Antibodies against high-risk human papillomavirus proteins as markers for noncervical HPV-related cancers in a Black South African population, according to HIV status

Human papillomavirus (HPV) proteins may elicit antibody responses in the process toward HPV-related malignancy. However, HPV seroepidemiology in noncervical HPV-related cancers remains poorly understood, particularly in populations with a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Using a glutathione S-transferase-based multiplex serology assay, antibodies against E6, E7 and L1 proteins of HPV16 and HPV18 were measured in sera of 535 cases of noncervical HPV-related cancers (anal (n = 104), vulval (n = 211), vaginal (n = 49), penile (n = 37) and oropharyngeal (n = 134)) and 6651 non-infection-related cancer controls, from the Johannesburg Cancer Study that recruited Black South African with newly diagnosed cancer between 1995 and 2016. Logistic and Poisson regression models were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) in cases versus controls. HPV16 E6 was more strongly associated with noncervical HPV-related cancers than HPV16 L1 or E7, or HPV18 proteins: anal (females (HPV16 E6 aOR = 11.50;95%CI:6.0-22.2), males (aOR = 10.12;95%CI:4.9-20.8), vulval (aOR = 11.69;95%CI:7.9-17.2), vaginal (aOR = 10.26;95%CI:5.0-21), penile (aOR = 18.95;95%CI:8.9-40), and oropharyngeal (females (aOR = 8.95;95%CI:2.9-27.5), males (aOR = 3.49;95%CI:1.8-7.0)) cancers. HPV16-E6 seropositivity ranged from 24.0% to 35.1% in anal, vulval, vaginal and penile cancer but was significantly lower (11.2%) in oropharyngeal cancer. After adjustment for HIV, prevalence of which increased from 22.2% in 1995-2005 to 54.1% in 2010-2016, HPV16 E6 seropositivity increased by period of diagnosis (aPR for 2010-2016 vs. 1995-2006 = 1.84;95%CI:1.1-3.0). Assuming HPV16 E6 seroprevalence reflects HPV attributable fraction, the proportion of certain noncervical-HPV-related cancers caused by HPV is increasing over time in South Africa. This is expected to be driven by the increasing influence of HIV.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Genome-wide association study of esophageal squamous cell cancer identifies shared and distinct risk variants in African and Chinese populations

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa and has a very poor prognosis. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of ESCC in predominantly East Asian populations indicate a substantial genetic contribution to its etiology, but no genome-wide studies have been done in populations of African ancestry. Here, we report a GWAS in 1,686 African individuals with ESCC and 3,217 population-matched control individuals to investigate its genetic etiology. We identified a genome-wide-significant risk locus on chromosome 9 upstream of FAM120A (rs12379660, p = 4.58 × 10-8, odds ratio = 1.28, 95% confidence interval = 1.22-1.34), as well as a potential African-specific risk locus on chromosome 2 (rs142741123, p = 5.49 × 10-8) within MYO1B. FAM120A is a component of oxidative stress-induced survival signals, and the associated variants at the FAM120A locus co-localized with highly significant cis-eQTLs in FAM120AOS in both esophageal mucosa and esophageal muscularis tissue. A trans-ethnic meta-analysis was then performed with the African ESCC study and a Chinese ESCC study in a combined total of 3,699 ESCC-affected individuals and 5,918 control individuals, which identified three genome-wide-significant loci on chromosome 9 at FAM120A (rs12379660, pmeta = 9.36 × 10-10), chromosome 10 at PLCE1 (rs7099485, pmeta = 1.48 × 10-8), and chromosome 22 at CHEK2 (rs1033667, pmeta = 1.47 × 10-9). This indicates the existence of both shared and distinct genetic risk loci for ESCC in African and Asian populations. Our GWAS of ESCC conducted in a population of African ancestry indicates a substantial genetic contribution to ESCC risk in Africa.

Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpesvirus, HIV-1 and Kaposi sarcoma risk in black South Africans diagnosed with cancer during antiretroviral treatment rollout

Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) causes Kaposi sarcoma (KS). The risk of KS is amplified in HIV-immunosuppressed individuals and antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces KS incidence. Reliable data on the relationship between these factors are lacking in Africa. We used questionnaires and serum from 7886 black South Africans (18-74 years) with incident cancer, recruited between 1995 and 2016. ART rollout started in 2004. We measured associations between KS, HIV-1 and KSHV before and after ART rollout. We measured seropositivity to HIV-1, KSHV latency-associated nuclear antigen (LANA) and glycoprotein (K8.1) and calculated case-control-adjusted odds ratios (ORadj ) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) in relation to KS and KSHV infection, before (1995-2004), early (2005-2009) and late (2010-2016) ART rollout periods. KSHV seropositivity among 1237 KS cases was 98%. Among 6649 controls, KSHV seropositivity was higher in males (ORadj  = 1.4 [95%CI 1.23-1.52]), in persons with HIV, (ORadj  = 4.2 [95%CI 3.74-4.73]) and lower in high school leavers (ORadj  = 0.7 [95%CI 0.59-0.83]). KSHV seropositivity declined over the three ART rollout periods (37%, 28% and 28%, Ptrend  < .001) coinciding with increases in high school leavers over the same periods (46%, 58% and 67%, Ptrend  < .001). HIV-1 seroprevalence increased from 10% in the pre-ART period to 22% in the late ART period (Ptrend  < .001). Compared to HIV-1 and KSHV seronegatives, KSHV seropositives yielded an OR for KS of 26 (95%CI 11-62) in HIV-1 seronegative participants and an OR of 2501 (95%CI 1083-5776) in HIV-1 seropositive participants. HIV-1 increases the risk of KS in those infected with KSHV by 100-fold. Declines in KSHV seroprevalence coincide with ART rollout and with improvements in educational standards and general hygiene.

