Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

Range and climate niche shifts in European and North American breeding birds

Species respond dynamically to climate change and exhibit time lags. Consequently, species may not occupy their full climatic niche during range shifting. Here, we assessed climate niche tracking during recent range shifts of European and United States (US) birds. Using data from two European bird atlases and from the North American Breeding Bird Survey between the 1980s and 2010s, we analysed range overlap and climate niche overlap based on kernel density estimation. Phylogenetic multiple regression was used to assess the effect of species morphological, ecological and biogeographic traits on range and niche metrics. European birds shifted their ranges north and north-eastwards, US birds westwards. Range unfilling was lower than expected by null models, and niche expansion was more common than niche unfilling. Also, climate niche tracking was generally lower in US birds and poorly explained by species traits. Overall, our results suggest that dispersal limitations were minor in range shifting birds in Europe and the USA while delayed extinctions from unfavourable areas seem more important. Regional differences could be related to differences in land use history and monitoring schemes. Comparative analyses of range and niche shifts provide a useful screening approach for identifying the importance of transient dynamics and time-lagged responses to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Using ancient sedimentary DNA to forecast ecosystem trajectories under climate change

Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order to forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has revolutionised our ability to document past ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared to microfossils (pollen, spores), and can often give species-level information, especially for past vascular plant and mammal abundances. Time series are much richer in information than contemporary spatial distribution information, which have been traditionally used to train models for predicting biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate change. Here, we outline the potential contribution of sedaDNA to forecast ecosystem changes. We showcase how species-level time series may allow quantification of the effect of biotic interactions in ecosystem dynamics, and be used to estimate dispersal rates when a dense network of sites is available. By combining palaeo-time series, process-based models, and inverse modelling, we can recover the biotic and abiotic processes underlying ecosystem dynamics, which are traditionally very challenging to characterise. Dynamic models informed by sedaDNA can further be used to extrapolate beyond current dynamics and provide robust forecasts of ecosystem responses to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Interactive effects of drought and deforestation on multitrophic communities and aquatic ecosystem functions in the Neotropics-a test using tank bromeliads

Background

Together with the intensification of dry seasons in Neotropical regions, increasing deforestation is expected to exacerbate species extinctions, something that could lead to dramatic shifts in multitrophic communities and ecosystem functions. Recent studies suggest that the effects of habitat loss are greater where precipitation has decreased. Yet, experimental studies of the pure and interactive effects of drought and deforestation at ecosystem level remain scarce.

Methods

Here, we used rainshelters and transplantation from rainforest to open areas of natural microcosms (the aquatic ecosystem and microbial-faunal food web found within the rainwater-filled leaves of tank bromeliads) to emulate drought and deforestation in a full factorial experimental design. We analysed the pure and interactive effects of our treatments on functional community structure (including microorganisms, detritivore and predatory invertebrates), and on leaf litter decomposition in tank bromeliad ecosystems.

Results

Drought or deforestation alone had a moderate impact on biomass at the various trophic level, but did not eliminate species. However, their interaction synergistically reduced the biomass of all invertebrate functional groups and bacteria. Predators were the most impacted trophic group as they were totally eliminated, while detritivore biomass was reduced by about 95%. Fungal biomass was either unaffected or boosted by our treatments. Decomposition was essentially driven by microbial activity, and did not change across treatments involving deforestation and/or drought.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that highly resistant microorganisms such as fungi (plus a few detritivores) maintain key ecosystem functions in the face of drought and habitat change. We conclude that habitat destruction compounds the problems of climate change, that the impacts of the two phenomena on food webs are mutually reinforcing, and that the stability of ecosystem functions depends on the resistance of a core group of organisms. Assuming that taking global action is more challenging than taking local-regional actions, policy-makers should be encouraged to implement environmental action plans that will halt habitat destruction, to dampen any detrimental interactive effect with the impacts of global climate change.

Developing a predictive science of the biosphere requires the integration of scientific cultures

Increasing the speed of scientific progress is urgently needed to address the many challenges associated with the biosphere in the Anthropocene. Consequently, the critical question becomes: How can science most rapidly progress to address large, complex global problems? We suggest that the lag in the development of a more predictive science of the biosphere is not only because the biosphere is so much more complex, or because we do not have enough data, or are not doing enough experiments, but, in large part, because of unresolved tension between the three dominant scientific cultures that pervade the research community. We introduce and explain the concept of the three scientific cultures and present a novel analysis of their characteristics, supported by examples and a formal mathematical definition/representation of what this means and implies. The three cultures operate, to varying degrees, across all of science. However, within the biosciences, and in contrast to some of the other sciences, they remain relatively more separated, and their lack of integration has hindered their potential power and insight. Our solution to accelerating a broader, predictive science of the biosphere is to enhance integration of scientific cultures. The process of integration-Scientific Transculturalism-recognizes that the push for interdisciplinary research, in general, is just not enough. Unless these cultures of science are formally appreciated and their thinking iteratively integrated into scientific discovery and advancement, there will continue to be numerous significant challenges that will increasingly limit forecasting and prediction efforts.

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Leopard subspecies conservation under climate and land-use change

Predicting the effects of global environmental changes on species distribution is a top conservation priority, particularly for large carnivores, that contribute to regulating and maintaining ecosystems. As the most widespread and adaptable large felid, ranging across Africa and Asia, leopards are crucial to many ecosystems as both keystone and umbrella species, yet they are threatened across their ranges. We used intraspecific species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range suitability for leopards under future climate and land-use change and identify conservation gaps and opportunities. We generated intraspecific SDMs for the three western leopard subspecies, the African, Panthera pardus pardus; Arabian, Panthera pardus nimr; and Persian, Panthera pardus tulliana, leopards, and overlapped predictions with protected areas (PAs) coverage. We show that leopard subspecies differ in their environmental associations and vulnerability to future changes. The African and Arabian leopards are predicted to lose ~25% and ~14% of their currently suitable range, respectively, while the Persian leopard is predicted to experience ~12% range gains. We found that most areas predicted to be suitable were not protected, with only 4%-16% of the subspecies' ranges falling inside PAs, and that these proportions will decrease in the future. The highly variable responses we found between leopard subspecies highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation when modelling vulnerability to climate and land-use changes. The predicted decrease in proportion of suitable ranges falling inside PAs threatens global capacity to effectively conserve leopards because survival rates are substantially lower outside PAs due to persecution. Hence, it is important to work with local communities to address negative human-wildlife interactions and to restore habitats to retain landscape connectivity where PA coverage is low. On the other hand, the predicted increase in range suitability across southern Europe presents opportunities for expansion outside of their contemporary range, capitalising on European rewilding schemes.

