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Kawiecki AB, Morrison AC, Barker CM. Spatial and temporal analysis on the impact of ultra-low volume indoor insecticide spraying on Aedes aegypti household density. Parasit Vectors 2024; 17:254. [PMID: 38863023 PMCID: PMC11165869 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-024-06308-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2024] [Accepted: 04/25/2024] [Indexed: 06/13/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Aedes aegypti is the primary mosquito vector for several arboviruses, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses, which cause frequent outbreaks of human disease in tropical and subtropical regions. Control of these outbreaks relies on vector control, commonly in the form of insecticide sprays that target adult female mosquitoes. However, the spatial coverage and frequency of sprays needed to optimize effectiveness are unclear. In this study, we characterize the effect of ultra-low-volume (ULV) indoor spraying of pyrethroid insecticides on Ae. aegypti abundance within households. We also evaluate the effects of spray events during recent time periods or in neighboring households. Improved understanding of the duration and distance of the impact of a spray intervention on Ae. aegypti populations can inform vector control interventions, in addition to modeling efforts that contrast vector control strategies. METHODS This project analyzes data from two large-scale experiments that involved six cycles of indoor pyrethroid spray applications in 2 years in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We developed spatial multi-level models to disentangle the reduction in Ae. aegypti abundance that resulted from (i) recent ULV treatment within households and (ii) ULV treatment of adjacent or nearby households. We compared fits of models across a range of candidate weighting schemes for the spray effect, based on different temporal and spatial decay functions to understand lagged ULV effects. RESULTS Our results suggested that the reduction of Ae. aegypti in a household was mainly due to spray events occurring within the same household, with no additional effect of sprays that occurred in neighboring households. Effectiveness of a spray intervention should be measured based on time since the most recent spray event, as we found no cumulative effect of sequential sprays. Based on our model, we estimated the spray effect is reduced by 50% approximately 28 days after the spray event. CONCLUSIONS The reduction of Ae. aegypti in a household was mainly determined by the number of days since the last spray intervention in that same household, highlighting the importance of spray coverage in high-risk areas with a spray frequency determined by local viral transmission dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Christopher M Barker
- University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
- Pacific Southwest Center of Excellence in Vector-Borne Diseases, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
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Cañari-Casaño JL, Paz-Soldan VA, Lescano AG, Morrison AC. Circulation of DENV-2 serotype associated with increased risk of cumulative incidence of severe dengue and dengue with warning signs: A 16-year retrospective study in Peru. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.05.02.24306735. [PMID: 38746174 PMCID: PMC11092699 DOI: 10.1101/2024.05.02.24306735] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/16/2024]
Abstract
Background Dengue poses a significant public health challenge in Peru and other endemic countries worldwide. While severe dengue is known to be associated with secondary infection at the individual level, the factors that elevate the risk of severe dengue at the population level remain poorly understood. This study leverages over 16 years of secondary data from a Peruvian dengue surveillance system to assess which type of serotype-specific circulation is associated with an increased risk of cumulative incidence of severe dengue or dengue with warning signs (SD-DWS). Methodology This is a retrospective analysis of secondary data using the Peruvian Ministry of Health databases of dengue cases and serotyping. A mixed negative binomial regression model for repeated measures over time was employed to estimate the association between the cumulative incidence of reported SD-DWS cases per 100,000 inhabitants and serotype-specific circulation. Crude and adjusted incidence ratios (IRR) were estimated. Principal findings The study analyzed data from 2007 to 2022 across 19 regions of Peru, totaling 304 region-years. Data from nearly 58,000 serotype identification reports and 57,966 cases of SD-DWS were analyzed. The regions with most cumulative incidence of SD-DWS per 100,000 inhabitants during 2007 to 2022 were Madre de Dios (3859), Loreto (1518), Ucayali (1492), Tumbes (1335), and Piura (722). The adjusted model revealed a higher risk of cumulative incidence of SD-DWS when there was specific circulation of DENV-123 (aIRR 7.57 CI 4.00 - 14.31), DENV-12 (aIRR 4.66 CI 2.57 - 8.44), DENV-23 (aIRR 3.55 CI 1.75 - 7.21), or when there was circulation of DENV-2 alone or co-circulating with other serotypes (aIRR 27.7 CI 15.46 -49.63). Conclusions Circulation of DENV-2 was associated with higher average incidence rate ratios of SD-DWS. Author summary We investigated how the circulation of different dengue virus (DENV) serotypes are associated with the incidence of severe dengue and dengue with warning signs in Peru, a country where dengue is endemic. We analyzed 16 years of data from the dengue surveillance system, including nearly 58,000 serotype identification reports and 57,966 cases of severe dengue and dengue with warning signs. We found that regions with specific circulation of DENV-2, either alone or in combination with other serotypes, had higher incidence rates of severe dengue and dengue with warning signs. Our findings highlight the importance of monitoring DENV serotype circulation to manage and prevent severe dengue, especially in regions where DENV-2 is prevalent.
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Dengue and zika seropositivity, burden, endemicity, and cocirculation antibodies in Nigeria. Ann Med 2023; 55:652-662. [PMID: 37074313 PMCID: PMC9970210 DOI: 10.1080/07853890.2023.2175903] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/24/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Mosquito-borne infections are of global health concern because of their rapid spread and upsurge, which creates a risk for coinfections. DENV and ZIKV are transmitted by Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus and are prevalent in Nigeria and neighbouring countries. However, their seroprevalence, burden, hidden endemicity and possible cocirculation are poorly understood in Nigeria. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional study of 871 participants from three regions of Nigeria. All serum samples were analysed using malaria RDT and the immunoblot molecular diagnostic assay recomLine Tropical Fever for the presence of arboviral antibody serological marker IgG (Mikrogen Diagnostik, Neuried, Germany) with DENV and ZIKV Nonstructural protein 1 (NS 1), DENV and ZIKV Equad (variant of the envelope protein with designated mutations to increase specificity), according to the manufacturer's instructions. RESULTS The overall IgG antibody seropositivity against DENV-flavivirus was 44.7% (389/871); 95% CI (41.41-47.99), while ZIKV-flavivirus was 19.2% (167/871); 95% CI (0.16-0.21), and DENV-ZIKV-flavivirus cocirculation antibody seropositivity was 6.2%5 (54/871); 95% CI (0.6-0.7) in the three study regions of Nigeria. The study cohort presented similar clinical signs and symptoms of flaviviruses (DENV and ZIKV) in all three study regions. CONCLUSION This study highlighted an unexpectedly high antibody seropositivity, burden, hidden endemicity, and regional spread of mono- and co-circulating flaviviruses (DENV and ZIKV) in Nigeria.Key messagesDengue flavivirus sero-cross-reactivity drives antibody-dependent enhancement of ZIKV infection.Both viruses share common hosts (humans) and vectors (primarily Aedes aegypti), and are thus influenced by similar biological, ecological, and economic factors, resulting in epidemiological synergy.Additionally, the actual burden in epidemic and interepidemic periods is grossly or chronically unknown and underreported. Despite this trend and the potential public health threat, there are no reliable data, and little is known about these arboviral co-circulation infections.
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Peña-García VH, Luvall JC, Christofferson RC. Arbovirus Transmission Predictions Are Affected by Both Temperature Data Source and Modeling Methodologies across Cities in Colombia. Microorganisms 2023; 11:1249. [PMID: 37317223 DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms11051249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2023] [Revised: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Weather variables has been described as major drivers of vector proliferation and arbovirus transmission. Among them, temperature has consistently been found to be impactful in transmission dynamics, and models that incorporate temperature have been widely used to evaluate and forecast transmission or arboviruses like dengue, zika, or chikungunya virus. Further, there is growing evidence of the importance of micro-environmental temperatures in driving transmission of Aedes aegypti-borne viruses, as these mosquitoes tend to live within domiciles. Yet there is still a considerable gap in our understanding of how accounting for micro-environmental temperatures in models varies from the use of other widely-used, macro-level temperature measures. This effort combines field-collected data of both indoor and outdoor household associated temperatures and weather station temperature data from three Colombian cities to describe the relationship between the measures representing temperature at the micro- and macro-levels. These data indicate that weather station data may not accurately capture the temperature profiles of indoor micro-environments. However, using these data sources, the basic reproductive number for arboviruses was calculated by means of three modeling efforts to investigate whether temperature measure differences translated to differential transmission predictions. Across all three cities, it was determined that the modeling method was more often impactful rather than the temperature data-source, though no consistent pattern was immediately clear. This suggests that temperature data sources and modeling methods are important for precision in arbovirus transmission predictions, and more studies are needed to parse out this complex interaction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Víctor Hugo Peña-García
- Programa de Estudio y Control de Enfermedades Tropicales (PECET), Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín 50010, Colombia
| | - Jeffrey C Luvall
- Marshall Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA), Huntsville, AL 35824, USA
| | - Rebecca C Christofferson
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
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Peñataro Yori P, Paredes Olórtegui M, Schiaffino F, Colston JM, Pinedo Vasquez T, Garcia Bardales PF, Shapiama Lopez V, Zegarra Paredes LF, Perez K, Curico G, Flynn T, Zhang J, Ramal Asayag C, Meza Sanchez G, Silva Delgado H, Casapia Morales M, Casanova W, Jiu B, Oberhelman R, Munayco Escate C, Silver R, Henao O, Cooper KK, Liu J, Houpt ER, Kosek MN. Etiology of acute febrile illness in the peruvian amazon as determined by modular formatted quantitative PCR: a protocol for RIVERA, a health facility-based case-control study. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:674. [PMID: 37041550 PMCID: PMC10088183 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-15619-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2023] [Accepted: 04/06/2023] [Indexed: 04/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The study of the etiology of acute febrile illness (AFI) has historically been designed as a prevalence of pathogens detected from a case series. This strategy has an inherent unrealistic assumption that all pathogen detection allows for causal attribution, despite known asymptomatic carriage of the principal causes of acute febrile illness in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We designed a semi-quantitative PCR in a modular format to detect bloodborne agents of acute febrile illness that encompassed common etiologies of AFI in the region, etiologies of recent epidemics, etiologies that require an immediate public health response and additional pathogens of unknown endemicity. We then designed a study that would delineate background levels of transmission in the community in the absence of symptoms to provide corrected estimates of attribution for the principal determinants of AFI. METHODS A case-control study of acute febrile illness in patients ten years or older seeking health care in Iquitos, Loreto, Peru, was planned. Upon enrollment, we will obtain blood, saliva, and mid-turbinate nasal swabs at enrollment with a follow-up visit on day 21-28 following enrollment to attain vital status and convalescent saliva and blood samples, as well as a questionnaire including clinical, socio-demographic, occupational, travel, and animal contact information for each participant. Whole blood samples are to be simultaneously tested for 32 pathogens using TaqMan array cards. Mid-turbinate samples will be tested for SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A and Influenza B. Conditional logistic regression models will be fitted treating case/control status as the outcome and with pathogen-specific sample positivity as predictors to attain estimates of attributable pathogen fractions for AFI. DISCUSSION The modular PCR platforms will allow for reporting of all primary results of respiratory samples within 72 h and blood samples within one week, allowing for results to influence local medical practice and enable timely public health responses. The inclusion of controls will allow for a more accurate estimate of the importance of specific prevalent pathogens as a cause of acute illness. STUDY REGISTRATION Project 1791, Registro de Proyectos de Investigación en Salud Pública (PRISA), Instituto Nacional de Salud, Perú.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pablo Peñataro Yori
- Division of Infectious Disease and International Health, School of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Asociación Benefica PRISMA, Iquitos, Loreto, Peru
| | | | - Francesca Schiaffino
- Division of Infectious Disease and International Health, School of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Josh M Colston
- Division of Infectious Disease and International Health, School of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Karin Perez
- Asociación Benefica PRISMA, Iquitos, Loreto, Peru
| | | | - Thomas Flynn
- Division of Infectious Disease and International Health, School of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | - Jixian Zhang
- Division of Infectious Disease and International Health, School of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | - Cesar Ramal Asayag
- Universidad Nacional de La Amazonia Peruana, Loreto, Peru
- Hospital Regional de Loreto, Iquitos, Loreto, Peru
| | - Graciela Meza Sanchez
- Universidad Nacional de La Amazonia Peruana, Loreto, Peru
- Direccion Regional de Salud, Loreto, Peru
| | | | - Martin Casapia Morales
- Universidad Nacional de La Amazonia Peruana, Loreto, Peru
- Hospital Regional de Loreto, Iquitos, Loreto, Peru
| | - Wilma Casanova
- Universidad Nacional de La Amazonia Peruana, Loreto, Peru
| | - Bruce Jiu
- Laboratorio de Referencia en Salud Publica de la Direccion Regional de Salud- Diresa, Loreto, Peru
| | - Richard Oberhelman
- Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Cesar Munayco Escate
- Centro Nacional de Epidemiologia, Prevencion, y Control de Enfermedades, Ministerio de Salud de Peru, Jesus Maria, Peru
| | - Rachel Silver
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Olga Henao
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Kerry K Cooper
- School of Animal and Comparative Biomedical Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Jie Liu
- School of Public Health, Qingdao University, Qingdao, China
| | - Eric R Houpt
- Division of Infectious Disease and International Health, School of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | - Margaret N Kosek
- Division of Infectious Disease and International Health, School of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
- Asociación Benefica PRISMA, Iquitos, Loreto, Peru.
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, Public Health Sciences, 345 Crispell Dr, Rm 2525, Charlottesville, USA.