Thirteen cancers associated with HIV infection in a Black South African cancer patient population (1995-2016)

South Africa's HIV epidemic has evolved over time in terms of numbers of people living with HIV, access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) and age. These changes have profoundly influenced local cancer patterns. The Johannesburg Cancer Study has, over a period of 22 years (1995-2016), recruited over 20 000 incident black cancer patients who consented to provide answers to a questionnaire and blood samples (serum, DNA). This has presented a unique opportunity to examine the evolving association of HIV with cancer in Africa. We used logistic regression models to explore case-control associations between specific cancers and HIV, using participants with non-infection related cancers as controls. Using data of 20 835 cancer patients with confirmed HIV status, we found the following cancers to be associated with HIV: Kaposi's sarcoma (ORadj ; 95%CI): (99.1;72.6-135.1), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (11.3;9.3-13.6), cervical cancer (2.7;2.4-3.0), Hodgkin lymphoma (3.1;2.4-4.2), cancer of the eye/conjunctiva (18.7;10.1-34.7), anogenital cancers (anus [2.1;1.4-3.2], penis [5.4;2.7-10.5], vulva [4.8;3.5-6.4], vagina [5.5;3.0-10.2]), oropharyngeal cancer (1.6;1.3-1.9), squamous cell carcinoma of the skin (3.5;2.4-4.9), melanoma (2.0;1.2-3.5) and cancer of the larynx (1.7;1.3-2.4). Kaposi's sarcoma odds ratios increased from the pre-ART (1995-2004) to the early ART (2005-2009) period but declined in the late ART (2010-2016) period. Odds ratios for cancers of the eye/conjunctiva, cervix, penis and vulva continued to increase in recent ART periods. Our study confirms the spectrum of HIV-associated cancers found in other African settings. The odds ratios of conjunctival and HPV-related cancers continue to rise in the ART era as the HIV positive population ages.

Usefulness of high-risk HPV early oncoprotein (E6 and E7) serological markers in the detection of cervical cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

We reviewed the literature on the importance of selected anti-high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) antibodies (namely, 16/18 and early oncoproteins E6 and E7) as potential serological markers for early detection of individuals at high risk of cervical cancer. We searched for studies in PubMed and Embase databases published from 2010 to 2020 on antibodies against HR-HPV E6 and E7 early proteins and cervical cancer. Pooled sensitivity and specificity for HPV16 and HPV18 antibodies were calculated using a bivariate hierarchical random-effects model. A total of 69 articles were identified; we included three studies with 1550 participants. For the three HPV16/18 E6 and E7 antibody tests, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-based assays had a sensitivity of 18% for detecting CIN2+ (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15-21) and a specificity of 96% (95% CI: 92-98), for slot-blot, sensitivity was 28.9% (95% CI: 23.3-35.1) and specificity was 72% (95% CI: 66.6-77.0) for detecting CIN2+, and for multiplex HPV serology assay based on a glutathione S-transferase, sensitivity was 16% (95% CI: 8.45-28.6) and specificity was 98% (95% CI: 97-99) for detecting invasive cervical cancer. HR-HPV16/18 E6 and E7 serological markers showed high specificity, but sensitivity was suboptimal for the detection of cervical cancer in either population screening settings or as point-of-care screening tests.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Country profile: Australia, New South Wales. From validation to implementation: Progressing tobacco smoking cessation among people with cancer and beyond via relevant authorities

This paper delineates how a program of tobacco smoking cessation after a cancer diagnosis was achieved by engagement of multiple stakeholders, government, and non-government authorities in one jurisdiction in Australia, New South Wales. While it had become increasingly obvious that smoking cessation imparts benefits akin to other known treatment modalities, knowledge of this generalisation is without benefit unless this information is delivered in a trusted context and means to quit are made available. Against a backdrop of little enthusiasm among clinicians, the Cancer Institute NSW, charged with implementing tobacco control strategies, decided to focus its 2017 annual colloquium on the topic. While the evidence was unequivocal, better clarity was needed that this was indeed a clinical responsibility, and on the resources needed. The Clinical Oncology Society of Australia, (COSA) a non-governmental peak national body representing cancer care professionals, addressed this challenge. The society's governing body resolved to develop a position statement indicating how smoking cessation might be integrated within hospital-based cancer care. The position statement, endorsed by nineteen other cancer and non-cancer organisations, provided reassurance to the Institute to improve record capture of hospital smoking information; upskill all clinical staff and develop an automatic "patient opt out" referral to existing resources such as the Quitline. Early pilot work shows that people newly diagnosed with cancer who smoke and who were advised at that time to quit increased from 55% in 2016 to 72% in 2019.

Lifestyle factors associated with sex differences in Kaposi sarcoma incidence among adult black South Africans: A case-control study

Kaposi Sarcoma (KS) is endemic in several countries in Southern and Eastern Africa, relatively rare worldwide but a leading cancer among people living with HIV. KS has always been more common in adult males than females. We assessed the prevalence of known cancer modifying factors (parity, hormonal contraceptive use in females, sex-partners, smoking and alcohol consumption in both sexes), and their relationship to KS, and whether any of these could account for the unequal KS sex ratios. We calculated logistic regression case-control adjusted odds ratios (OR_adj), and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI), between KS and each of the modifying factors, using appropriate comparison controls. Controls were cancer types that had no known relationship to exposures of interest (infection or alcohol or smoking or contraceptive use). The majority of the 1275 KS cases were HIV positive (97%), vs. 15.7% in 10,309 controls. The risk of KS among those with HIV was high in males (OR_adj=116.70;95%CI=71.35-190.88) and females (OR_adj=93.91;95%CI=54.22-162.40). Among controls, the prevalence of smoking and alcohol consumption was five and three times higher in males vs. females. We found a positive association between KS and heavy vs. non-drinking (OR_adj=1.31;95%CI=1.03-1.67), and in current heavy vs. never smokers (OR_adj=1.82;95%CI=1.07-3.10). These associations remained positive for alcohol consumption (but with wider CIs) after stratification by sex, and restriction to HIV positive participants. We found no evidence of interactions of smoking and alcohol by sex. Smoking and alcohol consumption may provide a possible explanation for the KS sex differences, given both exposures are more common in men, but confounding and bias cannot be fully ruled out. The role smoking and alcohol play in relation to viral loads of HIV/KSHV, differences in immunological responses or other genetic differences between males and females warrant further studies.

