Comparative evolution of influenza A virus H1 and H3 head and stalk domains across host species

IMPORTANCE

For decades, researchers have studied the rapid evolution of influenza A viruses for vaccine design and as a useful model system for the study of host/parasite evolution. By performing an exhaustive analysis of hemagglutinin protein (HA) sequences from 49 lineages independently evolving in birds, swine, canines, equines, and humans over the last century, our work uncovers surprising features of HA evolution. In particular, the canine H3 stalk, unlike human H3 and H1 stalk domains, is not evolving slowly, suggesting that evolution in the stalk domain is not universally constrained across all host species. Therefore, a broader multi-host perspective on HA evolution may be useful during the evaluation and design of stalk-targeted vaccine candidates.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) in marine mammals and seabirds in Peru

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A/H5N1 viruses (lineage 2.3.4.4b) are rapidly invading the Americas, threatening wildlife, poultry, and potentially evolving into the next global pandemic. In November 2022 HPAI arrived in Peru, triggering massive pelican and sea lion die-offs. We report genomic characterization of HPAI/H5N1 in five species of marine mammals and seabirds (dolphins, sea lions, sanderlings, pelicans and cormorants). Peruvian viruses belong to lineage 2.3.4.4b, but they are 4:4 reassortants where 4 genomic segments (PA, HA, NA and MP) position within the Eurasian lineage that initially entered North America from Eurasia, while the other 4 genomic segments (PB2, PB1, NP and NS) position within the American lineage (clade C) that circulated in North America. These viruses are rapidly accruing mutations, including mutations of concern, that warrant further examination and highlight an urgent need for active local surveillance to manage outbreaks and limit spillover into other species, including humans.

Accelerated evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in free-ranging white-tailed deer

The zoonotic origin of the COVID-19 pandemic virus highlights the need to fill the vast gaps in our knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 ecology and evolution in non-human hosts. Here, we detected that SARS-CoV-2 was introduced from humans into white-tailed deer more than 30 times in Ohio, USA during November 2021-March 2022. Subsequently, deer-to-deer transmission persisted for 2-8 months, disseminating across hundreds of kilometers. Newly developed Bayesian phylogenetic methods quantified how SARS-CoV-2 evolution is not only three-times faster in white-tailed deer compared to the rate observed in humans but also driven by different mutational biases and selection pressures. The long-term effect of this accelerated evolutionary rate remains to be seen as no critical phenotypic changes were observed in our animal models using white-tailed deer origin viruses. Still, SARS-CoV-2 has transmitted in white-tailed deer populations for a relatively short duration, and the risk of future changes may have serious consequences for humans and livestock.

Cross-species transmission and PB2 mammalian adaptations of highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5N1 viruses in Chile

H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) emerged in wild birds in Chile in December 2022 and spilled over into poultry, marine mammals, and one human. Between December 9, 2022 - March 14, 2023, a coordinated government/academic response detected HPAIV by real-time RT-PCR in 8.5% (412/4735) of samples from 23 avian and 3 mammal orders. Whole-genome sequences obtained from 77 birds and 8 marine mammals revealed that all Chilean H5N1 viruses belong to lineage 2.3.4.4b and cluster monophyletically with viruses from Peru, indicating a single introduction from North America into Peru/Chile. Mammalian adaptations were identified in the PB2 segment: D701N in two sea lions, one human, and one shorebird, and Q591K in the human and one sea lion. Minor variant analysis revealed that D701N was present in 52.9 - 70.9% of sequence reads, indicating the presence of both genotypes within hosts. Further surveillance of spillover events is warranted to assess the emergence and potential onward transmission of mammalian adapted H5N1 HPAIV in South America.

Influenza A viruses in gulls in landfills and freshwater habitats in Minnesota, United States

Introduction: The unpredictable evolution of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) presents an ongoing threat to agricultural production and public and wildlife health. Severe outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses in US poultry and wild birds since 2022 highlight the urgent need to understand the changing ecology of AIV. Surveillance of gulls in marine coastal environments has intensified in recent years to learn how their long-range pelagic movements potentially facilitate inter-hemispheric AIV movements. In contrast, little is known about inland gulls and their role in AIV spillover, maintenance, and long-range dissemination. Methods: To address this gap, we conducted active AIV surveillance in ring-billed gulls (Larus delawarensis) and Franklin's gulls (Leucophaeus pipixcan) in Minnesota's natural freshwater lakes during the summer breeding season and in landfills during fall migration (1,686 samples). Results: Whole-genome AIV sequences obtained from 40 individuals revealed three-lineage reassortants with a mix of genome segments from the avian Americas lineage, avian Eurasian lineage, and a global "Gull" lineage that diverged more than 50 years ago from the rest of the AIV global gene pool. No poultry viruses contained gull-adapted H13, NP, or NS genes, pointing to limited spillover. Geolocators traced gull migration routes across multiple North American flyways, explaining how inland gulls imported diverse AIV lineages from distant locations. Migration patterns were highly varied and deviated far from assumed "textbook" routes. Discussion: Viruses circulating in Minnesota gulls during the summer breeding season in freshwater environments reappeared in autumn landfills, evidence of AIV persistence in gulls between seasons and transmission between habitats. Going forward, wider adoption of technological advances in animal tracking devices and genetic sequencing is needed to expand AIV surveillance in understudied hosts and habitats.

Tracking the emergence of antigenic variants in influenza A virus epidemics in Brazil

Influenza A virus (IAV) circulation patterns differ in North America and South America, with influenza seasons often characterized by different subtypes and strains. However, South America is relatively undersampled considering the size of its population. To address this gap, we sequenced the complete genomes of 220 IAVs collected between 2009 and 2016 from hospitalized patients in southern Brazil. New genetic drift variants were introduced into southern Brazil each season from a global gene pool, including four H3N2 clades (3c, 3c2, 3c3, and 3c2a) and five H1N1pdm clades (clades 6, 7, 6b, 6c, and 6b1). In 2016, H1N1pdm viruses belonging to a new 6b1 clade caused a severe influenza epidemic in southern Brazil that arrived early and spread rapidly, peaking mid-autumn. Inhibition assays showed that the A/California/07/2009(H1N1) vaccine strain did not protect well against 6b1 viruses. Phylogenetically, most 6b1 sequences that circulated in southern Brazil belong to a single transmission cluster that rapidly diffused across susceptible populations, leading to the highest levels of influenza hospitalization and mortality seen since the 2009 pandemic. Continuous genomic surveillance is needed to monitor rapidly evolving IAVs for vaccine strain selection and understand their epidemiological impact in understudied regions.

