Drought-induced amplification of local and regional West Nile virus infection rates in New Jersey

Existing Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Drought and Health Research

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Drought is one of the most far-reaching natural disasters, yet drought and health research is sparse. This may be attributed to the challenge of quantifying drought exposure, something complicated by multiple drought indices without any designed for health research. The purpose of this general review is to evaluate current drought and health literature and highlight challenges or scientific considerations when performing drought exposure and health assessments.

RECENT FINDINGS

The literature revealed a small, but growing, number of drought and health studies primarily emphasizing Australian, western European, and US populations. The selection of drought indices and definitions of drought are inconsistent. Rural and agricultural populations have been identified as vulnerable cohorts, particularly for mental health outcomes. Using relevant examples, we discuss the importance of characterizing drought and explore why health outcomes, populations of interest, and compound environmental hazards are crucial considerations for drought and health assessments. As climate and health research is prioritized, we propose guidance for investigators performing drought-focused analyses.

Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed flavivirus causing encephalitis globally, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The changing climate is poised to reshape the landscape of various infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne ones like WNV. Understanding the anticipated geographical and range shifts in disease transmission due to climate change, alongside effective adaptation strategies, is critical for mitigating future public health impacts. This scoping review aims to consolidate evidence on the impact of climate change on WNV and to identify a spectrum of applicable adaptation strategies.

MAIN BODY

We systematically analyzed research articles from PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and EBSCOhost. Our criteria included English-language research articles published between 2007 and 2023, focusing on the impacts of climate change on WNV and related adaptation strategies. We extracted data concerning study objectives, populations, geographical focus, and specific findings. Literature was categorized into two primary themes: 1) climate-WNV associations, and 2) climate change impacts on WNV transmission, providing a clear understanding. Out of 2168 articles reviewed, 120 met our criteria. Most evidence originated from North America (59.2%) and Europe (28.3%), with a primary focus on human cases (31.7%). Studies on climate-WNV correlations (n = 83) highlighted temperature (67.5%) as a pivotal climate factor. In the analysis of climate change impacts on WNV (n = 37), most evidence suggested that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, with the extent of the impact depending on local and regional conditions. Although few studies directly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies for climate-induced disease transmission, the proposed strategies (n = 49) fell into six categories: 1) surveillance and monitoring (38.8%), 2) predictive modeling (18.4%), 3) cross-disciplinary collaboration (16.3%), 4) environmental management (12.2%), 5) public education (8.2%), and 6) health system readiness (6.1%). Additionally, we developed an accessible online platform to summarize the evidence on climate change impacts on WNV transmission ( https://2xzl2o-neaop.shinyapps.io/WNVScopingReview/ ).

CONCLUSIONS

This review reveals that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, but the literature reflects only a small share of the global WNV dynamics. There is an urgent need for adaptive responses to anticipate and respond to the climate-driven spread of WNV. Nevertheless, studies focusing on these adaptation responses are sparse compared to those examining the impacts of climate change. Further research on the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for vector-borne diseases, along with more comprehensive evidence synthesis, is needed to inform effective policy responses tailored to local contexts.

Stressed snails release Angiostrongylus cantonensis (rat lungworm) larvae in their slime

This study investigated the influence of stress on release of Angiostrongylus cantonensis larvae from a snail host, Parmarion martensi. We subjected 140 infected, wild-caught P. martensi to three stress-inducing treatments (heat, molluscicide, physical disturbance) and an unstressed control treatment for 24 h, after which larval presence and abundance in the slime were quantified by qPCR targeting the ITS1 region of the parasite's DNA, and compared among treatments. The significance of stress and host infection load on larval release was determined by generalized linear mixed models and permutation tests. The results indicated that stress significantly increased the probability of larval presence in slime and the number of larvae released, and highly infected snails were also more likely to release larvae. Among stressed snails, 13.3% released larvae into slime, the number of larvae present in the slime ranging from 45.5 to 4216. Unstressed controls released no larvae. This study offers a partial explanation for conflicting results from prior studies regarding A. cantonensis presence in snail slime and sheds light on the broader One Health implications. Stress-induced larval release highlights the potential role of slime as a medium for pathogen transmission to accidental, paratenic, definitive and other intermediate hosts. These findings emphasize the importance of considering stress-mediated interactions in host-parasite systems and their implications for zoonotic disease emergence. As stressors continue to escalate because of anthropogenic activities and climate change, understanding the role of stress in pathogen shedding and transmission becomes increasingly important for safeguarding human and wildlife health within the One Health framework.

