Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 among patients in the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre primary care network: a cross-sectional study

Déterminants individuels et sociaux du test de dépistage du SRAS-CoV-2 et de l’obtention d’un résultat positif en Ontario, au Canada: une étude populationnelle

Contexte:

Optimiser la réponse de la santé publique pour diminuer le fardeau de la COVID-19 nécessite la caractérisation de l’hétérogénéité du risque posé par la maladie à l’échelle de la population. Cependant, l’hétérogénéité du dépistage du SRAS-CoV-2 peut fausser les estimations selon le modèle d’étude analytique utilisé. Notre objectif était d’explorer les biais collisionneurs dans le cadre d’une vaste étude portant sur les déterminants de la maladie et d’évaluer les déterminants individuels, environnementaux et sociaux du dépistage et du diagnostic du SRAS-CoV-2 parmi les résidents de l’Ontario, au Canada.

Méthodes:

Nous avons exploré la présence potentielle de biais collisionneurs et caractérisé les déterminants individuels, environnementaux et sociaux de l’obtention d’un test de dépistage et d’un résultat positif à la présence de l’infection au SRAS-CoV-2 à l’aide d’analyses transversales parmi les 14,7 millions de personnes vivant dans la collectivité en Ontario, au Canada. Parmi les personnes ayant obtenu un diagnostic, nous avons utilisé des études analytiques distinctes afin de comparer les prédicteurs pour les personnes d’obtenir un résultat de test de dépistage positif plutôt que négatif, pour les personnes symptomatiques d’obtenir un résultat de test de dépistage positif plutôt que négatif et pour les personnes d’obtenir un résultat de test de dépistage positif plutôt que de ne pas obtenir un résultat positif (c.-à-d., obtenir un résultat de test de dépistage négatif ou ne pas obtenir de test de dépistage). Nos analyses comprennent des tests de dépistage réalisés entre le 1er mars et le 20 juin 2020.

Résultats:

Sur 14 695 579 personnes, nous avons constaté que 758 691 d’entre elles ont passé un test de dépistage du SRAS-CoV-2, parmi lesquelles 25 030 (3,3 %) ont obtenu un résultat positif. Plus la probabilité d’obtenir un test de dépistage s’éloignait de zéro, plus la variabilité généralement observée dans la probabilité d’un diagnostic était grande parmi les modèles d’études analytiques, particulièrement en ce qui a trait aux facteurs individuels. Nous avons constaté que la variabilité dans l’obtention d’un test de dépistage était moins importante en fonction des déterminants sociaux dans l’ensemble des études analytiques. Les facteurs tels que le fait d’habiter dans une région ayant une plus haute densité des ménages (rapport de cotes corrigé 1,86; intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95 % 1,75–1,98), une plus grande proportion de travailleurs essentiels (rapport de cotes corrigé 1,58; IC à 95 % 1,48–1,69), une population atteignant un plus faible niveau de scolarité (rapport de cotes corrigé 1,33; IC à 95 % 1,26–1,41) et une plus grande proportion d’immigrants récents (rapport de cotes corrigé 1,10; IC à 95 % 1,05–1,15), étaient systématiquement corrélés à une probabilité plus importante d’obtenir un diagnostic de SRAS-CoV-2, peu importe le modèle d’étude analytique employé.

Interprétation:

Lorsque la capacité de dépister est limitée, nos résultats suggèrent que les facteurs de risque peuvent être estimés plus adéquatement en utilisant des comparateurs populationnels plutôt que des comparateurs de résultat négatif au test de dépistage. Optimiser la lutte contre la COVID-19 nécessite des investissements dans des interventions structurelles déployées de façon suffisante et adaptées à l’hétérogénéité des déterminants sociaux du risque, dont le surpeuplement des ménages, l’occupation professionnelle et le racisme structurel.

Citizens, doctors, politicians - who´s an expert in times of COVID-19? A survey in Austria and Germany

Background

This study aimed to explore which measures and risk factors for a COVID − 19 infection are considered most important in the general population, health experts and policymakers and to assess the level of agreement across the groups from Austria and Germany.

Methods

A two-phased survey was conducted, participants were matched according to age and gender. Three different groups were asked which measures they considered most relevant in reducing a COVID-19 transmission, to determine which factors contribute most to the risk of disease, and to evaluate the level of agreement in the assessment of risk factor relevance for (a) the transmission of the disease and (b) the risk of a severe course of COVID-19.

Results

Risk factors for an infection that were selected from all three groups were immunosuppression/deficiency, cancer, chronic lung disease, smoking, age and working as a health care professional. Interrater agreement per population was only poor to slight and results were highly heterogeneous.

Conclusions

Our survey shows a broad spectrum of opinions and the associated general uncertainty about the risk factors for infection and a severe course of disease across the groups. Profound knowledge of politicians and experts is of high relevance to provide the public with valid information to ensure cooperation fighting the pandemic.

Trial registration

https://apps.who.int/trialsearch/ (ID: DRKS00022166). Registered 15 June 2020.

Relationship of SARS-CoV-2 and chronic diseases of nutritional origin

The worldwide spread of the virus has claimed multiple lives, especially in vulnerable groups. Therefore, an investigation was carried out to present a viable solution for health personnel using the “JES” algorithm. The present study used the research to determine the possible complications presented by the sick individual, providing a viable and accessible healthcare personnel solution through the proposed “JES” algorithm. A non-experimental, descriptive, correlational, and explanatory research is presented. According to pathologies of interest, the articles were taken virtually from scientific journals present in Google Scholar and PubMed. The excluded publications were: articles that do not detail the established protocol for detecting SARS-CoV-2, studies that do not present a significant number of people with Covid-19 disease, articles that the person has the covid-19 disease but no underlying diseases of nutritional origin. It focused on the vulnerable or higher risk population group, including scientific information from children (over five years old), adults (over 18 years old), and older adults (over 65 years old) found in countries of the Asian and American continents. The R program analyzed the scientific articles using the ggplot2 package with a pie and bar diagram. A higher prevalence in men than women (56% vs. 44%) stood out. Likewise, arterial hypertension was presented in the first place with 40.82%, followed by diabetes with 30.61%, obesity with 12.24%, overweight and dyslipidemia with 6.12%, malnutrition with 4.08%. There was a higher prevalence of stable individuals (29%) within the health facility than those admitted to the ICU (20%). Adults with 69.39%, followed by older adults with 16.33%, and mixed ages with 14.29%. Comorbidities stand out as risk factors in people infected with SARS-CoV-2, regardless of age. A more significant contagion was observed in the male versus female population; since men do not develop a rapid immune response and have a high content of cytokines that at the time of infection are released more quickly and can cause more significant damage

Sociodemographic characteristics and transmission risk factors in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 before and during the lockdown in France

Background

The efficacy of lockdown in containing the COVID-19 pandemic has been reported in different studies. However, the impact on sociodemographic characteristics of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 has not been evaluated. The aim of this study was to describe the changes in sociodemographic characteristics of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 and to compare the transmission risk factors of COVID-19 before and during lockdown in France.

Methods

An observational retrospective study was conducted in a University Hospital in Paris, France. Data from patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in the Infectious Diseases Department between February 26 and May 11, 2020 were collected. The study population was divided into 2 groups: group A of patients infected before lockdown, and group B of patients infected during lockdown, considering a maximum incubation period of 14 days. Sociodemographic characteristics and transmission risk factors were compared between the 2 groups using Student’s t-test for continuous variables and Chi-2 test or Fisher exact test for categorical variables.

Results

Three hundred eighty-three patients were included in the study, 305 (79.6%) in group A and 78 (20.4%) in group B. Patients in group A were significantly younger (60.0 versus (vs) 66.5 years (p = 0.03)). The professionally active population was larger in group A (44.3% vs 24.4%). There were significantly more non-French-speaking people in group B (16.7% vs 6.6%, p <  0.01). Most patients from group A had individual accommodation (92.8% vs 74.4%, p <  0.01). Contact with a relative was the main transmission risk factor in both groups (24.6% vs 33.3%, p = 0.16). Recent travel and large gathering were found only in group A. The proportion of people living in disadvantaged conditions, such as homeless people or people living in social housing, was significantly higher in group B (11.5% vs 4.3%, p = 0.03) as was the proportion of institutionalized individuals (14.1% vs 3.0%, p <  0.01).

Conclusions

In this study conducted in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in Paris, France, the likelihood of being infected despite the lockdown was higher for people who do not speak French, live in social housing, are homeless or institutionalized. Targeted measures have to be implemented to protect these populations.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality during the first epidemic wave in Madurai, south India: a prospective, active surveillance study

Background

SARS-CoV-2 has spread substantially within India over multiple waves of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, the risk factors and disease burden associated with COVID-19 in India remain poorly understood. We aimed to assess predictors of infection and mortality within an active surveillance study, and to probe the completeness of case and mortality surveillance.

Methods

In this prospective, active surveillance study, we used data collected under expanded programmatic surveillance testing for SARS-CoV-2 in the district of Madurai, Tamil Nadu, India (population of 3 266 000 individuals). Prospective testing via RT-PCR was done in individuals with fever or acute respiratory symptoms as well as returning travellers, frontline workers, contacts of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, residents of containment zones, patients undergoing medical procedures, and other risk groups. Standardised data collection on symptoms and chronic comorbid conditions was done as part of routine intake. Additionally, seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G was assessed via a cross-sectional survey recruiting adults across 38 clusters within Madurai District from Oct 19, 2020, to Nov 5, 2020. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for positive RT-PCR results comparing individuals by age, sex, comorbid conditions, and aspects of clinical presentation. We estimated case-fatality ratios (CFRs) over the 30-day period following RT-PCR testing stratified by the same variables, and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for death associated with age, sex, and comorbidity. We estimated infection-fatality ratios (IFRs) on the basis of age-specific seroprevalence.

