Plant hydraulics improves and topography mediates prediction of aspen mortality in southwestern USA

Combining PSII photochemistry and hydraulics improves predictions of photosynthesis and water use from mild to lethal drought

Rising temperatures and increases in drought negatively impact the efficiency and sustainability of both agricultural and forest ecosystems. Although hydraulic limitations on photosynthesis have been extensively studied, a solid understanding of the links between whole plant hydraulics and photosynthetic processes at the cellular level under changing environmental conditions is still missing, hampering our predictive power for plant mortality. Here, we examined plant hydraulic traits and CO2 assimilation rate under progressive water limitation by implementing Photosystem II (PSII) dynamics with a whole plant process model (TREES). The photosynthetic responses to plant water status were parameterized based on measurements of chlorophyll a fluorescence, gas exchange and water potential for Brassica rapa (R500) grown in a greenhouse under fully watered to lethal drought conditions. The updated model significantly improved predictions of photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and leaf water potential. TREES with PSII knowledge predicted a larger hydraulic safety margin and a decrease in percent loss of conductivity. TREES predicted a slower decrease in leaf water potential, which agreed with measurements. Our results highlight the pressing need for incorporating PSII drought photochemistry into current process models to capture cross-scale plant water dynamics from cell to whole plant level.

Decoupling of functional traits from intraspecific patterns of growth and drought stress resistance

Intraspecific variation in functional traits may mediate tree species' drought resistance, yet whether trait variation is due to genotype (G), environment (E), or G×E interactions remains unknown. Understanding the drivers of intraspecific trait variation and whether variation mediates drought response can improve predictions of species' response to future drought. Using populations of quaking aspen spanning a climate gradient, we investigated intraspecific variation in functional traits in the field as well as the influence of G and E among propagules in a common garden. We also tested for trait-mediated trade-offs in growth and drought stress tolerance. We observed intraspecific trait variation among the populations, yet this variation did not necessarily translate to higher drought stress tolerance in hotter/drier populations. Additionally, plasticity in the common garden was low, especially in propagules derived from the hottest/driest population. We found no growth-drought stress tolerance trade-offs and few traits exhibited significant relationships with mortality in the natural populations, suggesting that intraspecific trait variation among the traits measured did not strongly mediate responses to drought stress. Our results highlight the limits of trait-mediated responses to drought stress and the complex G×E interactions that may underlie drought stress tolerance variation in forests in dry environments.

Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects

Wildfires are a global crisis, but current fire models fail to capture vegetation response to changing climate. With drought and elevated temperature increasing the importance of vegetation dynamics to fire behavior, and the advent of next generation models capable of capturing increasingly complex physical processes, we provide a renewed focus on representation of woody vegetation in fire models. Currently, the most advanced representations of fire behavior and biophysical fire effects are found in distinct classes of fine-scale models and do not capture variation in live fuel (i.e. living plant) properties. We demonstrate that plant water and carbon dynamics, which influence combustion and heat transfer into the plant and often dictate plant survival, provide the mechanistic linkage between fire behavior and effects. Our conceptual framework linking remotely sensed estimates of plant water and carbon to fine-scale models of fire behavior and effects could be a critical first step toward improving the fidelity of the coarse scale models that are now relied upon for global fire forecasting. This process-based approach will be essential to capturing the influence of physiological responses to drought and warming on live fuel conditions, strengthening the science needed to guide fire managers in an uncertain future.

Linking resource- and disturbance-based models to explain tree-grass coexistence in savannas

Savannas cover a significant fraction of the Earth's land surface. In these ecosystems, C₃ trees and C₄ grasses coexist persistently, but the mechanisms explaining coexistence remain subject to debate. Different quantitative models have been proposed to explain coexistence, but these models make widely contrasting assumptions about which mechanisms are responsible for savanna persistence. Here, we show that no single existing model fully captures all key elements required to explain tree-grass coexistence across savanna rainfall gradients, but many models make important contributions. We show that recent empirical work allows us to combine many existing elements with new ideas to arrive at a synthesis that combines elements of two dominant frameworks: Walter's two-layer model and demographic bottlenecks. We propose that functional rooting separation is necessary for coexistence and is the crux of the coexistence problem. It is both well-supported empirically and necessary for tree persistence, given the comprehensive grass superiority for soil moisture acquisition. We argue that eventual tree dominance through shading is precluded by ecohydrological constraints in dry savannas and by fire and herbivores in wet savannas. Strong asymmetric grass-tree competition for soil moisture limits tree growth, exposing trees to persistent demographic bottlenecks.

