Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century

Forest conservation mediating soil quality relationship with diversity of various plant layers in the biosphere of Arasabran, Iran

The link between biodiversity and ecosystem multi-functionality is an ongoing concern in ecological studies. Ecologists have focused on soil quality (SQ) as an ecosystem function and its relationship to biodiversity. Developing an appropriate and sensitive soil quality index (SQI) is critical, but it is severely restricted particularly in the forests. This study determined the most appropriate SQI for both protected and unprotected areas of Arasbaran biosphere reserve forests (Northwest Iran), as well as its relationship to the diversity of three layers of forest plant species (tree, tree regeneration, and forest floor plant cover), NDVI index, and litter amount. Three approaches were utilized to establish SQI for two types of soil data sets, including total data set (TDS) (pH, EC, SP. OC, caco3, clay, silt, sand, N, P, K, BD, gravel, C·N) and the minimum data sets (MDS) (SP. OC, clay, silt, N, K, BD, C·N): (1) SQI-1 (simple additive), (2) SQI-2 (Nemero quality index), and (3) SQI-3 (weighted additive modeled). Three SQI strategies were assessed using three different methods: Overall Sensitivity Index, Efficiency Index and Sensitivity Index. The findings revealed that the SQI-3 is the best SQI for employing only a limited number of soil properties (MDS). The findings revealed that the SQI-3 has a positive and significant relationship with the Evenness-tree and Taxa-Regeneration in the protected region (P-Value: 0.02). In contrast, the SQI-3 has a negative correlation with the NDVI (Normalized Difference vegetation Index) (P-Value: 0.02) but a positive significant relationship with the litter and Taxa-Grass indicators in the unprotected region (P-Value: 0.00). The study's findings demonstrated that forest preservation affected the link between the SQI and the studied parameters. As a result, it is concluded that biodiversity-ecosystem function is impacted by management changes and cannot be maintained constant under varied management conditions. This shift in the links between plant and SQ emphasizes the fact that plants biodiversity loss and SQ can have particularly severe consequences in non-protective conditions, necessitating biodiversity conservation measures to mitigate the effects of conservation.

Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types

Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

LG, Cruz-Neto AP. Combined effects of ambient temperature and food availability on induced innate immune response of a fruit-eating bat (Carollia perspicillata)

Resilience of mammals to anthropogenic climate and land-use changes is associated with the maintenance of adequate responses of several fitness-related traits such as those related to immune functions. Isolated and combined effects of decreased food availability and increased ambient temperature can lead to immunosuppression and greater susceptibility to disease. Our study tested the general hypothesis that decreased food availability, increased ambient temperature and the combined effect of both factors would affect selected physiological and behavioral components associated with the innate immune system of fruit-eating bats (Carollia perspicillata). Physiological (fever, leukocytosis and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) and behavioral (food intake) components of the acute phase response, as well as bacterial killing ability of the plasma were assessed after immune challenge with lipopolysaccharide (LPS: 10 mg/kg) in experimental groups kept at different short-term conditions of food availability (ad libitum diet or 50% food-deprived) and ambient temperature (27 and 33°C). Our results indicate that magnitude of increase in body temperature was not affected by food availability, ambient temperature or the interaction of both factors, but the time to reach the highest increase took longer in LPS-injected bats that were kept under food restriction. The magnitude of increased neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio was affected by the interaction between food availability and ambient temperature, but food intake, total white blood cell count and bacterial killing ability were not affected by any factor or interaction. Overall, our results suggest that bacterial killing ability and most components of acute phase response examined are not affected by short-term changes in food availability and ambient temperature within the range evaluated in this study, and that the increase of the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio when bats are exposed to low food availability and high ambient temperature might represent an enhancement of cellular response to deal with infection.

Alpine Rhododendron population contractions lead to spatial distribution mismatch with their pollinators under climate change

The effect of global climate change on plant-pollinator interaction is not limited to changes in phenology and richness within communities but also includes the spatial mismatch caused by the inconsistency of geographical distribution changes. Subsequently, the pollinator interaction network may be remodeled or even disrupted. In this study, we simulated the suitable habitat niche of 15 Rhododendron species and their eight pollinator species as well as their overlapping versus geographical mismatch under the current and three future climate change scenarios in 2090s, using MaxEnt. Results showed that the suitable habitat of all Rhododendron species would decrease in 2090s. In particular, 10, 8, and 13 Rhododendron-pollinator assemblages would have a reduced spatial match region under the climate change scenarios, mainly due to the contraction of the suitable habitat of Rhododendron species. The results provide novel insights into the response of plant-pollinator interactions to global warming, useful to prioritize conservation actions of alpine plant ecosystems.

The exposure of the world's mountains to global change drivers

Global change affects mountain areas at different levels, with some mountains being more exposed to change in climate or environmental conditions and others acting as local refugia. We quantified the exposure of the world's mountains to three drivers of change, climate, land use, and human population density, using two spatial-temporal metrics (velocity and magnitude of change). We estimated the acceleration of change for these drivers by comparing past (1975-2005) vs. future (2020-2050) exposure, and we also compared exposure in lowlands vs. mountains. We found Africa's tropical mountains facing the highest future exposure to multiple drivers of change, thus requiring targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies to preserve biodiversity. European and North America's mountains, in contrast, experience more limited exposure to global change and could act as local refugia for biodiversity. This knowledge can be used to prioritize local-scale interventions and planning long-term monitoring to reduce the risks faced by mountain biodiversity.

One way or another: Combined effect of dispersal and asymmetry on total realized asymptotic population abundance

Understanding the consequences on population dynamics of the variability in dispersal over a fragmented habitat remains a major focus of ecological and environmental inquiry. Dispersal is often asymmetric: wind, marine currents, rivers, or human activities produce a preferential direction of dispersal between connected patches. Here, we study how this asymmetry affects population dynamics by considering a discrete-time two-patch model with asymmetric dispersal. We conduct a rigorous analysis of the model and describe all the possible response scenarios of the total realized asymptotic population abundance to a change in the dispersal rate for a fixed symmetry level. In addition, we discuss which of these scenarios can be achieved just by restricting mobility in one specific direction. Moreover, we also report that changing the order of events does not alter the population dynamics in our model, contrary to other situations discussed in the literature.