Results

Between May 20, 2020, and Oct 31, 2020, 13·5 diagnostic tests were done per 100 inhabitants within Madurai, as compared to 7·9 tests per 100 inhabitants throughout India. From a total of 440 253 RT-PCR tests, 15 781 (3·6%) SARS-CoV-2 infections were identified, with 8720 (5·4%) of 160 273 being positive among individuals with symptoms, and 7061 (2·5%) of 279 980 being positive among individuals without symptoms, at the time of presentation. Estimated aORs for symptomatic RT-PCR-confirmed infection increased continuously by a factor of 4·3 from ages 0–4 years to 80 years or older. By contrast, risk of asymptomatic RT-PCR-confirmed infection did not differ across ages 0–44 years, and thereafter increased by a factor of 1·6 between ages 45–49 years and 80 years or older. Seroprevalence was 40·1% (95% CI 35·8–44·6) at age 15 years or older by the end of the study period, indicating that RT-PCR clinical testing and surveillance testing identified only 1·4% (1·3–1·6%) of all infections in this age group. Among RT-PCR-confirmed cases, older age, male sex, and history of cancer, diabetes, other endocrine disorders, hypertension, other chronic circulatory disorders, respiratory disorders, and chronic kidney disease were each associated with elevated risk of mortality. The CFR among RT-PCR-confirmed cases was 2·4% (2·2–2·6); after age standardisation. At age 15 years or older, the IFR based on reported deaths was 0·043% (0·039–0·049), with reported deaths being only 11·0% (8·2–14·5) of the expected count.

Interpretation

In a large-scale SARS-CoV-2 surveillance programme in Madurai, India, we identified equal risk of asymptomatic infection among children, teenagers, and working-age adults, and increasing risk of infection and death associated with older age and comorbidities. Establishing whether surveillance practices or differences in infection severity account for gaps between observed and expected mortality is of crucial importance to establishing the burden of COVID-19 in India.

Funding

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Science Foundation, and the National Institute of General Medical Sciences.

Translation

For the Hindi translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Prevalence of and factors associated with COVID-19 diagnosis in symptomatic patients followed in general practices in Germany between March 2020 and March 2021

Aims

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of and the factors associated with the diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in symptomatic patients followed in general practices in Germany between March 2020 and March 2021.

Methods

Symptomatic patients tested for COVID-19 and followed in one of 962 general practices in Germany from March 2020 to March 2021 were included in this study. Covariates included sex, age, and comorbidities present in at least 3% of the population. The association between these factors and the diagnosis of COVID-19 was analyzed using an adjusted logistic regression model.

Results

A total of 301,290 patients tested for COVID-19 were included in this study (54.7% women; mean [SD] age 44.6 [18.5] years). The prevalence of COVID-19 was 13.8% in this sample. Male sex and older age were positively and significantly associated with COVID-19. In terms of comorbidities, the strongest positive associations with COVID-19 were observed for cardiac arrhythmias, depression, and obesity. There was also a negative relationship between the odds of being diagnosed with COVID-19 and several conditions such as chronic sinusitis, asthma, and anxiety disorders.

Conclusions

Approximately 14% of symptomatic patients tested for COVID-19 were diagnosed with COVID-19 in German general practices from March 2020 to March 2021.

A History of Cerebrovascular Disease Is Independently Associated with Increased Morbidity and Mortality in Patients with COVID-19: A Cohort Study of 369,563 COVID-19 Cases in the USA

Objectives

We set out to evaluate the risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and subsequent cerebrovascular disease (CVD) in the population with a prior diagnosis of CVD within the past 10 years.

Methods

We utilized the TriNetX Analytics Network to query 369,563 CO­VID-19 cases up to December 30, 2020. We created 8 cohorts of patients with COVID-19 diagnosis based on a previous diagnosis of CVD. We measured the odds ratios, relative risks, risk differences for hospitalizations, ICU/critical care services, intubation, mortality, and CVD recurrence within 90 days of COVID-19 diagnosis, compared to a propensity-matched cohort with no prior history of CVD within 90 days of COVID-19 diagnosis.

Results

369,563 patients had a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 with a subset of 22,497 (6.09%) patients with a prior diagnosis of CVD within 10 years. All cohorts with a CVD diagnosis had an increased risk of hospitalization, critical care services, and mortality within 90 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. Additionally, the data demonstrate that any history of CVD is associated with significantly increased odds of subsequent CVD post-COVID-19 compared to a matched control.

Conclusions

CVD, a known complication of CO­VID-19, is more frequent in patients with a prior history of CVD. Patients with any previous diagnosis of CVD are at higher risks of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 infection. In patients admitted to the ED due to COVID-19 symptoms, these risk factors should be promptly identified as delayed or missed risk stratification and could lead to an ineffective and untimely diagnosis of subsequent CVD, which would lead to protracted hospitalization and poor prognosis.

Mechanisms of socioeconomic differences in COVID-19 screening and hospitalizations

Background

Social and ecological differences in early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic screening and outcomes have been documented, but the means by which these differences have arisen are not well understood.

Objective

To characterize socioeconomic and chronic disease-related mechanisms underlying these differences.

Design

Observational cohort study.

Setting

Outpatient and emergency care.

Patients

12900 Cleveland Clinic Health System patients referred for SARS-CoV-2 testing between March 17 and April 15, 2020.

Interventions

Nasopharyngeal PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Measurements

Test location (emergency department, ED, vs. outpatient care), COVID-19 symptoms, test positivity and hospitalization among positive cases.

Results

We identified six classes of symptoms, ranging in test positivity from 3.4% to 23%. Non-Hispanic Black race/ethnicity was disproportionately represented in the group with highest positivity rates. Non-Hispanic Black patients ranged from 1.81 [95% confidence interval: 0.91–3.59] times (at age 20) to 2.37 [1.54–3.65] times (at age 80) more likely to test positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus than non-Hispanic White patients, while test positivity was not significantly different across the neighborhood income spectrum. Testing in the emergency department (OR: 5.4 [3.9, 7.5]) and cardiovascular disease (OR: 2.5 [1.7, 3.8]) were related to increased risk of hospitalization among the 1247 patients who tested positive.

Limitations

Constraints on availability of test kits forced providers to selectively test for SARS-Cov-2.

Conclusion

Non-Hispanic Black patients and patients from low-income neighborhoods tended toward more severe and prolonged symptom profiles and increased comorbidity burden. These factors were associated with higher rates of testing in the ED. Non-Hispanic Black patients also had higher test positivity rates.

The Impact of Obesity in Critical Illness

The prevalence of obesity is rising worldwide. Adipose tissue exerts anatomic and physiological effects with significant implications for critical illness. Changes in respiratory mechanics cause expiratory flow limitation, atelectasis, and V̇/Q̇ mismatch with resultant hypoxemia. Altered work of breathing and obesity hypoventilation syndrome may cause hypercapnia. Challenging mask ventilation and peri-intubation hypoxemia may complicate intubation. Patients with obesity are at increased risk of ARDS and should receive lung-protective ventilation based on predicted body weight. Increased positive end expiratory pressure (PEEP), coupled with appropriate patient positioning, may overcome the alveolar decruitment and intrinsic PEEP caused by elevated baseline pleural pressure; however, evidence is insufficient regarding the impact of high PEEP strategies on outcomes. Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation may be safely performed in patients with obesity. Fluid management should account for increased prevalence of chronic heart and kidney disease, expanded blood volume, and elevated acute kidney injury risk. Medication pharmacodynamics and pharmacokinetics may be altered by hydrophobic drug distribution to adipose depots and comorbid liver or kidney disease. Obesity is associated with increased risk of VTE and infection; appropriate dosing of prophylactic anticoagulation and early removal of indwelling catheters may decrease these risks. Obesity is associated with improved critical illness survival in some studies. It is unclear whether this reflects a protective effect or limitations inherent to observational research. Obesity is associated with increased risk of intubation and death in SARS-CoV-2 infection. Ongoing molecular studies of adipose tissue may deepen our understanding of how obesity impacts critical illness pathophysiology.

Obesity is associated with severe disease and mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a meta-analysis

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to global research to predict those who are at greatest risk of developing severe disease and mortality. The aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the associations between obesity and the severity of and mortality due to COVID-19.

Methods

We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases for studies evaluating the associations of obesity with COVID-19.

Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random- or fixed-effects models. Meta-regression analyses were conducted to estimate regression coefficients.

Results

Forty-six studies involving 625,153 patients were included. Compared with nonobese patients, obese patients had a significantly increased risk of infection.

(OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.53–4.87; I² = 96.8%), hospitalization (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.55–1.92; I² = 47.4%), clinically severe disease (OR 3.81, 95% CI 1.97–7.35; I² = 57.4%), mechanical ventilation (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.42–1.94; I² = 41.3%), intensive care unit (ICU) admission (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.55–3.27; I² = 71.5%), and mortality (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.29–2.01; I² = 83.1%).

Conclusion

Patients with obesity may have a greater risk of infection, hospitalization, clinically severe disease, mechanical ventilation, ICU admission, and mortality due to COVID-19. Therefore, it is important to increase awareness of these associations with obesity in COVID-19 patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11546-6.