Impact of wars and natural disasters on emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases

Emerging Infectious Diseases (EIDs) and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases (REIDs) constitute significant health problems and are becoming of major importance. Up to 75% of EIDs and REIDs have zoonotic origin. Several factors such as the destruction of natural habitats leading humans and animals to live in close proximity, ecological changes due to natural disasters, population migration resulting from war or conflict, interruption or decrease in disease prevention programs, and insufficient vector control applications and sanitation are involved in disease emergence and distribution. War and natural disasters have a great impact on the emergence/re-emergence of diseases in the population. According to a World Bank estimation, two billion people are living in poverty and fragility situations. Wars destroy health systems and infrastructure, curtail existing disease control programs, and cause population movement leading to an increase in exposure to health risks and favor the emergence of infectious diseases. A total of 432 catastrophic cases associated with natural disasters were recorded globally in 2021. Natural disasters increase the risk of EID and REID outbreaks by damaging infrastructure and leading to displacement of populations. A Generic National Action Plan covering risk assessment, mechanism for action, determination of roles and responsibilities of each sector, the establishment of a coordination mechanism, etc. should be developed.

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement.

METHODS

We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill.

RESULTS

Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill.

CONCLUSIONS

Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases).

Both consumptive and non-consumptive effects of predators impact mosquito populations and have implications for disease transmission

Predator-prey interactions influence prey traits through both consumptive and non-consumptive effects, and variation in these traits can shape vector-borne disease dynamics. Meta-analysis methods were employed to generate predation effect sizes by different categories of predators and mosquito prey. This analysis showed that multiple families of aquatic predators are effective in consumptively reducing mosquito survival, and that the survival of Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex mosquitoes is negatively impacted by consumptive effects of predators. Mosquito larval size was found to play a more important role in explaining the heterogeneity of consumptive effects from predators than mosquito genus. Mosquito survival and body size were reduced by non-consumptive effects of predators, but development time was not significantly impacted. In addition, Culex vectors demonstrated predator avoidance behavior during oviposition. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that predators limit disease transmission by reducing both vector survival and vector size, and that associations between drought and human West Nile virus cases could be driven by the vector behavior of predator avoidance during oviposition. These findings are likely to be useful to infectious disease modelers who rely on vector traits as predictors of transmission.

Integrating Spatiotemporal Epidemiology, Eco-Phylogenetics, and Distributional Ecology to Assess West Nile Disease Risk in Horses

Mosquito-borne West Nile virus (WNV) is the causative agent of West Nile disease in humans, horses, and some bird species. Since the initial introduction of WNV to the United States (US), approximately 30,000 horses have been impacted by West Nile neurologic disease and hundreds of additional horses are infected each year. Research describing the drivers of West Nile disease in horses is greatly needed to better anticipate the spatial and temporal extent of disease risk, improve disease surveillance, and alleviate future economic impacts to the equine industry and private horse owners. To help meet this need, we integrated techniques from spatiotemporal epidemiology, eco-phylogenetics, and distributional ecology to assess West Nile disease risk in horses throughout the contiguous US. Our integrated approach considered horse abundance and virus exposure, vector and host distributions, and a variety of extrinsic climatic, socio-economic, and environmental risk factors. Birds are WNV reservoir hosts, and therefore we quantified avian host community dynamics across the continental US to show intra-annual variability in host phylogenetic structure and demonstrate host phylodiversity as a mechanism for virus amplification in time and virus dilution in space. We identified drought as a potential amplifier of virus transmission and demonstrated the importance of accounting for spatial non-stationarity when quantifying interaction between disease risk and meteorological influences such as temperature and precipitation. Our results delineated the timing and location of several areas at high risk of West Nile disease and can be used to prioritize vaccination programs and optimize virus surveillance and monitoring.

