Corruption in public health and its effects on the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities

This study's objective is to estimate the effects of corruption in the public health sector on the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities. To build three corruption measures, data from audits conducted by the office of the comptroller general (Controladoria Geral da Uniao, CGU henceforth) in 2009 and 2010 in the health and sanitation sectors were used. Two analysis steps were performed. The first verified the relationship between the performance of the audit and the economic growth rate of the municipalities, using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS); the second analyses the effects of corruption on public health on the economic growth of the audited municipalities, using OLS and Quantile Regressions. First, in a sample of 5547 municipalities, the evidence indicates that being audited is related to slower economic growth. From this, when the sample is restricted to the 180 municipalities audited in 2009 and the corruption variables constructed from the audit reports conducted in the year, the results indicate negative effects of corruption on economic growth. The results show that in the larger quantiles of economic growth, the adverse effects of corruption are felt more significantly. Both methods tested with the three corruption variables created provide similar evidence, showing robustness of results. Therefore, the study allowed us to conclude that corruption in the public health sector hampered the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities, which is a delayed effect: Corruption in 2009 had negative effects on growth in 2011.

The Temporal (In)Stability of the Unemployment and Crime Relationship

The complex relationship between crime and economic change has had a long pedigree in criminological research. This article considers the temporal stability of the Cantor and Land model of unemployment and crime using a decomposition model of Canadian provinces, 1981 to 2009. We include multiple economic measures for a more comprehensive representation of economic performance, allowing for the estimates of long- and short-run unemployment effects to vary over time. We undertake this analysis considering 12 crime types, finding strong support for the Cantor and Land model in both property and violent crimes. However, in a number of cases, we find that there is significant variation of these relationships over time. This result implies that support for this model depends on the time period analyzed and that any policy derived from this model of unemployment and crime is time-period dependent.

Firearm laws and illegal firearm flow between US states

BACKGROUND

Considerable variation in firearm legislation exists. Prior studies show an association between stronger state laws and fewer firearm deaths. We hypothesized that firearms would flow from states with weaker laws to states with stronger laws based on proximity and population.

METHODS

Crime gun trace data from 2015 to 2017 was accessed from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and compared with the count and composition of firearm legislation in 2015 among the contiguous 48 states. Additional independent variables included population, median household income, distance, and presence or absence of a shared border. We used Exponential Random Graph Models to identify predictors of traced firearm transfers between origin and destination states.

RESULTS

After controlling for network structure, firearm laws in origin states were associated with fewer traced firearm transfers (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-0.93; p < 0.001). Conversely, more firearm laws in destination states were associated with more traced firearm transfers (IRR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.06-1.15; p < 0.001). Larger population at the origin was associated with increased transfers (IRR, 1.38; 95%CI, 1.27-1.50; p < 0.001), as was larger population at the destination state (IRR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.35-1.56; p < 0.001). Greater distance was associated with fewer transfers (for each 1,000 km; IRR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.27-0.46; p < 0.001), and transfers were greater between adjacent states (IRR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.90-3.27; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

State firearm legislation has a significant impact on gun trafficking even after controlling for network structure. States with stricter firearm legislation are negatively impacted by states with weaker regulations, as crime guns flow from out-of-state.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiologic, level III.

Examining the Social Organization Practices of Cybercriminals in the Netherlands Online and Offline

This study focuses on the organization practices of networks of cybercriminals engaged in serious financial offenses, through a qualitative analysis of the Best and Luckenbill's sociological framework. The study utilized data collected regarding 18 separate criminals investigations from the Netherlands. The results demonstrate that the participants within these networks operated at various stages of deviant sophistication. Surprisingly, the majority of networks exhibit organizational sophistication based on their division of labor and extended duration over time. In fact, most of this sample could be classified as "teams" or "formal organizations." Furthermore, in contrast with prior studies, no loners were present and only a few networks could be classified as "colleagues" or "peers."

Effects of signalling tax evasion on redistribution and voting preferences: Evidence from the Panama Papers

This paper provides empirical evidence that individuals substantially revise their stated wealth redistribution preferences after fiscal scandals. The 2016 Panama Papers scandal revealed top-income tax evasion behaviour simultaneously worldwide. The empirical investigation exploits this event as a quasi-natural experiment. I rely on two original datasets, a UK household longitudinal dataset and a survey conducted in 22 European countries. I use a difference-in-differences strategy and find that pro-redistribution statements increased between 2% and 3.3% after the scandal. Responses are heterogeneous and larger for right-wing individuals and low-income individuals. This change in wealth redistribution preferences is likely to have been translated into a slight change in votes. The results suggest an increase in stated voting intentions for the left and a decrease for the right. Complementary estimations reveal that more media coverage and more individuals involved by country increase the magnitude of the response.