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Peñataro Yori P, Paredes Olórtegui M, Schiaffino F, Perez K, Curico Huansi G, Flynn T, Zhang J, Ramal Asayag C, Meza Sanchez G, Silva Delgado H, Casapia Morales M, Casanova W, Jiu B, Munayco Escate C, Silver R, Henao O, Cooper KK, Liu J, Houpt E, Kosek MN, Colston JM, Oberhelman R, Pinedo Vasquez T, Garcia Bardales PF, Shapiama Lopez WV, Zegarra Paredes LF. Etiology of Acute Febrile Illness in the Peruvian Amazon as determined by modular formatted quantitative PCR: A Protocol for RIVERA, a Health Facility-Based Case-Control Study. RESEARCH SQUARE 2023:rs.3.rs-2635774. [PMID: 37034707 PMCID: PMC10081374 DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2635774/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Background The study of the etiology of acute febrile illness (AFI) has historically been designed as a prevalence of pathogens detected from a case series. This strategy has an inherent unrealistic assumption that all pathogen detection allows for causal attribution, despite known asymptomatic carriage of the principal causes of acute febrile illness in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We designed a semi-quantitative PCR in a modular format to detect bloodborne agents of acute febrile illness that encompassed common etiologies of AFI in the region, etiologies of recent epidemics, etiologies that require an immediate public health response and additional pathogens of unknown endemicity. We then designed a study that would delineate background levels of transmission in the community in the absence of symptoms to provide corrected estimates of attribution for the principal determinants of AFI. Methods A case-control study of acute febrile illness in patients ten years or older seeking health care in Iquitos, Loreto, Peru, was planned. Upon enrollment, we will obtain blood, saliva, and mid-turbinate nasal swabs at enrollment with a follow-up visit on day 21-28 following enrollment to attain vital status and convalescent saliva and blood samples, as well as a questionnaire including clinical, socio-demographic, occupational, travel, and animal contact information for each participant. Whole blood samples are to be simultaneously tested for 32 pathogens using TaqMan array cards. Mid-turbinate samples will be tested for SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A and Influenza B. Conditional logistic regression models will be fitted treating case/control status as the outcome and with pathogen-specific sample positivity as predictors to attain estimates of attributable pathogen fractions for AFI. Discussion The modular PCR platforms will allow for reporting of all primary results of respiratory samples within 72 hours and blood samples within one week, allowing for results to influence local medical practice and enable timely public health responses. The inclusion of controls will allow for a more accurate estimate of the importance of specific, prevalent pathogens as a cause of acute illness. Study Registration Project 1791, Registro de Proyectos de Investigación en Salud Pública (PRISA), Instituto Nacional de Salud, Perú.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Cesar Munayco Escate
- Centro de Epidemiologia, Prevencion, y Control de Enfermedades, Ministerio de Salud
| | | | - Olga Henao
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
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Watts DM, Russell KL, Wooster MT, Sharp TW, Morrison AC, Kochel TJ, Bautista CT, Block K, Guevara C, Aguilar P, Palermo PM, Calampa C, Porter KR, Hayes CG, Weaver SC, de Rosa AT, Vinetz JM, Shope RE, Gotuzzo E, Guzman H, Tesh RB. Etiologies of Acute Undifferentiated Febrile Illnesses in and near Iquitos from 1993 to 1999 in the Amazon River Basin of Peru. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2022; 107:1114-1128. [PMID: 36162442 PMCID: PMC9709010 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.22-0259] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
The objective of this study was to determine the etiology of febrile illnesses among patients from October 1, 1993 through September 30, 1999, in the urban community of Iquitos in the Amazon River Basin of Peru. Epidemiological and clinical data as well as blood samples were obtained from consenting patients at hospitals, health clinics and private residences. Samples were tested for arboviruses in cell cultures and for IgM and IgG antibodies by ELISA. Blood smears were examined for malaria, and sera were tested for antibodies to Leptospira spp. by ELISA and microscopic agglutination. Among 6,607 febrile patients studied, dengue viruses caused 14.6% of the cases, and Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus caused 2.5%, Oropouche virus 1.0%, Mayaro virus 0.4%, and other arboviruses caused 0.2% of the cases. Also, 22.9% of 4,844 patients tested were positive for malaria, and of 400 samples tested, 9% had evidence of acute leptospirosis. Although the study was not designed to assess the importance of these pathogens as a cause of human morbidity in the total population, these results indicate that arboviruses, leptospirosis, and malaria were the cause of approximately 50% of the febrile cases. Although the arboviruses that were diagnosed can produce asymptomatic infections, our findings increased the overall understanding of the relative health burden of these infections, as well as baseline knowledge needed for designing and implementing further studies to better assess the health impact and threat of these pathogens in the Amazon Basin of Peru.
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Affiliation(s)
- Douglas M. Watts
- U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima, Peru;,Address correspondence to Douglas M. Watts, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Texas at El Paso, 500 W. University Ave., El Paso, TX 79968. E-mail:
| | | | | | | | - Amy C. Morrison
- University of California, Davis School of Veterinary Medicine Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, Davis, California
| | | | | | - Karla Block
- U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima, Peru
| | | | - Patricia Aguilar
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas
| | | | - Carlos Calampa
- Peruvian Ministry of Health, Loreto Health Subregion, Iquitos, Peru
| | | | | | - Scott C. Weaver
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas
| | - Amelia Travassos de Rosa
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas
| | - Joseph M. Vinetz
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas
| | - Robert E. Shope
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas
| | - Eduardo Gotuzzo
- Department of Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Hilda Guzman
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas
| | - Robert B. Tesh
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas
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Sasmono RT, Santoso MS. Movement dynamics: reduced dengue cases during the COVID-19 pandemic. THE LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2022; 22:570-571. [PMID: 35247322 PMCID: PMC8890753 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00062-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2022] [Revised: 01/28/2022] [Accepted: 01/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Dengue virus infection modifies mosquito blood-feeding behavior to increase transmission to the host. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:2117589119. [PMID: 35012987 PMCID: PMC8785958 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2117589119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/23/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Because dengue viruses are spread by mosquitoes during biting, transmission capacity depends on mosquito-biting behavior. For this reason, it is critical to understand how infection in mosquitoes influences biting. To answer this question, we deployed a multidisciplinary approach including high-resolution, multivariate biting behavior monitoring on mice, in vivo transmission assay, and mathematical modeling. We demonstrated that infected mosquitoes are more attracted to mice and bite more often to get the same amount of blood as uninfected mosquitoes. While the effect of increased attraction to host on transmission capacity is trivial, we showed that increased number of bites results in successive transmission. Eventually, we calculated that the infection-induced behavior changes tripled transmission capacity of mosquitoes. Mosquito blood-feeding behavior is a key determinant of the epidemiology of dengue viruses (DENV), the most-prevalent mosquito-borne viruses. However, despite its importance, how DENV infection influences mosquito blood-feeding and, consequently, transmission remains unclear. Here, we developed a high-resolution, video-based assay to observe the blood-feeding behavior of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes on mice. We then applied multivariate analysis on the high-throughput, unbiased data generated from the assay to ordinate behavioral parameters into complex behaviors. We showed that DENV infection increases mosquito attraction to the host and hinders its biting efficiency, the latter resulting in the infected mosquitoes biting more to reach similar blood repletion as uninfected mosquitoes. To examine how increased biting influences DENV transmission to the host, we established an in vivo transmission model with immuno-competent mice and demonstrated that successive short probes result in multiple transmissions. Finally, to determine how DENV-induced alterations of host-seeking and biting behaviors influence dengue epidemiology, we integrated the behavioral data within a mathematical model. We calculated that the number of infected hosts per infected mosquito, as determined by the reproduction rate, tripled when mosquito behavior was influenced by DENV infection. Taken together, this multidisciplinary study details how DENV infection modulates mosquito blood-feeding behavior to increase vector capacity, proportionally aggravating DENV epidemiology. By elucidating the contribution of mosquito behavioral alterations on DENV transmission to the host, these results will inform epidemiological modeling to tailor improved interventions against dengue.
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OUP accepted manuscript. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2022; 116:900-909. [DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/trac001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2021] [Revised: 12/11/2021] [Accepted: 01/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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Brady OJ, Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Jafari Y, Loock MV, Herrera-Taracena G, Menten J, Edmunds WJ, Sim S, Ng LC, Hué S, Hibberd ML. Case-area targeted interventions (CATI) for reactive dengue control: Modelling effectiveness of vector control and prophylactic drugs in Singapore. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009562. [PMID: 34379641 PMCID: PMC8357181 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009562] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2020] [Accepted: 06/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Targeting interventions to areas that have recently experienced cases of disease is one strategy to contain outbreaks of infectious disease. Such case-area targeted interventions (CATI) have become an increasingly popular approach for dengue control but there is little evidence to suggest how precisely targeted or how recent cases need to be, to mount an effective response. The growing interest in the development of prophylactic and therapeutic drugs for dengue has also given new relevance for CATI strategies to interrupt transmission or deliver early treatment. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Here we develop a patch-based mathematical model of spatial dengue spread and fit it to spatiotemporal datasets from Singapore. Simulations from this model suggest CATI strategies could be effective, particularly if used in lower density areas. To maximise effectiveness, increasing the size of the radius around an index case should be prioritised even if it results in delays in the intervention being applied. This is partially because large intervention radii ensure individuals receive multiple and regular rounds of drug dosing or vector control, and thus boost overall coverage. Given equivalent efficacy, CATIs using prophylactic drugs are predicted to be more effective than adult mosquito-killing vector control methods and may even offer the possibility of interrupting individual chains of transmission if rapidly deployed. CATI strategies quickly lose their effectiveness if baseline transmission increases or case detection rates fall. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE These results suggest CATI strategies can play an important role in dengue control but are likely to be most relevant for low transmission areas where high coverage of other non-reactive interventions already exists. Controlled field trials are needed to assess the field efficacy and practical constraints of large operational CATI strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oliver J. Brady
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Adam J. Kucharski
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sebastian Funk
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Yalda Jafari
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Marnix Van Loock
- Janssen Global Public Health, Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Guillermo Herrera-Taracena
- Janssen Global Public Health, Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Horsham, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Joris Menten
- Quantitative Sciences, Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - W. John Edmunds
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Shuzhen Sim
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Lee-Ching Ng
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Stéphane Hué
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Martin L. Hibberd
- Department of Infection Biology, Faculty of Infectious Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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12
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Thiruchelvam L, Dass SC, Asirvadam VS, Daud H, Gill BS. Determine neighboring region spatial effect on dengue cases using ensemble ARIMA models. Sci Rep 2021; 11:5873. [PMID: 33712664 PMCID: PMC7955078 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-84176-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2020] [Accepted: 02/11/2021] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
The state of Selangor, in Malaysia consist of urban and peri-urban centres with good transportation system, and suitable temperature levels with high precipitations and humidity which make the state ideal for high number of dengue cases, annually. This study investigates if districts within the Selangor state do influence each other in determining pattern of dengue cases. Study compares two different models; the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Ensemble ARIMA models, using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) measurement to gauge their performance tools. ARIMA model is developed using the epidemiological data of dengue cases, whereas ensemble ARIMA incorporates the neighbouring regions' dengue models as the exogenous variable (X), into traditional ARIMA model. Ensemble ARIMA models have better model fit compared to the basic ARIMA models by incorporating neighbuoring effects of seven districts which made of state of Selangor. The AIC and BIC values of ensemble ARIMA models to be smaller compared to traditional ARIMA counterpart models. Thus, study concludes that pattern of dengue cases for a district is subject to spatial effects of its neighbouring districts and number of dengue cases in the surrounding areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Loshini Thiruchelvam
- Insititute of Autonomous Systems, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Seri Iskandar, Perak, Malaysia
| | - Sarat Chandra Dass
- School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University Malaysia, Putrajaya, Malaysia
| | - Vijanth Sagayan Asirvadam
- Department of Electric and Electronic Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Seri Iskandar, Perak, Malaysia.
| | - Hanita Daud
- Department of Fundamental and Applied Sciences, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Seri Iskandar, Perak, Malaysia
| | - Balvinder Singh Gill
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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13
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Emeribe AU, Abdullahi IN, Isong IK, Emeribe AO, Nwofe JO, Shuaib BI, Gwarzo AM, Usman Y, Sadi M, Umeozuru CM, Dangana A, Egenti BN, Mallam MAB, Emelonye AU, Aminu MS, Yahaya H, Oyewusi S. Dengue Virus is Hyperendemic in Nigeria from 2009 to 2020: A Contemporary Systematic Review. Infect Chemother 2021; 53:284-299. [PMID: 34216122 PMCID: PMC8258289 DOI: 10.3947/ic.2020.0142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2021] [Accepted: 05/31/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Backround Data on Dengue virus (DENV) infection prevalence, geographic distribution and risk factors are necessary to direct appropriate utilization of existing and emerging control strategies. This study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence, risk factors of DENV infection and the circulating serotypes within Nigeria from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2020. Materials and methods Twenty-one studies out of 2,215 available articles were eligible and included for this systematic review. Relevant articles were searched, screened and included in this study according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria. The risk of bias in primary studies was assessed by Cochrane's method. Heterogeneity of pooled prevalence was calculated using the chi-square test on Cochrane's Q statistic, which was quantified by I-square values. The random-effects analyses of proportions were used to determine the pooled prevalence of DENV antibodies, antigen and RNA from eligible studies. Results Of these, 3 studies reported co-circulation of all the 4 serotypes, while 2 separately reported co-circulation of DENV-1 &2 and DENV-1 to -3. All the antibody-based studies had significantly high heterogeneity (I2 >90%, P <0.05), while the NS1 and PCR-based studies had low heterogeneity (I2 <25%, P >0.05). The pooled prevalence of DENV IgM, IgG, RNA, NS1 and neutralizing antibodies were 16.8%, 34.7%, 7.7%, 7.7% and 0.7%, respectively. South-east Nigeria had the highest pooled DENV-IgG seropositivity, 77.1%. Marital status, gender, educational level and occupation status, the proximity of residence to refuse dumpsite, frequent use of trousers and long sleeve shirts were significantly associated with DENV IgG seropositivity (P <0.05). Conclusion Based on these findings, it can be inferred that Nigeria is hyperendemic for Dengue fever and needs concerted efforts to control its spread within and outside the country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anthony Uchenna Emeribe
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Faculty of Allied Medical Sciences, University of Calabar, Calabar, Nigeria
| | - Idris Nasir Abdullahi
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Faculty of Allied Health Sciences, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria.
