Environmental drivers of West Nile fever epidemiology in Europe and Western Asia--a review

Warm winters are associated to more intense West Nile virus circulation in southern Spain

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most widely distributed mosquito-borne flavivirus in the world. This flavivirus can infect humans causing in some cases a fatal neurological disease and birds are the main reservoir hosts. WNV is endemic in Spain, and human cases have been reported since 2004. Although different studies analyse how climatic conditions can affect the dynamics of WNV infection, very few use long-term datasets. Between 2003 and 2020 a total of 2,724 serum samples from 1,707 common coots (Fulica atra) were analysed for the presence of WNV-specific antibodies. Mean (SD) annual seroprevalence was 24.67% (0.28) but showed high year-to-year variations ranging from 5.06% (0.17) to 68.89% (0.29). Significant positive correlations (p < 0.01) were observed between seroprevalence and maximum winter temperature and mean spring temperature. The unprecedented WNV outbreak in humans in the south of Spain in 2020 was preceded by a prolonged period of escalating WNV local circulation. Given current global and local climatic trends, WNV circulation is expected to increase in the next decades. This underscores the necessity of implementing One Health approaches to reduce the risk of future WNV outbreaks in humans. Our results suggest that higher winter and spring temperatures may be used as an early warning signal of more intense WNV circulation among wildlife in Spain, and consequently highlight the need of more intense vector control and surveillance in human inhabited areas.

Impacts of climate change on water-related mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions: A systematic review of literature and meta-analysis

Mosquito-borne diseases are a known tropical phenomenon. This review was conducted to assess the mecha-nisms through which climate change impacts mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions. Articles were searched from PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Embase databases. Identification criteria were scope (climate change and mosquito-borne diseases), region (temperate), article type (peer-reviewed), publication language (English), and publication years (since 2015). The WWH (who, what, how) framework was applied to develop the research question and thematic analyses identified the mechanisms through which climate change affects mosquito-borne diseases. While temperature ranges for disease transmission vary per mosquito species, all are viable for temperate regions, particularly given projected temperature increases. Zika, chikungunya, and dengue transmission occurs between 18-34 °C (peak at 26-29 °C). West Nile virus establishment occurs at monthly average temperatures between 14-34.3 °C (peak at 23.7-25 °C). Malaria establishment occurs when the consecutive average daily temperatures are above 16 °C until the sum is above 210 °C. The identified mechanisms through which climate change affects the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions include: changes in the development of vectors and pathogens; changes in mosquito habitats; extended transmission seasons; changes in geographic spread; changes in abundance and behaviors of hosts; reduced abundance of mosquito predators; interruptions to control operations; and influence on other non-climate factors. Process and stochastic approaches as well as dynamic and spatial models exist to predict mosquito population dynamics, disease transmission, and climate favorability. Future projections based on the observed relations between climate factors and mosquito-borne diseases suggest that mosquito-borne disease expansion is likely to occur in temperate regions due to climate change. While West Nile virus is already established in some temperate regions, Zika, dengue, chikungunya, and malaria are also likely to become established over time. Moving forward, more research is required to model future risks by incorporating climate, environmental, sociodemographic, and mosquito-related factors under changing climates.

The historical ecological background of West Nile virus in Portugal indicates One Health opportunities

West Nile (WNV) is a zoonotic arbovirus with an expanding geographical range and epidemic activity in Europe. Not having yet experienced a human-associated epidemic, Portugal remains an outlier in the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we apply ecological niche modelling informed by WNV historical evidence and a multitude of environmental variables from across Portugal. We identify that ecological backgrounds compatible with WNV historical circulation are mostly restricted to the south, characterized by a warmer and drier climate, high avian diversity, specific avian species and land types. We estimate WNV ecological suitability across the country, identifying overlaps with the distributions of the three relevant hosts (humans, birds, equines) for public and animal health. From this, we propose a category-based spatial framework providing first of a kind valuable insights for WNV surveillance in Portugal under the One Health nexus. We forecast that near future climate trends alone will contribute to pushing adequate WNV ecological suitability northwards, towards regions with higher human density. This unique perspective on the past, present and future ecology of WNV addresses existing national knowledge gaps, enhances our understanding of the evolving emergence of WNV, and offers opportunities to prepare and respond to the first human-associated epidemic in Portugal.

Genomic epidemiology of West Nile virus in Europe

West Nile virus is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne zoonotic viruses, with unique transmission dynamics in various parts of the world. Genomic surveillance has provided important insights in the global patterns of West Nile virus emergence and spread. In Europe, multiple West Nile virus lineages have been isolated, with lineage 1a and 2 being the main lineages responsible for human infections. In contrast to North America, where a single introduction of lineage 1a resulted in the virus establishing itself in a new continent, at least 13 introductions of lineages 1a and 2 have occurred into Europe, which is likely a vast underestimation of the true number of introductions. Historically, lineage 1a was the main lineage circulating in Europe, but since the emergence of lineage 2 in the early 2000s, the latter has become the predominant lineage. This shift in West Nile virus lineage prevalence has been broadly linked to the expansion of the virus into northerly temperate regions, where autochthonous cases in animals and humans have been reported in Germany and The Netherlands. Here, we discuss how genomic analysis has increased our understanding of the epidemiology of West Nile virus in Europe, and we present a global Nextstrain build consisting of publicly available West Nile virus genomes (https://nextstrain.org/community/grubaughlab/WNV-Global). Our results elucidate recent insights in West Nile virus lineage dynamics in Europe, and discuss how expanded programs can fill current genomic surveillance gaps.

Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes. To this end, we trained ecological niche models to predict the risk of local WNV circulation leading to human cases to then unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual based on the same environmental changes but a counterfactual climate where long-term trends have been removed. Our findings demonstrate a notable increase in the area ecologically suitable for WNV circulation during the period 1901-2019, whereas this area remains largely unchanged in a no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that the drastic increase in the human population at risk of exposure is partly due to historical changes in population density, but that climate change has also been a critical driver behind the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.

Development of Vaccines against Emerging Mosquito-Vectored Arbovirus Infections

Among emergent climate-sensitive infectious diseases, some mosquito-vectored arbovirus infections have epidemiological, social, and economic effects. Dengue virus (DENV), West Nile virus (WNV), and Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) disease, previously common only in the tropics, currently pose a major risk to global health and are expected to expand dramatically in the near future if adequate containment measures are not implemented. The lack of safe and effective vaccines is critical as it seems likely that emerging mosquito-vectored arbovirus infections will be con-trolled only when effective and safe vaccines against each of these infections become available. This paper discusses the clinical characteristics of DENV, WNV, and CHIKV infections and the state of development of vaccines against these viruses. An ideal vaccine should be able to evoke with a single administration a prompt activation of B and T cells, adequate concentrations of protecting/neutralizing antibodies, and the creation of a strong immune memory capable of triggering an effective secondary antibody response after new infection with a wild-type and/or mutated infectious agent. Moreover, the vaccine should be well tolerated, safe, easily administrated, cost-effective, and widely available throughout the world. However, the development of vaccines against emerging mosquito-vectored arbovirus diseases is far from being satisfactory, and it seems likely that it will take many years before effective and safe vaccines for all these infections are made available worldwide.