COVID-19 and beliefs about tobacco use: an online cross-sectional study in Iran

There is mixed evidence surrounding the relationship between tobacco use and COVID-19 infection/progression. The current study investigates beliefs and tobacco use behaviors and COVID-19 infection among a sample of smokers and never-smokers. Data were collected using an online survey distributed through Telegram, a cloud-based social media networking application in Iran from April 1 to May 31, 2020. The study participants included never-smokers (n = 511), current (past-month) waterpipe smokers (n = 89), current cigarette smokers (n = 158), and ex-smokers (n = 172). Multinomial logistic regression was used to compare tobacco use groups with never- smokers on beliefs, controlling for potential confounders. The study participants (n = 944) was mostly male (64%), had > high school education (76%), and lived in an urban area (91%), with mean ± SD age of 35.3 ± 10.8. Key findings of this study are that compared with never-smokers: (1) cigarette smokers were less likely to believe that smoking cigarette can lead to spreading COVID-19; (2) waterpipe smokers were more likely to believe that smoking waterpipe at home was a safe practice, that waterpipe protects against COVID-19, and smoking waterpipe may lead to a more rapid recovery from COVID-19; (3) both waterpipe and cigarette smokers believed that using e-cigarettes in public places was a safe practice during the COVID-19 pandemic; and (4) more than half of the ex-smokers stopped smoking due to COVID-19 and most of them planned to continue abstaining from smoking after the pandemic. Our findings underscore the need to raise awareness about the unsupported claims of a lower hazard of using tobacco products or possible protective effects against COVID-19 and to promote cessation programs.

How the COVID-19 pandemic impacts tobacco addiction: Changes in smoking behavior and associations with well-being

This research investigated (1) how the coronavirus pandemic impacted tobacco addiction, (2) which smoker segments were more vulnerable, and (3) how the changes in tobacco consumption were associated with smokers' satisfaction with physical health and psychological well-being. Data from a large-scale cross-sectional study of adults in China were analyzed. Outcome measures were the quantity of cigarettes consumed per day prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the quantity after the nationwide outbreak had been contained, satisfaction with physical health, and emotional well-being. Analyses revealed that, after the nationwide outbreak, more individuals quit (vs. started) smoking. Compared to their pre-COVID-19 consumption levels, smokers significantly reduced the quantity of cigarettes they consumed after the nationwide outbreak had been contained. However, there were substantial disparities across individuals: male (vs. female) smokers were less able to curb their smoking; smokers residing in urban (vs. rural) areas or with a longer smoking history were also less able to reduce their smoking. Importantly, a greater reduction in smoking was associated with higher satisfaction with physical health and better emotional well-being. Furthermore, a follow-up investigation revealed that concerns about increased COVID-19 health risks due to smoking were a primary factor driving smokers' behavior change. Overall, these results suggest that, to help smokers fight tobacco addiction and improve well-being, pandemic health policies need to take account of the differences in vulnerability across individuals and leverage the psychological factors that can facilitate behavior change.

Primary Care Informatics Response to Covid-19 Pandemic: Adaptation, Progress, and Lessons from Four Countries with High ICT Development

OBJECTIVE

Internationally, primary care practice had to transform in response to the COVID pandemic. Informatics issues included access, privacy, and security, as well as patient concerns of equity, safety, quality, and trust. This paper describes progress and lessons learned.

METHODS

IMIA Primary Care Informatics Working Group members from Australia, Canada, United Kingdom and United States developed a standardised template for collection of information. The template guided a rapid literature review. We also included experiential learning from primary care and public health perspectives.

RESULTS

All countries responded rapidly. Common themes included rapid reductions then transformation to virtual visits, pausing of non-COVID related informatics projects, all against a background of non-standardized digital development and disparate territory or state regulations and guidance. Common barriers in these four and in less-resourced countries included disparities in internet access and availability including bandwidth limitations when internet access was available, initial lack of coding standards, and fears of primary care clinicians that patients were delaying care despite the availability of televisits.

CONCLUSIONS

Primary care clinicians were able to respond to the COVID crisis through telehealth and electronic record enabled change. However, the lack of coordinated national strategies and regulation, assurance of financial viability, and working in silos remained limitations. The potential for primary care informatics to transform current practice was highlighted. More research is needed to confirm preliminary observations and trends noted.

The Post-Normal Challenges of COVID-19: Constructing Effective and Legitimate Responses

The ongoing COVID-19 emergency clearly presents novel challenges, both in terms of difficulties for maintaining public health and in assuring that governmental responses are ethically sound. Centrally, responses must respect, as best as possible, fundamental human rights and human values. Conflicts among values arise in response to the crisis, and public officials have no choice but to prioritize some while sacrificing others. Utilizing the concepts of effectiveness and legitimacy within the framework of post-normal science (PNS), we investigate and recommend processes and measures to address COVID-19 that support increased public health, while upholding established rights and values. The effectiveness and legitimacy of science-led policymaking requires investigation of how that policy ought to be made (e.g. concepts of policymaking and PNS), as well as how it ought to interact with diversely-constituted publics (e.g. public inclusion in policymaking and policy communication).

Clinical, immunological and virological SARS-CoV-2 phenotypes in obese and non-obese military health system beneficiaries

Background

The mechanisms underlying the association between obesity and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity remain unclear. After verifying that obesity was a correlate of severe COVID-19 in US Military Health System (MHS) beneficiaries, we compared immunological and virological phenotypes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in both obese and nonobese participants.

Methods

COVID-19–infected MHS beneficiaries were enrolled, and anthropometric, clinical, and demographic data were collected. We compared the SARS-CoV-2 peak IgG humoral response and reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction viral load in obese and nonobese patients, stratified by hospitalization, utilizing logistic regression models.

Results

Data from 511 COVID-19 patients were analyzed, among whom 24% were obese and 14% severely obese. Obesity was independently associated with hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15–3.18) and need for oxygen therapy (aOR, 3.39; 95% CI, 1.61–7.11). In outpatients, severely obese had a log₁₀ (1.89) higher nucleocapsid (N1) genome equivalents (GE)/reaction and log₁₀ (2.62) higher N2 GE/reaction than nonobese (P = 0.03 and P < .001, respectively). We noted a correlation between body mass index and peak anti-spike protein IgG in inpatients and outpatients (coefficient = 5.48, P < .001).

Conclusions

Obesity is a strong correlate of COVID-19 severity in MHS beneficiaries. These findings offer new pathophysiological insights into the relationship between obesity and COVID-19 severity.

Perspective: Nutritional Strategies Targeting the Gut Microbiome to Mitigate COVID-19 Outcomes

More than a year has passed since the first reported case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) infection in the city of Wuhan in China's Hubei Province. Until now, few antiviral medications (e.g., remdesivir) or drugs that target inflammatory complications associated with SARS-CoV2 infection have been considered safe by public health authorities. By the end of November 2020, this crisis had led to >1 million deaths and revealed the high susceptibility of people with pre-existing comorbidities (e.g., obesity, diabetes, coronary heart disease, hypertension) to suffer from a severe form of the disease. Elderly people have also been found to be highly susceptible to SARS-CoV2 infection and morbidity. Gastrointestinal manifestations and gut microbial alterations observed in SARS-CoV2-infected hospitalized patients have raised awareness of the potential role of intestinal mechanisms in increasing the severity of the disease. It is therefore critically important to find alternative or complementary approaches, not only to prevent or treat the disease, but also to reduce its growing societal and economic burden. In this review, we explore potential nutritional strategies that implicate the use of polyphenols, probiotics, vitamin D, and ω-3 fatty acids with a focus on the gut microbiome, and that could lead to concrete recommendations that are easily applicable to both vulnerable people with pre-existing metabolic comorbidities and the elderly, but also to the general population.

Trends in COVID-19 cases and clinical management in Veterans Health Administration medical facilities: A national cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We explored longitudinal trends in sociodemographic characteristics, reported symptoms, laboratory findings, pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatment, comorbidities, and 30-day in-hospital mortality among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the United States Veterans Health Administration between 03/01/20 and 08/31/20 and followed until 09/30/20. We focused our analysis on patients that were subsequently hospitalized, and categorized them into groups based on the month of hospitalization. We summarized our findings through descriptive statistics. We used Cuzick's Trend Test to examine any differences in the distribution of our study variables across the six months.

RESULTS

During our study period, we identified 43,267 patients with COVID-19. A total of 8,240 patients were hospitalized, and 13.1% (N = 1,081) died within 30 days of admission. Hospitalizations increased over time, but the proportion of patients that died consistently declined from 24.8% (N = 221/890) in March to 8.0% (N = 111/1,396) in August. Patients hospitalized in March compared to August were younger on average, mostly black, urban-dwelling, febrile and dyspneic. They also had a higher frequency of baseline comorbidities, including hypertension and diabetes, and were more likely to present with abnormal laboratory findings including low lymphocyte counts and elevated creatinine. Lastly, there was a decline from March to August in receipt of mechanical ventilation (31.4% to 13.1%) and hydroxychloroquine (55.3% to <1.0%), while treatment with dexamethasone (3.7% to 52.4%) and remdesivir (1.1% to 38.9%) increased.

CONCLUSION

Among hospitalized patients with COVID-19, we observed a trend towards decreased disease severity and mortality over time.

Variation in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence across districts, schools and classes: baseline measurements from a cohort of primary and secondary school children in Switzerland

OBJECTIVES

To determine the variation in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in school children and the relationship with self-reported symptoms.

DESIGN

Baseline measurements of a longitudinal cohort study (Ciao Corona) from June to July 2020.

SETTING

55 schools stratified by district in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland.

PARTICIPANTS

2585 children (1339 girls; median age: 11 years, age range: 6-16 years), attending grades 1-2, 4-5 and 7-8.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Variation in seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in children across 12 cantonal districts, schools and grades, assessed using Luminex-based test of four epitopes for IgG, IgA and IgM (Antibody Coronavirus Assay,ABCORA 2.0). Clustering of cases within classes. Association of seropositivity and symptoms. Comparison with seroprevalence in adult population, assessed using Luminex-based test of IgG and IgA (Sensitive Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike Trimer Immunoglobulin Serological test).