| | - Idongesit Kokoabasi Isong
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Faculty of Allied Medical Sciences, University of Calabar, Calabar, Nigeria
| | - Anthony Ogbonna Emeribe
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Faculty of Allied Medical Sciences, University of Calabar, Calabar, Nigeria
| | | | - Buhari Isa Shuaib
- Antiretroviral Therapy Laboratory, Ahmadu Bello University Teaching hospital, Zaria, Nigeria
| | | | - Yahaya Usman
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Faculty of Allied Health Sciences, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
| | - Madjid Sadi
- Institute of Veterinary Sciences, University of Saad Dahlab Blida1, Blida, Algeria.,Laboratory of Biotechnology Related to Animals Reproduction, Blida, Algeria
| | - Chikodi Modesta Umeozuru
- Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme, African Field Epidemiology Network, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Amos Dangana
- Department of Medical Laboratory Services, University of Abuja Teaching hospital, Gwagwalada, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Bibiana Nonye Egenti
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Abuja, Gwagalada, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Mala Alhaji Baba Mallam
- Department of Nursing Science, Maryam Abacha American university of Niger, Maradi, Niger Republic
| | - Abigail Uchenna Emelonye
- Department of Nursing Science, Maryam Abacha American university of Niger, Maradi, Niger Republic
| | - Maijiddah Saidu Aminu
- Department of Nursing Science, Maryam Abacha American university of Niger, Maradi, Niger Republic
| | - Hadiza Yahaya
- Department of Nursing Science, Maryam Abacha American university of Niger, Maradi, Niger Republic
| | - Silifat Oyewusi
- Department of Nursing Science, Maryam Abacha American university of Niger, Maradi, Niger Republic
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14
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Lenhart A, Morrison AC, Paz-Soldan VA, Forshey BM, Cordova-Lopez JJ, Astete H, Elder JP, Sihuincha M, Gotlieb EE, Halsey ES, Kochel TJ, Scott TW, Alexander N, McCall PJ. The impact of insecticide treated curtains on dengue virus transmission: A cluster randomized trial in Iquitos, Peru. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008097. [PMID: 32275653 PMCID: PMC7176142 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008097] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2019] [Revised: 04/22/2020] [Accepted: 01/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue is one of the most important vector-borne diseases, resulting in an estimated hundreds of millions of infections annually throughout the tropics. Control of dengue is heavily dependent upon control of its primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. Innovative interventions that are effective at targeting the adult stage of the mosquito are needed to increase the options for effective control. The use of insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) has previously been shown to significantly reduce the abundance of Ae. aegypti in and around homes, but the impact of ITCs on dengue virus (DENV) transmission has not been rigorously quantified. A parallel arm cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted in Iquitos, Peru to quantify the impact of ITCs on DENV seroconversion as measured through plaque-reduction neutralization tests. Seroconversion data showed that individuals living in the clusters that received ITCs were at greater risk to seroconverting to DENV, with an average seroconversion rate of 50.6 per 100 person-years (PY) (CI: 29.9–71.9), while those in the control arm had an average seroconversion rate of 37.4 per 100 PY (CI: 15.2–51.7). ITCs lost their insecticidal efficacy within 6 months of deployment, necessitating re-treatment with insecticide. Entomological indicators did not show statistically significant differences between ITC and non-ITC clusters. It’s unclear how the lack of protective efficacy reported here is attributable to simple failure of the intervention to protect against Ae. aegypti bites, or the presence of a faulty intervention during much of the follow-up period. The higher risk of dengue seroconversion that was detected in the ITC clusters may have arisen due to a false sense of security that inadvertently led to less routine protective behaviors on the part of households that received the ITCs. Our study provides important lessons learned for conducting cluster randomized trials for vector control interventions against Aedes-transmitted virus infections. Dengue is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases affecting humans, resulting in an estimated hundreds of millions of infections annually throughout the tropics. To control dengue, most public health programs use a variety of methods to kill the primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. Water holding containers that harbor larvae (and other immature stages) are treated or eliminated. During emergencies, large insecticide spray campaigns are deployed to kill infected adult mosquitoes. Innovative interventions that are effective at targeting adult mosquitoes in sustainable ways are needed to increase the options for control of dengue and other Aedes borne virus diseases. The use of insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) has previously been shown to significantly reduce Ae. aegypti numbers in and around homes, but the impact of ITCs on dengue virus (DENV) transmission has not previously been quantified. Using a rigorous study design in which 10 clusters (~90 houses per cluster) were provided multiple ITCs to place in their homes was compared to 10 clusters of homes without ITCs. Assignment of which clusters received ITCs was randomized. Blood samples were obtained at 9-month intervals from residents living in all the clusters, so that people with serological evidence of a DENV infection could be identified by comparing paired samples. Seroconversion data showed that individuals living in the clusters that received ITCs were at greater risk to DENV seroconverting, with an average seroconversion rate of 50.6 per 100 person-years (PY) (CI: 29.9–71.9). Conversely, those in the control arm had an average seroconversion rate of 37.4 per 100 PY (CI: 15.2–51.7). ITCs lost their insecticidal efficacy within 6 months of deployment, necessitating re-treatment with insecticide. Ae. aegypti populations did not show statistically significant differences between ITC and non-ITC clusters. The reason for higher transmission in the ITC treated clusters could be attributable to failure of the curtains (loss of efficacy) and/or that the curtains were not sufficiently effective at protecting against mosquito bites. The higher risk of DENV seroconversion in ITC clusters may be due to a false sense of security that inadvertently led to less routine protective behaviors on the part of households that received the ITC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Audrey Lenhart
- Vector Biology Department, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Amy C. Morrison
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
- Department of Virology, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit-6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
- * E-mail:
| | - Valerie A. Paz-Soldan
- Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America
- Facultad de Salud Pública y Administración, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Brett M. Forshey
- Department of Virology, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit-6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
| | - Jhonny J. Cordova-Lopez
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Helvio Astete
- Department of Virology, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit-6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
| | - John P. Elder
- San Diego State University, San Diego, California, United States of America
| | - Moises Sihuincha
- Director, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital de Apoyo Iquitos, Peru
| | - Esther E. Gotlieb
- Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Eric S. Halsey
- Department of Virology, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit-6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
| | - Tadeusz J. Kochel
- Department of Virology, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit-6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
| | - Thomas W. Scott
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Neal Alexander
- MRC Tropical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Philip J. McCall
- Vector Biology Department, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
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15
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Cavany SM, España G, Lloyd AL, Waller LA, Kitron U, Astete H, Elson WH, Vazquez-Prokopec GM, Scott TW, Morrison AC, Reiner Jr. RC, Perkins TA. Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and targeted indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response. PLoS Comput Biol 2020; 16:e1007743. [PMID: 32310958 PMCID: PMC7200023 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007743] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2019] [Revised: 05/05/2020] [Accepted: 02/24/2020] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Recent years have seen rising incidence of dengue and large outbreaks of Zika and chikungunya, which are all caused by viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In most settings, the primary intervention against Aedes-transmitted viruses is vector control, such as indoor, ultra-low volume (ULV) spraying. Targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) has the potential to more effectively impact Aedes-borne diseases, but its implementation requires careful planning and evaluation. The optimal time to deploy these interventions and their relative epidemiological effects are, however, not well understood. We used an agent-based model of dengue virus transmission calibrated to data from Iquitos, Peru to assess the epidemiological effects of these interventions under differing strategies for deploying them. Specifically, we compared strategies where spray application was initiated when incidence rose above a threshold based on incidence in recent years to strategies where spraying occurred at the same time(s) each year. In the absence of spraying, the model predicted 361,000 infections [inter-quartile range (IQR): 347,000-383,000] in the period 2000-2010. The ULV strategy with the fewest median infections was spraying twice yearly, in March and October, which led to a median of 172,000 infections [IQR: 158,000-183,000], a 52% reduction from baseline. Compared to spraying once yearly in September, the best threshold-based strategy utilizing ULV had fewer median infections (254,000 vs. 261,000), but required more spraying (351 vs. 274 days). For TIRS, the best strategy was threshold-based, which led to the fewest infections of all strategies tested (9,900; [IQR: 8,720-11,400], a 94% reduction), and required fewer days spraying than the equivalent ULV strategy (280). Although spraying twice each year is likely to avert the most infections, our results indicate that a threshold-based strategy can become an alternative to better balance the translation of spraying effort into impact, particularly if used with a residual insecticide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean M. Cavany
- Department of Biological Sciences & Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Guido España
- Department of Biological Sciences & Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Alun L. Lloyd
- Department of Mathematics & Biomathematics Graduate Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Lance A. Waller
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Uriel Kitron
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | | | - William H. Elson
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | | | - Thomas W. Scott
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Amy C. Morrison
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Robert C. Reiner Jr.
- Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - T. Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences & Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
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16
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Teissier Y, Paul R, Aubry M, Rodo X, Dommar C, Salje H, Sakuntabhai A, Cazelles B, Cao-Lormeau VM. Long-term persistence of monotypic dengue transmission in small size isolated populations, French Polynesia, 1978-2014. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008110. [PMID: 32142511 PMCID: PMC7080275 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2019] [Revised: 03/18/2020] [Accepted: 02/02/2020] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding the transition of epidemic to endemic dengue transmission remains a challenge in regions where serotypes co-circulate and there is extensive human mobility. French Polynesia, an isolated group of 117 islands of which 72 are inhabited, distributed among five geographically separated subdivisions, has recorded mono-serotype epidemics since 1944, with long inter-epidemic periods of circulation. Laboratory confirmed cases have been recorded since 1978, enabling exploration of dengue epidemiology under monotypic conditions in an isolated, spatially structured geographical location. A database was constructed of confirmed dengue cases, geolocated to island for a 35-year period. Statistical analyses of viral establishment, persistence and fade-out as well as synchrony among subdivisions were performed. Seven monotypic and one heterotypic dengue epidemic occurred, followed by low-level viral circulation with a recrudescent epidemic occurring on one occasion. Incidence was asynchronous among the subdivisions. Complete viral die-out occurred on several occasions with invasion of a new serotype. Competitive serotype replacement has been observed previously and seems to be characteristic of the South Pacific. Island population size had a strong impact on the establishment, persistence and fade-out of dengue cases and endemicity was estimated achievable only at a population size in excess of 175 000. Despite island remoteness and low population size, dengue cases were observed somewhere in French Polynesia almost constantly, in part due to the spatial structuration generating asynchrony among subdivisions. Long-term persistence of dengue virus in this group of island populations may be enabled by island hopping, although could equally be explained by a reservoir of sub-clinical infections on the most populated island, Tahiti. Dengue virus is the most significant arthropod-borne virus infecting man. Understanding how long dengue virus can persist in populations of varying size is key to understanding its epidemiology. This is, however, impossible to achieve in settings where dengue is endemic, because of continued human movement and is further complexified by the occurrence of several co-circulating serotypes. By contrast, French Polynesia, an isolated group of 72 inhabited islands in the South Pacific, has had intermittent majoritarily monotypic dengue epidemics since the 1940s and offers a unique opportunity to address questions of viral persistence, turnover and the importance of spatial sub-structure in determining dengue epidemiology. Collating and analyzing a database of laboratory-confirmed dengue cases from across French Polynesia over a 35 year period we were able to show that dengue virus die-out can occur with or without replacement by a new serotype, monotypic transmission of dengue viruses fails to be maintained within small island populations but can persist for years among isolated islands connected via air and sea links. This remarkable long-term persistence of dengue virus in French Polynesia could be maintained by asynchronous viral transmission among connected islands and/or by repeated seeding from a reservoir of sub-clinical infections in the most populated island, Tahiti.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoann Teissier
- Laboratoire de recherche sur les maladies infectieuses à transmission vectorielle, Institut Louis Malardé, Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia
- Université Paris Descartes, PSL University, Paris, France
| | - Richard Paul
- Institut Pasteur, Unité de Génétique Fonctionnelle des Maladies Infectieuses, UMR 2000 CNRS, Paris, France
- Pasteur Kyoto International Joint Research Unit for Integrative Vaccinomics, Kyoto, Japan
- * E-mail: (RP); (VMCL)
| | - Maite Aubry
- Laboratoire de recherche sur les maladies infectieuses à transmission vectorielle, Institut Louis Malardé, Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia
| | - Xavier Rodo
- ICREA, Barcelona, Spain
- CLIMA (Climate and Health) Program, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carlos Dommar
- CLIMA (Climate and Health) Program, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Henrik Salje
- Institut Pasteur, Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, UMR 2000, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France
| | - Anavaj Sakuntabhai
- Institut Pasteur, Unité de Génétique Fonctionnelle des Maladies Infectieuses, UMR 2000 CNRS, Paris, France
- Pasteur Kyoto International Joint Research Unit for Integrative Vaccinomics, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Bernard Cazelles
- International Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems (UMMISCO), UMI 209, Sorbonne Université - IRD, Bondy cedex, France
- iGLOBE, UMI CNRS 3157, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America
- IBENS, UMR 8197 CNRS-ENS Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
| | - Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau
- Laboratoire de recherche sur les maladies infectieuses à transmission vectorielle, Institut Louis Malardé, Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia
- * E-mail: (RP); (VMCL)
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17
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Yue RPH, Lee HF. Drought-induced spatio-temporal synchrony of plague outbreak in Europe. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 698:134138. [PMID: 31505345 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2019] [Revised: 08/16/2019] [Accepted: 08/26/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Plague synchronously swept across separated regions in Europe throughout history. However, the spatio-temporal synchrony of plague and its driving mechanism have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we transformed the historical European plague database spanned 1347-1800 CE into country-level time-series that differentiated large-scale plague outbreak from counted data. We found that there are 74 years in which two or more countries in our study region (UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy) experienced large-scale plague outbreak in the same year. Our Multivariate Ripley's K-function results showed that the onset year and the cessation year of large-scale plague outbreak are synchronized at the 0-23-year and 0-20-year windows, respectively. The temporal association between such synchrony and climatic forcing was further investigated using the Superposed Epoch Analysis, and drought was found to be responsible for the synchrony. Integrating our results with a literature survey, we suggested that prior to the peak of plague, the occurrence of drought and the subsequent reintroduced rainfall dampened both the rodent community and human society and boosted the number of fleas that carried plague. Such a synthesis facilitated the outbreak of plague. At the same time, high temperature associated with such drought also confined the geographic diffusion of the plague. Hence, although continental mega-drought could initiate the synchrony of plague outbreak, the synchrony actually consisted of a number of localized plague outbreak events scattering across different regions in Europe. According to the projected rising trend of drought in terms of its magnitude, duration, and geographic extent, the risk of synchrony of rodent-borne diseases in Europe will be significantly elevated, especially in France, Italy, and Spain.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ricci P H Yue
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong.
| | - Harry F Lee
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong.