HPV types 16/18 L1 E6 and E7 proteins seropositivity and cervical cancer risk in HIV-positive and HIV-negative black South African women

Background

In populations with high rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-coinfection, the nature of the relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV)-16 and -18 (L1, E6 and E7) antibodies and cervical cancer is still uncertain. We measured the association between seropositivity to HPV (L1, E6 and E7) proteins and cervical cancer among black South African women with and without HIV co-infection.

Methods

We used questionnaire data and serum collected from consecutively recruited patients with a newly diagnosed cancer from the Johannesburg Cancer Study from 1346 cervical cancer cases and 2532 controls (diagnosed with other non-infection related cancers). Seropositivity to HPV proteins was measured using a multiplex serological assay based on recombinant glutathione S-transferase (GST) fusion proteins. We measured associations between their presence and cervical cancer using unconditional logistic regression models and evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of these HPV biomarkers.

Results

Among controls, HIV-negative women from rural areas compared to urban had significantly higher HPV seroprevalence, HPV16 E7 (8.6% vs 3.7%) and HPV18 E7 (7.9% vs 2.0%). HPV16 E6 and E7 antibodies were positively associated with cervical cancer in HIV-positive (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 33; 95% CI 10–107) and HIV-negative women (AOR = 97; 95% CI 46–203). In HIV-positive women, HPV E6/E7 antibodies had low sensitivity (43.0%) and high specificity (90.6%) for cervical cancer detection. In HIV-negative women, HPV E6/E7 antibodies sensitivity was 70.6% and specificity was 89.7%.

Conclusions

Our data show that HPV (L1, especially E6 and E7) antibody positivity is associated with cervical cancer in both HIV-positive and HIV-negative women. Nonetheless, being HIV-positive plays an important role in the development of cervical cancer.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13027-022-00418-2.

Cutaneous beta HPVs, sun exposure and risk of squamous and basal cell skin cancers in Australia

BACKGROUND

Sun exposure causes cutaneous squamous (SCC) and basal cell (BCC) carcinomas. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection might cause SCC.

METHODS

We examined associations of beta and gamma HPV infection in skin-swab DNA and serum antibodies with skin cancer risk, and modification of the carcinogenic effects of sun exposure by them, in case-control studies of 385 SCC cases, 832 BCC cases and 1100 controls nested in an Australian prospective cohort study (enrolled 2006-2009).

RESULTS

Presence of beta-1 and beta-3 HPV DNA appeared to increase risks for SCC and BCC by 30%-40% (P adjusted <0.01). BCC was also associated with genus beta DNA, OR=1.48; 95%CI 1.10-2.00 (P adjusted <0.01). Associations were strengthened with each additional positive beta HPV DNA type: SCC (OR=1.07; 95%CI 1.02-1.12) and BCC (OR=1.06; 95%CI 1.03-1.10), P trend <0.01. Positivity to genus beta or gamma in serology, and genus gamma in DNA, was not associated with either cancer. There was little evidence that any beta HPV type was more strongly associated than others with either cancer. A weaker association of sun-exposure with SCC and BCC in the presence of beta-3 HPVs than in their absence suggests that beta-3 HPVs modify sun exposure's effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Our substantive findings are at the level of genus beta HPV. Like SCC, BCC risk may increase with increasing numbers of beta HPV types on skin.

IMPACT

The consistency in our findings that HPV infection may moderate the effects of sun exposure, the main environmental cause of SCC and BCC, merits further investigation.

Ranking lifestyle risk factors for cervical cancer among Black women: A case-control study from Johannesburg, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Aside from human papillomavirus (HPV), the role of other risk factors in cervical cancer such as age, education, parity, sexual partners, smoking and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have been described but never ranked in order of priority. We evaluated the contribution of several known lifestyle co-risk factors for cervical cancer among black South African women.

METHODS

We used participant data from the Johannesburg Cancer Study, a case-control study of women recruited mainly at Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital between 1995 and 2016. A total of 3,450 women in the study had invasive cervical cancers, 95% of which were squamous cell carcinoma. Controls were 5,709 women with cancers unrelated to exposures of interest. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (ORadj) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We ranked these risk factors by their population attributable fractions (PAF), which take the local prevalence of exposure among the cases and risk into account.

RESULTS

Cervical cancer in decreasing order of priority was associated with (1) being HIV positive (ORadj = 2.83, 95% CI = 2.53-3.14, PAF = 17.6%), (2) lower educational attainment (ORadj = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.44-1.77, PAF = 16.2%), (3) higher parity (3+ children vs 2-1 children (ORadj = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.07-1.46, PAF = 12.6%), (4) hormonal contraceptive use (ORadj = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.24-1.77, PAF = 8.9%), (5) heavy alcohol consumption (ORadj = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.15-1.81, PAF = 5.6%), (6) current smoking (ORadj = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.41-1.91, PAF = 5.1%), and (7) rural residence (ORadj = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.44-1.77, PAF = 4.4%).

CONCLUNSION

This rank order of risks could be used to target educational messaging and appropriate interventions for cervical cancer prevention in South African women.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Socioeconomic disparities in the management of coronary heart disease in 438 general practices in Australia

BACKGROUND

This population-based cross-stional and panel study investigated disparities in the management of coronary heart disease (CHD) by level of socioeconomic status.