RESULTS

Overall seroprevalence was 2.8% (95% CI 1.5% to 4.1%), ranging from 1.0% to 4.5% across districts. Seroprevalence in grades 1-2 was 3.8% (95% CI 2.0% to 6.1%), in grades 4-5 was 2.4% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.2%) and in grades 7-8 was 1.5% (95% CI 0.5% to 3.0%). At least one seropositive child was present in 36 of 55 (65%) schools and in 44 (34%) of 131 classes where ≥5 children and ≥50% of children within the class were tested. 73% of children reported COVID-19-compatible symptoms since January 2020, with the same frequency in seropositive and seronegative children for all symptoms. Seroprevalence of children and adults was similar (3.2%, 95% credible interval (CrI) 1.7% to 5.0% vs 3.6%, 95% CrI 1.7% to 5.4%). The ratio of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence-to-seropositive cases was 1:89 in children and 1:12 in adults.

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was low in children and similar to that in adults by the end of June 2020. Very low ratio of diagnosed-to-seropositive children was observed. We did not detect clustering of SARS-CoV-2-seropositive children within classes, but the follow-up of this study will shed more light on transmission within schools.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04448717.

PRINCIPLE trial demonstrates scope for in-pandemic improvement in primary care antibiotic stewardship: a retrospective sentinel network cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Platform Randomised trial of INterventions against COVID-19 In older peoPLE (PRINCIPLE) has provided in-pandemic evidence that azithromycin and doxycycline were not beneficial in the early primary care management of COVID-19.

AIM

To explore the extent of azithromycin and doxycycline in-pandemic use, and the scope for trial findings impacting on practice.

DESIGN & SETTING

Crude rates of prescribing and respiratory tract infections (RTI) in 2020 were compared with 2019, using the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC).

METHOD

A negative binomial model was used to compare azithromycin and doxycycline lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), and influenza-like-illness (ILI) in 2020 with 2019; reporting incident rate ratios (IRR) between years, and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

RESULTS

Azithromycin prescriptions increased 7% in 2020 compared with 2019, whereas doxycycline decreased by 7%. Concurrently, LRTI and URTI incidence fell by over half (58.3% and 54.4%, respectively) while ILI rose slightly (6.4%). The overall percentage of RTI prescribed azithromycin rose from 0.51% in 2019 to 0.72% in 2020 (risk difference of 0.214% [95% CI = 0.211 to 0.217]); doxycycline rose from 11.86% in 2019 to 15.79% in 2020 (risk difference: 3.93% [95% CI = 3.73 to 4.14]). The adjusted IRR showed azithromycin prescribing was 22% higher in 2020 (IRR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.19 to 1.26, P<0.0001), for every unit rise in confirmed COVID-19 there was an associated 3% rise in prescription (IRR = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.03, P<0.0001); whereas these measures were static for doxycycline.

CONCLUSION

PRINCIPLE demonstrates scope for improved antimicrobial stewardship during a pandemic.

Body Mass Index and Mortality in Coronavirus Disease 2019 and Other Diseases: A Cohort Study in 35,506 ICU Patients

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

OBJECTIVES:

Obesity is a risk factor for severe coronavirus disease 2019 and might play a role in its pathophysiology. It is unknown whether body mass index is related to clinical outcome following ICU admission, as observed in various other categories of critically ill patients. We investigated the relationship between body mass index and inhospital mortality in critically ill coronavirus disease 2019 patients and in cohorts of ICU patients with non-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral pneumonia, bacterial pneumonia, and multiple trauma.

DESIGN:

Multicenter observational cohort study.

SETTING:

Eighty-two Dutch ICUs participating in the Dutch National Intensive Care Evaluation quality registry.

PATIENTS:

Thirty-five–thousand five-hundred six critically ill patients.

INTERVENTIONS:

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:

Patient characteristics and clinical outcomes were compared between four cohorts (coronavirus disease 2019, nonsevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral pneumonia, bacterial pneumonia, and multiple trauma patients) and between body mass index categories within cohorts. Adjusted analyses of the relationship between body mass index and inhospital mortality within each cohort were performed using multivariable logistic regression. Coronavirus disease 2019 patients were more likely male, had a higher body mass index, lower Pao₂/Fio₂ ratio, and were more likely mechanically ventilated during the first 24 hours in the ICU compared with the other cohorts. Coronavirus disease 2019 patients had longer ICU and hospital length of stay, and higher inhospital mortality. Odds ratios for inhospital mortality for patients with body mass index greater than or equal to 35 kg/m² compared with normal weight in the coronavirus disease 2019, nonsevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral pneumonia, bacterial pneumonia, and trauma cohorts were 1.15 (0.79–1.67), 0.64 (0.43–0.95), 0.73 (0.61–0.87), and 0.81 (0.57–1.15), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS:

The obesity paradox, which is the inverse association between body mass index and mortality in critically ill patients, is not present in ICU patients with coronavirus disease 2019–related respiratory failure, in contrast to nonsevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral and bacterial respiratory infections.

Association of Food Intake Quality with Vitamin D in SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients from Mexico: A Cross-Sectional Study

One of the micronutrients that has attracted the most attention in relation to COVID-19 is vitamin D. Although several factors affect its sufficiency; it has been argued that an optimal diet can ensure the intake of micronutrients with effects on immune response. Therefore, in this work we aimed to evaluate the food intake quality of SARS-CoV-2 positive Mexican patients and some of the common factors related to vitamin D deficiency. We conducted a cross-sectional study in 40 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. Serum samples and clinical parameters were collected. Micronutrient intake and food intake quality were assessed with a 24-h dietary recall and the Mini-ECCA v.2, respectively. Thirty-eight percent of the sample had a healthy food intake. The median 25(OH)D concentration was 22.7 ng/mL. A considerable insufficient intake of micronutrients with immunomodulatory effects such as vitamin D (p < 0.0001), vitamin E (p < 0.0001), and zinc (p < 0.0001) was shown. Patients with 25(OH)D sufficiency, defined as a concentration >30 ng/mL, had better food intake quality (p = 0.02) and an intense physical activity (p = 0.03). In conclusion, a better level of food intake quality and intense physical activity are associated with 25(OH)D sufficiency in SARS-CoV-2 positive Mexican patients.

Children's role in the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of early surveillance data on susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility

SARS-CoV-2 infections have been reported in all age groups including infants, children, and adolescents. However, the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic is still uncertain. This systematic review of early studies synthesises evidence on the susceptibility of children to SARS-CoV-2 infection, the severity and clinical outcomes in children with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 by children in the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. A systematic literature review was conducted in PubMed. Reviewers extracted data from relevant, peer-reviewed studies published up to July 4th 2020 during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak using a standardised form and assessed quality using the NIH Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. For studies included in the meta-analysis, we used a random effects model to calculate pooled estimates of the proportion of children considered asymptomatic or in a severe or critical state. We identified 2775 potential studies of which 128 studies met our inclusion criteria; data were extracted from 99, which were then quality assessed. Finally, 29 studies were considered for the meta-analysis that included information of symptoms and/or severity, these were further assessed based on patient recruitment. Our pooled estimate of the proportion of test positive children who were asymptomatic was 21.1% (95% CI: 14.0-28.1%), based on 13 included studies, and the proportion of children with severe or critical symptoms was 3.8% (95% CI: 1.5-6.0%), based on 14 included studies. We did not identify any studies designed to assess transmissibility in children and found that susceptibility to infection in children was highly variable across studies. Children's susceptibility to infection and onward transmissibility relative to adults is still unclear and varied widely between studies. However, it is evident that most children experience clinically mild disease or remain asymptomatically infected. More comprehensive contact-tracing studies combined with serosurveys are needed to quantify children's transmissibility relative to adults. With children back in schools, testing regimes and study protocols that will allow us to better understand the role of children in this pandemic are critical.

COVID-19 and chronic kidney disease: a comprehensive review

Kidney impairment in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with increased in-hospital mortality and worse clinical evolution, raising concerns towards patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). From a pathophysiological perspective, COVID-19 is characterized by an overproduction of inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-alpha), causing systemic inflammation and hypercoagulability, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Emerging data postulate that CKD under conservative treatment or renal replacement therapy (RRT) is an important risk factor for disease severity and higher in-hospital mortality amongst patients with COVID-19. Regarding RAAS blockers therapy during the pandemic, the initial assumption of a potential increase and deleterious impact in infectivity, disease severity, and mortality was not evidenced in medical literature. Moreover, the challenge of implementing social distancing in patients requiring dialysis during the pandemic prompted national and international societies to publish recommendations regarding the adoption of safety measures to reduce transmission risk and optimize dialysis treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Current data convey that kidney transplant recipients are more vulnerable to more severe infection. Thus, we provide a comprehensive review of the clinical outcomes and prognosis of patients with CKD under conservative treatment and dialysis, and kidney transplant recipients and COVID-19 infection.

Patterns of Virus Exposure and Presumed Household Transmission among Persons with Coronavirus Disease, United States, January-April 2020

We characterized common exposures reported by a convenience sample of 202 US patients with coronavirus disease during January–April 2020 and identified factors associated with presumed household transmission. The most commonly reported settings of known exposure were households and healthcare facilities; among case-patients who had known contact with a confirmed case-patient compared with those who did not, healthcare occupations were more common. Among case-patients without known contact, use of public transportation was more common. Within the household, presumed transmission was highest from older (>65 years) index case-patients and from children to parents, independent of index case-patient age. These findings may inform guidance for limiting transmission and emphasize the value of testing to identify community-acquired infections.

Epicardial adipose tissue characteristics, obesity and clinical outcomes in COVID-19: A post-hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Obesity-related cardiometabolic risk factors associate with COVID-19 severity and outcomes. Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) is associated with cardiometabolic disturbances, is a source of proinflammatory cytokines and a marker of visceral adiposity. We investigated the relation between EAT characteristics and outcomes in COVID-19 patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This post-hoc analysis of a large prospective investigation included all adult patients (≥18 years) admitted to San Raffaele University Hospital in Milan, Italy, from February 25th to April 19th, 2020 with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who underwent a chest computed tomography (CT) scan for COVID-19 pneumonia and had anthropometric data available for analyses. EAT volume and attenuation (EAT-At, a marker of EAT inflammation) were measured on CT scan. Primary outcome was critical illness, defined as admission to intensive care unit (ICU), invasive ventilation or death. Cox regression and regression tree analyses were used to assess the relationship between clinical variables, EAT characteristics and critical illness. One-hundred and ninety-two patients were included (median [25th-75th percentile] age 60 years [53-70], 76% men). Co-morbidities included overweight/obesity (70%), arterial hypertension (40%), and diabetes (16%). At multivariable Cox regression analysis, EAT-At (HR 1.12 [1.04-1.21]) independently predicted critical illness, while increasing PaO₂/FiO₂ was protective (HR 0.996 [95% CI 0.993; 1.00]). CRP, plasma glucose on admission, EAT-At and PaO₂/FiO₂ identified five risk groups that significantly differed with respect to time to death or admission to ICU (log-rank p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Increased EAT attenuation, a marker of EAT inflammation, but not obesity or EAT volume, predicts critical COVID-19.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT04318366.

Middle Meningeal Artery Embolization for Chronic Subdural Hematoma: A National Database Study of 191 Patients in the United States

BACKGROUND

Middle meningeal artery embolization (MMAE) has been used as an effective minimally invasive treatment for chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH). The demographics and clinical outcomes after MMAE treatment for cSDH have not yet been studied using a national database.

METHODS

We queried all MMAE cases up to October 7, 2020, from the TriNetX Analytics Network. We identified patients >18 years old who underwent MMAE for treatment of cSDH. Patient demographics, baseline characteristics, comorbidities, and clinical outcomes were evaluated within 180 days after MMAE. Analyses of 180-day mortality and recurrence were performed after propensity score matching to control for baseline characteristics and comorbidities.

RESULTS

The study included 191 patients (mean age 71.2 ± 13.5 years, 73.3% male, 69.6% White, 13.6% Black/African American, and 16.8% other race). Essential hypertension (71.3%), heart disease (62.8%), type 2 diabetes mellitus (27.2%), nicotine dependence (23.6%), chronic kidney disease (19.4%), and overweight/obesity (19.4%) were among the most prevalent comorbidities. At presentation, 20.4% and 40.3% of patients were on antiplatelet and anticoagulation therapy, respectively. Outcomes within 180-day follow-up were 6.3% (1.0%-5.8% when propensity matched) for mortality (12 patients), 7.3% for craniotomy/craniectomy after MMAE (14 patients), 0.52%-5.2% for burr hole procedures (1-10 patients), and no patients with low vision/blindness.

CONCLUSIONS

MMAE is a safe and effective minimally invasive procedure for treatment of cSDH. This is the first analysis of patients undergoing MMAE for cSDH using a national database.

The demography and characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 seropositive residents and staff of nursing homes for older adults in the Community of Madrid: the SeroSOS study

Background: Nursing homes for older adults have concentrated large numbers of severe cases and deaths for COVID-19.

Methods: Point seroprevalence study of nursing homes to describe the demography and characteristic of SARS-CoV-2 IgG-positive residents and staff.

Results: Clinical information and blood samples were available for 9,332 residents (mean age 86.7 ± 8.1 years, 76.4% women) and 10,614 staff (mean age 45.6 ± 11.5, 86.2% women). Up to 84.4% of residents had frailty, 84.9% co-morbidity and 69.3% cognitive impairment; 65.2% of workers were health-aides.

COVID-19 seroprevalence was 55.4% (95% CI, 54.4–56.4) for older adults and 31.5% (30.6–32.4) for staff. In multivariable analysis frailty of residents was related with seropositivity (OR: 1.19, p = 0.02). In the case of staff, age > 50 years (2.10, p < 0.001), obesity (1.19, p = 0.01), being a health-aide (1.94, p < 0.001), working in a center with high seroprevalence in residents (3.49, p < 0.001), and contact with external cases of COVID-19 (1.52, p < 0.001) were factors associated with seropositivity. Past symptoms of COVID-19 were good predictors of seropositivity for residents (5.41, p < 0.001) and staff (2.52, p < 0.001).

Conclusions: Level of dependency influences risk of COVID-19 among residents. Individual and work factors, and contacts outside the nursing home are associated with COVID-19 exposure in staff members. It is key to strengthen control measures to prevent the introduction of COVID-19 into care facilities from the community.

SARS-Co-V2 infection in never, former, and current tobacco/nicotine users: a cohort study of 4040 Egyptian healthcare workers

BACKGROUND

Smoking negatively impacts COVID-19 severity and adverse outcomes. Evidence on whether smoking is associated with SARS-Co-V2 infection and having a positive test is scarce, particularly from low-and middle-income countries, where most of the world's billion smokers live. The inconsistency in relevant findings calls for study designs and analyses to account for possible confounders including background characteristics and pre-existing co-morbidities, to disentangle the specific effect of smoking. In healthcare workers (HCWs) the frequency of exposure to COVID-19 cases adds another layer of risk that was not factored in previous studies. We examined the association of HCWs' tobacco/nicotine use (never, former, and current use) with having a positive SARS-Co-V2 test result and symptoms suggestive of infection, accounting for demographics, exposures, and co-morbidities.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study of 4040 healthcare workers with baseline and follow-up screening took place during April-June 2020 in 12 healthcare facilities in Cairo, Egypt. Data on demographics, tobacco/nicotine use (manufactured or roll-your-own cigarettes, waterpipe tobacco, and electronic devices), co-morbidities, symptoms, exposures, and SARS-Co-V2 investigations were analyzed. Multinomial and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Overall, 270/4040 (6.7, 95%CI: 5.9-7.5) had positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, 479 (11.9%) were current and 79 (2.0%) were former tobacco/nicotine users. The proportion of positive tests was 7.0% (243/3482, 95%CI: 6.1-7.8) among never, 5.1% (4/79, 95%CI: 0.1-10.0) among former, and 4.8% (23/479, 95%CI: 2.9-6.7) among current users. HCWs' SARS-CoV-2 test results did not vary significantly by single/multiple or daily/non-daily tobacco/nicotine use. Compared to never users, former users were more likely to self-report a pre-existing medical condition (ORadjusted1.87, 95%CI: 1.05-3.33, p = 0.033), and to experience symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 (ORadjusted1.76, 95%CI: 1.07-2.90, p = 0.027). After adjustment, former (ORadjusted0.45, 95%CI: 0.11-1.89, p = 0.273) and current (ORadjusted0.65, 95%CI: 0.38-1.09, p = 0.101) tobacco/nicotine use was not associated with HCWs' SARS-CoV-2 positive test results.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first report on this association from low- and middle-income countries with high tobacco/nicotine use prevalence. In this HCW cohort, having a positive SARS-CoV-2 test was not associated with tobacco/nicotine use after accounting for demographics, exposures, and co-morbidities. Additional population-based studies could use such preliminary evidence to investigate this controversial association.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Smoking Behaviours and Support for Smoke-Free Zones in Saudi Arabia

This article focuses on the impact of COVID-19 on smoking and smoking cessation behaviours and support for smoke-free zones in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. A pre-tested structured survey was distributed by email in October-November 2020 to students and staff at the University of Jeddah. Responses were analysed using descriptive statistics with summative content analysis of open text. Participants providing open text comments (n = 374/666; 56.4%) were non-smokers (n = 293; 78.3%), former smokers (n = 26; 7.0%) and current smokers (n = 55; 14.7%). Some had household members (n = 220; 58.8%) and friends who smoke (n = 198; 52.9%) plus daily exposure to secondhand smoke at home (n = 125; 33.4%). There was an awareness during COVID-19 of: smoking inside cafes/restaurants and other indoor and outdoor public places; exposure to warnings in the media both against and promoting smoking; widespread support for smoke-free zones. Smokers plans for accessing smoking cessation support are inconsistent with retrospective reports. Many express positivity highlighting reductions in smoking but there were also negative reports of increased smoking. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected every aspect of society worldwide. People have been at home more with restricted freedom of movement and limitations on social liberty. These individual accounts can help to focus evidence-based smoking prevention and cessation programmes during and post-COVID-19.

Impact of demographic, environmental, socioeconomic, and government intervention on the spreading of COVID-19

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a worldwide epidemiological emergency, and the risk factors for the multiple waves with new COVID-19 strains are concerning. This study aims to identify the most significant risk factors for spreading COVID-19 to help policymakers take early measures for the next waves.

Methods

We conducted the study on randomly selected 29 countries where the pandemic had a downward trend in the daily active cases curve as of June 10, 2020. We investigated the association with the standardized spreading index and demographical, environmental, socioeconomic, and government intervention. To standardize the spreading index, we accounted for the number of tests and the timeline bias. Furthermore, we performed multiple linear regression to identify the relative importance of the variables.

Results

In the correlation analysis, air pollution, PM_2.5 (r = 0.37, p = 0.0466), number of days to impose lockdown from first case (r = 0.38, p = 0.0424) and total confirmed cases on the first lockdown (r = 0.61, p = 0.0004) were associated with outcome measures. In the adjusted model, air pollution (β1 = 4.5, p = 0.0127, |t| = 3.1) and overweight prevalence (β1 = 4.7, p = 0.0187, |t| = 2.9) were the most significant exposure variable for spreading of COVID-19.

Conclusion

Our findings showed that countries with larger PM_2.5 values and comparatively more overweight populations are at higher risk of spreading COVID-19. Proper preventive measures may reduce the spreading.

Acceptance of COVID-19 Vaccine among the Healthcare Workers in the Eastern Cape, South Africa: A Cross Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

This study assesses the perceptions and acceptance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination. It also examines its influencing factors among the healthcare workers (HCWs) in the Eastern Cape, South Africa.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study performed in November and December 2020, a total of 1308 HCWs from two large academic hospitals participated in the Eastern Cape Healthcare Workers Acquisition of SARS-CoV-2 (ECHAS) study. Validated measures of vaccine hesitancy were explored using a questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of vaccine hesitancy.

RESULTS

The majority were nurses (45.2%), and at risk for unfavourable Covid-19 outcome, due to obesity (62.9%) and having direct contact with individuals confirmed to have Covid-19 (77.1%). The overall acceptance of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine was 90.1%, which differed significantly by level of education. Individuals with lower educational attainment (primary and secondary education) and those with prior vaccine refusal were less likely to accept the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. However, positive perceptions about the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine were independently associated with vaccine acceptance.

CONCLUSIONS

The high level of acceptance of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is reassuring; however, HCWs with a lower level of education and those with prior vaccine refusal should be targeted for further engagements to address their concerns and fears.

Risk Factors of Infection, Hospitalization and Death from SARS-CoV-2: A Population-Based Cohort Study

We conducted a prospective population-based cohort study to assess risk factors for infection, hospitalization, and death from SARS-CoV-2. The study comprised the people covered by the Health Service of Navarre, Spain. Sociodemographic variables and chronic conditions were obtained from electronic healthcare databases. Confirmed infections, hospitalizations, and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 were obtained from the enhanced epidemiological surveillance during the second SARS-CoV-2 epidemic surge (July–December 2020), in which diagnostic tests were widely available. Among 643,757 people, 5497 confirmed infections, 323 hospitalizations, 38 intensive care unit admissions, and 72 deaths from SARS-CoV-2 per 100,000 inhabitants were observed. A higher incidence of confirmed infection was associated with people aged 15–29 years, nursing home residents, healthcare workers, people born in Latin America or Africa, as well as in those diagnosed with diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, dementia, severe obesity, hypertension and functional dependence. The risk of hospitalization in the population was associated with males, higher age, nursing home residents, Latin American or African origin, and those diagnosed with immunodeficiency, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, COPD, asthma, kidney disease, cerebrovascular disease, cirrhosis, dementia, severe obesity, hypertension and functional dependence. The risk of death was associated with males, higher age, nursing home residents, Latin American origin, low income level, immunodeficiency, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, COPD, kidney disease, dementia, and functional dependence. This study supports the prioritization of the older population, nursing home residents, and people with chronic conditions and functional dependence for SARS-CoV-2 prevention and vaccination, and highlights the need for additional preventive support for immigrants.

Transdermal nicotine in non-smokers: A systematic review to design COVID-19 clinical trials

Recent data show an interaction between COVID-19 and nicotine and indicate the need for an assessment of transdermal nicotine use in non-smokers. Assessments have been conducted into the short-term cognitive effects of nicotine and into diseases such as Parkinson's, Tourette syndrome, ADHD or ulcerative colitis.

METHODS

Analyses of nicotine administration protocols and safety were conducted after reviewing Medline and Science Direct databases performing a search using the words [transdermal nicotine] AND [non-smoker] AND selected diseases.

RESULTS

Among 298 articles identified, there were 35 reviewed publications reporting on 33 studies of non-smokers receiving transdermal nicotine for >48hours. In the 16 randomized trials, 7 crossover, 1 case/control and 9 open studies patients received an initial nicotine dose of between 2.5mg and 15mg/day. In 22 studies, daily doses increased by 2 to 7 steps in 3 to 96 days until the dose was between 5mg and 105mg/day. The target nicotine dose was 19.06±20.89mg/day. The 987 non-smokers (534 never-smokers, 326 ex-smokers and 127 classified as "non-smokers") received or did not receive nicotine. The most common side-effects were nausea and skin itching. Forty-three (7.1%) non-smokers stopped treatment because of an adverse event of nicotine. No hospitalization related to nicotine side-effects were reported.

CONCLUSION

Despite a relatively safe tolerance profile, transdermal nicotine therapy in non-smokers can only be used in clinical trials. There is a lack of formal assessment of the potential risk of developing a tobacco addiction. This review offers baseline data to set a transdermal nicotine protocol for non-smokers with a new purpose.

Epidemiological profiles and associated risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients based on a high-throughput testing facility in India

We describe the epidemiological characteristics and associated risk factors of those presenting at a large testing centre for SARS-CoV-2 infection. This is a retrospective record review of individuals who underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing by reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) at a high-throughput national-level government facility located in the north of India. Samples collected from 6 April to 31 December 2020 are included in this work and represent four highly populous regions. Additionally, there was a prospective follow-up of 1729 cases through telephone interviews from 25 May 2020 to 20 June 2020. Descriptive analysis has been performed for profiling clinic-epidemiological aspects of suspect cases. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was undertaken to determine risk factors that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 test positivity and symptom status. A total of 125 600 participants' details have been included in this report. The mean (s.d.) age of the participants was 33.1 (±15.3) years and 66% were male. Among these tested, 9515 (7.6%) were positive for COVID-19. A large proportion of positive cases were asymptomatic. In symptomatic positive cases, the commonest symptoms were cough and fever. Increasing age (groups 20–59 and ≥60 years compared to age group less than 5 years), male sex, history of international travel, symptoms for SARS-CoV-2, and participants from Delhi and Madhya Pradesh were positively associated with SARS-CoV-2 test positivity. Having co-morbidity, risk behaviours and intra-familial positivity were associated with a positive odds ratio for exhibiting SARS-CoV-2 symptoms. Intensified testing and isolation of cases, identification of both asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals and additional care of those with co-morbidities and risk behaviours will all be collectively important for disease containment in India. Reasons for differentials in testing between men and women remain an important area for in-depth study. The increased deployment of vaccines is likely to impact the trajectory of COVID-19 in the coming time, and therefore our data will serve as a comparative resource as India experiences the second wave of infection in light of newer variants that are likely to accelerate disease spread.

Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: From transmission to control with an interdisciplinary vision

There a lot of review papers addressing specific COVID-19 research sectors, then devoted to specialists. This review provides an in-depth summary of the available information about SARS-CoV-2 and the corresponding disease (also known as COVID-19), with a multi-disciplinary approach. After the paper introduction, the first section treats the virological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, the medical implications of the infection, and the human susceptivity. Great attention is devoted to the factor affecting the infection routes, distinguishing among the possible human-to-human, environmental-to-human, and pollution-to-human transmission mechanisms. The second section is devoted to reporting the impact of SARS-CoV-2 not only on the healthcare systems but also on the economy and society. The third section is devoted to non-pharmaceutical behaviours against COVID-19. In this context, this review section presents an analysis of the European second wave allowing not only to focalize the importance of some restrictions, but also the relevance of social acceptance of some measures. The data reassumed in this work are very useful for interdisciplinary researchers that work in a team to find the basic available information about all the aspects connected with this pandemic (from virus diffusion mechanism to health information, from economic and social impacts to measures to reduce the pandemic spread), with great attention to social acceptance of restriction measures and of vaccines (that currently results to be insufficient to achieve community immunity). Then, this review paper highlights the fundamental role of the trans-multi-disciplinary research that is devoted not only to understand the basics of the pandemic to propose solutions but has also the commitment to find strategies to increase population resilience. For this aim, the authors strongly suggest the establishment of an international health-care trans-multi-disciplinary workforce devoted to investigate, mitigate, and control also future viral events.

The association of smoking status with SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization and mortality from COVID-19: a living rapid evidence review with Bayesian meta-analyses (version 7)

AIMS

To estimate the association of smoking status with rates of (i) infection, (ii) hospitalization, (iii) disease severity and (iv) mortality from SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 disease.

DESIGN

Living rapid review of observational and experimental studies with random-effects hierarchical Bayesian meta-analyses. Published articles and pre-prints were identified via MEDLINE and medRxiv.

SETTING

Community or hospital, no restrictions on location.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults who received a SARS-CoV-2 test or a COVID-19 diagnosis.

MEASUREMENTS

Outcomes were SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, disease severity and mortality stratified by smoking status. Study quality was assessed (i.e. 'good', 'fair' and 'poor').

FINDINGS

Version 7 (searches up to 25 August 2020) included 233 studies with 32 'good' and 'fair' quality studies included in meta-analyses. Fifty-seven studies (24.5%) reported current, former and never smoking status. Recorded smoking prevalence among people with COVID-19 was generally lower than national prevalence. Current compared with never smokers were at reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection [relative risk (RR) = 0.74, 95% credible interval (CrI) = 0.58-0.93, τ = 0.41]. Data for former smokers were inconclusive (RR = 1.05, 95% CrI = 0.95-1.17, τ = 0.17), but favoured there being no important association (21% probability of RR ≥ 1.1). Former compared with never smokers were at somewhat increased risk of hospitalization (RR = 1.20, CrI = 1.03-1.44, τ = 0.17), greater disease severity (RR = 1.52, CrI = 1.13-2.07, τ = 0.29) and mortality (RR = 1.39, 95% CrI = 1.09-1.87, τ = 0.27). Data for current smokers were inconclusive (RR = 1.06, CrI = 0.82-1.35, τ = 0.27; RR = 1.25, CrI = 0.85-1.93, τ = 0.34; RR = 1.22, 95% CrI = 0.78-1.94, τ = 0.49, respectively), but favoured there being no important associations with hospitalization and mortality (35% and 70% probability of RR ≥ 1.1, respectively) and a small but important association with disease severity (79% probability of RR ≥ 1.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with never smokers, current smokers appear to be at reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, while former smokers appear to be at increased risk of hospitalization, increased disease severity and mortality from COVID-19. However, it is uncertain whether these associations are causal.

Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: From transmission to control with an interdisciplinary vision

There a lot of review papers addressing specific COVID-19 research sectors, then devoted to specialists. This review provides an in-depth summary of the available information about SARS-CoV-2 and the corresponding disease (also known as COVID-19), with a multi-disciplinary approach. After the paper introduction, the first section treats the virological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, the medical implications of the infection, and the human susceptivity. Great attention is devoted to the factor affecting the infection routes, distinguishing among the possible human-to-human, environmental-to-human, and pollution-to-human transmission mechanisms. The second section is devoted to reporting the impact of SARS-CoV-2 not only on the healthcare systems but also on the economy and society. The third section is devoted to non-pharmaceutical behaviours against COVID-19. In this context, this review section presents an analysis of the European second wave allowing not only to focalize the importance of some restrictions, but also the relevance of social acceptance of some measures. The data reassumed in this work are very useful for interdisciplinary researchers that work in a team to find the basic available information about all the aspects connected with this pandemic (from virus diffusion mechanism to health information, from economic and social impacts to measures to reduce the pandemic spread), with great attention to social acceptance of restriction measures and of vaccines (that currently results to be insufficient to achieve community immunity). Then, this review paper highlights the fundamental role of the trans-multi-disciplinary research that is devoted not only to understand the basics of the pandemic to propose solutions but has also the commitment to find strategies to increase population resilience. For this aim, the authors strongly suggest the establishment of an international health-care trans-multi-disciplinary workforce devoted to investigate, mitigate, and control also future viral events.

Development of a predictive prognostic rule for early assessment of COVID-19 patients in primary care settings

Objective

To investigate possible early prognostic factors among middle-aged and older adult and explore prognostic rules stratifying risk of patients.

Design

Community-based retrospective cohort.

Setting

Primary Health Care Tarragona region.

Participants

282 community-dwelling symptomatic patients ≥50 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (hospitalised and/or outpatient) during March-June 2020 in Tarragona (Southern Catalonia, Spain).

Main outcome measurements

Relationship between demographics, pre-existing comorbidities and early symptomatology (first 5-days) and risk of suffering critical outcome (ICU-admission/death) across clinical course was evaluated by logistic regression analyses, and simple predictive models were developed.

Results

Of the 282 cases (mean age: 65.9 years; 140 men), 154 (54.6%) were hospitalised (30 ICU-admitted) and 45 (16%) deceased. Median time follow-up in clinical course was 31 days (range: 30–150) for survivors and 14 days (range: 1–81) for deceased patients. In crude analyses, increasing age, male sex, some comorbidities (renal, respiratory or cardiac disease, diabetes and hypertension) and symptoms (confusion, dyspnoea) were associated with an increased risk to suffer critical outcome, whereas other symptoms (rinorrhea, myalgias, headache, anosmia/disgeusia) were related with reduced risk. After multivariable-adjustment only age/years (OR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01–1.07; p = 0.004), confusion (OR: 5.33; 95% CI: 1.54–18.48; p = 0.008), dyspnoea (OR: 5.41; 95% CI: 2.74–10.69; p < 0.001) and myalgias (OR: 0.30; 95% CI: 0.10–0.93; p = 0.038) remained significantly associated with increased or reduced risk. A proposed CD65-M prognostic rule (acronym of above mentioned 4 variables) showed a good correlation with the risk of suffering critical outcome (area under ROC curve: 0.828; 95% CI: 0.774–0.882).

Conclusion

Clinical course of COVID-19 is early unpredictable, but simple clinical tools as the proposed CD65-M rule (pending external validation) may be helpful assessing these patients in primary care settings.

Bioinformatic HLA Studies in the Context of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic and Review on Association of HLA Alleles with Preexisting Medical Conditions

After the announcement of a new coronavirus in China in December 2019, which was then called SARS-CoV-2, this virus changed to a global concern and it was then declared as a pandemic by WHO. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles, which are one of the most polymorphic genes, play a pivotal role in both resistance and vulnerability of the body against viruses and other infections as well as chronic diseases. The association between HLA alleles and preexisting medical conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus is reported in various studies. In this review, we focused on the bioinformatic HLA studies to summarize the HLA alleles which responded to SARS-CoV-2 peptides and have been used to design vaccines. We also reviewed HLA alleles that are associated with comorbidities and might be related to the high mortality rate among COVID-19 patients. Since both genes and patients' medical conditions play a key role in both severity of the disease and the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients, a better understanding of the connection between HLA alleles and SARS-CoV-2 can provide a wider perspective on the behavior of the virus. Such understanding can help scientists, especially in terms of protecting healthcare workers and designing effective vaccines.

Causal graph analysis of COVID-19 observational data in German districts reveals effects of determining factors on reported case numbers

Several determinants are suspected to be causal drivers for new cases of COVID-19 infection. Correcting for possible confounders, we estimated the effects of the most prominent determining factors on reported case numbers. To this end, we used a directed acyclic graph (DAG) as a graphical representation of the hypothesized causal effects of the determinants on new reported cases of COVID-19. Based on this, we computed valid adjustment sets of the possible confounding factors. We collected data for Germany from publicly available sources (e.g. Robert Koch Institute, Germany's National Meteorological Service, Google) for 401 German districts over the period of 15 February to 8 July 2020, and estimated total causal effects based on our DAG analysis by negative binomial regression. Our analysis revealed favorable effects of increasing temperature, increased public mobility for essential shopping (grocery and pharmacy) or within residential areas, and awareness measured by COVID-19 burden, all of them reducing the outcome of newly reported COVID-19 cases. Conversely, we saw adverse effects leading to an increase in new COVID-19 cases for public mobility in retail and recreational areas or workplaces, awareness measured by searches for "corona" in Google, higher rainfall, and some socio-demographic factors. Non-pharmaceutical interventions were found to be effective in reducing case numbers. This comprehensive causal graph analysis of a variety of determinants affecting COVID-19 progression gives strong evidence for the driving forces of mobility, public awareness, and temperature, whose implications need to be taken into account for future decisions regarding pandemic management.

Risk of reinfection after seroconversion to SARS-CoV-2: A population-based propensity-score matched cohort study

Background

Serological assays detecting anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies are being widely deployed in studies and clinical practice. However, the duration and effectiveness of the protection conferred by the immune response remains to be assessed in population-based samples. To estimate the incidence of newly acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections in seropositive individuals as compared to seronegative controls we conducted a retrospective longitudinal matched study.

Methods

A seroprevalence survey including a representative sample of the population was conducted in Geneva, Switzerland between April and June 2020, immediately after the first pandemic wave. Seropositive participants were matched one-to-two to seronegative controls, using a propensity-score including age, gender, immunodeficiency, BMI, smoking status and education level. Each individual was linked to a state-registry of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Our primary outcome was confirmed infections occurring from serological status assessment to the end of the second pandemic wave (January 2021).

Results

Among 8344 serosurvey participants, 498 seropositive individuals were selected and matched with 996 seronegative controls. After a mean follow-up of 35.6 (SD 3.2) weeks, 7 out of 498 (1.4%) seropositive subjects had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, of whom 5 (1.0%) were classified as reinfections. In contrast, the infection rate was higher in seronegative individuals (15.5%, 154/996) during a similar follow-up period (mean 34.7 [SD 3.2] weeks), corresponding to a 94% (95%CI 86% to 98%, P<0.001) reduction in the hazard of having a positive SARS-CoV-2 test for seropositives.

Conclusions

Seroconversion after SARS-CoV-2 infection confers protection against reinfection lasting at least 8 months. These findings could help global health authorities establishing priority for vaccine allocation.

Individual and social determinants of SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity in Ontario, Canada: a population-wide study

BACKGROUND

Optimizing the public health response to reduce the burden of COVID-19 necessitates characterizing population-level heterogeneity of risks for the disease. However, heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 testing may introduce biased estimates depending on analytic design. We aimed to explore the potential for collider bias in a large study of disease determinants, and evaluate individual, environmental and social determinants associated with SARS-CoV-2 testing and diagnosis among residents of Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We explored the potential for collider bias and characterized individual, environmental and social determinants of being tested and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection using cross-sectional analyses among 14.7 million community-dwelling people in Ontario, Canada. Among those with a diagnosis, we used separate analytic designs to compare predictors of people testing positive versus negative; symptomatic people testing positive versus testing negative; and people testing positive versus people not testing positive (i.e., testing negative or not being tested). Our analyses included tests conducted between Mar. 1 and June 20, 2020.

RESULTS

Of 14 695 579 people, we found that 758 691 were tested for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 25 030 (3.3%) had a positive test result. The further the odds of testing from the null, the more variability we generally observed in the odds of diagnosis across analytic design, particularly among individual factors. We found that there was less variability in testing by social determinants across analytic designs. Residing in areas with the highest household density (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.75-1.98), highest proportion of essential workers (adjusted OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.48-1.69), lowest educational attainment (adjusted OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.26-1.41) and highest proportion of recent immigrants (adjusted OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05-1.15) were consistently related to increased odds of SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis regardless of analytic design.

INTERPRETATION

Where testing is limited, our results suggest that risk factors may be better estimated using population comparators rather than test-negative comparators. Optimizing COVID-19 responses necessitates investment in and sufficient coverage of structural interventions tailored to heterogeneity in social determinants of risk, including household crowding, occupation and structural racism.

Individual and social determinants of SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity in Ontario, Canada: a population-wide study

BACKGROUND

Optimizing the public health response to reduce the burden of COVID-19 necessitates characterizing population-level heterogeneity of risks for the disease. However, heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 testing may introduce biased estimates depending on analytic design. We aimed to explore the potential for collider bias in a large study of disease determinants, and evaluate individual, environmental and social determinants associated with SARS-CoV-2 testing and diagnosis among residents of Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We explored the potential for collider bias and characterized individual, environmental and social determinants of being tested and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection using cross-sectional analyses among 14.7 million community-dwelling people in Ontario, Canada. Among those with a diagnosis, we used separate analytic designs to compare predictors of people testing positive versus negative; symptomatic people testing positive versus testing negative; and people testing positive versus people not testing positive (i.e., testing negative or not being tested). Our analyses included tests conducted between Mar. 1 and June 20, 2020.

RESULTS

Of 14 695 579 people, we found that 758 691 were tested for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 25 030 (3.3%) had a positive test result. The further the odds of testing from the null, the more variability we generally observed in the odds of diagnosis across analytic design, particularly among individual factors. We found that there was less variability in testing by social determinants across analytic designs. Residing in areas with the highest household density (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.75-1.98), highest proportion of essential workers (adjusted OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.48-1.69), lowest educational attainment (adjusted OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.26-1.41) and highest proportion of recent immigrants (adjusted OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05-1.15) were consistently related to increased odds of SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis regardless of analytic design.

INTERPRETATION

Where testing is limited, our results suggest that risk factors may be better estimated using population comparators rather than test-negative comparators. Optimizing COVID-19 responses necessitates investment in and sufficient coverage of structural interventions tailored to heterogeneity in social determinants of risk, including household crowding, occupation and structural racism.

Dynamics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies post-COVID-19 in a Brazilian Amazon population

BACKGROUND

In this study, the prevalence and persistence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus) IgG was evaluated in volunteers 90 days after COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) diagnosis by correlating response dynamics with clinical conditions, epidemiological characteristics, and disease severity.

METHODS

The study recruited 200 volunteers aged 18 years or older of both sexes diagnosed with COVID-19. Of the 200 volunteers initially selected, the 135 individuals who underwent serological testing for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies on the first visit to the laboratory, were invited to return, after 90 days, and provide a new blood sample for a second assessment of the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody. Disease severity and longevity of symptoms were evaluated for each individual and associated with the serological profile.

RESULTS

Among the 135 individuals who underwent a previous serological test for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody, 125 showed reactivity to IgG (92.6%). Of the 125 individuals with detectable IgG in the first test, 87 (69.6%) showed persistence of this antibody after 90 days and 38 (30.4%) lost IgG reactivity in the second evaluation. The frequency of all reported symptoms was higher in individuals who maintained IgG persistence after 90 days of symptoms. Symptom manifestations lasted ≥21 days in the group with a persistent IgG response (39.6%) and ≤ 7 days in the group with a nonpersistent IgG response (50.0%). The length of hospital stay and supplemental oxygen use were higher in individuals with a persistent IgG response.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the present study show a high frequency of loss of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies within 3 months after COVID-19 diagnosis in the Brazilian Amazon.

Susceptibility and risk of SARS-COV-2 infection among middle-aged and older adults in Tarragona area, Spain

Objective

To analyse susceptibility/risk of suffering COVID-19 among adults with distinct underlying medical conditions.

Methods

Population-based cohort study involving 79,083 individuals ≥50 years old in Tarragona (Southern Catalonia, Spain). Baseline cohort characteristics (demographic, pre-existing comorbidities, chronic medications and vaccinations history) were established at study start (01/03/2020) and primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 occurred among cohort members throughout 01/03/2020–30/06/2020. Risk of suffering COVID-19 was evaluated by Cox regression, estimating multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for age/sex and pre-existing comorbidities.

Results

Across study period, 536 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were observed (mean incidence: 39.5 cases per 100,000 persons-week). In multivariable-analysis, increasing age/years (HR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00–1.02), nursing-home (HR: 20.19; 95% CI: 15.98–25.51), neurological disease (HR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.03–1.77), taking diuretics (HR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.10–1.75), antiplatelet (HR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.05–1.76) and benzodiazepines (HR: 1.24; 95% CI: 1.00–1.53) increased risk; conversely, taking angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.61–1.00), angiotensin-receptor-blockers (HR: 0.70; 95%CI: 0.51–0.96) and statins (HR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.58–0.96) were associated with reduced risk. Among community-dwelling individuals, pre-existing cancer, renal and cardiac disease appeared also related with an increased risk, whereas influenza vaccination was associated with reduced risk.

Conclusion

In a setting with relatively low incidence of COVID-19 across the first wave of pandemic period, increasing age, nursing-home residence and multiple comorbidities appear predisposing for COVID-19 among middle-aged/older adults. Conversely, statins, angiotensin-receptor blockers/inhibitors and influenza vaccination were related with decreased risk.

Is coronavirus disease (COVID-19) seasonal? A critical analysis of empirical and epidemiological studies at global and local scales

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has infected more than 50 million people and killed more than one million, worldwide, during less than a year course. COVID-19, which has already become the worst pandemic in the last 100 years, is still spreading worldwide. Since the beginning of the outbreak, it has been of particular interest to understand whether COVID-19 is seasonal; the finding might help for better planning and preparation for the fight against the disease. Over the past 12 months, numerous empirical and epidemiological studies have been performed to define the distinct diffusion patterns of COVID-19. Thereby, a wealth of data has accumulated on the relationship between various seasonal meteorological factors and COVID-19 transmissibility at global and local scales. In this review, we aimed to discuss whether COVID-19 exhibits any seasonal features in a global and local perspective by collecting and providing summaries of the findings from empirical and epidemiological studies on the COVID-19 pandemic during its first seasonal cycle.

6-month neurological and psychiatric outcomes in 236 379 survivors of COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Neurological and psychiatric sequelae of COVID-19 have been reported, but more data are needed to adequately assess the effects of COVID-19 on brain health. We aimed to provide robust estimates of incidence rates and relative risks of neurological and psychiatric diagnoses in patients in the 6 months following a COVID-19 diagnosis.

METHODS

For this retrospective cohort study and time-to-event analysis, we used data obtained from the TriNetX electronic health records network (with over 81 million patients). Our primary cohort comprised patients who had a COVID-19 diagnosis; one matched control cohort included patients diagnosed with influenza, and the other matched control cohort included patients diagnosed with any respiratory tract infection including influenza in the same period. Patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 or a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 were excluded from the control cohorts. All cohorts included patients older than 10 years who had an index event on or after Jan 20, 2020, and who were still alive on Dec 13, 2020. We estimated the incidence of 14 neurological and psychiatric outcomes in the 6 months after a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19: intracranial haemorrhage; ischaemic stroke; parkinsonism; Guillain-Barré syndrome; nerve, nerve root, and plexus disorders; myoneural junction and muscle disease; encephalitis; dementia; psychotic, mood, and anxiety disorders (grouped and separately); substance use disorder; and insomnia. Using a Cox model, we compared incidences with those in propensity score-matched cohorts of patients with influenza or other respiratory tract infections. We investigated how these estimates were affected by COVID-19 severity, as proxied by hospitalisation, intensive therapy unit (ITU) admission, and encephalopathy (delirium and related disorders). We assessed the robustness of the differences in outcomes between cohorts by repeating the analysis in different scenarios. To provide benchmarking for the incidence and risk of neurological and psychiatric sequelae, we compared our primary cohort with four cohorts of patients diagnosed in the same period with additional index events: skin infection, urolithiasis, fracture of a large bone, and pulmonary embolism.

FINDINGS

Among 236 379 patients diagnosed with COVID-19, the estimated incidence of a neurological or psychiatric diagnosis in the following 6 months was 33·62% (95% CI 33·17-34·07), with 12·84% (12·36-13·33) receiving their first such diagnosis. For patients who had been admitted to an ITU, the estimated incidence of a diagnosis was 46·42% (44·78-48·09) and for a first diagnosis was 25·79% (23·50-28·25). Regarding individual diagnoses of the study outcomes, the whole COVID-19 cohort had estimated incidences of 0·56% (0·50-0·63) for intracranial haemorrhage, 2·10% (1·97-2·23) for ischaemic stroke, 0·11% (0·08-0·14) for parkinsonism, 0·67% (0·59-0·75) for dementia, 17·39% (17·04-17·74) for anxiety disorder, and 1·40% (1·30-1·51) for psychotic disorder, among others. In the group with ITU admission, estimated incidences were 2·66% (2·24-3·16) for intracranial haemorrhage, 6·92% (6·17-7·76) for ischaemic stroke, 0·26% (0·15-0·45) for parkinsonism, 1·74% (1·31-2·30) for dementia, 19·15% (17·90-20·48) for anxiety disorder, and 2·77% (2·31-3·33) for psychotic disorder. Most diagnostic categories were more common in patients who had COVID-19 than in those who had influenza (hazard ratio [HR] 1·44, 95% CI 1·40-1·47, for any diagnosis; 1·78, 1·68-1·89, for any first diagnosis) and those who had other respiratory tract infections (1·16, 1·14-1·17, for any diagnosis; 1·32, 1·27-1·36, for any first diagnosis). As with incidences, HRs were higher in patients who had more severe COVID-19 (eg, those admitted to ITU compared with those who were not: 1·58, 1·50-1·67, for any diagnosis; 2·87, 2·45-3·35, for any first diagnosis). Results were robust to various sensitivity analyses and benchmarking against the four additional index health events.

INTERPRETATION

Our study provides evidence for substantial neurological and psychiatric morbidity in the 6 months after COVID-19 infection. Risks were greatest in, but not limited to, patients who had severe COVID-19. This information could help in service planning and identification of research priorities. Complementary study designs, including prospective cohorts, are needed to corroborate and explain these findings.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre.

Impact of Smoking on Women During the Covid-19 Pandemic

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) brought in 2020 an important challenge for health-care systems and authorities. Smoking and its influence on this disease remain, after months of the pandemic, one of the debatable risk factors. From the literature point of view, the focus of most articles is on smoking as a possible general risk factor for all analyzed populations. Women tend to represent a more significant population in exposed occupations. In our mini-review, we try to dig deeper, looking for gender-related health effects of smoking in this pandemic context, its effects on the infection with this novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), on illness severity, and on the rate of hospitalization and mortality. Despite the fact that the male gender is reported in many articles as a predictor of a poor outcome, we suggest that further research is needed to confirm or deny these relationships. Moreover, studies focusing specifically on women in these study populations are required.