Predicting the fundamental thermal niche of ectotherms

Climate warming is predicted to increase mean temperatures and thermal extremes on a global scale. Because their body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, ectotherms bear the full brunt of climate warming. Predicting the impact of climate warming on ectotherm diversity and distributions requires a framework that can translate temperature effects on ectotherm life-history traits into population- and community-level outcomes. Here we present a mechanistic theoretical framework that can predict the fundamental thermal niche and climate envelope of ectotherm species based on how temperature affects the underlying life-history traits. The advantage of this framework is twofold. First, it can translate temperature effects on the phenotypic traits of individual organisms to population-level patterns observed in nature. Second, it can predict thermal niches and climate envelopes based solely on trait response data and, hence, completely independently of any population-level information. We find that the temperature at which the intrinsic growth rate is maximized exceeds the temperature at which abundance is maximized under density-dependent growth. As a result, the temperature at which a species will increase the fastest when rare is lower than the temperature at which it will recover from a perturbation the fastest when abundant. We test model predictions using data from a naturalized-invasive interaction to identify the temperatures at which the invasive can most easily invade the naturalized's habitat and the naturalized is most likely to resist the invasive. The framework is sufficiently mechanistic to yield reliable predictions for individual species and sufficiently broad to apply across a range of ectothermic taxa. This ability to predict the thermal niche before a species encounters a new thermal environment is essential to mitigating some of the major effects of climate change on ectotherm populations around the globe.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

A Palearctic view of a bat fungal disease

The fungal infection causing white-nose disease in hibernating bats in North America has resulted in dramatic population declines of affected species, since the introduction of the causative agent Pseudogymnoascus destructans. The fungus is native to the Palearctic, where it also infects several bat species, yet rarely causes severe pathology or the death of the host. Pseudogymnoascus destructans infects bats during hibernation by invading and digesting the skin tissue, resulting in the disruption of torpor patterns and consequent emaciation. Relations among pathogen, host, and environment are complex, and individuals, populations, and species respond to the fungal pathogen in different ways. For example, the Nearctic Myotis lucifugus responds to infection by mounting a robust immune response, leading to immunopathology often contributing to mortality. In contrast, the Palearctic M. myotis shows no significant immunological response to infection. This lack of a strong response, resulting from the long coevolution between the hosts and the pathogen in the pathogen's native range, likely contributes to survival in tolerant species. After more than 15 years since the initial introduction of the fungus to North America, some of the affected populations are showing signs of recovery, suggesting that the fungus, hosts, or both are undergoing processes that may eventually lead to coexistence. The suggested or implemented management methods of the disease in North America have encompassed, for example, the use of probiotics and fungicides, vaccinations, and modifying the environmental conditions of the hibernation sites to limit the growth of the pathogen, intensity of infection, or the hosts' responses to it. Based on current knowledge from Eurasia, policy makers and conservation managers should refrain from disrupting the ongoing evolutionary processes and adopt a holistic approach to managing the epizootic.

Forage taste agents manage plant communities through modifying grazing behavior of yak in alpine meadow

The use of taste agents to regulate the grazing behavior of livestock is a new attempt in pasture management, but the effects on grassland plant communities are not clear at present. Therefore, the following scientific questions need to be addressed: (1) how do different taste agents affected plant community structure by changing feed intake? (2) What was the mechanism of this effect? We proposed the following hypotheses: (1) Salt and sweetener increased feed intake of livestock and decreased the biomass of plant community, while bitters did the opposite. (2) Taste agents can regulate the relationship between plant species, and different taste agents can enhance or weaken the competitiveness of the different plants. In order to test the hypothesis, a grazing experiment with yaks was conducted in the alpine meadows of the Tibetan Plateau. Denatonium benzoate (Bitterant), NaCl (Salt), and sodium cyclamate (Sweetener) were sprayed onto the meadows twice a year, along with a control treatment of tap water. The results showed that (1) Salt increased the feed intake of yak significantly; bitterant decreased the feed intake of livestock and increased the biomass of plant community. (2) Salt increased the Pielou index of the plant community significantly. (3) The stability of plant community ranking from high to low is as follows: Control > Bitterant > Sweetener > Salt. (4) Bitterant and salt improved grazing tolerance of grassland and salt reduced the edibility of grassland. (5) The use of taste agents reduced the correlation between dominant species and led to the fragmentation of the relationship chain. The results of this study will provide a theoretical basis for using taste agents to regulate the community, species biodiversity management, restoration of degraded grassland, promoting utilization of grassland though controlling livestock selectivity.

Integration of genomic and ecological methods inform management of an undescribed, yet highly exploited, sardine species

Assessing genetic diversity within species is key for conservation strategies in the context of human-induced biotic changes. This is important in marine systems, where many species remain undescribed while being overfished, and conflicts between resource-users and conservation agencies are common. Combining niche modelling with population genomics can contribute to resolving those conflicts by identifying management units and understanding how past climatic cycles resulted in current patterns of genetic diversity. We addressed these issues on an undescribed but already overexploited species of sardine of the genus Harengula. We find that the species distribution is determined by salinity and depth, with a continuous distribution along the Brazilian mainland and two disconnected oceanic archipelagos. Genomic data indicate that such biogeographic barriers are associated with two divergent intraspecific lineages. Changes in habitat availability during the last glacial cycle led to different demographic histories among stocks. One coastal population experienced a 3.6-fold expansion, whereas an island-associated population contracted 3-fold, relative to the size of the ancestral population. Our results indicate that the island population should be managed separately from the coastal population, and that a Marine Protected Area covering part of the island population distribution can support the viability of this lineage.