Navigating Evolving Challenges in Blood Safety

Blood safety remains a paramount public health concern, and health authorities maintain a high level of vigilance to prevent transfusion-transmitted infections (TTIs) [...].

Long-term serological surveillance for West Nile and Usutu virus in horses in south-West Spain

West Nile virus (WNV) is a re-emerging zoonotic pathogen with increasing incidence in Europe, producing a recent outbreak in 2020 in Spain with 77 human cases and eight fatalities. However, the factors explaining the observed changes in the incidence of WNV in Europe are not completely understood. Longitudinal monitoring of WNV in wild animals across Europe is a useful approach to understand the eco-epidemiology of WNV in the wild and the risk of spillover into humans. However, such studies are very scarce up to now. Here, we analysed the occurrence of WNV and Usutu virus (USUV) antibodies in 2102 samples collected between 2005 and 2020 from a population of feral horses in Doñana National Park. The prevalence of WNV antibodies varied between years, with a mean seroprevalence of 8.1% (range 0%-25%) and seasonally. Climate conditions including mean minimum annual temperatures and mean rainy days per year were positively correlated with WNV seroprevalence, while the annual rainfall was negatively. We also detected the highest incidence of seroconversions in 2020 coinciding with the human outbreak in southern Spain. Usutu virus-specific antibodies were detected in the horse population since 2011. The WNV outbreak in humans was preceded by a long period of increasing circulation of WNV among horses with a very high exposure in the year of the outbreak. These results highlight the utility of One Health approaches to better understand the transmission dynamics of zoonotics pathogens.

Monitoring the West Nile virus outbreaks in Italy using open access data

This paper introduces a comprehensive dataset on West Nile virus outbreaks that have occurred in Italy from September 2012 to November 2022. We have digitized bulletins published by the Italian National Institute of Health to demonstrate the potential utilization of this data for the research community. Our aim is to establish a centralized open access repository that facilitates analysis and monitoring of the disease. We have collected and curated data on the type of infected host, along with additional information whenever available, including the type of infection, age, and geographic details at different levels of spatial aggregation. By combining our data with other sources of information such as weather data, it becomes possible to assess potential relationships between West Nile virus outbreaks and environmental factors. We strongly believe in supporting public oversight of government epidemic management, and we emphasize that open data play a crucial role in generating reliable results by enabling greater transparency.

Interactions between West Nile Virus and the Microbiota of Culex pipiens Vectors: A Literature Review

The flavivirus West Nile virus (WNV) naturally circulates between mosquitoes and birds, potentially affecting humans and horses. Different species of mosquitoes play a role as vectors of WNV, with those of the Culex pipiens complex being particularly crucial for its circulation. Different biotic and abiotic factors determine the capacity of mosquitoes for pathogen transmission, with the mosquito gut microbiota being recognized as an important one. Here, we review the published studies on the interactions between the microbiota of the Culex pipiens complex and WNV infections in mosquitoes. Most articles published so far studied the interactions between bacteria of the genus Wolbachia and WNV infections, obtaining variable results regarding the directionality of this relationship. In contrast, only a few studies investigate the role of the whole microbiome or other bacterial taxa in WNV infections. These studies suggest that bacteria of the genera Serratia and Enterobacter may enhance WNV development. Thus, due to the relevance of WNV in human and animal health and the important role of mosquitoes of the Cx. pipiens complex in its transmission, more research is needed to unravel the role of mosquito microbiota and those factors affecting this microbiota on pathogen epidemiology. In this respect, we finally propose future lines of research lines on this topic.

A modified BG-Sentinel trap equipped with FTA card as a novel tool for mosquito-borne disease surveillance: a field test for flavivirus detection

Early detection of pathogens in vectors is important in preventing the spread of arboviral diseases, providing a timely indicator of pathogen circulation before outbreaks occur. However, entomological surveillance may face logistical constraints, such as maintaining the cold chain, and resource limitations, such as the field and laboratory workload of mosquito processing. We propose an FTA card-based trapping system that aims to simplify both field and laboratory phases of arbovirus surveillance. We modified a BG-Sentinel trap to include a mosquito collection chamber and a sugar feeding source through an FTA card soaked in a long-lasting viscous solution of honey and hydroxy-cellulose hydrogel. The FTA card ensures environmental preservation of nucleic acids, allowing continuous collection and feeding activity of specimens for several days and reducing the effort required for viral detection. We tested the trap prototype during two field seasons (2019 and 2021) in North-eastern Italy and compared it to CDC-CO2 trapping applied in West Nile and Usutu virus regional surveillance. Collections by the BG-FTA approach detected high species diversity, including Culex pipiens, Aedes albopictus, Culex modestus, Anopheles maculipennis sensu lato and Ochlerotatus caspius. When used for two-days sampling, the BG-FTA trap performed equally to CDC also for the WNV-major vector Cx. pipiens. The FTA cards detected both WNV and USUV, confirming the reliability of this novel approach to detect viral circulation in infectious mosquitoes. We recommend this surveillance approach as a particularly useful alternative in multi-target surveillance, for sampling in remote areas and in contexts characterized by high mosquito densities and diversity.

Multisectoral Perspectives on Global Warming and Vector-borne Diseases: a Focus on Southern Europe

Purpose of Review

The climate change (CC) or global warming (GW) modifies environment that favors vectors' abundance, growth, and reproduction, and consequently, the rate of development of pathogens within the vectors. This review highlights the threats of GW-induced vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in Southern Europe (SE) and the need for mitigation efforts to prevent potential global health catastrophe.

Recent Findings

Reports showed astronomical surges in the incidences of CC-induced VBDs in the SE. The recently (2022) reported first cases of African swine fever in Northern Italy and West Nile fever in SE are linked to the CC-modified environmental conditions that support vectors and pathogens' growth and development, and disease transmission.

Summary

VBDs endemic to the tropics are increasingly becoming a major health challenge in the SE, a temperate region, due to the favorable environmental conditions caused by CC/GW that support vectors and pathogens' biology in the previously non-endemic temperate regions.

An integrated system for the management of environmental data to support veterinary epidemiology

Environmental and climatic fluctuations can greatly influence the dynamics of infectious diseases of veterinary concern, or interfere with the implementation of relevant control measures. Including environmental and climatic aspects in epidemiological studies could provide policy makers with new insights to assign resources for measures to prevent or limit the spread of animal diseases, particularly those with zoonotic potential. The ever-increasing number of technologies and tools permits acquiring environmental data from various sources, including ground-based sensors and Satellite Earth Observation (SEO). However, the high heterogeneity of these datasets often requires at least some basic GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and/or coding skills to use them in further analysis. Therefore, the high availability of data does not always correspond to widespread use for research purposes. The development of an integrated data pre-processing system makes it possible to obtain information that could be easily and directly used in subsequent epidemiological analyses, supporting both research activities and the management of disease outbreaks. Indeed, such an approach allows for the reduction of the time spent on searching, downloading, processing and validating environmental data, thereby optimizing available resources and reducing any possible errors directly related to data collection. Although multitudes of free services that allow obtaining SEO data exist nowadays (either raw or pre-processed through a specific coding language), the availability and quality of information can be sub-optimal when dealing with very small scale and local data. In fact, some information sets (e.g., air temperature, rainfall), usually derived from ground-based sensors (e.g., agro-meteo station), are managed, processed and redistributed by agencies operating on a local scale which are often not directly accessible by the most common free SEO services (e.g., Google Earth Engine). The EVE (Environmental data for Veterinary Epidemiology) system has been developed to acquire, pre-process and archive a set of environmental information at various scales, in order to facilitate and speed up access by epidemiologists, researchers and decision-makers, also accounting for the integration of SEO information with locally sensed data.

An epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus

We extend a previously developed epidemiological model for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in humans in Greece, employing laboratory-confirmed WNV cases and mosquito-specific characteristics of transmission, such as host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of the virus. Host selection was defined by bird host selection and human host selection, the latter accounting only for the fraction of humans that develop symptoms after the virus is acquired. To model the role of temperature on virus transmission, we considered five temperature intervals (≤ 19.25 °C; > 19.25 and < 21.75 °C; ≥ 21.75 and < 24.25 °C; ≥ 24.25 and < 26.75 °C; and > 26.75 °C). The capacity of the new model to fit human cases and the week of first case occurrence was compared with the original model and showed improved performance. The model was also used to infer further quantities of interest, such as the force of infection for different temperatures as well as mosquito and bird abundances. Our results indicate that the inclusion of mosquito-specific characteristics in epidemiological models of mosquito-borne diseases leads to improved modelling capacity.

Epidemiology and Clinical Manifestation of West Nile Virus Infections of Equines in Hungary, 2007-2020

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging pathogen in Hungary, causing severe outbreaks in equines and humans since 2007. The aim of our study was to provide a comprehensive report on the clinical signs of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) in horses in Hungary. Clinical details of 124 confirmed equine WNND cases were collected between 2007 and 2019. Data about the seasonal and geographical presentation, demographic data, clinical signs, treatment protocols, and disease progression were evaluated. Starting from an initial case originating from the area of possible virus introduction by migratory birds, the whole country became endemic with WNV over the subsequent 12 years. The transmission season did not expand significantly during the data collection period, but vaccination protocols should be always reviewed according to the recent observations. There was not any considerable relationship between the occurrence of WNND and age, breed, or gender. Ataxia was by far the most common neurologic sign related to the disease, but weakness, behavioral changes, and muscle fasciculation appeared frequently. Apart from recumbency combined with inappetence, no other clinical sign or treatment regime correlated with survival. The survival rate showed a moderate increase throughout the years, possibly due to the increased awareness of practitioners.

Impact of climate change on West Nile virus distribution in South America

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV) is a vector-borne pathogen of global relevance and is currently the most widely distributed flavivirus causing encephalitis worldwide. Climate conditions have direct and indirect impacts on vector abundance and virus dynamics within the mosquito. The significance of environmental variables as drivers in WNV epidemiology is increasing under the current climate change scenario. In this study we used a machine learning algorithm to model WNV distributions in South America.

METHODS

Our model evaluated eight environmental variables for their contribution to the occurrence of WNV since its introduction in South America in 2004.

RESULTS

Our results showed that environmental variables can directly alter the occurrence of WNV, with lower precipitation and higher temperatures associated with increased virus incidence. High-risk areas may be modified in the coming years, becoming more evident with high greenhouse gas emission levels. Countries such as Bolivia, Paraguay and several Brazilian areas, mainly in the northeast and midwest regions and the Pantanal biome, will be greatly affected, drastically changing the current WNV distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

Understanding the linkages between climatological and ecological change as determinants of disease emergence and redistribution will help optimize preventive strategies. Increased virus surveillance, integrated modelling and the use of geographically based data systems will provide more anticipatory measures by the scientific community.

Culex pipiens distribution in Tunisia: Identification of suitable areas through Random Forest and MaxEnt approaches

BACKGROUND

Tunisia has experienced several West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks since 1997. Yet, there is limited information on the spatial distribution of the main WNV mosquito vector Culex pipiens suitability at the national level.

OBJECTIVES

In the present study, our aim was to predict and evaluate the potential and current distribution of Cx. pipiens in Tunisia.

METHODS

To this end, two species distribution models were used, i.e. MaxEnt and Random Forest. Occurrence records for Cx. pipiens were obtained from adult and larvae sampled in Tunisia from 2014 to 2017. Climatic and human factors were used as predictors to model the Cx. pipiens geographical distribution. Mean decrease accuracy and mean decrease Gini indices were calculated to evaluate the importance of the impact of different environmental and human variables on the probability distribution of Cx. pipiens.

RESULTS

Suitable habitats were mainly distributed next to oases, in the north and eastern part of the country. The most important predictor was the population density in both models. The study found out that the governorates of Monastir, Nabeul, Manouba, Ariana, Bizerte, Gabes, Medenine and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The potential distribution of Cx. pipiens coincides geographically with the observed distribution of the disease in humans in Tunisia. Our study has the potential for driving control effort in the fight against West Nile vector in Tunisia.

The one health perspective to improve environmental surveillance of zoonotic viruses: lessons from COVID-19 and outlook beyond

The human population has doubled in the last 50 years from about 3.7 billion to approximately 7.8 billion. With this rapid expansion, more people live in close contact with wildlife, livestock, and pets, which in turn creates increasing opportunities for zoonotic diseases to pass between animals and people. At present an estimated 75% of all emerging virus-associated infectious diseases possess a zoonotic origin, and outbreaks of Zika, Ebola and COVID-19 in the past decade showed their huge disruptive potential on the global economy. Here, we describe how One Health inspired environmental surveillance campaigns have emerged as the preferred tools to monitor human-adjacent environments for known and yet to be discovered infectious diseases, and how they can complement classical clinical diagnostics. We highlight the importance of environmental factors concerning interactions between animals, pathogens and/or humans that drive the emergence of zoonoses, and the methodologies currently proposed to monitor them-the surveillance of wastewater, for example, was identified as one of the main tools to assess the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by public health professionals and policy makers during the COVID-19 pandemic. One-Health driven approaches that facilitate surveillance, thus harbour the potential of preparing humanity for future pandemics caused by aetiological agents with environmental reservoirs. Via the example of COVID-19 and other viral diseases, we propose that wastewater surveillance is a useful complement to clinical diagnosis as it is centralized, robust, cost-effective, and relatively easy to implement.

Host selection and forage ratio in West Nile virus-transmitting Culex mosquitoes: Challenges and knowledge gaps

BACKGROUND

To date, no specific therapy or vaccination is available for West Nile virus (WNV) infections in humans; preventive strategies represent the only possibility to control transmission. To focus these strategies, detailed knowledge of the virus dynamics is of paramount importance. However, several aspects of WNV transmission are still unclear, especially regarding the role of potential vertebrate host species. Whereas mosquitoes' intrinsic characteristics cause them to favour certain hosts (host preference), absolute selection is impossible in natural settings. Conversely, the selection carried out among available hosts and influenced from hosts' availability and other ecological/environmental factors is defined as host selection.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

In July 2022, we searched PubMed database for original articles exploring host selection among WNV-transmitting Culex mosquitoes, the main WNV vector. We considered only original field studies estimating and reporting forage ratio. This index results from the ratio between the proportion of blood meals taken by mosquitoes on potential host species and the hosts' relative abundance. From the originally retrieved 585 articles, 9 matched the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. All but one of the included studies were conducted in the Americas, six in the United States, and one each in Mexico and Colombia. The remaining study was conducted in Italy. American Robin, Northern Cardinal, and House Finch were the most significantly preferred birds in the Americas, Common Blackbird in Italy.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Although ornithophilic, all observed WNV-transmitting mosquitoes presented opportunistic feeding behaviour. All the observed species showed potential to act as bridges for zoonotic diseases, feeding also on humans. All the observed mosquitoes presented host selection patterns and did not feed on hosts as expected by chance alone. The articles observe different species of mosquitoes in different environments. In addition, the way the relative host abundance was determined differed. Finally, this review is not systematic. Therefore, the translation of our results to different settings should be conducted cautiously.

