1
|
Belis CA, Van Dingenen R, Klimont Z, Dentener F. Scenario analysis of PM 2.5 and ozone impacts on health, crops and climate with TM5-FASST: A case study in the Western Balkans. J Environ Manage 2022; 319:115738. [PMID: 35982558 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115738] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2021] [Revised: 06/03/2022] [Accepted: 07/09/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Claudio A Belis
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, VA, Italy.
| | - Rita Van Dingenen
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, VA, Italy
| | - Zbigniew Klimont
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, VA, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Fu JS, Carmichael GR, Dentener F, Aas W, Andersson C, Barrie LA, Cole A, Galy-Lacaux C, Geddes J, Itahashi S, Kanakidou M, Labrador L, Paulot F, Schwede D, Tan J, Vet R. Improving Estimates of Sulfur, Nitrogen, and Ozone Total Deposition through Multi-Model and Measurement-Model Fusion Approaches. Environ Sci Technol 2022; 56:2134-2142. [PMID: 35081307 PMCID: PMC8962501 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c05929] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Earth system and environmental impact studies need high quality and up-to-date estimates of atmospheric deposition. This study demonstrates the methodological benefits of multimodel ensemble and measurement-model fusion mapping approaches for atmospheric deposition focusing on 2010, a year for which several studies were conducted. Global model-only deposition assessment can be further improved by integrating new model-measurement techniques, including expanded capabilities of satellite observations of atmospheric composition. We identify research and implementation priorities for timely estimates of deposition globally as implemented by the World Meteorological Organization.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joshua S Fu
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, United States
- Computational Earth Sciences Group, Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37380, United States
| | - Gregory R Carmichael
- Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242, United States
| | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, 21027 Ispra VA Italy
| | - Wenche Aas
- NILU - Norwegian Institute for Air Research, 2007 Kjeller, Norway
| | - Camilla Andersson
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Leonard A Barrie
- Department of Atmosphere and Ocean Science, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 0B9, Canada
| | - Amanda Cole
- Air Quality Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario M3H 5T4, Canada
| | - Corinne Galy-Lacaux
- Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
| | - Jeffrey Geddes
- Department of Earth & Environment, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, United States
| | - Syuichi Itahashi
- Environmental Science Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Chiba 270-1194, Japan
| | - Maria Kanakidou
- Environmental Chemical Processes laboratory, Department of Chemistry, University of Crete, 70013 Heraklion - Crete Greece
- Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, 28359 Bremen, Germany
| | - Lorenzo Labrador
- Global Atmosphere Watch Programme, Science and Innovation Department, World Meteorological Organization, Case postale 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland
| | - Fabien Paulot
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08540, United States
| | - Donna Schwede
- Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Calonia 27709, United States
| | - Jiani Tan
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, United States
- Jiani Tan is now in Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55128 Mainz, Germany
| | - Robert Vet
- Unaffiliated, Markham, Ontario L3R 1P5, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Belis C, Van Dingenen R, Klimont Z, Dentener F. Impact of air pollution on health in South-East Europe. Eur J Public Health 2021. [DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckab164.113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
The Western Balkans (WB; Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo*, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia) is a region next to the European Union where the levels of air pollution are among the highest of Europe and transboundary pollution with neighbouring countries is frequent. The estimated PM2.5 average exposure index in the WB is above the exposure concentration obligation (20 µg/m3) of Directive EU/2008/50. In this study, the TM5-FAst Scenario Screening Tool (TM5-FASST) was used to estimate the trends of air quality impacts on health, from 2000 to 2050 in the WB. To that end, five ECLIPSE 6b emission scenarios with different assumptions on population growth, deployment of technologies and policies were compared. Mortality from PM2.5 and ozone were calculated using the integrated exposure-response model (IER) and a log-linear exposure-response function, respectively, in line with the Global Burden of Disease assessment for 2017. The implementation of the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios in the WB would lead to a decrease in the mortality associated with PM2.5 of 49% - 65% in 2050 compared to the current legislation baseline (CLE). On the contrary, no further control (NFC) scenarios would cause an increase in PM2.5 mortality of 16% - 21% in 2050 compared to the CLE. Furthermore, compared to the CLE baseline in 2050, lack of action would lead to an 11% - 21% increase in mortality in neighbouring countries, due to transboundary pollution originating in the WB region. As a whole, the study confirms that implementing the adopted policies would lead to a reduction of the air pollution impacts in the coming decades and provides estimates of the maximum benefits expected from ambitious policies and the impact of not implementing the currently adopted ones.
(* This designation is without prejudice to position on status and is in line with the UNSCR 1244/99 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.)
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- C Belis
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | - R Van Dingenen
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | - Z Klimont
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - F Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Toreti A, Deryng D, Tubiello FN, Müller C, Kimball BA, Moser G, Boote K, Asseng S, Pugh TAM, Vanuytrecht E, Pleijel H, Webber H, Durand JL, Dentener F, Ceglar A, Wang X, Badeck F, Lecerf R, Wall GW, van den Berg M, Hoegy P, Lopez-Lozano R, Zampieri M, Galmarini S, O'Leary GJ, Manderscheid R, Mencos Contreras E, Rosenzweig C. Narrowing uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO 2 on crops. Nat Food 2020; 1:775-782. [PMID: 37128059 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-020-00195-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2020] [Accepted: 11/06/2020] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Toreti
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy.
| | - Delphine Deryng
- NewClimate Institute, Berlin, Germany.
- IRI THESys, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany.
| | - Francesco N Tubiello
- Statistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Bruce A Kimball
- US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, USDA-ARS, Maricopa, AZ, USA
| | - Gerald Moser
- Department of Plant Ecology, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
| | | | | | - Thomas A M Pugh
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Eline Vanuytrecht
- Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Mol, Belgium
- KU Leuven, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Håkan Pleijel
- Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Heidi Webber
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
| | | | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Andrej Ceglar
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Xuhui Wang
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Franz Badeck
- Council for Agricultural Research and Agricultural Economics, Research Centre for Genomics and Bioinformatics, CREA-GB, Fiorenzuola d'Arda, Italy
| | - Remi Lecerf
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Gerard W Wall
- US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, USDA-ARS, Maricopa, AZ, USA
| | | | | | | | - Matteo Zampieri
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | | | | | | | - Erik Mencos Contreras
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Cynthia Rosenzweig
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Dentener F, Emberson L, Galmarini S, Cappelli G, Irimescu A, Mihailescu D, Van Dingenen R, van den Berg M. Lower air pollution during COVID-19 lock-down: improving models and methods estimating ozone impacts on crops. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 2020; 378:20200188. [PMID: 32981442 PMCID: PMC7536037 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2020.0188] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/01/2020] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
We suggest that the unprecedented and unintended decrease of emissions of air pollutants during the COVID-19 lock-down in 2020 could lead to declining seasonal ozone concentrations and positive impacts on crop yields. An initial assessment of the potential effects of COVID-19 emission reductions was made using a set of six scenarios that variously assumed annual European and global emission reductions of 30% and 50% for the energy, industry, road transport and international shipping sectors, and 80% for the aviation sector. The greatest ozone reductions during the growing season reached up to 12 ppb over crop growing regions in Asia and up to 6 ppb in North America and Europe for the 50% global reduction scenario. In Europe, ozone responses are more sensitive to emission declines in other continents, international shipping and aviation than to emissions changes within Europe. We demonstrate that for wheat the overall magnitude of ozone precursor emission changes could lead to yield improvements between 2% and 8%. The expected magnitude of ozone precursor emission reductions during the Northern Hemisphere growing season in 2020 presents an opportunity to test and improve crop models and experimentally based exposure response relationships of ozone impacts on crops, under real-world conditions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Frank Dentener
- Directorate for Sustainable Resources, Transport and Climate, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy
- e-mail:
| | - Lisa Emberson
- Environment & Geography Department, University of York, Environment Building, Heslington, York, North Yorkshire YO10 5NG, UK
| | - Stefano Galmarini
- Directorate for Sustainable Resources, Transport and Climate, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| | - Giovanni Cappelli
- Research Centre for Agriculture and Environment, Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, via di Corticella 133, 40128, Bologna, Italy
| | - Anisoara Irimescu
- Remote Sensing & GIS Laboratory, National Meteorological Administration, Sos. Bucuresti-Ploiesti, No. 97, Sect. 1, Bucharest 013686, Romania
| | - Denis Mihailescu
- Remote Sensing & GIS Laboratory, National Meteorological Administration, Sos. Bucuresti-Ploiesti, No. 97, Sect. 1, Bucharest 013686, Romania
| | - Rita Van Dingenen
- Directorate for Energy, Transport and Climate, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| | - Maurits van den Berg
- Directorate for Sustainable Resources, Transport and Climate, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Zampieri M, Weissteiner CJ, Grizzetti B, Toreti A, van den Berg M, Dentener F. Estimating resilience of crop production systems: From theory to practice. Sci Total Environ 2020; 735:139378. [PMID: 32480148 PMCID: PMC7374405 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139378] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2020] [Revised: 05/04/2020] [Accepted: 05/10/2020] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Agricultural production systems are sensitive to weather and climate anomalies and extremes as well as to other environmental and socio-economic adverse events. An adequate evaluation of the resilience of such systems helps to assess food security and the capacity of society to cope with the effects of global warming and the associated increase of climate extremes. Here, we propose and apply a simple indicator of resilience of annual crop production that can be estimated from crop production time series. First, we address the problem of quantifying resilience in a simplified theoretical framework, focusing on annual crops. This results in the proposal of an indicator, measured by the reciprocal of the squared coefficient of variance, which is proportional to the return period of the largest shocks that the crop production system can absorb, and which is consistent with the original ecological definition of resilience. Subsequently, we show the sensitivity of the crop resilience indicator to the level of management of the crop production system, to the frequency of extreme events as well as to simplified socio-economic impacts of the production losses. Finally, we demonstrate the practical applicability of the indicator using historical production data at national and sub-national levels for France. The results show that the value of the resilience indicator steeply increases with crop diversity until six crops are considered, and then levels off. The effect of diversity on production resilience is highest when crops are more diverse (i.e. as reflected in less well correlated production time series). In the case of France, the indicator reaches about 60% of the value that would be expected if all crop production time-series were uncorrelated.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Matteo Zampieri
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy.