Local tree cover predicts mosquito species richness and disease vector presence in a tropical countryside landscape

Context

Land use change drives both biodiversity loss and zoonotic disease transmission in tropical countryside landscapes. Developing solutions for protecting countryside biodiversity, public health, and livelihoods requires understanding the scales at which habitat characteristics such as land cover shape biodiversity, especially for arthropods that transmit pathogens. Evidence increasingly shows that species richness for many taxa correlates with local tree cover.

Objectives

We investigated whether mosquito species richness, community composition, and presence of disease vector species responded to land use and tree cover - and if so, whether at spatial scales similar to other taxa.

Methods

We paired a field survey of mosquito communities in agricultural, residential, and forested lands in rural southern Costa Rica with remotely sensed tree cover data. We compared mosquito community responses to tree cover surrounding survey sites measured across scales, and analyzed community responses to land use and environmental gradients.

Results

Tree cover was positively correlated with mosquito species richness, and negatively correlated with the presence of the common invasive dengue vector Aedes albopictus, particularly at small spatial scales of 80 - 200m. Land use predicted community composition and Ae. albopictus presence. Environmental gradients of tree cover, temperature, and elevation explained 7% of species turnover among survey sites.

Conclusions

The results suggest that preservation and expansion of tree cover at local scales can protect biodiversity for a wide range of taxa, including arthropods, and also confer protection against disease vector occurrence. The identified spatial range of tree cover benefits can inform land management for conservation and public health protection.

Local tree cover predicts mosquito species richness and disease vector presence in a tropical countryside landscape

Context

Land use change drives both biodiversity loss and zoonotic disease transmission in tropical countryside landscapes. Developing solutions for protecting countryside biodiversity, public health, and livelihoods requires understanding the scales at which habitat characteristics such as land cover shape biodiversity, especially for arthropods that transmit pathogens. Evidence increasingly shows that species richness for many taxa correlates with local tree cover.

Objectives

We investigated whether mosquito species richness, community composition, and presence of disease vector species responded to land use and tree cover - and if so, whether at spatial scales similar to other taxa.

Methods

We paired a field survey of mosquito communities in agricultural, residential, and forested lands in rural southern Costa Rica with remotely sensed tree cover data. We compared mosquito community responses to tree cover surrounding survey sites measured across scales, and analyzed community responses to land use and environmental gradients.

Results

Tree cover was positively correlated with mosquito species richness, and negatively correlated with the presence of the common invasive dengue vector Aedes albopictus , particularly at small spatial scales of 80 - 200m. Land use predicted community composition and Ae. albopictus presence. Environmental gradients of tree cover, temperature, and elevation explained 7% of species turnover among survey sites.

Conclusions

The results suggest that preservation and expansion of tree cover at local scales can protect biodiversity for a wide range of taxa, including arthropods, and also confer protection against disease vector occurrence. The identified spatial range of tree cover benefits can inform land management for conservation and public health protection.

Two Growing-Season Warming Partly Promoted Growth but Decreased Reproduction and Ornamental Value of Impatiens oxyanthera

Climate warming profoundly affects the vegetative growth, flowering phenology and sexual reproduction of plants; therefore, it affects the ornamental value of wild flowers. Despite this, the extent and mechanism of the impact remain unclear. Here, we conducted a warming experiment for two growing seasons (increases of 1.89 °C in 2017 and 2.37 °C in 2018) with infrared heaters to examine the effects of warming on the ornamental value of the wild flower Impatiens oxyanthera, endemic to China, in Mount Emei. We evaluated the comprehensive ornamental value based on plant morphology and flowering characteristics using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and disentangled the impact of the two traits on ornamental value using principal component analysis (PCA) and the partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) under ambient and warming treatments. We hypothesized that warming would reduce the ornamental value of I. oxyanthera in terms of plant morphology and flowering traits. Our results showed that warming significantly decreased plant height and crown width and increased branch number and single-leaf area. Warming also decreased vexillum length, corolla tube length, nectar spur length and pedicel length. In addition, warming shortened flowering duration per plant and reduced flower number, while there was no significant effect on flower longevity and flower color at full-bloom stage between the control and warming treatment. Therefore, the comprehensive ornamental value under warming was lower than that under the control. Pedicel length, flower color, flower longevity and flowering duration per plant were the main factors affecting the comprehensive ornamental value. The PLS-SEM showed that warming had an indirect negative effect on ornamental value via direct negative effects on flowering traits. Collectively, these results indicate that, although promoting vegetative growth, short-term warming significantly decreased the ornamental value of I. oxyanthera due to warming-caused smaller flowers and shorter flowering duration.

A species' response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.

The role of genotypic and climatic variation at the range edge: A case study in winegrapes

PREMISE

Changes in habitat suitability due to climate change are causing range shifts, with new habitat potentially available at cold range edges. We must predict these range shifts, but forecasters have limited knowledge of how genetic differences in plant physiological tolerances influence range shifts. Here, we focus on a major determinant of species ranges-physiological tolerance to extreme cold-to ask how warming over recent decades and genetic variation shape expansion across complex landscapes.

METHODS

We examined how genotypes vary in maximum cold tolerance from 9 years of cold hardiness data across 18 genotypes from 13 sites, using winegrapes (Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera) as a case study. Combining a Bayesian hierarchical dose-response model with gridded climate data, we then project changes in climatic suitability near winegrapes' current cold range-edge between 1949 and 2016.

RESULTS

Plants increased maximum cold hardiness non-linearly with decreasing air temperature (maximum cold hardiness: -23.6°C), but with substantial (by 2°C) variation across genotypes. Our results suggest, since the 1980s, decreasing freeze injury risk has made conditions more favorable for all genotypes at the cold range-edge, but conditions remained more favorable for more cold hardy genotypes and in warmer areas. There was substantial spatial variation in habitat suitability, with the majority of suitably warm habitat located in a narrow north-south oriented strip.

