef fisheries

Sustainably managing fisheries requires regular and reliable evaluation of stock status. However, most multispecies reef fisheries around the globe tend to lack research and monitoring capacity, preventing the estimation of sustainable reference points against which stocks can be assessed. Here, combining fish biomass data for >2000 coral reefs, we estimate site-specific sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries and use these and available catch estimates to assess the status of global coral reef fish stocks. We reveal that >50% of sites and jurisdictions with available information have stocks of conservation concern, having failed at least one fisheries sustainability benchmark. We quantify the trade-offs between biodiversity, fish length, and ecosystem functions relative to key benchmarks and highlight the ecological benefits of increasing sustainability. Our approach yields multispecies sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries using environmental conditions, a promising means for enhancing the sustainability of the world's coral reef fisheries.

Coral reefs benefit from reduced land-sea impacts under ocean warming

Coral reef ecosystems are being fundamentally restructured by local human impacts and climate-driven marine heatwaves that trigger mass coral bleaching and mortality1. Reducing local impacts can increase reef resistance to and recovery from bleaching2. However, resource managers lack clear advice on targeted actions that best support coral reefs under climate change3 and sector-based governance means most land- and sea-based management efforts remain siloed4. Here we combine surveys of reef change with a unique 20-year time series of land-sea human impacts that encompassed an unprecedented marine heatwave in Hawai'i. Reefs with increased herbivorous fish populations and reduced land-based impacts, such as wastewater pollution and urban runoff, had positive coral cover trajectories predisturbance. These reefs also experienced a modest reduction in coral mortality following severe heat stress compared to reefs with reduced fish populations and enhanced land-based impacts. Scenario modelling indicated that simultaneously reducing land-sea human impacts results in a three- to sixfold greater probability of a reef having high reef-builder cover four years postdisturbance than if either occurred in isolation. International efforts to protect 30% of Earth's land and ocean ecosystems by 2030 are underway5. Our results reveal that integrated land-sea management could help achieve coastal ocean conservation goals and provide coral reefs with the best opportunity to persist in our changing climate.

Drivers of global mangrove loss and gain in social-ecological systems

Mangrove forests store high amounts of carbon, protect communities from storms, and support fisheries. Mangroves exist in complex social-ecological systems, hence identifying socioeconomic conditions associated with decreasing losses and increasing gains remains challenging albeit important. The impact of national governance and conservation policies on mangrove conservation at the landscape-scale has not been assessed to date, nor have the interactions with local economic pressures and biophysical drivers. Here, we assess the relationship between socioeconomic and biophysical variables and mangrove change across coastal geomorphic units worldwide from 1996 to 2016. Globally, we find that drivers of loss can also be drivers of gain, and that drivers have changed over 20 years. The association with economic growth appears to have reversed, shifting from negatively impacting mangroves in the first decade to enabling mangrove expansion in the second decade. Importantly, we find that community forestry is promoting mangrove expansion, whereas conversion to agriculture and aquaculture, often occurring in protected areas, results in high loss. Sustainable development, community forestry, and co-management of protected areas are promising strategies to reverse mangrove losses, increasing the capacity of mangroves to support human-livelihoods and combat climate change.

Co-occurring anthropogenic stressors reduce the timeframe of environmental viability for the world's coral reefs

Anthropogenic disturbances are posing unprecedented challenges to the persistence of ecosystems worldwide. The speed at which these disturbances reach an ecosystem's tolerance thresholds will determine the time available for adaptation and conservation. Here, we aim to calculate the year after which a given environmental stressor permanently exceeds the bounds of an ecosystem's tolerance. Ecosystem thresholds are here defined as limits in a given stressor beyond which ecosystems have showed considerable changes in community assembly and functioning, becoming remnants of what they once were, but not necessarily leading to species extirpation or extinction. Using the world's coral reefs as a case example, we show that the projected effects of marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, storms, land-based pollution, and local human stressors are being underestimated considerably by looking at disturbances independently. Given the spatial complementarity in which numerous disturbances impact the world's coral reefs, we show that the timelines of environmental suitability are halved when all disturbances are analyzed simultaneously, as opposed to independently. Under business-as-usual scenarios, the median year after which environmental conditions become unsuitable for the world's remaining coral reefs was, at worse, 2050 for any one disturbance alone (28 years left); but when analyzed concurrently, this date was shortened to 2035 (13 years left). When analyzed together, disturbances reduced the date of environmental suitability because areas that may remain suitable under one disturbance could become unsuitable by any of several other variables. The significance of co-occurring disturbances at reducing timeframes of environmental suitability was evident even under optimistic scenarios. The best-case scenario, characterized by strong mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and optimistic human development, resulted in 41% of global coral reefs with unsuitable conditions by 2100 under any one disturbance independently; yet when analyzed in combination up to 64% of the world's coral reefs could face unsuitable environmental conditions by one disturbance or another. Under the worst-case scenario, nearly all coral reef ecosystems worldwide (approximately 99%) will permanently face unsuitable conditions by 2055 in at least one of the disturbances analyzed. Prior studies have indicated the projected dire effects of climate change on coral reefs by mid-century; by analyzing a multitude of projected disturbances, our study reveals a much more severe prognosis for the world's coral reefs as they have significantly less time to adapt while highlighting the urgent need to tackle available solutions to human disturbances.