Light pollution affects West Nile virus exposure risk across Florida

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) present global health threats, and their emergences are often linked to anthropogenic change. Artificial light at night (ALAN) is one form of anthropogenic change that spans beyond urban boundaries and may be relevant to EIDs through its influence on the behaviour and physiology of hosts and/or vectors. Although West Nile virus (WNV) emergence has been described as peri-urban, we hypothesized that exposure risk could also be influenced by ALAN in particular, which is testable by comparing the effects of ALAN on prevalence while controlling for other aspects of urbanization. By modelling WNV exposure among sentinel chickens in Florida, we found strong support for a nonlinear relationship between ALAN and WNV exposure risk in chickens with peak WNV risk occurring at low ALAN levels. Although our goal was not to discern how ALAN affected WNV relative to other factors, effects of ALAN on WNV exposure were stronger than other known drivers of risk (i.e. impervious surface, human population density). Ambient temperature in the month prior to sampling, but no other considered variables, strongly influenced WNV risk. These results indicate that ALAN may contribute to spatio-temporal changes in WNV risk, justifying future investigations of ALAN on other vector-borne parasites.

Drought severity and all-cause mortality rates among adults in the United States: 1968-2014

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the effect of drought on all-cause mortality, especially in higher income countries such as the United States. As the frequency and severity of droughts are likely to increase, understanding the connections between drought and mortality becomes increasingly important.

METHODS

Our exposure variable was an annual cumulative drought severity score based on the 1-month, county-level Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. The outcome variables of demographic subgroup-specific all-cause mortality count data per year were obtained from the National Vital Statistics System. Any counts below 10 deaths were censored in that demographic group per county. We modeled county-stratum-year mortality using interval-censored negative binomial regression with county-level random intercepts, for each combined age-race-sex stratum either with or without further stratification by climate regions. Fixed effects meta-regression was used to test the associations between age, race, sex, and region with the drought-mortality regression coefficients. Predictive margins were then calculated from the meta-regression model to estimate larger subgroup (e.g., 'race' or 'sex') associations of drought with mortality.

RESULTS

Most of the results were null for associations between drought severity and mortality, across joint strata of race, age, sex and region, but incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for 17 subgroups were significant after accounting for the multiple testing; ten were < 1 indicating a possible protective effect of drought on mortality for that particular subpopulation. The meta-regression indicated heterogeneity in the association of drought with mortality according to race, climate region, and age, but not by sex. Marginal means of the estimated log-incidence rate ratios differed significantly from zero for age groups 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 and 55-64; for the white race group; and for the South, West and Southwest regions, in the analysis that included wet county-years. The margin of the meta-regression model suggested a slightly negative, but not statistically significant, association of drought with same-year mortality in the overall population.

CONCLUSIONS

There were significant, heterogeneous-direction associations in subpopulation-stratified models, after controlling for multiple comparisons, suggesting that the impacts of drought on mortality may not be monolithic across the United States. Meta-regression identified systematic differences in the associations of drought severity with all-cause mortality according to climate region, race, and age. These findings suggest there may be important contextual differences in the effects of drought severity on mortality, motivating further work focused on local mechanisms. We speculate that some of the estimated negative associations of drought severity with same-year mortality could be consistent with either a protective effect of drought on total mortality in the same year, or with a delayed health effect of drought beyond the same year. Further research is needed to clarify associations of drought with more specific causes of death and with sublethal health outcomes, for specific subpopulations, and considering lagged effects occurring beyond the same year as the drought.

The knowns and unknowns of West Nile virus in Europe: what did we learn from the 2018 outbreak?

Introduction: West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne human and animal pathogen with nearly worldwide distribution. In Europe, the virus is endemic with seasonal regional outbreaks that have increased in frequency over the last 10 years. A massive outbreak occurred across southern and central Europe in 2018 with the number of confirmed human cases increasing up to 7.2-fold from the previous year, and expanding to include previously virus-free regions.Areas covered: This review focuses on potential causes that may explain the 2018 European WNV outbreak. We discuss the role genetic, ecological, and environmental aspects may have played in the increased activity during the 2018 transmission season, summarizing the latest epidemiological and virological publications.Expert opinion: Optimal environmental conditions, specifically increased temperature, were most likely responsible for the observed outbreak. Other factors cannot be ruled out due to limited available information, including factors that may influence host/vector abundance and contact. Europe will likely experience even larger-scale outbreaks in the coming years. Increased surveillance efforts should be implemented with a focus on early-warning detection methods, and large-scale host and vector surveys should continue to fill gaps in knowledge.

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.