Linking remotely sensed ecosystem resilience with forest mortality across the continental United States

Episodes of forest mortality have been observed worldwide associated with climate change, impacting species composition and ecosystem services such as water resources and carbon sequestration. Yet our ability to predict forest mortality remains limited, especially across large scales. Time series of satellite imagery has been used to document ecosystem resilience globally, but it is not clear how well remotely sensed resilience can inform the prediction of forest mortality across continental, multi-biome scales. Here, we leverage forest inventories across the continental United States to systematically assess the potential of ecosystem resilience derived using different data sets and methods to predict forest mortality. We found high resilience was associated with low mortality in eastern forests but was associated with high mortality in western regions. The unexpected resilience-mortality relation in western United States may be due to several factors including plant trait acclimation, insect population dynamics, or resource competition. Overall, our results not only supported the opportunity to use remotely sensed ecosystem resilience to predict forest mortality but also highlighted that ecological factors may have crucial influences because they can reverse the sign of the resilience-mortality relationships.

Leaf trait modification in European beech trees in response to climatic and edaphic drought

Leaf morphological and physiological traits control the carbon and water relations of mature trees and are determinants of drought tolerance, but it is not well understood how they are modified in response to water deficits. We analysed five sun-canopy leaf traits (mean leaf size (LS), specific leaf area (SLA), Huber value (HV), water potential at turgor loss point (Ψ_tlp ) and foliar carbon isotope signature (δ¹³ C)) in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) across three precipitation gradients sampled in moist (2010), dry (2019) and very dry (2018) summers, and tested their response to short-term water deficits (climatic water balance (CWB) preceding sample collection) and long-term water availability (mean annual precipitation (MAP), plant-available soil water capacity (AWC) and neighbourhood competition). Across the 34 sites, LS varied seven-fold (3.9-27.0 cm² ), SLA four-fold (77.1-306.9 cm²·g^-1 ) and HV six-fold (1.0-6.65 cm² ·m^-2 ). In the 2018 dataset, LS showed a negative and HV a positive relationship to MAP, which contradicts relations found in multi-species samples. Average Ψ_tlp ranged from -1.90 to -2.62 MPa and decreased across the sites with decreasing CWB in the month prior to measurement, as well as with decreasing MAP and AWC in 2019. Studied leaf traits varied considerably between years, suggesting that mast fruiting and the severe 2018 drought caused the formation of smaller leaves. We conclude that sun-canopy leaf traits of European beech exhibit considerable plasticity in response to climatic and edaphic aridity, and that osmotic adjustment may be an important element in the drought response strategy of this anisohydric tree species.

Remote sensing of cytotype and its consequences for canopy damage in quaking aspen

Mapping geographic mosaics of genetic variation and their consequences via genotype x environment interactions at large extents and high resolution has been limited by the scalability of DNA sequencing. Here, we address this challenge for cytotype (chromosome copy number) variation in quaking aspen, a drought-impacted foundation tree species. We integrate airborne imaging spectroscopy data with ground-based DNA sequencing data and canopy damage data in 391 km² of southwestern Colorado. We show that (1) aspen cover and cytotype can be remotely sensed at 1 m spatial resolution, (2) the geographic mosaic of cytotypes is heterogeneous and interdigitated, (3) triploids have higher leaf nitrogen, canopy water content, and carbon isotope shifts (δ¹³ C) than diploids, and (4) canopy damage varies among cytotypes and depends on interactions with topography, canopy height, and trait variables. Triploids are at higher risk in hotter and drier conditions.

