Global terrestrial Human Footprint maps for 1993 and 2009

Remarkable Population Resilience in a North African Endemic Damselfly in the Face of Rapid Agricultural Transformation

Agriculture can be pervasive in its effect on wild nature, affecting various types of natural habitats, including lotic ecosystems. Here, we assess the extent of agricultural expansion on lotic systems in Northern Africa (Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco) and document its overlap with the distribution of an endemic damselfly, Platycnemis subdilatata Selys, using species distribution modeling. We found that agricultural land cover increased by 321% in the region between 1992 and 2005, and, in particular, the main watercourses experienced an increase in agricultural land cover from 21.4% in 1992 to 78.1% in 2005, together with an increase in the intensity of 226% in agricultural practices. We used capture-mark-recapture (CMR) surveys in terrestrial habitats surrounding a stream bordered by grassland and cropland in northeastern Algeria to determine demographic parameters and population size, as well as cropland occupancy. CMR modeling showed that the recapture and survival probabilities had an average of 0.14 (95%CI: 0.14-0.17) and 0.86 (0.85-0.87), respectively. We estimated a relatively large population of P. subdilatata (~1750 individuals) in terrestrial habitats. The occupancy of terrestrial habitats by adults was spatially structured by age. Our data suggest that P. subdilatata has survived agricultural expansion and intensification better than other local odonate species, mainly because it can occupy transformed landscapes, such as croplands and grasslands.

Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Monitoring in the Lazio Region (Central Italy)

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse 1894) is assuming an ever-increasing importance as invasive species in Europe and consequently as human health and nuisance concern. In Central Italy, the species has been recently involved in a chikungunya outbreak. A 3 yr Ae. albopictus monitoring was carried out in 21 municipalities of the Lazio region (Central Italy), belonging to three provinces. Samplings were performed on a weekly basis using ovitraps, in order to investigate climatic and spatial variables driving egg abundance and Ae. albopictus period of activity. A temperature of 10.4°C was indicated as lower threshold for the onset of egg-laying activity, together with a photoperiod of 13:11 (L:D) h. The whole oviposition activity lasted 8 mo (May-December), with 95% of eggs laid between early June and mid-November and a peak at the end of August. Egg abundance was positively influenced by accumulated temperature (AT) of the 4 wk preceding sampling and negatively by precipitation during the week before. Egg-laying activity dropped with decreasing AT, increasing rainfall, and with a photoperiod below 10:14 (L:D) h. Our results pinpointed the importance of fine-scaled spatial features on egg abundance. Some of these fine-scaled characteristics have been highlighted, such as the presence of vegetation and human footprint index. Our model estimated an almost doubled maximum number of laid eggs for the maximum value of human footprint. Compelling evidence of the relevance of fine-scaled characteristics was reported, describing cases where human-made breeding sites driven the abundance of Ae. albopictus.

Human impacts on global freshwater fish biodiversity

Freshwater fish represent one-fourth of the world's vertebrates and provide irreplaceable goods and services but are increasingly affected by human activities. A new index, Cumulative Change in Biodiversity Facets, revealed marked changes in biodiversity in >50% of the world's rivers covering >40% of the world's continental surface and >37% of the world's river length, whereas <14% of the world's surface and river length remain least impacted. Present-day rivers are more similar to each other and have more fish species with more diverse morphologies and longer evolutionary legacies. In temperate rivers, where the impact has been greatest, biodiversity changes were primarily due to river fragmentation and introduction of non-native species.

Relative effects of anthropogenic pressures, climate, and sampling design on the structure of pollination networks at the global scale

Pollinators provide crucial ecosystem services that underpin to wild plant reproduction and yields of insect-pollinated crops. Understanding the relative impacts of anthropogenic pressures and climate on the structure of plant-pollinator interaction networks is vital considering ongoing global change and pollinator decline. Our ability to predict the consequences of global change for pollinator assemblages worldwide requires global syntheses, but these analytical approaches may be hindered by variable methods among studies that either invalidate comparisons or mask biological phenomena. Here we conducted a synthetic analysis that assesses the relative impact of anthropogenic pressures and climatic variability, and accounts for heterogeneity in sampling methodology to reveal network responses at the global scale. We analyzed an extensive dataset, comprising 295 networks over 123 locations all over the world, and reporting over 50,000 interactions between flowering plant species and their insect visitors. Our study revealed that anthropogenic pressures correlate with an increase in generalism in pollination networks while pollinator richness and taxonomic composition are more related to climatic variables with an increase in dipteran pollinator richness associated with cooler temperatures. The contrasting response of species richness and generalism of the plant-pollinator networks stresses the importance of considering interaction network structure alongside diversity in ecological monitoring. In addition, differences in sampling design explained more variation than anthropogenic pressures or climate on both pollination networks richness and generalism, highlighting the crucial need to report and incorporate sampling design in macroecological comparative studies of pollination networks. As a whole, our study reveals a potential human impact on pollination networks at a global scale. However, further research is needed to evaluate potential consequences of loss of specialist species and their unique ecological interactions and evolutionary pathways on the ecosystem pollination function at a global scale.