Linking key human-environment theories to inform the sustainability of coral reefs

Effective solutions to the ongoing "coral reef crisis" will remain limited until the underlying drivers of coral reef degradation are better understood. Here, we conduct a global-scale study of how four key metrics of ecosystem states and processes on coral reefs (top predator presence, reef fish biomass, trait diversity, and parrotfish scraping potential) are explained by 11 indicators based on key human-environment theories from the social sciences. Our global analysis of >1,500 reefs reveals three key findings. First, the proximity of the nearest market has the strongest and most consistent relationships with these ecosystem metrics. This finding is in keeping with a body of terrestrial research on how market accessibility shapes agricultural practices, but the integration of these concepts in marine systems is nascent. Second, our global study shows that resource conditions tend to display a n-shaped relationship with socioeconomic development. Specifically, the probabilities of encountering a top predator, fish biomass, and fish trait diversity were highest where human development was moderate but lower where development was either high or low. This finding contrasts with previous regional-scale research demonstrating an environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis (which predicts a U-shaped relationship between socioeconomic development and resource conditions). Third, together, our ecosystem metrics are best explained by the integration of different human-environment theories. Our best model includes the interactions between indicators from different theoretical perspectives, revealing how marine reserves can have different outcomes depending on how far they are from markets and human settlements, as well as the size of the surrounding human population.

Offshore platforms as novel ecosystems: A case study from Australia's Northwest Shelf

The decommissioning of offshore oil and gas platforms typically involves removing some or all of the associated infrastructure and the consequent destruction of the associated marine ecosystem that has developed over decades. There is increasing evidence of the important ecological role played by offshore platforms. Concepts such as novel ecosystems allow stakeholders to consider the ecological role played by each platform in the decommissioning process. This study focused on the Wandoo field in Northwest Australia as a case study for the application of the novel ecosystem concept to the decommissioning of offshore platforms. Stereo-baited remote underwater video systems were used to assess the habitat composition and fish communities at Wandoo, as well as two control sites: a sandy one that resembled the Wandoo site pre-installation, and one characterized by a natural reef as a control for natural hard substrate and vertical relief. We found denser macrobenthos habitat at the Wandoo site than at either of the control sites, which we attributed to the exclusion of seabed trawling around the Wandoo infrastructure. We also found that the demersal and pelagic taxonomic assemblages at Wandoo more closely resemble those at a natural reef than those which would likely have been present pre-installation, but these assemblages are still unique in a regional context. The demersal assemblage is characterized by reef-associated species with higher diversity than those at the sand control and natural reef control sites, with the pelagic community characterized by species associated with oil platforms in other regions. These findings suggest that a novel ecosystem has emerged in the Wandoo field. It is likely that many of the novel qualities of this ecosystem would be lost under decommissioning scenarios that involve partial or complete removal. This study provides an example for classifying offshore platforms as novel ecosystems.

Remoteness does not enhance coral reef resilience

Remote coral reefs are thought to be more resilient to climate change due to their isolation from local stressors like fishing and pollution. We tested this hypothesis by measuring the relationship between local human influence and coral community resilience. Surprisingly, we found no relationship between human influence and resistance to disturbance and some evidence that areas with greater human development may recover from disturbance faster than their more isolated counterparts. Our results suggest remote coral reefs are imperiled by climate change, like so many other geographically isolated ecosystems, and are unlikely to serve as effective biodiversity arks. Only drastic and rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will ensure coral survival. Our results also indicate that some reefs close to large human populations were relatively resilient. Focusing research and conservation resources on these more accessible locations has the potential to provide new insights and maximize conservation outcomes.

Ecological dependencies make remote reef fish communities most vulnerable to coral loss

Ecosystems face both local hazards, such as over-exploitation, and global hazards, such as climate change. Since the impact of local hazards attenuates with distance from humans, local extinction risk should decrease with remoteness, making faraway areas safe havens for biodiversity. However, isolation and reduced anthropogenic disturbance may increase ecological specialization in remote communities, and hence their vulnerability to secondary effects of diversity loss propagating through networks of interacting species. We show this to be true for reef fish communities across the globe. An increase in fish-coral dependency with the distance of coral reefs from human settlements, paired with the far-reaching impacts of global hazards, increases the risk of fish species loss, counteracting the benefits of remoteness. Hotspots of fish risk from fish-coral dependency are distinct from those caused by direct human impacts, increasing the number of risk hotspots by ~30% globally. These findings might apply to other ecosystems on Earth and depict a world where no place, no matter how remote, is safe for biodiversity, calling for a reconsideration of global conservation priorities.

Collapsing ecosystem functions on an inshore coral reef

Ecosystem functions underpin productivity and key services to humans, such as food provision. However, as the severity of environmental stressors intensifies, it is becoming increasingly unclear if, and to what extent, critical functions and services can be sustained. This issue is epitomised on coral reefs, an ecosystem at the forefront of environmental transitions. We provide a functional profile of a coral reef ecosystem, linking time-series data to quantified processes. The data reveal a prolonged collapse of ecosystem functions in this previously resilient system. The results suggest that sediment accumulation in algal turfs has led to a decline in resource yields to herbivorous fishes and a decrease in fish-based ecosystem functions, including a collapse of both fish biomass and productivity. Unfortunately, at present, algal turf sediment accumulation is rarely monitored nor managed in coral reef systems. Our examination of functions through time highlights the value of directly assessing functions, their potential vulnerability, and the capacity of algal turf sediments to overwhelm productive high-diversity coral reef ecosystems.