Towards reliable whole genome sequencing for outbreak preparedness and response

BACKGROUND

To understand the dynamics of infectious diseases, genomic epidemiology is increasingly advocated, with a need for rapid generation of genetic sequences during outbreaks for public health decision making. Here, we explore the use of metagenomic sequencing compared to specific amplicon- and capture-based sequencing, both on the Nanopore and the Illumina platform for generation of whole genomes of Usutu virus, Zika virus, West Nile virus, and Yellow Fever virus.

RESULTS

We show that amplicon-based Nanopore sequencing can be used to rapidly obtain whole genome sequences in samples with a viral load up to Ct 33 and capture-based Illumina is the most sensitive method for initial virus determination.

CONCLUSIONS

The choice of sequencing approach and platform is important for laboratories wishing to start whole genome sequencing. Depending on the purpose of genome sequencing the best choice can differ. The insights presented in this work and the shown differences in data characteristics can guide labs to make a well informed choice.

Usage of FTA® Classic Cards for Safe Storage, Shipment, and Detection of Arboviruses

Infections caused by arthropod-borne RNA viruses are overrepresented among emerging infectious diseases. Effective methods for collecting, storing, and transporting clinical or biological specimens are needed worldwide for disease surveillance. However, many tropical regions where these diseases are endemic lack analytical facilities and possibility of continuous cold chains, which presents challenges from both a biosafety and material preservation perspective. Whatman^® FTA^® Classic Cards may serve as an effective and safe option for transporting hazardous samples at room temperature, particularly for RNA viruses classified as biosafety level (BSL) 2 and 3 pathogens, from sampling sites to laboratories. In this study, we investigated the biosafety and perseverance of representative alpha- and flaviviruses stored on FTA^® cards. To evaluate the virus inactivation capacity of FTA^® cards, we used Sindbis virus (SINV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). We inoculated susceptible cells with dilution series of eluates from viral samples stored on the FTA^® cards and observed for cytopathic effect to evaluate the ability of the cards to inactivate viruses. All tested viruses were inactivated after storage on FTA^® cards. In addition, we quantified viral RNA of JEV, SINV, and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) stored on FTA^® cards at 4 °C, 25 °C, and 37 °C for 30 days using two reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR assays. Viral RNA of SINV stored on FTA^® cards was not reduced at either 4 °C or 25 °C over a 30-day period, but degraded rapidly at 37 °C. For JEV and TBEV, degradation was observed at all temperatures, with the most rapid degradation occurring at 37 °C. Therefore, the use of FTA^® cards provides a safe and effective workflow for the collection, storage, and analysis of BSL 2- and 3-virus RNA samples, but there is a risk of false negative results if the cards are stored at higher temperatures for long periods of time. Conscious usage of the cards can be useful in disease surveillance and research, especially in tropical areas where transportation and cold chains are problematic.

Artificial intelligence to predict West Nile virus outbreaks with eco-climatic drivers

Background

In Europe, the frequency, intensity, and geographic range of West Nile virus (WNV)-outbreaks have increased over the past decade, with a 7.2-fold increase in 2018 compared to 2017, and a markedly expanded geographic area compared to 2010. The reasons for this increase and range expansion remain largely unknown due to the complexity of the transmission pathways and underlying disease drivers. In a first, we use advanced artificial intelligence to disentangle the contribution of eco-climatic drivers to WNV-outbreaks across Europe using decade-long (2010-2019) data at high spatial resolution.

Methods

We use a high-performance machine learning classifier, XGBoost (eXtreme gradient boosting) combined with state-of-the-art XAI (eXplainable artificial intelligence) methodology to describe the predictive ability and contribution of different drivers of the emergence and transmission of WNV-outbreaks in Europe, respectively.

Findings

Our model, trained on 2010-2017 data achieved an AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) score of 0.97 and 0.93 when tested with 2018 and 2019 data, respectively, showing a high discriminatory power to classify a WNV-endemic area. Overall, positive summer/spring temperatures anomalies, lower water availability index (NDWI), and drier winter conditions were found to be the main determinants of WNV-outbreaks across Europe. The climate trends of the preceding year in combination with eco-climatic predictors of the first half of the year provided a robust predictive ability of the entire transmission season ahead of time. For the extraordinary 2018 outbreak year, relatively higher spring temperatures and the abundance of Culex mosquitoes were the strongest predictors, in addition to past climatic trends.

Interpretation

Our AI-based framework can be deployed to trigger rapid and timely alerts for active surveillance and vector control measures in order to intercept an imminent WNV-outbreak in Europe.

Funding

The work was partially funded by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS for the project ARBOPREVENT (grant agreement 2018-05973).

Seroprevalence and Risk Factors for Equine West Nile Virus Infections in Eastern Germany, 2020

West Nile virus (WNV) infections were first detected in Germany in 2018, but information about WNV seroprevalence in horses is limited. The study’s overall goal was to gather information that would help veterinarians, horse owners, and veterinary-, and public health- authorities understand the spread of WNV in Germany and direct protective measures. For this purpose, WNV seroprevalence was determined in counties with and without previously registered WNV infections in horses, and risk factors for seropositivity were estimated. The cohort consisted of privately owned horses from nine counties in Eastern Germany. A total of 940 serum samples was tested by competitive panflavivirus ELISA (cELISA), and reactive samples were further tested by WNV IgM capture ELISA and confirmed by virus neutralization test (VNT). Information about potential risk factors was recorded by questionnaire and analyzed by logistic regression. A total of 106 serum samples showed antibodies against flaviviruses by cELISA, of which six tested positive for WNV IgM. The VNT verified a WNV infection for 54 samples (50.9%), while 35 sera neutralized tick-borne encephalitis virus (33.0%), and eight sera neutralized Usutu virus (7.5%). Hence, seroprevalence for WNV infection was 5.8% on average and was significantly higher in counties with previously registered infections (p = 0.005). The risk factor analysis showed breed type (pony), housing in counties with previously registered infections, housing type (24 h turn-out), and presence of outdoor shelter as the main significant risk factors for seropositivity. In conclusion, we estimated the extent of WNV infection in the resident horse population in Eastern Germany and showed that seroprevalence was higher in counties with previously registered equine WNV infections.