Origins and Evolution of Seasonal Human Coronaviruses

Four seasonal human coronaviruses (sHCoVs) are endemic globally (229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1), accounting for 5-30% of human respiratory infections. However, the epidemiology and evolution of these CoVs remain understudied due to their association with mild symptomatology. Using a multigene and complete genome analysis approach, we find the evolutionary histories of sHCoVs to be highly complex, owing to frequent recombination of CoVs including within and between sHCoVs, and uncertain, due to the under sampling of non-human viruses. The recombination rate was highest for 229E and OC43 whereas substitutions per recombination event were highest in NL63 and HKU1. Depending on the gene studied, OC43 may have ungulate, canine, or rabbit CoV ancestors. 229E may have origins in a bat, camel, or an unsampled intermediate host. HKU1 had the earliest common ancestor (1809-1899) but fell into two distinct clades (genotypes A and B), possibly representing two independent transmission events from murine-origin CoVs that appear to be a single introduction due to large gaps in the sampling of CoVs in animals. In fact, genotype B was genetically more diverse than all the other sHCoVs. Finally, we found shared amino acid substitutions in multiple proteins along the non-human to sHCoV host-jump branches. The complex evolution of CoVs and their frequent host switches could benefit from continued surveillance of CoVs across non-human hosts.

Homotypic protection against influenza in a pediatric cohort in Managua, Nicaragua

The period of protection from repeat infection following symptomatic influenza is not well established due to limited availability of longitudinal data. Using data from a pediatric cohort in Managua, Nicaragua, we examine the effects of natural influenza virus infection on subsequent infection with the same influenza virus subtype/lineage across multiple seasons, totaling 2,170 RT-PCR-confirmed symptomatic influenza infections. Logistic regression models assessed whether infection in the prior influenza season protected against homologous reinfection. We sequenced viruses from 2011-2019 identifying dominant clades and measuring antigenic distances between hemagglutinin clades. We observe homotypic protection from repeat infection in children infected with influenza A/H1N1pdm (OR 0.12, CI 0.02-0.88), A/H3N2 (OR 0.41, CI 0.24-0.73), and B/Victoria (OR 0.00, CI 0.00-0.14), but not with B/Yamagata viruses (OR 0.60, CI 0.09-2.10). Overall, protection wanes as time or antigenic distance increases. Individuals infected with one subtype or lineage of influenza virus have significantly lower odds of homologous reinfection for the following one to two years; after two years this protection wanes. This protection is demonstrated across multiple seasons, subtypes, and lineages among children.

Birth cohort relative to an influenza A virus's antigenic cluster introduction drives patterns of children's antibody titers

An individual's antibody titers to influenza A strains are a result of the complicated interplay between infection history, cross-reactivity, immune waning, and other factors. It has been challenging to disentangle how population-level patterns of humoral immunity change as a function of age, calendar year, and birth cohort from cross-sectional data alone. We analyzed 1,589 longitudinal sera samples from 260 children across three studies in Nicaragua, 2006-16. Hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titers were determined against four H3N2 strains, one H1N1 strain, and two H1N1pdm strains. We assessed temporal patterns of HAI titers using an age-period-cohort modeling framework. We found that titers against a given virus depended on calendar year of serum collection and birth cohort but not on age. Titer cohort patterns were better described by participants' ages relative to year of likely introduction of the virus's antigenic cluster than by age relative to year of strain introduction or by year of birth. These cohort effects may be driven by a decreasing likelihood of early-life infection after cluster introduction and by more broadly reactive antibodies at a young age. H3N2 and H1N1 viruses had qualitatively distinct cohort patterns, with cohort patterns of titers to specific H3N2 strains reaching their peak in children born 3 years prior to that virus's antigenic cluster introduction and with titers to H1N1 and H1N1pdm strains peaking for children born 1-2 years prior to cluster introduction but not being dramatically lower for older children. Ultimately, specific patterns of strain circulation and antigenic cluster introduction may drive population-level antibody titer patterns in children.

Evolution of influenza A virus in intensive and free-range swine farms in Spain

Swine harbor genetically diverse influenza A viruses (IAVs) with the capacity to host-switch to humans, causing global pandemics. Spain is the largest swine producer in Europe and has a mixed production system that includes 'white coat' pigs raised intensively in modern buildings and free-range Iberian pigs that interface differently with humans, wildlife, and other swine. Through active longitudinal IAV surveillance in nine Spanish provinces during 2015-9, we generated forty-seven complete or near-complete genome sequences from IAVs collected from swine in both systems. Genetically diverse IAVs were identified in intensively raised white pigs and free-range Iberian pigs, including new H3N1 reassortants. Both systems are dynamic environments for IAV evolution, but driven by different processes. IAVs in white pigs were genetically related to viruses found in swine raised intensively in other European countries, reflecting high rates of viral introduction following European trade routes. In contrast, IAVs in Iberian pigs have a genetic makeup shaped by frequent introductions of human IAVs, reflecting rearing practices with high rates of human contact. Transmission between white and Iberian pigs also occurred. In conclusion, Iberian swine with high rates of human contact harbor genetically diverse IAVs and potentially serve as intermediary hosts between white pigs and humans, presenting an understudied zoonotic risk that requires further investigation.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in free-ranging white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus )

Human-to-animal spillover of SARS-CoV-2 virus has occurred in a wide range of animals, but thus far, the establishment of a new natural animal reservoir has not been detected. Here, we detected SARS-CoV-2 virus using rRT-PCR in 129 out of 360 (35.8%) free-ranging white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) from northeast Ohio (USA) sampled between January-March 2021. Deer in 6 locations were infected with at least 3 lineages of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.2, B.1.596, B.1.582). The B.1.2 viruses, dominant in Ohio at the time, spilled over multiple times into deer populations in different locations. Deer-to-deer transmission may have occurred in three locations. The establishment of a natural reservoir of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer could facilitate divergent evolutionary trajectories and future spillback to humans, further complicating long-term COVID-19 control strategies.

ONE-SENTENCE SUMMARY

A significant proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in free-ranging US white-tailed deer reveals a potential new reservoir.