Drivers of distributions and niches of North American cold-adapted amphibians: evaluating both climate and land use

Species distribution estimates are often used to understand the niche of a species; however, these are often based solely on climatic predictors. When the influences of biotic factors are ignored, erroneous inferences about range and niche may be made. We aimed to integrate climate data with a unique set of available land cover and land use data for the six cold-adapted amphibians of North America (Ambystoma macrodactylum, Anaxyrus hemiophrys, Anaxyrus boreas, Pseudacris maculata, Rana sylvatica, Rana luteiventris) to determine the relative importance of climate and non-climate drivers through the use of ecological niche models for present-day range estimates. We compared climate-only, land use-only, and combination models of climate and land use, derived from two different model selection techniques, to determine which was most likely to drive current distributions of cold-adapted amphibian species. Land use layers included land cover type, human population, vegetation type, ecoregion, and the overall human footprint. The most supported models included both climate and land use, with climate and human footprint variables having the highest permutation importance and percent contribution. Models that incorporated climate and land use data performed best as measured with AIC and AUC, although qualitatively most underestimated the northern range edge, implying potential sampling bias or locations of reduced habitat quality for these species in the northern area of the ranges. There were small differences in overall combination models dependent on the method of model selection. The overall effect sizes of landscape factors within the combination models were small except for one landscape feature: human footprint, which incorporated multiple aspects of anthropogenic change on the landscape, including human population density, travel access, and agricultural impact. This aspect of the landscape was just as important as climate, and counter to what we expected, the association was mostly positive, with a negative response only occurring at very high levels. This highlights the importance of moving beyond climate only species range estimates as land cover, specifically human impact, may be driving the patterns of species' ranges.

Changes in the human footprint in and around Indonesia's terrestrial national parks between 2012 and 2017

The human footprint (HF) was developed to measure of the impact of human activities on the environment. The human footprint has been found to be closely related to the vulnerability of protected areas around the world. In Indonesia, as nature conservation is still seen as hindering economic development, it is especially important to assess the human footprint in order to comprehend the overall pressures resulting from the various human activities on Indonesia's national parks. This study measured the change in the human footprint in and around 43 terrestrial national parks over 5 years, between 2012 and 2017. As many as 37 out of 43 NPs experienced an increase in the HF, ranging from 0.4 to 77.3%. Tanjung Puting in Kalimantan experienced the greatest increase (77.3%), while Ujung Kulon in Jawa Bali bioregion had the greatest decrease (10.5%). An increase in human population density and improved access to parks from roads, rivers and coastlines are the main drivers of increasing impacts on national parks.

An exploration of the protective effect of rodent species richness on the geographical expansion of Lassa fever in West Africa

BACKGROUND

Lassa fever (LF) is one of the most devastating rodent-borne diseases in West Africa, causing thousands of deaths annually. The geographical expansion of LF is also a concern; cases were recently identified in Ghana and Benin. Previous ecological studies have suggested that high natural-host biodiversity reduces the likelihood of spillover transmission of rodent-borne diseases, by suppressing the activities of reservoir species. However, the association of biodiversity with the geographical expansion of LF has not been the subject of epidemiological studies.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We conducted a spatial analysis based on sociodemographic, geographical, and ecological data, and found that higher rodent species richness was significantly associated with a lower risk of LF emergence in West Africa from 2008 to 2017 (Odds Ratio = 0.852, 95% Credible Interval = 0.745-0.971).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The results reinforce the importance of the 'One Health' approach by demonstrating that a high level of biodiversity could benefit human health.