Sero-Prevalence of West Nile Virus in Urban and Peri-Urban Poultry Farms of Guwahati, India

West Nile virus (WNV) is a zoonotic, emerging mosquito-borne virus which can cause severe disease in the form of encephalitis and acute flaccid paralysis in humans. In Assam, northeast India, arboviruses seem to be re-emerging, however, WNV has been little studied. The present investigation was carried out from April, 2018 to March, 2019 to study sero-positivity of WNV in chicken in urban and peri-urban areas of Guwahati, the capital city of Assam. Four urban and four peri-urban areas of Guwahati were selected. A total of 864 chicken serum samples (72 samples per month) were screened by ELISA and further confirmed by haemagglutination inhibition (HI), which revealed that 3.13% of the chickens had been exposed to WNV, with 0.69% sero-positivity in urban areas compared to 5.56% in peri-urban. Peak sero-prevalence of WNV were reported during the month of July and August with 8.33% each with lowest sero-prevalence being recorded in November (1.39%) and no sero-positive birds from December to April. These results indicate that WNV is one of the actively circulating flaviviruses in Assam, and human febrile and encephalitic cases should be screened for the disease.

Enhanced Seroconversion to West Nile Virus Proteins in Mice by West Nile Kunjin Replicon Virus-like Particles Expressing Glycoproteins from Crimean–Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus

Removal of genes coding for major parts of capsid (C), premembrane (prM), and envelope (E) proteins on the flavivirus genome aborts the production of infectious virus particles where the remaining genome forms a replicon that retains replicability in host cells. The C-prM-E proteins can also be expressed in trans with the flavivirus replicons to generate single-round infectious replicon virus-like particles (RVPs). In this study, we characterized the use of RVPs based on the Kunjin strain of WNV (WNV_KUN) as a putative WNV vaccine candidate. In addition, the WNV_KUN C-prM-E genes were substituted with the Crimean–Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) genes encoding the glycoproteins Gn and Gc to generate a WNV_KUN replicon expressing the CCHFV proteins. To generate RVPs, the WNV_KUN replicon was transfected into a cell line expressing the WNV_KUN C-prM-E. Using immunoblotting and immunofluorescence assays, we showed that the replicon can express the CCHFV Gn and Gc proteins and the RVPs can transduce cells to express WNV_KUN proteins and the CCHFV Gn and Gc proteins. Our study also revealed that these RVPs have potential as a vaccine platform with low risk of recombination as it infects cells only in one cycle. The immunization of mice with the RVPs resulted in high seroconversion to both WNV E and NS1 but limited seroconversion to CCHFV Gn and Gc proteins. Interestingly, we found that there was enhanced production of WNV E, NS1 antibodies, and neutralizing antibodies by the inclusion of CCHFV Gc and Gn into WNV_KUN RVPs. Thus, this study indicates a complementary effect of the CCHFV Gn and Gc proteins on the immunogenicity by WNV_KUN RVPs, which may be applied to develop a future vaccine against the WNV.

West Nile virus transmission potential in Portugal

It is unclear whether West Nile virus (WNV) circulates endemically in Portugal. Despite the country’s adequate climate for transmission, Portugal has only reported four human WNV infections so far. We performed a review of WNV-related data (1966–2020), explored mosquito (2016–2019) and land type distributions (1992–2019), and used climate data (1981–2019) to estimate WNV transmission suitability in Portugal. Serological and molecular evidence of WNV circulation from animals and vectors was largely restricted to the south. Land type and climate-driven transmission suitability distributions, but not the distribution of WNV-capable vectors, were compatible with the North-South divide present in serological and molecular evidence of WNV circulation. Our study offers a comprehensive, data-informed perspective and review on the past epidemiology, surveillance and climate-driven transmission suitability of WNV in Portugal, highlighting the south as a subregion of importance. Given the recent WNV outbreaks across Europe, our results support a timely change towards local, active surveillance.

Lourenço et al. review historical data and quantify the transmission potential of West Nile virus in Portugal. They report a North-South divide in infection patterns, a higher ecological capacity in the south, and an increasing positive effect of climate change over the last 40 years.

A climate-dependent spatial epidemiological model for the transmission risk of West Nile virus at local scale

In this study, initial elements of a modelling framework aimed to become a spatial forecasting model for the transmission risk of West Nile virus (WNV) are presented. The model describes the dynamics of a WNV epidemic in population health states of mosquitoes, birds and humans and was applied to the case of Greece for the period 2010–2019. Calibration was performed with the available epidemiological data from the Hellenic Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and the environmental data from the European Union's earth observation program, Copernicus. Numerical results of the model for each municipality were evaluated against observations. Specifically, the occurrence of WNV, the number of infected humans and the week of incidence predicted from the model were compared to the corresponding numbers from observations. The results suggest that dynamic downscaling of a climate-dependent epidemiological model is feasible down-to roughly 80km². This below nomenclature of territorial units for statistics (NUTS) 3 level represents the municipalities being the lowest level of administrative units, able to cope with WNV and take actions. The average detection probability in hindcast mode was 72%, improving strongly as the number of infected humans increased. Using the developed model, we were also able to show the fundamental importance of the May temperatures in shaping the WNV dynamics. The modeling framework couples epidemiological and environmental dynamical variables with surveillance data producing risk maps downscaled at a local level. The approach can be expanded to provide targeted early warning probabilistic forecasts that can be used to inform public health policy decision making.

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Downscaling of a climate-dependent epidemiological model feasible to roughly 80 km².

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The model demonstrates competence in reproducing WNV event occurrence spatially at the municipality scale.

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The average detection probability is 72%, improving with increasing human infections.

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The hardest to model WNV events occurred at municipalities and years with only one human infection annually.

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Temperatures in May are found most critical in shaping the WNV dynamics.

West Nile Virus and Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus Are Endemic in Equids in Eastern Austria

The emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV) in addition to the autochthonous tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) in Europe causes rising concern for public and animal health. The first equine case of West Nile neuroinvasive disease in Austria was diagnosed in 2016. As a consequence, a cross-sectional seroprevalence study was conducted in 2017, including 348 equids from eastern Austria. Serum samples reactive by ELISA for either flavivirus immunoglobulin G or M were further analyzed with the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT-80) to identify the specific etiologic agent. Neutralizing antibody prevalences excluding vaccinated equids were found to be 5.3% for WNV, 15.5% for TBEV, 0% for USUV, and 1.2% for WNV from autochthonous origin. Additionally, reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) was performed to detect WNV nucleic acid in horse sera and was found to be negative in all cases. Risk factor analysis did not identify any factors significantly associated with seropositivity.

First neuroinvasive human case of West Nile Disease in Southern Italy: Results of the 'One Health' approach

Background

West Nile Disease (WND) is a zoonotic mosquito‐borne infection involving viral pathogens, human and animal hosts, vectors and environment. Cooperation among medical, veterinary and entomological fields has been promoted by the Italian Public Health Authorities, and an integrated West Nile Virus (WNV) Surveillance Plan has been in force in Italy since 2016 to prevent the transmission risk of WND to humans through an early detection of viral circulation by animal and entomological surveillance. This managing model is unique in Europe.

Objectives

This survey aimed at presenting the ‘One Health’ approach applied in 2016 to the first autochthonous human case of West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease (WNND) in Sicily (Southern Italy).