Strategies to avoid blacklisting: The case of statistics on money laundering

Financial and legal entities (e.g. banks, casinos, notaries etc.) have to report money laundering suspicions. Countries’ engagement in fighting money laundering is evaluated–among others–with statistics on how often these suspicions are reported. Lack of compliance can result in economically harmful blacklisting. Nevertheless, these blacklists repeatedly become empty–in what is known as the emptying blacklist paradox. We develop a principal-agent model with intermediate agents and show that non-harmonized statistics can lead to strategic reporting to avoid blacklisting, and explain the emptying blacklist paradox. We recommend the harmonization of the standards to report suspicion of money laundering.

[CRIMINAL RESPONSIBILITY OF MEDICAL AND ITS CASE LAW EVOLUTION. LEGAL AND ECONOMIC PROFILES]

The article deals with the regulatory and jurisprudential evolution of medical criminal responsibility from the 70s to the Gelli-Bianco law of 2017. Subsequently it winds through the contribution of the last important judgments of the subject up to the decisions of the Supreme Court with United Sections of 2018, finally to conclude with an economic analysis on the increasement of the legal disputes registered in recent years.

Did Legalization of Sunday Alcohol Sales Increase Crime in the United States? Evidence From Seven States

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates the impact of the legalization of Sunday alcohol sales on several different types of criminal activity in the United States.

METHOD

The 2000-2010 data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) for seven states (n = 1,746,249) and difference-in-differences type models are used to estimate the effect of the legalization of Sunday alcohol sales on different types of criminal activity.

RESULTS

States that legalized Sunday sales of alcohol experienced up to a 16% to 23% increase in the total number of violent and property crimes committed on Sundays (p < .01). However, the aggregate impact of this policy change on crimes committed on all days of the week is not significant because of either positive or statistically insignificant spillover effects of the repeal of Sunday alcohol sales bans on crimes committed on Mondays through Saturdays. These results are robust under alternative model specifications.

CONCLUSIONS

We find evidence that the negative effects of legalizing Sunday alcohol sales on criminal activity are day specific, and the overall crime trends are not affected by this policy change. These findings are particularly important given the ongoing public policy debates about the relevancy of the restrictions on Sunday sales of alcohol at off-premise locations.

The economic burden of child sexual abuse in the United States

The present study provides an estimate of the U.S. economic impact of child sexual abuse (CSA). Costs of CSA were measured from the societal perspective and include health care costs, productivity losses, child welfare costs, violence/crime costs, special education costs, and suicide death costs. We separately estimated quality-adjusted life year (QALY) losses. For each category, we used the best available secondary data to develop cost per case estimates. All costs were estimated in U.S. dollars and adjusted to the reference year 2015. Estimating 20 new cases of fatal and 40,387 new substantiated cases of nonfatal CSA that occurred in 2015, the lifetime economic burden of CSA is approximately $9.3 billion, the lifetime cost for victims of fatal CSA per female and male victim is on average $1,128,334 and $1,482,933, respectively, and the average lifetime cost for victims of nonfatal CSA is of $282,734 per female victim. For male victims of nonfatal CSA, there was insufficient information on productivity losses, contributing to a lower average estimated lifetime cost of $74,691 per male victim. If we included QALYs, these costs would increase by approximately $40,000 per victim. With the exception of male productivity losses, all estimates were based on robust, replicable incidence-based costing methods. The availability of accurate, up-to-date estimates should contribute to policy analysis, facilitate comparisons with other public health problems, and support future economic evaluations of CSA-specific policy and practice. In particular, we hope the availability of credible and contemporary estimates will support increased attention to primary prevention of CSA.

"It Ruined My Life": The effects of the War on Drugs on people who inject drugs (PWID) in rural Puerto Rico

BACKGROUND

The War on Drugs has raised the incarceration rates of racial minorities for non-violent drug-related crimes, profoundly stigmatized drug users, and redirected resources from drug prevention and treatment to militarizing federal and local law enforcement. Yet, while some states consider shifting their punitive approach to drug use, to one based on drug treatment and rehabilitation, nothing suggests that these policy shifts are being replicated in Puerto Rico.