A review of the combined effects of climate change and other local human stressors on the marine environment

Climate change (CC) is a key, global driver of change of marine ecosystems. At local and regional scales, other local human stressors (LS) can interact with CC and modify its effects on marine ecosystems. Understanding the response of the marine environment to the combined effects of CC and LS is crucial to inform marine ecosystem-based management and planning, yet our knowledge of the potential effects of such interactions is fragmented. At a global scale, we explored how cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) have addressed CC in the marine realm and discuss progress and shortcomings of current approaches. For this we conducted a systematic review on how CEAs investigated at different levels of biological organization ecological responses, functional aspects, and the combined effect of CC and HS. Globally, the effects of 52 LS and of 27 CC-related stressors on the marine environment have been studied in combination, such as industrial fisheries with change in temperature, or sea level rise with artisanal fisheries, marine litter, change in sediment load and introduced alien species. CC generally intensified the effects of LS at species level. At trophic groups and ecosystem levels, the effects of CC either intensified or mitigated the effects of other HS depending on the trophic groups or the environmental conditions involved, thus suggesting that the combined effects of CC and LS are context-dependent and vary among and within ecosystems. Our results highlight that large-scale assessments on the spatial interaction and combined effects of CC and LS remain limited. More importantly, our results strengthen the urgent need of CEAs to capture local-scale effects of stressors that can exacerbate climate-induced changes. Ultimately, this will allow identifying management measures that aid counteracting CC effects at relevant scales.

Biodiversity increases ecosystem functions despite multiple stressors on coral reefs

Positive relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) highlight the importance of conserving biodiversity to maintain key ecosystem functions and associated services. Although natural systems are rapidly losing biodiversity due to numerous human-caused stressors, our understanding of how multiple stressors influence BEF relationships comes largely from small, experimental studies. Here, using remote assemblages of coral reef fishes, we demonstrate strong, non-saturating relationships of biodiversity with two ecosystem functions: biomass and productivity. These positive relationships were robust both to an extreme heatwave that triggered coral bleaching and to invasive rats which disrupt nutrient subsidies from native seabirds. Despite having only minor effects on BEF relationships, both stressors still decreased ecosystem functioning via other pathways. The extreme heatwave reduced biodiversity, which, due to the strong BEF relationships, ultimately diminished both ecosystem functions. Conversely, the loss of cross-system nutrient subsidies directly decreased biomass. These results demonstrate multiple ways by which human-caused stressors can reduce ecosystem functioning, despite robust BEF relationships, in natural high-diversity assemblages.

Meeting fisheries, ecosystem function, and biodiversity goals in a human-dominated world

The worldwide decline of coral reefs necessitates targeting management solutions that can sustain reefs and the livelihoods of the people who depend on them. However, little is known about the context in which different reef management tools can help to achieve multiple social and ecological goals. Because of nonlinearities in the likelihood of achieving combined fisheries, ecological function, and biodiversity goals along a gradient of human pressure, relatively small changes in the context in which management is implemented could have substantial impacts on whether these goals are likely to be met. Critically, management can provide substantial conservation benefits to most reefs for fisheries and ecological function, but not biodiversity goals, given their degraded state and the levels of human pressure they face.

Assessing species diversity of Coral Triangle artisanal fisheries: A DNA barcode reference library for the shore fishes retailed at Ambon harbor (Indonesia)

The Coral Triangle (CT), a region spanning across Indonesia and Philippines, is home to about 4,350 marine fish species and is among the world's most emblematic regions in terms of conservation. Threatened by overfishing and oceans warming, the CT fisheries have faced drastic declines over the last decades. Usually monitored through a biomass-based approach, fisheries trends have rarely been characterized at the species level due to the high number of taxa involved and the difficulty to accurately and routinely identify individuals to the species level. Biomass, however, is a poor proxy of species richness, and automated methods of species identification are required to move beyond biomass-based approaches. Recent meta-analyses have demonstrated that species richness peaks at intermediary levels of biomass. Consequently, preserving biomass is not equal to preserving biodiversity. We present the results of a survey to estimate the shore fish diversity retailed at the harbor of Ambon Island, an island located at the center of the CT that display exceptionally high biomass despite high levels of threat, while building a DNA barcode reference library of CT shore fishes targeted by artisanal fisheries. We sampled 1,187 specimens and successfully barcoded 696 of the 760 selected specimens that represent 202 species. Our results show that DNA barcodes were effective in capturing species boundaries for 96% of the species examined, which opens new perspectives for the routine monitoring of the CT fisheries.

Megacity development and the demise of coastal coral communities: Evidence from coral skeleton δ15 N records in the Pearl River estuary

Historical coral skeleton (CS) δ¹⁸ O and δ¹⁵ N records were produced from samples recovered from sedimentary deposits, held in natural history museum collections, and cored into modern coral heads. These records were used to assess the influence of global warming and regional eutrophication, respectively, on the decline of coastal coral communities following the development of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) megacity, China. We find that, until 2007, ocean warming was not a major threat to coral communities in the Pearl River estuary; instead, nitrogen (N) inputs dominated impacts. The high but stable CS-δ¹⁵ N values (9‰-12‰ vs. air) observed from the mid-Holocene until 1980 indicate that soil and stream denitrification reduced and modulated the hydrologic inputs of N, blunting the rise in coastal N sources during the early phase of the Pearl River estuary urbanization. However, an unprecedented CS-δ¹⁵ N peak was observed from 1987 to 1993 (>13‰ vs. air), concomitant to an increase of NH₄⁺ concentration, consistent with the rapid Pearl River estuary urbanization as the main cause for this eutrophication event. We suggest that widespread discharge of domestic sewage entered directly into the estuary, preventing removal by natural denitrification hotspots. We argue that this event caused the dramatic decline of the Pearl River estuary coral communities reported from 1980 to 2000. Subsequently, the coral record shows that the implementation of improved wastewater management policies succeeded in bringing down both CS-δ¹⁵ N and NH₄⁺ concentrations in the early 2000s. This study points to the potential importance of eutrophication over ocean warming in coral decline along urbanized coastlines and in particular in the vicinity of megacities.