| | | | - Bruna Grizzetti
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy.
| | - Andrea Toreti
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy.
| | | | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy.
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Galmarini S, Cannon A, Ceglar A, Christensen O, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Dentener F, Doblas-Reyes F, Dosio A, Gutierrez J, Iturbide M, Jury M, Lange S, Loukos H, Maiorano A, Maraun D, McGinnis S, Nikulin G, Riccio A, Sanchez E, Solazzo E, Toreti A, Vrac M, Zampieri M. Adjusting climate model bias for agricultural impact assessment: How to cut the mustard. Clim Serv 2019; 13:65-69. [PMID: 33150217 PMCID: PMC7594620 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2019.01.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2018] [Revised: 01/11/2019] [Accepted: 01/21/2019] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- S. Galmarini
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - A.J. Cannon
- Environment and Climate Change Canada, Canada
| | - A. Ceglar
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | | | | | - F. Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - F.J. Doblas-Reyes
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Spain
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), Spain
| | - A. Dosio
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | | | - M. Iturbide
- Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Spain
| | - M. Jury
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Austria
| | - S. Lange
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany
| | - H. Loukos
- The Climate Data Factory, Paris, France
| | | | - D. Maraun
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Austria
| | - S. McGinnis
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), United States
| | - G. Nikulin
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Sweden
| | - A. Riccio
- University of Naples “Parthenope”, Italy
| | - E. Sanchez
- UCLM, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain
| | - E. Solazzo
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - A. Toreti
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - M. Vrac
- Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), France
| | - M. Zampieri
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Schwede DB, Simpson D, Tan J, Fu JS, Dentener F, Du E, deVries W. Spatial variation of modelled total, dry and wet nitrogen deposition to forests at global scale. Environ Pollut 2018; 243:1287-1301. [PMID: 30267923 PMCID: PMC7050289 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2018.09.084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2018] [Revised: 09/12/2018] [Accepted: 09/17/2018] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Forests are an important biome that covers about one third of the global land surface and provides important ecosystem services. Since atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) can have both beneficial and deleterious effects, it is important to quantify the amount of N deposition to forest ecosystems. Measurements of N deposition to the numerous forest biomes across the globe are scarce, so chemical transport models are often used to provide estimates of atmospheric N inputs to these ecosystems. We provide an overview of approaches used to calculate N deposition in commonly used chemical transport models. The Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP2) study intercompared N deposition values from a number of global chemical transport models. Using a multi-model mean calculated from the HTAP2 deposition values, we map N deposition to global forests to examine spatial variations in total, dry and wet deposition. Highest total N deposition occurs in eastern and southern China, Japan, Eastern U.S. and Europe while the highest dry deposition occurs in tropical forests. The European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) model predicts grid-average deposition, but also produces deposition by land use type allowing us to compare deposition specifically to forests with the grid-average value. We found that, for this study, differences between the grid-average and forest specific could be as much as a factor of two and up to more than a factor of five in extreme cases. This suggests that consideration should be given to using forest-specific deposition for input to ecosystem assessments such as critical loads determinations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Donna B Schwede
- National Exposure Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27711, United States.
| | - David Simpson
- EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; Dept. Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Jiani Tan
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USA
| | - Joshua S Fu
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USA
| | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | - Enzai Du
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Wim deVries
- Wageningen University and Research, Environmental Research, PO Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands; Wageningen University and Research, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, PO Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Mills G, Sharps K, Simpson D, Pleijel H, Broberg M, Uddling J, Jaramillo F, Davies WJ, Dentener F, Van den Berg M, Agrawal M, Agrawal SB, Ainsworth EA, Büker P, Emberson L, Feng Z, Harmens H, Hayes F, Kobayashi K, Paoletti E, Van Dingenen R. Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:3560-3574. [PMID: 29604158 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14157] [Citation(s) in RCA: 89] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2018] [Accepted: 03/08/2018] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010-2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Gina Mills
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bangor, UK
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | - David Simpson
- EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Håkan Pleijel
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Malin Broberg
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Johan Uddling
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Fernando Jaramillo
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - William J Davies
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | | | | | | | | | - Patrick Büker
- Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, York, UK
| | - Lisa Emberson
- Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, York, UK
| | - Zhaozhong Feng
- Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | | | | | - Kazuhiko Kobayashi
- Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
10
|
Baker AR, Kanakidou M, Altieri KE, Daskalakis N, Okin GS, Myriokefalitakis S, Dentener F, Uematsu M, Sarin MM, Duce RA, Galloway JN, Keene WC, Singh A, Zamora L, Lamarque JF, Hsu SC, Rohekar SS, Prospero JM. Observation- and Model-Based Estimates of Particulate Dry Nitrogen Deposition to the Oceans. Atmos Chem Phys 2017; 17:8189-8210. [PMID: 29151838 PMCID: PMC5685536 DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-8189-2017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) emissions to the atmosphere have increased significantly the deposition of nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) to the surface waters of the open ocean, with potential impacts on marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. Global-scale understanding of the impacts of N deposition to the oceans is reliant on our ability to produce and validate models of nitrogen emission, atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition. In this work, ~2900 observations of aerosol NO3- and NH4+ concentrations, acquired from sampling aboard ships in the period 1995 - 2012, are used to assess the performance of modelled N concentration and deposition fields over the remote ocean. Three ocean regions (the eastern tropical North Atlantic, the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific) were selected, in which the density and distribution of observational data were considered sufficient to provide effective comparison to model products. All of these study regions are affected by transport and deposition of mineral dust, which alters the deposition of N, due to uptake of nitrogen oxides (NOx) on mineral surfaces. Assessment of the impacts of atmospheric N deposition on the ocean requires atmospheric chemical transport models to report deposition fluxes, however these fluxes cannot be measured over the ocean. Modelling studies such as the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), which only report deposition flux are therefore very difficult to validate for dry deposition. Here the available observational data were averaged over a 5° × 5° grid and compared to ACCMIP dry deposition fluxes (ModDep) of oxidised N (NOy) and reduced N (NHx) and to the following parameters from the TM4-ECPL (TM4) model: ModDep for NOy, NHx and particulate NO3- and NH4+, and surface-level particulate NO3- and NH4+ concentrations. As a model ensemble, ACCMIP can be expected to be more robust than TM4, while TM4 gives access to speciated parameters (NO3- and NH4+) that are more relevant to the observed parameters and which are not available in ACCMIP. Dry deposition fluxes (CalDep) were calculated from the observed concentrations using estimates of dry deposition velocities. Model - observation ratios, weighted by grid-cell area and numbers of observations, (RA,n) were used to assess the performance of the models. Comparison in the three study regions suggests that TM4 over-estimates NO3- concentrations (RA,n = 1.4 - 2.9) and under-estimates NH4+ concentrations (RA,n = 0.5 - 0.7), with spatial distributions in the tropical Atlantic and northern Indian Ocean not being reproduced by the model. In the case of NH4+ in the Indian Ocean, this discrepancy was probably due to seasonal biases in the sampling. Similar patterns were observed in the various comparisons of CalDep to ModDep (RA,n = 0.6 - 2.6 for NO3-, 0.6 - 3.1 for NH4+). Values of RA,n for NHx CalDep - ModDep comparisons were approximately double the corresponding values for NH4+ CalDep - ModDep comparisons due to the significant fraction of gas-phase NH3 deposition incorporated in the TM4 and ACCMIP NHx model products. All of the comparisons suffered due to the scarcity of observational data and the large uncertainty in dry deposition velocities used to derive deposition fluxes from concentrations. These uncertainties have been a major limitation on estimates of the flux of material to the oceans for several decades. Recommendations are made for improvements in N deposition estimation through changes in observations, modelling and model - observation comparison procedures. Validation of modelled dry deposition requires effective comparisons to observable aerosol-phase species concentrations and this cannot be achieved if model products only report dry deposition flux over the ocean.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Alex R. Baker
- Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
| | - Maria Kanakidou
- Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory, Department of Chemistry, University of Crete, PO Box 2208, Heraklion 70013, Greece
| | - Katye E. Altieri
- Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Nikos Daskalakis
- Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory, Department of Chemistry, University of Crete, PO Box 2208, Heraklion 70013, Greece
| | - Gregory S. Okin
- Department of Geography, University of California at Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Stelios Myriokefalitakis
- Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory, Department of Chemistry, University of Crete, PO Box 2208, Heraklion 70013, Greece
- now at IMAU, University of Utrecht, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | - Mitsuo Uematsu
- Center for International Collaboration, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan
| | - Manmohan M. Sarin
- Geosciences Division, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, 380009, India
| | - Robert A. Duce
- Departments of Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA
| | - James N. Galloway
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
| | - William C. Keene
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
| | - Arvind Singh
- Geosciences Division, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, 380009, India
| | - Lauren Zamora
- Climate and Radiation Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA
| | - Jean-Francois Lamarque
- NCAR Earth System Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Shih-Chieh Hsu
- Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Shital S. Rohekar
- Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
- now at School of Physics, Astronomy and Maths, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, UK
| | - Joseph M. Prospero
- Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Galmarini S, Koffi B, Solazzo E, Keating T, Hogrefe C, Schulz M, Benedictow A, Griesfeller JJ, Janssens-Maenhout G, Carmichael G, Fu J, Dentener F. Technical note: Coordination and harmonization of the multi-scale, multi-model activities HTAP2, AQMEII3, and MICS-Asia3: simulations, emission inventories, boundary conditions, and model output formats. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2017. [PMID: 29541091 PMCID: PMC5846500 DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-1543-2017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
We present an overview of the coordinated global numerical modelling experiments performed during 2012–2016 by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the regional experiments by the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) over Europe and North America, and the Model Intercomparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia). To improve model estimates of the impacts of intercontinental transport of air pollution on climate, ecosystems, and human health and to answer a set of policy-relevant questions, these three initiatives performed emission perturbation modelling experiments consistent across the global, hemispheric, and continental/regional scales. In all three initiatives, model results are extensively compared against monitoring data for a range of variables (meteorological, trace gas concentrations, and aerosol mass and composition) from different measurement platforms (ground measurements, vertical profiles, airborne measurements) collected from a number of sources. Approximately 10 to 25 modelling groups have contributed to each initiative, and model results have been managed centrally through three data hubs maintained by each initiative. Given the organizational complexity of bringing together these three initiatives to address a common set of policy-relevant questions, this publication provides the motivation for the modelling activity, the rationale for specific choices made in the model experiments, and an overview of the organizational structures for both the modelling and the measurements used and analysed in a number of modelling studies in this special issue.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Brigitte Koffi
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | - Efisio Solazzo
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | - Terry Keating
- Environmental Protection Agency, Applied Science and Education Division, National Center for Environmental Research, Office of Research and Development, Headquarters, Federal Triangle, Washington, DC 20460, USA
| | - Christian Hogrefe
- Environmental Protection Agency, Computational Exposure Division, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Greg Carmichael
- Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA
| | - Joshua Fu
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA
| | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Koffi B, Schulz M, Bréon FM, Dentener F, Steensen BM, Griesfeller J, Winker D, Balkanski Y, Bauer SE, Bellouin N, Berntsen T, Bian H, Chin M, Diehl T, Easter R, Ghan S, Hauglustaine DA, Iversen T, Kirkevåg A, Liu X, Lohmann U, Myhre G, Rasch P, Seland Ø, Skeie RB, Steenrod SD, Stier P, Tackett J, Takemura T, Tsigaridis K, Vuolo MR, Yoon J, Zhang K. Evaluation of the aerosol vertical distribution in global aerosol models through comparison against CALIOP measurements: AeroCom phase II results. J Geophys Res Atmos 2016; 121:7254-7283. [PMID: 32818126 PMCID: PMC7430518 DOI: 10.1002/2015jd024639] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
The ability of 11 models in simulating the aerosol vertical distribution from regional to global scales, as part of the second phase of the AeroCom model intercomparison initiative (AeroCom II), is assessed and compared to results of the first phase. The evaluation is performed using a global monthly gridded data set of aerosol extinction profiles built for this purpose from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) Layer Product 3.01. Results over 12 subcontinental regions show that five models improved, whereas three degraded in reproducing the interregional variability in Z α0-6 km, the mean extinction height diagnostic, as computed from the CALIOP aerosol profiles over the 0-6 km altitude range for each studied region and season. While the models' performance remains highly variable, the simulation of the timing of the Z α0-6 km peak season has also improved for all but two models from AeroCom Phase I to Phase II. The biases in Z α0-6 km are smaller in all regions except Central Atlantic, East Asia, and North and South Africa. Most of the models now underestimate Z α0-6 km over land, notably in the dust and biomass burning regions in Asia and Africa. At global scale, the AeroCom II models better reproduce the Z α0-6 km latitudinal variability over ocean than over land. Hypotheses for the performance and evolution of the individual models and for the intermodel diversity are discussed. We also provide an analysis of the CALIOP limitations and uncertainties contributing to the differences between the simulations and observations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Brigitte Koffi
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
| | | | - François-Marie Bréon
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
| | | | | | - David Winker
- NASA Langley Research Center, MS/475, Hampton, Virginia, USA
| | - Yves Balkanski
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Susanne E Bauer
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA
| | | | - Terje Berntsen
- Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
| | - Huisheng Bian
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
- Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore Country, Maryland, USA
| | - Mian Chin
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Thomas Diehl
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
| | - Richard Easter
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA
| | - Steven Ghan
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA
| | | | - Trond Iversen
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Alf Kirkevåg
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
| | - Xiaohong Liu
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA
- Now at University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA
| | | | - Gunnar Myhre
- Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
| | - Phil Rasch
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Ragnhild B Skeie
- Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Philip Stier
- Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jason Tackett
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Hampton, Virginia, USA
| | - Toshihiko Takemura
- Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
| | - Kostas Tsigaridis
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA
| | - Maria Raffaella Vuolo
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Now at National Institute for Agronomic Research, Thiverval-Grignon, France
| | - Jinho Yoon
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA
- Now at Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Gwangju, Korea
| | - Kai Zhang
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
West JJ, Cohen A, Dentener F, Brunekreef B, Zhu T, Armstrong B, Bell ML, Brauer M, Carmichael G, Costa DL, Dockery DW, Kleeman M, Krzyzanowski M, Künzli N, Liousse C, Lung SCC, Martin RV, Pöschl U, Pope CA, Roberts JM, Russell AG, Wiedinmyer C. "What We Breathe Impacts Our Health: Improving Understanding of the Link between Air Pollution and Health". Environ Sci Technol 2016; 50:4895-904. [PMID: 27010639 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b03827] [Citation(s) in RCA: 159] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Air pollution contributes to the premature deaths of millions of people each year around the world, and air quality problems are growing in many developing nations. While past policy efforts have succeeded in reducing particulate matter and trace gases in North America and Europe, adverse health effects are found at even these lower levels of air pollution. Future policy actions will benefit from improved understanding of the interactions and health effects of different chemical species and source categories. Achieving this new understanding requires air pollution scientists and engineers to work increasingly closely with health scientists. In particular, research is needed to better understand the chemical and physical properties of complex air pollutant mixtures, and to use new observations provided by satellites, advanced in situ measurement techniques, and distributed micro monitoring networks, coupled with models, to better characterize air pollution exposure for epidemiological and toxicological research, and to better quantify the effects of specific source sectors and mitigation strategies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- J Jason West