CONCLUSIONS

We highlight the importance of genotypic differences in physiological tolerances when assessing range shift potential with climate change. Habitat improvements were unevenly distributed over the spatially complex landscape, though, emphasizing the importance of dispersal in range expansion.

Tree and shrub richness modifies subtropical tree productivity by regulating the diversity and community composition of soil bacteria and archaea

BACKGROUND

Declines in plant biodiversity often have negative consequences for plant community productivity, and it becomes increasingly acknowledged that this may be driven by shifts in soil microbial communities. So far, the role of fungal communities in driving tree diversity-productivity relationships has been well assessed in forests. However, the role of bacteria and archaea, which are also highly abundant in forest soils and perform pivotal ecosystem functions, has been less investigated in this context. Here, we investigated how tree and shrub richness affects stand-level tree productivity by regulating bacterial and archaeal community diversity and composition. We used a landscape-scale, subtropical tree biodiversity experiment (BEF-China) where tree (1, 2, or 4 species) and shrub richness (0, 2, 4, 8 species) were modified.

RESULTS

Our findings indicated a noteworthy decline in soil bacterial α-diversity as tree species richness increased from monoculture to 2- and 4- tree species mixtures, but a significant increase in archaeal α-diversity. Additionally, we observed that the impact of shrub species richness on microbial α-diversity was largely dependent on the level of tree species richness. The increase in tree species richness greatly reduced the variability in bacterial community composition and the complexity of co-occurrence network, but this effect was marginal for archaea. Both tree and shrub species richness increased the stand-level tree productivity by regulating the diversity and composition of bacterial community and archaeal diversity, with the effects being mediated via increases in soil C:N ratios.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide insight into the importance of bacterial and archaeal communities in driving the relationship between plant diversity and productivity in subtropical forests and highlight the necessity for a better understanding of prokaryotic communities in forest soils. Video Abstract.

Protocols for studying the crayfish plague pathogen, Aphanomyces astaci, and its host-pathogen interactions

The crayfish plague caused by the pathogen Aphanomyces astaci has decimated the European and Asian populations of freshwater crayfish and represents an important threat to the other highly susceptible crayfish species in the world, such as the Australian, Madagascar, and South American species. The development and application of molecular methods addressed to the identification of A. astaci has increased exponentially during the last decades in contrast to a slow trend of the pathogen biology and host interaction. There is still a need for a better comprehension of the A. astaci-crayfish interactions, specifically the resistance and tolerance immune mechanism. These types of studies required a robust basic knowledge on the developmental biology of the pathogen in order to reproduce life stages and to perform infection experiments. A great piece of work in this area was carried out during the 1960 s to 80 s in University of Uppsala. Thus, the purpose of this work was to update previous protocols as well as to generate new guidelines to reproduce key developmental biology stages of A. astaci, to eventually identify crayfish populations with higher resistance and tolerance to this pathogen. This work also refers to other methodologies and guidelines for the diagnosis of crayfish plague, the pathogen isolation, and the in vitro production of zoospores.

Five fundamental ways in which complex food webs may spiral out of control

Theory suggests that increasingly long, negative feedback loops of many interacting species may destabilize food webs as complexity increases. Less attention has, however, been paid to the specific ways in which these 'delayed negative feedbacks' may affect the response of complex ecosystems to global environmental change. Here, we describe five fundamental ways in which these feedbacks might pave the way for abrupt, large-scale transitions and species losses. By combining topological and bioenergetic models, we then proceed by showing that the likelihood of such transitions increases with the number of interacting species and/or when the combined effects of stabilizing network patterns approach the minimum required for stable coexistence. Our findings thus shift the question from the classical question of what makes complex, unaltered ecosystems stable to whether the effects of, known and unknown, stabilizing food-web patterns are sufficient to prevent abrupt, large-scale transitions under global environmental change.

Effects of habitat perturbation on lizard assemblages in the center-west of the Arid Chaco region, Argentina

Several human disturbances contribute to the decrease of vertebrate species' richness and abundance, altering the processes of an ecosystem. We evaluate richness, diversity and relative abundance of species for lizard assemblages at sites with different degrees of perturbation in the center-west of the Arid Chaco region in Argentina. Between 2015 and 2018, six lizard assemblages were sampled monthly -using pitfall traps- in three areas of the Chaco, with a perturbed and an unperturbed (control) replica at each of the areas: (1) Chaco Mountain plain, (2) Chaco Mountain slope, and (3) Chaco Plains, and habitat characteristics of each study site were recorded. We captured 1446 lizards, belonging to 12 species. The perturbed area at the Chaco Mountain plain showed the greatest richness, diversity and abundance of species. In the perturbed Chaco Plains, species abundance decreased by about 50% with respect to the control site. Liolaemus chacoensis was the dominant species at all sites. Some species could be negatively affected by a total loss of arboreal strata, tree trunks and fallen leaves. Structural parameters of lizard assemblages were related to the habitat characteristics; therefore, these results provide information for the conservation and management of lands and lizard assemblages in the Arid Chaco.

Avian Diversity Responds Unimodally to Natural Landcover: Implications for Conservation Management

Predicting species' ecological responses to landcovers within landscapes could guide conservation practices. Current modelling efforts derived from classic species-area relationships almost always predict richness monotonically increasing as the proportion of landcovers increases. Yet evidence to explain hump-shaped richness-landcover patterns is lacking. We tested predictions related to hypothesised drivers of peaked relationships between richness and proportion of natural landcover. We estimated richness from breeding bird atlases at different spatial scales (25 to 900 km2) in New York State and Southern Ontario. We modelled richness to gradients of natural landcover, temperature, and landcover heterogeneity. We controlled models for sampling effort and regional size of the species pool. Species richness peaks as a function of the proportion of natural landcover consistently across spatial scales and geographic regions sharing similar biogeographic characteristics. Temperature plays a role, but peaked relationships are not entirely due to climate-landcover collinearities. Heterogeneity weakly explains richness variance in the models. Increased amounts of natural landcover promote species richness to a limit in landscapes with relatively little (<30%) natural cover. Higher amounts of natural cover and a certain amount of human-modified landcovers can provide habitats for species that prefer open habitats. Much of the variation in richness among landscapes must be related to variables other than natural versus human-dominated landcovers.