An increase in management actions has compensated for past climate change effects on desert locust gregarization in western Africa

In response to high population density, the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria, becomes gregarious and forms swarms that can cause significant damage to crops and pastures, threatening food security of human populations from western Africa to India. This switch from solitary to gregarious populations is highly dependent on favorable weather conditions. Climate change, which has been hypothesized to shift conditions towards increasing risks of gregarization, is therefore likely to have significant impacts on the spatial distribution and likelihood of outbreak events. However, the desert locust is intensely managed at large scales, which possibly counteracts any increased risk of outbreaks due to a more favorable climate. Consequently, understanding the changes in risks in the future involves teasing out the effects of climate change and management actions. Here we studied the dynamics of gregarization at the very early stages of potential outbreaks, in parallel with trends in climate and management, between 1985 and 2018 in western Africa. We used three different spatial scales, with the goal to have a better understanding of the potential effects of climate change per se while controlling for management. Our first approach was to look at a regional scale, where we observed an overall decrease in gregarization events. However, this scale includes very heterogeneous environments and management efforts. To consider this heterogeneity, we divided the area into a grid of 0.5° cells. For each cell, a climate analysis was performed for rainfall and temperature, with trends obtained by a harmonic decomposition model on monthly data. Analyses of gregarization showed only a few significant trends, both positive and negative, mainly found in western Mauritania where management effort has increased. To improve the statistical power, these cells were then grouped into larger homogeneous climatic clusters, i.e. groups of cells with similar climatic conditions and similar climatic trends over the study period. At this scale, gregarization events depend on the intersection between climate conditions and management efforts. The clusters where gregarization increased were also the ones with the highest increase of management. These results highlight the important effect of preventive management, which may counteract the positive effects of climate change on locust proliferation.

Transgenerational epigenetic inheritance increases trait variation but is not adaptive

Understanding processes that can produce adaptive phenotypic shifts in response to rapid environmental change is critical to reducing biodiversity loss. The ubiquity of environmentally induced epigenetic marks has led to speculation that epigenetic inheritance could potentially enhance population persistence in response to environmental change. Yet, the magnitude and fitness consequences of epigenetic marks carried beyond maternal inheritance are largely unknown. Here, we tested how transgenerational epigenetic inheritance (TEI) shapes the phenotypic response of Daphnia clones to the environmental stressor Microcystis. We split individuals from each of eight genotypes into exposure and control treatments (F0 generation) and tracked the fitness of their descendants to the F3 generation. We found transgenerational epigenetic exposure to Microcystis led to reduced rates of survival and individual growth and no consistent effect on offspring production. Increase in trait variance in the F3 relative to F0 generations suggests potential for heritable bet hedging driven by TEI, which could impact population dynamics. Our findings are counter to the working hypothesis that TEI is a generally adaptive mechanism likely to prevent extinction for populations inhabiting rapidly changing environments.

Differential interference effects of thermal pollution on the induced defense of different body-sized cladocerans

Climate warming influences the biological activities of aquatic organisms, including feeding, growth, and reproduction, thereby affecting predator-prey interactions. This study explored the variation in thermal sensitivity of anti-predator responses in two cladoceran species with varying body sizes, Daphnia pulex and Ceriodaphnia cornuta. These species were cultured with or without the fish (Rhodeus ocellatus) kairomone at temperatures of 15, 20, 25, and 30 °C for 15 days. Results revealed that cladocerans of different body sizes exhibited varying responses to fish kairomones in aspects such as individual size, first-brood neonate size, total offspring number, average brood size, growth rate, and reproductive effort. Notably, low temperature differently affected defense responses in cladocerans of different body sizes. Both high and low temperatures moderated the intensity of the kairomone-induced response on body size at maturity. Additionally, low temperature reversed the reducing effect of fish kairomone on the total offspring number, average brood size, and reproductive effort in D. pulex. Conversely, it enhanced the increasing effect of fish kairomone on these parameters in C. cornuta. These results suggest that inducible anti-predator responses in cladocerans are modifiable by temperature. The differential effects of fish kairomones on various cladocerans under temperature influence offer crucial insights for predicting changes in predator-prey interactions within freshwater ecosystems under future climate conditions.

Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases

The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.

C4 photosynthesis provided an immediate demographic advantage to populations of the grass Alloteropsis semialata

C4 photosynthesis is a key innovation in land plant evolution, but its immediate effects on population demography are unclear. We explore the early impact of the C4 trait on the trajectories of C4 and non-C4 populations of the grass Alloteropsis semialata. We combine niche models projected into paleoclimate layers for the last 5 million years with demographic models based on genomic data. The initial split between C4 and non-C4 populations was followed by a larger expansion of the ancestral C4 population, and further diversification led to the unparalleled expansion of descendant C4 populations. Overall, C4 populations spread over three continents and achieved the highest population growth, in agreement with a broader climatic niche that rendered a large potential range over time. The C4 populations that remained in the region of origin, however, experienced lower population growth, rather consistent with local geographic constraints. Moreover, the posterior transfer of some C4-related characters to non-C4 counterparts might have facilitated the recent expansion of non-C4 populations in the region of origin. Altogether, our findings support that C4 photosynthesis provided an immediate demographic advantage to A. semialata populations, but its effect might be masked by geographic contingencies.

Ancient DNA and osteological analyses of a unique paleo-archive reveal Early Holocene faunal expansion into the Scandinavian Arctic

Paleo-archives are essential for our understanding of species responses to climate warming, yet such archives are extremely rare in the Arctic. Here, we combine morphological analyses and bulk-bone metabarcoding to investigate a unique chronology of bone deposits sealed in the high-latitude Storsteinhola cave system (68°50' N 16°22' E) in Norway. This deposit dates to a period of climate warming from the end of the Late Glacial [~13 thousand calibrated years before the present (ka cal B.P.)] to the Holocene thermal maximum (~5.6 ka cal B.P.). Paleogenetic analyses allow us to exploit the 1000s of morphologically unidentifiable bone fragments resulting in a high-resolution sequence with 40 different taxa, including species not previously found here. Our record reveals borealization in both the marine and terrestrial environments above the Arctic Circle as a naturally recurring phenomenon in past periods of warming, providing fundamental insights into the ecosystem-wide responses that are ongoing today.

Shoals in troubled waters? The impact of rising temperatures on metabolism, foraging, and shoaling behavior in mixed-species shoals

Rising water temperatures across aquatic habitats, in the current global climate change scenario, can directly affect metabolism and food intake in fish species. This can potentially alter their physiological, behavioral, and shoaling properties. In the current study, we examined the effects of high temperatures on metabolism, foraging, and shoaling in tropical fish. Mixed-species (comprising flying barbs, zebrafish, and gambusia) and single-species (flying barbs and zebrafish) shoals were conditioned for 45 days to three kinds of temperature regimes: the current temperature regime (CTR), in which shoals were maintained at water temperature of 24°C (i.e., the current mean temperature of their habitat), the predicted temperature regime (PTR) at 31°C (i.e., simulating conditions projected for their habitat in 2100), and the dynamic temperature regime (DTR), which experienced daily temperature fluctuations between 24 and 31°C (i.e., resembling rapid temperature changes expected in their natural environments). We found species-specific responses to these temperature regimes. Flying barbs exhibited significantly lower body weight at PTR but maintained consistent muscle glycogen content across all temperature regimes. In contrast, zebrafish and gambusia displayed significantly elevated muscle glycogen content at PTR, with similar body weights across all three temperature regimes. Cohesion within flying barb shoals and cohesion/polarization in mixed-species shoals decreased significantly at PTR. Shoals exposed to DTR exhibited intermediate characteristics between those conditioned to CTR and PTR, suggesting that shoals may be less impacted by dynamic temperatures compared to prolonged high temperatures. This study highlights species-specific metabolic responses to temperature changes and their potential implications for larger-scale shoal properties.