Human exploitation shapes productivity-biomass relationships on coral reefs

Coral reef fisheries support the livelihoods of millions of people in tropical countries, despite large-scale depletion of fish biomass. While human adaptability can help to explain the resistance of fisheries to biomass depletion, compensatory ecological mechanisms may also be involved. If this is the case, high productivity should coexist with low biomass under relatively high exploitation. Here we integrate large spatial scale empirical data analysis and a theory-driven modelling approach to unveil the effects of human exploitation on reef fish productivity-biomass relationships. We show that differences in how productivity and biomass respond to overexploitation can decouple their relationship. As size-selective exploitation depletes fish biomass, it triggers increased production per unit biomass, averting immediate productivity collapse in both the modelling and the empirical systems. This 'buffering productivity' exposes the danger of assuming resource production-biomass equivalence, but may help to explain why some biomass-depleted fish assemblages still provide ecosystem goods under continued global fishing exploitation.

Predicting poaching risk in marine protected areas for improved patrol efficiency

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are effective resource management and conservation measures, but their success is often hindered by non-compliant activities such as poaching. Understanding the risk factors and spatial patterns of poaching is therefore crucial for efficient law enforcement. Here, we conducted explanatory and predictive modelling of poaching from recreational fishers within no-take zones of Australia's Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) using Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). Combining patrol effort data, observed distribution of reported incidents, and spatially-explicit environmental and human risk factors, we modeled the occurrence probability of poaching incidents and mapped poaching risk at fine-scale. Our results: (i) show that fishing attractiveness, accessibility and fishing capacity play a major role in shaping the spatial patterns of poaching; (ii) revealed key interactions among these factors as well as tipping points beyond which poaching risk increased or decreased markedly; and (iii) highlight gaps in patrol effort that could be filled for improved resource allocation. The approach developed through this study provide a novel way to quantify the relative influence of multiple interacting factors in shaping poaching risk, and hold promises for replication across a broad range of marine or terrestrial settings.

Remote reefs and seamounts are the last refuges for marine predators across the Indo-Pacific

Since the 1950s, industrial fisheries have expanded globally, as fishing vessels are required to travel further afield for fishing opportunities. Technological advancements and fishery subsidies have granted ever-increasing access to populations of sharks, tunas, billfishes, and other predators. Wilderness refuges, defined here as areas beyond the detectable range of human influence, are therefore increasingly rare. In order to achieve marine resources sustainability, large no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) with pelagic components are being implemented. However, such conservation efforts require knowledge of the critical habitats for predators, both across shallow reefs and the deeper ocean. Here, we fill this gap in knowledge across the Indo-Pacific by using 1,041 midwater baited videos to survey sharks and other pelagic predators such as rainbow runner (Elagatis bipinnulata), mahi-mahi (Coryphaena hippurus), and black marlin (Istiompax indica). We modeled three key predator community attributes: vertebrate species richness, mean maximum body size, and shark abundance as a function of geomorphology, environmental conditions, and human pressures. All attributes were primarily driven by geomorphology (35%-62% variance explained) and environmental conditions (14%-49%). While human pressures had no influence on species richness, both body size and shark abundance responded strongly to distance to human markets (12%-20%). Refuges were identified at more than 1,250 km from human markets for body size and for shark abundance. These refuges were identified as remote and shallow seabed features, such as seamounts, submerged banks, and reefs. Worryingly, hotpots of large individuals and of shark abundance are presently under-represented within no-take MPAs that aim to effectively protect marine predators, such as the British Indian Ocean Territory. Population recovery of predators is unlikely to occur without strategic placement and effective enforcement of large no-take MPAs in both coastal and remote locations.

Spatial resilience of the Great Barrier Reef under cumulative disturbance impacts

In the face of increasing cumulative effects from human and natural disturbances, sustaining coral reefs will require a deeper understanding of the drivers of coral resilience in space and time. Here we develop a high-resolution, spatially explicit model of coral dynamics on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Our model accounts for biological, ecological and environmental processes, as well as spatial variation in water quality and the cumulative effects of coral diseases, bleaching, outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and tropical cyclones. Our projections reconstruct coral cover trajectories between 1996 and 2017 over a total reef area of 14,780 km² , predicting a mean annual coral loss of -0.67%/year mostly due to the impact of cyclones, followed by starfish outbreaks and coral bleaching. Coral growth rate was the highest for outer shelf coral communities characterized by digitate and tabulate Acropora spp. and exposed to low seasonal variations in salinity and sea surface temperature, and the lowest for inner-shelf communities exposed to reduced water quality. We show that coral resilience (defined as the net effect of resistance and recovery following disturbance) was negatively related to the frequency of river plume conditions, and to reef accessibility to a lesser extent. Surprisingly, reef resilience was substantially lower within no-take marine protected areas, however this difference was mostly driven by the effect of water quality. Our model provides a new validated, spatially explicit platform for identifying the reefs that face the greatest risk of biodiversity loss, and those that have the highest chances to persist under increasing disturbance regimes.