- Environmental Sciences & Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill , Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, United States
| | - Aaron Cohen
- Health Effects Institute, Boston, Massachusetts 02110, United States
| | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, I. 21027 Ispra, Italy
| | - Bert Brunekreef
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Universiteit Utrecht, and Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht , 3584 CJ Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Tong Zhu
- State Key Lab for Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University , Beijing 100871, China
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine , London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Yale University , New Haven, Connecticut 06511, United States
| | - Michael Brauer
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia , Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z3, Canada
| | - Gregory Carmichael
- Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, University of Iowa , Iowa City, Iowa 52242, United States
| | - Dan L Costa
- Air, Climate & Energy Research Program, Office of Research & Development, Environmental Protection Agency, Durham, North Carolina 27705, United States
| | - Douglas W Dockery
- Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health , Boston, Massachusetts 02115, United States
| | - Michael Kleeman
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California at Davis , Davis, California 95616, United States
| | - Michal Krzyzanowski
- Environmental Research Group, King's College London, London SE1 9NH, United Kingdom
| | - Nino Künzli
- Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute , Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland
| | - Catherine Liousse
- Laboratoire d' Aérologie, CNRS-Université de Toulouse , Toulouse 31400, France
| | | | - Randall V Martin
- Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University , Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada
- Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States
| | - Ulrich Pöschl
- Multiphase Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55128 Mainz, Germany
| | - C Arden Pope
- Economics, Brigham Young University , Provo, Utah 84602, United States
| | - James M Roberts
- Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado 80305, United States
| | - Armistead G Russell
- Civil & Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology , Atlanta, Georgia 30332, United States
| | - Christine Wiedinmyer
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80301, United States
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Brauer M, Freedman G, Frostad J, van Donkelaar A, Martin RV, Dentener F, van Dingenen R, Estep K, Amini H, Apte JS, Balakrishnan K, Barregard L, Broday D, Feigin V, Ghosh S, Hopke PK, Knibbs LD, Kokubo Y, Liu Y, Ma S, Morawska L, Sangrador JLT, Shaddick G, Anderson HR, Vos T, Forouzanfar MH, Burnett RT, Cohen A. Ambient Air Pollution Exposure Estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013. Environ Sci Technol 2016; 50:79-88. [PMID: 26595236 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b03709] [Citation(s) in RCA: 532] [Impact Index Per Article: 66.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Exposure to ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for global disease. Assessment of the impacts of air pollution on population health and evaluation of trends relative to other major risk factors requires regularly updated, accurate, spatially resolved exposure estimates. We combined satellite-based estimates, chemical transport model simulations, and ground measurements from 79 different countries to produce global estimates of annual average fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for five-year intervals from 1990 to 2010 and the year 2013. These estimates were applied to assess population-weighted mean concentrations for 1990-2013 for each of 188 countries. In 2013, 87% of the world's population lived in areas exceeding the World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m(3) PM2.5 (annual average). Between 1990 and 2013, global population-weighted PM2.5 increased by 20.4% driven by trends in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and China. Decreases in population-weighted mean concentrations of PM2.5 were evident in most high income countries. Population-weighted mean concentrations of ozone increased globally by 8.9% from 1990-2013 with increases in most countries-except for modest decreases in North America, parts of Europe, and several countries in Southeast Asia.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Michael Brauer
- School of Population and Public Health, The University of British Columbia , 3rd Floor-2206 East Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T1Z3, Canada
| | - Greg Freedman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington , Seattle Washington 98195, United States
| | - Joseph Frostad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington , Seattle Washington 98195, United States
| | - Aaron van Donkelaar
- Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University , Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Randall V Martin
- Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University , Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | | | - Kara Estep
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington , Seattle Washington 98195, United States
| | - Heresh Amini
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Joshua S Apte
- Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin , Austin Texas 78712, United States
| | - Kalpana Balakrishnan
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Sri Ramachandra University , Chennai, India
| | - Lars Barregard
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, University of Gothenburg , Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - David Broday
- Technion-Israel Institute of Technology , Civil and Environmental Engineering, Haifa, Israel
| | - Valery Feigin
- National Institute for Stroke & Applied Neurosciences, Auckland University of Technology , Aukland, New Zealand
| | - Santu Ghosh
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Sri Ramachandra University , Chennai, India
| | - Philip K Hopke
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Clarkson University , Potsdam, New York 13699, United States
| | - Luke D Knibbs
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland , Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Yoshihiro Kokubo
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center , Osaka, Japan
| | - Yang Liu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University , Atlanta, Georgia 30322, United States
| | - Stefan Ma
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore , Singapore
| | - Lidia Morawska
- School of Chemistry, Physics and Mechanical Engineering, Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Gavin Shaddick
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath , Bath, U.K
| | - H Ross Anderson
- Population Health Research Institute, St. George's University of London , London, U.K
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington , Seattle Washington 98195, United States
| | - Mohammad H Forouzanfar
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington , Seattle Washington 98195, United States
| | | | - Aaron Cohen
- Health Effects Institute , Boston, Massachusetts 02110-1817, United States
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Chafe ZA, Brauer M, Klimont Z, Van Dingenen R, Mehta S, Rao S, Riahi K, Dentener F, Smith KR. Household cooking with solid fuels contributes to ambient PM2.5 air pollution and the burden of disease. Environ Health Perspect 2014; 122:1314-20. [PMID: 25192243 PMCID: PMC4256045 DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1206340] [Citation(s) in RCA: 225] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2012] [Accepted: 09/04/2014] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Approximately 2.8 billion people cook with solid fuels. Research has focused on the health impacts of indoor exposure to fine particulate pollution. Here, for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease project (GBD 2010), we evaluated the impact of household cooking with solid fuels on regional population-weighted ambient PM2.5 (particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm) pollution (APM2.5). OBJECTIVES We estimated the proportion and concentrations of APM2.5 attributable to household cooking with solid fuels (PM2.5-cook) for the years 1990, 2005, and 2010 in 170 countries, and associated ill health. METHODS We used an energy supply-driven emissions model (GAINS; Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) and source-receptor model (TM5-FASST) to estimate the proportion of APM2.5 produced by households and the proportion of household PM2.5 emissions from cooking with solid fuels. We estimated health effects using GBD 2010 data on ill health from APM2.5 exposure. RESULTS In 2010, household cooking with solid fuels accounted for 12% of APM2.5 globally, varying from 0% of APM2.5 in five higher-income regions to 37% (2.8 μg/m3 of 6.9 μg/m3 total) in southern sub-Saharan Africa. PM2.5-cook constituted > 10% of APM2.5 in seven regions housing 4.4 billion people. South Asia showed the highest regional concentration of APM2.5 from household cooking (8.6 μg/m3). On the basis of GBD 2010, we estimate that exposure to APM2.5 from cooking with solid fuels caused the loss of 370,000 lives and 9.9 million disability-adjusted life years globally in 2010. CONCLUSIONS PM2.5 emissions from household cooking constitute an important portion of APM2.5 concentrations in many places, including India and China. Efforts to improve ambient air quality will be hindered if household cooking conditions are not addressed.