Environmental drivers and cryptic biodiversity hotspots define endophytes in Earth's largest terrestrial biome

Understanding how symbiotic associations differ across environmental gradients is key to predicting the fate of symbioses as environments change, and it is vital for detecting global reservoirs of symbiont biodiversity in a changing world.1,2,3 However, sampling of symbiotic partners at the full-biome scale is difficult and rare. As Earth's largest terrestrial biome, boreal forests influence carbon dynamics and climate regulation at a planetary scale. Plants and lichens in this biome host the highest known phylogenetic diversity of fungal endophytes, which occur within healthy photosynthetic tissues and can influence hosts' resilience to stress.4,5 We examined how communities of endophytes are structured across the climate gradient of the boreal biome, focusing on the dominant plant and lichen species occurring across the entire south-to-north span of the boreal zone in eastern North America. Although often invoked for understanding the distribution of biodiversity, neither a latitudinal gradient nor mid-domain effect5,6,7 can explain variation in endophyte diversity at this trans-biome scale. Instead, analyses considering shifts in forest characteristics, Picea biomass and age, and nutrients in host tissues from 46° to 58° N reveal strong and distinctive signatures of climate in defining endophyte assemblages in each host lineage. Host breadth of endophytes varies with climate factors, and biodiversity hotspots can be identified at plant-community transitions across the boreal zone at a global scale. Placed against a backdrop of global circumboreal sampling,4 our study reveals the sensitivity of endophytic fungi, their reservoirs of biodiversity, and their important symbiotic associations, to climate.

Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Microgeographic variation in demography and thermal regimes stabilize regional abundance of a widespread freshwater fish

Predicting the persistence of species under climate change is an increasingly important objective in ecological research and management. However, biotic and abiotic heterogeneity can drive asynchrony in population responses at small spatial scales, complicating species-level assessments. For widely distributed species consisting of many fragmented populations, such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), understanding the drivers of asynchrony in population dynamics can improve the predictions of range-wide climate impacts. We analyzed the demographic time series from mark-recapture surveys of 11 natural brook trout populations in eastern Canada over 13 years to examine the extent, drivers, and consequences of fine-scale population variation. The focal populations were genetically differentiated, occupied a small area (~25 km2 ) with few human impacts, and experienced similar climate conditions. Recruitment was highly asynchronous, weakly related to climate variables and showed population-specific relationships with other demographic processes, generating diverse population dynamics. In contrast, individual growth was mostly synchronized among populations and driven by a shared positive relationship with stream temperature. Outputs from population-specific models were unrelated to four of the five hypothesized drivers (recruitment, growth, reproductive success, phylogenetic distance), but variation in groundwater inputs strongly influenced stream temperature regimes and stock-recruitment relationships. Finally, population asynchrony generated a portfolio effect that stabilized regional species abundance. Our results demonstrated that population demographics and habitat diversity at microgeographic scales can play a significant role in moderating species responses to climate change. Moreover, we suggest that the absence of human activities within study streams preserved natural habitat variation and contributed to asynchrony in brook trout abundance, while the small study area eased monitoring and increased the likelihood of detecting asynchrony. Therefore, anthropogenic habitat degradation, landscape context, and spatial scale must be considered when developing management strategies to monitor and maintain populations that are diverse, stable, and resilient to climate change.

Individual variation in thermally induced plasticity of metabolic rates: ecological and evolutionary implications for a warming world

Energy metabolism is a fundamental property of life providing the energy for all processes and functions within an organism. As it is temperature-dependent, it mediates the effects of changing climate on ectotherm fitness and population dynamics. Though resting metabolic rate is a highly labile trait, part of its variation is individually consistent. Recent findings show that resting metabolic rate contains consistent variation not only in the elevations (intercepts) but also in the slopes of individual thermal dependence curves, challenging the thermal dependence assumption for this trait in several ectotherm taxa. I argue that among-individual variation in thermal metabolic curves represents a previously undetected component of ectotherm response to climate change, potentially affecting their adaptive capacity and population resilience under increasing stochasticity of thermal environment. Future studies need to examine not only the amount of among-individual variation in thermal metabolic curves across phylogenetic contexts but also other aspects concerning its mechanisms and adaptive significance to improve predictions about the impact of climate change on ectotherm population dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'The evolutionary significance of variation in metabolic rates'.

Demographic responses of oceanic island birds to local and regional ecological disruptions revealed by whole-genome sequencing

Disentangling the effects of ecological disruptions operating at different spatial and temporal scales in shaping past species' demography is particularly important in the current context of rapid environmental changes driven by both local and regional factors. We argue that volcanic oceanic islands provide useful settings to study the influence of past ecological disruptions operating at local and regional scales on population demographic histories. We investigate potential drivers of past population dynamics for three closely related species of passerine birds from two volcanic oceanic islands, Reunion and Mauritius (Mascarene archipelago), with distinct volcanic history. Using ABC and PSMC inferences from complete genomes, we reconstructed the demographic history of the Reunion Grey White-eye (Zosterops borbonicus (Pennant, 1781)), the Reunion Olive White-eye (Z. olivaceus (Linnaeus, 1766)) and the Mauritius Grey White-eye (Z. mauritianus (Gmelin, 1789)) and searched for possible causes underlying similarities or differences between species living on the same or different islands. Both demographic inferences strongly support ancient and long-term expansions in all species. They also reveal different trajectories between species inhabiting different islands, but consistent demographic trajectories in species or populations from the same island. Species from Reunion appear to have experienced synchronous reductions in population size during the Last Glacial Maximum, a trend not seen in the Mauritian species. Overall, this study suggests that local events may have played a role in shaping population trajectories of these island species. It also highlights the potential of our conceptual framework to disentangle the effects of local and regional drivers on past species' demography and long-term population processes.

When and how can we predict adaptive responses to climate change?