Soil water availability and branch age explain variability in xylem safety of European beech in Central Europe

Xylem embolism resistance has been identified as a key trait with a causal relation to drought-induced tree mortality, but not much is known about its intra-specific trait variability (ITV) in dependence on environmental variation. We measured xylem safety and efficiency in 300 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees across 30 sites in Central Europe, covering a precipitation reduction from 886 to 522 mm year⁻¹. A broad range of variables that might affect embolism resistance in mature trees, including climatic and soil water availability, competition, and branch age, were examined. The average P₅₀ value varied by up to 1 MPa between sites. Neither climatic aridity nor structural variables had a significant influence on P₅₀. However, P₅₀ was less negative for trees with a higher soil water storage capacity, and positively related to branch age, while specific conductivity (K_s) was not significantly associated with either of these variables. The greatest part of the ITV for xylem safety and efficiency was attributed to random variability within populations. We conclude that the influence of site water availability on P₅₀ and K_s is low in European beech, and that the high degree of within-population variability for P₅₀, partly due to variation in branch age, hampers the identification of a clear environmental signal.

Cytotype and genotype predict mortality and recruitment in Colorado quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides)

Species responses to climate change depend on environment, genetics, and interactions among these factors. Intraspecific cytotype (ploidy level) variation is a common type of genetic variation in many species. However, the importance of intraspecific cytotype variation in determining demography across environments is poorly known. We studied quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides), which occurs in diploid and triploid cytotypes. This widespread tree species is experiencing contractions in its western range, which could potentially be linked to cytotype-dependent drought tolerance. We found that interactions between cytotype and environment drive mortality and recruitment across 503 plots in Colorado. Triploids were more vulnerable to mortality relative to diploids and had reduced recruitment on more drought-prone and disturbed plots relative to diploids. Furthermore, there was substantial genotype-dependent variation in demography. Thus, cytotype and genotype variation are associated with decline in this foundation species. Future assessment of demographic responses to climate change will benefit from knowledge of how genetic and environmental mosaics interact to determine species' ecophysiology and demography.

Understanding and predicting forest mortality in the western United States using long-term forest inventory data and modeled hydraulic damage

Global warming is expected to exacerbate the duration and intensity of droughts in the western United States, which may lead to increased tree mortality. A prevailing proximal mechanism of drought-induced tree mortality is hydraulic damage, but predicting tree mortality from hydraulic theory and climate data still remains a major scientific challenge. We used forest inventory data and a plant hydraulic model (HM) to address three questions: can we capture regional patterns of drought-induced tree mortality with HM-predicted damage thresholds; do HM metrics improve predictions of mortality across broad spatial areas; and what are the dominant controls of forest mortality when considering stand characteristics, climate metrics, and simulated hydraulic stress? We found that the amount of variance explained by models predicting mortality was limited (R² median = 0.10, R² range: 0.00-0.52). HM outputs, including hydraulic damage and carbon assimilation diagnostics, moderately improve mortality prediction across the western US compared with models using stand and climate predictors alone. Among factors considered, metrics of stand density and tree size tended to be some of the most critical factors explaining mortality, probably highlighting the important roles of structural overshoot, stand development, and biotic agent host selection and outbreaks in mortality patterns.

Widespread mortality of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) throughout interior Alaskan boreal forests resulting from a novel canker disease