Collapse
|
16
|
Muntean M, Janssens-Maenhout G, Song S, Selin NE, Olivier JGJ, Guizzardi D, Maas R, Dentener F. Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions. Sci Total Environ 2014; 494-495:337-50. [PMID: 25068706 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.06.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2014] [Revised: 06/03/2014] [Accepted: 06/04/2014] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) provides a time-series of man-made emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived atmospheric pollutants from 1970 to 2008. Mercury is included in EDGARv4.tox1, thereby enriching the spectrum of multi-pollutant sources in the database. With an average annual growth rate of 1.3% since 1970, EDGARv4 estimates that the global mercury emissions reached 1,287 tonnes in 2008. Specifically, gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) (Hg(0)) accounted for 72% of the global total emissions, while gaseous oxidised mercury (GOM) (Hg(2+)) and particle bound mercury (PBM) (Hg-P) accounted for only 22% and 6%, respectively. The less reactive form, i.e., Hg(0), has a long atmospheric residence time and can be transported long distances from the emission sources. The artisanal and small-scale gold production, accounted for approximately half of the global Hg(0) emissions in 2008 followed by combustion (29%), cement production (12%) and other metal industry (10%). Given the local-scale impacts of mercury, special attention was given to the spatial distribution showing the emission hot-spots on gridded 0.1°×0.1° resolution maps using detailed proxy data. The comprehensive ex-post analysis of the mitigation of mercury emissions by end-of-pipe abatement measures in the power generation sector and technology changes in the chlor-alkali industry over four decades indicates reductions of 46% and 93%, respectively. Combined, the improved technologies and mitigation measures in these sectors accounted for 401.7 tonnes of avoided mercury emissions in 2008. A comparison shows that EDGARv4 anthropogenic emissions are nearly equivalent to the lower estimates of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)'s mercury emissions inventory for 2005 for most sectors. An evaluation of the EDGARv4 global mercury emission inventory, including mercury speciation, was performed using the GEOS-Chem global 3-D mercury model. The model can generally reproduce both spatial variations and long-term trends in total gaseous mercury concentrations and wet deposition fluxes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Marilena Muntean
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy.
| | - Greet Janssens-Maenhout
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
| | - Shaojie Song
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
| | - Noelle E Selin
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
| | - Jos G J Olivier
- PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Diego Guizzardi
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
| | - Rob Maas
- RIVM National Institute for Public Health and Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Sutton MA, Reis S, Riddick SN, Dragosits U, Nemitz E, Theobald MR, Tang YS, Braban CF, Vieno M, Dore AJ, Mitchell RF, Wanless S, Daunt F, Fowler D, Blackall TD, Milford C, Flechard CR, Loubet B, Massad R, Cellier P, Personne E, Coheur PF, Clarisse L, Van Damme M, Ngadi Y, Clerbaux C, Skjøth CA, Geels C, Hertel O, Wichink Kruit RJ, Pinder RW, Bash JO, Walker JT, Simpson D, Horváth L, Misselbrook TH, Bleeker A, Dentener F, de Vries W. Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and deposition. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2013; 368:20130166. [PMID: 23713128 PMCID: PMC3682750 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0166] [Citation(s) in RCA: 268] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Existing descriptions of bi-directional ammonia (NH3) land-atmosphere exchange incorporate temperature and moisture controls, and are beginning to be used in regional chemical transport models. However, such models have typically applied simpler emission factors to upscale the main NH3 emission terms. While this approach has successfully simulated the main spatial patterns on local to global scales, it fails to address the environment- and climate-dependence of emissions. To handle these issues, we outline the basis for a new modelling paradigm where both NH3 emissions and deposition are calculated online according to diurnal, seasonal and spatial differences in meteorology. We show how measurements reveal a strong, but complex pattern of climatic dependence, which is increasingly being characterized using ground-based NH3 monitoring and satellite observations, while advances in process-based modelling are illustrated for agricultural and natural sources, including a global application for seabird colonies. A future architecture for NH3 emission-deposition modelling is proposed that integrates the spatio-temporal interactions, and provides the necessary foundation to assess the consequences of climate change. Based on available measurements, a first empirical estimate suggests that 5°C warming would increase emissions by 42 per cent (28-67%). Together with increased anthropogenic activity, global NH3 emissions may increase from 65 (45-85) Tg N in 2008 to reach 132 (89-179) Tg by 2100.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mark A Sutton
- NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Edinburgh, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, UK.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
18
|
Fowler D, Coyle M, Skiba U, Sutton MA, Cape JN, Reis S, Sheppard LJ, Jenkins A, Grizzetti B, Galloway JN, Vitousek P, Leach A, Bouwman AF, Butterbach-Bahl K, Dentener F, Stevenson D, Amann M, Voss M. The global nitrogen cycle in the twenty-first century. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2013; 368:20130164. [PMID: 23713126 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 480] [Impact Index Per Article: 43.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Global nitrogen fixation contributes 413 Tg of reactive nitrogen (Nr) to terrestrial and marine ecosystems annually of which anthropogenic activities are responsible for half, 210 Tg N. The majority of the transformations of anthropogenic Nr are on land (240 Tg N yr(-1)) within soils and vegetation where reduced Nr contributes most of the input through the use of fertilizer nitrogen in agriculture. Leakages from the use of fertilizer Nr contribute to nitrate (NO3(-)) in drainage waters from agricultural land and emissions of trace Nr compounds to the atmosphere. Emissions, mainly of ammonia (NH3) from land together with combustion related emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), contribute 100 Tg N yr(-1) to the atmosphere, which are transported between countries and processed within the atmosphere, generating secondary pollutants, including ozone and other photochemical oxidants and aerosols, especially ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) and ammonium sulfate (NH4)2SO4. Leaching and riverine transport of NO3 contribute 40-70 Tg N yr(-1) to coastal waters and the open ocean, which together with the 30 Tg input to oceans from atmospheric deposition combine with marine biological nitrogen fixation (140 Tg N yr(-1)) to double the ocean processing of Nr. Some of the marine Nr is buried in sediments, the remainder being denitrified back to the atmosphere as N2 or N2O. The marine processing is of a similar magnitude to that in terrestrial soils and vegetation, but has a larger fraction of natural origin. The lifetime of Nr in the atmosphere, with the exception of N2O, is only a few weeks, while in terrestrial ecosystems, with the exception of peatlands (where it can be 10(2)-10(3) years), the lifetime is a few decades. In the ocean, the lifetime of Nr is less well known but seems to be longer than in terrestrial ecosystems and may represent an important long-term source of N2O that will respond very slowly to control measures on the sources of Nr from which it is produced.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- David Fowler
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Penicuik, UK.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
19
|
Lim SS, Vos T, Flaxman AD, Danaei G, Shibuya K, Adair-Rohani H, Amann M, Anderson HR, Andrews KG, Aryee M, Atkinson C, Bacchus LJ, Bahalim AN, Balakrishnan K, Balmes J, Barker-Collo S, Baxter A, Bell ML, Blore JD, Blyth F, Bonner C, Borges G, Bourne R, Boussinesq M, Brauer M, Brooks P, Bruce NG, Brunekreef B, Bryan-Hancock C, Bucello C, Buchbinder R, Bull F, Burnett RT, Byers TE, Calabria B, Carapetis J, Carnahan E, Chafe Z, Charlson F, Chen H, Chen JS, Cheng ATA, Child JC, Cohen A, Colson KE, Cowie BC, Darby S, Darling S, Davis A, Degenhardt L, Dentener F, Des Jarlais DC, Devries K, Dherani M, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Driscoll T, Edmond K, Ali SE, Engell RE, Erwin PJ, Fahimi S, Falder G, Farzadfar F, Ferrari A, Finucane MM, Flaxman S, Fowkes FGR, Freedman G, Freeman MK, Gakidou E, Ghosh S, Giovannucci E, Gmel G, Graham K, Grainger R, Grant B, Gunnell D, Gutierrez HR, Hall W, Hoek HW, Hogan A, Hosgood HD, Hoy D, Hu H, Hubbell BJ, Hutchings SJ, Ibeanusi SE, Jacklyn GL, Jasrasaria R, Jonas JB, Kan H, Kanis JA, Kassebaum N, Kawakami N, Khang YH, Khatibzadeh S, Khoo JP, Kok C, Laden F, Lalloo R, Lan Q, Lathlean T, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Li Y, Lin JK, Lipshultz SE, London S, Lozano R, Lu Y, Mak J, Malekzadeh R, Mallinger L, Marcenes W, March L, Marks R, Martin R, McGale P, McGrath J, Mehta S, Mensah GA, Merriman TR, Micha R, Michaud C, Mishra V, Mohd Hanafiah K, Mokdad AA, Morawska L, Mozaffarian D, Murphy T, Naghavi M, Neal B, Nelson PK, Nolla JM, Norman R, Olives C, Omer SB, Orchard J, Osborne R, Ostro B, Page A, Pandey KD, Parry CDH, Passmore E, Patra J, Pearce N, Pelizzari PM, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pope D, Pope CA, Powles J, Rao M, Razavi H, Rehfuess EA, Rehm JT, Ritz B, Rivara FP, Roberts T, Robinson C, Rodriguez-Portales JA, Romieu I, Room R, Rosenfeld LC, Roy A, Rushton L, Salomon JA, Sampson U, Sanchez-Riera L, Sanman E, Sapkota A, Seedat S, Shi P, Shield K, Shivakoti R, Singh GM, Sleet DA, Smith E, Smith KR, Stapelberg NJC, Steenland K, Stöckl H, Stovner LJ, Straif K, Straney L, Thurston GD, Tran JH, Van Dingenen R, van Donkelaar A, Veerman JL, Vijayakumar L, Weintraub R, Weissman MM, White RA, Whiteford H, Wiersma ST, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Williams W, Wilson N, Woolf AD, Yip P, Zielinski JM, Lopez AD, Murray CJL, Ezzati M, AlMazroa MA, Memish ZA. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet 2012; 380:2224-60. [PMID: 23245609 PMCID: PMC4156511 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(12)61766-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7149] [Impact Index Per Article: 595.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA 98121, USA.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
20
|
Schulz M, Prospero JM, Baker AR, Dentener F, Ickes L, Liss PS, Mahowald NM, Nickovic S, García-Pando CP, Rodríguez S, Sarin M, Tegen I, Duce RA. Atmospheric transport and deposition of mineral dust to the ocean: implications for research needs. Environ Sci Technol 2012; 46:10390-10404. [PMID: 22994868 DOI: 10.1021/es300073u] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
This paper reviews our knowledge of the measurement and modeling of mineral dust emissions to the atmosphere, its transport and deposition to the ocean, the release of iron from the dust into seawater, and the possible impact of that nutrient on marine biogeochemistry and climate. Of particular concern is our poor understanding of the mechanisms and quantities of dust deposition as well as the extent of iron solubilization from the dust once it enters the ocean. Model estimates of dust deposition in remote oceanic regions vary by more than a factor of 10. The fraction of the iron in dust that is available for use by marine phytoplankton is still highly uncertain. There is an urgent need for a long-term marine atmospheric surface measurement network, spread across all oceans. Because the southern ocean is characterized by large areas with high nitrate but low chlorophyll surface concentrations, that region is particularly sensitive to the input of dust and iron. Data from this region would be valuable, particularly at sites downwind from known dust source areas in South America, Australia, and South Africa. Coordinated field experiments involving both atmospheric and marine measurements are recommended to address the complex and interlinked processes and role of dust/Fe fertilization on marine biogeochemistry and climate.