Predicting if, when, and how populations can adapt to climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges in science today. Here, we build from contributions to the special issue on evolutionary adaptation to climate change, a survey of its authors, and recent literature to explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. We outline what might be predictable now, in the future, and perhaps never even with our best efforts. More accurate predictions are expected for traits characterized by a well-understood mapping between genotypes and phenotypes and traits experiencing strong, direct selection due to climate change. A meta-analysis revealed an overall moderate trait heritability and evolvability in studies performed under future climate conditions but indicated no significant change between current and future climate conditions, suggesting neither more nor less genetic variation for adapting to future climates. Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, especially for the many species without sufficient ecological data. Still, when polled, authors contributing to this special issue were relatively optimistic about our ability to predict future evolutionary responses to climate change. Predictions will improve as we expand efforts to understand diverse organisms, their ecology, and their adaptive potential. Advancements in functional genomic resources, especially their extension to non-model species and the union of evolutionary experiments and "omics," should also enhance predictions. Although predicting evolutionary responses to climate change remains challenging, even small advances will reduce the substantial uncertainties surrounding future evolutionary responses to climate change.

The importance of species addition 'versus' replacement varies over succession in plant communities after glacier retreat

The mechanisms underlying plant succession remain highly debated. Due to the local scope of most studies, we lack a global quantification of the relative importance of species addition 'versus' replacement. We assessed the role of these processes in the variation (β-diversity) of plant communities colonizing the forelands of 46 retreating glaciers worldwide, using both environmental DNA and traditional surveys. Our findings indicate that addition and replacement concur in determining community changes in deglaciated sites, but their relative importance varied over time. Taxa addition dominated immediately after glacier retreat, as expected in harsh environments, while replacement became more important for late-successional communities. These changes were aligned with total β-diversity changes, which were more pronounced between early-successional communities than between late-successional communities (>50 yr since glacier retreat). Despite the complexity of community assembly during plant succession, the observed global pattern suggests a generalized shift from the dominance of facilitation and/or stochastic processes in early-successional communities to a predominance of competition later on.

A fiddler crab reduces plant growth in its expanded range

Species across the planet are shifting or expanding their ranges because of climate change. These are climate migrants. Although climate migrants are well documented, their impacts on recipient ecosystems are not. Climate migrants that are also ecosystem engineers (species that modify or create habitats) will likely have profound effects on ecosystems. The Atlantic marsh fiddler crab, Minuca pugnax, is a burrowing crab that recently expanded its range into the northeastern United States. In its historical range, M. pugnax enhances the aboveground growth of the cordgrass Spartina alterniflora, a plant critical to marsh persistence. In a control-impact study, however, we found that Spartina aboveground biomass was 40% lower when M. pugnax was present. Thus, the positive effect of M. pugnax on Spartina aboveground biomass flipped to a negative one in its expanded range. Spartina belowground biomass was also 30% lower on average when crabs were present, a finding consistent with what is seen in the historical range. These impacts on Spartina are likely due to burrowing by M. pugnax. Benthic microalgae was, on average, 45% lower when crabs were present. Fiddler crabs eat benthic microalgae, and these results suggest that fiddler crabs can control algal biomass via grazing. Because fiddler crabs reduced the biomass of foundational primary producers in its expanded range, our results imply that M. pugnax can influence other saltmarsh functions such as carbon storage and accretion as they expand north. Most strikingly, our results suggest that as species expand or shift their range with climate change, not only can they have profound impacts in their new ranges but those impacts can be the inverse of what is seen in their historical ranges.

Comparative Study of Potential Habitats for Simulium qinghaiense (Diptera: Simuliidae) in the Huangshui River Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: An Analysis Using Four Ecological Niche Models and Optimized Approaches

The Huangshui River, a vital tributary in the upper reaches of the Yellow River within the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, is home to the endemic black fly species S. qinghaiense. In this study, we conducted a systematic survey of the distribution of the species in the Huangshui River basin, revealing its predominant presence along the river's main stem. Based on four ecological niche models-MaxEnt with parameter optimization; GARP; BIOCLIM; and DOMAIN-we conduct a comparative analysis; evaluating the accuracy of AUC and Kappa values. Our findings indicate that optimizing parameters significantly improves the MaxEnt model's predictive accuracy by reducing complexity and overfitting. Furthermore, all four models exhibit higher accuracy compared to a random model, with MaxEnt demonstrating the highest AUC and Kappa values (0.9756 and 0.8118, respectively), showcasing significant superiority over the other models (p < 0.05). Evaluation of predictions from the four models elucidates that potential areas of S. qinghaiense in the Huangshui River basin are primarily concentrated in the central and southern areas, with precipitation exerting a predominant influence. Building upon these results, we utilized the MaxEnt model to forecast changes in suitable areas and distribution centers during the Last Interglacial (LIG), Mid-Holocene (MH), and future periods under three climate scenarios. The results indicate significantly smaller suitable areas during LIG and MH compared to the present, with the center of distribution shifting southeastward from the Qilian Mountains to the central part of the basin. In the future, suitable areas under different climate scenarios are expected to contract, with the center of distribution shifting southeastward. These findings provide important theoretical references for monitoring, early warning, and control measures for S. qinghaiense in the region, contributing to ecological health assessment.

A species' response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

Metabolic responses to cold and warm extremes in the ocean

Temperature influences the geographical distribution of species, but its mechanisms are much debated. A new study in PLOS Biology suggests that metabolic constrains can arise in both warm and cold waters at the geographical range limits of marine species.

Extinction risks and mitigation for a megaherbivore, the giraffe, in a human-influenced landscape under climate change

Megaherbivores play "outsized" roles in ecosystem functioning but are vulnerable to human impacts such as overhunting, land-use changes, and climate extremes. However, such impacts-and combinations of these impacts-on population dynamics are rarely examined using empirical data. To guide effective conservation actions under increasing global-change pressures, we developed a socially structured individual-based model (IBM) using long-term demographic data from female giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) in a human-influenced landscape in northern Tanzania, the Tarangire Ecosystem. This unfenced system includes savanna habitats with a wide gradient of anthropogenic pressures, from national parks, a wildlife ranch and community conservation areas, to unprotected village lands. We then simulated and projected over 50 years how realistic environmental and land-use management changes might affect this metapopulation of female giraffes. Scenarios included: (1) anthropogenic land-use changes including roads and agricultural/urban expansion; (2) reduction or improvement in wildlife law enforcement measures; (3) changes in populations of natural predators and migratory alternative prey; and (4) increases in rainfall as predicted for East Africa. The factor causing the greatest risk of rapid declines in female giraffe abundance in our simulations was a reduction in law enforcement leading to more poaching. Other threats decreased abundances of giraffes, but improving law enforcement in both of the study area's protected areas mitigated these impacts: a 0.01 increase in giraffe survival probability from improved law enforcement mitigated a 25% rise in heavy rainfall events by increasing abundance 19%, and mitigated the expansion of towns and blockage of dispersal movements by increasing abundance 22%. Our IBM enabled us to further quantify fine-scale abundance changes among female giraffe social communities, revealing potential source-sink interactions within the metapopulation. This flexible methodology can be adapted to test additional ecological questions in this landscape, or to model populations of giraffes or other species in different ecosystems.