Over the past several decades, growth declines and mortality of trembling aspen throughout western Canada and the United States have been linked to drought, often interacting with outbreaks of insects and fungal pathogens, resulting in a “sudden aspen decline” throughout much of aspen’s range. In 2015, we noticed an aggressive fungal canker causing widespread mortality of aspen throughout interior Alaska and initiated a study to quantify potential drivers for the incidence, virulence, and distribution of the disease. Stand-level infection rates among 88 study sites distributed across 6 Alaska ecoregions ranged from <1 to 69%, with the proportion of trees with canker that were dead averaging 70% across all sites. The disease is most prevalent north of the Alaska Range within the Tanana Kuskokwim ecoregion. Modeling canker probability as a function of ecoregion, stand structure, landscape position, and climate revealed that smaller-diameter trees in older stands with greater aspen basal area have the highest canker incidence and mortality, while younger trees in younger stands appear virtually immune to the disease. Sites with higher summer vapor pressure deficits had significantly higher levels of canker infection and mortality. We believe the combined effects of this novel fungal canker pathogen, drought, and the persistent aspen leaf miner outbreak are triggering feedbacks between carbon starvation and hydraulic failure that are ultimately driving widespread mortality. Warmer early-season temperatures and prolonged late summer drought are leading to larger and more severe wildfires throughout interior Alaska that are favoring a shift from black spruce to forests dominated by Alaska paper birch and aspen. Widespread aspen mortality fostered by this rapidly spreading pathogen has significant implications for successional dynamics, ecosystem function, and feedbacks to disturbance regimes, particularly on sites too dry for Alaska paper birch.

Why is Tree Drought Mortality so Hard to Predict?

Widespread tree mortality following droughts has emerged as an environmentally and economically devastating 'ecological surprise'. It is well established that tree physiology is important in understanding drought-driven mortality; however, the accuracy of predictions based on physiology alone has been limited. We propose that complicating factors at two levels stymie predictions of drought-driven mortality: (i) organismal-level physiological and site factors that obscure understanding of drought exposure and vulnerability and (ii) community-level ecological interactions, particularly with biotic agents whose effects on tree mortality may reverse expectations based on stress physiology. We conclude with a path forward that emphasizes the need for an integrative approach to stress physiology and biotic agent dynamics when assessing forest risk to drought-driven morality in a changing climate.

Water 'on the rocks': a summer drink for thirsty trees?

Drought-induced tree mortality frequently occurs in patches with different spatial and temporal distributions, which is only partly explained by inter- and intraspecific variation in drought tolerance. We investigated whether bedrock properties, with special reference to rock water storage capacity, affects tree water status and drought response in a rock-dominated landscape. We measured primary porosity and available water content of breccia (B) and dolostone (D) rocks. Saplings of Fraxinus ornus were grown in pots filled with soil or soil mixed with B and D rocks, and subjected to an experimental drought. Finally, we measured seasonal changes in water status of trees in field sites overlying B or D bedrock. B rocks were more porous and stored more available water than D rocks. Potted saplings grown with D rocks had less biomass and suffered more severe water stress than those with B rocks. Trees in sites with B bedrock had more favourable water status than those on D bedrock which also suffered drought-induced canopy dieback. Bedrock represents an important water source for plants under drought. Different bedrock features translate into contrasting below-ground water availability, leading to landscape-level heterogeneity of the impact of drought on tree water status and dieback.

Use of hydraulic traits for modeling genotype-specific acclimation in cotton under drought

Understanding the genetic and physiological basis of abiotic stress tolerance under field conditions is key to varietal crop improvement in the face of climate variability. Here, we investigate dynamic physiological responses to water stress in silico and their relationships to genotypic variation in hydraulic traits of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), an economically important species for renewable textile fiber production. In conjunction with an ecophysiological process-based model, heterogeneous data (plant hydraulic traits, spatially-distributed soil texture, soil water content and canopy temperature) were used to examine hydraulic characteristics of cotton, evaluate their consequences on whole plant performance under drought, and explore potential genotype × environment effects. Cotton was found to have R-shaped hydraulic vulnerability curves (VCs), which were consistent under drought stress initiated at flowering. Stem VCs, expressed as percent loss of conductivity, differed across genotypes, whereas root VCs did not. Simulation results demonstrated how plant physiological stress can depend on the interaction between soil properties and irrigation management, which in turn affect genotypic rankings of transpiration in a time-dependent manner. Our study shows how a process-based modeling framework can be used to link genotypic variation in hydraulic traits to differential acclimating behaviors under drought.