Distribution pattern and change prediction of Phellodendron habitat in China under climate change

Phellodendron has always been of great significance in promoting human health and ecological restoration. However, human activities and climate change have severely affected habitat, population dynamics and sustainable use of Phellodendron. Little is known about the geographical distribution pattern and their responses to climate change of Phellodendron. In order to reveal the impact of climate change on Phellodendron, we conducted a study based on natural distribution data of two species (297 occurrence points), 20 environmental factors, and an optimized MaxEnt model. Our results identified the main environmental factors influencing Phellodendron, predicted their potential geographical distribution, and assessed migration trends under climate change in China. Our analysis showed that Ph. amurense and Ph. chinense have potential suitable habitats of 62.89 × 104 and 70.71 × 104 km2, respectively. Temperature and precipitation were found to play an essential role in shaping the present geographical distribution of Phellodendron populations. Based on two future climate scenarios, we forecasted that the potential suitable habitat of Ph. amurense would decrease by 12.52% (SSP245) and increase by 25.28% (SSP585), while Ph. chinense would decline by 19.61% (SSP245) and 15.78% (SSP585) in the late-21st century. The potential suitable habitats of Ph. amurense and Ph. chinense would shift to northward and westward, respectively. Hydrothermal change was found to be the primary driver of the suitable habitat of Phellodendron populations in the future. We recommend establishing nature reserves for existing Phellodendron populations, especially Ph. chinense. Our study provided a practical framework for the impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Phellodendron species and guided regional cultivation, long-term conservation, and sustainable use.

Scenarios of change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates

Mountains are among the natural systems most affected by climate change, and mountain mammals are considered particularly imperiled, given their high degree of specialization to narrow tolerance bands of environmental conditions. Climate change mitigation policies, such as the Paris Agreement, are essential to stem climate change impacts on natural systems. But how significant is the Paris Agreement to the survival of mountain mammals? We investigated how alternative emission scenarios may determine change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates in 2050. We based our predictions of future change in species niches based on how species have responded to past environmental changes, focusing on the probabilities of niche shrink and niche stability. We found that achieving the Paris Agreement's commitments would substantially reduce climate instability for mountain species. Specifically, limiting global warming to below 1.5°C would reduce the probability of niche shrinkage by 4% compared with a high-emission scenario. Globally, carnivores showed greater niche shrinkage than ungulates, whereas ungulates were more likely to shift their niches (i.e., face a level of climate change that allows adaptation). Twenty-three species threatened by climate change according to the IUCN Red List had greater niche contraction than other species we analyzed (3% higher on average). We therefore argue that climate mitigation policies must be coupled with rapid species-specific conservation intervention and sustainable land-use policies to avoid high risk of loss of already vulnerable species.

Forecast-based action for conservation

Extreme weather events pose an immediate threat to biodiversity, but existing conservation strategies have limitations. Advances in meteorological forecasting and innovation in the humanitarian sector provide a possible solution-forecast-based action (FbA). The growth of ecological forecasting demonstrates the huge potential to anticipate conservation outcomes, but a lack of operational examples suggests a new approach is needed to translate forecasts into action. FbA provides such a framework, formalizing the use of meteorological forecasts to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather. Based on experience from the humanitarian sector, I suggest how FbA could work in conservation, demonstrating key concepts using the theoretical example of heatwave impacts on sea turtle embryo mortality, and address likely challenges in realizing FbA for conservation, including establishing a financing mechanism, allocating funds to actions, and decision-making under uncertainty. FbA will demand changes in conservation research, practice, and governance. Researchers must increase efforts to understand the impacts of extreme weather at more immediate and actionable timescales and should coproduce forecasts of such impacts with practitioners. International conservation funders should establish systems to fund anticipatory actions based on uncertain forecasts.

On diversity of human-nature relationships in environmental sciences and its implications for the management of ecological crisis

Decision makers addressing the ecological crisis face the challenge of considering complex ecosystems in their socioeconomic decisions. Complementary to ecological sciences, other scientific frameworks, grouped under the umbrella term environmental sciences, offer decision makers the opportunity to pursue sustainable paths. Because the environmental sciences are drawn from different branches of science, environmental ethics must go beyond the legacy of ecology and the life sciences to describe the contribution of scientific knowledge to addressing the ecological crisis. In this regard, I analyze and compare three environmental sciences based on their seminal articles: Conservation Biology, Sustainability Science, and Sustainability Economics. My analysis shows that conservation biology and sustainability economics share strong similarities despite their different disciplinary backgrounds (life versus social sciences). Both seek to contrast a biocentric and an anthropocentric perspective. The goal of sustainability is therefore understood as a balance that must be found between these two perspectives. If the issue of balancing human and non-human interests is still relevant to sustainable science, it is more likely to take place in an ecocentric perspective based on alternative ontological and normative prescriptions. Based on this analysis, I distinguish between 'proscriptive value-based' scientific work that cannot be used for policy advice but is flexible to different value systems, and 'prescriptive value-based' scientific work that can be used for policy advice but is fixed within a given value system. Conflicting recommendations from environmental scientists therefore result from the coexistence of multiple 'prescriptive value-based' scientific approaches based on different conceptions of the relationship between humans and nature.

Climatic envelopes of the genus Lacerta Linnaeus, 1758 in Türkiye: an application of ecological niche modeling

Six species belonging to the genus Lacerta live in Türkiye. In this study, both present and future potential distribution maps were created based on occurrence data and climatic variables for these six species. Two scenarios for future projections (shared socioeconomic pathways, SSPs,: 245 and 585) and two timeframes (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) were used. The present and future potential distributions of these species were compared. As a result, it was predicted that the distribution ranges in the six species will expand in the future, and this expansion has revealed new environments.