The Impact of Human Pressure and Climate Change on the Habitat Availability and Protection of Cypripedium (Orchidaceae) in Northeast China

Human pressure on the environment and climate change are two important factors contributing to species decline and overall loss of biodiversity. Orchids may be particularly vulnerable to human-induced losses of habitat and the pervasive impact of global climate change. In this study, we simulated the extent of the suitable habitat of three species of the terrestrial orchid genus Cypripedium in northeast China and assessed the impact of human pressure and climate change on the future distribution of these species. Cypripedium represents a genus of long-lived terrestrial orchids that contains several species with great ornamental value. Severe habitat destruction and overcollection have led to major population declines in recent decades. Our results showed that at present the most suitable habitats of the three species can be found in Da Xing’an Ling, Xiao Xing’an Ling and in the Changbai Mountains. Human activity was predicted to have the largest impact on species distributions in the Changbai Mountains. In addition, climate change was predicted to lead to a shift in distribution towards higher elevations and to an increased fragmentation of suitable habitats of the three investigated Cypripedium species in the study area. These results will be valuable for decision makers to identify areas that are likely to maintain viable Cypripedium populations in the future and to develop conservation strategies to protect the remaining populations of these enigmatic orchid species.

Woody-biomass projections and drivers of change in sub-Saharan Africa

Africa's ecosystems have an important role in global carbon dynamics, yet consensus is lacking regarding the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and the potential impacts to carbon storage in response to changes in climate, land use, and other Anthropocene risks. Here, we explore the socio-environmental conditions that shaped the contemporary distribution of woody vegetation across sub-Saharan Africa and evaluate ecosystem response to multiple scenarios of climate change, anthropogenic pressures, and fire disturbance. Our projections suggest climate change will have a small but negative effect on above ground woody biomass at the continental scale, and the compounding effects of population growth, increasing human pressures, and socio-climatic driven changes in fire behavior further exacerbate climate-driven trends. Relatively modest continental-scale trends obscure much larger regional perturbations, with climatic and anthropogenic factors leading to increased carbon storage potential in East Africa, offset by large deficits in West, Central, and Southern Africa.

New forest biomass carbon stock estimates in Northeast Asia based on multisource data

Forests play an important role in both regional and global C cycles. However, the spatial patterns of biomass C density and underlying factors in Northeast Asia remain unclear. Here, we characterized spatial patterns and important drivers of biomass C density for Northeast Asia, based on multisource data from in situ forest inventories, as well as remote sensing, bioclimatic, topographic, and human footprint data. We derived, for the first time, high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) maps of the current and future forest biomass C density for this region. Based on these maps, we estimated that current biomass C stock in northeastern China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Republic of Korea to be 2.53, 0.40, and 0.35 Pg C, respectively. Biomass C stock in Northeast Asia has increased by 20%-46% over the past 20 years, of which 40%-76% was contributed by planted forests. We estimated the biomass C stock in 2080 to be 6.13 and 6.50 Pg C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which exceeded the present region-wide C stock value by 2.85-3.22 Pg C, and were 8%-14% higher than the baseline C stock value (5.70 Pg C). The spatial patterns of biomass C densities were found to vary greatly across the Northeast Asia, and largely decided by mean diameter at breast height, dominant height, elevation, and human footprint. Our results suggest that reforestation and forest conservation in Northeast Asia have effectively expanded the size of the carbon sink in the region, and sustainable forest management practices such as precision forestry and close forest monitoring for fire and insect outbreaks would be important to maintain and improve this critical carbon sink for Northeast Asia.

High-resolution land value maps reveal underestimation of conservation costs in the United States

The justification and targeting of conservation policy rests on reliable measures of public and private benefits from competing land uses. Advances in Earth system observation and modeling permit the mapping of public ecosystem services at unprecedented scales and resolutions, prompting new proposals for land protection policies and priorities. Data on private benefits from land use are not available at similar scales and resolutions, resulting in a data mismatch with unknown consequences. Here I show that private benefits from land can be quantified at large scales and high resolutions, and that doing so can have important implications for conservation policy models. I developed high-resolution estimates of fair market value of private lands in the contiguous United States by training tree-based ensemble models on 6 million land sales. The resulting estimates predict conservation cost with up to 8.5 times greater accuracy than earlier proxies. Studies using coarser cost proxies underestimate conservation costs, especially at the expensive tail of the distribution. This has led to underestimations of policy budgets by factors of up to 37.5 in recent work. More accurate cost accounting will help policy makers acknowledge the full magnitude of contemporary conservation challenges and can help improve the targeting of public ecosystem service investments.