METHODS

This paper utilizes data from 360 PWID residing in four rural towns in the mountainous area of central Puerto Rico. We initially recruited 315 PWID using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) and collected data about risk practices and conducted HIV and HCV testing. During a second phase, we conducted 34 micro-ethnographic assays, in which we randomly recruited 34 participants from the first phase and included their ego networks in this phase. Our ethnographic inquiry produced significant data regarding the effects of the war on drugs on the local drug trade, drug availability, and injectors' social networks.

RESULTS

Findings suggest that repressive policing has been ineffective in preventing drug distribution and use among those in our study. This type of law enforcement approach has resulted in the disproportionate incarceration of poor drug users in rural Puerto Rico, and mainly for nonviolent drug-related crimes. In addition, incarceration exposes PWID to a form of a cruel and unusual punishment: having to quit heroin "cold turkey" while the prison environment also represents a HIV/HCV risk. In turn, the war on drugs not only diverts resources from treatment but also shapes treatment ideologies, punishing non-compliant patients.

CONCLUSION

Shifting the emphasis from repression to treatment and rehabilitation is likely to have a positive impact on the health and overall quality of life of PWID and their communities.

Use of opioid substitution therapies in the treatment of opioid use disorder: results of a UK cost-effectiveness modelling study

AIMS

This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of buprenorphine maintenance treatment (BMT) and methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) vs no opioid substitution therapy (OST) for the treatment of opioid use disorder, from the UK National Health Service (NHS)/personal social services (PSS) and societal perspectives over 1 year.

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness of OST vs no OST was evaluated by first replicating and then expanding an existing UK health technology assessment model. The expanded model included the impact of OST on infection rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection.

RESULTS

Versus no OST, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for BMT and MMT were £13,923 and £14,206 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), respectively, from a NHS/PSS perspective. When total costs (NHS/PSS and societal) are considered, there are substantial savings associated with adopting OST; these savings are in excess of £14,032 for BMT vs no OST and £17,174 for MMT vs no OST over 1 year. This is primarily driven by a reduction in victim costs. OST treatment also impacted other aspects of criminality and healthcare resource use.

LIMITATIONS

The model's 1-year timeframe means long-term costs and benefits, and the influence of changes over time are not captured.

CONCLUSIONS

OST can be considered cost-effective vs no OST from the UK NHS/PSS perspective, with a cost per QALY well below the UK's willingness-to-pay threshold. There were only small differences between BMT and MMT. The availability of two or more cost-effective options is beneficial to retaining patients in OST programs. From a societal perspective, OST is estimated to save over £14,032 and £17,174 per year for BMT and MMT vs no OST, respectively, due to savings in victim costs. Further work is required to fully quantify the clinical and health economic impacts of different OST formulations and their societal impact over the long-term.

Natural disasters and indicators of social cohesion

Do adversarial environmental conditions create social cohesion? We provide new answers to this question by exploiting spatial and temporal variation in exposure to earthquakes across Chile. Using a variety of methods and controlling for a number of socio-economic variables, we find that exposure to earthquakes has a positive effect on several indicators of social cohesion. Social cohesion increases after a big earthquake and slowly erodes in periods where environmental conditions are less adverse. Our results contribute to the current debate on whether and how environmental conditions shape formal and informal institutions.

The costs of crime during and after publicly funded treatment for opioid use disorders: a population-level study for the state of California

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Treatment for opioid use disorders (OUD) reduces the risk of mortality and infectious disease transmission; however, opportunities to quantify the potential economic benefits of associated decreases in drug-related crime are scarce. This paper aimed to estimate the costs of crime during and after periods of engagement in publicly funded treatment for OUD to compare total costs of crime during a hypothetical 6-month period following initiation of opioid agonist treatment (OAT) versus detoxification.

DESIGN

Retrospective, administrative data-based cohort study with comprehensive information on drug treatment and criminal justice systems interactions.

SETTING

Publicly funded drug treatment facilities in California, USA (2006-10).

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 31 659 individuals admitted for the first time to treatment for OUD, and who were linked with criminal justice and mortality data, were followed during a median 2.3 years. Median age at first treatment admission was 32, 35.8% were women and 37.1% primarily used prescription opioids.

MEASUREMENTS

Daily costs of crime (US$2014) were calculated from a societal perspective and were composed of the costs of policing, court, corrections and criminal victimization. We estimated the average marginal effect of treatment engagement in OAT or detoxification adjusting for potential fixed and time-varying confounders, including drug use and criminal justice system involvement prior to treatment initiation.