METHODS

CHD patients (aged ≥18 years), treated in 438 general practices in Australia, with ≥3 recent encounters with their general practitioners, with last encounter being during 2016-2018, were included. Secondary prevention prescriptions and number of treatment targets achieved were each modelled using a Poisson regression adjusting for demographics, socioeconomic indicators, remoteness of patient's residence, comorbidities, lifetime follow-up, number of patient-general practitioner encounters and cluster effect within the general practices. The latter model was constructed using the Generalised Estimating Equations approach. Sensitivity analysis was run by comorbidity.

RESULTS

Of 137,408 patients (47% women), approximately 48% were prescribed ≥3 secondary prevention medications. However, only 44% were screened for CHD-associated risk factors. Of the latter, 45% achieved ≥5 treatment targets. Compared with patients from the highest socioeconomic status fifth, those from the lowest socioeconomic status fifth were 8% more likely to be prescribed more medications for secondary prevention (incidence rate ratio (95% confidence interval): 1.08 (1.04-1.12)) but 4% less likely to achieve treatment targets (incidence rate ratio: 0.96 (0.95-0.98)). These disparities were also observed when stratified by comorbidities.

CONCLUSION

Despite being more likely to be prescribed medications for secondary prevention, those who are most socioeconomically disadvantaged are less likely to achieve treatment targets. It remains to be determined whether barriers such as low adherence to treatment, failure to fill prescriptions, low income, low level of education or other barriers may explain these findings.

The methodology for assessing smoking-attributed mortality based on All Causes of Death Surveillance in Tianjin, China, 2010-2015

INTRODUCTION

The All Causes of Death Surveillance (ACDS) system was used to measure smoking-attributed mortality by inserting questions on smoking on death certificates. Smoking status information of the deceased has been routinely collected in death certificates since 2010. We describe a death registry-based case-control study using smoking and cause-of-death data for the period 2010-15.

METHODS

From 2010, three questions about the smoking status of the deceased were inserted in a revised death certificate: 1) Smoking status (current smoker, quit smoking, never smoker); 2) Number of cigarettes per day smoked; and 3) Number of years of smoking. A data-accuracy survey of 1788 telephone interviews of the family of the deceased was also conducted. Smoking habits (current/ex-smoker vs non-smoker) were compared in study cases (persons who died of lung cancer and other diseases known to be caused by smoking) and the controls (never smokers). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to estimate relative risks, RR (odds ratios) for smoking-attributed mortality, for lung cancer and all causes of death related to smoking, adjusted for 5-year interval age groups, education, marital status, and year of death.

RESULTS

During the study period (2010-15), the annual crude death reporting rates ranged from 6.5‰ to 7.0‰. The reporting rates of smoking status, smoking history and the number of cigarettes smoked daily were 95.5%, 98.6% and 98.6%, respectively. Compared to never smokers, the RR of ever smoking in males was 1.38 (95% CI: 1.33-1.43) for all causes of smoking-related deaths and 3.07 (95% CI: 2.91-3.24) for lung cancer, while in females the values were 1.46 (95% CI: 1.39-1.54) for all causes of smoking-related deaths and 4.07 (95% CI: 3.81-4.35) for lung cancer. The results in Tianjin are in accord with published results from previous studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Levels and trends in smoking attributed mortality can be measured at low cost by using the stable, complete and effective ACDS system in Tianjin.

Johannesburg Cancer Study (JCS): contribution to knowledge and opportunities arising from 20 years of data collection in an African setting

The Johannesburg Cancer Study (JCS) aims were to examine whether cancer risk factors identified in Western countries applied to black patients in Johannesburg, South Africa and to understand the impact of HIV on cancer risk, with a view to identifying previously unrecognised HIV associated cancers. A total of 24 971 black patients with an incident histologically proven (>95%) cancer of any type were enrolled between 1995-2016. Response rates were >90%. Patients provided informed consent, lifestyle and demographic information using a structured questionnaire; 19 351 provided a serum sample and 18 972 a whole blood sample for genomic analyses. This is currently the largest cancer epidemiological biobank in Africa. JCS uses a cancer case-control method; controls being cancer types unrelated to exposures of interest. Published results show the importance of HIV in several cancers known to be infection associated e.g. Kaposi sarcoma (OR = 1683; CI = 595-5194) in those with high Kaposi-sarcoma-associated-herpesvirus titres; no effect of HIV on lung or liver cancer-in the latter showing a strong association with HBVDNA, sAg and c positivity (OR = 47; CI = 21-104). Comparable data to higher-income country studies include lung cancer ORs in relation to smoking (15+g tobacco/day) (OR_Males = 37; CI = 21-67, OR_Females = 18.5; CI = 8-45) and associations between alcohol and oesophageal cancer in smokers (OR_M&F = 4.4; CI = 3-6). Relationship between hormonal contraception declined to null 10 or more years after stopping for breast (OR = 1.1; CI = 0.9-1.4) and cervical cancer (OR = 1.0;CI = 0.8-1.2), and protective effects shown, five or more years after stopping for ovarian (OR = 0.6; CI = 0.4-1) and endometrial cancer (OR = 0.4; CI = 0.2-0.9). Preferential access is based on data requests promoting data pooling, equal collaborative opportunities and enhancement of research capacity in South Africa. The JCS is a practical and valid design in otherwise logistically difficult settings.