Assessment of the quality of European silver eels and tentative approach to trace the origin of contaminants - A European overview

The European eel is critically endangered. Although the quality of silver eels is essential for their reproduction, little is known about the effects of multiple contaminants on the spawning migration and the European eel management plan does not take this into account. To address this knowledge gap, we sampled 482 silver eels from 12 catchments across Europe and developed methods to assess three aspects of eel quality: muscular lipid content (N = 169 eels), infection with Anguillicola crassus (N = 482), and contamination by persistent organic pollutants (POPs, N = 169) and trace elements (TEs, N = 75). We developed a standardized eel quality risks index (EQR) using these aspects for the subsample of 75 female eels. Among 169 eels, 33% seem to have enough muscular lipids content to reach the Sargasso Sea to reproduce. Among 482 silver eels, 93% were infected by A. crassus at least once during their lifetime. All contaminants were above the limit of quantification, except the 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE), Ag and V. The contamination by POPs was heterogeneous between catchments while TEs were relatively homogeneous, suggesting a multi-scale adaptation of management plans. The EQR revealed that eels from Warwickshire were most impacted by brominated flame-retardants and agricultural contaminants, those from Scheldt were most impacted by agricultural and construction activities, PCBs, coal burning, and land use, while Frémur eels were best characterized by lower lipid contents and high parasitic and BTBPE levels. There was a positive correlation between EQR and a human footprint index highlighting the capacity of silver eels for biomonitoring human activities and the potential impact on the suitability of the aquatic environment for eel population health. EQR therefore represents a step forward in the standardization and mapping of eel quality risks, which will help identify priorities and strategies for restocking freshwater ecosystems.

The magnitude and extent of edge effects on vascular epiphytes across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Edge effects are ubiquitous landscape processes influencing over 70% of forest cover worldwide. However, little is known about how edge effects influence the vertical stratification of communities in forest fragments. We combined a spatially implicit and a spatially explicit approach to quantify the magnitude and extent of edge effects on canopy and understorey epiphytic plants in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Within the human-modified landscape, species richness, species abundance and community composition remained practically unchanged along the interior-edge gradient, pointing to severe biotic homogenisation at all strata. This is because the extent of edge effects reached at least 500 m, potentially leaving just 0.24% of the studied landscape unaffected by edges. We extrapolated our findings to the entire Atlantic Forest and found that just 19.4% of the total existing area is likely unaffected by edge effects and provide suitable habitat conditions for forest-dependent epiphytes. Our results suggest that the resources provided by the current forest cover might be insufficient to support the future of epiphyte communities. Preserving large continuous ‘intact’ forests is probably the only effective conservation strategy for vascular epiphytes.

Applying species distribution models in public health research by predicting snakebite risk using venomous snakes' habitat suitability as an indicating factor

Snakebite envenoming is an important public health problem in Iran, despite its risk not being quantified. This study aims to use venomous snakes' habitat suitability as an indicator of snakebite risk, to identify high-priority areas for snakebite management across the country. Thus, an ensemble approach using five distribution modelling methods: Generalized Boosted Models, Generalized Additive Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling, Generalized Linear Models, and Random Forest was applied to produce a spatial snakebite risk model for Iran. To achieve this, four venomous snakes' habitat suitability (Macrovipera lebetinus, Echis carinatus, Pseudocerastes persicus and Naja oxiana) were modelled and then multiplied. These medically important snakes are responsible for the most snakebite incidents in Iran. Multiplying habitat suitability models of the four snakes showed that the northeast of Iran (west of Khorasan-e-Razavi province) has the highest snakebite risk in the country. In addition, villages that were at risk of envenoming from the four snakes were identified. Results revealed that 51,112 villages are at risk of envenoming from M. lebetinus, 30,339 from E. carinatus, 51,657 from P. persicus and 12,124 from N. oxiana. Precipitation seasonality was identified as the most important variable influencing distribution of the P. persicus, E. carinatus and M. lebetinus in Iran. Precipitation of the driest quarter was the most important predictor of suitable habitats of the N. oxiana. Since climatic variables play an important role in shaping the distribution of the four venomous snakes in Iran, thus their distribution may alter with changing climate. This paper demonstrates application of species distribution modelling in public health research and identified potential snakebite risk areas in Iran by using venomous snakes' habitat suitability models as an indicating factor. Results of this study can be used in snakebite and human-snake conflict management in Iran. We recommend increasing public awareness of snakebite envenoming and education of local people in areas which identified with the highest snakebite risk.