Tracing the Source of Influenza A Virus Zoonoses in Interconnected Circuits of Swine Exhibitions

BACKGROUND

Since 2011, influenza A viruses circulating in US swine exhibited at county fairs are associated with >460 zoonotic infections, presenting an ongoing pandemic risk. Swine "jackpot shows" that occur before county fairs each summer intermix large numbers of exhibition swine from diverse geographic locations. We investigated the role of jackpot shows in influenza zoonoses.

METHODS

We collected snout wipe or nasal swab samples from 17 009 pigs attending 350 national, state, and local swine exhibitions across 8 states during 2016-2018.

RESULTS

Influenza was detected in 13.9% of swine sampled at jackpot shows, and 76.3% of jackpot shows had at least 1 pig test positive. Jackpot shows had 4.3-fold higher odds of detecting at least 1 influenza-positive pig compared to county fairs. When influenza was detected at a county fair, almost half of pigs tested positive, clarifying why zoonotic infections occur primarily at county fairs.

CONCLUSIONS

The earlier timing of jackpot shows and long-distance travel for repeated showing of individual pigs provide a pathway for the introduction of influenza into county fairs. Mitigation strategies aimed at curtailing influenza at jackpot shows are likely to have downstream effects on disease transmission at county fairs and zoonoses.

Molecular characterization of respiratory syncytial viruses circulating in a paediatric cohort in Amman, Jordan

Respiratory syncytial viruses (RSVs) are an important cause of mortality worldwide and a major cause of respiratory tract infections in children, driving development of vaccine candidates. However, there are large gaps in our knowledge of the local evolutionary and transmission dynamics of RSVs, particularly in understudied regions such as the Middle East. To address this gap, we sequenced the complete genomes of 58 RSVA and 27 RSVB samples collected in a paediatric cohort in Amman, Jordan, between 2010 and 2013. RSVA and RSVB co-circulated during each winter epidemic of RSV in Amman, and each epidemic comprised multiple independent viral introductions of RSVA and RSVB. However, RSVA and RSVB alternated in dominance across years, potential evidence of immunological interactions. Children infected with RSVA tended to be older than RSVB-infected children [30 months versus 22.4 months, respectively (P value = 0.02)], and tended to developed bronchopneumonia less frequently than those with RSVB, although the difference was not statistically significant (P value = 0.06). Differences in spatial patterns were investigated, and RSVA lineages were often identified in multiple regions in Amman, whereas RSVB introductions did not spread beyond a single region of the city, although these findings were based on small sample sizes. Multiple RSVA genotypes were identified in Amman, including GA2 viruses as well as three viruses from the ON1 sub-genotype that emerged in 2009 and are now the dominant genotype circulating worldwide. As vaccine development advances, further sequencing of RSV is needed to understand viral ecology and transmission, particularly in under-studied locations.

The Evolutionary Dynamics of Influenza A Viruses Circulating in Mallards in Duck Hunting Preserves in Maryland, USA

Duck hunting preserves (DHP) have resident populations of farm-raised mallard ducks, which create potential foci for the evolution of novel influenza A viruses (IAVs). Through an eleven-year (2003–2013) IAV surveillance project in seven DHPs in Maryland, USA, we frequently identified IAVs in the resident, free-flying mallard ducks (5.8% of cloacal samples were IAV-positive). The IAV population had high genetic diversity, including 12 HA subtypes and 9 NA subtypes. By sequencing the complete genomes of 290 viruses, we determined that genetically diverse IAVs were introduced annually into DHP ducks, predominantly from wild birds in the Anatidae family that inhabit the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways. The relatively low viral gene flow observed out of DHPs suggests that raised mallards do not sustain long-term viral persistence nor do they serve as important sources of new viruses in wild birds. Overall, our findings indicate that DHPs offer reliable samples of the diversity of IAV subtypes, and could serve as regional sentinel sites that mimic the viral diversity found in local wild duck populations, which would provide a cost-efficient strategy for long-term IAV monitoring. Such monitoring could allow for early identification and characterization of viruses that threaten bird species of high economic and environmental interest.

Epidemiological hypothesis testing using a phylogeographic and phylodynamic framework

Computational analyses of pathogen genomes are increasingly used to unravel the dispersal history and transmission dynamics of epidemics. Here, we show how to go beyond historical reconstructions and use spatially-explicit phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to formally test epidemiological hypotheses. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the West Nile virus (WNV) spread in North America that has substantially impacted public, veterinary, and wildlife health. We apply an analytical workflow to a comprehensive WNV genome collection to test the impact of environmental factors on the dispersal of viral lineages and on viral population genetic diversity through time. We find that WNV lineages tend to disperse faster in areas with higher temperatures and we identify temporal variation in temperature as a main predictor of viral genetic diversity through time. By contrasting inference with simulation, we find no evidence for viral lineages to preferentially circulate within the same migratory bird flyway, suggesting a substantial role for non-migratory birds or mosquito dispersal along the longitudinal gradient.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and North America

Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critical for public health responses and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here we elucidate when, where, and how the earliest sustained severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission networks became established in Europe and North America. Our results suggest that rapid early interventions successfully prevented early introductions of the virus from taking hold in Germany and the United States. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington state, United States, founded the earliest sustained European and North America transmission networks. Our analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of public health measures in preventing onward transmission and show that intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks from becoming established in these regions.

The challenges of vaccine strain selection

New measures of influenza virus fitness could improve vaccine strain selection through more accurate forecasts of the evolution of the virus.

Accommodating individual travel history and unsampled diversity in Bayesian phylogeographic inference of SARS-CoV-2

Spatiotemporal bias in genome sampling can severely confound discrete trait phylogeographic inference. This has impeded our ability to accurately track the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the availability of unprecedented numbers of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Here, we present an approach to integrate individual travel history data in Bayesian phylogeographic inference and apply it to the early spread of SARS-CoV-2. We demonstrate that including travel history data yields i) more realistic hypotheses of virus spread and ii) higher posterior predictive accuracy compared to including only sampling location. We further explore methods to ameliorate the impact of sampling bias by augmenting the phylogeographic analysis with lineages from undersampled locations. Our reconstructions reinforce specific transmission hypotheses suggested by the inclusion of travel history data, but also suggest alternative routes of virus migration that are plausible within the epidemiological context but are not apparent with current sampling efforts.