Smoking counts: experience of implementing questions on smoking on official death certification systems

We describe our experience in several settings, following a suggestion in 1983 to add questions on the smoking status of the deceased on the UK death certificate as an effective way to monitor the evolution of the smoking epidemic. In South Africa in 1997 and in Tianjin Municipality, China, in 2010, questions about the smoking habits of the deceased were inserted on the official death certificates. In both places a system now exists to routinely collect information on smoking status in relation to causes of death. Results from two million South African and 300 000 Chinese deceased individuals have been reported, and the sample size in both places continues to grow. An unsuccessful attempt was made in 2008 to insert smoking questions on the Australian death notification forms but comments and concerns from the registrars of births, marriages and deaths have international applicability. In both China and South Africa, inserting questions on smoking on the death notification forms was not a trivial task-in each it required, as a minimum, significant commitment from several government agencies. Benefits, however, include a better local understanding of the smoking epidemic and allowing for planning and monitoring of tobacco control programmes. Documenting the varied experiences of collecting information on smoking on death notification forms is useful to those wishing to introduce such questions in their own settings. This is pertinent especially at a time when vital registration systems are being improved, with an aim to monitoring sustainable development goals.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance

Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.

Objective

To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.

Evidence Review

We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

Findings

In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).

Conclusions and Relevance

The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

High Ambient Solar UV Correlates with Greater Beta HPV Seropositivity in New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is highly prevalent worldwide and may have a role, with sun exposure, in causing cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma. Little is known about the relationship of UV exposure and seroprevalence of cutaneous HPVs in the general population.

METHODS

Using multiplex serology, we estimated the seroprevalence of 23 beta and 7 gamma HPVs and 7 other antigens (mu HPV1, HPV63, nu HPV41, alpha HPV16; polyomaviruses HPyV7 and MCV; p53) in a population-based sample of 1,161 Australian 45 and Up Study participants with valid data from blood specimens collected from 2010 to 2012. We calculated prevalence ratios (PR) for the association of each antigen with residential ambient solar UV and other UV-related variables.

RESULTS

Seropositivity for at least one beta or gamma HPV was high at 88% (beta HPVs 74%, gamma HPVs 70%), and less in women than men [e.g., PR beta-2 HPV38 = 0.70; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.56-0.87; any gamma = 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.97]. A high ambient UV level in the 10 years before study enrollment was associated with elevated seroprevalence for genus beta (PRtertile3vs1 any beta = 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07-1.28), and beta-1 to beta-3 species, but not for gamma HPVs. Other UV-related measures had less or no evidence of an association.

CONCLUSIONS

Seroprevalence of cutaneous beta HPVs is higher with higher ambient UV exposure in the past 10 years.

IMPACT

The observed association between ambient UV in the past 10 years and cutaneous HPVs supports further study of the possible joint role of solar UV and HPV in causing skin cancer.

HLA and KIR Associations of Cervical Neoplasia

Background

Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women, and we recently reported human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles showing strong associations with cervical neoplasia risk and protection. HLA ligands are recognized by killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) expressed on a range of immune cell subsets, governing their proinflammatory activity. We hypothesized that the inheritance of particular HLA-KIR combinations would increase cervical neoplasia risk.

Methods

Here, we used HLA and KIR dosages imputed from single-nucleotide polymorphism genotype data from 2143 cervical neoplasia cases and 13858 healthy controls of European decent.

Results

The following 4 novel HLA alleles were identified in association with cervical neoplasia, owing to their linkage disequilibrium with known cervical neoplasia-associated HLA-DRB1 alleles: HLA-DRB3*9901 (odds ratio [OR], 1.24; P = 2.49 × 10-9), HLA-DRB5*0101 (OR, 1.29; P = 2.26 × 10-8), HLA-DRB5*9901 (OR, 0.77; P = 1.90 × 10-9), and HLA-DRB3*0301 (OR, 0.63; P = 4.06 × 10-5). We also found that homozygosity of HLA-C1 group alleles is a protective factor for human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16)-related cervical neoplasia (C1/C1; OR, 0.79; P = .005). This protective association was restricted to carriers of either KIR2DL2 (OR, 0.67; P = .00045) or KIR2DS2 (OR, 0.69; P = .0006).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that HLA-C1 group alleles play a role in protecting against HPV16-related cervical neoplasia, mainly through a KIR-mediated mechanism.

Sex disparities in the management of coronary heart disease in general practices in Australia

Objectives

To determine whether sex differences exist in the management of patients with a history of coronary heart disease (CHD) in primary care.

Methods

General practice records of patients aged ≥18 years with a history of CHD in a large general practice dataset in Australia, MedicineInsight, were analysed. Sex-specific, age-standardised proportions of patients prescribed with recommended medications; assessed for cardiovascular risk factors; and achieved treatment targets according to the General Practice Management Plan were reported.

Results

Records of 130 926 patients (47% women) from 438 sites were available from 2014 to 2018. Women were less likely to be prescribed with recommended medications (prescribed ≥3 medications: women 44%, men 61%; p<0.001). Younger patients, especially women aged <45 years, were substantially underprescribed (aged <45 years prescribed ≥3 medications: women 2%, men 8%; p<0.001). Lower proportions of women were assessed for cardiovascular risk factors (blood test for lipids: women 70%–76%, men 77%–81%; p<0.001). Body size was not commonly assessed (body mass index: women 59%, men 62%; p<0.001; waist: women 23%, men 25%; p<0.001). Higher proportions of women than men achieved targets for most risk factors (achieved ≥4 targets in patients assessed for all risk factors: women 82%, men 76%).

Conclusion

Gaps in preventative management including prescription of indicated medications and risk factor monitoring have been reported from the late 1990s and this large-scale general practice data analysis indicate they still persist. Moreover, the gap is larger in women compared to men. We need new ways to address these gaps and the sex inequity.

HIV-attributable causes of death in the medical ward at the Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Data on the association between HIV infection and deaths from underlying medical conditions are needed to understand and assess the impact of HIV on mortality. We present data on mortality in the Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital (CHBH) South Africa and analyse the relationship between each cause of death and HIV.

