Local, national, and regional viral haemorrhagic fever pandemic potential in Africa: a multistage analysis

Serological Evidence of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever in Livestock in the Omaheke Region of Namibia

This research examined the positivity ratio of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) antibodies in cattle and sheep within Namibia's Omaheke region after a human disease outbreak in the same geographical area. A total of 200 samples (100 cattle and 100 sheep) were randomly collected from animals brought to two regional auction sites, and then tested using the ID Screen® CCHF Double Antigen Multi-Species Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay kit. Of the cattle samples, 36% tested positive, while 22% of the sheep samples were seropositive. The cattle had a significantly higher positivity ratio than sheep at the individual animal level (p = 0.0291). At the herd level, 62.5% of cattle herds and 45.5% of sheep flocks had at least one positive animal, but this difference was statistically insignificant (p = 0.2475). The fourteen cattle farms with at least one seropositive animal were dispersed across the Omaheke region. In contrast, the ten sheep farms with seropositive cases were predominantly situated in the southern half of the region. The study concluded that the CCHF is endemic in the Omaheke region and likely in most of Namibia, underscoring the importance of continued surveillance and preventive measures to mitigate the impact of CCHFV on animal health and potential spillover into human populations.

Concordance between MITS and conventional autopsies for pathological and virological diagnoses

In pandemics or to further study highly contagious infectious diseases, new strategies are needed for the collection of post-mortem tissue samples to identify the pathogen as well as its morphological impact. In this study, an ultrasound-guided minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) protocol was developed and validated for post-mortem use. The histological and microbiological qualities of post-mortem specimens were evaluated and compared between MITS and conventional autopsy (CA) in a series of COVID-19 deaths. Thirty-six ultrasound-guided MITS were performed. In five cases more, specimens for histological and virological examination were also obtained and compared during the subsequently performed CA. Summary statistics and qualitative interpretations (positive, negative) were calculated for each organ tissue sample from MITS and CA, and target genes were determined for both human cell count (beta-globin) and virus (SARS-CoV-2 specific E gene). There are no significant differences between MITS and CA with respect to the detectability of viral load in individual organs, which is why MITS can be of utmost importance and an useful alternative, especially during outbreaks of infectious diseases.

Investigating Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus seropositivity in camels and human behavioural risks in an abattoir in Nigeria

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is an emerging viral pathogen with pandemic potential that is often misdiagnosed. Case fatality in low-resource settings could be up to 40% due to close contact between animals and humans. A two-year cross-sectional study was conducted in Fagge abattoir, Kano State, Nigeria, to estimate the seropositivity of CCHFV in camels using a commercial multi-species competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). A closed-ended questionnaire was administered to the abattoir workers to assess their awareness, mitigation, and behavioural practices associated with CCHF. Of the 184 camels tested, 179 (97%) were seropositive for CCHFV (95% confidence interval (CI): 93.77, 99.11). The median (interquartile range (IQR)) age of respondents was 41 (35-52), with 62% having no education. Respondents had little knowledge about CCHFV and the concept of zoonotic disease. In this study, the high estimated prevalence of antibodies to CCHFV in camels highlights the heightened risk of transmission of CCHFV in Nigeria. Similarly, a concerning lack of knowledge and inadequate preventive practices, alongside a prevalence of high-risk behaviours associated with CCHF among abattoir workers, were noted in this study. Thus, there is an urgent need for comprehensive public health education and collaborative One Health strategies to avert the threats of spillover events.

Zoonoses research in Somalia: A scoping review using a One Health approach

Zoonoses are likely to cause a substantial burden on both human and animal health systems in Somalia, given the close proximity between the pastoralist majority and their livestock. However, decades of instability leading to weak disease surveillance have meant that data on the burden of zoonoses is lacking. The aim of this scoping review was to assess and synthesize the available literature on the presence and burden of zoonoses in Somalia. We used keywords to search Web of Science for relevant publications. Studies were included if they contained relevant data on a zoonosis and were undertaken in Somalia or were undertaken in another country where exposure could reasonably be assumed to have occurred in Somalia (e.g., migrants/refugees, returning soldiers, exported animals). Studies were not included if they focused on Somali ethnic communities permanently living elsewhere or if zoonotic aspects were not considered. We extracted data on disease(s) reported, geographic focus, data reported (human, animal, environment), study design and author affiliation. A total of 22 zoonotic infections were documented in 76 publications. The most frequently studied diseases were Rift Valley Fever (n = 15, 17%), brucellosis (n = 13, 14%) and hepatitis E (n = 10, 11%). Around 30% of papers reported data from relevant populations outside Somalia. Only 18 papers undertook laboratory analysis within Somalia. Most papers reported data on humans (45%) and animals (36%) with limited research on the environmental domain. Descriptive studies (47%) dominated and most were led by non-Somali researchers (89% in first authors and 95% of last authors). This study highlights the need for well-designed zoonoses research in Somalia supported by capacity building of local researchers and investments in diagnostic laboratories.

Micro- and nanosystems for the detection of hemorrhagic fever viruses

Hemorrhagic fever viruses (HFVs) are virulent pathogens that can cause severe and often fatal illnesses in humans. Timely and accurate detection of HFVs is critical for effective disease management and prevention. In recent years, micro- and nano-technologies have emerged as promising approaches for the detection of HFVs. This paper provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art systems for micro- and nano-scale approaches to detect HFVs. It covers various aspects of these technologies, including the principles behind their sensing assays, as well as the different types of diagnostic strategies that have been developed. This paper also explores future possibilities of employing micro- and nano-systems for the development of HFV diagnostic tools that meet the practical demands of clinical settings.

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in Central, Eastern, and South-eastern Asia

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), caused by Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV), is endemic in Africa, Asia, and Europe, but CCHF epidemiology and epizootiology is only rudimentarily defined for most regions. Here we summarize what is known about CCHF in Central, Eastern, and South-eastern Asia. Searching multiple international and country-specific databases using a One Health approach, we defined disease risk and burden through identification of CCHF cases, anti-CCHFV antibody prevalence, and CCHFV isolation from vector ticks. We identified 2313 CCHF cases that occurred in 1944-2021 in the three examined regions. Central Asian countries reported the majority of cases (2,026). In Eastern Asia, China was the only country that reported CCHF cases (287). In South-eastern Asia, no cases were reported. Next, we leveraged our previously established classification scheme to assign countries to five CCHF evidence levels. Six countries (China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) were assigned to level 1 or level 2 based on CCHF case reports and the maturity of the countries' surveillance systems. Two countries (Mongolia and Myanmar) were assigned to level 3 due to evidence of CCHFV circulation in the absence of reported CCHF cases. Thirteen countries in Eastern and South-eastern Asia were categorized in levels 4 and 5 based on prevalence of CCHFV vector ticks. Collectively, this paper describes the past and present status of CCHF reporting to inform international and local public-health agencies to strengthen or establish CCHFV surveillance systems and address shortcomings.