West Nile Virus Mosquito Vectors in North America

In North America, the geographic distribution, ecology, and vectorial capacity of a diverse assemblage of mosquito species belonging to the genus Culex determine patterns of West Nile virus transmission and disease risk. East of the Mississippi River, mostly ornithophagic Culex pipiens L. complex mosquitoes drive intense enzootic transmission with relatively small numbers of human cases. Westward, the presence of highly competent Culex tarsalis (Coquillett) under arid climate and hot summers defines the regions with the highest human risk. West Nile virus human risk distribution is not uniform geographically or temporally within all regions. Notable geographic 'hotspots' persist with occasional severe outbreaks. Despite two decades of comprehensive research, several questions remain unresolved, such as the role of non-Culex bridge vectors, which are not involved in the enzootic cycle, but may be involved in virus transmission to humans. The absence of bridge vectors also may help to explain the frequent lack of West Nile virus 'spillover' into human populations despite very intense enzootic amplification in the eastern United States. This article examines vectorial capacity and the eco-epidemiology of West Nile virus mosquito vectors in four geographic regions of North America and presents some of the unresolved questions.

Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment

Infectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing more rapidly with climate change, and have a complex epidemiology, which may allow them to take advantage of a changing environment. Most mosquito-borne infectious diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in three genera: Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex, and the expansion of these genera is well documented. There is an urgent need to study vector-borne diseases in response to climate change and to produce a generalizable approach capable of generating risk maps and forecasting outbreaks. Here, we provide a strategy for coupling climate and epidemiological models for zoonotic infectious diseases. We discuss the complexity and challenges of data and model fusion, baseline requirements for data, and animal and human population movement. Disease forecasting needs significant investment to build the infrastructure necessary to collect data about the environment, vectors, and hosts at all spatial and temporal resolutions. These investments can contribute to building a modeling community around the globe to support public health officials so as to reduce disease burden through forecasts with quantified uncertainty.

The vector ecology of introduced Culex quinquefasciatus populations, and implications for future risk of West Nile virus emergence in the Galápagos archipelago

Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae), an important vector of West Nile virus (WNV) in the U.S.A., was first detected on the Galápagos Islands (Ecuador) in the 1980s. However, little is known of its ecology, distribution or capacity for arbovirus transmission in the Galápagos. We characterize details of lifecycle (including gonotrophic period), temporal abundance, spatial distribution, vector competence and host-feeding behaviour. Culex quinquefasciatus was detected on five islands of the Galápagos during 2006-2011. A period of 7-14 days was required for egg-adult emergence; water salinity above 5 ppt was demonstrated to hinder larval development. Blood-meal analysis indicated feeding on reptiles, birds and mammals. Assessment of WNV vector competency of Galápagos C. quinquefasciatus showed a median infectious dose of 7.41 log₁₀ plaque-forming units per millilitre and evidence of vertical transmission (minimal filial infection rate of 3.7 per 1000 progeny). The distribution of C. quinquefasciatus across the archipelago could be limited by salt intolerance, and its abundance constrained by high temperatures. Feeding behaviour indicates potential to act as a bridge vector for transmission of pathogens across multiple taxa. Vertical transmission is a potential persistence mechanism for WNV on Galápagos. Together, our results can be used for epidemiological assessments of WNV and target vector control, should this pathogen reach the Galápagos Islands.

Association of spring-summer hydrology and meteorology with human West Nile virus infection in West Texas, USA, 2002-2016

Background

The emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in the Western Hemisphere has motivated research into the processes contributing to the incidence and persistence of the disease in the region. Meteorology and hydrology are fundamental determinants of vector-borne disease transmission dynamics of a region. The availability of water influences the population dynamics of vector and host, while temperature impacts vector growth rates, feeding habits, and disease transmission potential. Characterization of the temporal pattern of environmental factors influencing WNV risk is crucial to broaden our understanding of local transmission dynamics and to inform efforts of control and surveillance.

Methods

We used hydrologic, meteorological and WNV data from west Texas (2002–2016) to analyze the relationship between environmental conditions and annual human WNV infection. A Bayesian model averaging framework was used to evaluate the association of monthly environmental conditions with WNV infection.

Results

Findings indicate that wet conditions in the spring combined with dry and cool conditions in the summer are associated with increased annual WNV cases. Bayesian multi-model inference reveals monthly means of soil moisture, specific humidity and temperature to be the most important variables among predictors tested. Environmental conditions in March, June, July and August were the leading predictors in the best-fitting models.