Hidden Markov Models reveal a clear human footprint on the movements of highly mobile African wild dogs

Large carnivores have experienced considerable range contraction, increasing the importance of movement across human-altered landscapes between small, isolated populations. African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are exceptionally wide-ranging, and recolonization is an important element of their persistence at broad scales. The competition-movement-connection hypothesis suggests that adaptations to move through areas that are unfavorable due to dominant competitors might promote the ability of subordinate competitors (like wild dogs) to move through areas that are unfavorable due to humans. Here, we used hidden Markov models to test how wild dog movements were affected by the Human Footprint Index in areas inside and outside of South Luangwa National Park. Movements were faster and more directed when outside the National Park, but slowed where the human footprint was stronger. Our results can be directly and quantitatively applied to connectivity planning, and we use them to identify ways to better understand differences between species in recent loss of connectivity.

Global distribution and conservation status of ecologically rare mammal and bird species

Identifying species that are both geographically restricted and functionally distinct, i.e. supporting rare traits and functions, is of prime importance given their risk of extinction and their potential contribution to ecosystem functioning. We use global species distributions and functional traits for birds and mammals to identify the ecologically rare species, understand their characteristics, and identify hotspots. We find that ecologically rare species are disproportionately represented in IUCN threatened categories, insufficiently covered by protected areas, and for some of them sensitive to current and future threats. While they are more abundant overall in countries with a low human development index, some countries with high human development index are also hotspots of ecological rarity, suggesting transboundary responsibility for their conservation. Altogether, these results state that more conservation emphasis should be given to ecological rarity given future environmental conditions and the need to sustain multiple ecosystem processes in the long-term.

Spatial epidemiology of yellow fever: Identification of determinants of the 2016-2018 epidemics and at-risk areas in Brazil

Optimise control strategies of infectious diseases, identify factors that favour the circulation of pathogens, and propose risk maps are crucial challenges for global health. Ecological niche modelling, once relying on an adequate framework and environmental descriptors can be a helpful tool for such purposes. Despite the existence of a vaccine, yellow fever (YF) is still a public health issue. Brazil faced massive sylvatic YF outbreaks from the end of 2016 up to mid-2018, but cases in human and non-human primates have been recorded until the beginning of 2020. Here we used both human and monkey confirmed YF cases from two epidemic periods (2016/2017 and 2017/2018) to describe the spatial distribution of the cases and explore how biotic and abiotic factors drive their occurrence. The distribution of YF cases largely overlaps for humans and monkeys, and a contraction of the spatial extent associated with a southward displacement is observed during the second period of the epidemics. More contributive variables to the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of cases were related to biotic factors (mammal richness), abiotic factors (temperature and precipitation), and some human-related variables (population density, human footprint, and human vaccination coverage). Both projections of the most favourable conditions showed similar trends with a contraction of the more at-risk areas. Once extrapolated at a large scale, the Amazon basin remains at lower risk, although surrounding forest regions and notably the North-West region, would face a higher risk. Spatial projections of infectious diseases often relied on climatic variables only; here for both models, we instead highlighted the importance of considering local biotic conditions, hosts vulnerability, social and epidemiological factors to run the spatial risk analysis correctly: all YF cases occurring later on, in 2019 and 2020, were observed in the predicted at-risk areas.

A policy-driven framework for conserving the best of Earth's remaining moist tropical forests

Tropical forests vary in composition, structure and function such that not all forests have similar ecological value. This variability is caused by natural and anthropogenic disturbance regimes, which influence the ability of forests to support biodiversity, store carbon, mediate water yield and facilitate human well-being. While international environmental agreements mandate protecting and restoring forests, only forest extent is typically considered, while forest quality is ignored. Consequently, the locations and loss rates of forests of high ecological value are unknown and coordinated strategies for conserving these forests remain undeveloped. Here, we map locations high in forest structural integrity as a measure of ecological quality on the basis of recently developed fine-resolution maps of three-dimensional forest structure, integrated with human pressure across the global moist tropics. Our analyses reveal that tall forests with closed canopies and low human pressure typical of natural conditions comprise half of the global humid or moist tropical forest estate, largely limited to the Amazon and Congo basins. Most of these forests have no formal protection and, given recent rates of loss, are at substantial risk. With the rapid disappearance of these 'best of the last' forests at stake, we provide a policy-driven framework for their conservation and restoration, and recommend locations to maintain protections, add new protections, mitigate deleterious human impacts and restore forest structure.