Firefly (Coleoptera, Lampyridae) species from the Atlantic Forest hotspot, Brazil

Background

We compiled a database of firefly species records from the Atlantic Forest hotspot in Brazil and made it available at GBIF. Data were gathered from literature and from several key entomological collections, including: Coleção entomológica Prof. José Alfredo Pinheiro Dutra (DZRJ/UFRJ) and Coleção do Laboratório de Ecologia de Insetos from Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (CLEI/UFRJ); Coleção Entomológica do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz (CEIOC); Museu de Zoologia da Universidade de São Paulo (MZSP); Coleção Entomológica Pe. Jesus Santiago Moure from Universidade Federal do Paraná (DZUP/UFPR); and Coleção Entomológica from Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco (UFRPE). This database represents the largest contribution to a public repository of recorded occurrences from Neotropical fireflies.

New information

This dataset shows the occurrence and abundance of firefly species in the Atlantic Forest hotspot. Firefly species endemic to this biome are also present and considered in the study. These data can assist scientific and societal needs, by supporting future research projects and conservation decision-making.

Projected Shifts in Bird Distribution in India under Climate Change

Global climate change is causing unprecedented impacts on biodiversity. In India, there is little information available regarding how climate change affects biodiversity at the taxon/group level, and large-scale ecological analyses have been lacking. In this study, we demonstrated the applicability of eBird and GBIF (Global Biodiversity Information Facility), and produced national-scale forecasts to examine the possible impacts of climate change on terrestrial avifauna in India. Using data collected by citizen scientists, we developed fine-tuned Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and predicted 1091 terrestrial bird species that would be distributed in India by 2070 on two climatic surfaces (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), using Maximum Entropy-based species distribution algorithms. Of the 1091 species modelled, our findings indicate that 66–73% of bird species in India will shift to higher elevations or shift northward, and 58–59% of bird species (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) would lose a portion of their distribution ranges. Furthermore, distribution ranges of 41–40% of bird species would increase. Under both RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), bird species diversity will significantly increase in regions above 2500 m in elevation. Both RCP scenarios predict extensive changes in the species richness of the western Himalayas, Sikkim, northeast India, and the western Ghats regions by 2070. This study has resulted in novel, high-resolution maps of terrestrial bird species richness across India, and we predict predominantly northward shifts in species ranges, similar to predictions made for avifauna in other regions, such as Europe and the USA.

How predictable are mass extinction events?

Many modern extinction drivers are shared with past mass extinction events, such as rapid climate warming, habitat loss, pollution and invasive species. This commonality presents a key question: can the extinction risk of species during past mass extinction events inform our predictions for a modern biodiversity crisis? To investigate if it is possible to establish which species were more likely to go extinct during mass extinctions, we applied a functional trait-based model of extinction risk using a machine learning algorithm to datasets of marine fossils for the end-Permian, end-Triassic and end-Cretaceous mass extinctions. Extinction selectivity was inferred across each individual mass extinction event, before testing whether the selectivity patterns obtained could be used to 'predict' the extinction selectivity exhibited during the other mass extinctions. Our analyses show that, despite some similarities in extinction selectivity patterns between ancient crises, the selectivity of mass extinction events is inconsistent, which leads to a poor predictive performance. This lack of predictability is attributed to evolution in marine ecosystems, particularly during the Mesozoic Marine Revolution, associated with shifts in community structure alongside coincident Earth system changes. Our results suggest that past extinctions are unlikely to be informative for predicting extinction risk during a projected mass extinction.

Extinct in the wild: The precarious state of Earth's most threatened group of species

Extinct in the Wild (EW) species are placed at the highest risk of extinction under the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, but the extent and variation in this risk have never been evaluated. Harnessing global databases of ex situ animal and plant holdings, we report on the perilous state of EW species. Most EW animal species-already compromised by their small number of founders-are maintained at population sizes far below the thresholds necessary to ensure demographic security. Most EW plant species depend on live propagation by a small number of botanic gardens, with a minority secured at seed bank institutions. Both extinctions and recoveries are possible fates for EW species. We urgently call for international effort to enable the latter.

Mapping suitable habitat for Nigeria-Cameroon chimpanzees in Kom-Wum Forest Reserve, North-Western Cameroon

Great apes lose suitable habitats required for their reproduction and survival due to human activities across their distribution range in Africa. Little is known about habitat suitability of the Nigeria-Cameroon chimpanzee [Pan troglodytes ellioti (Matschie, 1914)], particularly for populations inhabiting forest reserves in North-West Cameroon. To address this knowledge gap, we employed a common species distribution model (MaxEnt) to map and predict suitable habitats for the Nigeria-Cameroon chimpanzee in Kom-Wum Forest Reserve, North-West Cameroon, based on environmental factors that potentially affect habitat suitability. We related these environmental factors to a dataset of chimpanzee occurrence points recorded during line transect and reconnaissance (recce) surveys in the forest reserve and surrounding forests.  Up to 91% of the study area is unsuitable for chimpanzees. Suitable habitats only represented 9% of the study area, with a high proportion of highly suitable habitats located outside the forest reserve. Elevation, secondary forests density, distance to villages and primary forests density were the most important predictors of habitat suitability for the Nigeria-Cameroon chimpanzee. The probability of chimpanzee occurrence increased with elevation, secondary forest density and distance from villages and roads. Our study provides evidence that suitable chimpanzee habitat in the reserve is degraded, suggesting that efforts to maintain protected areas are insufficient. The reserve management plan needs to be improved to conserve the remaining suitable habitat and to avoid local extinction of this endangered subspecies.