The First Molecular Detection of Aedes albopictus in Sudan Associates with Increased Outbreaks of Chikungunya and Dengue

As part of our surveys of the invasive malaria vector Anopheles stephensi in four Sudanese states, including North and South Kordofan, Sennar, and White Nile, we collected 166 larvae. Our morphological identification confirmed that 30% of the collected mosquito samples were Anopheles species, namely An. gambiae s.l. and An. stephensi, while the 117 Aedes specimens were Ae. luteocephalus (39%), Ae. aegypti (32%), Ae. vexans (9%), Ae. vittatus (9%), Ae. africanus (6%), Ae. metalicus (3%), and Ae. albopictus (3%). Considering the serious threat of Ae. albopictus emergence for the public health in the area and our limited resources, we prioritized Ae. albopictus samples for further genomic analysis. We extracted the DNA from the three specimens and subsequently sequenced the cytochrome oxidase 1 (CO1) gene and confirmed their identity as Aedes albopictus and their potential origin by phylogenetic and haplotype analyses. Aedes albopictus, originating from Southeast Asia, is an invasive key vector of chikungunya and dengue. This is the first report and molecular characterization of Ae. albopictus from Sudan. Our sequences cluster with populations from the Central African Republic and La Réunion. Worryingly, this finding associates with a major increase in chikungunya and dengue outbreaks in rural areas of the study region and might be linked to the mosquito’s spread across the region. The emergence of Ae. albopictus in Sudan is of serious public health concern and urges for the improvement of the vector surveillance and control system through the implementation of an integrated molecular xenosurveillance. The threat of major arboviral diseases in the region underlines the need for the institutionalization of the One Health strategy for the prevention and control of future pandemics.

Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades.

A participatory epidemiological and One Health approach to explore the community’s capacity to detect emerging zoonoses and surveillance network opportunities in the forest region of Guinea

The Ebola virus disease epidemic that threatened West Africa between 2013 and 2016 was of unprecedented health magnitude. After this health crisis, studies highlighted the need to introduce community-based surveillance systems and to adopt a One Health approach. This study aimed to provide preparatory insights for the definition of a community-based surveillance system for emerging zoonoses such as viral hemorrhagic fevers in Guinea. The objective was to explore the disease detection capacity and the surveillance network opportunities at the community level in two pilot areas in the forest region of Guinea, where the epidemic emerged. Based on a participatory epidemiological and One Health approach, we conducted Focus Group Discussions with human, animal and ecosystem health actors. We used a range of participatory tools, included semi-structured interviews, ranking, scoring and flow diagram, to estimate the local knowledge and perception of diseases and clinical signs and to investigate the existing health information exchange network and its related strengths and weaknesses. The results showed that there is heterogeneity in knowledge of diseases and perception of the clinical signs among actors and that there are preferred and more effective health communication channels opportunities. This preparatory study suggests that it is necessary to adapt the case definitions and the health communication channels to the different actors who can play a role in a future community-based surveillance system and provides recommendations for future surveillance activities to be carried out in West Africa.

Viral hemorrhagic diseases have a high risk of emergence in tropical regions. The consequences on public health are often disastrous in the low- and middle-income countries that face difficulties to control epidemics. This scenario has unfortunately occurred in West Africa between 2013 and 2016 with the Ebola virus disease epidemic. There is an urgent need to increase the capacity for rapid detection of the emergence of such diseases and adopting a One Health approach since most of them are zoonotic. Community-based surveillance seems appropriate to address this issue in the context of these countries. We collected preparatory data through semi-structured interviews of community actors in human health, animal health and ecosystem health in Guinea. We used participatory epidemiology that appears to be a consistent method to assess local knowledge and perceptions of diseases and clinical signs and to identify health information exchange network opportunities. We aimed to provide relevant recommendations for the design of adapted case definitions and surveillance network in the prospect of implementing a community-based surveillance system of viral hemorrhagic fevers in Guinea and future surveillance activities to be carried out in West Africa.

Epidemics of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) in Sudan between 2010 and 2020

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a zoonotic arboviral disease that poses a great threat to global health in the Old World, and it is endemic in Europe, Asia, and Africa, including Sudan. In this retrospective study, we reviewed previous epidemiological reports about the major epidemics of CCHF throughout Sudan between 2010 and 2020. During these epidemics, the infection of humans with Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV), the causative agent of CCHF, was diagnosed using qRT-PCR. We have identified 88 cases of CCHF, including 13 fatalities reported during five epidemics that occurred in 2010, 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2020. The two epidemics in 2010 and 2011 were by far the largest, with 51 and 27 cases reported, respectively. The majority of cases (78%) were reported in the endemic region of Kordofan. Here, we document that the first emergence of CCHFV in the Darfur region, West Sudan, occurred in 2010. We were not able to investigate outbreak dynamics through phylogenetic analysis due to the limited diagnostic capacity and the lack of sequencing services in the country. These findings call for establishing a genomic-based integrated One Health surveillance and response system for the early preparedness, prevention, and control of CCHF in the country.

History and classification of Aigai virus (formerly Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus genotype VI)

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is the medically most important member of the rapidly expanding bunyaviral family Nairoviridae. Traditionally, CCHFV isolates have been assigned to six distinct genotypes. Here, the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) Nairoviridae Study Group outlines the reasons for the recent decision to re-classify genogroup VI (aka Europe-2 or AP-92-like) as a distinct virus, Aigai virus (AIGV).

Temporal Evaluation of Insecticide Resistance in Populations of the Major Arboviral Vector Aedes Aegypti from Northern Nigeria

To support evidence-based control measures, two Nigerian Aedes populations (BUK and Pantami) were characterised. Larval bioassay using temephos and deltamethrin revealed a significant increase in deltamethrin resistance, with LC50 of 0.018mg/L (resistance ratio compared to New Orleans, RR = 2.250) in 2018 increasing ~6-fold, by 2019 (LC50 = 0.100mg/L, RR = 12.5), and ~11-fold in 2020 (LC50 = 0.198mg/L, RR = 24.750). For the median deltamethrin concentration (0.05mg/L), a gradual decrease in mortality was observed, from 50.6% in 2018, to 44.9% in 2019, and 34.2% in 2020. Extremely high DDT resistance was observed, with <3% mortalities and LT50s of 352.87 min, 369.19 min and 406.94 min in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. Significant temporal increase in resistance was observed towards ƛ-cyhalothrin (a type II pyrethroid) over three years. Synergist bioassays with diethylmaleate and piperonylbutoxide significantly recovered DDT and ƛ-cyhalothrin susceptibility respectively, implicating glutathione S-transferases and CYP450s. Cone bioassays revealed increased resistance to the PermaNet® 3.0, side panels (mortalities of 94% in 2018, 66.4% in 2019, and 73.6% in 2020), while full susceptibility was obtained with the roof of PermaNet® 3.0. The F1534C kdr mutation occurred in low frequency, with significant correlation between heterozygote genotypes and DDT resistance. This temporal increase in resistance is a major challenge for control of this vector of public health importance.