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18
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Novelo M, Hall MD, Pak D, Young PR, Holmes EC, McGraw EA. Intra-host growth kinetics of dengue virus in the mosquito Aedes aegypti. PLoS Pathog 2019; 15:e1008218. [PMID: 31790509 PMCID: PMC6907869 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1008218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2019] [Revised: 12/12/2019] [Accepted: 11/14/2019] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue virus (DENV) transmission by mosquitoes is a time-dependent process that begins with the consumption of an infectious blood-meal. DENV infection then proceeds stepwise through the mosquito from the midgut to the carcass, and ultimately to the salivary glands, where it is secreted into saliva and then transmitted anew on a subsequent bite. We examined viral kinetics in tissues of the Aedes aegypti mosquito over a finely graded time course, and as per previous studies, found that initial viral dose and serotype strain diversity control infectivity. We also found that a threshold level of virus is required to establish body-wide infections and that replication kinetics in the early and intermediate tissues do not predict those of the salivary glands. Our findings have implications for mosquito GMO design, modeling the contribution of transmission to vector competence and the role of mosquito kinetics in the overall DENV epidemiological landscape. DENV infection in the mosquito is a complex and dynamic process. Following ingestion of an infected blood meal, DENV enters the mosquito midgut epithelial cells, where it replicates. Subsequently, the virus disseminates and infects other tissues, including hemocytes, fat body and reproductive organs, ultimately reaching the salivary glands. The kinetics of infection are influenced by genetic variation in the virus. Comparisons between strains within single serotypes, have revealed variation in infection rates in mosquitoes. To explore the role of infectious dose, serotype and tissue in viral infection kinetics we sampled DENV loads in populations of infected mosquitoes over numerous, sequential time-points. We reveal that the kinetics of DENV infection in the midgut, carcass and salivary glands of the mosquito Aedes aegypti are strikingly different among the strains selected for this study, and that these differences are also driven by the initial infectious dose.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mario Novelo
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Entomology, The Huck Institutes of the Life Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Matthew D. Hall
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Damie Pak
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, The Huck Institutes of the Life Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Paul R. Young
- Australian Infectious Diseases Research Centre, School of Chemistry and Molecular Biosciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Edward C. Holmes
- Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, Charles Perkins Centre, School of Life and Environmental Sciences and Sydney Medical School, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Elizabeth A. McGraw
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Entomology, The Huck Institutes of the Life Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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19
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Turell MJ, Gozalo AS, Guevara C, Schoeler GB, Carbajal F, López-Sifuentes VM, Watts DM. Lack of Evidence of Sylvatic Transmission of Dengue Viruses in the Amazon Rainforest Near Iquitos, Peru. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2019; 19:685-689. [PMID: 30964397 PMCID: PMC6716187 DOI: 10.1089/vbz.2018.2408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Dengue viruses (DENV) are currently responsible for more human morbidity and mortality than any other known arbovirus, and all four DENV are known to exist in sylvatic cycles that might allow these viruses to persist if the urban (Aedes aegypti) cycle could be controlled. To determine whether DENV were being maintained in a sylvatic cycle in a forested area about 14 km southwest of Iquitos, Peru, a city in which all 4 serotypes of DENV circulate, we placed 20 DENV seronegative Aotus monkeys in cages either in the canopy or near ground level for a total of 125.6 months. Despite capturing >66,000 mosquitoes in traps that collected some of the mosquitoes attracted to these monkeys, blood samples obtained once a month from each animal were tested and found to be negative by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for IgM and IgG antibodies to dengue, yellow fever, Venezuelan equine encephalitis, Oropouche, and Mayaro viruses. Although all four DENV serotypes were endemic in nearby Iquitos, the findings of this study did not support a DENV sylvatic maintenance and transmission cycle in a selected area of the Amazon rainforest in northeastern Peru.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael J. Turell
- Virology Division, U.S. Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, Maryland
| | - Alfonso S. Gozalo
- Department of Entomology, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Callao, Peru
| | - Carolina Guevara
- Department of Entomology, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Callao, Peru
| | - George B. Schoeler
- Department of Entomology, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Callao, Peru
| | - Faustino Carbajal
- Department of Entomology, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Callao, Peru
| | | | - Douglas M. Watts
- Department of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases, Naval Medical Research Center, Silver Spring, Maryland
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20
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Abdul-Ghani R, Mahdy MAK, Al-Eryani SMA, Fouque F, Lenhart AE, Alkwri A, Al-Mikhlafi AM, Wilke ABB, Thabet AAQ, Beier JC. Impact of population displacement and forced movements on the transmission and outbreaks of Aedes-borne viral diseases: Dengue as a model. Acta Trop 2019; 197:105066. [PMID: 31226251 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2019.105066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2018] [Revised: 05/31/2019] [Accepted: 06/17/2019] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
Population displacement and other forced movement patterns following natural disasters, armed conflicts or due to socioeconomic reasons contribute to the global emergence of Aedes-borne viral disease epidemics. In particular, dengue epidemiology is critically affected by situations of displacement and forced movement patterns, particularly within and across borders. In this respect, waves of human movements have been a major driver for the changing epidemiology and outbreaks of the disease on local, regional and global scales. Both emerging dengue autochthonous transmission and outbreaks in countries known to be non-endemic and co-circulation and hyperendemicity with multiple dengue virus serotypes have led to the emergence of severe disease forms such as dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. This paper reviews the emergence of dengue outbreaks driven by population displacement and forced movements following natural disasters and conflicts within the context of regional and sub-regional groupings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rashad Abdul-Ghani
- Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen; Tropical Disease Research Center, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Science and Technology, Sana'a, Yemen.
| | - Mohammed A K Mahdy
- Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen; Tropical Disease Research Center, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Science and Technology, Sana'a, Yemen
| | - Samira M A Al-Eryani
- Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen
| | - Florence Fouque
- UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Audrey E Lenhart
- Center for Global Health/Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria/Entomology Branch, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Abdulsamad Alkwri
- Integrated Vector Management Unit, National Malaria Control Programme, Ministry of Public Health and Population, Sana'a, Yemen
| | - Abdulsalam M Al-Mikhlafi
- Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen
| | - André B B Wilke
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Ahmed A Q Thabet
- Neglected Tropical Diseases and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Department, WHO Office, Sana'a, Yemen
| | - John C Beier
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USA
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21
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Sharp TM, Lorenzi O, Torres-Velásquez B, Acevedo V, Pérez-Padilla J, Rivera A, Muñoz-Jordán J, Margolis HS, Waterman SH, Biggerstaff BJ, Paz-Bailey G, Barrera R. Autocidal gravid ovitraps protect humans from chikungunya virus infection by reducing Aedes aegypti mosquito populations. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007538. [PMID: 31344040 PMCID: PMC6657827 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2019] [Accepted: 06/10/2019] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Public health responses to outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus have been stymied by the inability to control the primary vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitos. Consequently, the need for novel approaches to Aedes vector control is urgent. Placement of three autocidal gravid ovitraps (AGO traps) in ~85% of homes in a community was previously shown to sustainably reduce the density of female Ae. aegypti by >80%. Following the introduction of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) to Puerto Rico, we conducted a seroprevalence survey to estimate the prevalence of CHIKV infection in communities with and without AGO traps and evaluate their effect on reducing CHIKV transmission. Methods and findings Multivariate models that calculated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) showed that among 175 and 152 residents of communities with and without AGO traps, respectively, an estimated 26.1% and 43.8% had been infected with CHIKV (aPR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.37–0.91). After stratification by time spent in their community, protection from CHIKV infection was strongest among residents who reported spending many or all weekly daytime hours in their community:10.3% seropositive in communities with AGO traps vs. 48.7% in communities without (PR = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.11–0.41). The age-adjusted rate of fever with arthralgia attributable to CHIKV infection was 58% (95% CI: 46–66%). The monthly number of CHIKV-infected mosquitos and symptomatic residents were diminished in communities with AGO traps compared to those without. Conclusions These findings indicate that AGO traps are an effective tool that protects humans from infection with a virus transmitted by Ae. aegypti mosquitos. Future studies should evaluate their protective effectiveness in large, urban communities. Aedes species mosquitos transmit pathogens of public health importance, including dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses. No tools exist to control these mosquitos that sustainably and effectively prevent human infections. Autocidal gravid ovitraps (AGO traps) have been shown to sustainably reduce Aedes populations by >80%. After chikungunya virus was introduced into Puerto Rico, we conducted serosurveys in communities with and without AGO traps. We observed a two-fold lower prevalence of chikungunya virus infection among residents of communities with AGO traps compared to communities without. Among infected residents of communities with traps, a significant proportion likely had been infected while outside their community. These findings indicate that AGO traps are an effective tool that protects humans from infection with pathogens transmitted by Aedes mosquitos.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tyler M. Sharp
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dengue Branch, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
- United States Public Health Service, Silver Springs, Maryland, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Olga Lorenzi
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dengue Branch, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Brenda Torres-Velásquez
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dengue Branch, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Veronica Acevedo
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dengue Branch, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Janice Pérez-Padilla
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dengue Branch, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Aidsa Rivera
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dengue Branch, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Jorge Muñoz-Jordán
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dengue Branch, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Harold S. Margolis
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dengue Branch, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Stephen H. Waterman
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dengue Branch, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
- United States Public Health Service, Silver Springs, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Brad J. Biggerstaff
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Gabriela Paz-Bailey
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dengue Branch, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Roberto Barrera
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dengue Branch, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
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22
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Stone CM, Schwab SR, Fonseca DM, Fefferman NH. Contrasting the value of targeted versus area-wide mosquito control scenarios to limit arbovirus transmission with human mobility patterns based on different tropical urban population centers. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007479. [PMID: 31269020 PMCID: PMC6608929 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007479] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2018] [Accepted: 05/20/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Vector control is still our primary intervention for both prevention and mitigation of epidemics of many vector-borne diseases. Efficiently targeting control measures is important since control can involve substantial economic costs. Targeting is not always straightforward, as transmission of vector-borne diseases is affected by various types of host movement. Here we assess how taking daily commuting patterns into consideration can help improve vector control efforts. We examine three tropical urban centers (San Juan, Recife, and Jakarta) that have recently been exposed to Zika and/or dengue infections and consider whether the distribution of human populations and resulting commuting flows affects the optimal scale at which control interventions should be implemented. We developed a stochastic, spatial model and investigated four control scenarios. The scenarios differed in the spatial extent of their implementation and were: 1) a response at the level of an individual neighborhood; 2) a response targeted at a neighborhood in which infected humans were detected and the one with which it was most strongly connected by human movement; 3) a limited area-wide response where all neighborhoods within a certain radius of the focal area were included; and 4) a collective response where all participating neighborhoods implemented control. The relative effectiveness of the scenarios varied only slightly between different settings, with the number of infections averted over time increasing with the scale of implementation. This difference depended on the efficacy of control at the neighborhood level. At low levels of efficacy, the scenarios mirrored each other in infections averted. At high levels of efficacy, impact increased with the scale of the intervention. As a result, the choice between scenarios will not only be a function of the amount of effort decision-makers are willing to invest, but largely epend on the overall effectiveness of vector control approaches. Control and prevention of Aedes-transmitted viruses, such as dengue, chikungunya, or Zika relies heavily on vector control approaches. Given the effort and cost involved in implementation of vector control, targeting of control measures is highly desirable. However, it is unclear to what extent the effectiveness of highly focal and reactive control measures depends on the commuting and movement patterns of humans. To investigate this question, we developed a model and four control scenarios that ranged from highly focal to area-wide larval control. The distribution of humans and their commuting patterns were modelled after three major tropical urban centers, San Juan, Recife, and Jakarta. We show that as implementation is applied across a wider area, a greater number of infections is averted. Critically, this only occurs if the efficacy of control at the neighborhood level is sufficiently high. A consistent outcome across the three settings was that the focal strategy was most likely to provide the best outcome at lower levels of effort, and when the efficacy of control was low. These outcomes suggest that optimal control strategies will likely have to be tailored to individual settings by decision makers and would benefit from localized cost-effectiveness modelling studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris M. Stone
- Illinois Natural History Survey, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, United Sates of America
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, United Sates of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Samantha R. Schwab
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United Sates of America
| | - Dina M. Fonseca
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United Sates of America
- Center for Vector Biology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United Sates of America
| | - Nina H. Fefferman
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, United Sates of America
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Chiaravalloti-Neto F, da Silva RA, Zini N, da Silva GCD, da Silva NS, Parra MCP, Dibo MR, Estofolete CF, Fávaro EA, Dutra KR, Mota MTO, Guimarães GF, Terzian ACB, Blangiardo M, Nogueira ML. Seroprevalence for dengue virus in a hyperendemic area and associated socioeconomic and demographic factors using a cross-sectional design and a geostatistical approach, state of São Paulo, Brazil. BMC Infect Dis 2019; 19:441. [PMID: 31109295 PMCID: PMC6528304 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-019-4074-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2018] [Accepted: 05/09/2019] [Indexed: 01/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND São José do Rio Preto is one of the cities of the state of São Paulo, Brazil, that is hyperendemic for dengue, with the presence of the four dengue serotypes. OBJECTIVES to calculate dengue seroprevalence in a neighbourhood of São José do Rio Preto and identify if socioeconomic and demographic covariates are associated with dengue seropositivity. METHODS A cohort study to evaluate dengue seroprevalence and incidence and associated factors on people aged 10 years or older, was assembled in Vila Toninho neighbourhood, São José do Rio Preto. The participant enrolment occurred from October 2015 to March 2016 (the first wave of the cohort study), when blood samples were collected for serological test (ELISA IgG anti-DENV) and questionnaires were administrated on socio-demographic variables. We evaluated the data collected in this first wave using a cross-sectional design. We considered seropositive the participants that were positive in the serological test (seronegative otherwise). We modelled the seroprevalence with a logistic regression in a geostatistical approach. The Bayesian inference was made using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) coupled with the Stochastic Partial Differential Equation method (SPDE). RESULTS We found 986 seropositive individuals for DENV in 1322 individuals surveyed in the study area in the first wave of the cohort study, corresponding to a seroprevalence of 74.6% (95%CI: 72.2-76.9). Between the population that said never had dengue fever, 68.4% (566/828) were dengue seropositive. Older people, non-white and living in a house (instead of in an apartment), were positively associated with dengue seropositivity. We adjusted for the other socioeconomic and demographic covariates, and accounted for residual spatial dependence between observations, which was found to present up to 800 m. CONCLUSIONS Only one in four people aged 10 years or older did not have contact with any of the serotypes of dengue virus in Vila Toninho neighbourhood in São José do Rio Preto. Age, race and type of house were associated with the occurrence of the disease. The use of INLA in a geostatistical approach in a Bayesian context allowed us to take into account the spatial dependence between the observations and identify the associated covariates to dengue seroprevalence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisco Chiaravalloti-Neto
- Departamento de Epidemiologia, Faculdade de Saúde Pública, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), Avenida Doutor Arnaldo 715, São Paulo, SP, 01246-904, Brazil.