Collapse
|
21
|
Anderson HR, Butland BK, van Donkelaar A, Brauer M, Strachan DP, Clayton T, van Dingenen R, Amann M, Brunekreef B, Cohen A, Dentener F, Lai C, Lamsal LN, Martin RV, One IP. Satellite-based estimates of ambient air pollution and global variations in childhood asthma prevalence. Environ Health Perspect 2012; 120:1333-9. [PMID: 22548921 PMCID: PMC3440118 DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1104724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2011] [Accepted: 05/01/2012] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. OBJECTIVES Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 µm (PM₂.₅) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and modelled estimates of ozone. METHODS We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM₂.₅ and NO₂ at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1° × 1° to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001-2003). RESULTS For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM₂.₅ and NO₂ was -0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was -0.116 (95% CI: -0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM₂.₅ from Phase One to Phase Three was -0.139 (95% CI: -0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was -0.171 (95% CI: -0.275, -0.067). CONCLUSION In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution, we did not find evidence of a positive association between ambient air pollution and asthma prevalence as measured at the community level.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- H Ross Anderson
- MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health, King's College London, United Kingdom.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
22
|
Koffi B, Schulz M, Bréon FM, Griesfeller J, Winker D, Balkanski Y, Bauer S, Berntsen T, Chin M, Collins WD, Dentener F, Diehl T, Easter R, Ghan S, Ginoux P, Gong S, Horowitz LW, Iversen T, Kirkevåg A, Koch D, Krol M, Myhre G, Stier P, Takemura T. Application of the CALIOP layer product to evaluate the vertical distribution of aerosols estimated by global models: AeroCom phase I results. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 140] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
23
|
Brauer M, Amann M, Burnett RT, Cohen A, Dentener F, Ezzati M, Henderson SB, Krzyzanowski M, Martin RV, Van Dingenen R, van Donkelaar A, Thurston GD. Exposure assessment for estimation of the global burden of disease attributable to outdoor air pollution. Environ Sci Technol 2012; 46:652-60. [PMID: 22148428 PMCID: PMC4043337 DOI: 10.1021/es2025752] [Citation(s) in RCA: 347] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Ambient air pollution is associated with numerous adverse health impacts. Previous assessments of global attributable disease burden have been limited to urban areas or by coarse spatial resolution of concentration estimates. Recent developments in remote sensing, global chemical-transport models, and improvements in coverage of surface measurements facilitate virtually complete spatially resolved global air pollutant concentration estimates. We combined these data to generate global estimates of long-term average ambient concentrations of fine particles (PM(2.5)) and ozone at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for 1990 and 2005. In 2005, 89% of the world's population lived in areas where the World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m(3) PM(2.5) (annual average) was exceeded. Globally, 32% of the population lived in areas exceeding the WHO Level 1 Interim Target of 35 μg/m(3), driven by high proportions in East (76%) and South (26%) Asia. The highest seasonal ozone levels were found in North and Latin America, Europe, South and East Asia, and parts of Africa. Between 1990 and 2005 a 6% increase in global population-weighted PM(2.5) and a 1% decrease in global population-weighted ozone concentrations was apparent, highlighted by increased concentrations in East, South, and Southeast Asia and decreases in North America and Europe. Combined with spatially resolved population distributions, these estimates expand the evaluation of the global health burden associated with outdoor air pollution.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Michael Brauer
- School of Population and Public Health, The University of British Columbia, 2206 East Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T1Z3, Canada.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
24
|
Bleeker A, Hicks WK, Dentener F, Galloway J, Erisman JW. N deposition as a threat to the World's protected areas under the Convention on Biological Diversity. Environ Pollut 2011; 159:2280-8. [PMID: 21122958 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2010.10.036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2010] [Revised: 10/12/2010] [Accepted: 10/25/2010] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
This paper combines the world's protected areas (PAs) under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), common classification systems of ecosystem conservation status, and current knowledge on ecosystem responses to nitrogen (N) deposition to determine areas most at risk. The results show that 40% (approx. 11% of total area) of PAs currently receive >10 kg N/ha/yr with projections for 2030 indicating that this situation is not expected to change. Furthermore, 950 PAs are projected to receive >30 kg N/ha/yr by 2030 (approx. twice the 2000 number), of which 62 (approx. 11,300 km(2)) are also Biodiversity Hotspots and G200 ecoregions; with forest and grassland ecosystems in Asia particularly at risk. Many of these sites are known to be sensitive to N deposition effects, both in terms of biodiversity changes and ecosystem services they provide. Urgent assessment of high risk areas identified in this study is recommended to inform the conservation efforts of the CBD.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- A Bleeker
- Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, PO Box 1, 1755ZG Petten, The Netherlands.
| | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
25
|
Bergamaschi P, Krol M, Meirink JF, Dentener F, Segers A, van Aardenne J, Monni S, Vermeulen AT, Schmidt M, Ramonet M, Yver C, Meinhardt F, Nisbet EG, Fisher RE, O'Doherty S, Dlugokencky EJ. Inverse modeling of European CH4emissions 2001–2006. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014180] [Citation(s) in RCA: 106] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
26
|
Clarisse L, Shephard MW, Dentener F, Hurtmans D, Cady-Pereira K, Karagulian F, Van Damme M, Clerbaux C, Coheur PF. Satellite monitoring of ammonia: A case study of the San Joaquin Valley. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013291] [Citation(s) in RCA: 94] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
27
|
Butchart SHM, Walpole M, Collen B, van Strien A, Scharlemann JPW, Almond REA, Baillie JEM, Bomhard B, Brown C, Bruno J, Carpenter KE, Carr GM, Chanson J, Chenery AM, Csirke J, Davidson NC, Dentener F, Foster M, Galli A, Galloway JN, Genovesi P, Gregory RD, Hockings M, Kapos V, Lamarque JF, Leverington F, Loh J, McGeoch MA, McRae L, Minasyan A, Hernández Morcillo M, Oldfield TEE, Pauly D, Quader S, Revenga C, Sauer JR, Skolnik B, Spear D, Stanwell-Smith D, Stuart SN, Symes A, Tierney M, Tyrrell TD, Vié JC, Watson R. Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines. Science 2010; 328:1164-8. [PMID: 20430971 DOI: 10.1126/science.1187512] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1648] [Impact Index Per Article: 117.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species' population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Stuart H M Butchart
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
28
|
Bobbink R, Hicks K, Galloway J, Spranger T, Alkemade R, Ashmore M, Bustamante M, Cinderby S, Davidson E, Dentener F, Emmett B, Erisman JW, Fenn M, Gilliam F, Nordin A, Pardo L, De Vries W. Global assessment of nitrogen deposition effects on terrestrial plant diversity: a synthesis. Ecol Appl 2010; 20:30-59. [PMID: 20349829 DOI: 10.1890/08-1140.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 901] [Impact Index Per Article: 64.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is a recognized threat to plant diversity in temperate and northern parts of Europe and North America. This paper assesses evidence from field experiments for N deposition effects and thresholds for terrestrial plant diversity protection across a latitudinal range of main categories of ecosystems, from arctic and boreal systems to tropical forests. Current thinking on the mechanisms of N deposition effects on plant diversity, the global distribution of G200 ecoregions, and current and future (2030) estimates of atmospheric N-deposition rates are then used to identify the risks to plant diversity in all major ecosystem types now and in the future. This synthesis paper clearly shows that N accumulation is the main driver of changes to species composition across the whole range of different ecosystem types by driving the competitive interactions that lead to composition change and/or making conditions unfavorable for some species. Other effects such as direct toxicity of nitrogen gases and aerosols, long-term negative effects of increased ammonium and ammonia availability, soil-mediated effects of acidification, and secondary stress and disturbance are more ecosystem- and site-specific and often play a supporting role. N deposition effects in mediterranean ecosystems have now been identified, leading to a first estimate of an effect threshold. Importantly, ecosystems thought of as not N limited, such as tropical and subtropical systems, may be more vulnerable in the regeneration phase, in situations where heterogeneity in N availability is reduced by atmospheric N deposition, on sandy soils, or in montane areas. Critical loads are effect thresholds for N deposition, and the critical load concept has helped European governments make progress toward reducing N loads on sensitive ecosystems. More needs to be done in Europe and North America, especially for the more sensitive ecosystem types, including several ecosystems of high conservation importance. The results of this assessment show that the vulnerable regions outside Europe and North America which have not received enough attention are ecoregions in eastern and southern Asia (China, India), an important part of the mediterranean ecoregion (California, southern Europe), and in the coming decades several subtropical and tropical parts of Latin America and Africa. Reductions in plant diversity by increased atmospheric N deposition may be more widespread than first thought, and more targeted studies are required in low background areas, especially in the G200 ecoregions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- R Bobbink
- B-WARE Research Centre, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
29
|
Bergamaschi P, Frankenberg C, Meirink JF, Krol M, Villani MG, Houweling S, Dentener F, Dlugokencky EJ, Miller JB, Gatti LV, Engel A, Levin I. Inverse modeling of global and regional CH4emissions using SCIAMACHY satellite retrievals. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd012287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 247] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
30
|
Aardenne JV, Dentener F, Dingenen RV, Marmer E, Vignati E, Russ P, Szabo L. Global climate policy scenarios: The benefits and trade-offs for air pollution. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1088/1755-1307/6/28/282001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
|
31
|
Sutton MA, Erisman JW, Dentener F, Möller D. Ammonia in the environment: from ancient times to the present. Environ Pollut 2008; 156:583-604. [PMID: 18499318 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2008.03.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2007] [Revised: 03/10/2008] [Accepted: 03/20/2008] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Recent research on atmospheric ammonia has made good progress in quantifying sources/sinks and environmental impacts. This paper reviews the achievements and places them in their historical context. It considers the role of ammonia in the development of agricultural science and air chemistry, showing how these arose out of foundations in 18th century chemistry and medieval alchemy, and then identifies the original environmental sources from which the ancients obtained ammonia. Ammonia is revealed as a compound of key human interest through the centuries, with a central role played by sal ammoniac in alchemy and the emergence of modern science. The review highlights how recent environmental research has emphasized volatilization sources of ammonia. Conversely, the historical records emphasize the role of high-temperature sources, including dung burning, coal burning, naturally burning coal seams and volcanoes. Present estimates of ammonia emissions from these sources are based on few measurements, which should be a future priority.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mark A Sutton
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh Research Station, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, Scotland EH260QB, UK.
| | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
32
|
Abstract
Exceedance of steady-state critical loads for soil acidification is consistently found in southern China and parts of SE Asia, but there is no evidence of impacts outside of China. This study describes a methodology for calculating the time to effects for soils sensitive to acidic deposition in Asia under potential future sulfur (S), nitrogen (N), and calcium (Ca) emission scenarios. The calculations are matched to data availability in Asia to produce regional-scale maps that provide estimates of the time (y) it will take for soil base saturation to reach a critical limit of 20% in response to acidic inputs. The results show that sensitive soil types in areas of South, Southeast, and East Asia, including parts of southern China, Burma, Hainan, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Western Ghats of India, may acidify to a significant degree on a 0-50 y timescale, depending on individual site management and abiotic and biotic characteristics. To make a clearer assessment of risk, site-specific data are required for soil chemistry and deposition (especially base cation deposition); S and N retention in soils and ecosystems; and biomass harvesting and weathering rates from sites across Asia representative of different soil and vegetation types and management regimes. National and regional assessments of soils using the simple methods described in this paper can provide an appreciation of the time dimension of soil acidification-related impacts and should be useful in planning further studies and, possibly, implementing measures to reduce risks of acidification.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- W Kevin Hicks
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Biology, University of York, UK.
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
33
|
Duce RA, LaRoche J, Altieri K, Arrigo KR, Baker AR, Capone DG, Cornell S, Dentener F, Galloway J, Ganeshram RS, Geider RJ, Jickells T, Kuypers MM, Langlois R, Liss PS, Liu SM, Middelburg JJ, Moore CM, Nickovic S, Oschlies A, Pedersen T, Prospero J, Schlitzer R, Seitzinger S, Sorensen LL, Uematsu M, Ulloa O, Voss M, Ward B, Zamora L. Impacts of atmospheric anthropogenic nitrogen on the open ocean. Science 2008. [PMID: 18487184 DOI: 10.1126/science.ll50369] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Increasing quantities of atmospheric anthropogenic fixed nitrogen entering the open ocean could account for up to about a third of the ocean's external (nonrecycled) nitrogen supply and up to approximately 3% of the annual new marine biological production, approximately 0.3 petagram of carbon per year. This input could account for the production of up to approximately 1.6 teragrams of nitrous oxide (N2O) per year. Although approximately 10% of the ocean's drawdown of atmospheric anthropogenic carbon dioxide may result from this atmospheric nitrogen fertilization, leading to a decrease in radiative forcing, up to about two-thirds of this amount may be offset by the increase in N2O emissions. The effects of increasing atmospheric nitrogen deposition are expected to continue to grow in the future.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- R A Duce
- Departments of Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
34
|
Duce RA, LaRoche J, Altieri K, Arrigo KR, Baker AR, Capone DG, Cornell S, Dentener F, Galloway J, Ganeshram RS, Geider RJ, Jickells T, Kuypers MM, Langlois R, Liss PS, Liu SM, Middelburg JJ, Moore CM, Nickovic S, Oschlies A, Pedersen T, Prospero J, Schlitzer R, Seitzinger S, Sorensen LL, Uematsu M, Ulloa O, Voss M, Ward B, Zamora L. Impacts of Atmospheric Anthropogenic Nitrogen on the Open Ocean. Science 2008; 320:893-7. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1150369] [Citation(s) in RCA: 799] [Impact Index Per Article: 49.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
|
35
|