Soil moisture dominates dryness stress on ecosystem production globally

Dryness stress can limit vegetation growth and is often characterized by low soil moisture (SM) and high atmospheric water demand (vapor pressure deficit, VPD). However, the relative role of SM and VPD in limiting ecosystem production remains debated and is difficult to disentangle, as SM and VPD are coupled through land-atmosphere interactions, hindering the ability to predict ecosystem responses to dryness. Here, we combine satellite observations of solar-induced fluorescence with estimates of SM and VPD and show that SM is the dominant driver of dryness stress on ecosystem production across more than 70% of vegetated land areas with valid data. Moreover, after accounting for SM-VPD coupling, VPD effects on ecosystem production are much smaller across large areas. We also find that SM stress is strongest in semi-arid ecosystems. Our results clarify a longstanding question and open new avenues for improving models to allow a better management of drought risk.

Conifers depend on established roots during drought: results from a coupled model of carbon allocation and hydraulics

Trees may survive prolonged droughts by shifting water uptake to reliable water sources, but it is unknown if the dominant mechanism involves activating existing roots or growing new roots during drought, or some combination of the two. To gain mechanistic insights on this unknown, a dynamic root-hydraulic modeling framework was developed that set up a feedback between hydraulic controls over carbon allocation and the role of root growth on soil-plant hydraulics. The new model was tested using a 5 yr drought/heat field experiment on an established piñon-juniper stand with root access to bedrock groundwater. Owing to the high carbon cost per unit root area, modeled trees initialized without adequate bedrock groundwater access experienced potentially lethal declines in water potential, while all of the experimental trees maintained nonlethal water potentials. Simulated trees were unable to grow roots rapidly enough to mediate the hydraulic stress, particularly during warm droughts. Alternatively, modeled trees initiated with root access to bedrock groundwater matched the hydraulics of the experimental trees by increasing their water uptake from bedrock groundwater when soil layers dried out. Therefore, the modeling framework identified a critical mechanism for drought response that required trees to shift water uptake among existing roots rather than growing new roots.

Six co-occurring conifer species in northern Idaho exhibit a continuum of hydraulic strategies during an extreme drought year

As growing seasons in the northwestern USA lengthen, on track with climate predictions, the mixed conifer forests that dominate this region will experience extended seasonal drought conditions. The year of 2015, which had the most extreme drought for the area on record, offered a potential analogue of future conditions. During this period, we measured the daily courses of water potential and gas exchange as well as the hydraulic conductivity and vulnerability to embolism of six dominant native conifer species, Abies grandis, Larix occidentalis, Pinus ponderosa, Pinus monticola, Pseudotsuga menziesii and Thuja occidentalis, to determine their responses to 5 months of record-low precipitation. The deep ash-capped soils of the region allowed gas exchange to continue without significant evidence of water stress for almost 2 months after the last rainfall event. Midday water potentials never fell below -2.2 MPa in the evergreen species and -2.7 MPa in the one deciduous species. Branch xylem was resistant to embolism, with P ₅₀ values ranging from -3.3 to -7.0 MPa. Root xylem, however, was more vulnerable, with P ₅₀ values from -1.3 to -4.6 MPa. With predawn water potentials as low as -1.3 MPa, the two Pinus species likely experienced declines in root hydraulic conductivity. Stomatal conductance of all six species was significantly responsive to vapour pressure only in the dry months (August-October), with no response evident in the wet months (June-July). While there were similarities among species, they exhibited a continuum of isohydry and safety margins. Despite the severity of this drought, all species were able to continue photosynthesis until mid-October, likely due to the mediating effects of the meter-deep, ash-capped silty-loam soils with large water storage capacity. Areas with these soil types, which are characteristic of much of the northwestern USA, could serve as refugia under drier and warmer future conditions.

Different ways to die in a changing world: Consequences of climate change for tree species performance and survival through an ecophysiological perspective

Anthropogenic activities such as uncontrolled deforestation and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for triggering a series of environmental imbalances that affect the Earth's complex climate dynamics. As a consequence of these changes, several climate models forecast an intensification of extreme weather events over the upcoming decades, including heat waves and increasingly severe drought and flood episodes. The occurrence of such extreme weather will prompt profound changes in several plant communities, resulting in massive forest dieback events that can trigger a massive loss of biodiversity in several biomes worldwide. Despite the gravity of the situation, our knowledge regarding how extreme weather events can undermine the performance, survival, and distribution of forest species remains very fragmented. Therefore, the present review aimed to provide a broad and integrated perspective of the main biochemical, physiological, and morpho-anatomical disorders that may compromise the performance and survival of forest species exposed to climate change factors, particularly drought, flooding, and global warming. In addition, we also discuss the controversial effects of high CO2 concentrations in enhancing plant growth and reducing the deleterious effects of some extreme climatic events. We conclude with a discussion about the possible effects that the factors associated with the climate change might have on species distribution and forest composition.