Conclusions

The results significantly link soil moisture and temperature in the spring and summer to WNV transmission risk. Wet spring in association with dry and cool summer was the temporal pattern best-describing WNV, regardless of year. Our findings also highlight that soil moisture may be a stronger predictor of annual WNV transmission than rainfall.

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future.

IMPLICATIONS

Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

West Nile virus in Ontario, Canada: A twelve-year analysis of human case prevalence, mosquito surveillance, and climate data

West Nile Virus (WNV) first arrived in Ontario, Canada in 2001 and has since spread throughout most of the province, causing disease in humans. The provincial government established a province-wide surveillance program to monitor WNV transmission throughout the 36 regional health units. Here we have acquired records of WNV human and mosquito surveillance from 2002 to 2013 to describe seasonal and geographic trends in WNV activity in southern Ontario. Additionally, we obtained climate data from seven municipalities to investigate how temperature and precipitation affect WNV transmission dynamics. We identified a strong quadratic relationship between the number of confirmed human cases and positive Culex mosquito pools recorded at the end of each year (R² = 0.9783, p < 0.001). Using Spearman rank correlation tests, we identified that the minimum infection rate of Culex pipiens/restuans pools are the strongest predictor of human cases at a 1 week lag period. We also identified positive correlations between minimum infection rates, temperature, vector abundance, and cumulative precipitation. Global Moran’s I index indicates strong positive autocorrelation and clustering of positive Culex pool counts in southern Ontario. Local indicators of spatial association tests revealed a total of 44 high-high and 1 high-low trap locations (n = 680). In the current work we have identified when and where hot spots of WNV activity have occurred in southern Ontario. The municipalities surrounding the western shore of the Lake Ontario and Windsor-Essex County have the largest records of positive mosquitoes and human cases. We identified that positive mosquitoes are a strong indicator of human cases to follow in the coming weeks. An epidemic action threshold of cumulative positive Culex pools was established, allowing Ontario public health officials to predict an epidemic at epidemiological week 34 (rho = 0.90, p < 0.001). These data have the potential to contribute to more efficient larvicide programs and awareness campaigns for the public.

A comparison study of Zika virus outbreaks in French Polynesia, Colombia and the State of Bahia in Brazil

Zika virus (ZIKV) disease outbreaks occurred in French Polynesia in 2013-2014 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2015-2016, respectively. Using our recently developed ZIKV disease model, we simulated the reported ZIKV infection cases from French Polynesia, Colombia and the State of Bahia of Brazil. Moreover, we estimated that the infection attack rates were 78.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 63.5-86.3%) in French Polynesia which closely matches a previous serological study; 20.8% (95% CI: 1.1-50.0%) in Colombia which suggests that the attack rate was most likely less than 50%; and 32.4% (95% CI: 2.5-94.2%) in the State of Bahia in Brazil which suggests that the attack rate is unidentifiable with monthly data in Bahia. Furthermore, we found that the association of precipitation and ZIKV outbreak was more evident in Colombia than the other two places. These results are helpful for us to understand the possible evolution, to control the on-going outbreaks, to prevent the potential geographic spread, and to study the ecological and epidemiological characteristics of ZIKV.

Correlation of West Nile Virus Incidence in Donated Blood with West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease Rates, United States, 2010-2012

Over the past decade, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread across the United States. We aggregated blood donor data from 2010–2012 and then calculated the incidence of WNV RNA–positive donations and compared the incidence with neuroinvasive disease (NID) case data from the ArboNET surveillance system. Of 10,107,853 donations, 640 were confirmed positive. The seasonal WNV incidence rate per 100,000 persons was 33.4 (95% CI 22–45) in 2010, 25.7 (95% CI 15–34) in 2011, and 119.9 (95% CI 98–141) in 2012. NID to blood donor ratios were 1 in 164 (95% CI 152–178) in 2010, 1 in 158 (95% CI 145–174) in 2011, and 1 in 131 (95% CI 127–136) in 2012. We updated estimates of the ratio of NID to WNV infection rates, demonstrating stable disease penetrance over the study period. Blood donor WNV RNA screening is a valuable public health tool for WNV surveillance.