Effectiveness of protected areas in conserving tropical forest birds

Protected areas (PAs) are the cornerstones of global biodiversity conservation efforts, but to fulfil this role they must be effective at conserving the ecosystems and species that occur within their boundaries. Adequate monitoring datasets that allow comparing biodiversity between protected and unprotected sites are lacking in tropical regions. Here we use the largest citizen science biodiversity dataset – eBird – to quantify the extent to which protected areas in eight tropical forest biodiversity hotspots are effective at retaining bird diversity. We find generally positive effects of protection on the diversity of bird species that are forest-dependent, endemic to the hotspots, or threatened or Near Threatened, but not on overall bird species richness. Furthermore, we show that in most of the hotspots examined this benefit is driven by protected areas preventing both forest loss and degradation. Our results provide evidence that, on average, protected areas contribute measurably to conserving bird species in some of the world’s most diverse and threatened terrestrial ecosystems.

Assessing the effectiveness of protected areas requires sufficient monitoring data inside and outside of protected areas; such data are lacking in many tropical regions. Here the authors use robust citizen science data on bird occupancy to show that protected areas are effective in maintaining bird species diversity across eight tropical biodiversity hotspots.

Just ten percent of the global terrestrial protected area network is structurally connected via intact land

Land free of direct anthropogenic disturbance is considered essential for achieving biodiversity conservation outcomes but is rapidly eroding. In response, many nations are increasing their protected area (PA) estates, but little consideration is given to the context of the surrounding landscape. This is despite the fact that structural connectivity between PAs is critical in a changing climate and mandated by international conservation targets. Using a high-resolution assessment of human pressure, we show that while ~40% of the terrestrial planet is intact, only 9.7% of Earth's terrestrial protected network can be considered structurally connected. On average, 11% of each country or territory's PA estate can be considered connected. As the global community commits to bolder action on abating biodiversity loss, placement of future PAs will be critical, as will an increased focus on landscape-scale habitat retention and restoration efforts to ensure those important areas set aside for conservation outcomes will remain (or become) connected.

Spatial modeling, risk mapping, change detection, and outbreak trend analysis of coronavirus (COVID-19) in Iran (days between February 19 and June 14, 2020)

OBJECTIVES

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) represents a major pandemic threat that has spread to more than 212 countries with more than 432,902 recorded deaths and 7,898,442 confirmed cases worldwide so far (on June 14, 2020). It is crucial to investigate the spatial drivers to prevent and control the epidemic of COVID-19.

METHODS

This is the first comprehensive study of COVID-19 in Iran; and it carries out spatial modeling, risk mapping, change detection, and outbreak trend analysis of the disease spread. Four main steps were taken: comparison of Iranian coronavirus data with the global trends, prediction of mortality trends using regression modeling, spatial modeling, risk mapping, and change detection using the random forest (RF) machine learning technique (MLT), and validation of the modeled risk map.

RESULTS

The results show that from February 19 to June 14, 2020, the average growth rates (GR) of COVID-19 deaths and the total number of COVID-19 cases in Iran were 1.08 and 1.10, respectively. Based on the World Health Organisation (WHO) data, Iran's fatality rate (deaths/0.1M pop) is 10.53. Other countries' fatality rates were, for comparison, Belgium - 83.32, UK - 61.39, Spain - 58.04, Italy - 56.73, Sweden - 48.28, France - 45.04, USA - 35.52, Canada - 21.49, Brazil - 20.10, Peru - 19.70, Chile - 16.20, Mexico- 12.80, and Germany - 10.58. The fatality rate for China is 0.32 (deaths/0.1M pop). Over time, the heatmap of the infected areas identified two critical time intervals for the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran. The provinces were classified in terms of disease and death rates into a large primary group and three provinces that had critical outbreaks were separate from the others. The heatmap of countries of the world shows that China and Italy were distinguished from other countries in terms of nine viral infection-related parameters. The regression models for death cases showed an increasing trend but with some evidence of turning. A polynomial relationship was identified between the coronavirus infection rate and the province population density. Also, a third-degree polynomial regression model for deaths showed an increasing trend recently, indicating that subsequent measures taken to cope with the outbreak have been insufficient and ineffective. The general trend of deaths in Iran is similar to the world's, but Iran's shows lower volatility. Change detection of COVID-19 risk maps with a random forest model for the period from March 11 to March 18 showed an increasing trend of COVID-19 in Iran's provinces. It is worth noting that using the LASSO MLT to evaluate variables' importance, indicated that the most important variables were the distance from bus stations, bakeries, hospitals, mosques, ATMs (automated teller machines), banks, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month.