Towards exhaustive community ecology via DNA metabarcoding

Exhaustive biodiversity data, covering all the taxa in an environment, would be fundamental to understand how global changes influence organisms living at different trophic levels, and to evaluate impacts on interspecific interactions. Molecular approaches such as DNA metabarcoding are boosting our ability to perform biodiversity inventories. Nevertheless, even though a few studies have recently attempted exhaustive reconstructions of communities, holistic assessments remain rare. The majority of metabarcoding studies published in the last years used just one or two markers and analysed a limited number of taxonomic groups. Here, we provide an overview of emerging approaches that can allow all-taxa biological inventories. Exhaustive biodiversity assessments can be attempted by combining a large number of specific primers, by exploiting the power of universal primers, or by combining specific and universal primers to obtain good information on key taxa while limiting the overlooked biodiversity. Multiplexes of primers, shotgun sequencing and capture enrichment may provide a better coverage of biodiversity compared to standard metabarcoding, but still require major methodological advances. Here, we identify the strengths and limitations of different approaches, and suggest new development lines that might improve broad scale biodiversity analyses in the near future. More holistic reconstructions of ecological communities can greatly increase the value of metabarcoding studies, improving understanding of the consequences of ongoing environmental changes on the multiple components of biodiversity.

Functional traits and drought strategy predict leaf thermal tolerance

Heat stress imposes an important physiological constraint on native plant species-one that will only worsen with human-caused climate change. Indeed, rising temperatures have already contributed to large-scale plant mortality events across the globe. These impacts may be especially severe in cities, where the urban heat island effect amplifies climate warming. Understanding how plant species will respond physiologically to rising temperatures and how these responses differ among plant functional groups is critical for predicting future biodiversity scenarios and making informed land management decisions. In this study, we evaluated the effects of elevated temperatures on a functionally and taxonomically diverse group of woody native plant species in a restored urban nature preserve in southern California using measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence as an indicator of leaf thermotolerance. Our aim was to determine if species' traits and drought strategies could serve as useful predictors of thermotolerance. We found that leaf thermotolerance differed among species with contrasting drought strategies, and several leaf-level functional traits were significant predictors of thermotolerance thresholds. Drought deciduous species with high specific leaf area, high rates of transpiration and low water use efficiency were the most susceptible to heat damage, while evergreen species with sclerophyllous leaves, high relative water content and high water use efficiency maintained photosynthetic function at higher temperatures. While these native shrubs and trees are physiologically equipped to withstand relatively high temperatures in this Mediterranean-type climate, hotter conditions imposed by climate change and urbanization may exceed the tolerance thresholds of many species. We show that leaf functional traits and plant drought strategies may serve as useful indicators of species' vulnerabilities to climate change, and this information can be used to guide restoration and conservation in a warmer world.

A dataset for benchmarking Neotropical anuran calls identification in passive acoustic monitoring

Global change is predicted to induce shifts in anuran acoustic behavior, which can be studied through passive acoustic monitoring (PAM). Understanding changes in calling behavior requires automatic identification of anuran species, which is challenging due to the particular characteristics of neotropical soundscapes. In this paper, we introduce a large-scale multi-species dataset of anuran amphibians calls recorded by PAM, that comprises 27 hours of expert annotations for 42 different species from two Brazilian biomes. We provide open access to the dataset, including the raw recordings, experimental setup code, and a benchmark with a baseline model of the fine-grained categorization problem. Additionally, we highlight the challenges of the dataset to encourage machine learning researchers to solve the problem of anuran call identification towards conservation policy. All our experiments and resources have been made available at https://soundclim.github.io/anuraweb/ .

Mechanistic modeling of climate effects on redistribution and population growth in a community of fish species

Understanding community responses to climate is critical for anticipating the future impacts of global change. However, despite increased research efforts in this field, models that explicitly include important biological mechanisms are lacking. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on species is complicated by the fact that the effects of climate variation may manifest at several points in the biological process. To this end, we extend a dynamic mechanistic model that combines population dynamics, such as species interactions, with species redistribution by allowing climate to affect both processes. We examine their relative contributions in an application to the changing biomass of a community of eight species in the Gulf of Maine using over 30 years of fisheries data from the Northeast Fishery Science Center. Our model suggests that the mechanisms driving biomass trends vary across space, time, and species. Phase space plots demonstrate that failing to account for the dynamic nature of the environmental and biologic system can yield theoretical estimates of population abundances that are not observed in empirical data. The stock assessments used by fisheries managers to set fishing targets and allocate quotas often ignore environmental effects. At the same time, research examining the effects of climate change on fish has largely focused on redistribution. Frameworks that combine multiple biological reactions to climate change are particularly necessary for marine researchers. This work is just one approach to modeling the complexity of natural systems and highlights the need to incorporate multiple and possibly interacting biological processes in future models.

Spatial sorting promotes rapid (mal)adaptation in the red-shouldered soapberry bug after hurricane-driven local extinctions

Predicting future evolutionary change is a critical challenge in the Anthropocene as geographic range shifts and local extinction emerge as hallmarks of planetary change. Hence, spatial sorting-a driver of rapid evolution in which dispersal-associated traits accumulate along expanding range edges and within recolonized habitats-might be of growing importance in ecology and conservation. We report on the results of a natural experiment that monitored recolonization of host plants by the seed-feeding, red-shouldered soapberry bug, Jadera haematoloma, after local extinctions from catastrophic flooding in an extreme hurricane. We tested the contribution of spatial sorting to generate rapid and persistent evolution in dispersal traits, as well as in feeding traits unrelated to dispersal. Long-winged dispersal forms accumulated in recolonized habitats and due to genetic correlation, mouthparts also became longer and this shift persisted across generations. Those longer mouthparts were probably adaptive on one host plant species but maladaptive on two others based on matching the optimum depth of seeds within their host fruits. Moreover, spatial sorting eroded recently evolved adaptive divergence in mouthpart length among all host-associated biotypes, an outcome pointing to profound practical consequences of the extreme weather event for local adaptation, population resilience and evolutionary futures.

Effect of epidemic diseases on wild animal conservation

Under the background of global species extinction, the impact of epidemic diseases on wild animal protection is increasingly prominent. Here, we review and synthesize the literature on this topic, and discuss the relationship between diseases and biodiversity. Diseases usually reduce species diversity by decreasing or extinction of species populations, but also accelerate species evolution and promote species diversity. At the same time, species diversity can regulate disease outbreaks through dilution or amplification effects. The synergistic effect of human activities and global change is emphasized, which further aggravates the complex relationship between biodiversity and diseases. Finally, we emphasize the importance of active surveillance of wild animal diseases, which can protect wild animals from potential diseases, maintain population size and genetic variation, and reduce the damage of diseases to the balance of the whole ecosystem and human health. Therefore, we suggest that a background survey of wild animal populations and their pathogens should be carried out to assess the impact of potential outbreaks on the population or species level. The mechanism of dilution and amplification effect between species diversity and diseases of wild animals should be further studied to provide a theoretical basis and technical support for human intervention measures to change biodiversity. Most importantly, we should closely combine the protection of wild animals with the establishment of an active surveillance, prevention, and control system for wild animal epidemics, in an effort to achieve a win-win situation between wild animal protection and disease control.