Spatio-temporal genetic structure of the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) populations inhabiting national parks in South Korea: Implications for conservation and management of protected areas

Population or habitat connectivity is a key component in maintaining species and community-level regional biodiversity as well as intraspecific genetic diversity. Ongoing human activities cause habitat destruction and fragmentation, which exacerbate the connectivity due to restricted animal movements across local habitats, eventually resulting in the loss of biodiversity. The Baekdudaegan Mountain Range (BMR) on the Korean Peninsula represents “biodiversity hotspots” and eight of the 22 Korean national parks are located within the BMR. Given the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) is the most common and ecologically important small mammals in these protected areas, the population genetic assessment of this species will allow for identifying “genetic diversity hotspots” and also “genetic barriers” that may hinder gene flow, and will therefore inform on effective conservation and management efforts for the national park habitats. We collected samples from hair, tail, or buccal swabs for 252 A. agrarius individuals in 2015 and 2019. By using mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b (cyt b) sequences and nine microsatellite loci, we determined levels of genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, and gene flow among eight national park populations of A. agrarius along the BMR. We found high levels of genetic diversity but the occurrences of inbreeding for all the nine samples analyzed. Our results also indicated that there was detectable temporal genetic variation between the 2015 and 2019 populations in the Jirisan National Park, which is probably due to a short-term decline in genetic diversity caused by reduced population sizes. We also found a well-admixed shared gene pool among the national park populations. However, a significant positive correlation between geographic and genetic distances was detected only in mtDNA but not microsatellites, which might be attributed to different dispersal patterns between sexes. There was a genetic barrier to animal movements around the Woraksan National Park areas. The poor habitat connectivity surrounding these areas can be improved by establishing an ecological corridor. Our findings of the presence of genetic barriers in some protected areas provide insights into the conservation and management efforts to improve the population or habitat connectivity among the national parks.

Trade-off between thermal preference and sperm maturation in a montane lizard

Temperature is a key abiotic factor that influences performance of several physiological traits in ectotherms. Organisms regulate their body temperature within a range of temperatures to enhance physiological function. The capacity of ectotherms, such as lizards, to maintain their body temperature within their preferred range influences physiological traits such as speed, various reproductive patterns, and critical fitness components, such as growth rates or survival. Here, we evaluate the influence of temperature on locomotor performance, sperm morphology and viability in a high elevation lizard species (Sceloporus aeneus). Whereas maximal values for sprint speed coincides with field active and preferred body temperature, short-term exposure at the same range of temperatures produces abnormalities in sperm morphology, lower sperm concentration and diminishes sperm motility and viability. In conclusion, we confirmed that although locomotor performance is maximized at preferred temperatures, there is a trade-off with male reproductive attributes, which may cause infertility. As a consequence, prolonged exposure to preferred temperatures could threaten the persistence of the species through reduced fertility. Persistence of the species is favored in environments with access to cooler, thermal microhabitats that enhance reproductive parameters.

Linking human impacts to community processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems

Human impacts such as habitat loss, climate change and biological invasions are radically altering biodiversity, with greater effects projected into the future. Evidence suggests human impacts may differ substantially between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but the reasons for these differences are poorly understood. We propose an integrative approach to explain these differences by linking impacts to four fundamental processes that structure communities: dispersal, speciation, species-level selection and ecological drift. Our goal is to provide process-based insights into why human impacts, and responses to impacts, may differ across ecosystem types using a mechanistic, eco-evolutionary comparative framework. To enable these insights, we review and synthesise (i) how the four processes influence diversity and dynamics in terrestrial versus freshwater communities, specifically whether the relative importance of each process differs among ecosystems, and (ii) the pathways by which human impacts can produce divergent responses across ecosystems, due to differences in the strength of processes among ecosystems we identify. Finally, we highlight research gaps and next steps, and discuss how this approach can provide new insights for conservation. By focusing on the processes that shape diversity in communities, we aim to mechanistically link human impacts to ongoing and future changes in ecosystems.

Surprising leopard restoration in fragmented ecosystems reveals connections as the secret to conservation success

The Chinese Loess Plateau has been the cradle of Chinese civilization and the main human settlement in China for thousands of years, where anthropogenic activities are believed to have deeply eroded natural landscapes. After decades of minimal leopard sighting in forests of northern China, due to serious human interference, we recently discovered that the leopard population is recovering. This finding provides hope for successful biodiversity conservation in human-dominated ecosystems. To understand the mechanism of leopard return into such a highly fragmented landscape, we applied the concept of ecological networks (ENs) to identify key factors promoting leopard restoration and quantify the ecological links among habitats. We first determined the existence of a healthy leopard population in the study area based on the size of its home range and presence of breeding individuals. We then innovatively used the relationship between species richness and top predators to generate ENs, and found that the connectivity of ENs had a significant positive interaction with leopard survival. Our study validates the effectiveness of establishing ecologically connected habitats for leopard protection, and highlights the importance of applying ENs for conservation planning in highly fragmented ecosystems. This study provides a successful case for the protection of top predators in human-dominated landscapes.

Habitat fragmentation matters more than habitat loss: The case of host-parasite interactions

While ecologists agree that habitat loss has a substantial negative effect on biodiversity it is still very much a matter of debate whether habitat fragmentation has a lesser effect and whether this effect is positive or negative for biodiversity. Here, we assess the relative influence of tropical forest loss and fragmentation on the prevalence of vector-borne blood parasites of the genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus in six forest bird species. We also determine whether habitat loss and fragmentation are associated with a rise or fall in prevalence. We sample more than 4000 individual birds from 58 forest sites in Guadeloupe and Martinique. Considering 34 host-parasite combinations independently and a fine characterization of the amount and spatial configuration of habitat, we use partial least square regressions to disentangle the relative effects of forest loss, forest fragmentation, landscape heterogeneity, and local weather conditions on spatial variability of parasite prevalence. Then we test for the magnitude and the sign of the effect of each environmental descriptor. Strikingly, we show that forest fragmentation explains twice as much of the variance in prevalence as habitat loss or landscape heterogeneity. In addition, habitat fragmentation leads to an overall rise in prevalence in Guadeloupe, but its effect is variable in Martinique. Both habitat loss and landscape heterogeneity exhibit taxon-specific effects. Our results suggest that habitat loss and fragmentation may have contrasting effects between tropical and temperate regions and that inter-specific interactions may not respond in the same way as more commonly used biodiversity metrics such as abundance and diversity.