METHODS

From 2006 to 2009 data were collected on 15,725 deaths including age, sex, day of admittance and of death, HIV status, ART initiation and CD4+ cell counts. Causes of death associated with HIV were cases, causes of death not associated with HIV were controls. We calculate the odds-ratios (ORs) for being HIV-positive and for each AIDS related condition the disease-attributable fraction (DAF) and the population-attributable fraction (PAF) due to HIV for cases relative to controls.

RESULTS

Among those that died, the prevalence of HIV was 61% and of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) related conditions was 69%. The HIV-attributable fraction was 36% in the whole sample and 60% in those that were HIV-positive. Cryptococcosis, Kaposi's sarcoma and Pneumocystis jirovecii, TB, gastroenteritis and anaemia were highly predictive of HIV with odds ratios for being HIV-positive ranging from 8 to 124, while genito-urinary conditions, meningitis, other respiratory conditions and sepsis, lymphoma and conditions of skin and bone were significantly associated with HIV with odds ratios for being HIV-positive ranging from 3 to 8. Most of the deaths attributable to HIV were among those dying of TB or of other respiratory conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

The high prevalence of HIV among those that died, peaking at 70% in those aged 30 years but still 7% in those aged 80 years, demonstrates the impact of the HIV epidemic on adult mortality and on hospital services and the extent to which early anti-retroviral treatment would have reduced the burden of both. These data make it possible to better assess mortality and morbidity due to HIV in this still high prevalence setting and, in particular, to identify those causes of death that are most strongly associated with HIV.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Oncologist provision of smoking cessation support: A national survey of Australian medical and radiation oncologists

AIM

Continued smoking in patients diagnosed with cancer affects treatment outcomes and overall survival. With national surveys of Australian medical oncologists (MO) and radiation oncologists (RO) we sought to determine current clinical practices, preferences and barriers in providing patient smoking cessation support.

METHODS

Oncologist members of the Medical Oncology Group of Australia (n = 452) and Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group (n = 230) were invited to participate in a multiple choice survey exploring smoking cessation practices and beliefs.

RESULTS

The survey response rate was 43%. At first consultations more than 90% of MO and RO regularly asked patients if they smoke or use tobacco products, closely followed by documentation of duration of smoking history and current level of consumption. Less common was asking the patient if they intended to quit (MO 63%, RO 53%) and advising cessation (MO 70%, RO 72%). Less than 50% of oncologists regularly asked about current smoking in follow-up consultations. Although a range of referral options for smoking cessation care were used by oncologists, only 2% of MO and 3% of RO actively managed the patients' smoking cessation themselves and this was the least preferred option. The majority believed they require more training in cessation interventions (67% MO, 57% RO) and cited multiple additional barriers to providing cessation care.

CONCLUSIONS

Oncologists strongly prefer smoking cessation interventions to be managed by other health workers. A collaborative approach with other health professionals is needed to aid the provision of comprehensive smoking cessation care tailored to patients with cancer.

Productivity losses due to premature mortality from cancer in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS): A population-based comparison

BACKGROUND

Over two-thirds of the world's cancer deaths occur in economically developing countries; however, the societal costs of cancer have rarely been assessed in these settings. Our aim was to estimate the value of productivity lost in 2012 due to cancer-related premature mortality in the major developing economies of Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa (BRICS).

METHODS

We applied an incidence-based method using the human capital approach. We used annual adult cancer deaths from GLOBOCAN2012 to estimate the years of productive life lost between cancer death and pensionable age in each country, valued using national and international data for wages, and workforce statistics. Sensitivity analyses examined various methodological assumptions.

RESULTS

The total cost of lost productivity due to premature cancer mortality in the BRICS countries in 2012 was $46·3 billion, representing 0·33% of their combined gross domestic product. The largest total productivity loss was in China ($28 billion), while South Africa had the highest cost per cancer death ($101,000). Total productivity losses were greatest for lung cancer in Brazil, the Russian Federation and South Africa; liver cancer in China; and lip and oral cavity cancers in India.

CONCLUSION

Locally-tailored strategies are required to reduce the economic burden of cancer in developing economies. Focussing on tobacco control, vaccination programs and cancer screening, combined with access to adequate treatment, could yield significant gains for both public health and economic performance of the BRICS countries.

Physical activity, obesity and sedentary behaviour and the risks of colon and rectal cancers in the 45 and up study

Background

Obesity and physical activity (PA) are predictors of colon (CC) and rectal (RC) cancers. Prolonged sitting is also emerging as a potential predictor for these cancers. Little knowledge exists about the interactive effects of obesity, PA and prolonged sitting on cancer risk. This analysis assessed independent and interactive effects of PA, body mass index (BMI) and sitting time on CC and RC risks.

Methods

This analysis used data from a prospective study of 226,584 participants aged 45 years and over in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, who joined the 45 and Up study between 2006 and 2009. Baseline data were linked with data relating to mortality, cancer registration, hospital admission and Department of Human Services to December 2010. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (referred to as relative risks, RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (Cis). Statistical significance was defined as p < 0.05.

Results

There were 846 and 369 ascertained cases of CC and RC. BMI was positively associated with CC risk (p = 0.003, P-trend = 0.0006) but not with RC. CC risk was increased in participants in the highest BMI quartile (≥29.4-≤50 kg/m²) compared to the lowest (15- < 23.6 kg/m²), (RR = 1.32, 95% CI:1.08–1.63). PA was associated with CC risk (p = 0.02) but not with RC. Specifically, CC risk was lower in individuals partaking in any amount of vigorous activity (time/week) compared to participants with no engagement (RR = 0.78, 95% CI:0.65–0.93). Sitting time was not associated with CC or RC. We found no evidence of interactive effects of PA, BMI and prolonged sitting on cancer risk.