Biophysical models accurately characterize the thermal energetics of a small invasive passerine bird

Effective management of invasive species requires accurate predictions of their invasion potential in different environments. By considering species' physiological tolerances and requirements, biophysical mechanistic models can potentially deliver accurate predictions of where introduced species are likely to establish. Here, we evaluate biophysical model predictions of energy use by comparing them to experimentally obtained energy expenditure (EE) and thermoneutral zones (TNZs) for the common waxbill Estrilda astrild, a small-bodied avian invader. We show that biophysical models accurately predict TNZ and EE and that they perform better than traditional time-energy budget methods. Sensitivity analyses indicate that body temperature, metabolic rate, and feather characteristics were the most influential traits affecting model accuracy. This evaluation of common waxbill energetics represents a crucial step toward improved parameterization of biophysical models, eventually enabling accurate predictions of invasion risk for small (sub)tropical passerines.

Thermoregulatory strategies of songbird nestlings reveal limited capacity for cooling and high risk of dehydration

How the accelerating pace of global warming will affect animal populations depends on the effects of increasing temperature across the life cycle. Developing young are sensitive to environmental challenges, often with life-long consequences, but the risks of climate warming during this period are insufficiently understood. This may be due to limited insight into physiological sensitivity and the temperatures that represent a thermal challenge for young. Here we examined the physiological and behavioural effects of increasing temperatures by measuring metabolic rate, water loss, and heat dissipation behaviours between 25-45 °C in nestlings of a small free-living songbird of temperate SE-Australia, the superb fairy-wren. We found a high and relatively narrow thermoneutral zone from 33.1 to 42.3 °C, with metabolic rate increasing and all nestlings panting above this range. Evaporative water loss sharply increased above 33.5 °C; at the same temperature, nestlings changed their posture (extended their wings) to facilitate passive heat loss. However, at all temperatures measured, water loss was insufficient to dissipate metabolically produced heat, indicating poor cooling capabilities, which persisted even when individuals were panting. While nestlings are relatively tolerant to higher temperatures, with no evidence for hyperthermia at temperatures below 42 °C, they are at a high risk of dehydration even at lower temperatures, with limited ability to mitigate this. Thus, climate warming is likely to elevate the risk dehydration, which is concerning, since it is accompanied by drier conditions.

Planktonic and early-stage biofilm microbiota respond contrastingly to thermal discharge-created seawater warming

Thermal-discharges from power plants highly disturb the biological communities of the receiving water body and understanding their influence is critical, given the relevance to global warming. We employed 16 S rRNA gene sequencing to examine the response of two dominant marine bacterial lifestyles (planktonic and biofilm) against elevated seawater temperature (+5 ℃). Obtained results demonstrated that warming prompted high heterogeneity in diversity and composition of planktonic and biofilm microbiota, albeit both communities responded contrastingly. Alpha diversity revealed that temperature exhibited positive effect on biofilm microbiota and negative effect on planktonic microbiota. The community composition of planktonic microbiota shifted significantly in warming area, with decreased abundances of Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria, and Actinobacteria. Contrastingly, these bacterial groups exhibited opposite trend in biofilm microbiota. Co-occurrence networks of biofilm microbiota displayed higher node diversity and co-presence in warming area. The study concludes that with increasing ocean warming, marine biofilms and biofouling management strategies will be more challenging.

Understanding Organisms Using Ecological Observatory Networks

Human activities are rapidly changing ecosystems around the world. These changes have widespread implications for the preservation of biodiversity, agricultural productivity, prevalence of zoonotic diseases, and sociopolitical conflict. To understand and improve the predictive capacity for these and other biological phenomena, some scientists are now relying on observatory networks, which are often composed of systems of sensors, teams of field researchers, and databases of abiotic and biotic measurements across multiple temporal and spatial scales. One well-known example is NEON, the US-based National Ecological Observatory Network. Although NEON and similar networks have informed studies of population, community, and ecosystem ecology for years, they have been minimally used by organismal biologists. NEON provides organismal biologists, in particular those interested in NEON's focal taxa, with an unprecedented opportunity to study phenomena such as range expansions, disease epidemics, invasive species colonization, macrophysiology, and other biological processes that fundamentally involve organismal variation. Here, we use NEON as an exemplar of the promise of observatory networks for understanding the causes and consequences of morphological, behavioral, molecular, and physiological variation among individual organisms.

Assessing the Potential Distribution of Oxalis latifolia, a Rapidly Spreading Weed, in East Asia under Global Climate Change

Oxalis latifolia, a perennial herbaceous weed, is a highly invasive species that poses a threat to agricultural lands worldwide. East Asia is under a high risk of invasion of O. latifolia under global climate change. To evaluate this risk, we employed maximum entropy modeling considering two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Currently, a small portion (8.02%) of East Asia is within the O. latifolia distribution, with the highest coverages in Chinese Taipei, China, and Japan (95.09%, 9.8%, and 0.24%, respectively). However, our projections indicated that this invasive weed will likely be introduced to South Korea and North Korea between 2041 and 2060 and 2081 and 2100, respectively. The species is expected to cover approximately 9.79% and 23.68% (SSP2-4.5) and 11.60% and 27.41% (SSP5-8.5) of the total land surface in East Asia by these time points, respectively. South Korea and Japan will be particularly susceptible, with O. latifolia potentially invading up to 80.73% of their territory by 2081-2100. Mongolia is projected to remain unaffected. This study underscores the urgent need for effective management strategies and careful planning to prevent the introduction and limit the expansion of O. latifolia in East Asian countries.

Plant traits and associated data from a warming experiment, a seabird colony, and along elevation in Svalbard

The Arctic is warming at a rate four times the global average, while also being exposed to other global environmental changes, resulting in widespread vegetation and ecosystem change. Integrating functional trait-based approaches with multi-level vegetation, ecosystem, and landscape data enables a holistic understanding of the drivers and consequences of these changes. In two High Arctic study systems near Longyearbyen, Svalbard, a 20-year ITEX warming experiment and elevational gradients with and without nutrient input from nesting seabirds, we collected data on vegetation composition and structure, plant functional traits, ecosystem fluxes, multispectral remote sensing, and microclimate. The dataset contains 1,962 plant records and 16,160 trait measurements from 34 vascular plant taxa, for 9 of which these are the first published trait data. By integrating these comprehensive data, we bridge knowledge gaps and expand trait data coverage, including on intraspecific trait variation. These data can offer insights into ecosystem functioning and provide baselines to assess climate and environmental change impacts. Such knowledge is crucial for effective conservation and management in these vulnerable regions.

Impact of climate change on the distribution and predicted habitat suitability of two fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus) in Ethiopia: Implications for conservation

Fruit bats serve as crucial bioindicators, seed dispersers, pollinators, and contributors to food security within ecosystems. However, their population and distribution were threatened by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Understanding the impacts of these pressures through mapping distribution and habitat suitability is crucial for identifying high-priority areas and implementing effective conservation and management plans. We predicted the distribution and extent of habitat suitability for Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus under climate change scenarios using average predictions from four different algorithms to produce an ensemble model. Seasonal precipitation, population index, land-use land cover, vegetation, and the mean temperature of the driest quarter majorly contributed to the predicted habitat suitability for both species. The current predicted sizes of suitable habitats for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus were varied, on average 60,271.4 and 85,176.1 km2, respectively. The change in species range size for R. aegyptiacus showed gains in suitable areas of 24.4% and 22.8% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, for E. labiatus, suitable areas decreased by 0.95% and 2% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. The range size change of suitable areas between 2050 and 2070 for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus shows losses of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The predicted maps indicate that the midlands and highlands of southern and eastern Ethiopia harbor highly suitable areas for both species. In contrast, the areas in the northern and central highlands are fragmented. The current model findings show that climate change and anthropogenic pressures have notable impacts on the geographic ranges of two species. Moreover, the predicted suitable habitats for both species are found both within and outside of their historical ranges, which has important implications for conservation efforts. Our ensemble predictions are vital for identifying high-priority areas for fruit bat species conservation efforts and management to mitigate climate change and anthropogenic pressures.

Prey consumption does not restore hydration state but mitigates the energetic costs of water deprivation in an insectivorous lizard

To cope with limited availability of drinking water in their environment, terrestrial animals have developed numerous behavioral and physiological strategies including maintaining an optimal hydration state through dietary water intake. Recent studies performed in snakes, which are generalist carnivorous reptiles, suggest that the benefits of dietary water intake are negated by hydric costs of digestion. Most lizards are generalist insectivores that can shift their prey types, but firm experimental demonstration of dietary water intake is currently missing in these organisms. Here, we performed an experimental study in the common lizard Zootoca vivipara, a keystone mesopredator from temperate climates exhibiting a great diversity of prey in its mesic habitats, in order to investigate the effects of food consumption and prey type on physiological responses to water deprivation. Our results indicate that common lizards cannot improve their hydration state through prey consumption, irrespective of prey type, suggesting that they are primarily dependent upon drinking water. Yet, high-quality prey consumption reduced the energetic costs of water deprivation, potentially helping lizards to conserve a better body condition during periods of limited water availability. These findings have important implications for understanding the physiological responses of ectotherms to water stress, and highlight the complex interactions between hydration status, energy metabolism and feeding behavior in insectivorous lizards.

Eco-evolution from deep time to contemporary dynamics: The role of timescales and rate modulators

Eco-evolutionary dynamics, or eco-evolution for short, are often thought to involve rapid demography (ecology) and equally rapid heritable phenotypic changes (evolution) leading to novel, emergent system behaviours. We argue that this focus on contemporary dynamics is too narrow: Eco-evolution should be extended, first, beyond pure demography to include all environmental dimensions and, second, to include slow eco-evolution which unfolds over thousands or millions of years. This extension allows us to conceptualise biological systems as occupying a two-dimensional time space along axes that capture the speed of ecology and evolution. Using Hutchinson's analogy: Time is the 'theatre' in which ecology and evolution are two interacting 'players'. Eco-evolutionary systems are therefore dynamic: We identify modulators of ecological and evolutionary rates, like temperature or sensitivity to mutation, which can change the speed of ecology and evolution, and hence impact eco-evolution. Environmental change may synchronise the speed of ecology and evolution via these rate modulators, increasing the occurrence of eco-evolution and emergent system behaviours. This represents substantial challenges for prediction, especially in the context of global change. Our perspective attempts to integrate ecology and evolution across disciplines, from gene-regulatory networks to geomorphology and across timescales, from today to deep time.

Chromosome-level reference genome of stinkwort, Dittrichia graveolens (L.) Greuter: A resource for studies on invasion, range expansion, and evolutionary adaptation under global change

Dittrichia graveolens (L.) Greuter, or stinkwort, is a weedy annual plant within the family Asteraceae. The species is recognized for the rapid expansion of both its native and introduced ranges: in Europe, it has expanded its native distribution northward from the Mediterranean basin by nearly 7 °C latitude since the mid-20th century, while in California and Australia the plant is an invasive weed of concern. Here, we present the first de novo D. graveolens genome assembly (1N = 9 chromosomes), including complete chloroplast (151,013 bp) and partial mitochondrial genomes (22,084 bp), created using Pacific Biosciences HiFi reads and Dovetail Omni-C data. The final primary assembly is 835 Mbp in length, of which 98.1% are represented by 9 scaffolds ranging from 66 to 119 Mbp. The contig N50 is 74.9 Mbp and the scaffold N50 is 96.9 Mbp, which, together with a 98.8% completeness based on the BUSCO embryophyta10 database containing 1,614 orthologs, underscores the high quality of this assembly. This pseudo-molecule-scale genome assembly is a valuable resource for our fundamental understanding of the genomic consequences of range expansion under global change, as well as comparative genomic studies in the Asteraceae.

Responses to saltwater exposure vary across species, populations and life stages in anuran amphibians

To predict the impacts of environmental change on species, we must first understand the factors that limit the present-day ranges of species. Most anuran amphibians cannot survive at elevated salinities, which may drive their distribution in coastal locations. Previous research showed that coastal Hyla cinerea are locally adapted to brackish habitats in North Carolina, USA. Although Hyla squirella and Hyla chrysoscelis both inhabit coastal wetlands nearby, they have not been observed in saline habitats. We take advantage of naturally occurring microgeographic variation in coastal wetland occupancy exhibited by these congeneric tree frog species to explore how salt exposure affects oviposition site choice, hatching success, early tadpole survival, plasma osmolality and tadpole body condition across coastal and inland locations. We observed higher survival among coastal H. cinerea tadpoles than inland H. cinerea, which corroborates previous findings. But contrary to expectations, coastal H. cinerea had lower survival than H. squirella and H. chrysoscelis, indicating that all three species may be able to persist in saline wetlands. We also observed differences in tadpole plasma osmolality across species, locations and salinities, but these differences were not associated with survival rates in salt water. Instead, coastal occupancy may be affected by stage-specific processes like higher probability of total clutch loss as shown by inland H. chrysoscelis or maladaptive egg deposition patterns as shown by inland H. squirella. Although we expected salt water to be the primary filter driving species distributions along a coastal salinity gradient, it is likely that the factors dictating anuran ranges along the coast involve stage-, species- and location-specific processes that are mediated by ecological processes and life history traits.