Beyond clinical trials: Evolutionary and epidemiological considerations for development of a universal influenza vaccine

The prospect of universal influenza vaccines is generating much interest and research at the intersection of immunology, epidemiology, and viral evolution. While the current focus is on developing a vaccine that elicits a broadly cross-reactive immune response in clinical trials, there are important downstream questions about global deployment of a universal influenza vaccine that should be explored to minimize unintended consequences and maximize benefits. Here, we review and synthesize the questions most relevant to predicting the population benefits of universal influenza vaccines and discuss how existing information could be mined to begin to address these questions. We review three research topics where computational modeling could bring valuable evidence: immune imprinting, viral evolution, and transmission. We address the positive and negative consequences of imprinting, in which early childhood exposure to influenza shapes and limits immune responses to future infections via memory of conserved influenza antigens. However, the mechanisms at play, their effectiveness, breadth of protection, and the ability to "reprogram" already imprinted individuals, remains heavily debated. We describe instances of rapid influenza evolution that illustrate the plasticity of the influenza virus in the face of drug pressure and discuss how novel vaccines could introduce new selective pressures on the evolution of the virus. We examine the possible unintended consequences of broadly protective (but infection-permissive) vaccines on the dynamics of epidemic and pandemic influenza, compared to conventional vaccines that have been shown to provide herd immunity benefits. In conclusion, computational modeling offers a valuable tool to anticipate the benefits of ambitious universal influenza vaccine programs, while balancing the risks from endemic influenza strains and unpredictable pandemic viruses. Moving forward, it will be important to mine the vast amount of data generated in clinical studies of universal influenza vaccines to ensure that the benefits and consequences of these vaccine programs have been carefully modeled and explored.

Accommodating individual travel history, global mobility, and unsampled diversity in phylogeography: a SARS-CoV-2 case study

Spatiotemporal bias in genome sequence sampling can severely confound phylogeographic inference based on discrete trait ancestral reconstruction. This has impeded our ability to accurately track the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2, which is the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the availability of staggering numbers of genomes on a global scale, evolutionary reconstructions of SARS-CoV-2 are hindered by the slow accumulation of sequence divergence over its relatively short transmission history. When confronted with these issues, incorporating additional contextual data may critically inform phylodynamic reconstructions. Here, we present a new approach to integrate individual travel history data in Bayesian phylogeographic inference and apply it to the early spread of SARS-CoV-2, while also including global air transportation data. We demonstrate that including travel history data for each SARS-CoV-2 genome yields more realistic reconstructions of virus spread, particularly when travelers from undersampled locations are included to mitigate sampling bias. We further explore the impact of sampling bias by incorporating unsampled sequences from undersampled locations in the analyses. Our reconstructions reinforce specific transmission hypotheses suggested by the inclusion of travel history data, but also suggest alternative routes of virus migration that are plausible within the epidemiological context but are not apparent with current sampling efforts. Although further research is needed to fully examine the performance of our new data integration approaches and to further improve them, they represent multiple new avenues for directly addressing the colossal issue of sample bias in phylogeographic inference.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and the US

Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critically important for public health response and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here, we elucidate when, where and how the earliest sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission networks became established in Europe and the United States (US). Our results refute prior findings erroneously linking cases in January 2020 with outbreaks that occurred weeks later. Instead, rapid interventions successfully prevented onward transmission of those early cases in Germany and Washington State. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington State founded the earliest sustained European and US transmission networks. Our analyses reveal an extended period of missed opportunity when intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 from becoming established in the US and Europe.

Evolution of highly pathogenic H7N3 avian influenza viruses in Mexico

Highly pathogenic H7N3 influenza A viruses have persisted in poultry in Mexico since 2012, diversifying into multiple lineages that have spread to three Mexican states, as of 2016. The H7N3 viruses segregate into three distinct clades that are geographically structured. All 2016 viruses are resistant to adamantane antiviral drugs and have an extended 24-nucleotide insertion at the HA cleavage site that was acquired from host 28S ribosomal RNA.

Characterization of swine-origin H1N1 canine influenza viruses

Host switch events of influenza A viruses (IAVs) continuously pose a zoonotic threat to humans. In 2013, swine-origin H1N1 IAVs emerged in dogs soon after they were detected in swine in the Guangxi province of China. This host switch was followed by multiple reassortment events between these H1N1 and previously circulating H3N2 canine IAVs (IAVs-C) in dogs. To evaluate the phenotype of these newly identified viruses, we characterized three swine-origin H1N1 IAVs-C and one reassortant H1N1 IAV-C. We found that H1N1 IAVs-C predominantly bound to human-type receptors, efficiently transmitted via direct contact in guinea pigs and replicated in human lung cells. Moreover, the swine-origin H1N1 IAVs-C were lethal in mice and were transmissible by respiratory droplets in guinea pigs. Importantly, sporadic human infections with these viruses have been detected, and preexisting immunity in humans might not be sufficient to prevent infections with these new viruses. Our results show the potential of H1N1 IAVs-C to infect and transmit in humans, suggesting that these viruses should be closely monitored in the future.

Sequencing and analysis of globally obtained human parainfluenza viruses 1 and 3 genomes

Human Parainfluenza viruses (HPIV) type 1 and 3 are important causes of respiratory tract infections in young children globally. HPIV infections do not confer complete protective immunity so reinfections occur throughout life. Since no effective vaccine is available for the two virus subtypes, comprehensive understanding of HPIV-1 and HPIV-3 genetic and epidemic features is important for diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of HPIV-1 and HPIV-3 infections. Relatively few whole genome sequences are available for both HPIV-1 and HPIV-3 viruses, so our study sought to provide whole genome sequences from multiple countries to further the understanding of the global diversity of HPIV at a whole-genome level. We collected HPIV-1 and HPIV-3 samples and isolates from Argentina, Australia, France, Mexico, South Africa, Switzerland, and USA from the years 2003-2011 and sequenced the genomes of 40 HPIV-1 and 75 HPIV-3 viruses with Sanger and next-generation sequencing with the Ion Torrent, Illumina, and 454 platforms. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the HPIV-1 genome is evolving at an estimated rate of 4.97 × 10-4 mutations/site/year (95% highest posterior density 4.55 × 10-4 to 5.38 × 10-4) and the HPIV-3 genome is evolving at a similar rate (3.59 × 10-4 mutations/site/year, 95% highest posterior density 3.26 × 10-4 to 3.94 × 10-4). There were multiple genetically distinct lineages of both HPIV-1 and 3 circulating on a global scale. Further surveillance and whole-genome sequencing are greatly needed to better understand the spatial dynamics of these important respiratory viruses in humans.