| | - Rafael Alves da Silva
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), Avenida Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 5416, São José do Rio Preto, SP, 15090-000, Brazil
| | - Nathalia Zini
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), Avenida Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 5416, São José do Rio Preto, SP, 15090-000, Brazil
| | - Gislaine Celestino Dutra da Silva
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), Avenida Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 5416, São José do Rio Preto, SP, 15090-000, Brazil
| | - Natal Santos da Silva
- Laboratório de Modelagens Matemática e Estatística em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, União das Faculdades dos Grandes Lagos, Rua Doutor Eduardo Nielsen 960, São José do Rio Preto, SP, 15030-070, Brazil
| | - Maisa Carla Pereira Parra
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), Avenida Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 5416, São José do Rio Preto, SP, 15090-000, Brazil
| | - Margareth Regina Dibo
- Laboratório de Entomologia, Superintendência de Controle de Endemias, Rua Cardeal Arcoverde 2878, São Paulo, SP, 05408-003, Brazil
| | - Cassia Fernanda Estofolete
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), Avenida Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 5416, São José do Rio Preto, SP, 15090-000, Brazil
| | - Eliane Aparecida Fávaro
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), Avenida Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 5416, São José do Rio Preto, SP, 15090-000, Brazil
| | - Karina Rocha Dutra
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), Avenida Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 5416, São José do Rio Preto, SP, 15090-000, Brazil
| | - Manlio Tasso Oliveira Mota
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), Avenida Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 5416, São José do Rio Preto, SP, 15090-000, Brazil
| | - Georgia Freitas Guimarães
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), Avenida Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 5416, São José do Rio Preto, SP, 15090-000, Brazil
| | - Ana Carolina Bernardes Terzian
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), Avenida Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 5416, São José do Rio Preto, SP, 15090-000, Brazil
| | - Marta Blangiardo
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College, St. Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Mauricio Lacerda Nogueira
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), Avenida Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 5416, São José do Rio Preto, SP, 15090-000, Brazil
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24
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da Silva NS, Undurraga EA, Verro AT, Nogueira ML. Comparison between the traditional (1997) and revised (2009) WHO classifications of dengue disease: a retrospective study of 30 670 patients. Trop Med Int Health 2018; 23:1282-1293. [DOI: 10.1111/tmi.13155] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Natal Santos da Silva
- União das Faculdades dos Grandes Lagos; São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo Brazil
- Laboratório de Modelagens Matemática e Estatística em Medicina; União das Faculdades dos Grandes Lagos; São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo Brazil
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia; Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto; São Paulo Brazil
| | - Eduardo A. Undurraga
- Escuela de Gobierno; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Santiago Región Metropolitana Chile
| | - Alice Tobal Verro
- União das Faculdades dos Grandes Lagos; São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo Brazil
- Laboratório de Modelagens Matemática e Estatística em Medicina; União das Faculdades dos Grandes Lagos; São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo Brazil
| | - Maurício Lacerda Nogueira
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia; Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto; São Paulo Brazil
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25
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Ertem Z, Raymond D, Meyers LA. Optimal multi-source forecasting of seasonal influenza. PLoS Comput Biol 2018; 14:e1006236. [PMID: 30180212 PMCID: PMC6138397 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006236] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2018] [Revised: 09/14/2018] [Accepted: 05/28/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Forecasting the emergence and spread of influenza viruses is an important public health challenge. Timely and accurate estimates of influenza prevalence, particularly of severe cases requiring hospitalization, can improve control measures to reduce transmission and mortality. Here, we extend a previously published machine learning method for influenza forecasting to integrate multiple diverse data sources, including traditional surveillance data, electronic health records, internet search traffic, and social media activity. Our hierarchical framework uses multi-linear regression to combine forecasts from multiple data sources and greedy optimization with forward selection to sequentially choose the most predictive combinations of data sources. We show that the systematic integration of complementary data sources can substantially improve forecast accuracy over single data sources. When forecasting the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) influenza-like-illness reports (ILINet) from week 48 through week 20, the optimal combination of predictors includes public health surveillance data and commercially available electronic medical records, but neither search engine nor social media data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zeynep Ertem
- Department of Statistics and Data Science, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Dorrie Raymond
- athenaResearch, Watertown, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Lauren Ancel Meyers
- Departments of Integrative Biology and Statistics and Data Science, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America
- The Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States of America
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26
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Barrios E, Lee S, Vasilieva O. Assessing the effects of daily commuting in two-patch dengue dynamics: A case study of Cali, Colombia. J Theor Biol 2018; 453:14-39. [PMID: 29775680 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.05.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2017] [Revised: 05/07/2018] [Accepted: 05/10/2018] [Indexed: 10/16/2022]
Abstract
There are many infectious diseases that can be spread by daily commuting of people and dengue fever is one of them. The absence of vaccine and irregularities in ongoing vector control programs make this disease the most frequent and persistent in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. This paper targets to access the effects of daily commuting on dengue transmission dynamics by using a deterministic two-patch model fitted to observed data gathered in Cali, Colombia where dengue fever is highly persistent and exhibits endemo-epidemic patterns. The two-patch dengue transmission model with daily communing of human residents between patches (that is, between the city and its suburban areas) is presented using the concept of residence times, which certainly affect the disease transmission rates by inducing variability in human population sizes and vectorial densities at each patch. The same modeling framework is applied to two primary scenarios (epidemic outbreaks and endemic persistence of the disease) and for each scenario two coupling cases (one-way and asymmetric commuting) with different inflow and outflow intensities are analyzed. The concept of effective vectorial density, introduced in this paper, allows to explain in very simple terms why the daily commuting affects quite differently the dengue morbidity among human residents in both patches. In particular, residents of the patch with a greater share of incoming than outgoing commuters may actually "benefit" from inflow of daily commuter by avoiding a considerable number of infections. However, residents of the patch with a greater share of outgoing than incoming commuters, especially those who stay at home patch, incur more risk of getting infected. Additionally, the model shows that daily commuting enhance the total number of human infections acquired in both patches and may even provoke an epidemic outbreak in one patch while moderately lowering the level of the disease persistence in another patch.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edwin Barrios
- Department of Mathematics, Universidad del Valle, Calle 13 No. 100-00, Cali 760032, Colombia.
| | - Sunmi Lee
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University Kyung Hee, 1732 Deokyoungdaero, Giheung-gu,Yongin-si, Gyeonggi-do 446-701, Republic of Korea.
| | - Olga Vasilieva
- Department of Mathematics, Universidad del Valle, Calle 13 No. 100-00, Cali 760032, Colombia.
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27
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Vogt MB, Lahon A, Arya RP, Kneubehl AR, Spencer Clinton JL, Paust S, Rico-Hesse R. Mosquito saliva alone has profound effects on the human immune system. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006439. [PMID: 29771921 PMCID: PMC5957326 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006439] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2017] [Accepted: 04/10/2018] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Mosquito saliva is a very complex concoction of >100 proteins, many of which have unknown functions. The effects of mosquito saliva proteins injected into our skin during blood feeding have been studied mainly in mouse models of injection or biting, with many of these systems producing results that may not be relevant to human disease. Here, we describe the numerous effects that mosquito bites have on human immune cells in mice engrafted with human hematopoietic stem cells. We used flow cytometry and multiplex cytokine bead array assays, with detailed statistical analyses, to detect small but significant variations in immune cell functions after 4 mosquitoes fed on humanized mice footpads. After preliminary analyses, at different early times after biting, we focused on assessing innate immune and subsequent cellular responses at 6 hours, 24 hours and 7 days after mosquito bites. We detected both Th1 and Th2 human immune responses, and delayed effects on cytokine levels in the blood, and immune cell compositions in the skin and bone marrow, up to 7 days post-bites. These are the first measurements of this kind, with human immune responses in whole animals, bitten by living mosquitoes, versus previous studies using incomplete mouse models and salivary gland extracts or needle injected saliva. The results have major implications for the study of hematophagous insect saliva, its effects on the human immune system, with or without pathogen transmission, and the possibility of determining which of these proteins to target for vaccination, in attempts to block transmission of numerous tropical diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Megan B. Vogt
- Integrative Molecular and Biomedical Sciences Graduate Program, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Anismrita Lahon
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Ravi P. Arya
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Alexander R. Kneubehl
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Jennifer L. Spencer Clinton
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Silke Paust
- Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Rebecca Rico-Hesse
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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Katzelnick LC, Harris E. The use of longitudinal cohorts for studies of dengue viral pathogenesis and protection. Curr Opin Virol 2018; 29:51-61. [PMID: 29597086 PMCID: PMC5996389 DOI: 10.1016/j.coviro.2018.03.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2018] [Accepted: 03/12/2018] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
In this review, we describe how longitudinal prospective community-based, school-based, and household-based cohort studies contribute to improving our knowledge of viral disease, focusing specifically on contributions to understanding and preventing dengue. We describe how longitudinal cohorts enable measurement of essential disease parameters and risk factors; provide insights into biological correlates of protection and disease risk; enable rapid application of novel biological and statistical technologies; lead to development of new interventions and inform vaccine trial design; serve as sentinels in outbreak conditions and facilitate development of critical diagnostic assays; enable holistic studies on disease in the context of other infections, comorbidities, and environmental risk factors; and build research capacity that strengthens national and global public health response and disease surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leah C Katzelnick
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 185 Li Ka Shing Center, 1951 Oxford Street, Berkeley, CA 94720-3370, United States
| | - Eva Harris
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 185 Li Ka Shing Center, 1951 Oxford Street, Berkeley, CA 94720-3370, United States.
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Spatio-temporal coherence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in Merida, Mexico. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006298. [PMID: 29543910 PMCID: PMC5870998 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006298] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2017] [Revised: 03/27/2018] [Accepted: 02/04/2018] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Response to Zika virus (ZIKV) invasion in Brazil lagged a year from its estimated February 2014 introduction, and was triggered by the occurrence of severe congenital malformations. Dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) invasions tend to show similar response lags. We analyzed geo-coded symptomatic case reports from the city of Merida, Mexico, with the goal of assessing the utility of historical DENV data to infer CHIKV and ZIKV introduction and propagation. About 42% of the 40,028 DENV cases reported during 2008–2015 clustered in 27% of the city, and these clustering areas were where the first CHIKV and ZIKV cases were reported in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Furthermore, the three viruses had significant agreement in their spatio-temporal distribution (Kendall W>0.63; p<0.01). Longitudinal DENV data generated patterns indicative of the resulting introduction and transmission patterns of CHIKV and ZIKV, leading to important insights for the surveillance and targeted control to emerging Aedes-borne viruses. Over the past decades, Aedes-borne viruses (dengue, chikungunya, Zika) have become a major source of morbidity within urban areas. Worldwide, public health response to these viruses is reactive to the occurrence of symptomatic cases (a small proportion of all infections). Here we used geocoded passive surveillance data to determine if areas of historically persistent dengue transmission fuel the introduction and propagation of other Aedes-borne viruses. This article provides quantitative evidence of the strong spatio-temporal overlap that occurs between dengue, chikungunya and Zika, all transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in the city. Additionally, it emphasizes the value of analyzing long-term geo-coded passive surveillance information to help identify areas for prioritizing surveillance and control. Findings from this article open a window for considering historical DENV data to make predictions of likely sources of invasion for other emerging Aedes-borne viruses, as well as to the consideration of spatially-targeted approaches for delivery of vector control and surveillance. Arbovirus control in complex urban environments can greatly benefit from exploiting existing spatial information for better delivery of interventions.
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Grossi-Soyster EN, Cook EAJ, de Glanville WA, Thomas LF, Krystosik AR, Lee J, Wamae CN, Kariuki S, Fèvre EM, LaBeaud AD. Serological and spatial analysis of alphavirus and flavivirus prevalence and risk factors in a rural community in western Kenya. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017; 11:e0005998. [PMID: 29040262 PMCID: PMC5659799 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005998] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2017] [Revised: 10/27/2017] [Accepted: 09/27/2017] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Alphaviruses, such as chikungunya virus, and flaviviruses, such as dengue virus, are (re)-emerging arboviruses that are endemic in tropical environments. In Africa, arbovirus infections are often undiagnosed and unreported, with febrile illnesses often assumed to be malaria. This cross-sectional study aimed to characterize the seroprevalence of alphaviruses and flaviviruses among children (ages 5-14, n = 250) and adults (ages 15 ≥ 75, n = 250) in western Kenya. Risk factors for seropositivity were explored using Lasso regression. Overall, 67% of participants showed alphavirus seropositivity (CI95 63%-70%), and 1.6% of participants showed flavivirus seropositivity (CI95 0.7%-3%). Children aged 10-14 were more likely to be seropositive to an alphavirus than adults (p < 0.001), suggesting a recent transmission period. Alphavirus and flavivirus seropositivity was detected in the youngest participants (age 5-9), providing evidence of inter-epidemic transmission. Demographic variables that were significantly different amongst those with previous infection versus those without infection included age, education level, and occupation. Behavioral and environmental variables significantly different amongst those in with previous infection to those without infection included taking animals for grazing, fishing, and recent village flooding. Experience of recent fever was also found to be a significant indicator of infection (p = 0.027). These results confirm alphavirus and flavivirus exposure in western Kenya, while illustrating significantly higher alphavirus transmission compared to previous studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elysse N. Grossi-Soyster
- Departments of Pediatrics, Infectious Disease Division, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Elizabeth A. J. Cook
- Zoonotic and Emerging Diseases Group, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, Institute for Immunology and Infection Research, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - William A. de Glanville
- Zoonotic and Emerging Diseases Group, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, Institute for Immunology and Infection Research, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Lian F. Thomas
- Zoonotic and Emerging Diseases Group, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, Institute for Immunology and Infection Research, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Amy R. Krystosik
- Departments of Pediatrics, Infectious Disease Division, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Justin Lee
- Quantitative Sciences Unit, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - C. Njeri Wamae
- Department of Microbiology, School of Medicine, Mount Kenya University, Thika, Kenya
| | - Samuel Kariuki
- Centre for Microbiology Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Eric M. Fèvre
- Zoonotic and Emerging Diseases Group, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Leahurst Campus, Neston, United Kingdom
| | - A. Desiree LaBeaud
- Departments of Pediatrics, Infectious Disease Division, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
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Fuentes-Vallejo M. Space and space-time distributions of dengue in a hyper-endemic urban space: the case of Girardot, Colombia. BMC Infect Dis 2017; 17:512. [PMID: 28738782 PMCID: PMC5525249 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-017-2610-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2017] [Accepted: 07/18/2017] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Dengue is a widely spread vector-borne disease. Dengue cases in the Americas have increased over the last few decades, affecting various urban spaces throughout these continents, including the tourism-oriented city of Girardot, Colombia. Interactions among mosquitoes, pathogens and humans have recently been examined using different temporal and spatial scales in attempts to determine the roles that social and ecological systems play in dengue transmission. The current work characterizes the spatial and temporal behaviours of dengue in Girardot and discusses the potential territorial dynamics related to the distribution of this disease. Methods Based on officially reported dengue cases (2012–2015) corresponding to epidemic (2013) and inter-epidemic years (2012, 2014, 2015), space (Getis-Ord index) and space-time (Kulldorff’s scan statistics) analyses were performed. Results Geocoded dengue cases (n = 2027) were slightly overrepresented by men (52.1%). As expected, the cases were concentrated in the 0- to 15-year-old age group according to the actual trends of Colombia. The incidence rates of dengue during the rainy and dry seasons as well as those for individual years (2012, 2013 and 2014) were significant using the global Getis-Ord index. Local clusters shifted across seasons and years; nevertheless, the incidence rates clustered towards the southwest region of the city under different residential conditions. Space-time clusters shifted from the northeast to the southwest of the city (2012–2014). These clusters represented only 4.25% of the total cases over the same period (n = 1623). A general trend was observed, in which dengue cases increased during the dry seasons, especially between December and February. Conclusions Despite study limitations related to official dengue records and available fine-scale demographic information, the spatial analysis results were promising from a geography of health perspective. Dengue did not show linear association with poverty or with vulnerable peripheral spaces in intra-urban settings, supporting the idea that the pathogenic complex of dengue is driven by different factors. A coordinated collaboration of epidemiological, public health and social science expertise is needed to assess the effect of “place” from a relational perspective in which geography has an important role to play. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2610-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mauricio Fuentes-Vallejo
- Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá, Bogotá, Colombia. .,Laboratory of Social Dynamics and Spatial Reconstruction (LADYSS), Paris, France.