Methods

Serological (anti‐WNV IgM and IgG ELISA, anti‐WNV neutralizing antibodies) and molecular tests were conducted on blood, liquor and urine of a 38‐year‐old man with encephalitis and meningitis. Overall, 2704 adult culicides from 160 mosquito catches were morphologically identified. Female mosquitoes were analysed in pools for WNV RNA detection. Serological (anti‐WNV IgM and IgG ELISA) and molecular analyses for WNV were carried out in 11 horses, 271 chickens and two dogs sampled in farms around the man's residence.

Results and conclusions

WNND was confirmed by serological analysis on patient's liquor and serum. Collected mosquito species included Culex pipiens (93.56%, CI_95% 92.64%–94.49%), Aedes albopictus (5.25%, CI_95% 4.41%–6.09%), Culex hortensis (0.59%, CI_95% 0.30%–0.88%), Culiseta longiareolata (0.55%, CI_95% 0.27%–0.83%) and Anopheles maculipennis s.l. (0.04%, CI_95% –0.04% to 0.11%). Mosquito pools were negative for WNV RNA. Two dogs (100%) and two horses (18.18%, CI_95% –4.61 to 40.97%) resulted positive for anti‐WNV specific antibodies.

The ‘One Health’ approach allowed to report the first human neuroinvasive WND in Sicily and to confirm the local circulation of WNV in animals of the same area where the clinical case occurred, defining the autochthonous origin of the infection.

The rise of West Nile Virus in Southern and Southeastern Europe: A spatial-temporal analysis investigating the combined effects of climate, land use and economic changes

West Nile Virus (WNV) has recently emerged as a major public health concern in Europe; its recent expansion also coincided with some remarkable socio-economic and environmental changes, including an economic crisis and some of the warmest temperatures on record. Here we empirically investigate the drivers of this phenomenon at a European wide scale by constructing and analyzing a unique spatial–temporal data-set, that includes data on climate, land-use, the economy, and government spending on environmental related sectors. Drivers and risk factors of WNV were identified by building a conceptual framework, and relationships were tested using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), which could capture complex non-linear relationships and also account for spatial and temporal auto-correlation. Some of the key risk factors identified in our conceptual framework, such as a higher percentage of wetlands and arable land, climate factors (higher summer rainfall and higher summer temperatures) were positive predictors of WNV infections. Interestingly, winter temperatures of between 2 °C and 6 °C were among some of the strongest predictors of annual WNV infections; one possible explanation for this result is that successful overwintering of infected adult mosquitoes (likely Culex pipiens) is key to the intensity of outbreaks for a given year. Furthermore, lower surface water extent over the summer is also associated with more intense outbreaks, suggesting that drought, which is known to induce positive changes in WNV prevalence in mosquitoes, is also contributing to the upward trend in WNV cases in affected regions. Our indicators representing the economic crisis were also strong predictors of WNV infections, suggesting there is an association between austerity and cuts to key sectors, which could have benefited vector species and the virus during this crucial period. These results, taken in the context of recent winter warming due to climate change, and more frequent droughts, may offer an explanation of why the virus has become so prevalent in Europe.

Global emergence of West Nile virus: Threat & preparedness in special perspective to India

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne single-stranded RNA neurotropic virus within the family Flaviviridae. The virus was first reported in the West Nile province of Uganda in 1937. Since then, sporadic cases have been reported until the last two decades when it has emerged as a threat to public health. The emergence of WNV with more severity in recent times is intriguing. Considering this phenomenon, the WNV-affected areas of the world were distinguished as old versus new in a depicted world map. The present review showcases the historical and epidemiological perspectives of the virus, genetic diversity of prevailing lineages and clinical spectrum associated with its infection. Emergence of the virus has been discussed in special context to India because of co-circulation of different WNV lineages/strains along with other flaviviruses. Recent laboratory diagnostics, vaccine development and clinical management associated with WNV infection have also been discussed. Further, the research gaps, especially in context to India have been highlighted that may have a pivotal role in combating the spread of WNV.

Ecological Effects on the Dynamics of West Nile Virus and Avian Plasmodium: The Importance of Mosquito Communities and Landscape

Humans and wildlife are at risk from certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and West Nile and yellow fevers. Factors linked to global change, including habitat alteration, land-use intensification, the spread of alien species, and climate change, are operating on a global scale and affect both the incidence and distribution of many vector-borne diseases. Hence, understanding the drivers that regulate the transmission of pathogens in the wild is of great importance for ecological, evolutionary, health, and economic reasons. In this literature review, we discuss the ecological factors potentially affecting the transmission of two mosquito-borne pathogens circulating naturally between birds and mosquitoes, namely, West Nile virus (WNV) and the avian malaria parasites of the genus Plasmodium. Traditionally, the study of pathogen transmission has focused only on vectors or hosts and the interactions between them, while the role of landscape has largely been ignored. However, from an ecological point of view, it is essential not only to study the interaction between each of these organisms but also to understand the environmental scenarios in which these processes take place. We describe here some of the similarities and differences in the transmission of these two pathogens and how research into both systems may facilitate a greater understanding of the dynamics of vector-borne pathogens in the wild.

Toward an Integrated System of Climate Change and Human Health Indicators: A Conceptual Framework

Environmental health indicators are helpful for tracking and communicating complex health trends, informing science and policy decisions, and evaluating public health actions. When provided on a national scale, they can help inform the general public, policy makers, and public health professionals about important trends in exposures and how well public health systems are preventing those exposures from causing adverse health outcomes. There is a growing need to understand national trends in exposures and health outcomes associated with climate change and the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies for health. To date, most indicators for health implications of climate change have been designed as independent, individual metrics. This approach fails to take into account how exposure-outcome pathways for climate-attributable health outcomes involve multiple, interconnected components. We propose reframing climate change and health indicators as a linked system of indicators, which can be described as follows: upstream climate drivers affect environmental states, which then determine human exposures, which ultimately lead to health outcomes; these climate-related risks are modified by population vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies. We apply this new conceptual framework to three illustrative climate-sensitive health outcomes and associated exposure-outcome pathways: pollen allergies and asthma, West Nile Virus infection, and vibriosis.

Effect of meteorological factors on Culex mosquitoes in Singapore: a time series analysis

Culex mosquitoes transmit West Nile virus (WNV). We examined the weather dependence of adult Culex activity. Maximum temperature and absolute humidity were positively associated with adult Culex activity. Our findings support the use of weather data in timing WNV vector control measures.

Epidemiology of human West Nile virus infections in the European Union and European Union enlargement countries, 2010 to 2018

Background

West Nile virus (WNV) circulates in an enzootic cycle involving mosquitoes and birds; humans are accidental hosts.

Aim

We analysed human WNV infections reported between 2010 and 2018 to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to better understand WNV epidemiology.

Methods

We describe probable and confirmed autochthonous human cases of WNV infection reported by European Union (EU) and EU enlargement countries. Cases with unknown clinical manifestation or with unknown place of infection at NUTS 3 or GAUL 1 level were excluded from analysis.

Results

From southern, eastern and western Europe, 3,849 WNV human infections and 379 deaths were reported. Most cases occurred between June and October. Two large outbreaks occurred, in 2010 (n = 391) and in 2018 (n = 1,993). The outbreak in 2018 was larger than in all previous years and the first cases were reported unusually early. The number of newly affected areas (n = 45) was higher in 2018 than in previous years suggesting wider spread of WNV.