FINDINGS

Daily costs of crime during treatment compared with after treatment were $126 lower for OAT [95% confidence interval (CI) = $116, $136] and $144 lower for detoxification (95% CI = $135, $154). Summing the costs of crime during and after treatment over a hypothetical 6-month period using the observed median durations of OAT (161 days) and detoxification (19 days), we estimated that enrolling an individual in OAT as opposed to detoxification would save $17 550 ($16 840, $18 383).

CONCLUSIONS

In publicly funded drug treatment facilities in California, USA, engagement in treatment for opioid use disorders is associated with lower costs of crime in the 6 months following initiation of treatment, and the economic benefits were far greater for individuals receiving time-unlimited treatment.

Combating Rhino Horn Trafficking: The Need to Disrupt Criminal Networks

The onslaught on the World’s wildlife continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. We build a model that integrates rhino horn trade with rhino population dynamics in order to evaluate the impact of various management policies on rhino sustainability. In our model, an agent-based sub-model of horn trade from the poaching event up through a purchase of rhino horn in Asia impacts rhino abundance. A data-validated, individual-based sub-model of the rhino population of South Africa provides these abundance values. We evaluate policies that consist of different combinations of legal trade initiatives, demand reduction marketing campaigns, increased anti-poaching measures within protected areas, and transnational policing initiatives aimed at disrupting those criminal syndicates engaged in horn trafficking. Simulation runs of our model over the next 35 years produces a sustainable rhino population under only one management policy. This policy includes both a transnational policing effort aimed at dismantling those criminal networks engaged in rhino horn trafficking—coupled with increases in legal economic opportunities for people living next to protected areas where rhinos live. This multi-faceted approach should be the focus of the international debate on strategies to combat the current slaughter of rhino rather than the binary debate about whether rhino horn trade should be legalized. This approach to the evaluation of wildlife management policies may be useful to apply to other species threatened by wildlife trafficking.

Increasing excise taxes in the presence of an illegal cigarette market: the 2011 Brazil tobacco tax reform

The Brazilian cigarette excise tax reform of 2011 increased tax rates significantly in the presence of a high proportion of illegal and cheap cigarettes contributing to total consumption. Prior to 2011, tobacco tax policy in Brazil had reduced excise tax share on consumer prices, for fear of smuggling. This report examines two hypotheses explaining why tax authorities changed direction. The first is related to lack of concern regarding smuggling in tobacco industry pricing behavior before 2011 (rather than reducing prices following tax reduction, legal companies increased net of tax prices above inflation and key costs). The second hypothesis regards inconsistent industry assessments of the size of the illicit market, which ultimately undermined the credibility of the industry with tax authorities. The author concludes that the 2011 reform was designed to revert the weakness of previous policies, and did indeed succeed. The post-2011 experience in Brazil indicates that increased cigarette excise taxes can increase government revenues and reduce smoking prevalence and consumption despite widespread smuggling of tobacco products.

Victims' Compensation as a Tool of Therapeutic Justice: Examining the Physical and Mental Health Needs of Victim Compensation Applicants and the Role of Health in Receiving Compensation

OBJECTIVE

Victims' compensation programs are positioned to serve an important therapeutic role. Their use by persons with physical and mental health problems has not been investigated. This study evaluates the extent to which applicants have physical and mental health needs and whether receiving compensation is related to these needs.

METHODS

Data were part of a larger study designed to assess satisfaction with victim compensation in Georgia. The sample included 500 victim compensation applicants. Individuals were surveyed about their experiences applying for compensation as well as their current wellbeing. Descriptive and multivariate analyses investigated the link between physical and mental health problems and denial of victim compensation.

RESULTS

Applicants for crime victim compensation in Georgia experienced a range of physical and mental health problems. Almost half of applicants had been diagnosed with a mental health condition, and 60% had been diagnosed with at least 1 physical health condition. Co-occurring disorders were common. In addition, being denied compensation was significantly related to having a mental health condition and to the number of diagnosed mental health conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Crime victim applicants have clear physical and mental health needs. Being denied compensation benefits is related to having a mental health disorder. These results suggest that victim compensation programs can be an intervention point for victims and their families for either receipt of direct service or referral to needed services. In addition, changes in program administration may need to be made to alleviate disparity in award benefit related to mental health status.