Social-ecological alignment and ecological conditions in coral reefs

Complex social-ecological interactions underpin many environmental problems. To help capture this complexity, we advance an interdisciplinary network modeling framework to identify important relationships between people and nature that can influence environmental conditions. Drawing on comprehensive social and ecological data from five coral reef fishing communities in Kenya; including interviews with 648 fishers, underwater visual census data of reef ecosystem condition, and time-series landings data; we show that positive ecological conditions are associated with ‘social-ecological network closure’ – i.e., fully linked and thus closed network structures between social actors and ecological resources. Our results suggest that when fishers facing common dilemmas form cooperative communication ties with direct resource competitors, they may achieve positive gains in reef fish biomass and functional richness. Our work provides key empirical insight to a growing body of research on social-ecological alignment, and helps to advance an integrative framework that can be applied empirically in different social-ecological contexts.

The relationships between people can have important consequences for the systems they depend on. Here the authors show that when coral reef fishers face commons dilemmas, the formation of cooperative communication with competitors can lead to positive gains in reef fish biomass and functional richness.

Cross-Shelf Variation in Coral Community Response to Disturbance on the Great Barrier Reef

Changes in coral reef health and status are commonly reported using hard coral cover, however such changes may also lead to substantial shifts in coral community composition. Here we assess the extent to which coral communities departed from their pre-disturbance composition following disturbance (disassembly), and reassembled during recovery (reassembly) along an environmental gradient across the continental shelf on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. We show that for similar differences in coral cover, both disassembly and reassembly were greater on inshore reefs than mid- or outer-shelf reefs. This pattern was mostly explained by spatial variation in the pre-disturbance community composition, of which 28% was associated with chronic stressors related to water quality (e.g., light attenuation, concentrations of suspended sediments and chlorophyll). Tropical cyclones exacerbated the magnitude of community disassembly, but did not vary significantly among shelf positions. On the outer shelf, the main indicator taxa (tabulate Acropora) were mostly responsible for community dissimilarity, whereas contribution to dissimilarity was distributed across many taxa on the inner shelf. Our results highlight that community dynamics are not well captured by aggregated indices such as coral cover alone, and that the response of ecological communities to disturbance depends on their composition and exposure to chronic stressors.

Isolation and no-entry marine reserves mitigate anthropogenic impacts on grey reef shark behavior

Reef sharks are vulnerable predators experiencing severe population declines mainly due to overexploitation. However, beyond direct exploitation, human activities can produce indirect or sub-lethal effects such as behavioral alterations. Such alterations are well known for terrestrial fauna but poorly documented for marine species. Using an extensive sampling of 367 stereo baited underwater videos systems, we show modifications in grey reef shark (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) occurrence and feeding behavior along a marked gradient of isolation from humans across the New Caledonian archipelago (South-Western Pacific). The probability of occurrence decreased by 68.9% between wilderness areas (more than 25 hours travel time from the capital city) and impacted areas while the few individuals occurring in impacted areas exhibited cautious behavior. We also show that only large no-entry reserves (above 150 km²) can protect the behavior of grey reef sharks found in the wilderness. Influencing the fitness, human linked behavioral alterations should be taken into account for management strategies to ensure the persistence of populations.

Gravity of human impacts mediates coral reef conservation gains

Coral reefs provide ecosystem goods and services for millions of people in the tropics, but reef conditions are declining worldwide. Effective solutions to the crisis facing coral reefs depend in part on understanding the context under which different types of conservation benefits can be maximized. Our global analysis of nearly 1,800 tropical reefs reveals how the intensity of human impacts in the surrounding seascape, measured as a function of human population size and accessibility to reefs ("gravity"), diminishes the effectiveness of marine reserves at sustaining reef fish biomass and the presence of top predators, even where compliance with reserve rules is high. Critically, fish biomass in high-compliance marine reserves located where human impacts were intensive tended to be less than a quarter that of reserves where human impacts were low. Similarly, the probability of encountering top predators on reefs with high human impacts was close to zero, even in high-compliance marine reserves. However, we find that the relative difference between openly fished sites and reserves (what we refer to as conservation gains) are highest for fish biomass (excluding predators) where human impacts are moderate and for top predators where human impacts are low. Our results illustrate critical ecological trade-offs in meeting key conservation objectives: reserves placed where there are moderate-to-high human impacts can provide substantial conservation gains for fish biomass, yet they are unlikely to support key ecosystem functions like higher-order predation, which is more prevalent in reserve locations with low human impacts.