Churkina G, Trusilova K, Vetter M, Dentener F. Contributions of nitrogen deposition and forest regrowth to terrestrial carbon uptake. Carbon Balance Manag 2007; 2:5. [PMID: 17535432 PMCID: PMC1894630 DOI: 10.1186/1750-0680-2-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2007] [Accepted: 05/29/2007] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The amount of reactive nitrogen deposited on land has doubled globally and become at least five-times higher in Europe, Eastern United States, and South East Asia since 1860 mostly because of increases in fertilizer production and fossil fuel burning. Because vegetation growth in the Northern Hemisphere is typically nitrogen-limited, increased nitrogen deposition could have an attenuating effect on rising atmospheric CO2 by stimulating the vegetation productivity and accumulation of carbon in biomass. RESULTS This study shows that elevated nitrogen deposition would not significantly enhance land carbon uptake unless we consider its effects on re-growing forests. Our results suggest that nitrogen enriched land ecosystems sequestered 0.62-2.33 PgC in the 1980s and 0.75-2.21 PgC in the 1990s depending on the proportion and age of re-growing forests. During these two decades land ecosystems are estimated to have absorbed 13-41% of carbon emitted by fossil fuel burning. CONCLUSION Although land ecosystems and especially forests with lifted nitrogen limitations have the potential to decelerate the rise of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, the effect is only significant over a limited period of time. The carbon uptake associated with forest re-growth and amplified by high nitrogen deposition will decrease as soon as the forests reach maturity. Therefore, assessments relying on carbon stored on land from enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition to balance fossil fuel emissions may be inaccurate.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Galina Churkina
- Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöllstr. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Kristina Trusilova
- Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöllstr. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Mona Vetter
- Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöllstr. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Frank Dentener
- European Commission, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
36
|
Bergamaschi P, Frankenberg C, Meirink JF, Krol M, Dentener F, Wagner T, Platt U, Kaplan JO, Körner S, Heimann M, Dlugokencky EJ, Goede A. Satellite chartography of atmospheric methane from SCIAMACHY on board ENVISAT: 2. Evaluation based on inverse model simulations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd007268] [Citation(s) in RCA: 232] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
|
37
|
Dentener F, Stevenson D, Ellingsen K, Van Noije T, Schultz M, Amann M, Atherton C, Bell N, Bergmann D, Bey I, Bouwman L, Butler T, Cofala J, Collins B, Drevet J, Doherty R, Eickhout B, Eskes H, Fiore A, Gauss M, Hauglustaine D, Horowitz L, Isaksen ISA, Josse B, Lawrence M, Krol M, Lamarque JF, Montanaro V, Müller JF, Peuch VH, Pitari G, Pyle J, Rast S, Rodriguez I, Sanderson M, Savage NH, Shindell D, Strahan S, Szopa S, Sudo K, Van Dingenen R, Wild O, Zeng G. The global atmospheric environment for the next generation. Environ Sci Technol 2006; 40:3586-94. [PMID: 16786698 DOI: 10.1021/es0523845] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, while the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition, and NO2 satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations and high deposition of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 +/- 1.2 ppb (CLE) and 4.3 +/- 2.2 ppb (A2), using the ensemble mean model results and associated +/-1 sigma standard deviations. Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone, by -2.3 +/- 1.1 ppb. Climate change is expected to modify surface ozone by -0.8 +/- 0.6 ppb, with larger decreases over sea than over land. Radiative forcing by ozone increases by 63 +/- 15 and 155 +/- 37 mW m(-2) for CLE and A2, respectively, and decreases by -45 +/- 15 mW m(-2) for MFR. We compute that at present 10.1% of the global natural terrestrial ecosystems are exposed to nitrogen deposition above a critical load of 1 g N m(-2) yr(-1). These percentages increase by 2030 to 15.8% (CLE), 10.5% (MFR), and 25% (A2). This study shows the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation and the major benefits of going further. Nonattainment of these air quality policy objectives, such as expressed by the SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade the global atmospheric environment.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- F Dentener
- Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, via E. Fermi 1, 1-21020, Ispra, Italy.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
38
|
Pozzoli L, Bolzacchini E, Van Dingenen R, Hjiorth J, Dentener F, Perrone G, Rindone B, Librando V. A boxmodel development to study the relationships between the photo-oxidants and the particles formation in the troposphere. Ann Chim 2003; 93:447-56. [PMID: 12817645] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/03/2023]
Abstract
The model BAGS (Boxmodel for Aerosol and Gasphase Simulations) has been developed. It is composed of two major modules: the first one describes the system of the chemical reactions in the gaseous phase, the second one calculates the aerosol chemical composition and the dimensional distribution of the particles. The boxmodel has been developed with the introduction of new chemical and physical processes, not previously included, in particular the formation of Secondary Organic Aerosol. The other implemented processes are a module for the dynamic of the particle population, nucleation, coagulation and dry deposition. The last phase of the work has been a check of the BAGS capabilities by a series of tests, that have permitted to compare it with other models (MAPS and MADM). The tests in particular have concerned the aerosol water content prediction, the photochemistry, the condensation of the inorganic compounds and the formation of Secondary Organic Aerosol.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Luca Pozzoli
- University Bicocca of Milan, Department of Environmental Sciences, Piazza della Scienza 1, 20126 Milano, Italy.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
39
|
|
40
|
Abstract
The acid-base status of precipitation is a result of a balance between acidifying compounds--mainly oxides of sulfur and nitrogen--and alkaline compounds--mainly ammonia and alkaline material in windblown soil dust. We use current models of the global atmospheric distribution of such compounds to estimate the geographical distribution of pH in precipitation and of the rate of deposition of hydrogen ion or bicarbonate ion. The lowest pH values--mainly due to high concentration of sulfuric acid--occur in eastern parts of North America, Europe, and China. A comparison with observed pH values shows fair agreement in most parts of the world. However, in some areas, e.g. western North America, southwestern Europe, and northern China the estimated pH is too low, indicating that we have underestimated the deposition flux of alkaline material, probably mainly CaCO3. Our neglect of organic acids may have contributed to an overestimate of pH especially in certain tropical areas. To illustrate the potential effects of acidifying deposition on nitrogen saturated terrestrial ecosystems we also calculate the deposition of "potential acidity" that takes into account the microbial transformation of ammonium to nitrate in such ecosystems, resulting in the release of hydrogen ion. Compared to the deposition of acidity, with its maxima over Europe, eastern North America, and southern China, the deposition of potential acidity exhibits an additional maximum in India and Bangladesh and in several other smaller hot spots where the cycling of ammonia is enhanced by a dense cattle population. To the extent that soils in these areas of high potential acidity deposition actually become nitrogen saturated a depletion of base cations and other changes in soil chemistry and biology should be expected. Potential problem areas forfuture soil acidification include several regions with sensitive soils in southern, southeastern, and eastern Asia as well as in central parts of South America.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Henning Rodhe
- Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Sweden.
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
41
|
Seitzinger SP, Kroeze C, Bouwman AF, Caraco N, Dentener F, Styles RV. Global patterns of dissolved inorganic and particulate nitrogen inputs to coastal systems: Recent conditions and future projections. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2002. [DOI: 10.1007/bf02804897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 147] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
|
42
|
Jeuken A, Veefkind JP, Dentener F, Metzger S, Gonzalez CR. Simulation of the aerosol optical depth over Europe for August 1997 and a comparison with observations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jd900063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
43
|
Guelle W, Schulz M, Balkanski Y, Dentener F. Influence of the source formulation on modeling the atmospheric global distribution of sea salt aerosol. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jd900249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 147] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
44
|
Peters W, Krol M, Dentener F, Lelieveld J. Identification of an El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal in a multiyear global simulation of tropospheric ozone. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1029/2000jd900658] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
|
45
|
Houweling S, Dentener F, Lelieveld J. Simulation of preindustrial atmospheric methane to constrain the global source strength of natural wetlands. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2000. [DOI: 10.1029/2000jd900193] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
|
46
|
Marufu L, Dentener F, Lelieveld J, Andreae MO, Helas G. Photochemistry of the African troposphere: Influence of biomass-burning emissions. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2000. [DOI: 10.1029/1999jd901055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
47
|
de Reus M, Dentener F, Thomas A, Borrmann S, Ström J, Lelieveld J. Airborne observations of dust aerosol over the North Atlantic Ocean during ACE 2: Indications for heterogeneous ozone destruction. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2000. [DOI: 10.1029/2000jd900164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 101] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
48
|
van den Berg A, Dentener F, Lelieveld J. Modeling the chemistry of the marine boundary layer: Sulphate formation and the role of sea-salt aerosol particles. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2000. [DOI: 10.1029/1999jd901073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
49
|
Houweling S, Dentener F, Lelieveld J, Walter B, Dlugokencky E. The modeling of tropospheric methane: How well can point measurements be reproduced by a global model? ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2000. [DOI: 10.1029/1999jd901149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
|
50
|
Houweling S, Kaminski T, Dentener F, Lelieveld J, Heimann M. Inverse modeling of methane sources and sinks using the adjoint of a global transport model. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1999. [DOI: 10.1029/1999jd900428] [Citation(s) in RCA: 244] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|