Identification of Climatic Factors Affecting the Epidemiology of Human West Nile Virus Infections in Northern Greece

Climate can affect the geographic and seasonal patterns of vector-borne disease incidence such as West Nile Virus (WNV) infections. We explore the association between climatic factors and the occurrence of West Nile fever (WNF) or West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans in Northern Greece over the years 2010–2014. Time series over a period of 30 years (1979–2008) of climatic data of air temperature, relative humidity, soil temperature, volumetric soil water content, wind speed, and precipitation representing average climate were obtained utilising the ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) system allowing for a homogeneous set of data in time and space. We analysed data of reported human cases of WNF/WNND and Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Quantitative assessment resulted in identifying associations between the above climatic variables and reported human cases of WNF/WNND. A substantial fraction of the cases was linked to the upper percentiles of the distribution of air and soil temperature for the period 1979–2008 and the lower percentiles of relative humidity and soil water content. A statistically relevant relationship between the mean weekly value climatic anomalies of wind speed (negative association), relative humidity (negative association) and air temperature (positive association) over 30 years, and reported human cases of WNF/WNND during the period 2010–2014 could be shown. A negative association between the presence of WNV infected Culex mosquitoes and wind speed could be identified. The statistically significant associations could also be confirmed for the week the WNF/WNND human cases appear and when a time lag of up to three weeks was considered. Similar statistically significant associations were identified with the weekly anomalies of the maximum and minimum values of the above climatic factors. Utilising the ERA-Interim re-analysis methodology it could be shown that besides air temperature, climatic factors such as soil temperature, relative humidity, soil water content and wind speed may affect the epidemiology of WNV.

Development and validation of a climate-based ensemble prediction model for West Nile Virus infection rates in Culex mosquitoes, Suffolk County, New York

Background

West Nile Virus (WNV) is an endemic public health concern in the United States that produces periodic seasonal epidemics. Underlying these outbreaks is the enzootic cycle of WNV between mosquito vectors and bird hosts. Identifying the key environmental conditions that facilitate and accelerate this cycle can be used to inform effective vector control.

Results

Here, we model and forecast WNV infection rates among mosquito vectors in Suffolk County, New York using readily available meteorological and hydrological conditions. We first validate a statistical model built with surveillance data between 2001 and 2009 (m09) and specify a set of new statistical models using surveillance data from 2001 to 2012 (m12). This ensemble of new models is then used to make predictions for 2013–2015, and multimodel inference is employed to provide a formal probabilistic interpretation across the disparate individual model predictions. The findings of the m09 and m12 models align; with the ensemble of m12 models indicating an association between warm, dry early spring (April) conditions and increased annual WNV infection rates in Culex mosquitoes.

Conclusions

This study shows that real-time climate information can be used to predict WNV infection rates in Culex mosquitoes prior to its seasonal peak and before WNV spillover transmission risk to humans is greatest.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1720-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Influence of Ambient Temperature on the Susceptibility of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) to the Pyrethroid Insecticide Permethrin

Insecticides are the most common strategy used for the management of mosquitoes. Changes in ambient temperature can alter the toxicity of insecticides to ectothermic organisms. Studies show organophosphate insecticides exhibit a positive correlation between ambient temperature and mortality for many insect species, and carbamate insecticides exhibit a slightly negative correlation between ambient temperature and mortality. Pyrethroid insecticides exhibit a distinctly negative correlation between increasing ambient temperature and mortality for insects. However, this relationship has not been systematically studied for adult mosquitoes. Therefore, we examined the influence of temperature on the susceptibility of adult Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae) when exposed to permethrin. The median lethal concentration, LC50, was estimated for adult Ae. aegypti when exposed to eight concentrations of permethrin (ranging from 0.06–0.58 ng/cm2) at each of the following temperatures—16, 23, 26, 30, 32, and 34C—for 24 h in bottle assays. The estimated LC50 for each temperature was 0.26, 0.36, 0.36, 0.45, 0.27, and 0.31 ng/cm2, respectively. Results indicated a negative correlation between temperature and mortality from 16 to 30C, a positive correlation between temperature and mortality from 30 to 32C, and a negative correlation between temperature and mortality from 32 to 34C. If mosquito populations are expanding in space and time because of increased ambient temperatures and cannot be managed as effectively with pyrethroids, the spread of mosquito-borne diseases may pose considerable additional risk to public health.

Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada

Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.