Conclusion

This evidence suggests that a healthy weight and vigorous activity are essential to reduce CC risk since these factors may be independent of each other.

Correction: Defining the genetic susceptibility to cervical neoplasia-A genome-wide association study

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgen.1006866.].

Early Life UV and Risk of Basal and Squamous Cell Carcinoma in New South Wales, Australia

Sun exposure is the main cause of squamous (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) although pattern and amount differ by cancer type, and sun sensitivity is the major host risk factor. Our study investigated risk factors and residential ambient UV in a population-based sample of Australian 45 and Up Study participants: 916 BCC cases, 433 SCC cases, 1224 controls. Unconditional logistic regression models adjusting for key covariates demonstrated 60% increased BCC risk and two-fold increased SCC risk with sun sensitivity, and three- and four-fold increased risk, respectively, with solar keratoses. BCC but not SCC risk increased with higher early-life residential UV in all participants (odds ratio (OR) = 1.54; 95% CI 1.22-1.96 for intermediate; OR = 1.31; 95% CI 1.03-1.68 for high UV at birthplace) and similarly in Australian-born participants (P-values < 0.05). Risk of SCC but not BCC increased with long-term cumulative sun exposure assessed by self-reported outdoor work (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.21-2.49). In conclusion, sun sensitivity is important for both cancers, early-life UV but not cumulative UV appears to increase BCC risk, the former an apparently novel finding, and SCC risk appears only to be related to long-term cumulative sun exposure.

International cancer seminars: a focus on esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) have initiated a series of cancer-focused seminars [Scelo G, Hofmann JN, Banks RE et al. International cancer seminars: a focus on kidney cancer. Ann Oncol 2016; 27(8): 1382-1385]. In this, the second seminar, IARC and NCI convened a workshop in order to examine the state of the current science on esophageal squamous cell carcinoma etiology, genetics, early detection, treatment, and palliation, was reviewed to identify the most critical open research questions. The results of these discussions were summarized by formulating a series of 'difficult questions', which should inform and prioritize future research efforts.

Defining the genetic susceptibility to cervical neoplasia-A genome-wide association study

A small percentage of women with cervical HPV infection progress to cervical neoplasia, and the risk factors determining progression are incompletely understood. We sought to define the genetic loci involved in cervical neoplasia and to assess its heritability using unbiased unrelated case/control statistical approaches. We demonstrated strong association of cervical neoplasia with risk and protective HLA haplotypes that are determined by the amino-acids carried at positions 13 and 71 in pocket 4 of HLA-DRB1 and position 156 in HLA-B. Furthermore, 36% (standard error 2.4%) of liability of HPV-associated cervical pre-cancer and cancer is determined by common genetic variants. Women in the highest 10% of genetic risk scores have approximately >7.1% risk, and those in the highest 5% have approximately >21.6% risk, of developing cervical neoplasia. Future studies should examine genetic risk prediction in assessing the risk of cervical neoplasia further, in combination with other screening methods.

Around 1% of women with cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) infection progress to cervical cancer. Previous studies had indicated that a person’s genetic makeup could predispose to HPV-associated cervical cancer, and that some of the genes likely to be involved include the immune-related human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes among the major histocompatibility complex (MHC). However, it has been difficult to determine which alleles might be associated with cervical pre-cancer or cancer due to the complex and high level of co-inheritance of MHC alleles. Here, we performed a genome-wide association study that assessed the correlation of genetic variants among those with cervical cancer and healthy controls. We show that host genetics is a major determinant of HPV-associated cervical cancer, with 36% of liability due to common genetic variants in the population, and identify both risk and protective HLA alleles. Our study was also sufficiently powerful to identify particular residue variants on a number of the immune-related proteins that provide risk or protection, providing further insight into the biological basis for cervical cancer development. Our findings could lay the foundation for screening for people at increased risk of developing cancer following HPV infection, and aid in the treatment and prognosis of cervical cancer.

Preanalytical Stability of Antibodies to Pathogenic Antigens

Background: Serologic testing for antibodies against epitopes from pathogens is a valuable tool for investigating the relationship between infection and disease. This study comprehensively evaluates the impact of preanalytic variation on antibody seropositivities to a selected set of antigens arising from delays in processing of blood samples, preprocessing storage temperature, and vacutainer type.Methods: We assessed peripheral blood collected from 29 volunteers in four different Vacutainer types [ethylenediaminoetetraacetic acid (EDTA), acid-citrate-dextrose (ACD), lithium heparin (LH), serum separator tubes (SST)], and stored at 4°C or room temperature for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 days before processing. Multiplex serology was used to determine antibody reactivity against 35 antigens derived from human papillomaviruses, human polyomaviruses, Epstein-Barr virus, and Helicobacter pylori Cohen's κ statistic was used to measure agreement on seropositivity status between samples exposed to standard and nonstandard clinical practice conditions.Results: For samples processed without delay, κ was not associated with storage-temperature (P value range 0.23 to 0.95) or vacutainer type (P value range, 0.35-0.89). Kappa did not significantly decline with increasing delays in processing for any vacutainer-type storage temperature combination (P slope range, 0.06-1.00).Conclusions: Antibodies to epitopes from various pathogenic infectious agents can be measured reliably from samples stored in SST, EDTA, ACD, or LH vacutainers at either room temperature or 4°C for up to 6 days before processing.Impact: Serologic testing is robust to several preanalytic options. These findings are particularly important for epidemiologic studies recruiting participants from remote settings where sample exposure to preanalytic conditions can vary considerably. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(8); 1337-44. ©2017 AACR.