Assessment of the European Union's illicit trade agreements with the four major Transnational Tobacco Companies

To address the illicit cigarette trade, the European Union (EU) has signed agreements with the four major Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs) that involve establishing extensive systems of cooperation. All agreements foresee two types of payments: annual payments (totalling US$ 1.9 billion over 20 years) and supplementary seizure payments, equivalent to 100% of the evaded taxes in the event of seizures of their products. While limited by the fundamental lack of transparency in this area, our analysis suggests that these agreements have served largely to secure the TTCs' interests and are threatening progress in tobacco control. The seizure payments are paltry and a wholly inadequate deterrent to TTC involvement in illicit trade. Despite the agreements, growing evidence indicates the TTCs remain involved in the illicit trade or are at best failing to secure their supply chains as required by the agreements. The intention of the seizure-based payments to deter the tobacco industry from further involvement in the illicit cigarette trade has failed because the agreements contain too many loopholes that provide TTCs with both the incentive and opportunity to classify seized cigarettes as counterfeit. In addition, the shifting nature of cigarette smuggling from larger to smaller consignments often results in seizures that are too small to qualify for the payments. Consequently, the seizure payments represent a tiny fraction of the revenue lost from cigarette smuggling, between 2004 and 2012, 0.08% of the estimated losses due to illicit cigarette trade in the EU. Our evidence suggests the EU should end these agreements.

The Cost Effectiveness of Nalmefene for Reduction of Alcohol Consumption in Alcohol-Dependent Patients with High or Very High Drinking-Risk Levels from a UK Societal Perspective

AIM

To evaluate costs and health outcomes of nalmefene plus psychosocial support, compared with psychosocial intervention alone, for reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients, specifically focusing on societal costs related to productivity losses and crime.

METHODS

A Markov model was constructed to model costs and health outcomes of the treatments over 5 years. Analyses were conducted for nalmefene's licensed population: adults with both alcohol dependence and high or very high drinking-risk levels (DRLs) who do not require immediate detoxification and who have high or very high DRLs after initial assessment. The main outcome measure was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained as assessed from a UK societal perspective. Alcohol-attributable productivity loss, crime and health events occurring at different levels of alcohol consumption were taken from published risk-relation studies. Health-related and societal costs were drawn from public data and the literature. Data on the treatment effect, as well as baseline characteristics of the modelled population and utilities, came from three pivotal phase 3 trials of nalmefene.

RESULTS

Nalmefene plus psychosocial support was dominant compared with psychosocial intervention alone, resulting in QALYs gained and reduced societal costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that this conclusion was robust. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support led to per-patient reduced costs of £3324 and £2483, due to reduced productivity losses and crime events, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Nalmefene is cost effective from a UK societal perspective, resulting in greater QALY gains and lower costs compared with psychosocial support alone. Nalmefene demonstrates considerable public benefits by reducing alcohol-attributable productivity losses and crime events in adults with both alcohol dependence and high or very high DRLs who do not require immediate detoxification and who have high or very high DRLs after initial assessment.

Cost analysis of long-term outcomes of an urban mental health court

Multiple studies have demonstrated decreased recidivism and increased treatment engagement for individuals with serious mental illness involved in Mental Health Courts (MHC). However, the limited availability of social and fiscal resources requires an analysis of the relationship between a program's effectiveness and its costs. Outcome costs associated with a sample of 105 participants discharged for more than 1 year - and grouped by completion status - were compared to an eligible sample not enrolled (n=45). Transactional costs analysis (TCA) was used to calculate outcomes associated with treatment, arrest, and confinement in the 12-month post-MHC. Total outcome costs for the Successful Group ($16,964) significantly differed from the Unsuccessful ($32,258) and Compare Groups ($39,870). Costs associated with the higher number of arrests for those in the Compare Group created the largest differences. Total cost savings between Successful and Compare (M=$22,906) equated to $916,240 and savings between Unsuccessful and Compare (M=$7612) were $494,708. The total combined cost savings for participants in the 12-month post-MHC period was $1,411,020. While it is important to understand that MHCs and the individuals that they serve vary and these results are for a felony-level court, policy makers and researchers can use these results to guide their decision-making.

Drug Trafficking Organizations and Local Economic Activity in Mexico

Little is known about the relationship between illegal firms and local economic activity. In this paper I study changes in satellite night lights across Mexican municipalities after the arrival of large drug trafficking organizations in the period 2000-2010. After accounting for state trends and differences in political regimes, results indicate no significant change in night lights after the arrival of these illegal firms. Estimated coefficients are precise, robust, and similar across different drug trafficking organizations.