The stomatal response to rising CO2 concentration and drought is predicted by a hydraulic trait-based optimization model

Modeling stomatal control is critical for predicting forest responses to the changing environment and hence the global water and carbon cycles. A trait-based stomatal control model that optimizes carbon gain while avoiding hydraulic risk has been shown to perform well in response to drought. However, the model's performance against changes in atmospheric CO2, which is rising rapidly due to human emissions, has yet to be evaluated. The present study tested the gain-risk model's ability to predict the stomatal response to CO2 concentration with potted water birch (Betula occidentalis Hook.) saplings in a growth chamber. The model's performance in predicting stomatal response to changes in atmospheric relative humidity and soil moisture was also assessed. The gain-risk model predicted the photosynthetic assimilation, transpiration rate and leaf xylem pressure under different CO2 concentrations, having a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 25%. The model also predicted the responses to relative humidity and soil drought with a MAPE of 21.9% and 41.9%, respectively. Overall, the gain-risk model had an MAPE of 26.8% compared with the 37.5% MAPE obtained by a standard empirical model of stomatal conductance. Importantly, unlike empirical models, the optimization model relies on measurable physiological traits as inputs and performs well in predicting responses to novel environmental conditions without empirical corrections. Incorporating the optimization model in larger scale models has the potential for improving the simulation of water and carbon cycles.

Macro to micro: microwave remote sensing of plant water content for physiology and ecology

Although primarily valued for their suitability for oceanographic applications and soil moisture estimation, microwave remote sensing observations are also sensitive to plant water content (M_w ). Since M_w depends on both plant water status and biomass, these observations have the potential to be useful for a range of plant drought response studies. In this paper, we introduce the principles behind microwave remote sensing observations to illustrate how they are sensitive to plant water content and discuss the relationship between landscape-scale M_w and common stand-scale metrics, including plant-scale relative water content, live fuel moisture content and leaf water potential. Lastly, we discuss how various sensor types can be leveraged for specific applications depending on the spatio-temporal resolution needed.

Anisohydric behavior linked to persistent hydraulic damage and delayed drought recovery across seven North American tree species

The isohydry-anisohydry spectrum has become a popular way to characterize plant drought responses and recovery processes. Despite the proven utility of this framework for understanding the interconnected physiological changes plants undergo in response to water stress, new challenges have arisen pertaining to the traits and tradeoffs that underlie this concept. To test the utility of this framework for understanding hydraulic traits, drought physiology and recovery, we applied a 6 wk experimental soil moisture reduction to seven tree species followed by a 6 wk recovery period. Throughout, we measured hydraulic traits and monitored changes in gas exchange, leaf water potential, and hydraulic conductivity. Species' hydraulic traits were not coordinated, as some anisohydric species had surprisingly low resistance to embolism (P₅₀ ) and negative safety margins. In addition to widespread hydraulic damage, these species also experienced reductions in photosynthesis and stem water potential during water stress, and delayed recovery time. Given that we observed no benefit of being anisohydric either during or after drought, our results indicate the need to reconsider the traits and tradeoffs that underlie anisohydric behavior, and to consider the environmental, biological and edaphic processes that could allow this strategy to flourish in forests.