Human-Origin Influenza A(H3N2) Reassortant Viruses in Swine, Southeast Mexico

The genetic diversity of influenza A viruses circulating in swine in Mexico complicates control efforts in animals and presents a threat to humans, as shown by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus. To describe evolution of swine influenza A viruses in Mexico and evaluate strains for vaccine development, we sequenced the genomes of 59 viruses and performed antigenic cartography on strains from 5 regions. We found that genetic and antigenic diversity were particularly high in southeast Mexico because of repeated introductions of viruses from humans and swine in other regions in Mexico. We identified novel reassortant H3N2 viruses with genome segments derived from 2 different viruses that were independently introduced from humans into swine: pandemic H1N1 viruses and seasonal H3N2 viruses. The Mexico swine viruses are antigenically distinct from US swine lineages. Protection against these viruses is unlikely to be afforded by US virus vaccines and would require development of new vaccines specifically targeting these diverse strains.

Evolution of rotavirus C in humans and several domestic animal species

Rotavirus C (RVC) causes enteric disease in multiple species, including humans, swine, bovines, and canines. To date, the evolutionary relationships of RVC populations circulating in different host species are poorly understood, owing to the low availability of genetic sequence data. To address this gap, we sequenced 45 RVC complete genomes from swine samples collected in the United States and Mexico. A phylogenetic analysis of each genome segment indicates that RVC populations have been evolving independently in human, swine, canine, and bovine hosts for at least the last century, with inter-species transmission events occurring deep in the phylogenetic tree, and none in the last 100 years. Bovine and canine RVC populations clustered together nine of the 11 gene segments, indicating a shared common ancestor centuries ago. The evolutionary relationships of RVC in humans and swine were more complex, due to the extensive genetic diversity and multiple RVC clades identified in pigs, which were not structured geographically. Topological differences between trees inferred for different genome segments occurred frequently, including at nodes deep in the tree, indicating that RVC's evolutionary history includes multiple reassortment events that occurred a long time ago. Overall, we find that RVC is evolving within host-defined lineages, but the evolutionary history of RVC is more complex than previously recognized due to the high genetic diversity of RVC in swine, with a common ancestor dating back centuries. Pigs may act as a reservoir host for RVC, and a source of the lineages identified in other species, including humans, but additional sequencing is needed to understand the full diversity of this understudied pathogen across multiple host species.

Origins of the 1918 Pandemic: Revisiting the Swine "Mixing Vessel" Hypothesis

How influenza A viruses host-jump from animal reservoir species to humans, which can initiate global pandemics, is a central question in pathogen evolution. The zoonotic and spatial origins of the influenza virus associated with the “Spanish flu” pandemic of 1918 have been debated for decades. Outbreaks of respiratory disease in US swine occurred concurrently with disease in humans, raising the possibility that the 1918 virus originated in pigs. Swine also were proposed as “mixing vessel” intermediary hosts between birds and humans during the 1957 Asian and 1968 Hong Kong pandemics. Swine have presented an attractive explanation for how avian viruses overcome the substantial evolutionary barriers presented by different cellular environments in humans and birds. However, key assumptions underpinning the swine mixing-vessel model of pandemic emergence have been challenged in light of new evidence. Increased surveillance in swine has revealed that human-to-swine transmission actually occurs far more frequently than the reverse, and there is no empirical evidence that swine played a role in the emergence of human influenza in 1918, 1957, or 1968. Swine-to-human transmission occurs periodically and can trigger pandemics, as in 2009. But swine are not necessary to mediate the establishment of avian viruses in humans, which invites new perspectives on the evolutionary processes underlying pandemic emergence.

Evidence of a fixed internal gene constellation in influenza A viruses isolated from wild birds in Argentina (2006-2016)

Wild aquatic birds are the major reservoir of influenza A virus. Cloacal swabs and feces samples (n = 6595) were collected from 62 bird species in Argentina from 2006 to 2016 and screened for influenza A virus. Full genome sequencing of 15 influenza isolates from 6 waterfowl species revealed subtypes combinations that were previously described in South America (H1N1, H4N2, H4N6 (n = 3), H5N3, H6N2 (n = 4), and H10N7 (n = 2)), and new ones not previously identified in the region (H4N8, H7N7 and H7N9). Notably, the internal gene segments of all 15 Argentine isolates belonged to the South American lineage, showing a divergent evolution of these viruses in the Southern Hemisphere. Time-scaled phylogenies indicated that South American gene segments diverged between ~ 30 and ~ 140 years ago from the most closely related influenza lineages, which include the avian North American (PB1, HA, NA, MP, and NS-B) and Eurasian lineage (PB2), and the equine H3N8 lineage (PA, NP, and NS-A). Phylogenetic analyses of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase gene segments of the H4, H6, and N8 subtypes revealed recent introductions and reassortment between viruses from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in the Americas. Remarkably and despite evidence of recent hemagglutinin and neuraminidase subtype introductions, the phylogenetic composition of internal gene constellation of these influenza A viruses has remained unchanged. Considering the extended time and the number of sampled species of the current study, and the paucity of previously available data, our results contribute to a better understanding of the ecology and evolution of influenza virus in South America.

Genetic Diversity of Noroviruses Circulating in a Pediatric Cohort in Bangladesh

Noroviruses are a leading cause of diarrhea in children aged <5 years worldwide. We genotyped 88 viruses collected by active surveillance in a birth cohort of children <2 years of age in Dhaka, Bangladesh, during 2010-2013. Twenty-five of 31 (81%) established GI and GII genotypes were detected, with GII.4 as the predominant genotype (20%). Our results show that children in Bangladesh are infected with a great diversity of norovirus strains. Reinfections are common, but not with closely related genotypes. Birth cohort studies are critical to understand cross-protective immunity and advance the development of pediatric norovirus vaccines.

The transmission dynamics and diversity of human metapneumovirus in Peru

Background

The transmission dynamics of human metapneumovirus (HMPV) in tropical countries remain unclear. Further understanding of the genetic diversity of the virus could aid in HMPV vaccine design and improve our understanding of respiratory virus transmission dynamics in low‐ and middle‐income countries.