Focus group study of public opinion about paying living kidney donors in Australia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The unmet demand for kidney transplantation has generated intense controversy about introducing incentives for living kidney donors to increase donation rates. Such debates may affect public perception and acceptance of living kidney donation. This study aims to describe the range and depth of public opinion on financial reimbursement, compensation, and incentives for living kidney donors.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Twelve focus groups were conducted with 113 participants recruited from the general public in three Australian states in February 2013. Thematic analysis was used to analyze the transcripts.

RESULTS

Five themes were identified: creating ethical impasses (commodification of the body, quandary of kidney valuation, pushing moral boundaries), corrupting motivations (exposing the vulnerable, inevitable abuse, supplanting altruism), determining justifiable risk (compromising kidney quality, undue harm, accepting a confined risk, trusting protective mechanisms, right to autonomy), driving access (urgency of organ shortage, minimizing disadvantage, guaranteeing cost-efficiency, providing impetus, counteracting black markets), and honoring donor deservingness (fairness and reason, reassurance and rewards, merited recompense). Reimbursement and justifiable recompense are considered by the Australian public as a legitimate way of supporting donors and reducing disadvantage. Financial payment beyond reimbursement is regarded as morally reprehensible, with the potential for exploitative commercialism. Some contend that regulated compensation could be a defensible strategy to increased donation rates provided that mechanisms are in place to protect donors.

CONCLUSIONS

The perceived threat to community values of human dignity, goodwill, and fairness suggests that there could be strong public resistance to any form of financial inducements for living kidney donors. Policy priorities addressing the removal of disincentives may be more acceptable to the public.

Costs of Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder in the Canadian Criminal Justice System

We reviewed literature to estimate the costs of Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) in the Canadian Criminal Justice System (CJS), and to update the total costs of FASD in Canada. The results suggest FASD is costlier than previous estimates. The costs of FASD associated with the CJS are estimated at $3.9 billion a year, with $1.2 billion for police, $0.4 billion for court, $0.5 billion for correctional services, $1.6 billion for victims, and $0.2 billion for third-party. The updated total costs of FASD in Canada are $9.7 billion a year, of which CJS accounts for 40%, healthcare 21%, education 17%, social services 13%, and others 9%.

The cost of implementing a jail diversion program for people with mental illness in San Antonio, Texas

Jail diversion programs for people with mental illness are designed to redirect offenders with mental illness into community treatment. Although much has been published about program models and their successes, little detail is available to policy makers and community stakeholders on the resources required to start and implement a jail diversion program and which agencies bear how much of the burden. The current study used data on a model jail diversion program in San Antonio, Texas, to address this research gap. Data on staff costs, client contacts, planning, and implementation were collected for three types of diversion: pre-booking police, post-booking bond, and post-booking docket. An activity-based costing algorithm was developed to which parameter values were applied. The start-up cost for the program was $556,638.69. Pre-booking diversion cost $370 per person; 90% of costs were incurred by community mental health agencies for short-term monitoring and screening (>80% of activities). Post-booking bond and docket diversion cost $238 and $205 per person, respectively; the majority of costs were incurred by the courts for court decisions. Developing a multiple-intercept jail diversion program requires significant up-front investment. The share of costs varies greatly depending on the type of diversion.

Are risk factors for drug use and offending similar during the teenage years?

BACKGROUND

This paper explores whether at different stages of the developmental cycle of adolescence, drug use and offending are associated with a similar set of risk factors relating to: socio-structural position, informal social control, deviant peer group contexts, and deviant lifestyle behaviours.

METHODS

Multivariate regression was used to analyse data from the Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and Crime (ESYTC) self-report questionnaire.

RESULTS

Early in the teenage years drug use was associated with a similar set of factors to offending. These include weak bonds to parents and teachers, and deviant lifestyle behaviours. However, later in the teenage years there were differences, e.g. drug use was associated with higher socio-economic status and importance of school, and a number of factors which were associated with offending were not associated with drug use, e.g. parent-child conflict, gang membership and hanging around.

CONCLUSION

Results show that the factors included here are more appropriate to understanding offending than drug use. Different risk factors are associated with drug use and offending in the older, but not younger teens. It is argued that later in the teenage years drug use should be understood and addressed differently to offending. This is particularly important given the tendency for the 'drugs problem' to increasingly be dealt with as a 'crime problem' (Duke, 2006).