Human and environmental gradients predict catch, effort, and species composition in a large Micronesian coral-reef fishery

The consistent supply of fresh fish to commercial markets may mask growing fishing footprints and localized depletions, as fishing expands to deeper/further reefs, smaller fish, and more resilient species. To test this hypothesis, species-based records and fisher interviews were gathered over one year within a large, demand-driven coral-reef fishery in Chuuk, Micronesia. We first assessed catch statistics with respect to high windspeeds and moon phases that are known to constrain both catch and effort. While lower daily catch success was predicted by higher windspeeds and greater lunar illumination, total daily landings fluctuated less than fishing success across environmental gradients. Instead, daily landings were mainly driven by the number of flights from Chuuk to Guam (i.e., international demand). Given that demand masked local drivers of overall catch volume, we further evaluated species-based indicators of fisheries exploitation. Most target species (75%) had either a positively skewed size distribution or proportional contributions that were dependent upon favorable conditions (i.e. season and moon phases). Skewed size distributions indicated truncated growth associated with fishing mortality, and in turn, suggested that size-based management policies may be most effective for these species. In contrast, environmentally-constrained catch success indicated species that may be more susceptible to growing fishing footprints and may respond better to gear/quota/area policies compared to size policies. Species-based responses offered a simplified means to combine species into fisheries management units. Finally, a comparison of commercial and subsistence landings showed higher vulnerability to fishing among species preferentially targeted by commercial fisheries, offering new insights into how commercial harvesting can disproportionately impact resources, despite having lower annual catch volumes.

Environmental DNA illuminates the dark diversity of sharks

In the era of "Anthropocene defaunation," large species are often no longer detected in habitats where they formerly occurred. However, it is unclear whether this apparent missing, or "dark," diversity of megafauna results from local species extirpations or from failure to detect elusive remaining individuals. We find that despite two orders of magnitude less sampling effort, environmental DNA (eDNA) detects 44% more shark species than traditional underwater visual censuses and baited videos across the New Caledonian archipelago (south-western Pacific). Furthermore, eDNA analysis reveals the presence of previously unobserved shark species in human-impacted areas. Overall, our results highlight a greater prevalence of sharks than described by traditional survey methods in both impacted and wilderness areas. This indicates an urgent need for large-scale eDNA assessments to improve monitoring of threatened and elusive megafauna. Finally, our findings emphasize the need for conservation efforts specifically geared toward the protection of elusive, residual populations.

Fishing-gear restrictions and biomass gains for coral reef fishes in marine protected areas

Considerable empirical evidence supports recovery of reef fish populations with fishery closures. In countries where full exclusion of people from fishing may be perceived as inequitable, fishing-gear restrictions on nonselective and destructive gears may offer socially relevant management alternatives to build recovery of fish biomass. Even so, few researchers have statistically compared the responses of tropical reef fisheries to alternative management strategies. We tested for the effects of fishery closures and fishing gear restrictions on tropical reef fish biomass at the community and family level. We conducted 1,396 underwater surveys at 617 unique sites across a spatial hierarchy within 22 global marine ecoregions that represented 5 realms. We compared total biomass across local fish assemblages and among 20 families of reef fishes inside marine protected areas (MPAs) with different fishing restrictions: no-take, hook-and-line fishing only, several fishing gears allowed, and sites open to all fishing gears. We included a further category representing remote sites, where fishing pressure is low. As expected, full fishery closures, (i.e., no-take zones) most benefited community- and family-level fish biomass in comparison with restrictions on fishing gears and openly fished sites. Although biomass responses to fishery closures were highly variable across families, some fishery targets (e.g., Carcharhinidae and Lutjanidae) responded positively to multiple restrictions on fishing gears (i.e., where gears other than hook and line were not permitted). Remoteness also positively affected the response of community-level fish biomass and many fish families. Our findings provide strong support for the role of fishing restrictions in building recovery of fish biomass and indicate important interactions among fishing-gear types that affect biomass of a diverse set of reef fish families.

Unexpected high vulnerability of functions in wilderness areas: evidence from coral reef fishes

High species richness is thought to support the delivery of multiple ecosystem functions and services under changing environments. Yet, some species might perform unique functional roles while others are redundant. Thus, the benefits of high species richness in maintaining ecosystem functioning are uncertain if functions have little redundancy, potentially leading to high vulnerability of functions. We studied the natural propensity of assemblages to be functionally buffered against loss prior to fishing activities, using functional trait combinations, in coral reef fish assemblages across unfished wilderness areas of the Indo-Pacific: Chagos Archipelago, New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Fish functional diversity in these wilderness areas is highly vulnerable to fishing, explained by species- and abundance-based redundancy packed into a small combination of traits, leaving most other trait combinations (60%) sensitive to fishing, with no redundancy. Functional vulnerability peaks for mobile and sedentary top predators, and large species in general. Functional vulnerability decreases for certain functional entities in New Caledonia, where overall functional redundancy was higher. Uncovering these baseline patterns of functional vulnerability can offer early warning signals of the damaging effects from fishing, and may serve as baselines to guide precautionary and even proactive conservation actions.

Natural bounds on herbivorous coral reef fishes

Humans are an increasingly dominant driver of Earth's biological communities, but differentiating human impacts from natural drivers of ecosystem state is crucial. Herbivorous fish play a key role in maintaining coral dominance on coral reefs, and are widely affected by human activities, principally fishing. We assess the relative importance of human and biophysical (habitat and oceanographic) drivers on the biomass of five herbivorous functional groups among 33 islands in the central and western Pacific Ocean. Human impacts were clear for some, but not all, herbivore groups. Biomass of browsers, large excavators, and of all herbivores combined declined rapidly with increasing human population density, whereas grazers, scrapers, and detritivores displayed no relationship. Sea-surface temperature had significant but opposing effects on the biomass of detritivores (positive) and browsers (negative). Similarly, the biomass of scrapers, grazers, and detritivores correlated with habitat structural complexity; however, relationships were group specific. Finally, the biomass of browsers and large excavators was related to island geomorphology, both peaking on low-lying islands and atolls. The substantial variability in herbivore populations explained by natural biophysical drivers highlights the need for locally appropriate management targets on coral reefs.