A genotype × environment experiment reveals contrasting response strategies to drought between populations of a keystone species (Artemisia tridentata; Asteraceae)

Western North America has been experiencing persistent drought exacerbated by climate change for over two decades. This extreme climate event is a clear threat to native plant communities. Artemisia tridentata is a keystone shrub species in western North America and is threatened by climate change, urbanization, and wildfire. A drought Genotype × Environment (G × E) experiment was conducted to assess phenotypic plasticity and differential gene expression in A. tridentata. The G × E experiment was performed on diploid A. tridentata seedlings from two populations (one from Idaho, USA and one from Utah, USA), which experience differing levels of drought stress during the summer months. Photosynthetic data, leaf temperature, and gene expression levels were compared between treatments and populations. The Utah population maintained higher photosynthetic rates and photosynthetic efficiency than the Idaho population under drought stress. The Utah population also exhibited far greater transcriptional plasticity than the Idaho population and expressed genes of response pathways distinct from those of the Idaho population. Populations of A. tridentata differ greatly in their drought response pathways, likely due to differences in response pathways that have evolved under distinct climatic regimes. Epigenetic processes likely contribute to the observed differences between the populations.

Climate-ecosystem modelling made easy: The Land Sites Platform

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) provide a state-of-the-art process-based approach to study the complex interplay between vegetation and its physical environment. For example, they help to predict how terrestrial plants interact with climate, soils, disturbance and competition for resources. We argue that there is untapped potential for the use of DGVMs in ecological and ecophysiological research. One fundamental barrier to realize this potential is that many researchers with relevant expertize (ecology, plant physiology, soil science, etc.) lack access to the technical resources or awareness of the research potential of DGVMs. Here we present the Land Sites Platform (LSP): new software that facilitates single-site simulations with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, an advanced DGVM coupled with the Community Land Model. The LSP includes a Graphical User Interface and an Application Programming Interface, which improve the user experience and lower the technical thresholds for installing these model architectures and setting up model experiments. The software is distributed via version-controlled containers; researchers and students can run simulations directly on their personal computers or servers, with relatively low hardware requirements, and on different operating systems. Version 1.0 of the LSP supports site-level simulations. We provide input data for 20 established geo-ecological observation sites in Norway and workflows to add generic sites from public global datasets. The LSP makes standard model experiments with default data easily achievable (e.g., for educational or introductory purposes) while retaining flexibility for more advanced scientific uses. We further provide tools to visualize the model input and output, including simple examples to relate predictions to local observations. The LSP improves access to land surface and DGVM modelling as a building block of community cyberinfrastructure that may inspire new avenues for mechanistic ecosystem research across disciplines.

Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

Species respond to climate change with range and abundance dynamics. To better explain and predict them, we need a mechanistic understanding of how the underlying demographic processes are shaped by climatic conditions. Here, we aim to infer demography-climate relationships from distribution and abundance data. For this, we developed spatially explicit, process-based models for eight Swiss breeding bird populations. These jointly consider dispersal, population dynamics and the climate-dependence of three demographic processes-juvenile survival, adult survival and fecundity. The models were calibrated to 267 nationwide abundance time series in a Bayesian framework. The fitted models showed moderate to excellent goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power. The most influential climatic predictors for population performance were the mean breeding-season temperature and the total winter precipitation. Contemporary climate change benefitted the population trends of typical mountain birds leading to lower population losses or even slight increases, whereas lowland birds were adversely affected. Our results emphasize that generic process-based models embedded in a robust statistical framework can improve our predictions of range dynamics and may allow disentangling of the underlying processes. For future research, we advocate a stronger integration of experimental and empirical studies in order to gain more precise insights into the mechanisms by which climate affects populations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Groundfish biodiversity change in northeastern Pacific waters under projected warming and deoxygenation

In the coming decades, warming and deoxygenation of marine waters are anticipated to result in shifts in the distribution and abundance of fishes, with consequences for the diversity and composition of fish communities. Here, we combine fisheries-independent trawl survey data spanning the west coast of the USA and Canada with high-resolution regional ocean models to make projections of how 34 groundfish species will be impacted by changes in temperature and oxygen in British Columbia (BC) and Washington. In this region, species that are projected to decrease in occurrence are roughly balanced by those that are projected to increase, resulting in considerable compositional turnover. Many, but not all, species are projected to shift to deeper depths as conditions warm, but low oxygen will limit how deep they can go. Thus, biodiversity will likely decrease in the shallowest waters (less than 100 m), where warming will be greatest, increase at mid-depths (100-600 m) as shallow species shift deeper, and decrease at depths where oxygen is limited (greater than 600 m). These results highlight the critical importance of accounting for the joint role of temperature, oxygen and depth when projecting the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Geometric Morphometric Assessment of Toe Shape in Forest and Urban Lizards Following Hurricane Disturbances

Evidence suggests that hurricanes can influence the evolution of organisms, with phenotypic traits involved in adhesion, such as the toepads of arboreal lizards, being particularly susceptible to natural selection imposed by hurricanes. To investigate this idea, we quantified trait variation before and after Hurricanes Irma and Maria (2017) in forest and urban populations of the Puerto Rican lizard Anolis cristatellus. We found that the hurricanes affected toe morphology differently between forest and urban sites. In particular, toepads of the forefeet were longer and narrower in forest, but wider in urban populations, compared to pre-hurricane measures. Toepads of the hind feet were larger in area following the hurricanes. Fore and rear toes increased in length following the hurricane. There were no changes in the number of lamellae scales or lamellae spacing, but lamellae 6-11 of the forefeet shifted proximally following the hurricane. We also measured clinging performance and toe shape. We found that toepad area and toe lengths were stronger predictors of adhesive forces than toepad shape. Our results highlight an interaction between urbanization and hurricanes, demonstrating the importance to consider how urban species will respond to extreme weather events. Additionally, our different results for fore and rear feet highlight the importance of evaluating both of these traits when measuring the morphological response to hurricanes in arboreal lizards.

Moving beyond heritability in the search for coral adaptive potential

Global environmental change is happening at unprecedented rates. Coral reefs are among the ecosystems most threatened by global change. For wild populations to persist, they must adapt. Knowledge shortfalls about corals' complex ecological and evolutionary dynamics, however, stymie predictions about potential adaptation to future conditions. Here, we review adaptation through the lens of quantitative genetics. We argue that coral adaptation studies can benefit greatly from "wild" quantitative genetic methods, where traits are studied in wild populations undergoing natural selection, genomic relationship matrices can replace breeding experiments, and analyses can be extended to examine genetic constraints among traits. In addition, individuals with advantageous genotypes for anticipated future conditions can be identified. Finally, genomic genotyping supports simultaneous consideration of how genetic diversity is arrayed across geographic and environmental distances, providing greater context for predictions of phenotypic evolution at a metapopulation scale.