Income inequality, poverty and crime across nations

We examine the relationship between income inequality, poverty, and different types of crime. Our results are consistent with recent research in showing that inequality is unrelated to homicide rates when poverty is controlled. In our multi-level analyses of the International Crime Victimization Survey we find that inequality is unrelated to assault, robbery, burglary, and theft when poverty is controlled. We argue that there are also theoretical reasons to doubt that the level of income inequality of a country affects the likelihood of criminal behaviour.

Towards a greater understanding of the illicit tobacco trade in Europe: a review of the PMI funded 'Project Star' report

BACKGROUND

Following a legal agreement with the European Union (EU), Philip Morris International (PMI) commissions a yearly report ('Project Star', PS) on the European illicit cigarette trade from KPMG, the global accountancy firm.

METHODS

Review of PS 2010 report. Comparison with data from independent sources including a 2010 pan-European survey (N=18,056).

FINDINGS

Within PS, data covering all 27 EU countries are entered into a model. While the model itself seems appropriate, concerns are identified with the methodologies underlying the data inputs and thus their quality: there is little transparency over methodologies; interview data underestimate legal non-domestic product partly by failing to account for legal cross-border sales; illicit cigarette estimates rely on tobacco industry empty pack surveys which may overestimate illicit; and there is an over-reliance on data supplied by PMI with inadequate external validation. Thus, PMI sales data are validated using PMI smoking prevalence estimates, yet PMI is unable to provide sales (shipment) data for the Greek islands and its prevalence estimates differ grossly from independent data. Consequently, comparisons with independent data suggest PS will tend to overestimate illicit cigarette levels particularly where cross-border shopping is frequent (Austria, Finland, France) and in Western compared with Eastern European countries. The model also provides data on the nature of the illicit cigarette market independent of seizure data suggesting that almost a quarter of the illicit cigarette market in 2010 comprised PMI's own brands compared with just 5% counterfeited PMI brands; a finding hidden in PMI's public representation of the data.

CONCLUSIONS

PS overestimates illicit cigarette levels in some European countries and suggests PMI's supply chain control is inadequate. Its publication serves the interests of PMI over those of the EU and its member states. PS requires greater transparency, external scrutiny and use of independent data.

Link between unemployment and crime in the US: a Markov-Switching approach

This study has two goals. The first is to use Markov Switching models to identify and analyze the cycles in the unemployment rate and four different types of property-related criminal activities in the US. The second is to apply the nonparametric concordance index of Harding and Pagan (2006) to determine the correlation between the cycles of unemployment rate and property crimes. Findings show that there is a positive but insignificant relationship between the unemployment rate, burglary, larceny, and robbery. However, the unemployment rate has a significant and negative (i.e., a counter-cyclical) relationship with motor-vehicle theft. Therefore, more motor-vehicle thefts occur during economic expansions relative to contractions. Next, we divide the sample into three different subsamples to examine the consistency of the findings. The results show that the co-movements between the unemployment rate and property crimes during recession periods are much weaker, when compared with that of the normal periods of the US economy.

The effect of illicit financial flows on time to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal in Sub-Saharan Africa: a quantitative analysis

OBJECTIVES

This paper sets out to estimate the cost of illicit financial flows (IFF) in terms of the amount of time it could take to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) in 34 African countries.

DESIGN

We have calculated the percentage increase in gross domestic product (GDP) if IFFs were curtailed using IFF/GDP ratios. We applied the income (GDP) elasticity of child mortality to the increase in GDP to estimate the reduction in time to reach the fourth MDG in 34 African countries.

PARTICIPANTS

children aged under five years.

SETTINGS

34 countries in SSA.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Reduction in time to reach the first indicator of the fourth MDG, under-five mortality rate in the absence of IFF.

RESULTS

We found that in the 34 SSA countries, six countries will achieve their fourth MDG target at the current rates of decline. In the absence of IFF, 16 countries would reach their fourth MDG target by 2015 and there would be large reductions for all other countries.

CONCLUSIONS

This drain on development is facilitated by financial secrecy in other jurisdictions. Rich and poor countries alike must stem the haemorrhage of IFF by taking decisive steps towards improving financial transparency.

The empirical analysis of cigarette tax avoidance and illicit trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.

Measuring changes in the illicit cigarette market using government revenue data: the example of South Africa

Background

The tobacco industry claims that illicit trade in cigarettes has increased sharply since the 1990s and that government has lost substantial tax revenue.

Objectives

(1) To determine whether cigarette excise tax revenue has been below budget in recent years, compared with previous decades. (2) To determine trends in the size of the illicit market since 1995.