Materials & Methods

We examined the evolution of HMPV in Peru through phylogenetic analysis of 61 full genome HMPV sequences collected in three ecologically diverse regions of Peru (Lima, Piura, and Iquitos) during 2008‐2012, comprising the largest data set of HMPV whole genomes sequenced from any tropical country to date.

Results

We revealed extensive genetic diversity generated by frequent viral introductions, with little evidence of local persistence. While considerable viral traffic between non‐Peruvian countries and Peru was observed, HMPV epidemics in Peruvian locales were more frequently epidemiologically linked with other sites within Peru. We showed that Iquitos experienced greater HMPV traffic than the similar sized city of Piura by both Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods.

Conclusions

There is extensive HMPV genetic diversity even within smaller and relatively less connected cities of Peru and this virus is spatially fluid. Greater diversity of HMPV in Iquitos compared to Piura may relate to higher volumes of human movement, including air traffic to this location.

The emergence and evolution of influenza A (H1α) viruses in swine in Canada and the United States

Swine are a key reservoir host for influenza A viruses (IAVs), with the potential to cause global pandemics in humans. Gaps in surveillance in many of the world's largest swine populations impede our understanding of how novel viruses emerge and expand their spatial range in pigs. Although US swine are intensively sampled, little is known about IAV diversity in Canada's population of ~12 million pigs. By sequencing 168 viruses from multiple regions of Canada, our study reveals that IAV diversity has been underestimated in Canadian pigs for many years. Critically, a new H1 clade has emerged in Canada (H1α-3), with a two-amino acid deletion at H1 positions 146-147, that experienced rapid growth in Manitoba's swine herds during 2014-2015. H1α-3 viruses also exhibit a higher capacity to invade US swine herds, resulting in multiple recent introductions of the virus into the US Heartland following large-scale movements of pigs in this direction. From the Heartland, H1α-3 viruses have disseminated onward to both the east and west coasts of the United States, and may become established in Appalachia. These findings demonstrate how long-distance trading of live pigs facilitates the spread of IAVs, increasing viral genetic diversity and complicating pathogen control. The proliferation of novel H1α-3 viruses also highlights the need for expanded surveillance in a Canadian swine population that has long been overlooked, and may have implications for vaccine design.

Evidence of Intercontinental Spread and Uncommon Variants of Low-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Viruses in Ducks Overwintering in Guatemala

Over a hundred species of aquatic birds overwinter in Central America's wetlands, providing opportunities for the transmission of influenza A viruses (IAVs). To date, limited IAV surveillance in Central America hinders our understanding of the evolution and ecology of IAVs in migratory hosts within the Western Hemisphere. To address this gap, we sequenced the genomes of 68 virus isolates obtained from ducks overwintering along Guatemala's Pacific Coast during 2010 to 2013. High genetic diversity was observed, including 9 hemagglutinin (HA) subtypes, 7 neuraminidase (NA) subtypes, and multiple avian IAV lineages that have been detected at low levels (<1%) in North America. An unusually large number of viruses with the rare H14 subtype were identified (n = 14) over two consecutive seasons, the highest number of H14 viruses ever reported in a single location, providing evidence for a possible H14 source population located outside routinely sampled regions of North America. Viruses from Guatemala were positioned within minor clades divergent from the main North American lineage on phylogenies inferred for the H3, H4, N2, N8, PA, NP, and NS segments. A time-scaled phylogeny indicates that a Eurasian virus PA segment introduced into the Americas in the early 2000s disseminated to Guatemala during ~2007.1 to 2010.4 (95% highest posterior density [HPD]). Overall, the diversity detected in Guatemala in overwintering ducks highlights the potential role of Central America in the evolution of diverse IAV lineages in the Americas, including divergent variants rarely detected in the United States, and the importance of increasing IAV surveillance throughout Central America. IMPORTANCE Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic H7N3, H5Nx, and H7N8 avian influenza viruses in North America were introduced by migratory birds, underscoring the importance of understanding how wild birds contribute to the dissemination and evolution of IAVs in nature. At least four of the main IAV duck host species in North America migrate through or overwinter within a narrow strip of Central America, providing opportunities for diverse IAV lineages to mix and exchange gene segments. By obtaining whole-genome sequences of 68 IAV isolates collected from migratory waterfowl in Guatemala (2010 to 2013), the largest data set available from Central America to date, we detected extensive viral diversity, including gene variants rarely found in North America and gene segments of Eurasian origin. Our findings highlight the need for increased IAV surveillance across the geographical span of bird migration flyways, including Neotropical regions that have been vastly undersampled to date.

Transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in humans and swine in backyard farms in Tumbes, Peru

Objectives

We aimed to determine the frequency of pH1N1 transmission between humans and swine on backyard farms in Tumbes, Peru.

Design

Two‐year serial cross‐sectional study comprising four sampling periods: March 2009 (pre‐pandemic), October 2009 (peak of the pandemic in Peru), April 2010 (1st post‐pandemic period), and October 2011 (2nd post‐pandemic period).

Sample

Backyard swine serum, tracheal swabs, and lung sample were collected during each sampling period.

Main outcome measures

We assessed current and past pH1N1 infection in swine through serological testing, virus culture, and RT‐PCR and compared the results with human incidence data from a population‐based active surveillance cohort study in Peru.

Results

Among 1303 swine sampled, the antibody prevalence to pH1N1 was 0% pre‐pandemic, 8% at the peak of the human pandemic (October 2009), and 24% in April 2010 and 1% in October 2011 (post‐pandemic sampling periods). Trends in swine seropositivity paralleled those seen in humans in Tumbes. The pH1N1 virus was isolated from three pigs during the peak of the pandemic. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that these viruses likely represent two separate human‐to‐swine transmission events in backyard farm settings.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that human‐to‐swine pH1N1 transmission occurred during the pandemic among backyard farms in Peru, emphasizing the importance of interspecies transmission in backyard pig populations. Continued surveillance for influenza viruses in backyard farms is warranted.

Origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in swine in Mexico

Asia is considered an important source of influenza A virus (IAV) pandemics, owing to large, diverse viral reservoirs in poultry and swine. However, the zoonotic origins of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic virus (pdmH1N1) remain unclear, due to conflicting evidence from swine and humans. There is strong evidence that the first human outbreak of pdmH1N1 occurred in Mexico in early 2009. However, no related swine viruses have been detected in Mexico or any part of the Americas, and to date the most closely related ancestor viruses were identified in Asian swine. Here, we use 58 new whole-genome sequences from IAVs collected in Mexican swine to establish that the swine virus responsible for the 2009 pandemic evolved in central Mexico. This finding highlights how the 2009 pandemic arose from a region not considered a pandemic risk, owing to an expansion of IAV diversity in swine resulting from long-distance live swine trade.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16777.001

In 2009 a new influenza virus jumped from pigs to humans and spread very rapidly, causing an initial outbreak in Mexico and becoming a global pandemic in just a few months. Although the most straightforward explanation is that the virus originated in swine in Mexico, several studies suggested that this was unlikely because key genetic components of the virus had never been detected in the Americas. Determining the source of the disease is critical for predicting and preparing for future influenza pandemics.

Mena, Nelson et al. sought to better characterize the genetic diversity of influenza viruses in Mexican swine by obtaining the entire genetic sequences of 58 viruses collected from swine in Mexico, including some from previously unsampled regions in central Mexico. The sequences revealed extensive diversity among the influenza viruses circulating in Mexican swine. Several viruses included genetic segments that originated from viruses from Eurasia (the landmass containing Europe and Asia) and had not previously been detected in the Americas. The new sequences contained key genetic components of the 2009 pandemic virus. Furthermore, the sequences suggest that viruses with a similar genetic composition to the 2009 pandemic virus have been circulating in pigs in central-west Mexico for more than a decade. Thus, this region is the most likely source of the virus that started the 2009 pandemic.

Mena, Nelson et al. also found that the movement of viruses from Eurasia and the United States into Mexico closely follows the direction of the global trade of live swine. This highlights the critical role that animal trading plays in bringing together diverse viruses from different continents, which can then combine and generate new pandemic viruses.

A potential next step is to perform experiments that investigate how well the swine viruses can replicate and pass between different animal models. Comparing the results of such experiments with the findings presented by Mena, Nelson et al. could identify factors that make the viruses more likely to spread to humans and produce a pandemic.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16777.002

Influenza A Viruses of Human Origin in Swine, Brazil

Multiple divergent lineages challenge the design of cross-protective vaccines and highlight the need for additional surveillance.

The evolutionary origins of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus that caused the first outbreak of the 2009 pandemic in Mexico remain unclear, highlighting the lack of swine surveillance in Latin American countries. Although Brazil has one of the largest swine populations in the world, influenza was not thought to be endemic in Brazil’s swine until the major outbreaks of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in 2009. Through phylogenetic analysis of whole-genome sequences of influenza viruses of the H1N1, H1N2, and H3N2 subtypes collected in swine in Brazil during 2009–2012, we identified multiple previously uncharacterized influenza viruses of human seasonal H1N2 and H3N2 virus origin that have circulated undetected in swine for more than a decade. Viral diversity has further increased in Brazil through reassortment between co-circulating viruses, including A(H1N1)pdm09. The circulation of multiple divergent hemagglutinin lineages challenges the design of effective cross-protective vaccines and highlights the need for additional surveillance.

Phylogeography of Influenza A(H3N2) Virus in Peru, 2010-2012

It remains unclear whether lineages of influenza A(H3N2) virus can persist in the tropics and seed temperate areas. We used viral gene sequence data sampled from Peru to test this source-sink model for a Latin American country. Viruses were obtained during 2010-2012 from influenza surveillance cohorts in Cusco, Tumbes, Puerto Maldonado, and Lima. Specimens positive for influenza A(H3N2) virus were randomly selected and underwent hemagglutinin sequencing and phylogeographic analyses. Analysis of 389 hemagglutinin sequences from Peru and 2,192 global sequences demonstrated interseasonal extinction of Peruvian lineages. Extensive mixing occurred with global clades, but some spatial structure was observed at all sites; this structure was weakest in Lima and Puerto Maldonado, indicating that these locations may experience greater viral traffic. The broad diversity and co-circulation of many simultaneous lineages of H3N2 virus in Peru suggests that this country should not be overlooked as a potential source for novel pandemic strains.

The Genetic Diversity of Influenza A Viruses in Wild Birds in Peru

Our understanding of the global ecology of avian influenza A viruses (AIVs) is impeded by historically low levels of viral surveillance in Latin America. Through sampling and whole-genome sequencing of 31 AIVs from wild birds in Peru, we identified 10 HA subtypes (H1-H4, H6-H7, H10-H13) and 8 NA subtypes (N1-N3, N5-N9). The majority of Peruvian AIVs were closely related to AIVs found in North America. However, unusual reassortants, including a H13 virus containing a PA segment related to extremely divergent Argentinian viruses, suggest that substantial AIV diversity circulates undetected throughout South America.

Genomic and evolutionary inferences between American and global strains of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has caused severe economic losses both recently in the United States (US) and historically throughout Europe and Asia. Traditionally, analysis of the spike gene has been used to determine phylogenetic relationships between PEDV strains. We determined the complete genomes of 93 PEDV field samples from US swine and analyzed the data in conjunction with complete genome sequences available from GenBank (n=126) to determine the most variable genomic areas. Our results indicate high levels of variation within the ORF1 and spike regions while the C-terminal domains of structural genes were highly conserved. Analysis of the Receptor Binding Domains in the spike gene revealed a limited number of amino acid substitutions in US strains compared to Asian strains. Phylogenetic analysis of the complete genome sequence data revealed high rates of recombination, resulting in differing evolutionary patterns in phylogenies inferred for the spike region versus whole genomes. These finding suggest that significant genetic events outside of the spike region have contributed to the evolution of PEDV.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Influenza A Viruses in US Exhibition Swine

The role of exhibition swine in influenza A virus transmission was recently demonstrated by >300 infections with influenza A(H3N2) variant viruses among individuals who attended agricultural fairs. Through active influenza A virus surveillance in US exhibition swine and whole-genome sequencing of 380 isolates, we demonstrate that exhibition swine are actively involved in the evolution of influenza A viruses, including zoonotic strains. First, frequent introduction of influenza A viruses from commercial swine populations provides new genetic diversity in exhibition pigs each year locally. Second, genomic reassortment between viruses cocirculating in exhibition swine increases viral diversity. Third, viral migration between exhibition swine in neighboring states demonstrates that movements of exhibition pigs contributes to the spread of genetic diversity. The unexpected frequency of viral exchange between commercial and exhibition swine raises questions about the understudied interface between these populations. Overall, the complexity of viral evolution in exhibition swine indicates that novel viruses are likely to continually reemerge, presenting threats to humans.