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Mendenhall IH, Manuel M, Moorthy M, Lee TTM, Low DHW, Missé D, Gubler DJ, Ellis BR, Ooi EE, Pompon J. Peridomestic Aedes malayensis and Aedes albopictus are capable vectors of arboviruses in cities. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017. [PMID: 28650959 PMCID: PMC5501678 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005667] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue and chikungunya are global re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases. In Singapore, sustained vector control coupled with household improvements reduced domestic mosquito populations for the past 45 years, particularly the primary vector Aedes aegypti. However, while disease incidence was low for the first 30 years following vector control implementation, outbreaks have re-emerged in the past 15 years. Epidemiological observations point to the importance of peridomestic infection in areas not targeted by control programs. We investigated the role of vectors in peri-domestic areas. METHODS We carried out entomological surveys to identify the Aedes species present in vegetated sites in highly populated areas and determine whether mosquitoes were present in open-air areas frequented by people. We compared vector competence of Aedes albopictus and Aedes malayensis with Ae. aegypti after oral infection with sympatric dengue serotype 2 and chikungunya viruses. Mosquito saliva was tested for the presence of infectious virus particles as a surrogate for transmission following oral infection. RESULTS We identified Aedes albopictus and Aedes malayensis throughout Singapore and quantified their presence in forested and opened grassy areas. Both Ae. albopictus and Ae. malayensis can occupy sylvatic niches and were highly susceptible to both arboviruses. A majority of saliva of infected Ae. malayensis contained infectious particles for both viruses. CONCLUSIONS Our study reveals the prevalence of competent vectors in peri-domestic areas, including Ae. malayensis for which we established the vector status. Epidemics can be driven by infection foci, which are epidemiologically enhanced in the context of low herd immunity, selective pressure on arbovirus transmission and the presence of infectious asymptomatic persons, all these conditions being present in Singapore. Learning from Singapore's vector control success that reduced domestic vector populations, but has not sustainably reduced arboviral incidence, we suggest including peri-domestic vectors in the scope of vector management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian H. Mendenhall
- Program in Emerging Infectious Disease, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore
- * E-mail: (IHM); (JP)
| | - Menchie Manuel
- Program in Emerging Infectious Disease, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore
| | - Mahesh Moorthy
- Program in Emerging Infectious Disease, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore
- Department of Clinical Virology, Christian Medical College, Vellore, Tamilnadu, India
| | - Theodore T. M. Lee
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Dolyce H. W. Low
- Program in Emerging Infectious Disease, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore
| | - Dorothée Missé
- MIVEGEC, UMR IRD 224-CNRS5290-Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Duane J. Gubler
- Program in Emerging Infectious Disease, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore
| | - Brett R. Ellis
- Program in Emerging Infectious Disease, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore
| | - Eng Eong Ooi
- Program in Emerging Infectious Disease, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore
| | - Julien Pompon
- Program in Emerging Infectious Disease, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore
- MIVEGEC, UMR IRD 224-CNRS5290-Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
- * E-mail: (IHM); (JP)
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A bead-based immunofluorescence-assay on a microfluidic dielectrophoresis platform for rapid dengue virus detection. Biosens Bioelectron 2017; 95:174-180. [PMID: 28453962 DOI: 10.1016/j.bios.2017.04.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2017] [Revised: 04/07/2017] [Accepted: 04/11/2017] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
The proof of concept of utilizing a microfluidic dielectrophoresis (DEP) chip was conducted to rapidly detect a dengue virus (DENV) in vitro based on the fluorescence immunosensing. The mechanism of detection was that the DEP force was employed to capture the modified beads (mouse anti-flavivirus monoclonal antibody-coated beads) in the microfluidic chip and the DENV modified with fluorescence label, as the detection target, can be then captured on the modified beads by immunoreaction. The fluorescent signal was then obtained through fluorescence microscopy, and then quantified by ImageJ freeware. The platform can accelerate an immuno-reaction time, in which the on-chip detection time was 5min, and demonstrating an ability for DENV detection as low as 104 PFU/mL. Furthermore, the required volume of DENV samples dramatically reduced, from the commonly used ~50µL to ~15µL, and the chip was reusable (>50x). Overall, this platform provides a rapid detection (5min) of the DENV with a low sample volume, compared to conventional methods. This proof of concept with regard to a microfluidic dielectrophoresis chip thus shows the potential of immunofluorescence based-assay applications to meet diagnostic needs.
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Zellweger RM, Cano J, Mangeas M, Taglioni F, Mercier A, Despinoy M, Menkès CE, Dupont-Rouzeyrol M, Nikolay B, Teurlai M. Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of dengue transmission in an urban setting: An ecological study in Nouméa, New Caledonia. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017; 11:e0005471. [PMID: 28369149 PMCID: PMC5395238 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2016] [Revised: 04/18/2017] [Accepted: 03/08/2017] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that causes extensive morbidity and economic loss in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Often present in cities, dengue virus is rapidly spreading due to urbanization, climate change and increased human movements. Dengue cases are often heterogeneously distributed throughout cities, suggesting that small-scale determinants influence dengue urban transmission. A better understanding of these determinants is crucial to efficiently target prevention measures such as vector control and education. The aim of this study was to determine which socioeconomic and environmental determinants were associated with dengue incidence in an urban setting in the Pacific. Methodology An ecological study was performed using data summarized by neighborhood (i.e. the neighborhood is the unit of analysis) from two dengue epidemics (2008–2009 and 2012–2013) in the city of Nouméa, the capital of New Caledonia. Spatial patterns and hotspots of dengue transmission were assessed using global and local Moran’s I statistics. Multivariable negative binomial regression models were used to investigate the association between dengue incidence and various socioeconomic and environmental factors throughout the city. Principal findings The 2008–2009 epidemic was spatially structured, with clusters of high and low incidence neighborhoods. In 2012–2013, dengue incidence rates were more homogeneous throughout the city. In all models tested, higher dengue incidence rates were consistently associated with lower socioeconomic status (higher unemployment, lower revenue or higher percentage of population born in the Pacific, which are interrelated). A higher percentage of apartments was associated with lower dengue incidence rates during both epidemics in all models but one. A link between vegetation coverage and dengue incidence rates was also detected, but the link varied depending on the model used. Conclusions This study demonstrates a robust spatial association between dengue incidence rates and socioeconomic status across the different neighborhoods of the city of Nouméa. Our findings provide useful information to guide policy and help target dengue prevention efforts where they are needed most. Dengue virus is rapidly spreading throughout tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, possibly aided by environmental change, urbanization and/or increase in human mobility. Already present in 120 countries, dengue virus causes extensive disease burden and generates large economic costs. As dengue is mosquito-borne, its transmission pattern is strongly influenced by climate. However, dengue cases are not always distributed evenly throughout cities, where climate can be assumed to be homogenous. This suggests that other factors which are heterogeneously distributed in cities could play a role in dengue transmission, such as socioeconomic status and environmental factors (both natural and built). Identifying those factors is crucial to develop and target dengue prevention interventions, such as mosquito control and education. Our study uses dengue incidence statistics from two large epidemics in Nouméa, the capital of New Caledonia, to investigate which socioeconomic or environmental factors correlate with dengue incidence in an urban setting. Dengue incidence was consistently higher in neighborhoods where socioeconomic status was lower (i.e. lower revenue or higher unemployment) and often higher where the proportion of single-family houses in all buildings was higher. Our data suggest that, if resources are limited, prevention measures should be targeted in priority towards neighborhoods of lower socioeconomic status.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raphaël M. Zellweger
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases Expertise and Research Unit, Institut Pasteur in New Caledonia, Institut Pasteur International Network, Nouméa, New Caledonia
- * E-mail:
| | - Jorge Cano
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Morgan Mangeas
- IRD, UMR ESPACE-DEV (UR/UA/UG/UM/IRD), Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | - François Taglioni
- University of Reunion Island, UMR Prodig/OIES (Cregur), Reunion Island, France
| | - Alizé Mercier
- IRD, UMR ESPACE-DEV (UR/UA/UG/UM/IRD), Nouméa, New Caledonia
- CIRAD/INRA, UMR Contrôle des Maladies Animales Exotiques et Emergentes (CMAEE), Montpellier, France
| | - Marc Despinoy
- IRD, UMR ESPACE-DEV (UR/UA/UG/UM/IRD), Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | - Christophe E. Menkès
- IRD / Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Université Paris 06) / CNRS / MNHN, LOCEAN – UMR 7159, Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | - Myrielle Dupont-Rouzeyrol
- Dengue and Arboviruses Expertise and Research Unit, Institut Pasteur in New Caledonia, Institut Pasteur International Network, Noumea, New Caledonia
| | - Birgit Nikolay
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
- CNRS, URA3012, Paris, France
- Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Magali Teurlai
- Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases Expertise and Research Unit, Institut Pasteur in New Caledonia, Institut Pasteur International Network, Nouméa, New Caledonia
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Epidemiological Characteristics of Dengue Disease in Latin America and in the Caribbean: A Systematic Review of the Literature. J Trop Med 2017; 2017:8045435. [PMID: 28392806 PMCID: PMC5368385 DOI: 10.1155/2017/8045435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2016] [Revised: 01/31/2017] [Accepted: 02/21/2017] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue, an important mosquito-borne virus transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti, is a major public health issue in Latin America and the Caribbean. National epidemiological surveillance systems, usually based on passive detection of symptomatic cases, while underestimating the true burden of dengue disease, can provide valuable insight into disease trends and excess reporting and potential outbreaks. We carried out a systematic review of the literature to characterize the recent epidemiology of dengue disease in Latin America and the English-speaking and Hispanic Caribbean Islands. We identified 530 articles, 60 of which met criteria for inclusion. In general, dengue seropositivity across the region was high and increased with age. All four virus serotypes were reported to circulate in the region. These observations varied considerably between and within countries and over time, potentially due to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity) and their effect on mosquito densities and differences in socioeconomic factors. This review provides important insight into the major epidemiological characteristics of dengue in distinct regions of Latin America and the Caribbean, allowing gaps in current knowledge and future research needs to be identified.
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What caused the 2012 dengue outbreak in Pucallpa, Peru? A socio-ecological autopsy. Soc Sci Med 2016; 174:122-132. [PMID: 28024241 DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2016.12.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2016] [Revised: 11/21/2016] [Accepted: 12/07/2016] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
Dengue is highly endemic in Peru, with increases in transmission particularly since vector re-infestation of the country in the 1980s. Pucallpa, the second largest city in the Peruvian Amazon, experienced a large outbreak in 2012 that caused more than 10,000 cases and 13 deaths. To date, there has been limited research on dengue in the Peruvian Amazon outside of Iquitos, and no published review or critical analysis of the 2012 Pucallpa dengue outbreak. This study describes the incidence, surveillance, and control of dengue in Ucayali to understand the factors that contributed to the 2012 Pucallpa outbreak. We employed a socio-ecological autopsy approach to consider distal and proximal contributing factors, drawing on existing literature and interviews with key personnel involved in dengue control, surveillance and treatment in Ucayali. Spatio-temporal analysis showed that relative risk of dengue was higher in the northern districts of Calleria (RR = 2.18), Manantay (RR = 1.49) and Yarinacocha (RR = 1.25) compared to all other districts between 2004 and 2014. The seasonal occurrence of the 2012 outbreak is consistent with typical seasonal patterns for dengue incidence in the region. Our assessment suggests that the outbreak was proximally triggered by the introduction of a new virus serotype (DENV-2 Asian/America) to the region. Increased travel, rapid urbanization, and inadequate water management facilitated the potential for virus spread and transmission, both within Pucallpa and regionally. These triggers occurred within the context of failures in surveillance and control programming, including underfunded and ad hoc vector control. These findings have implications for future prevention and control of dengue in Ucayali as new diseases such as chikungunya and Zika threaten the region.