Environmental DNA reveals tropical shark diversity in contrasting levels of anthropogenic impact

Sharks are charismatic predators that play a key role in most marine food webs. Their demonstrated vulnerability to exploitation has recently turned them into flagship species in ocean conservation. Yet, the assessment and monitoring of the distribution and abundance of such mobile species in marine environments remain challenging, often invasive and resource-intensive. Here we pilot a novel, rapid and non-invasive environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding approach specifically targeted to infer shark presence, diversity and eDNA read abundance in tropical habitats. We identified at least 21 shark species, from both Caribbean and Pacific Coral Sea water samples, whose geographical patterns of diversity and read abundance coincide with geographical differences in levels of anthropogenic pressure and conservation effort. We demonstrate that eDNA metabarcoding can be effectively employed to study shark diversity. Further developments in this field have the potential to drastically enhance our ability to assess and monitor elusive oceanic predators, and lead to improved conservation strategies.

Current limitations of global conservation to protect higher vulnerability and lower resilience fish species

Estuaries are threatened by intense and continuously increasing human activities. Here we estimated the sensitivity of fish assemblages in a set of estuaries distributed worldwide (based on species vulnerability and resilience), and the exposure to cumulative stressors and coverage by protected areas in and around those estuaries (from marine, estuarine and freshwater ecosystems, due to their connectivity). Vulnerability and resilience of estuarine fish assemblages were not evenly distributed globally and were driven by environmental features. Exposure to pressures and extent of protection were also not evenly distributed worldwide. Assemblages with more vulnerable and less resilient species were associated with estuaries in higher latitudes (in particular Europe), and with higher connectivity with the marine ecosystem, moreover such estuaries were generally under high intensity of pressures but with no concomitant increase in protection. Current conservation schemes pay little attention to species traits, despite their role in maintaining ecosystem functioning and stability. Results emphasize that conservation is weakly related with the global distribution of sensitive fish species in sampled estuaries, and this shortcoming is aggravated by their association with highly pressured locations, which appeals for changes in the global conservation strategy (namely towards estuaries in temperate regions and highly connected with marine ecosystems).

Rainforest metropolis casts 1,000-km defaunation shadow

Tropical rainforest regions are urbanizing rapidly, yet the role of emerging metropolises in driving wildlife overharvesting in forests and inland waters is unknown. We present evidence of a large defaunation shadow around a rainforest metropolis. Using interviews with 392 rural fishers, we show that fishing has severely depleted a large-bodied keystone fish species, tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum), with an impact extending over 1,000 km from the rainforest city of Manaus (population 2.1 million). There was strong evidence of defaunation within this area, including a 50% reduction in body size and catch rate (catch per unit effort). Our findings link these declines to city-based boats that provide rural fishers with reliable access to fish buyers and ice and likely impact rural fisher livelihoods and flooded forest biodiversity. This empirical evidence that urban markets can defaunate deep into rainforest wilderness has implications for other urbanizing socioecological systems.

Seabirds supply nitrogen to reef-building corals on remote Pacific islets

Seabirds concentrate nutrients from large marine areas on their nesting islands playing an important ecological role in nutrient transfer between marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here we investigate the role of guano on corals reefs across scales by analyzing the stable nitrogen isotopic (δ¹⁵N) values of the scleractinian coral Pocillopora damicornis on fringing reefs around two Pacific remote islets with large seabird colonies. Marine stations closest to the seabird colonies had higher nitrate + nitrite concentrations compared to more distant stations. Coral and zooxanthellae δ¹⁵N values were also higher at these sites, suggesting that guano-derived nitrogen is assimilated into corals and contributes to their nitrogen requirements. The spatial extent of guano influence was however restricted to a local scale. Our results demonstrate that seabird-derived nutrients not only spread across the terrestrial ecosystem, but also affect components of the adjacent marine ecosystem. Further studies are now needed to assess if this nutrient input has a positive or negative effect for corals. Such studies on remote islets also open fresh perspectives to understand how nutrients affect coral reefs isolated from other anthropogenic stressors.

Estimating the effect of multiple environmental stressors on coral bleaching and mortality

Coral cover has been declining in recent decades due to increased temperatures and environmental stressors. However, the extent to which different stressors contribute both individually and in concert to bleaching and mortality is still very uncertain. We develop and use a novel regression approach, using non-linear parametric models that control for unobserved time invariant effects to estimate the effects on coral bleaching and mortality due to temperature, solar radiation, depth, hurricanes and anthropogenic stressors using historical data from a large bleaching event in 2005 across the Caribbean. Two separate models are created, one to predict coral bleaching, and the other to predict near-term mortality. A large ensemble of supporting data is assembled to control for omitted variable bias and improve fit, and a significant improvement in fit is observed from univariate linear regression based on temperature alone. The results suggest that climate stressors (temperature and radiation) far outweighed direct anthropogenic stressors (using distance from shore and nearby human population density as a proxy for such stressors) in driving coral health outcomes during the 2005 event. Indeed, temperature was found to play a role ~4 times greater in both the bleaching and mortality response than population density across their observed ranges. The empirical models tested in this study have large advantages over ordinary-least squares-they offer unbiased estimates for censored data, correct for spatial correlation, and are capable of handling more complex relationships between dependent and independent variables. The models offer a framework for preparing for future warming events and climate change; guiding monitoring and attribution of other bleaching and mortality events regionally and around the globe; and informing adaptive management and conservation efforts.