Adult body size, sexual history and adolescent sexual development, may predict risk of developing prostate cancer: Results from the New South Wales Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study (CLEAR)

Prostate cancer (PC) is the most common non-cutaneous cancer in men worldwide. The relationships between PC and possible risk factors for PC cases (n = 1,181) and male controls (n = 875) from the New South Wales (NSW) Cancer, Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study (CLEAR) were examined in this study. The associations between PC risk and paternal history of PC, body mass index (BMI), medical conditions, sexual behaviour, balding pattern and puberty, after adjusting for age, income, region of birth, place of residence, and PSA testing, were examined. Adjusted risk of PC was higher for men with a paternal history of PC (OR = 2.31; 95%CI: 1.70-3.14), personal history of prostatitis (OR = 2.30; 95%CI: 1.44-3.70), benign prostatic hyperplasia (OR = 2.29; 95%CI: 1.79-2.93), being overweight (vs. normal; OR = 1.24; 95%CI: 0.99-1.55) or obese (vs. normal; OR = 1.44; 95%CI: 1.09-1.89), having reported more than seven sexual partners in a lifetime (vs. < 3 partners; OR = 2.00; 95%CI: 1.49-2.68), and having reported more than 5 orgasms a month prior to PC diagnosis (vs. ≤3 orgasms; OR = 1.59; 95%CI: 1.18-2.15). PC risk was lower for men whose timing of puberty was later than their peers (vs. same as peers; OR = 0.75; 95%CI: 0.59-0.97), and a smaller risk reduction of was observed in men whose timing of puberty was earlier than their peers (vs. same as peers; OR = 0.85; 95%CI: 0.61-1.17). No associations were found between PC risk and vertex balding, erectile function, acne, circumcision, vasectomy, asthma or diabetes. These results support a role for adult body size, sexual activity, and adolescent sexual development in PC development.

Mucosal alpha-papillomaviruses are not associated with esophageal squamous cell carcinomas: Lack of mechanistic evidence from South Africa, China and Iran and from a world-wide meta-analysis

Epidemiological and mechanistic evidence on the causative role of human papillomaviruses (HPV) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is unclear. We retrieved alcohol- and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded ESCC tissues from 133 patients seropositive for antibodies against HPV early proteins, from high-incidence ESCC regions: South Africa, China and Iran. With rigorous care to prevent nucleic acid contamination, we analyzed these tissues for the presence of 51 mucosotropic human alpha-papillomaviruses by two sensitive, broad-spectrum genotyping methods, and for the markers of HPV-transformed phenotype: (i) HPV16/18 viral loads by quantitative real-time PCR, (ii) type-specific viral mRNA by E6*I/E6 full-length RT-PCR assays and (iii) expression of cellular protein p16(INK4a). Of 118 analyzable ESCC tissues, 10 (8%) were positive for DNA of HPV types: 16 (4 tumors); 33, 35, 45 (1 tumor each); 11 (2 tumors) and 16, 70 double infection (1 tumor). Inconsistent HPV DNA+ findings by two genotyping methods and negativity in qPCR indicated very low viral loads. A single HPV16 DNA+ tumor additionally harbored HPV16 E6*I mRNA but was p16(INK4a) negative (HPV16 E1 seropositive patient). Another HPV16 DNA+ tumor from an HPV16 E6 seropositive patient showed p16(INK4a) upregulation but no HPV16 mRNA. In the tumor tissues of these serologically preselected ESCC patients, we did not find consistent presence of HPV DNA, HPV mRNA or p16(INK4a) upregulation. These results were supported by a meta-analysis of 14 other similar studies regarding HPV-transformation of ESCC. Our study does not support the etiological role of the 51 analyzed mucosotropic HPV types in the ESCC carcinogenesis.

Has the incidence of brain cancer risen in Australia since the introduction of mobile phones 29 years ago?

BACKGROUND

Mobile phone use in Australia has increased rapidly since its introduction in 1987 with whole population usage being 94% by 2014. We explored the popularly hypothesised association between brain cancer incidence and mobile phone use.

STUDY METHODS

Using national cancer registration data, we examined age and gender specific incidence rates of 19,858 male and 14,222 females diagnosed with brain cancer in Australia between 1982 and 2012, and mobile phone usage data from 1987 to 2012. We modelled expected age specific rates (20-39, 40-59, 60-69, 70-84 years), based on published reports of relative risks (RR) of 1.5 in ever-users of mobile phones, and RR of 2.5 in a proportion of 'heavy users' (19% of all users), assuming a 10-year lag period between use and incidence.

SUMMARY ANSWERS

Age adjusted brain cancer incidence rates (20-84 years, per 100,000) have risen slightly in males (p<0.05) but were stable over 30 years in females (p>0.05) and are higher in males 8.7 (CI=8.1-9.3) than in females, 5.8 (CI=5.3-6.3). Assuming a causal RR of 1.5 and 10-year lag period, the expected incidence rate in males in 2012 would be 11.7 (11-12.4) and in females 7.7 (CI=7.2-8.3), both p<0.01; 1434 cases observed in 2012, vs. 1867 expected. Significant increases in brain cancer incidence were observed (in keeping with modelled rates) only in those aged ≥70 years (both sexes), but the increase in incidence in this age group began from 1982, before the introduction of mobile phones. Modelled expected incidence rates were higher in all age groups in comparison to what was observed. Assuming a causal RR of 2.5 among 'heavy users' gave 2038 expected cases in all age groups.

LIMITATIONS

This is an ecological trends analysis, with no data on individual mobile phone use and outcome.

WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS

The observed stability of brain cancer incidence in Australia between 1982 and 2012 in all age groups except in those over 70 years compared to increasing modelled expected estimates, suggests that the observed increases in brain cancer incidence in the older age group are unlikely to be related to mobile phone use. Rather, we hypothesize that the observed increases in brain cancer incidence in Australia are related to the advent of improved diagnostic procedures when computed tomography and related imaging technologies were introduced in the early 1980s.