Clinical presentations, diagnostics, treatments and treatment costs of children and adults with febrile illness in a tertiary referral hospital in south-eastern Guinea: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study

Background

Febrile illness is frequent among patients in the tropics. It is caused by a wide variety of common diseases such as malaria or gastrointestinal infections but also by less common but highly contagious pathogens with epidemic potential. This study describes the clinical features of adult and paediatric patients with febrile illness in in the largest tertiary referral hospital in south-eastern Guinea, a region at high risk for viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks. The study further compares their diagnostic characteristics, treatments and outcomes with non-febrile patients in order to contribute to the local epidemiology of febrile illness.

Methods

We used retrospective data collection to record demographic and clinical data of all incoming patients during a study period of three months. For the follow-up study of inpatients, we retrospectively reviewed patient charts for diagnostic characteristics, diagnoses and outcomes.

Results

Of the 4317 incoming patients during the study period, 9.5% had a febrile illness. The most used diagnostic measures to identify causative agents in febrile patients were point-of-care tests and most treatments relied on antibiotics. Most common discharge diagnoses for febrile inpatients were malaria (9.6% adults, 56.7% children), salmonella gastroenteritis/typhoid (10.6% adults, 7.8% children) and respiratory infection/pneumonia (5.3% adults, 18.7% children). Inpatient mortality for children was significantly higher in febrile than non-febrile children (18.5% vs. 5.1%, p<0.001) and considerably higher in febrile than non-febrile adults (29.8% vs. 25.0%, p = 0.404).

Conclusions

Malaria, respiratory infection and gastroenteritis are considered the main causes for febrile illness. The wide reliance on rapid diagnostic tests to diagnose febrile patients not only risks to over- or under-diagnose certain diseases but also leaves the possibility of highly infectious diseases in febrile patients unexplored. Furthermore, the heavy reliance on antibiotics risks to cause antimicrobial resistance. High mortality rates in febrile patients, especially children, should be of concern to public health authorities.

Seroprevalence and Risk Factors of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever in Cattle of Smallholder Farmers in Central Malawi

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is endemic in Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe where it circulates among animals and ticks causing sporadic outbreaks in humans. Although CCHF is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa, epidemiological information is lacking in many countries, including Malawi. To assess the risk of CCHF in Malawi, we conducted an epidemiological study in cattle reared by smallholder livestock farmers in central Malawi. A cross-sectional study was conducted in April 2020 involving seven districts, four from Kasungu and three from Lilongwe Agriculture Development Divisions. A structured questionnaire was administered to farmers to obtain demographic, animal management, and ecological risk factors data. Sera were collected from randomly selected cattle and screened for CCHF virus (CCHFV) specific antibodies using a commercial ELISA kit. Ticks were collected from cattle and classified morphologically to species level. An overall CCHFV seropositivity rate of 46.9% (n = 416; 95% CI: 42.0–51.8%) was observed. The seropositivity was significantly associated with the age of cattle (p < 0.001), sex (p < 0.001), presence of ticks in herds (p = 0.01), district (p = 0.025), and type of grazing lands (p = 0.013). Five species of ticks were identified, including Hyalomma truncatum, a known vector of CCHFV. Ticks of the species Hyalomma truncatum were not detected in two districts with the highest seroprevalence for CCHF and vector competency must be further explored in the study area. To our knowledge, this is the first report of serologic evidence of the presence of CCHV among smallholder cattle in central Malawi. This study emphasizes the need for continued monitoring of CCHFV infection among livestock, ticks, and humans for the development of data-based risk mitigation strategies.

The science of the host-virus network

Better methods to predict and prevent the emergence of zoonotic viruses could support future efforts to reduce the risk of epidemics. We propose a network science framework for understanding and predicting human and animal susceptibility to viral infections. Related approaches have so far helped to identify basic biological rules that govern cross-species transmission and structure the global virome. We highlight ways to make modelling both accurate and actionable, and discuss the barriers that prevent researchers from translating viral ecology into public health policies that could prevent future pandemics.

The Influence of War and Conflict on Infectious Disease: A Rapid Review of Historical Lessons We Have Yet to Learn

Armed conflicts degrade established healthcare systems, which typically manifests as a resurgence of preventable infectious diseases. While 70% of deaths globally are now from non-communicable disease; in low-income countries, respiratory infections, diarrheal illness, malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDs are all in the top 10 causes of death. The burden of these infectious diseases is exacerbated by armed conflict, translating into even more dramatic long-term consequences. This rapid evidence review searched electronic databases in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. Of 381 identified publications, 73 were included in this review. Several authors indicate that the impact of infectious diseases increases in wars and armed conflicts due to disruption to surveillance and response systems that were often poorly developed to begin with. Although the true impact of conflict on infectious disease spread is not known and requires further research, the link between them is indisputable. Current decision-making management systems are insufficient and only pass the baton to the next unwary generation.

Scoping future outbreaks: a scoping review on the outbreak prediction of the WHO Blueprint list of priority diseases

BACKGROUND

The WHO's Research and Development Blueprint priority list designates emerging diseases with the potential to generate public health emergencies for which insufficient preventive solutions exist. The list aims to reduce the time to the availability of resources that can avert public health crises. The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic illustrates that an effective method of mitigating such crises is the pre-emptive prediction of outbreaks. This scoping review thus aimed to map and identify the evidence available to predict future outbreaks of the Blueprint diseases.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Embase and Web of Science related to the evidence predicting future outbreaks of Ebola and Marburg virus, Zika virus, Lassa fever, Nipah and Henipaviral disease, Rift Valley fever, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome and Disease X. Prediction methods, outbreak features predicted and implementation of predictions were evaluated. We conducted a narrative and quantitative evidence synthesis to highlight prediction methods that could be further investigated for the prevention of Blueprint diseases and COVID-19 outbreaks.

RESULTS

Out of 3959 articles identified, we included 58 articles based on inclusion criteria. 5 major prediction methods emerged; the most frequent being spatio-temporal risk maps predicting outbreak risk periods and locations through vector and climate data. Stochastic models were predominant. Rift Valley fever was the most predicted disease. Diseases with complex sociocultural factors such as Ebola were often predicted through multifactorial risk-based estimations. 10% of models were implemented by health authorities. No article predicted Disease X outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

Spatiotemporal models for diseases with strong climatic and vectorial components, as in River Valley fever prediction, may currently best reduce the time to the availability of resources. A wide literature gap exists in the prediction of zoonoses with complex sociocultural and ecological dynamics such as Ebola, COVID-19 and especially Disease X.

A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú

Background

A proactive approach to preventing and responding to emerging infectious diseases is critical to global health security. We present a three-stage approach to modeling the spatial distribution of outbreak vulnerability to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú.

Methods

Extending a framework developed for modeling hemorrhagic fever vulnerability in Africa, we modeled outbreak vulnerability in three stages: index case potential (stage 1), outbreak receptivity (stage 2), and epidemic potential (stage 3), stratifying scores on season and El Niño events. Subsequently, we evaluated the validity of these scores using dengue surveillance data and spatial models.