Conclusion

Real-time surveillance of WNV infections is key to ensuring that clinicians and public health authorities receive early warning about the occurrence of cases and potential unusual seasonal patterns. Human cases may appear shortly after first detection of animal cases. Therefore, public health authorities should develop preparedness plans before the occurrence of human or animal WNV infections.

Seroprevalence and risk factors of West Nile virus infection in veterinarians and horses in Northern Palestine

Background and Aim

West Nile fever (WNF) is a neurotropic, mosquito-borne disease affecting humans and domesticated animals, caused by a member of the genus Flavivirus. Over the last decades, this virus has been responsible for several cases of illness in humans and animals. The current epidemiological status of WNF in horses is insufficient, and in veterinarians, as an occupational hazard is unknown. This study aimed to investigate and determine the seroprevalence and risk factors for WNF in veterinarians and horses in Palestine.

Materials and Methods

In this study, serum samples from 100 veterinarians and 87 horses were collected between August 2020 and September 2020 from different cities of Northern Palestine. West Nile virus (WNV) antibodies were detected using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.

Results

Our results showed that 60.9% of the horse serum samples were positive in all investigated cities. In horses, location is a risk factor for the seropositivity for WNF, whereas age, sex, breed, and intended use of the horses, were not associated with increased WNF seropositivity. In veterinarians, 23.0% of the serum samples were positive. Positive samples were detected in all locations, age groups, experience length, and work sectors. However, the seropositivity for WNF was not influenced by these variables.

Conclusion

The results revealed that WNV circulates in most regions of Palestine. Our results will help determine the risk of infection in animals and humans and control WNV transmission. Surveillance studies on humans, vectors, and animals are needed to better define endemic areas.

Light pollution affects West Nile virus exposure risk across Florida

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) present global health threats, and their emergences are often linked to anthropogenic change. Artificial light at night (ALAN) is one form of anthropogenic change that spans beyond urban boundaries and may be relevant to EIDs through its influence on the behaviour and physiology of hosts and/or vectors. Although West Nile virus (WNV) emergence has been described as peri-urban, we hypothesized that exposure risk could also be influenced by ALAN in particular, which is testable by comparing the effects of ALAN on prevalence while controlling for other aspects of urbanization. By modelling WNV exposure among sentinel chickens in Florida, we found strong support for a nonlinear relationship between ALAN and WNV exposure risk in chickens with peak WNV risk occurring at low ALAN levels. Although our goal was not to discern how ALAN affected WNV relative to other factors, effects of ALAN on WNV exposure were stronger than other known drivers of risk (i.e. impervious surface, human population density). Ambient temperature in the month prior to sampling, but no other considered variables, strongly influenced WNV risk. These results indicate that ALAN may contribute to spatio-temporal changes in WNV risk, justifying future investigations of ALAN on other vector-borne parasites.

Artificial light at night alters the seasonal responses of biting mosquitoes

Urban light pollution caused by artificial light at night (ALAN) profoundly affects the ecology, behavior, and physiology of plants and animals. Further, this widespread environmental pollutant has the potential to negatively impact human and animal health by changing the seasonal dynamics of disease-transmitting insects. In response to short days, females of the Northern house mosquito enter an overwintering dormancy, or diapause. While in diapause, female mosquitoes divert energy away from reproduction, cease blood-feeding, and no longer transmit disease. We demonstrate that exposure to dim ALAN (~4 lx) causes female mosquitoes to avert diapause and become reproductively active, as these females acquired less fat content, developed larger egg follicles, imbibed vertebrate blood, and produced viable eggs and larvae. Our findings suggest that mosquitoes in highly light-polluted areas such as cities may be actively reproducing and biting later in the season, thereby extending the period of disease risk for urban residents. Our results suggest that ALAN should be considered when modeling mosquito abundance, disease risk, and when deciding how long mosquito surveillance and control should persist in temperate regions.

The evolution of minimum mortality temperatures as an indicator of heat adaptation: The cases of Madrid and Seville (Spain)

The increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves is one of the most unquestionable effects of climate change. Therefore, the progressive increase in maximum temperatures will have a clear incidence on the increase in mortality, especially in countries that are vulnerable due to geographical location or their socioeconomic characteristics. Different research studies show that the mortality attributable to heat is decreasing globally, and research is centred on future scenarios. One way of detecting the existence of a lesser impact of heat is through the increase in the so-called temperature of minimum mortality (TMM). The objective of this study is to determine the temporal evolution of TMM in two Spanish provinces (Seville and Madrid) during the 1983-2018 period and to evaluate whether the rate of adaptation to heat is appropriate. We used the gross rate of daily mortality due to natural causes (CIEX: A00-R99) and the maximum daily temperature (°C) to determine the quinquennial TMM using dispersion diagrams and realizing fit using quadratic and cubic curvilinear estimation. The same analysis was carried out at the annual level, by fitting an equation to the line of TMM for each province, whose slope, if significant (p < 0.05) represents the annual rate of variation in TMM. The results observed in this quinquennial analysis showed that the TMM is higher in Seville than in Madrid and that it is higher among men than women in the two provinces. Furthermore, there was an increase in TMM in all of the quinquennium and a clear decrease in the final period. At the annual level, the linear fit was significant for Madrid for the whole population and corresponds to an increase in the TMM of 0.58 °C per decade. For Seville the linear fits were significant and the slopes of the fitted lines was 1.1 °C/decade. Both Madrid and Seville are adapting to the increase in temperatures observed over the past 36 years, and women are the group that is more susceptible to heat, compared to men. The implementation of improvements and evaluation of prevention plans to address the impact of heat waves should continue in order to ensure adequate adaptation in the future.

Detection of Japanese Encephalitis Virus in Culex Mosquitoes in Singapore

Mosquito-borne flaviviruses are emerging pathogens of an increasing global public health concern because of their rapid increase in geographical range and the impact of climate change. Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) and West Nile virus (WNV) are of concern because of the risk of reemergence and introduction by migratory birds. In Singapore, human WNV infection has never been reported and human JEV infection is rare. Four sentinel vector surveillance sites were established in Singapore to understand the potential risk posed by these viruses. Surveillance was carried out from August 2011 to December 2012 at Pulau Ubin, from March 2011 to March 2013 at an Avian Sanctuary (AS), from December 2010 from October 2012 at Murai Farmway, and from December 2010 to December 2013 at a nature reserve. The present study revealed active JEV transmission in Singapore through the detection of JEV genotype II in Culex tritaeniorhynchus collected from an Avian Sanctuary. Culex flavivirus (CxFV), similar to the Quang Binh virus isolated from Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in Vietnam and CxFV-LSFlaviV-A20-09 virus isolated in China, was also detected in Culex spp. (vishnui subgroup). No WNV was detected. This study demonstrates the important role that surveillance plays in public health and strongly suggests the circulation of JEV among wildlife in Singapore, despite the absence of reported human cases. A One Health approach involving surveillance, the collaboration between public health and wildlife managers, and control of mosquito populations remains the key measures in risk mitigation of JEV transmission in the enzootic cycle between birds and mosquitoes.