Methods

For (1), mean percentage errors and root mean square percentage errors were calculated for budget revenue deviation for three products (cigarettes, beer and spirits), for various subperiods. For (2), predicted changes in total consumption, using actual cigarette price and GDP changes and previously published price and income elasticity estimates, were calculated and compared with changes in tax-paid consumption.

Results

Cigarette excise revenues were 0.7% below budget for 2000–2012 on average, compared with 3.0% below budget for beer and 4.7% below budget for spirits. There is no evidence that illicit trade in cigarettes in South Africa increased between 2002 and 2009. There is a substantial increase in illicit trade in 2010, probably peaking in 2011. In 2012 tax-paid consumption of cigarettes increased 2.6%, implying that the illicit market share decreased an estimated 0.6 percentage points.

Conclusions

Other than in 2010, there is no evidence that illicit trade is significantly undermining government revenue. Claims that illicit trade has consistently increased over the past 15 years, and has continued its sharp increase since 2010, are not supported.

Delinquency best treatments: how to divert youths from violence while saving lives and detention costs

Youth development and violence prevention are two sides of the same public policy. The focus of much theoretical and empirical effort is identifying delinquency risks and intervening. Given the great costs of homicide and the historically high nationwide prison population, new policies must address increasing violence and rising expenses. Treatments of prenatal care, home visitation, bullying prevention, alcohol-substance abuse education, alternative thinking promotion, mentoring, life skills training, rewards for graduation and employment, functional family and multi-systemic therapy, and multi-dimensional foster care are effective, because they ameliorate age-specific risks for delinquency. At present, these interventions only yield a 10-40% diversion from crime however. Returns on investment (ROIs) vary from $1 to $98. Targeting empirical treatments to those determined to be most at risk, based on statistical models or actuarial testing, and using electronic surveillance for non-violent prisoners significantly diverted youth from violence, improving ROI, while simultaneously saving costs.

Economic evaluation of multisystemic therapy for young people at risk for continuing criminal activity in the UK

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether multisystemic therapy (MST) is more cost-effective than statutory interventions that are currently available for young offenders in England.

METHOD

A cost-offset evaluation of MST based on data from a randomised controlled trial conducted in North London, England, comparing MST with usual services provided by two youth offending teams (YOT). Service costs were compared to cost savings in terms of rates of criminal re-offending.

RESULTS

108 adolescents, aged 11-17 years, were randomly allocated to MST+YOT (n = 56) or YOT alone (n = 52). Reductions in offending were evident in both groups, but were higher in the MST+YOT group. At 18-month follow-up, the MST+YOT group cost less in terms of criminal activity (£9,425 versus £11,715, p = 0.456). The MST+YOT group were significantly cheaper in terms of YOT services than the YOT group (£3,402 versus £4,619, p = 0.006), but more expensive including the cost of MST, although not significantly so (£5,687 versus £4,619, p = 0.195). The net benefit per young person for the 18-month follow-up was estimated to be £1,222 (95% CI -£5,838 to £8,283).

CONCLUSIONS

The results reported in this study support the finding that MST+YOT has scope for cost-savings when compared to YOT alone. However, the limitations of the study in terms of method of economic evaluation, outcome measures used and data quality support the need for further research.

The age-crime curve in adolescence and early adulthood is not due to age differences in economic status

One of the most consistent findings in developmental criminology is the "age-crime curve"-the observation that criminal behavior increases in adolescence and decreases in adulthood. Recently, Brown and Males (Justice policy J 8:1-30, 2011) conducted an analysis of aggregate arrest, poverty, and population data from California and concluded that the widely-observed adolescent peak in rates of offending is not a consequence of developmental factors, but rather an artifact of age differences in economic status. Youngsters, they argue, offend more than adults because they are poorer than adults. The present study challenges Brown and Males' proposition by analyzing data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY97; N = 8,984; 51% female; 26% Black, 21% Hispanic, 52% non-Black, non-Hispanic; ages 12-18 at Wave 1), which collected measures of criminal behavior and economic status at multiple time points. Consistent with scores of other studies, we find that criminal offending peaks in adolescence, even after controlling for variation in economic status. Our findings both counter Brown and Males' claim that the age-crime curve is illusory and underscore the danger of drawing inferences about individual behavior from analysis of aggregated data.

Devastating decline of forest elephants in central Africa

African forest elephants- taxonomically and functionally unique-are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork) revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002-2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced.