Forecast of labour force in Poland to the year 2020: methodology and results

"In 1995 the Labour Statistics Division of the Central Statistical Office (CSO) started methodological work on the preparation of a forecast of the labour force in Poland to the year 2020.... Variant ¿intermediate' assumes a slow reconstruction of the economic activity of population from the level of the period 1978-88 (census 1978 and census 1988). The main part of this ¿reconstruction' will take place in the years 1995-2010. The greatest anticipated changes concern youths (18-24 years), persons of immobility age (males 45-64 years and females 45-59 years) and the first groups of the retirement age. Variant ¿maximum' assumes that the anticipated ¿reconstruction' labour force participation rate will be faster (compared with variant ¿intermediate')."

From state to market: the Nicaraguan labour market for health personnel

Few countries in Latin America have experienced in such a short period the shift from a socialist government and centrally planned economy to a liberal market economy as Nicaragua. The impact of such a change in the health field has been supported by the quest for reform of the health system and the involvement of external financial agencies aimed at leading the process. However, this change has not been reflected in the planning of human resources for health. Trends in education reflect the policies of past decades. The Ministry of Health is the main employer of health personnel in the country, but in recent years its capacity to recruit new personnel has diminished. Currently, various categories of health personnel are looking for new opportunities in a changing labour environment where new actors are appearing and claiming an influential role. It may take more than political willingness from the government to redefine the new priorities in the field of human resources for health and subsequently turn it into positive action.

Aging of the population in Japan and its implications to the other Asian countries

"The speed at which Japan's population is aging is mainly a result of its rapid economic development, which is common to many other East Asian countries. Two aspects of the aging of the population are an increasing share of the elderly and a declining labor force. The larger the number of elderly, the more the transfer of income between generations, and the fiscal burden rises. The shrinking workforce will lower the economic growth directly, and indirectly through the falling saving ratio. However, the negative impacts from aging can largely be offset by stimulating participation of older persons in the labor force."

Labor-force change exaggerated. One-third of new workers will still be white men

The author examines labor force trends and participation rates since 1990 for ethnic groups in the United States. He concludes that "over the next 15 years,...several demographic trends will alter the American labor force. The overall number of workers will grow more slowly, and a more diverse workplace will emerge. In 1990, non-Hispanic white men made up 43 percent of the labor force. In the year 2005, they will make up 38 percent."

[[Changes in the labor force in Taiwan: 1979-1990]]

"The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of age composition on labor force participation rate as well as the change in age-specific labor force participation rate for both males and females in Taiwan.... Data [are] obtained from the Taiwan Manpower Utilization Survey from 1979 to 1990. Results from the standardization analyses indicated that the age composition change from 1979 to 1990 has a leveling effect on the labor force participation rate (LFPR) for both males and females. During the period of time, rate of male labor force participation has...decreased while female labor force participation rate has...increased and then [leveled] off." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Predicted changes, in the years 1990-2010, in the state and structure of productive age population in Poland and in selected European countries and their consequences for external migrations

Trends in the number and structure of working-age populations in Europe and Poland are projected for the period 1990-2010. Among their predictions, the authors anticipate that "in Western Europe...the working age population will be reduced by...2%. In both Southern and Northern Europe the working age population will grow...by 1.3% and 3.6% [respectively]. On the other hand, in Eastern Europe the population concerned will grow substantially in those years: this growth is estimated [at]...9.1%." A 14.7 percent increase is predicted for Poland.

Three challenges of China's population in the 1990s

China will encounter 3 challenges of its population problem in the 1990s. The 1st is the huge number of people born or population increase each year. The 3rd baby boom, which started at the mid-1980s, will last until abound 1997. The women entering into the age of peak childbearing (23 years old) exceed 11 million each year with an upper range of about 13 million. IN 1992, the number of women of fecund ages (22-29) in the whole country will reach 124 million, the largest number of fertile women in history. The net increase of population will be from 15.5 to 17.0 million for each hear. What is more serious is that the momentum of population increase will continue, instead of being checked by the year 2000. The next are the continuous increase of the aged population of 65 and over and the growing tendency of population aging ahead of economic development. China is a developing socialist country, huge in population, weak in economic development, with less-developed science, culture, and education. However, as a result of the decline in the proportion of children to the total population due to the decline in the birth rate in the 1970s, China's population has become an adult population from a young one in terms of the age structure, and will be an aged one very soon. China is facing the challenge of aging under economically less developed conditions. For developed countries, it took 80 years for the proportion of the aged population of 65 and over to increase from 7% to 17%; for China, it has taken only 40 years. It will certainly bring about a series of problems and difficulties upon the society to cope with such a huge number of elderly in an underdeveloped economy. The 3rd challenge is the increasing pressure on employment due to the continuous growth of working-age population (15-64). It is estimated that the working-age population will increase to 858 million by 2000, 20 million more than the sum of working-age population in all of the developed countries; and to 977 million by 2020. Since in a short period of time it is difficult to change the situation of labor supply greater than demand, the pressure on employment will continue to increase, with more than 15 million people entering the labor force or waiting for jobs each year. In particular, the rural surplus labor force will reach 233 million by 2000. This is signaled by the huge number of farmers who have rushed into big cities for work in recent years. It is far beyond the capability of the government to employ such a huge number of laborers because it would require an investment of at least 3600 billion yuan for fixed assets. It seems to me that the 3 population challenges stated above are not isolated but interact to restrict the process of China's economic and social development. The way out lies in developing production and doing a better job of economic construction, while also adopting comprehensive measures to make further efforts in practicing family planning to better control the overrapid growth of population and improve the quality of human resources.

[Population and employment in Latin America]

Both high rates of labor force growth and large dependency ratios are forecast in this paper for the countries of Latin America in the 1990s. The author concludes that "population and employment problems must be given high priority in bilateral negotiations and/or with international organizations when deciding upon structural adjustment strategies." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

U.S. Bureau of the Census: facing the future labor shortage

"This article begins with a brief overview of the [U.S.] Census Bureau's preparations for the future, then discusses the demographic and social changes that are affecting the national labor force, from which the Census Bureau hires its workers. The final section considers how the bureau and its mission are affected by these changes."

Functional forms and the relevance of contiguous migration in the study of migration and employment growth

The authors examine internal migration in the United States and emphasize the importance of decomposing total migration into contiguous and noncontiguous migration flows when analyzing employment change. "In this study, a simultaneous-equation model containing two equations, one for migration and the other for employment growth, has been specified in a general form and estimated by the 2SLS method for total, contiguous and noncontiguous migration flows. Results obtained from the use of 1970 Census data show that noncontiguous migration behaves significantly [differently] from contiguous migration, and that noncontiguous migration, rather than total migration, should be used for the study of factors affecting interstate migration. Results also indicate that the log-linear functional form commonly used in empirical studies cannot be accepted statistically."

Demographic and economic aspects of the Italian second generation within migration movement

"The essay attempts to estimate the size and the characteristics of expatriating and repatriating young people (aged 0-20) in relation to the Italian demographic structure and recent migration movement. Two working definitions are used, 'internal second generation' and 'second generation abroad', usually originating from the same inland regions." Government statistical sources and local level resident registries are analyzed. Tables present information concerning the numbers of expatriates and repatriates for the country as a whole for the years 1946-1984 and net migration figures for regions within Italy for the decade 1961-1971. The authors calculate the percentages of expatriates and repatriates during the years 1958-1984 who were aged 14 and under and 65 and over and "the migratory mobility of youth categories is analysed. In the areas of high intra and out-migration flows, considerable differences in migration rates and natural growth rate are noticed. In some areas a systematic ageing of the population, a decrease in the labour force and a high dependency index are found." Potential socioeconomic and demographic consequences of the impact of migration on the dependency burden in Italy are considered. (summary in FRE)

Population trends and employment in the European CMEA countries

The trends in population growth and employment in the European member countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) as a whole were, in past decades, characterized by a relatively fast rate. At the same time, increases in the rate of employment exceeded in most of these countries, as a consequence of the activation of initial large reserves of the social labor force, increases in the population of reproductive age. In the 2nd 1/2 of the 1970s and in the early 1980s, the growth rate of labor resources was slower in most European CMEA countries due to demographic reasons. In view of the high rate of the economically active population, this was reflected in increased pressure for raising the productivity of labor. Some countries (Hungary, Poland) registered an absolute decrease in employment during that time.