The role of environmental, virological and vector interactions in dictating biological transmission of arthropod-borne viruses by mosquitoes

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are transmitted between vertebrate hosts and arthropod vectors. An inherently complex interaction among virus, vector, and the environment determines successful transmission of the virus. Once believed to be "flying syringes," recent advances in the field have demonstrated that mosquito genetics, microbiota, salivary components, and mosquito innate immune responses all play important roles in modulating arbovirus transmissibility. The literature on the interaction among virus, mosquito, and environment has expanded dramatically in the preceding decade and the utilization of next-generation sequencing and transgenic vector methodologies assuredly will increase the pace of knowledge acquisition in this field. This chapter outlines the interplay among the three factors in both direct physical and biochemical manners as well as indirectly through superinfection barriers and altered induction of innate immune responses in mosquito vectors. The culmination of the aforementioned interactions and the arms race between the mosquito innate immune response and the capacity of arboviruses to antagonize such a response ultimately results in the subjugation of mosquito cells for viral replication and subsequent transmission.

The effects of forced-egg retention on the blood-feeding behavior and reproductive potential of Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae)

High rates of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission to humans are associated with exceptionally hot and dry summers. This is paradoxical since the eggs of Culex vectors of WNV depend on the persistence of containers with water, which decline during droughts. We examined the effects of forced-egg retention on the reproductive success of female Culex pipiens as well as behavioral responses, such as likelihood of secondary blood meals. As controls we examined the effects of female age and delayed mating. We found that early mating is essential to achieve reproductive success and, consistent with an "all-or-none" ovipositing strategy, C. pipiens females are able to retain considerable reproductive potential while searching for oviposition sites. Specifically, although forced-egg retention resulted in significant decreases in fitness, the decline was moderate for 5 weeks and most can be accounted for by increases in female age. Consequently, no females took blood more than once per gonotrophic cycle, which eliminates the possibility that heightened vectorial capacity due to multiple blood-feedings increases WNV transmission during periods of drought. Instead, our findings suggest that during droughts populations of C. pipiens have time to locate the remaining water holes, which are associated with human populations and WNV-competent bird species.

Towards an early warning system for forecasting human west nile virus incidence

We have identified environmental and demographic variables, available in January, that predict the relative magnitude and spatial distribution of West Nile virus (WNV) for the following summer. The yearly magnitude and spatial distribution for WNV incidence in humans in the United States (US) have varied wildly in the past decade. Mosquito control measures are expensive and having better estimates of the expected relative size of a future WNV outbreak can help in planning for the mitigation efforts and costs. West Nile virus is spread primarily between mosquitoes and birds; humans are an incidental host. Previous efforts have demonstrated a strong correlation between environmental factors and the incidence of WNV. A predictive model for human cases must include both the environmental factors for the mosquito-bird epidemic and an anthropological model for the risk of humans being bitten by a mosquito. Using weather data and demographic data available in January for every county in the US, we use logistic regression analysis to predict the probability that the county will have at least one WNV case the following summer. We validate our approach and the spatial and temporal WNV incidence in the US from 2005 to 2013. The methodology was applied to forecast the 2014 WNV incidence in late January 2014. We find the most significant predictors for a county to have a case of WNV to be the mean minimum temperature in January, the deviation of this minimum temperature from the expected minimum temperature, the total population of the county, publicly available samples of local bird populations, and if the county had a case of WNV the previous year.

Factors influencing mortality of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) ducklings during a West Nile virus outbreak

Temporal variation in exposure and (or) susceptibility to disease-causing agents may result in changing disease risks for offspring of seasonally reproducing organisms. Although increases in disease risk and disease-related mortality have been observed during the course of the breeding cycle in some systems, the extent to which this is a generalized ecological pattern remains uncertain. We obtained data during an outbreak of West Nile virus (WNV) associated mortality in 50 semicaptive Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis (Eyton, 1838)) ducklings and used known-fate survival models to assess whether daily survival rate (DSR) was related to age, hatch date, immunogenic challenge, vector abundance, and risk of WNV infection. Ducklings produced late in the breeding cycle had lower survival probabilities, relative to earlier conspecifics, but the best predictor of DSR was relative risk, suggesting that reduced survival of late-hatched individuals may have been related to increasing exposure to WNV-infected vectors.