Influence of landscape ecology and physiological implications in bats from different trophic guilds

Bats may serve as bioindicators of human impact on landscape ecology. This study aimed to evaluate the health condition of bats from different food guilds captured in two areas with different land use profiles in Brazil and to compare data on the oxidant-antioxidant balance and histopathological changes due to different anthropogenic pressures. Bats were collected from a protected area in Serra do Cipó National Park (SCNP), MG, Brazil, and an area with intense agricultural activity in the municipality of Uberaba (UB), MG, Brazil. Despite the differences in land use and occupation between the studied areas, bats showed similar responses. However, the trophic guilds were affected differently. Frugivorous bats in both areas showed lower activities of the enzymes superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), and glutathione S-transferase (GST) and concentrations of malondialdehyde (MDA) than other guilds, which can be explained by the greater intake of antioxidants from the diet in addition to the lower production of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Histopathological analysis of the livers revealed that the animals had a similar prevalence in the two areas, with some differences related to guilds. Compared with other bats, hematophagous bats from SCNP had a higher prevalence of steatosis and, together with frugivorous bats from Uberaba, had higher frequencies of ballooning degeneration, suggesting that these animals are subjected to anthropogenic factors capable of inducing disturbances in hepatic metabolism. Hematophagous bats from Uberaba had a higher prevalence of portal inflammation, while insectivorous bats from Uberaba had a higher prevalence of lobular and portal inflammation. The profiles of use and occupation of the areas are different; Uberaba bats seem to face worse conditions because they show more liver damage owing to lipoperoxidation.

Filling the gap in distribution ranges and conservation status in Ctenomys (Rodentia: Ctenomyidae)

South American subterranean rodents of the genus Ctenomys (Rodentia, Ctenomyidae, tuco-tuco) are one of the most diverse genera among mammals. Recently described species, new taxonomic revisions, and new distribution range delimitation made the revision of distribution areas and conservation status of these mammals mandatory. Implementing the first part of the DAMA protocol (document, assess, monitor, act), here we compile updated sets of species distribution range maps and use these and the number of collection localities to assess the conservation status of ctenomyids. We integrate potential for conservation in protected areas, and levels of habitat transformation to revise previous conservation status assessments and propose the first assessment for all Data Deficient or not evaluated species of tuco-tucos. Our results indicate that 53 (78%) of these species are threatened and that 47 (69%) have little or no overlap with protected areas, emphasizing the urgent need to conduct conservation efforts. Here, 18 of 22 species previously classified as Data Deficient resulted in them being put in an at-risk category (VU, EN, CR). In addition, nine species that have not been previously evaluated were classified as threatened, with these two groups comprising more than 47% of the known species. These results posit that the Ctenomyidae are the rodent family with the greatest number of species at risk of extinction. Finally, a total of 33 (49%) species have been reported from three or fewer localities; all considered threatened through the approach implemented in this study. These geographically restricted taxa should be given more attention in conservation programs since the richness of this genus relies on the survival of such species.

The Big Five: Species Distribution Models from Citizen Science Data as Tool for Preserving the Largest Protected Saproxylic Beetles in Italy

Background. Volunteers’ participation in scientific research has increased in recent decades. Citizen science (CS) data have been used in quantitative ecology to analyse species ranges by means of species distribution models. We investigated the Italian distribution of five large saproxylic beetles (big five), to describe their niche space, paramount areas for their conservation, and conservation gaps. Methods. CS data from two projects, climate and environmental variables were used to produce Habitat suitability (HS) maps for each species and averaged HS maps. The big five’s conservation status was assessed interpolating HS maps with the distribution of protected areas, concomitantly identifying conservation gaps. Results. The pre-alpine and Apennines arcs, north-eastern Sicily and eastern Sardinia, were identified as conservation’s hotspots. Ranking HS levels from minimum to optimal, the extent of conservation gaps decreases as environmental suitability for the big five increases. Conclusions. For the first time in Italy, CS data have been used to investigate niche space of the largest protected saproxylic beetles and analyse the distribution of their suitable habitat. The resulting HS raster maps and vector layers, reporting HS value in all Italian protected areas (n° 3771), were provided and discussed, reporting an application example for conservation purposes.

Phylogeography and genetic variation in Western Jacob's ladder (Polemonium occidentale) provide insights into the origin and conservation of rare species in the Great Lakes region

The perennial herb Western Jacob's Ladder (Polemonium occidentale, Polemoniaceae) is widespread in the mountains of western North America but reappears as a disjunct in the Great Lakes Region in Minnesota and Wisconsin, USA as the narrow endemic P. occidentale subsp. lacustre. This distribution is shown by a diverse assemblage of angiosperms. It has been hypothesized that these species became isolated just after the Last Glacial Maximum, but this has not been tested. Additionally, the genetic diversity and population connectivity of the endemic Great Lakes flora has been understudied, with important conservation implications. Using genotyping-by-sequencing, we examined the relationship of P. occidentale subsp. lacustre to its closest relatives, relationships among all known populations, and genetic diversity within these populations. Polemonium occidentale subsp. lacustre represents an isolated, unique lineage that diverged from its closest relatives 1.3 Ma and arrived in the Great Lakes Region by at least 38 ka. Nearly all extant populations diverged prior to the Last Glacial Maximum, are genetically distinct, and show little within-population genetic diversity. Clonality may mitigate reduction in diversity due to drift. Mixed population signal between Wisconsin and some Minnesota populations may be due to gene flow during the Late Pleistocene. While populations of P. occidentale subsp. lacustre may be relictual from a now extinct western relative, it is best treated as a distinct species. Conservation efforts should focus more on ensuring that current populations remain rather than maintaining large populations sizes across a few populations. However, encouraging habitat heterogeneity may accomplish both simultaneously.