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Karl S, White MT, Milne GJ, Gurarie D, Hay SI, Barry AE, Felger I, Mueller I. Spatial Effects on the Multiplicity of Plasmodium falciparum Infections. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0164054. [PMID: 27711149 PMCID: PMC5053403 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2016] [Accepted: 09/19/2016] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
As malaria is being pushed back on many frontiers and global case numbers are declining, accurate measurement and prediction of transmission becomes increasingly difficult. Low transmission settings are characterised by high levels of spatial heterogeneity, which stands in stark contrast to the widely used assumption of spatially homogeneous transmission used in mathematical transmission models for malaria. In the present study an individual-based mathematical malaria transmission model that incorporates multiple parasite clones, variable human exposure and duration of infection, limited mosquito flight distance and most importantly geographically heterogeneous human and mosquito population densities was used to illustrate the differences between homogeneous and heterogeneous transmission assumptions when aiming to predict surrogate indicators of transmission intensity such as population parasite prevalence or multiplicity of infection (MOI). In traditionally highly malaria endemic regions where most of the population harbours malaria parasites, humans are often infected with multiple parasite clones. However, studies have shown also in areas with low overall parasite prevalence, infection with multiple parasite clones is a common occurrence. Mathematical models assuming homogeneous transmission between humans and mosquitoes cannot explain these observations. Heterogeneity of transmission can arise from many factors including acquired immunity, body size and occupational exposure. In this study, we show that spatial heterogeneity has a profound effect on predictions of MOI and parasite prevalence. We illustrate, that models assuming homogeneous transmission underestimate average MOI in low transmission settings when compared to field data and that spatially heterogeneous models predict stable transmission at much lower overall parasite prevalence. Therefore it is very important that models used to guide malaria surveillance and control strategies in low transmission and elimination settings take into account the spatial features of the specific target area, including human and mosquito vector distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephan Karl
- Population-Based Biology Division, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Medical Biology, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Vector-borne Diseases Unit, Papua New Guinea Insititute of Medical Research, Madang, Madang Province, Papua New Guinea
- * E-mail:
| | - Michael T. White
- Population-Based Biology Division, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
| | - George J. Milne
- School of Computer Science and Software Engineering, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - David Gurarie
- Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, United States of America
| | - Simon I. Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Alyssa E. Barry
- Population-Based Biology Division, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Medical Biology, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ingrid Felger
- Department of Medical Parasitology and Infection Biology Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Ivo Mueller
- Population-Based Biology Division, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Medical Biology, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Malaria: Parasites and Hosts Unit, Department of Parasites & Insect Vectors, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
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Reiner RC, Achee N, Barrera R, Burkot TR, Chadee DD, Devine GJ, Endy T, Gubler D, Hombach J, Kleinschmidt I, Lenhart A, Lindsay SW, Longini I, Mondy M, Morrison AC, Perkins TA, Vazquez-Prokopec G, Reiter P, Ritchie SA, Smith DL, Strickman D, Scott TW. Quantifying the Epidemiological Impact of Vector Control on Dengue. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2016; 10:e0004588. [PMID: 27227829 PMCID: PMC4881945 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Robert C. Reiner
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University Bloomington School of Public Health, Bloomington, Indiana, United States of America
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Nicole Achee
- Department of Biological Sciences, Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Roberto Barrera
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Thomas R. Burkot
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia
| | - Dave D. Chadee
- Department of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science and Agriculture, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Gregor J. Devine
- QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Timothy Endy
- Department of Medicine, Upstate Medical University of New York, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
| | - Duane Gubler
- Signature Research Program in Emerging Infectious Disease, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore
| | - Joachim Hombach
- Initiative for Vaccine Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Immo Kleinschmidt
- Tropical Epidemiology Group, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Pathology, School of Health Sciences, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Audrey Lenhart
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Center for Global Health/Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria/Entomology Branch, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Steven W. Lindsay
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
- School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom
| | - Ira Longini
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | | | - Amy C. Morrison
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - T. Alex Perkins
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
- Department of Biological Sciences, Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Gonzalo Vazquez-Prokopec
- Department of Environmental Studies, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Paul Reiter
- Department of Medical Entomology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Scott A. Ritchie
- College of Public Health, Medical, and Veterinary Sciences, Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia
| | - David L. Smith
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Daniel Strickman
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Thomas W. Scott
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
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Waggoner JJ, Balmaseda A, Gresh L, Sahoo MK, Montoya M, Wang C, Abeynayake J, Kuan G, Pinsky BA, Harris E. Homotypic Dengue Virus Reinfections in Nicaraguan Children. J Infect Dis 2016; 214:986-93. [PMID: 26984144 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiw099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 90] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2015] [Accepted: 02/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Infection with any of the 4 related dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1-4) is thought to result in lifelong immunity to homotypic reinfection (ie, reinfection with the same serotype). METHODS Archived serum samples collected as part of an ongoing pediatric dengue cohort study in Nicaragua were tested for DENV by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Samples were collected from 2892 children who presented with an acute febrile illness clinically attributed to a non-DENV cause (hereafter, "C cases"). Test results were added to a database of previously identified symptomatic dengue cases in the cohort to identify repeat infections. RESULTS Four patients with homotypic DENV reinfections were identified and confirmed among 29 repeat DENV infections (13.8%) with serotype confirmation. Homotypic reinfections with DENV-1, DENV-2, and DENV-3 occurred 325-621 days after the initial infection. Each patient experienced 1 symptomatic dengue case and 1 DENV-positive C case, and 2 patients presented with symptomatic dengue during their second infection. These DENV-positive C cases did not elicit long-lived humoral immune responses, despite viremia levels of up to 6.44 log10 copies per mL of serum. CONCLUSIONS We describe the first set of virologically confirmed homotypic DENV reinfections. Such cases challenge the current understanding of DENV immunity and have important implications for modeling DENV transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesse J Waggoner
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine
| | - Angel Balmaseda
- National Virology Laboratory, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia
| | - Lionel Gresh
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Malaya K Sahoo
- Department of Pathology, Stanford University School of Medicine
| | - Magelda Montoya
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley
| | - Chunling Wang
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley
| | | | | | - Benjamin A Pinsky
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine Department of Pathology, Stanford University School of Medicine
| | - Eva Harris
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley
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Incomplete Protection against Dengue Virus Type 2 Re-infection in Peru. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2016; 10:e0004398. [PMID: 26848841 PMCID: PMC4746126 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 76] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2015] [Accepted: 12/29/2015] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Nearly half of the world’s population is at risk for dengue, yet no licensed vaccine or anti-viral drug is currently available. Dengue is caused by any of four dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 through DENV-4), and infection by a DENV serotype is assumed to provide life-long protection against re-infection by that serotype. We investigated the validity of this fundamental assumption during a large dengue epidemic caused by DENV-2 in Iquitos, Peru, in 2010–2011, 15 years after the first outbreak of DENV-2 in the region. Methodology/Principal Findings We estimated the age-dependent prevalence of serotype-specific DENV antibodies from longitudinal cohort studies conducted between 1993 and 2010. During the 2010–2011 epidemic, active dengue cases were identified through active community- and clinic-based febrile surveillance studies, and acute inapparent DENV infections were identified through contact tracing studies. Based on the age-specific prevalence of DENV-2 neutralizing antibodies, the age distribution of DENV-2 cases was markedly older than expected. Homologous protection was estimated at 35.1% (95% confidence interval: 0%–65.2%). At the individual level, pre-existing DENV-2 antibodies were associated with an incomplete reduction in the frequency of symptoms. Among dengue cases, 43% (26/66) exhibited elevated DENV-2 neutralizing antibody titers for years prior to infection, compared with 76% (13/17) of inapparent infections (age-adjusted odds ratio: 4.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.1–17.7). Conclusions/Significance Our data indicate that protection from homologous DENV re-infection may be incomplete in some circumstances, which provides context for the limited vaccine efficacy against DENV-2 in recent trials. Further studies are warranted to confirm this phenomenon and to evaluate the potential role of incomplete homologous protection in DENV transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral illness that imposes a tremendous public health burden on tropical and sub-tropical regions. An estimated 390 million infections occur globally each year, and up to 4 billion people are at risk. Dengue is caused by four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4). Infection with any DENV can lead to a range of disease outcomes, from mild febrile illness to severe, hemorrhagic manifestations and death. Infection by one serotype has been assume to provide complete and lifelong protection against re-infection by the same serotype, and to our knowledge, instances of re-infection by the same serotype have not been rigorously documented. However, few long-term studies have been conducted in such a way that re-infection by the same serotype could be observed, if it did in fact occur. Our study provides evidence that re-infection may occur in certain circumstances. We draw from data collected during a 2010–2011 DENV-2 epidemic in northeastern Peru, 15 years after the initial DENV-2 outbreak in the region. This finding has significant implications for our understanding of dengue epidemiology and for dengue vaccine formulation, which may need to consider multiple genotypes of each serotype. Data from other long-term dengue epidemiology studies should be analyzed to determine if homologous re-infection is a more widespread phenomenon.
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Costa JV, Silveira LVDA, Donalísio MR. Análise espacial de dados de contagem com excesso de zeros aplicado ao estudo da incidência de dengue em Campinas, São Paulo, Brasil. CAD SAUDE PUBLICA 2016; 32:e00036915. [DOI: 10.1590/0102-311x00036915] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2015] [Accepted: 04/06/2016] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Resumo: A incidência de dengue ocorre predominantemente em áreas urbanas das cidades. Identificar o padrão de distribuição espacial da doença no nível local contribui na formulação de estratégias de controle e prevenção da doença. A análise espacial de dados de contagem para pequenas áreas comumente viola as suposições dos modelos tradicionais de Poisson, devido à quantidade excessiva de zeros. Neste estudo, comparou-se o desempenho de quatro modelos de contagem utilizados no mapeamento de doenças: Poisson, Binomial negativa, Poisson inflacionado de zeros e Binomial negativa inflacionado de zeros. Os métodos foram comparados em um estudo de simulação. Os modelos analisados no estudo de simulação foram aplicados em um estudo ecológico espacial, aos dados de dengue agregados por setores censitários, do Município de Campinas, São Paulo, Brasil, em 2007. A análise espacial foi conduzida por modelos hierárquicos bayesianos. O modelo de Poisson inflacionado de zeros apresentou melhor desempenho para estimar o risco relativo de incidência de dengue nos setores censitários.
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Teurlai M, Menkès CE, Cavarero V, Degallier N, Descloux E, Grangeon JP, Guillaumot L, Libourel T, Lucio PS, Mathieu-Daudé F, Mangeas M. Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2015; 9:e0004211. [PMID: 26624008 PMCID: PMC4666598 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2014] [Accepted: 10/13/2015] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. METHODS We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. RESULTS The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3 °C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. CONCLUSION In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Magali Teurlai
- Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur, Noumea, New Caledonia
- UMR 228, ESPACE-DEV, Institute for Research and Development (IRD), Noumea, New Caledonia
- UMR 182, LOCEAN, Institute for Research and Development (IRD), Noumea, New Caledonia
- * E-mail:
| | | | | | - Nicolas Degallier
- UMR 182, Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat, Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institute for Research and Development (IRD), Paris, France
| | - Elodie Descloux
- Department of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Territorial Hospital Centre, Noumea, New Caledonia
| | - Jean-Paul Grangeon
- Health Department, Direction of Health and Social Affairs of New Caledonia, Noumea, New Caledonia
| | | | - Thérèse Libourel
- UMR 228, ESPACE-DEV, Université de Montpellier II, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Paulo Sergio Lucio
- Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Terra (CCET), Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), Campus Universitário—Lagoa Nova, Brazil
| | | | - Morgan Mangeas
- UMR 228, ESPACE-DEV, Université de Montpellier II, IRD, Montpellier, France
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Paz-Soldán VA, Morrison AC, Cordova Lopez JJ, Lenhart A, Scott TW, Elder JP, Sihuincha M, Kochel TJ, Halsey ES, Astete H, McCall PJ. Dengue Knowledge and Preventive Practices in Iquitos, Peru. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2015; 93:1330-1337. [PMID: 26503276 PMCID: PMC4674254 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.15-0096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2015] [Accepted: 08/07/2015] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
As part of a cluster-randomized trial to evaluate insecticide-treated curtains for dengue prevention in Iquitos, Peru, we surveyed 1,333 study participants to examine knowledge and reported practices associated with dengue and its prevention. Entomological data from 1,133 of these households were linked to the survey. Most participants knew that dengue was transmitted by mosquito bite (85.6%), but only few (18.6%) knew that dengue vectors bite during daytime. Most commonly recognized dengue symptoms were fever (86.6%), headache (76.4%), and muscle/joint pain (67.9%). Most commonly reported correct practices for mosquito control were cleaning homes (61.6%), using insecticide sprays (23%), and avoiding having standing water at home (12.3%). Higher education was associated with higher knowledge about dengue, including transmission and vector control. Higher socioeconomic status was associated with increased reported use of preventive practices requiring money expenditure. We were less likely to find Aedes aegypti eggs, larvae, or pupae in households that had < 5-year-old children at home. Although dengue has been transmitted in Iquitos since the 1990s and the Regional Health Authority routinely fumigates households, treats domestic water containers with larvicide, and issues health education messages through mass media, knowledge of dengue transmission and household practices for prevention could be improved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valerie A. Paz-Soldán
- *Address correspondence to Valerie A. Paz-Soldán, Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences Department, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, 1440 Canal Street, Suite 2200, New Orleans, LA 70112. E-mail:
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Perkins TA, Garcia AJ, Paz-Soldán VA, Stoddard ST, Reiner RC, Vazquez-Prokopec G, Bisanzio D, Morrison AC, Halsey ES, Kochel TJ, Smith DL, Kitron U, Scott TW, Tatem AJ. Theory and data for simulating fine-scale human movement in an urban environment. J R Soc Interface 2015; 11:rsif.2014.0642. [PMID: 25142528 PMCID: PMC4233749 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2014.0642] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Individual-based models of infectious disease transmission depend on accurate quantification of fine-scale patterns of human movement. Existing models of movement either pertain to overly coarse scales, simulate some aspects of movement but not others, or were designed specifically for populations in developed countries. Here, we propose a generalizable framework for simulating the locations that an individual visits, time allocation across those locations, and population-level variation therein. As a case study, we fit alternative models for each of five aspects of movement (number, distance from home and types of locations visited; frequency and duration of visits) to interview data from 157 residents of the city of Iquitos, Peru. Comparison of alternative models showed that location type and distance from home were significant determinants of the locations that individuals visited and how much time they spent there. We also found that for most locations, residents of two neighbourhoods displayed indistinguishable preferences for visiting locations at various distances, despite differing distributions of locations around those neighbourhoods. Finally, simulated patterns of time allocation matched the interview data in a number of ways, suggesting that our framework constitutes a sound basis for simulating fine-scale movement and for investigating factors that influence it.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Alex Perkins
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Andres J Garcia
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Valerie A Paz-Soldán
- Department of Global Health Systems and Development, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Steven T Stoddard
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | | | - Donal Bisanzio
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Amy C Morrison
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Eric S Halsey
- United States Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima, Peru
| | | | - David L Smith
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA Malaria Research Institute, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Uriel Kitron
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Thomas W Scott
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Andrew J Tatem
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden
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Martelli CMT, Siqueira JB, Parente MPPD, Zara ALDSA, Oliveira CS, Braga C, Pimenta FG, Cortes F, Lopez JG, Bahia LR, Mendes MCO, da Rosa MQM, de Siqueira Filha NT, Constenla D, de Souza WV. Economic Impact of Dengue: Multicenter Study across Four Brazilian Regions. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2015; 9:e0004042. [PMID: 26402905 PMCID: PMC4581827 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2015] [Accepted: 08/08/2015] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue is an increasing public health concern in Brazil. There is a need for an updated evaluation of the economic impact of dengue within the country. We undertook this multicenter study to evaluate the economic burden of dengue in Brazil. METHODS We estimated the economic burden of dengue in Brazil for the years 2009 to 2013 and for the epidemic season of August 2012- September 2013. We conducted a multicenter cohort study across four endemic regions: Midwest, Goiania; Southeast, Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro; Northeast: Teresina and Recife; and the North, Belem. Ambulatory or hospitalized cases with suspected or laboratory-confirmed dengue treated in both the private and public sectors were recruited. Interviews were scheduled for the convalescent period to ascertain characteristics of the dengue episode, date of first symptoms/signs and recovery, use of medical services, work/school absence, household spending (out-of-pocket expense) and income lost using a questionnaire developed for a previous cost study. We also extracted data from the patients' medical records for hospitalized cases. Overall costs per case and cumulative costs were calculated from the public payer and societal perspectives. National cost estimations took into account cases reported in the official notification system (SINAN) with adjustment for underreporting of cases. We applied a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with 90% certainty levels (CL). RESULTS We screened 2,223 cases, of which 2,035 (91.5%) symptomatic dengue cases were included in our study. The estimated cost for dengue for the epidemic season (2012-2013) in the societal perspective was US$ 468 million (90% CL: 349-590) or US$ 1,212 million (90% CL: 904-1,526) after adjusting for under-reporting. Considering the time series of dengue (2009-2013) the estimated cost of dengue varied from US$ 371 million (2009) to US$ 1,228 million (2013). CONCLUSIONS The economic burden associated with dengue in Brazil is substantial with large variations in reported cases and consequently costs reflecting the dynamic of dengue transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Celina Maria Turchi Martelli
- Department of Public Health, Aggeu Magalhaes Research Centre, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Brazil
- Department of Community Health, Institute of Tropical Pathology and Public Health, Federal University of Goias, Goiania, Brazil
| | - Joao Bosco Siqueira
- Department of Community Health, Institute of Tropical Pathology and Public Health, Federal University of Goias, Goiania, Brazil
| | | | - Ana Laura de Sene Amancio Zara
- Department of Community Health, Institute of Tropical Pathology and Public Health, Federal University of Goias, Goiania, Brazil
| | | | - Cynthia Braga
- Department of Public Health, Aggeu Magalhaes Research Centre, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Brazil
| | - Fabiano Geraldo Pimenta
- Department of Health Surveillance, Secretaria Municipal Saude Belo Horizonte, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Fanny Cortes
- Department of Health Science, Universidade de Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil
| | - Juan Guillermo Lopez
- Health Economics and Market Access, Sanofi Pasteur Latin America, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Luciana Ribeiro Bahia
- Department of Internal Medicine, State University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Dagna Constenla
- Department of International Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Wayner Vieira de Souza
- Department of Public Health, Aggeu Magalhaes Research Centre, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Brazil
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Yori PP, Lee G, Olórtegui MP, Chávez CB, Flores JT, Vasquez AO, Burga R, Pinedo SR, Asayag CR, Black RE, Caulfield LE, Kosek M. Santa Clara de Nanay: the MAL-ED cohort in Peru. Clin Infect Dis 2015; 59 Suppl 4:S310-6. [PMID: 25305303 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciu460] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
The Etiology, Risk Factors and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) cohort study communities in Peru are located in Loreto province, in a rural area 15 km from the city of Iquitos. This riverine population of approximately 5000 individuals is fairly representative of Loreto. The province lags behind the rest of the country in access to water and sanitation, per capita income, and key health indicators including infant mortality (43.0 vs 16.0 per 1000 nationwide) and under-5 mortality (60.6 vs 21.0 per 1000). Total fertility rates are higher than elsewhere in the country (4.3 vs 2.6). Nationwide, the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus is estimated at 0.45%, the prevalence of tuberculosis is 117 per 100 000, and the incidence of malaria is 258 per 100 000. Stunting in this community is high, whereas acute undernutrition is relatively uncommon. The population suffers from high rates of diarrheal disease. Prevalent enteric pathogens include Ascaris, Giardia, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, Shigella, and Campylobacter.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pablo Peñataro Yori
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland Asociación Benéfica PRISMA, Unidad de Investigaciones Biomédicas
| | - Gwenyth Lee
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Maribel Paredes Olórtegui
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland Asociación Benéfica PRISMA, Unidad de Investigaciones Biomédicas
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Robert E Black
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Laura E Caulfield
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Margaret Kosek
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland Asociación Benéfica PRISMA, Unidad de Investigaciones Biomédicas
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Undurraga EA, Betancourt-Cravioto M, Ramos-Castañeda J, Martínez-Vega R, Méndez-Galván J, Gubler DJ, Guzmán MG, Halstead SB, Harris E, Kuri-Morales P, Tapia-Conyer R, Shepard DS. Economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2015; 9:e0003547. [PMID: 25786225 PMCID: PMC4364886 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003547] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2014] [Accepted: 01/17/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue imposes a substantial economic and disease burden in most tropical and subtropical countries. Dengue incidence and severity have dramatically increased in Mexico during the past decades. Having objective and comparable estimates of the economic burden of dengue is essential to inform health policy, increase disease awareness, and assess the impact of dengue prevention and control technologies. METHODS AND FINDINGS We estimated the annual economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico for the years 2010-2011. We merged multiple data sources, including a prospective cohort study; patient interviews and macro-costing from major hospitals; surveillance, budget, and health data from the Ministry of Health; WHO cost estimates; and available literature. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to derive 95% certainty levels (CL) for our estimates. Results suggest that Mexico had about 139,000 (95%CL: 128,000-253,000) symptomatic and 119 (95%CL: 75-171) fatal dengue episodes annually on average (2010-2011), compared to an average of 30,941 symptomatic and 59 fatal dengue episodes reported. The annual cost, including surveillance and vector control, was US$170 (95%CL: 151-292) million, or $1.56 (95%CL: 1.38-2.68) per capita, comparable to other countries in the region. Of this, $87 (95%CL: 87-209) million or $0.80 per capita (95%CL: 0.62-1.12) corresponds to illness. Annual disease burden averaged 65 (95%CL: 36-99) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per million population. Inclusion of long-term sequelae, co-morbidities, impact on tourism, and health system disruption during outbreaks would further increase estimated economic and disease burden. CONCLUSION With this study, Mexico joins Panama, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, and Thailand as the only countries or areas worldwide with comprehensive (illness and preventive) empirical estimates of dengue burden. Burden varies annually; during an outbreak, dengue burden may be significantly higher than that of the pre-vaccine level of rotavirus diarrhea. In sum, Mexico's potential economic benefits from dengue control would be substantial.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eduardo A. Undurraga
- Schneider Institutes for Health Policy, Heller School, Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | | | - José Ramos-Castañeda
- Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Mexico
- Center for Tropical Diseases, University of Texas-Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Ruth Martínez-Vega
- Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Mexico
- Organización Latinoamericana para el Fomento de la Investigación en Salud, Bucaramanga, Colombia
| | | | | | | | - Scott B. Halstead
- Pediatric Dengue Vaccine Initiative, Rockville, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Eva Harris
- University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | | | | | - Donald S. Shepard
- Schneider Institutes for Health Policy, Heller School, Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Pepin KM, Leach CB, Marques-Toledo C, Laass KH, Paixao KS, Luis AD, Hayman DTS, Johnson NG, Buhnerkempe MG, Carver S, Grear DA, Tsao K, Eiras AE, Webb CT. Utility of mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control against dengue viruses in three Brazilian cities. Parasit Vectors 2015; 8:98. [PMID: 25889533 PMCID: PMC4335543 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-015-0659-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2014] [Accepted: 01/12/2015] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Vector control remains the primary defense against dengue fever. Its success relies on the assumption that vector density is related to disease transmission. Two operational issues include the amount by which mosquito density should be reduced to minimize transmission and the spatio-temporal allotment of resources needed to reduce mosquito density in a cost-effective manner. Recently, a novel technology, MI-Dengue, was implemented city-wide in several Brazilian cities to provide real-time mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control resources. We sought to understand the role of city-wide mosquito density data in predicting disease incidence in order to provide guidance for prioritization of vector control work. Methods We used hierarchical Bayesian regression modeling to examine the role of city-wide vector surveillance data in predicting human cases of dengue fever in space and time. We used four years of weekly surveillance data from Vitoria city, Brazil, to identify the best model structure. We tested effects of vector density, lagged case data and spatial connectivity. We investigated the generality of the best model using an additional year of data from Vitoria and two years of data from other Brazilian cities: Governador Valadares and Sete Lagoas. Results We found that city-wide, neighborhood-level averages of household vector density were a poor predictor of dengue-fever cases in the absence of accounting for interactions with human cases. Effects of city-wide spatial patterns were stronger than within-neighborhood or nearest-neighborhood effects. Readily available proxies of spatial relationships between human cases, such as economic status, population density or between-neighborhood roadway distance, did not explain spatial patterns in cases better than unweighted global effects. Conclusions For spatial prioritization of vector controls, city-wide spatial effects should be given more weight than within-neighborhood or nearest-neighborhood connections, in order to minimize city-wide cases of dengue fever. More research is needed to determine which data could best inform city-wide connectivity. Once these data become available, MI-dengue may be even more effective if vector control is spatially prioritized by considering city-wide connectivity between cases together with information on the location of mosquito density and infected mosquitos. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-0659-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kim M Pepin
- Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, 20892, USA. .,United States Department of Agriculture, National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, 4101 Laporte Ave, Fort Collins, CO, 80521, USA. .,Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, USA.
| | - Clint B Leach
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, USA.
| | | | - Karla H Laass
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Pres. Antonio Carlos, 6627, Pampulha, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
| | - Kelly S Paixao
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Pres. Antonio Carlos, 6627, Pampulha, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
| | - Angela D Luis
- Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, 20892, USA. .,Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, USA. .,Current address: Department of Wildlife Biology, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, 59812, USA.
| | - David T S Hayman
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, USA. .,Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, 32611, USA. .,Current address: EpiLab, Infectious Disease research Centre (IDReC), Hopkirk Research Institute, Institute of Veterinary, Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, Manawatu, New Zealand.
| | - Nels G Johnson
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, USA.
| | - Michael G Buhnerkempe
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, USA. .,Current address: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, 90095, USA.
| | - Scott Carver
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, USA. .,School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7000, Australia.
| | - Daniel A Grear
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, USA.
| | - Kimberly Tsao
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, USA.
| | - Alvaro E Eiras
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Pres. Antonio Carlos, 6627, Pampulha, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
| | - Colleen T Webb
- Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, 20892, USA. .,Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, USA.
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Sharp TM, Roth NM, Torres J, Ryff KR, Pérez Rodríguez NM, Mercado C, del Pilar Diaz Padró M, Ramos M, Phillips R, Lozier M, Arriola CS, Johansson M, Hunsperger E, Muñoz-Jordán JL, Margolis HS, García BR. Chikungunya cases identified through passive surveillance and household investigations--Puerto Rico, May 5-August 12, 2014. MMWR. MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY WEEKLY REPORT 2014; 63:1121-8. [PMID: 25474032 PMCID: PMC4584601] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022]
Abstract
Chikungunya and dengue are mosquito-borne, viral, acute febrile illnesses that can be difficult to distinguish clinically. Whereas dengue is endemic in many countries in the Caribbean and the Americas, the first locally acquired chikungunya case in the Western Hemisphere was reported from the Caribbean island of St. Martin in December 2013 and was soon followed by cases in many parts of the region. In January 2014, the Puerto Rico Department of Health (PRDH) and CDC initiated chikungunya surveillance by building on an existing passive dengue surveillance system. To assess the extent of chikungunya in Puerto Rico, the severity of illnesses, and the health care-seeking behaviors of residents, PRDH and CDC analyzed data from passive surveillance and investigations conducted around the households of laboratory-positive chikungunya patients. Passive surveillance indicated that the first locally acquired, laboratory-positive chikungunya case in Puerto Rico was in a patient with illness onset on May 5, 2014. By August 12, a total of 10,201 suspected chikungunya cases (282 per 100,000 residents) had been reported. Specimens from 2,910 suspected cases were tested, and 1,975 (68%) were positive for chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection. Four deaths were reported. The household investigations found that, of 250 participants, 70 (28%) tested positive for current or recent CHIKV infection, including 59 (84%) who reported illness within the preceding 3 months. Of 25 laboratory-positive participants that sought medical care, five (20%) were diagnosed with chikungunya and two (8%) were reported to PRDH. These investigative efforts indicated that chikungunya cases were underrecognized and underreported, prompting PRDH to conduct information campaigns to increase knowledge of the disease among health care professionals and the public. PRDH and CDC recommended that health care providers manage suspected chikungunya cases as they do dengue because of the similarities in symptoms and increased risk for complications in dengue patients that are not appropriately managed. Residents of and travelers to the tropics can minimize their risk for both chikungunya and dengue by taking standard measures to avoid mosquito bites.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tyler M. Sharp
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, CDC,Corresponding author: Tyler M. Sharp, , 787-706-2399
| | - Nicole M. Roth
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, CDC
| | - Jomil Torres
- Office of Epidemiology, Puerto Rico Department of Health
| | - Kyle R. Ryff
- Office of Epidemiology, Puerto Rico Department of Health
| | - Nicole M. Pérez Rodríguez
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, CDC
| | - Chanis Mercado
- Office of Epidemiology, Puerto Rico Department of Health
| | | | - Maria Ramos
- Office of Epidemiology, Puerto Rico Department of Health
| | - Raina Phillips
- Division of Environmental Hazards and Health Effects, National Center for Environmental Health, CDC,Epidemic Intelligence Service, CDC
| | - Matthew Lozier
- Epidemic Intelligence Service, CDC,Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC
| | - Carmen S. Arriola
- Epidemic Intelligence Service, CDC,Division of Global Health Protection, Center for Global Health, CDC
| | - Michael Johansson
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, CDC
| | - Elizabeth Hunsperger
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, CDC
| | - Jorge L. Muñoz-Jordán
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, CDC
| | - Harold S. Margolis
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, CDC
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Kauhl B, Pilot E, Rao R, Gruebner O, Schweikart J, Krafft T. Estimating the spatial distribution of acute undifferentiated fever (AUF) and associated risk factors using emergency call data in India. A symptom-based approach for public health surveillance. Health Place 2014; 31:111-9. [PMID: 25463924 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2014.11.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2014] [Revised: 09/22/2014] [Accepted: 11/02/2014] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Abstract
The System for Early-warning based on Emergency Data (SEED) is a pilot project to evaluate the use of emergency call data with the main complaint acute undifferentiated fever (AUF) for syndromic surveillance in India. While spatio-temporal methods provide signals to detect potential disease outbreaks, additional information about socio-ecological exposure factors and the main population at risk is necessary for evidence-based public health interventions and future preparedness strategies. The goal of this study is to investigate whether a spatial epidemiological analysis at the ecological level provides information on urban-rural inequalities, socio-ecological exposure factors and the main population at risk for AUF. Our results displayed higher risks in rural areas with strong local variation. Household industries and proximity to forests were the main socio-ecological exposure factors and scheduled tribes were the main population at risk for AUF. These results provide additional information for syndromic surveillance and could be used for evidence-based public health interventions and future preparedness strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Boris Kauhl
- Department of International Health, CAPHRI School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences. Maastricht University, The Netherlands.
| | - Eva Pilot
- Department of Health, Ethics & Society, CAPHRI School of Public Health and Primary Care, Maastricht University, The Netherlands
| | - Ramana Rao
- GVK Emergency Management Reseach Institute, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India
| | - Oliver Gruebner
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University, NY, United States
| | - Jürgen Schweikart
- Beuth University of Applied Sciences, Department III, Civil Engineering and Geoinformatics, Berlin, Germany
| | - Thomas Krafft
- Department of International Health, CAPHRI School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences. Maastricht University, The Netherlands; Institute of Environment Education and Research, Bharati Vidyapeeth University, Pune, India
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