A framework for genomics-informed ecophysiological modeling in plants

Dynamic process-based plant models capture complex physiological response across time, carrying the potential to extend simulations out to novel environments and lend mechanistic insight to observed phenotypes. Despite the translational opportunities for varietal crop improvement that could be unlocked by linking natural genetic variation to first principles-based modeling, these models are challenging to apply to large populations of related individuals. Here we use a combination of model development, experimental evaluation, and genomic prediction in Brassica rapa L. to set the stage for future large-scale process-based modeling of intraspecific variation. We develop a new canopy growth submodel for B. rapa within the process-based model Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES), test input parameters for feasibility of direct estimation with observed phenotypes across cultivated morphotypes and indirect estimation using genomic prediction on a recombinant inbred line population, and explore model performance on an in silico population under non-stressed and mild water-stressed conditions. We find evidence that the updated whole-plant model has the capacity to distill genotype by environment interaction (G×E) into tractable components. The framework presented offers a means to link genetic variation with environment-modulated plant response and serves as a stepping stone towards large-scale prediction of unphenotyped, genetically related individuals under untested environmental scenarios.

Coupled ecohydrology and plant hydraulics modeling predicts ponderosa pine seedling mortality and lower treeline in the US Northern Rocky Mountains

We modeled hydraulic stress in ponderosa pine seedlings at multiple scales to examine its influence on mortality and forest extent at the lower treeline in the northern Rockies. We combined a mechanistic ecohydrologic model with a vegetation dynamic stress index incorporating intensity, duration and frequency of hydraulic stress events, to examine mortality from loss of hydraulic conductivity. We calibrated our model using a glasshouse dry-down experiment and tested it using in situ monitoring data on seedling mortality from reforestation efforts. We then simulated hydraulic stress and mortality in seedlings within the Bitterroot River watershed of Montana. We show that cumulative hydraulic stress, its legacy and its consequences for mortality are predictable and can be modeled at local to landscape scales. We demonstrate that topographic controls on the distribution and availability of water and energy drive spatial patterns of hydraulic stress. Low-elevation, south-facing, nonconvergent locations with limited upslope water subsidies experienced the highest rates of modeled mortality. Simulated mortality in seedlings from 2001 to 2015 correlated with the current distribution of forest cover near the lower treeline, suggesting that hydraulic stress limits recruitment and ultimately constrains the low-elevation extent of conifer forests within the region.

Moisture pulse-reserve in the soil-plant continuum observed across biomes

The degree to which individual pulses of available water drive plant activity across diverse biomes and climates is not well understood. It has previously only been investigated in a few dryland locations. Here, plant water uptake following pulses of surface soil moisture, an indicator for the pulse-reserve hypothesis, is investigated across South America, Africa and Australia with satellite-based estimates of surface soil and canopy water content. Our findings show that this behaviour is widespread: occurring over half of the vegetated landscapes. We estimate spatially varying soil moisture thresholds at which plant water uptake ceases, noting dependence on soil texture and proximity to the wilting point. The soil type and biome-dependent soil moisture threshold and the plant soil water uptake patterns at the scale of Earth system models allow a unique opportunity to test and improve model parameterization of vegetation function under water limitation.

A stomatal control model based on optimization of carbon gain versus hydraulic risk predicts aspen sapling responses to drought

Empirical models of plant drought responses rely on parameters that are difficult to specify a priori. We test a trait- and process-based model to predict environmental responses from an optimization of carbon gain vs hydraulic risk. We applied four drought treatments to aspen (Populus tremuloides) saplings in a research garden. First we tested the optimization algorithm by using predawn xylem pressure as an input. We then tested the full model which calculates root-zone water budget and xylem pressure hourly throughout the growing season. The optimization algorithm performed well when run from measured predawn pressures. The per cent mean absolute error (MAE) averaged 27.7% for midday xylem pressure, transpiration, net assimilation, leaf temperature, sapflow, diffusive conductance and soil-canopy hydraulic conductance. Average MAE was 31.2% for the same observations when the full model was run from irrigation and rain data. Saplings that died were projected to exceed 85% loss in soil-canopy hydraulic conductance, whereas surviving plants never reached this threshold. The model fit was equivalent to that of an empirical model, but with the advantage that all inputs are specific traits. Prediction is empowered because knowing these traits allows knowing the response to climatic stress.