Results

We found high validity for stage 1 and 2 scores, but not stage 3 scores. Vulnerability was highest in Selva Baja and Costa, and in summer and during El Niño events, with index case potential (stage 1) being high in both regions but outbreak receptivity (stage 2) being generally high in Selva Baja only.

Conclusions

Stage 1 and 2 scores are well-suited to predicting outbreaks of Ae. aegypti-vectored diseases in this setting, however stage 3 scores appear better suited to diseases with direct human-to-human transmission. To prevent outbreaks, measures to detect index cases should be targeted to both Selva Baja and Costa, while Selva Baja should be prioritized for healthcare system strengthening. Successful extension of this framework from hemorrhagic fevers in Africa to an arbovirus in Latin America indicates its broad utility for outbreak and pandemic preparedness and response activities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06530-9.

The Emergence of Rift Valley Fever in Gedaref State Urges the Need for a Cross-Border One Health Strategy and Enforcement of the International Health Regulations

This study investigated the causative agent of a haemorrhagic fever epidemic in Gedaref state, south-east Sudan. Six cases of febrile illness with haemorrhagic manifestations presented at outpatient health-clinics. Blood samples were collected from the patients and shipped to Khartoum where they were tested for dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) using real-time qPCR. Fifty percent (3/6) of them tested positive for RVFV and neither DENV or CHIKV was detected. All patients were males between 20 and 48 years old who had no history of recent travel. This finding describes the first emergence of RVFV in Gedaref state. Considering that the state hosts a major market of livestock, and it has one of the largest-seasonal open pastures in the country that is usually flooded with herds from the neighbouring states and countries during the rainy season, this emergence could represent a major threat to public health in the region and countries importing animals and/or animal products from east Africa. Therefore, we urge the policymakers of the health and animal resources sectors to implement a one health strategy with a well-established early warning surveillance and response system to prevent the establishment of the disease in the area.

Differential Laboratory Diagnosis of Acute Fever in Guinea: Preparedness for the Threat of Hemorrhagic Fevers

Acute febrile illnesses occur frequently in Guinea. Acute fever itself is not a unique, hallmark indication (pathognomonic sign) of any one illness or disease. In the infectious disease context, fever's underlying cause can be a wide range of viral or bacterial pathogens, including the Ebola virus. In this study, molecular and serological methods were used to analyze samples from patients hospitalized with acute febrile illness in various regions of Guinea. This analysis was undertaken with the goal of accomplishing differential diagnosis (determination of causative pathogen) in such cases. As a result, a number of pathogens, both viral and bacterial, were identified in Guinea as causative agents behind acute febrile illness. In approximately 60% of the studied samples, however, a definitive determination could not be made.

Epidemiology of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) in Africa-Underestimated for Decades

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in Africa, but the epidemiology remains to be defined. Using a broad database search, we reviewed the literature to better define CCHF evidence in Africa. We used a One Health approach to define the impact of CCHF by reviewing case reports, human and animal serology, and records of CCHF virus (CCHFV) isolations (1956-mid-2020). In addition, published and unpublished collection data were used to estimate the geographic distribution of Hyalomma ticks and infection vectors. We implemented a previously proposed classification scheme for organizing countries into five categories by the level of evidence. From January 1, 1956 to July 25, 2020, 494 CCHF cases (115 lethal) were reported in Africa. Since 2000, nine countries (Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, Sudan, and Tunisia) have reported their first CCHF cases. Nineteen countries reported CCHF cases and were assigned level 1 or level 2 based on maturity of their surveillance system. Thirty countries with evidence of CCHFV circulation in the absence of CCHF cases were assigned level 3 or level 4. Twelve countries for which no data were available were assigned level 5. The goal of this review is to inform international organizations, local governments, and healthcare professionals about shortcomings in CCHF surveillance in Africa to assist in a movement toward strengthening policy to improve CCHF surveillance.

Lassa fever in Benin: description of the 2014 and 2016 epidemics and genetic characterization of a new Lassa virus

We report two outbreaks of Lassa fever that occurred in Benin in 2014 and 2016 with 20 confirmed cases and 50% (10/20) mortality. Benin was not previously considered to be an endemic country for Lassa fever, resulting in a delay to diagnose the disease and its human transmission. Molecular investigations showed the viral genomes to be similar to that of the Togo strain, which is genetically very different from other known strains and confirms the existence of a new lineage. Endemic circulation of Lassa virus in a new territory and the genetic diversity thus confirm that this virus represents a growing threat for West African people. Given the divergence of the Benin strain from the prototypic Josiah Sierra Leone strain frequently used to generate vaccine candidates, the efficacy of vaccine candidates should also be demonstrated with this strain.

Bridging the gap: Using reservoir ecology and human serosurveys to estimate Lassa virus spillover in West Africa

Forecasting the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir populations of wild or domestic animals is essential for the effective deployment of interventions such as wildlife vaccination or culling. Due to the sporadic nature of spillover events and limited availability of data, developing and validating robust, spatially explicit, predictions is challenging. Recent efforts have begun to make progress in this direction by capitalizing on machine learning methodologies. An important weakness of existing approaches, however, is that they generally rely on combining human and reservoir infection data during the training process and thus conflate risk attributable to the prevalence of the pathogen in the reservoir population with the risk attributed to the realized rate of spillover into the human population. Because effective planning of interventions requires that these components of risk be disentangled, we developed a multi-layer machine learning framework that separates these processes. Our approach begins by training models to predict the geographic range of the primary reservoir and the subset of this range in which the pathogen occurs. The spillover risk predicted by the product of these reservoir specific models is then fit to data on realized patterns of historical spillover into the human population. The result is a geographically specific spillover risk forecast that can be easily decomposed and used to guide effective intervention. Applying our method to Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that regularly spills over into the human population across West Africa, results in a model that explains a modest but statistically significant portion of geographic variation in historical patterns of spillover. When combined with a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics, our spillover risk model predicts that 897,700 humans are infected by Lassa virus each year across West Africa, with Nigeria accounting for more than half of these human infections.

The 2019 emergence of SARS-CoV-2 is a grim reminder of the threat animal-borne pathogens pose to human health. Even prior to SARS-CoV-2, the spillover of pathogens from animal reservoirs was a persistent problem, with pathogens such as Ebola, Nipah, and Lassa regularly but unpredictably causing outbreaks. Machine-learning models that anticipate when and where pathogen transmission from animals to humans is likely to occur would help guide surveillance efforts and preemptive countermeasures like information campaigns or vaccination programs. We develop a novel machine learning framework that uses datasets describing the distribution of a virus within its host and the range of its animal host, along with data on spatial patterns of human immunity, to infer rates of animal-to-human transmission across a region. By training the model on data from the animal host alone, our framework allows rigorous validation of spillover predictions using human data. We apply our framework to Lassa fever, a viral disease of West Africa that is spread to humans by rodents, and use the predictions to update estimates of Lassa virus infections in humans. Our results suggest that Nigeria is most at risk for the emergence of Lassa virus, and should be prioritized for outbreak-surveillance.