Fishing degrades size structure of coral reef fish communities

Fishing pressure on coral reef ecosystems has been frequently linked to reductions of large fishes and reef fish biomass. Associated impacts on overall community structure are, however, less clear. In size-structured aquatic ecosystems, fishing impacts are commonly quantified using size spectra, which describe the distribution of individual body sizes within a community. We examined the size spectra and biomass of coral reef fish communities at 38 US-affiliated Pacific islands that ranged in human presence from near pristine to human population centers. Size spectra 'steepened' steadily with increasing human population and proximity to market due to a reduction in the relative biomass of large fishes and an increase in the dominance of small fishes. Reef fish biomass was substantially lower on inhabited islands than uninhabited ones, even at inhabited islands with the lowest levels of human presence. We found that on populated islands size spectra exponents decreased (analogous to size spectra steepening) linearly with declining biomass, whereas on uninhabited islands there was no relationship. Size spectra were steeper in regions of low sea surface temperature but were insensitive to variation in other environmental and geomorphic covariates. In contrast, reef fish biomass was highly sensitive to oceanographic conditions, being influenced by both oceanic productivity and sea surface temperature. Our results suggest that community size structure may be a more robust indicator than fish biomass to increasing human presence and that size spectra are reliable indicators of exploitation impacts across regions of different fish community compositions, environmental drivers, and fisheries types. Size-based approaches that link directly to functional properties of fish communities, and are relatively insensitive to abiotic variation across biogeographic regions, offer great potential for developing our understanding of fishing impacts in coral reef ecosystems.

Community-based management induces rapid recovery of a high-value tropical freshwater fishery

Tropical wetlands are highly threatened socio-ecological systems, where local communities rely heavily on aquatic animal protein, such as fish, to meet food security. Here, we quantify how a 'win-win' community-based resource management program induced stock recovery of the world's largest scaled freshwater fish (Arapaima gigas), providing both food and income. We analyzed stock assessment data over eight years and examined the effects of protected areas, community-based management, and landscape and limnological variables across 83 oxbow lakes monitored along a ~500-km section of the Juruá River of Western Brazilian Amazonia. Patterns of community management explained 71.8% of the variation in arapaima population sizes. Annual population counts showed that protected lakes on average contained 304.8 (±332.5) arapaimas, compared to only 9.2 (±9.8) in open-access lakes. Protected lakes have become analogous to a high-interest savings account, ensuring an average annual revenue of US$10,601 per community and US$1046.6 per household, greatly improving socioeconomic welfare. Arapaima management is a superb window of opportunity in harmonizing the co-delivery of sustainable resource management and poverty alleviation. We show that arapaima management deserves greater attention from policy makers across Amazonian countries, and highlight the need to include local stakeholders in conservation planning of Amazonian floodplains.

Marine reserves lag behind wilderness in the conservation of key functional roles

Although marine reserves represent one of the most effective management responses to human impacts, their capacity to sustain the same diversity of species, functional roles and biomass of reef fishes as wilderness areas remains questionable, in particular in regions with deep and long-lasting human footprints. Here we show that fish functional diversity and biomass of top predators are significantly higher on coral reefs located at more than 20 h travel time from the main market compared with even the oldest (38 years old), largest (17,500 ha) and most restrictive (no entry) marine reserve in New Caledonia (South-Western Pacific). We further demonstrate that wilderness areas support unique ecological values with no equivalency as one gets closer to humans, even in large and well-managed marine reserves. Wilderness areas may therefore serve as benchmarks for management effectiveness and act as the last refuges for the most vulnerable functional roles.

Modeling Reef Fish Biomass, Recovery Potential, and Management Priorities in the Western Indian Ocean

Fish biomass is a primary driver of coral reef ecosystem services and has high sensitivity to human disturbances, particularly fishing. Estimates of fish biomass, their spatial distribution, and recovery potential are important for evaluating reef status and crucial for setting management targets. Here we modeled fish biomass estimates across all reefs of the western Indian Ocean using key variables that predicted the empirical data collected from 337 sites. These variables were used to create biomass and recovery time maps to prioritize spatially explicit conservation actions. The resultant fish biomass map showed high variability ranging from ~15 to 2900 kg/ha, primarily driven by human populations, distance to markets, and fisheries management restrictions. Lastly, we assembled data based on the age of fisheries closures and showed that biomass takes ~ 25 years to recover to typical equilibrium values of ~1200 kg/ha. The recovery times to biomass levels for sustainable fishing yields, maximum diversity, and ecosystem stability or conservation targets once fishing is suspended was modeled to estimate temporal costs of restrictions. The mean time to recovery for the whole region to the conservation target was 8.1(± 3SD) years, while recovery to sustainable fishing thresholds was between 0.5 and 4 years, but with high spatial variation. Recovery prioritization scenario models included one where local governance prioritized recovery of degraded reefs and two that prioritized minimizing recovery time, where countries either operated independently or collaborated. The regional collaboration scenario selected remote areas for conservation with uneven national responsibilities and spatial coverage, which could undermine collaboration. There is the potential to achieve sustainable fisheries within a decade by promoting these pathways according to their social-ecological suitability.