Accounting for landscape heterogeneity improves spatial predictions of tree vulnerability to drought

As climate change continues, forest vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves is increasing, but vulnerability varies regionally and locally through landscape position. Also, most models used in forecasting forest responses to heat and drought do not incorporate relevant spatial processes. In order to improve spatial predictions of tree vulnerability, we employed a nonlinear stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics accounting for landscape differences in aspect, topography and soils. Across a watershed in central Texas we modeled dynamic water stress for a dominant tree species, Juniperus ashei, and projected future dynamic water stress through the 21^st century. Modeled dynamic water stress tracked spatial patterns of remotely sensed drought-induced canopy loss. Accuracy in predicting drought-impacted stands increased from 60%, accounting for spatially variable soil conditions, to 72% when also including lateral redistribution of water and radiation/temperature effects attributable to aspect. Our analysis also suggests that dynamic water stress will increase through the 21^st century, with trees persisting at only selected microsites. Favorable microsites/refugia may exist across a landscape where trees can persist; however, if future droughts are too severe, the buffering capacity of an heterogeneous landscape could be overwhelmed. Incorporating spatial data will improve projections of future tree water stress and identification of potential resilient refugia.

Tree hydraulic traits are coordinated and strongly linked to climate-of-origin across a rainfall gradient

Plant hydraulic traits capture the impacts of drought stress on plant function, yet vegetation models lack sufficient information regarding trait coordination and variation with climate-of-origin across species. Here, we investigated key hydraulic and carbon economy traits of 12 woody species in Australia from a broad climatic gradient, with the aim of identifying the coordination among these traits and the role of climate in shaping cross-species trait variation. The influence of environmental variation was minimized by a common garden approach, allowing us to factor out the influence of environment on phenotypic variation across species. We found that hydraulic traits (leaf turgor loss point, stomatal sensitivity to drought [P_gs ], xylem vulnerability to cavitation [P_x ], and branch capacitance [C_branch ]) were highly coordinated across species and strongly related to rainfall and aridity in the species native distributional range. In addition, trade-offs between drought tolerance and plant growth rate were observed across species. Collectively, these results provide critical insight into the coordination among hydraulic traits in modulating drought adaptation and will significantly advance our ability to predict drought vulnerability in these dominant trees species.

Co-occurring woody species have diverse hydraulic strategies and mortality rates during an extreme drought

From 2011 to 2013, Texas experienced its worst drought in recorded history. This event provided a unique natural experiment to assess species-specific responses to extreme drought and mortality of four co-occurring woody species: Quercus fusiformis, Diospyros texana, Prosopis glandulosa, and Juniperus ashei. We examined hypothesized mechanisms that could promote these species' diverse mortality patterns using postdrought measurements on surviving trees coupled to retrospective process modelling. The species exhibited a wide range of gas exchange responses, hydraulic strategies, and mortality rates. Multiple proposed indices of mortality mechanisms were inconsistent with the observed mortality patterns across species, including measures of the degree of iso/anisohydry, photosynthesis, carbohydrate depletion, and hydraulic safety margins. Large losses of spring and summer whole-tree conductance (driven by belowground losses of conductance) and shallower rooting depths were associated with species that exhibited greater mortality. Based on this retrospective analysis, we suggest that species more vulnerable to drought were more likely to have succumbed to hydraulic failure belowground.

Plant xylem hydraulics: What we understand, current research, and future challenges

Herein we review the current state-of-the-art of plant hydraulics in the context of plant physiology, ecology, and evolution, focusing on current and future research opportunities. We explain the physics of water transport in plants and the limits of this transport system, highlighting the relationships between xylem structure and function. We describe the great variety of techniques existing for evaluating xylem resistance to cavitation. We address several methodological issues and their connection with current debates on conduit refilling and exponentially shaped vulnerability curves. We analyze the trade-offs existing between water transport safety and efficiency. We also stress how little information is available on molecular biology of cavitation and the potential role of aquaporins in conduit refilling. Finally, we draw attention to how plant hydraulic traits can be used for modeling stomatal responses to environmental variables and climate change, including drought mortality.