Serological and molecular study of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus in cattle from selected districts in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) is a severe tick-borne viral hemorrhagic disease caused by Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus (CCHFV) that poses serious public health challenges in many parts of Africa, Europe and Asia.

METHODS

We examined 500 cattle sera samples from five districts for CCHFV antibodies using in-house and commercially available (IDVet) ELISA, Immunofluorescent assay (IFA) and Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).

RESULTS

500 cattle (73.8 % females) were analyzed; CCHFV seropositivity was 12.6 % (n = 63) and 75.0 % (n = 375) with the in-house and IDVet ELISAs, respectively. Seropositivity was associated with geographical location, increasing age, being female, and having a higher tick burden. Twenty four out of the 37 (64.8 %) were seropositive for CCHFV using IFA and all were negative for virus on RT-PCR. The IFA results were more comparable to IDVet (κ_coefficient = 0.88, p = <0.01) than to in-house (κ_coefficient = 0.32, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirmed the presence and high prevalence of anti-CCHF antibodies in cattle based on three methods from all the five study districts, confirming presence and exposure of CCHFV. Given the zoonotic potential for CCHFV, we recommend a multidisciplinary public health surveillance and epidemiology of CCHFV in both animals and humans throughout the country.

Period prevalence and identification challenges of viral haemorrhagic fever suspect cases in a tertiary referral hospital in Guinea: a cross-sectional, retrospective study of triage and emergency room patient profiles

Background

A functioning Viral Haemorrhagic Fever (VHF) surveillance system in countries at risk for outbreaks can reduce early transmission in case of an outbreak. Surveillance performance depends on the application of suspect case definitions in daily clinical practice. Recommended suspect case criteria during outbreaks are designed for high sensitivity and include general symptoms, pyrexia, haemorrhage, epidemiological link and unexplained death in patients. Non-outbreak criteria are narrower, relying on the persistence of fever and the presence of haemorrhagic signs.

Methods

This study ascertains VHF suspect case prevalence based on outbreak and non-outbreak criteria in a Guinean regional hospital for a period of three months. The study further describes clinical trajectories of patients who meet non-outbreak VHF suspect case criteria in order to discuss challenges in their identification. We used cross-sectional data collection at triage and emergency room to record demographic and clinical data of all admitted patients during the study period. For the follow-up study with description of diagnostic trajectories of VHF suspect cases, we used retrospective chart review.

Results

The most common symptoms of all patients upon admission were fever, tiredness/weakness and abdominal pain. 686 patients met EVD outbreak criteria, ten adult patients and two paediatric patients met study-specific non-outbreak VHF suspect case criteria. None of the suspect cases was treated as VHF suspect case and none tested positive for malaria upon admission. Their most frequent discharge diagnosis was unspecific gastrointestinal infection. The most common diagnostic measures were haemoglobin level and glycaemia for both adults and for children; of the requested examinations for hospitalized suspect cases, 36% were not executed or obtained. Half of those patients self-discharged against medical advice.

Conclusions

Our study shows that the number of VHF suspect cases may vary greatly depending on which suspect case criteria are applied. Identification of VHF suspect cases seems challenging in clinical practice. We suggest that this may be due to the low use of laboratory diagnostics to support certain diagnoses and the non-application of VHF suspect case definitions in clinical practice. Future VHF suspect case management should aim to tackle such challenges in comparable hospital settings.

Lessons Learned from Reinforcing Epidemiologic Surveillance During the 2017 Ebola Outbreak in the Likati District, Democratic Republic of the Congo

On May 12, 2017, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) publicly declared an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Likati District of the Bas-Uélé Province, 46 days after the index case became symptomatic. The delayed EVD case detection and reporting highlights the importance of establishing real-time surveillance, consistent with the Global Health Security Agenda. We describe lessons learned from implementing improved EVD case detection and reporting strategies at the outbreak epicenter and make recommendations for future response efforts. The strategies included daily coordination meetings to enhance effective and efficient outbreak response activities, assessment and adaptation of case definitions and reporting tools, establishment of a community alert system using context-appropriate technology, training facility and community health workers on adapted case definitions and reporting procedures, development of context-specific plans for outbreak data management, and strengthened operational support for communications and information-sharing networks. Post-outbreak, surveillance officials should preemptively plan for the next outbreak by developing emergency response plans, evaluating the case definitions and reporting tools used, retraining on revised case definitions, and developing responsive strategies for overcoming telecommunications and technology challenges. The ongoing EVD outbreak in the North Kivu and Ituri provinces of DRC, currently the second largest EVD outbreak in history, demonstrates that documentation of successful context-specific strategies and tools are needed to combat the next outbreak. The lessons learned from the rapid containment of the EVD outbreak in Likati can be applied to the DRC and other rural low-resource settings to ensure readiness for future zoonotic disease outbreaks.

Informing Rift Valley Fever preparedness by mapping seasonally varying environmental suitability

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Database of Rift Valley Fever occurrences from 46 countries over 22 years.

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Predictions of Rift Valley Fever suitability for every month over 1995–2016.

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Identifies areas at-risk by synthesizing time-series of environmental predictions.

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We use human and livestock data to identify possible hotspots of disease spillover.

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We identify places where long-term and routine preparation efforts should be focused.

Background

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) poses a threat to human and animal health throughout much of Africa and the Middle East and has been recognized as a global health security priority and a key preparedness target.

Methods

We combined RVF occurrence data from a systematic literature review with animal notification data from an online database. Using boosted regression trees, we made monthly environmental suitability predictions from January 1995 to December 2016 at a 5 × 5-km resolution throughout regions of Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. We calculated the average number of months per year suitable for transmission, the mean suitability for each calendar month, and the “spillover potential,” a measure incorporating suitability with human and livestock populations.

Results

Several countries where cases have not yet been reported are suitable for RVF. Areas across the region of interest are suitable for transmission at different times of the year, and some areas are suitable for multiple seasons each year. Spillover potential results show areas within countries where high populations of humans and livestock are at risk for much of the year.

Conclusions

The widespread environmental suitability of RVF highlights the need for increased preparedness, even in countries that have not previously experienced cases. These maps can aid in prioritizing long-term RVF preparedness activities and determining optimal times for recurring preparedness activities. Given an outbreak, our results can highlight areas often at risk for subsequent transmission that month, enabling decision-makers to target responses effectively.

COVID-19 from the land "Down Under" in an upside-down world: an Australian perspective

We frame the world, which then frames all our seeing, thinking and doing [1]. This is true individually, professionally and at the level of all our institutions. It is a perpetual work in progress that occasionally undergoes a single seismic shift. This is the situation that the world is currently experiencing with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), notwithstanding prior warnings [2, 3].