Recent weather extremes and impacts on agricultural production and vector-borne disease outbreak patterns

We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

A tale of two city blocks: differences in immature and adult mosquito abundances between socioeconomically different urban blocks in Baltimore (Maryland, USA)

Infrastructure degradation in many post-industrial cities has increased the availability of potential mosquito habitats, including container habitats that support infestations of invasive disease-vectors. This study is unique in examining both immature and adult mosquito abundance across the fine-scale variability in socio-economic condition that occurs block-to-block in many cities. We hypothesized that abundant garbage associated with infrastructure degradation would support greater mosquito production but instead, found more mosquito larvae and host-seeking adults (86%) in parcels across the higher socio-economic, low-decay block. Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens were 5.61 (p < 0.001) and 4.60 (p = 0.001) times more abundant, respectively. Most discarded (garbage) containers were dry during peak mosquito production, which occurred during the 5th hottest July on record. Containers associated with human residence were more likely to hold water and contain immature mosquitoes. We propose that mosquito production switches from rain-fed unmanaged containers early in the season to container habitats that are purposefully shaded or watered by mid-season. This study suggests that residents living in higher socioeconomic areas with low urban decay may be at greater risk of mosquito-borne disease during peak mosquito production when local container habitats are effectively decoupled from environmental constraints.

Towards an early warning system for forecasting human west nile virus incidence

We have identified environmental and demographic variables, available in January, that predict the relative magnitude and spatial distribution of West Nile virus (WNV) for the following summer. The yearly magnitude and spatial distribution for WNV incidence in humans in the United States (US) have varied wildly in the past decade. Mosquito control measures are expensive and having better estimates of the expected relative size of a future WNV outbreak can help in planning for the mitigation efforts and costs. West Nile virus is spread primarily between mosquitoes and birds; humans are an incidental host. Previous efforts have demonstrated a strong correlation between environmental factors and the incidence of WNV. A predictive model for human cases must include both the environmental factors for the mosquito-bird epidemic and an anthropological model for the risk of humans being bitten by a mosquito. Using weather data and demographic data available in January for every county in the US, we use logistic regression analysis to predict the probability that the county will have at least one WNV case the following summer. We validate our approach and the spatial and temporal WNV incidence in the US from 2005 to 2013. The methodology was applied to forecast the 2014 WNV incidence in late January 2014. We find the most significant predictors for a county to have a case of WNV to be the mean minimum temperature in January, the deviation of this minimum temperature from the expected minimum temperature, the total population of the county, publicly available samples of local bird populations, and if the county had a case of WNV the previous year.

A review of national-level adaptation planning with regards to the risks posed by climate change on infectious diseases in 14 OECD nations

Climate change is likely to have significant implications for human health, particularly through alterations of the incidence, prevalence, and distribution of infectious diseases. In the context of these risks, governments in high income nations have begun developing strategies to reduce potential climate change impacts and increase health system resilience (i.e., adaptation). In this paper, we review and evaluate national-level adaptation planning in relation to infectious disease risks in 14 OECD countries with respect to "best practices" for adaptation identified in peer-reviewed literature. We find a number of limitations to current planning, including negligible consideration of the needs of vulnerable population groups, limited emphasis on local risks, and inadequate attention to implementation logistics, such as available funding and timelines for evaluation. The nature of planning documents varies widely between nations, four of which currently lack adaptation plans. In those countries where planning documents were available, adaptations were mainstreamed into existing public health programs, and prioritized a sectoral, rather than multidisciplinary, approach. The findings are consistent with other scholarship examining adaptation planning indicating an ad hoc and fragmented process, and support the need for enhanced attention to adaptation to infectious disease risks in public health policy at a national level.

Vector-virus interactions and transmission dynamics of West Nile virus

West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus; Flaviviridae) is the cause of the most widespread arthropod-borne viral disease in the world and the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease ever observed. Mosquito-borne outbreaks are influenced by intrinsic (e.g., vector and viral genetics, vector and host competence, vector life-history traits) and extrinsic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors that affect virus activity and mosquito biology in complex ways. The concept of vectorial capacity integrates these factors to address interactions of the virus with the arthropod host, leading to a clearer understanding of their complex interrelationships, how they affect transmission of vector-borne disease, and how they impact human health. Vertebrate factors including host competence, population dynamics, and immune status also affect transmission dynamics. The complexity of these interactions are further exacerbated by the fact that not only can divergent hosts differentially alter the virus, but the virus also can affect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts in ways that significantly alter patterns of virus transmission. This chapter concentrates on selected components of the virus-vector-vertebrate interrelationship, focusing specifically on how interactions between vector, virus, and environment shape the patterns and intensity of WNV transmission.