Equine influenza A(H3N8) virus isolated from Bactrian camel, Mongolia

Because little is known about the ecology of influenza viruses in camels, 460 nasal swab specimens were collected from healthy (no overt illness) Bactrian camels in Mongolia during 2012. One specimen was positive for influenza A virus (A/camel/Mongolia/335/2012[H3N8]), which is phylogenetically related to equine influenza A(H3N8) viruses and probably represents natural horse-to-camel transmission.

Global migration of influenza A viruses in swine

The complex and unresolved evolutionary origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic exposed major gaps in our knowledge of the global spatial ecology and evolution of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs). Here we undertake an expansive phylogenetic analysis of swIAV sequence data and demonstrate that the global live swine trade strongly predicts the spatial dissemination of swIAVs, with Europe and North America acting as sources of viruses in Asian countries. In contrast, China has the world’s largest swine population but is not a major exporter of live swine, and is not an important source of swIAVs in neighboring Asian countries or globally. A meta-population simulation model incorporating trade data predicts that the global ecology of swIAVs is more complex than previously thought, and the US and China’s large swine populations are unlikely to be representative of swIAV diversity in their respective geographic regions, requiring independent surveillance efforts throughout Latin America and Asia.

Reverse zoonosis of influenza to swine: new perspectives on the human-animal interface

The origins of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in swine are unknown, highlighting gaps in our understanding of influenza A virus (IAV) ecology and evolution. We review how recently strengthened influenza virus surveillance in pigs has revealed that influenza virus transmission from humans to swine is far more frequent than swine-to-human zoonosis, and is central in seeding swine globally with new viral diversity. The scale of global human-to-swine transmission represents the largest 'reverse zoonosis' of a pathogen documented to date. Overcoming the bias towards perceiving swine as sources of human viruses, rather than recipients, is key to understanding how the bidirectional nature of the human-animal interface produces influenza threats to both hosts.

Molecular epidemiology of influenza A/H3N2 viruses circulating in Mexico from 2003 to 2012

In this work, nineteen influenza A/H3N2 viruses isolated in Mexico between 2003 and 2012 were studied. Our findings show that different human A/H3N2 viral lineages co-circulate within a same season and can also persist locally in between different influenza seasons, increasing the chance for genetic reassortment events. A novel minor cluster was also identified, named here as Korea, that circulated worldwide during 2003. Frequently, phylogenetic characterization did not correlate with the determined antigenic identity, supporting the need for the use of molecular evolutionary tools additionally to antigenic data for the surveillance and characterization of viral diversity during each flu season. This work represents the first long-term molecular epidemiology study of influenza A/H3N2 viruses in Mexico based on the complete genomic sequences and contributes to the monitoring of evolutionary trends of A/H3N2 influenza viruses within North and Central America.

Population dynamics of cocirculating swine influenza A viruses in the United States from 2009 to 2012

BACKGROUND

Understanding the ecology and evolution of influenza A viruses (IAV) in mammalian hosts is critical to reduce disease burden in production animals and lower zoonotic infection risk in humans. Recent advances in influenza surveillance in US swine populations allow for timely epidemiological, phylogenetic, and virological analyses that monitor emergence of novel viruses and assess changes in viral population dynamics.

METHODS

To better understand IAV in the North American swine population, we undertook a phylogenetic analysis of 1075 HA, 1049 NA, and 1040 M sequences of IAV isolated from US swine during 2009-2012 through voluntary and anonymous submissions to the US Department of Agriculture IAV swine surveillance system.

RESULTS

Analyses revealed changes in population dynamics among multiple clades of A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and A/H1N2 cocirculating in US swine populations during 2009-2012. Viral isolates were categorized into one of seven genetically and antigenically distinct hemagglutinin lineages: H1α, H1β, H1γ, H1δ1, H1δ2, H1pdm09, and H3 cluster IV. There was an increase in occurrence of H1δ1 in samples submitted, with a concurrent decrease in H1pdm09. H3 cluster IV exhibited increasing diversification, warranting a re-evaluation of phylogenetic nomenclature criteria. Although H3N2 represented 25% of identified viruses, this subtype was reported in increasing proportion of sequenced isolates since late 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

Surveillance and reporting of IAV in US swine have increased since 2009, and we demonstrate a period of expanded viral diversity. These data may be used to inform intervention strategies of vaccine and diagnostic updates and changes in swine health management.

The role of viral introductions in sustaining community-based HIV epidemics in rural Uganda: evidence from spatial clustering, phylogenetics, and egocentric transmission models

BACKGROUND

It is often assumed that local sexual networks play a dominant role in HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of this study was to determine the extent to which continued HIV transmission in rural communities--home to two-thirds of the African population--is driven by intra-community sexual networks versus viral introductions from outside of communities.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analyzed the spatial dynamics of HIV transmission in rural Rakai District, Uganda, using data from a cohort of 14,594 individuals within 46 communities. We applied spatial clustering statistics, viral phylogenetics, and probabilistic transmission models to quantify the relative contribution of viral introductions into communities versus community- and household-based transmission to HIV incidence. Individuals living in households with HIV-incident (n = 189) or HIV-prevalent (n = 1,597) persons were 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7-3.7) times more likely to be HIV infected themselves compared to the population in general, but spatial clustering outside of households was relatively weak and was confined to distances <500 m. Phylogenetic analyses of gag and env genes suggest that chains of transmission frequently cross community boundaries. A total of 95 phylogenetic clusters were identified, of which 44% (42/95) were two individuals sharing a household. Among the remaining clusters, 72% (38/53) crossed community boundaries. Using the locations of self-reported sexual partners, we estimate that 39% (95% CI: 34%-42%) of new viral transmissions occur within stable household partnerships, and that among those infected by extra-household sexual partners, 62% (95% CI: 55%-70%) are infected by sexual partners from outside their community. These results rely on the representativeness of the sample and the quality of self-reported partnership data and may not reflect HIV transmission patterns outside of Rakai.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that HIV introductions into communities are common and account for a significant proportion of new HIV infections acquired outside of households in rural Uganda, though the extent to which this is true elsewhere in Africa remains unknown. Our results also suggest that HIV prevention efforts should be implemented at spatial scales broader than the community and should target key populations likely responsible for introductions into communities.