Australia's approach to the current COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in relative containment of the disease. However, it must be remembered that any defence is only as strong as its weakest link. https://bit.ly/2N2hHy1

Outbreak analytics: a developing data science for informing the response to emerging pathogens

Despite continued efforts to improve health systems worldwide, emerging pathogen epidemics remain a major public health concern. Effective response to such outbreaks relies on timely intervention, ideally informed by all available sources of data. The collection, visualization and analysis of outbreak data are becoming increasingly complex, owing to the diversity in types of data, questions and available methods to address them. Recent advances have led to the rise of outbreak analytics, an emerging data science focused on the technological and methodological aspects of the outbreak data pipeline, from collection to analysis, modelling and reporting to inform outbreak response. In this article, we assess the current state of the field. After laying out the context of outbreak response, we critically review the most common analytics components, their inter-dependencies, data requirements and the type of information they can provide to inform operations in real time. We discuss some challenges and opportunities and conclude on the potential role of outbreak analytics for improving our understanding of, and response to outbreaks of emerging pathogens.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control‘. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.

Dynamics of conflict during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2018-2019

BACKGROUND

The 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the largest ever recorded in the DRC. It has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The outbreak emerged in a region of chronic conflict and insecurity, and directed attacks against health care workers may have interfered with disease response activities. Our study characterizes and quantifies the broader conflict dynamics over the course of the outbreak by pairing epidemiological and all available spatial conflict data.

METHODS

We build a set of conflict variables by mapping the spatial locations of all conflict events and their associated deaths in each of the affected health zones in North Kivu and Ituri, eastern DRC, before and during the outbreak. Using these data, we compare patterns of conflict before and during the outbreak in affected health zones and those not affected. We then test whether conflict is correlated with increased EVD transmission at the health zone level.

FINDINGS

The incidence of conflict events per capita is ~ 600 times more likely in Ituri and North Kivu than for the rest of the DRC. We identified 15 time periods of substantial uninterrupted transmission across 11 health zones and a total of 120 bi-weeks. We do not find significant short-term associations between the bi-week reproduction numbers and the number of conflicts. However, we do find that the incidence of conflict per capita was correlated with the incidence of EVD per capita at the health zone level for the entire outbreak (Pearson's r = 0.33, 95% CI 0.05-0.57). In the two provinces, the monthly number of conflict events also increased by a factor of 2.7 in Ebola-affected health zones (p value < 0.05) compared to 2.0 where no transmission was reported and 1.3 in the rest of the DRC, in the period between February 2019 and July 2019.

CONCLUSION

We characterized the association between variables documenting broad conflict levels and EVD transmission. Such assessment is important to understand if and how such conflict variables could be used to inform the outbreak response. We found that while these variables can help characterize long-term challenges and susceptibilities of the different regions they provide little insight on the short-term dynamics of EVD transmission.

Clinical REsearch During Outbreaks (CREDO) Training for Low- and Middle-Income Countries

We describe a pilot of the Clinical REsearch During Outbreaks (CREDO) initiative, a training curriculum for researchers in epidemic-prone low- and middle-income countries who may respond to disease outbreaks. Participants reported improved confidence in their ability to conduct such research and overall satisfaction with the course structure, content, and training.

Systematics, Ecology, and Host Switching: Attributes Affecting Emergence of the Lassa Virus in Rodents across Western Africa

Ever since it was established that rodents serve as reservoirs of the zoonotic Lassa virus (LASV), scientists have sought to answer the questions: which populations of rodents carry the virus? How do fluctuations in LASV prevalence and rodent abundance influence Lassa fever outbreaks in humans? What does it take for the virus to adopt additional rodent hosts, proliferating what already are devastating cycles of rodent-to-human transmission? In this review, we examine key aspects of research involving the biology of rodents that affect their role as LASV reservoirs, including phylogeography, demography, virus evolution, and host switching. We discuss how this knowledge can help control Lassa fever and suggest further areas for investigation.

Knowledge, attitudes and practices towards viral haemorrhagic fevers amongst healthcare workers in urban and rural public healthcare facilities in the N'zérékoré prefecture, Guinea: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa began in Guinea's Forest region, a region now considered to be at high risk for future epidemics of viral haemorrhagic fevers (VHF). Good knowledge, attitudes and practices towards VHF amongst healthcare workers in such regions are a central pillar of infection prevention and control (IPC). To inform future training in IPC, this study assesses the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) towards VHF amongst healthcare workers in public healthcare facilities in the most populated prefecture in Forest Guinea, and compares results from urban and rural areas.

METHODS

In June and July 2019, we interviewed 102 healthcare workers in the main urban and rural public healthcare facilities in the N'zérékoré prefecture in Forest Guinea. We used an interviewer-administered questionnaire adapted from validated KAP surveys.

RESULTS

The great majority of respondents demonstrated good knowledge and favourable attitudes towards VHF. However, respondents reported some gaps in preventive practices such as VHF suspect case detection. They also reported a shortage of protective medical equipment used in everyday clinical work in both urban and rural healthcare facilities and a lack of training in IPC, especially in rural healthcare facilities. However, whether or not healthcare workers had been trained in IPC did not seem to influence their level of KAP towards VHF.

CONCLUSIONS

Three years after the end of the Ebola epidemic, our findings suggest that public healthcare facilities in the N'zérékoré prefecture in Forest Guinea still lack essential protective equipment and some practical training in VHF suspect case detection. To minimize the risk of future VHF epidemics and improve management of outbreaks of infectious diseases in the region, current efforts to strengthen the public healthcare system in Guinea should encompass questions of supply and IPC training.

Ebola virus disease

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe and frequently lethal disease caused by Ebola virus (EBOV). EVD outbreaks typically start from a single case of probable zoonotic transmission, followed by human-to-human transmission via direct contact or contact with infected bodily fluids or contaminated fomites. EVD has a high case-fatality rate; it is characterized by fever, gastrointestinal signs and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Diagnosis requires a combination of case definition and laboratory tests, typically real-time reverse transcription PCR to detect viral RNA or rapid diagnostic tests based on immunoassays to detect EBOV antigens. Recent advances in medical countermeasure research resulted in the recent approval of an EBOV-targeted vaccine by European and US regulatory agencies. The results of a randomized clinical trial of investigational therapeutics for EVD demonstrated survival benefits from two monoclonal antibody products targeting the EBOV membrane glycoprotein. New observations emerging from the unprecedented 2013-2016 Western African EVD outbreak (the largest in history) and the ongoing EVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have substantially improved the understanding of EVD and viral persistence in survivors of EVD, resulting in new strategies toward prevention of infection and optimization of clinical management, acute illness outcomes and attendance to the clinical care needs of patients.

How Cities Cope in Outbreak Events?

An outbreak can cause more problems than just the spread of disease. It can be an antagonistic nemesis to our cities and communities, particularly if we lack preparedness and resilience. Its progress is usually unclear as it can be completely different from case to case, and can react differently in different contexts and with different groups of people. Such reactions may purely relate to climatic conditions, hygienic status, and environmental attributes of the context. Those reactions can also differ from one group of people to another, while the disease has to find its correct host as well the way it can transmit and evolve. Consequently, the magnitude of impacts would depend on many factors, of which the nature of the disease is very important during the whole outbreak progress.