Human West Nile Meningo-Encephalitis in a Highly Endemic Country: A Complex Epidemiological Analysis on Biotic and Abiotic Risk Factors

West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most prevalent mosquito-borne viruses. Although the infection in humans is mostly asymptomatic, 15–20% of cases show flu-like symptoms with fever. In 1% of infections, humans develop severe nervous symptoms and even die, a condition known as West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND). The aim of our study was to analyze the influence of abiotic and biotic factors with the human WNND cases during the period 2015–2019. A database containing all the localities in Romania was developed. Abiotic and biotic predictors were included for each locality: geographic variables, climatic data, and biotic factors. Spatial distribution of the WNND infections was analyzed using directional distribution (DD). The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the strength of association between the WNND infections and predictors. A model was generated using the random forest ensemble learning method. A total number of 535 human WNND cases were confirmed in 308 localities. The DD showed a south-eastern geographical distribution. Weak correlation was observed between the number of human WNND cases for each year and the predictors. The highest predicted probability was around urbanized patches in the south and southeast. Increased surveillance and control measures of vectors in risk areas should be implemented and educational campaigns should be made available for the general public in order to raise awareness of the disease and inform the population about prophylactic measures.

Epidemiological hypothesis testing using a phylogeographic and phylodynamic framework

Computational analyses of pathogen genomes are increasingly used to unravel the dispersal history and transmission dynamics of epidemics. Here, we show how to go beyond historical reconstructions and use spatially-explicit phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to formally test epidemiological hypotheses. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the West Nile virus (WNV) spread in North America that has substantially impacted public, veterinary, and wildlife health. We apply an analytical workflow to a comprehensive WNV genome collection to test the impact of environmental factors on the dispersal of viral lineages and on viral population genetic diversity through time. We find that WNV lineages tend to disperse faster in areas with higher temperatures and we identify temporal variation in temperature as a main predictor of viral genetic diversity through time. By contrasting inference with simulation, we find no evidence for viral lineages to preferentially circulate within the same migratory bird flyway, suggesting a substantial role for non-migratory birds or mosquito dispersal along the longitudinal gradient.

Contrasted Epidemiological Patterns of West Nile Virus Lineages 1 and 2 Infections in France from 2015 to 2019

Since 2015, annual West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks of varying intensities have been reported in France. Recent intensification of enzootic WNV circulation was observed in the South of France with most horse cases detected in 2015 (n = 49), 2018 (n = 13), and 2019 (n = 13). A WNV lineage 1 strain was isolated from a horse suffering from West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) during the 2015 episode in the Camargue area. A breaking point in WNV epidemiology was achieved in 2018, when WNV lineage 2 emerged in Southeastern areas. This virus most probably originated from WNV spread from Northern Italy and caused WNND in humans and the death of diurnal raptors. WNV lineage 2 emergence was associated with the most important human WNV epidemics identified so far in France (n = 26, including seven WNND cases and two infections in blood and organ donors). Two other major findings were the detection of WNV in areas with no or limited history of WNV circulation (Alpes-Maritimes in 2018, Corsica in 2018–2019, and Var in 2019) and distinct spatial distribution of human and horse WNV cases. These new data reinforce the necessity to enhance French WNV surveillance to better anticipate future WNV epidemics and epizootics and to improve the safety of blood and organ donations.

Predicting WNV Circulation in Italy Using Earth Observation Data and Extreme Gradient Boosting Model

West Nile Disease (WND) is one of the most spread zoonosis in Italy and Europe caused by a vector-borne virus. Its transmission cycle is well understood, with birds acting as the primary hosts and mosquito vectors transmitting the virus to other birds, while humans and horses are occasional dead-end hosts. Identifying suitable environmental conditions across large areas containing multiple species of potential hosts and vectors can be difficult. The recent and massive availability of Earth Observation data and the continuous development of innovative Machine Learning methods can contribute to automatically identify patterns in big datasets and to make highly accurate identification of areas at risk. In this paper, we investigated the West Nile Virus (WNV) circulation in relation to Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Surface Soil Moisture collected during the 160 days before the infection took place, with the aim of evaluating the predictive capacity of lagged remotely sensed variables in the identification of areas at risk for WNV circulation. WNV detection in mosquitoes, birds and horses in 2017, 2018 and 2019, has been collected from the National Information System for Animal Disease Notification. An Extreme Gradient Boosting model was trained with data from 2017 and 2018 and tested for the 2019 epidemic, predicting the spatio-temporal WNV circulation two weeks in advance with an overall accuracy of 0.84. This work lays the basis for a future early warning system that could alert public authorities when climatic and environmental conditions become favourable to the onset and spread of WNV.

Geographical Genetic Variation and Sources of Korean Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations

Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) is a mosquito vector raising global health concerns owing to its transmission of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses. This vector accounts for a large proportion of the Korean mosquito community; however, autochthonous clinical cases resulting from this species remain unreported in South Korea. This study aimed to examine the geographical genetic variations and sources of Ae. albopictus populations in South Korea exclusively on the basis of COI gene analysis from 292 samples collected from 37 localities in 2016-2018 and 290 reference sequences from GenBank. Thirty-eight haplotypes were identified among the 292 Ae. albopictus samples, with H1 (n = 190, 65.1%), H29 (n = 24, 8.22%), and H32 (n = 24, 8.22%) being the most common and widely distributed haplotypes in the mainland, southern coastal region, and Jeju Island, respectively. In general, high haplotype (≥0.5; 44.7%) and low nucleotide (≤0.00148 max.) diversity were observed in these populations. Based on eight regional groups, results of neutral tests and a mismatch analysis supported demographic expansions after bottlenecks. Furthermore, analysis of molecular variance, FST, and K2P distance showed that Gyeongsangnam-do, Jeju Island, and mainland groups were genetically differentiated. Haplotype network and phylogenetic analyses revealed that the sources of the main haplotypes are related to strains from other countries. The current findings need to be validated with additional sampling from heterogeneous habitats and different genetic markers. However, our results suggest that haplotype changes should be closely monitored for efficient vector surveillance and control.

A 15 Year Evaluation of West Nile Virus in Wisconsin: Effects on Wildlife and Human Health

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most important and widespread mosquito-borne virus in the United States (U.S.). WNV has the ability to spread rapidly and effectively, infecting more than 320 bird and mammalian species. An examination of environmental conditions and the health of keystone species may help predict the susceptibility of various habitats to WNV and reveal key risk factors, annual trends, and vulnerable regions. Since 2002, WNV outbreaks in Wisconsin varied by species, place, and time, significantly affected by unique climatic, environmental, and geographical factors. During a 15 year period, WNV was detected in 71 of 72 counties, resulting in 239 human and 1397 wildlife cases. Controlling for population and sampling efforts in Wisconsin, rates of WNV are highest in the western and northwestern rural regions of the state. WNV incidence rates were highest in counties with low human population densities, predominantly wetland, and at elevations greater than 1000 feet. Resources for surveillance, prevention, and detection of WNV were lowest in rural counties, likely resulting in underestimation of cases. Overall, increasing mean temperature and decreasing precipitation showed positive influence on WNV transmission in Wisconsin. This study incorporates the first statewide assessment of WNV in Wisconsin.