Short report on implications of Covid-19 and emerging zoonotic infectious diseases for pastoralists and Africa

Many emerging and re-emerging zoonotic infectious diseases occur in Africa. These are projected to increase as human-animal host contact increases owing to increasing environmental degradation that shrinks nature habitats for wildlife over the continent. The current outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) responsible for causing coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19) has reinvigorated discourse on the disruptiveness of the zoonotic emerging infectious diseases, owing to their transboundary character. Even as the world focuses on the COVID-19 sweeping pandemic, the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS)-CoV re-emerged in Saudi Arabia infecting 18 people with five deaths; this has barely received any attention. This outbreak is particularly of concern to the pastoralists in the Horn of Africa, a region that has in recent past seen an increase in camel trade with the Gulf States, especially Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Emerging and re-emerging zoonotic infectious diseases are complex, depend on human-animal-environment interaction and pose a strain on public health systems. There is a need to address these diseases dynamically through a synergistic approach, drawing on expertise from diverse sectors. One Health approach has distinguished itself as an integrative action able to bring together multiple actors on a global, national and local scale to advance the attainment of optimal health outcomes for people, animals and the environment. One Health works by strengthening the preparedness, response, mitigation and monitoring of zoonotic infectious disease risks collaboratively. We opine that as zoonotic emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases continue to rise over pastoral Africa, comprehensive implementation of the One Health approach will be urgently required.

Travel time to health facilities in areas of outbreak potential: maps for guiding local preparedness and response

BACKGROUND

Repeated outbreaks of emerging pathogens underscore the need for preparedness plans to prevent, detect, and respond. As countries develop and improve National Action Plans for Health Security, addressing subnational variation in preparedness is increasingly important. One facet of preparedness and mitigating disease transmission is health facility accessibility, linking infected persons with health systems and vice versa. Where potential patients can access care, local facilities must ensure they can appropriately diagnose, treat, and contain disease spread to prevent secondary transmission; where patients cannot readily access facilities, alternate plans must be developed. Here, we use travel time to link facilities and populations at risk of viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) and identify spatial variation in these respective preparedness demands.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used geospatial resources of travel friction, pathogen environmental suitability, and health facilities to determine facility accessibility of any at-risk location within a country. We considered in-country and cross-border movements of exposed populations and highlighted vulnerable populations where current facilities are inaccessible and new infrastructure would reduce travel times. We developed profiles for 43 African countries. Resulting maps demonstrate gaps in health facility accessibility and highlight facilities closest to areas at risk for VHF spillover. For instance, in the Central African Republic, we identified travel times of over 24 h to access a health facility. Some countries had more uniformly short travel times, such as Nigeria, although regional disparities exist. For some populations, including many in Botswana, access to areas at risk for VHF nationally was low but proximity to suitable spillover areas in bordering countries was high. Additional analyses provide insights for considering future resource allocation. We provide a contemporary use case for these analyses for the ongoing Ebola outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

These maps demonstrate the use of geospatial analytics for subnational preparedness, identifying facilities close to at-risk populations for prioritizing readiness to detect, treat, and respond to cases and highlighting where gaps in health facility accessibility exist. We identified cross-border threats for VHF exposure and demonstrate an opportunity to improve preparedness activities through the use of precision public health methods and data-driven insights for resource allocation as part of a country's preparedness plans.

Testing predictability of disease outbreaks with a simple model of pathogen biogeography

Predicting disease emergence and outbreak events is a critical task for public health professionals and epidemiologists. Advances in global disease surveillance are increasingly generating datasets that are worth more than their component parts for prediction-oriented work. Here, we use a trait-free approach which leverages information on the global community of human infectious diseases to predict the biogeography of pathogens through time. Our approach takes pairwise dissimilarities between countries' pathogen communities and pathogens' geographical distributions and uses these to predict country-pathogen associations. We compare the success rates of our model for predicting pathogen outbreak, emergence and re-emergence potential as a function of time (e.g. number of years between training and prediction), pathogen type (e.g. virus) and transmission mode (e.g. vector-borne). With only these simple predictors, our model successfully predicts basic network structure up to a decade into the future. We find that while outbreak and re-emergence potential are especially well captured by our simple model, prediction of emergence events remains more elusive, and sudden global emergences like an influenza pandemic are beyond the predictive capacity of the model. However, these stochastic pandemic events are unlikely to be predictable from such coarse data. Together, our model is able to use the information on the existing country-pathogen network to predict pathogen outbreaks fairly well, suggesting the importance in considering information on co-occurring pathogens in a more global view even to estimate outbreak events in a single location or for a single pathogen.

Rigorous Clinical Trial Design in Public Health Emergencies Is Essential

Randomized clinical trials are the most reliable approaches to evaluating the effects of new treatments and vaccines. During the 2014-2015 West African Ebola epidemic, many argued that such trials were neither ethical nor feasible in an environment of limited health infrastructure and severe disease with a high fatality rate. Consensus among the numerous organizations providing help to the affected areas was never achieved, resulting in fragmented collaboration, delayed study initiation, and ultimately failure to provide definitive evidence on the efficacy of treatments and vaccines. Randomized trials were in fact approved by local ethics boards and initiated, demonstrating that randomized trials, even in such difficult circumstances, are feasible. Improved planning and collaboration among research and humanitarian organizations, and affected communities, in the interepidemic periods are needed to ensure that questions regarding the efficacy of vaccines and treatments can be definitively answered during future public health emergencies.

Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa

Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a fourfold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases.

A dynamic neural network model for predicting risk of Zika in real time

BACKGROUND

In 2015, the Zika virus spread from Brazil throughout the Americas, posing an unprecedented challenge to the public health community. During the epidemic, international public health officials lacked reliable predictions of the outbreak's expected geographic scale and prevalence of cases, and were therefore unable to plan and allocate surveillance resources in a timely and effective manner.

METHODS

In this work, we present a dynamic neural network model to predict the geographic spread of outbreaks in real time. The modeling framework is flexible in three main dimensions (i) selection of the chosen risk indicator, i.e., case counts or incidence rate; (ii) risk classification scheme, which defines the high-risk group based on a relative or absolute threshold; and (iii) prediction forecast window (1 up to 12 weeks). The proposed model can be applied dynamically throughout the course of an outbreak to identify the regions expected to be at greatest risk in the future.

RESULTS

The model is applied to the recent Zika epidemic in the Americas at a weekly temporal resolution and country spatial resolution, using epidemiological data, passenger air travel volumes, and vector habitat suitability, socioeconomic, and population data for all affected countries and territories in the Americas. The model performance is quantitatively evaluated based on the predictive accuracy of the model. We show that the model can accurately predict the geographic expansion of Zika in the Americas with the overall average accuracy remaining above 85% even for prediction windows of up to 12 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

Sensitivity analysis illustrated the model performance to be robust across a range of features. Critically, the model performed consistently well at various stages throughout the course of the outbreak, indicating its potential value at any time during an epidemic. The predictive capability was superior for shorter forecast windows and geographically isolated locations that are predominantly connected via air travel. The highly flexible nature of the proposed modeling framework enables policy makers to develop and plan vector control programs and case surveillance strategies which can be tailored to a range of objectives and resource constraints.

Ultrasound-guided minimally invasive autopsy as a tool for rapid post-mortem diagnosis in the 2018 Sao Paulo yellow fever epidemic: Correlation with conventional autopsy

Background

New strategies for collecting post-mortem tissue are necessary, particularly in areas with emerging infections. Minimally invasive autopsy (MIA) has been proposed as an alternative to conventional autopsy (CA), with promising results. Previous studies using MIA addressed the cause of death in adults and children in developing countries. However, none of these studies was conducted in areas with an undergoing infectious disease epidemic. We have recently experienced an epidemic of yellow fever (YF) in Brazil. Aiming to provide new information on low-cost post-mortem techniques that could be applied in regions at risk for infectious outbreaks, we tested the efficacy of ultrasound-guided MIA (MIA-US) in the diagnosis of patients who died during the epidemic.

Methodology/principal findings

In this observational study, we performed MIA-US in 20 patients with suspected or confirmed YF and compared the results with those obtained in subsequent CAs. Ultrasound-guided biopsies were used for tissue sampling of liver, kidneys, lungs, spleen, and heart. Liver samples from MIA-US and CA were submitted for RT-PCR and immunohistochemistry for detection of YF virus antigen. Of the 20 patients, 17 had YF diagnosis confirmed after autopsy by histopathological and molecular analysis. There was 100% agreement between MIA-US and CA in determining the cause of death (panlobular hepatitis with hepatic failure) and main disease (yellow fever). Further, MIA-US obtained samples with good quality for molecular studies and for the assessment of the systemic involvement of the disease. Main extrahepatic findings were pulmonary hemorrhage, pneumonia, acute tubular necrosis, and glomerulonephritis. One patient was a 24-year-old, 27-week pregnant woman; MIA-US assessed the placenta and provided adequate placental tissue for analysis.

Conclusions

MIA-US is a reliable tool for rapid post-mortem diagnosis of yellow fever and can be used as an alternative to conventional autopsy in regions at risk for hemorrhagic fever outbreaks with limited resources to perform complete diagnostic autopsy.

Reliable mortality information is of paramount importance to establish sound public health policies. Autopsy is an important tool not only for determining the cause of death, but also for the detection of novel diseases. In the last decades, we have been globally identifying an unprecedented number of emerging infections. Therefore, there is great interest in the development of less invasive and low-cost tools for the accurate post-mortem diagnosis in fatal cases. Minimally invasive autopsy (MIA), conceived as targeting diagnostic biopsies of key organs by needle puncture, has been proposed as an alternative to conventional autopsy (CA) for the determination of cause of death in developing countries. In this research, we tested the efficacy of MIA in the post-mortem diagnosis of 20 patients with suspected or confirmed yellow fever who died during the recent epidemic of yellow fever that occurred in Brazil. There was a perfect agreement between MIA and CA in determining the cause of death (hepatic failure) and main disease (yellow fever) in all patients with confirmed yellow fever. This finding indicates that MIA can be used as an alternative to CA in regions at risk for infectious disease outbreaks with limited resources to perform conventional autopsies.

The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.

Statistical mapping techniques provide insights into the current geographical spread of the mosquito-borne dengue virus infection and predict changes in the areas that will be environmentally suitable to the virus for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080.

Pandemic preparedness and forecast

Geographic mapping of pathogen emergence risk, as recently done for viral haemorrhagic fever in Africa, provides an important tool for targeting interventions. More comprehensive preparedness and prediction systems that increase surveillance and forecast infectious disease outbreak growth and spread in real time are also needed.

The epidemic potential of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in humans in mainland China: A two-stage risk analysis

Background

From 2013 to 2017, more than one thousand avian influenza A (H7N9) confirmed cases with hundreds of deaths were reported in mainland China. To identify priorities for epidemic prevention and control, a risk assessing framework for subnational variations is needed to define the epidemic potential of A (H7N9).

Methods

We established a consolidated two-stage framework that outlined the potential epidemic of H7N9 in humans: The Stage 1, index-case potential, used a Boosted Regression Trees model to assess population at risk due to spillover from poultry; the Stage 2, epidemic potential, synthesized the variables upon a framework of the Index for Risk Management to measure epidemic potential based on the probability of hazards and exposure, the vulnerability and coping capacity.

Results

Provinces in southern and eastern China, especially Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangzhou, have high index-case potential of human infected with A (H7N9), while northern coastal provinces and municipalities with low morbidity, i.e. Tianjin and Liaoning, have an increasing risk of A (H7N9) infection. Provinces in central China are likely to have high potential of epidemic due to the high vulnerability and the lack of coping capacity.

Conclusions

This study provides a unified risk assessment of A (H7N9) to detect the two-stage heterogeneity of epidemic potential among different provinces in mainland China, allowing proactively evaluate health preparedness at subnational levels to improve surveillance, diagnostic capabilities, and health promotion.

Hemorrhagic Fever-Causing Arenaviruses: Lethal Pathogens and Potent Immune Suppressors

Hemorrhagic fevers (HF) resulting from pathogenic arenaviral infections have traditionally been neglected as tropical diseases primarily affecting African and South American regions. There are currently no FDA-approved vaccines for arenaviruses, and treatments have been limited to supportive therapy and use of non-specific nucleoside analogs, such as Ribavirin. Outbreaks of arenaviral infections have been limited to certain geographic areas that are endemic but known cases of exportation of arenaviruses from endemic regions and socioeconomic challenges for local control of rodent reservoirs raise serious concerns about the potential for larger outbreaks in the future. This review synthesizes current knowledge about arenaviral evolution, ecology, transmission patterns, life cycle, modulation of host immunity, disease pathogenesis, as well as discusses recent development of preventative and therapeutic pursuits against this group of deadly viral pathogens.

Global, Regional, National, and Subnational Big Data to Inform Health Equity Research: Perspectives from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Objectives

Everyone deserves a long and healthy life, but in reality, health outcomes differ across populations. We use results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) to report patterns in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risks at the global, regional, national, and subnational level, and by sociodemographic index (SDI), from 1990 to 2017.

Design

GBD 2017 undertook a systematic analysis of published studies and available data providing information on prevalence, incidence, remission, and excess mortality. We computed prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, years of life lost due to premature mortality, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years with 95% uncertainty intervals for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries from 1990 to 2017. We also computed SDI, a summary indicator combining measures of income, education, and fertility.

Results

There were wide disparities in the burden of disease by SDI, with smaller burdens in affluent countries and in specific regions within countries. Select diseases and risks, such as drug use disorders, high blood pressure, high body mass index, diet, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and alcohol use disorders warrant increased global attention and indicate a need for greater investment in prevention and treatment across the life course.

Conclusions

Policymakers need a comprehensive picture of what risks and causes result in disability and death. The GBD provides the means to quantify health loss: these findings can be used to examine root causes of disparities and develop programs to improve health and health equity.