CONCLUSIONS

We believe that this study's risk maps are the primary, fundamental step to take for managing and controlling COVID-19 in Iran and its provinces.

Reducing human pressure on farmland could rescue China's declining wintering geese

BACKGROUND

While goose populations worldwide benefit from food provided by farmland, China's threatened wintering goose populations have failed to capitalize on farmland. It has been proposed that, due to an exceptionally intense human pressure on Chinese farmland, geese cannot exploit farmland in their wintering sites and hence are confined to their deteriorating natural habitat. If this were true, locally decreasing this human pressure on farmland 'refuges' would represent a promising conservation measure.

METHODS

We investigate habitat use of two declining migratory goose species in their core wintering (Yangtze River Floodplain) and stopover (Northeast China Plain) regions, compare the human pressure level at both regions, and adopt a mixed-effect resource selection function model to test how human pressure, food resource type (farmland or wetland/grass), distance to roosts, and their interaction terms influence the utilization of food resources for each species and region. To this aim we use satellite tracking of 28 tundra bean geese Anser serrirostris and 55 greater white-fronted geese A. albifrons, a newly produced 30 m land cover map, and the terrestrial human footprint map.

RESULTS

Geese use farmland intensively at their stopover site, but hardly at their wintering site, though both regions have farmland available at a similar proportion. The human pressure on both farmland and wetland/grass is significantly lower at the stopover region compared to the wintering region. At both sites, the two goose species actively select for farmland and/or wetland/grass with a relatively low human pressure, positioned relatively close to their roosting sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that if human pressure were to decrease in the farmlands close to the roost, China's wintering geese could benefit from farmland. We recommend setting aside farmland near roosting sites that already experiences a relatively low human pressure as goose refuges, and adopt measures to further reduce human pressure and increase food quality and quantity, to help counter the decline of China's wintering goose populations. Our study has important conservation implications and offers a practical measure for migratory waterfowl conservation in areas of high human-wildlife conflict.

No net insect abundance and diversity declines across US Long Term Ecological Research sites

Recent reports of dramatic declines in insect abundance suggest grave consequences for global ecosystems and human society. Most evidence comes from Europe, however, leaving uncertainty about insect population trends worldwide. We used >5,300 time series for insects and other arthropods, collected over 4-36 years at monitoring sites representing 68 different natural and managed areas, to search for evidence of declines across the United States. Some taxa and sites showed decreases in abundance and diversity while others increased or were unchanged, yielding net abundance and biodiversity trends generally indistinguishable from zero. This lack of overall increase or decline was consistent across arthropod feeding groups and was similar for heavily disturbed versus relatively natural sites. The apparent robustness of US arthropod populations is reassuring. Yet, this result does not diminish the need for continued monitoring and could mask subtler changes in species composition that nonetheless endanger insect-provided ecosystem services.

Understanding the spatial-temporal variation of human footprint in Jiangsu Province, China, its anthropogenic and natural drivers and potential implications

Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of human pressures provides a foundation for understanding interactions between human and environment and managing human activities for a sustainable development. This study is the first attempt focused within China at calculating the spatial-temporal human footprint and its driving forces in a highly urbanized area with intensive human activities. Population, land use, night-time lights, and road impacts were used to generate human footprint maps of Jiangsu Province for 2000, 2010 and 2015 with a resolution of 1 km * 1 km. Five natural drivers and four anthropogenic drivers were employed to construct generalized additive models for explaining the spatial variation of human footprint and its change. It shows that a large difference is between the human footprint in northern and southern Jiangsu, and the pattern of human pressures conforms to the "Matthew effect", with spatial aggregation of high human footprint areas accelerating. Slope, industrialization level are significant in explaining the spatial variation of human footprint in 2000, 2010 and 2015. The effect of natural drivers decreases for explaining the human footprint over time. Furthermore, annual precipitation, mean annual temperature and urban per capita disposable income are also significant drivers for human footprint in 2010 and 2015. And the increasing of human footprint slows with increasing of industrialization level. The difference of industrialization level and urban income between northern and southern Jiangsu mainly caused different driving pattern for human footprint and its change. Our study has generated new insights on the interaction pattern between human and nature in highly developed regions based on the human footprint concept, and can provide references for managing human activities in similar regions rapid socioeconomic development.

Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land

There is mounting evidence of species redistribution as climate warms. Yet, our knowledge of the coupling between species range shifts and isotherm shifts remains limited. Here, we introduce BioShifts-a global geo-database of 30,534 range shifts. Despite a spatial imbalance towards the most developed regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a taxonomic bias towards the most charismatic animals and plants of the planet, data show that marine species are better at tracking isotherm shifts, and move towards the pole six times faster than terrestrial species. More specifically, we find that marine species closely track shifting isotherms in warm and relatively undisturbed waters (for example, the Central Pacific Basin) or in cold waters subject to high human pressures (for example, the North Sea). On land, human activities impede the capacity of terrestrial species to track isotherm shifts in latitude, with some species shifting in the opposite direction to isotherms. Along elevational gradients, species follow the direction of isotherm shifts but at a pace that is much slower than expected, especially in areas with warm climates. Our results suggest that terrestrial species are lagging behind shifting isotherms more than marine species, which is probably related to the interplay between the wider thermal safety margin of terrestrial versus marine species and the more constrained physical environment for dispersal in terrestrial versus marine habitats.

Human-geographic effects on variations in the population genetics of Sinotaia quadrata (Gastropoda: Viviparidae) that historically migrated from continental East Asia to Japan

BACKGROUND

Anthropogenic factors potentially affect observed biogeographical patterns in population genetics, but the effects of ancient human activities on the original patterns created by natural processes are unknown. Sinotaia quadrata, a widely distributed freshwater snail species in East Asia, was used to investigate this issue. It is unclear whether S. quadrata in Japan was introduced from China and how different human uses and varying geographic patterns affect the contemporary population genetics between the two regions. Thus, we investigated the demography of S. quadrata and detected its genetic structure in Japan and continental East Asia.

RESULTS

Sinotaia quadrata populations first naturally migrated from continental East Asia to Japan, which is associated with the ancient period in Japanese geohistory (about 70,000 years ago). They were then artificially introduced in association with agriculture expansion by human movements in two recent periods (about 8,000 and 1,200 years ago). Populations in different parts of Japan have their own sources. Natural migration in the ancient period and artificial introduction in the recent period suggest that the population distribution is affected by both the geohistory of East Asia and the history of human expansion. In the background of the historical migration and introduction, contemporary populations in the two regions show different genetic patterns. Population divergence levels were significantly correlated with geographical patterns in Japan and significantly correlated with human interventions variables in continental East Asia, suggesting that long-term geographical isolation is likely the major factor that shaped the contemporary population genetics in Japan, while modern human uses are likely the major factor in continental East Asia.

CONCLUSIONS

Our preliminary results show a complex demography and unusual genetic patterns in the contemporary populations for a common freshwater snail and are of significance to determine the historical formation and contemporary patterns of biogeography in Japan and continental East Asia.

Reframing the Wilderness Concept can Bolster Collaborative Conservation

Indigenous territories represent ~45% of land categorized as wilderness in the Amazon, but account for <15% of all forest loss on this land. At a time when the Amazon faces unprecedented pressures, overcoming polarization and aligning the goals of wilderness defenders and Indigenous peoples is paramount, to avoid environmental degradation.

Potential Roles of Environmental and Socio-Economic Factors in the Distribution of Insecticide Resistance in Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (Culicidae: Diptera) Across Togo, West Africa

Vector control strategies recommended by the World Health Organization are threatened by resistance of Anopheles mosquitoes to insecticides. Information on the distribution of resistant genotypes of malaria vectors is increasingly needed to address the problem. Ten years of published and unpublished data on malaria vector susceptibility/resistance and resistance genes have been collected across Togo. Relationships between the spatial distribution of resistance status and environmental, socio-economic, and landscape features were tested using randomization tests, and calculating Spearman rank and Pearson correlation coefficients between mosquito mortality and different gridded values. Anopheles gambiae sensu lato was resistant to DDT, pyrethroids, and the majority of carbamates and organophosphates. Three sibling species were found (i.e., An. gambiae, Anopheles coluzzii, and Anopheles arabiensis) with four resistance genes, including kdr (L1014F, L1014S, and N1575Y) and ace1 (G119S). The most frequent resistance gene was L1014F. Overall, no association was found between the susceptibility/resistance status and environmental features, suggesting that evolution of resistance may be most closely related to extreme selection from local insecticide use. Nevertheless, further research is necessary for firm conclusions about this lack of association, and the potential role of landscape characteristics such as presence of crops and percentage of tree cover.

Consistent habitat preference underpins the geographically divergent autumn migration of individual Mongolian common shelducks

While many avian populations follow narrow, well-defined “migratory corridors,” individuals from other populations undertake highly divergent individual migration routes, using widely dispersed stopover sites en route between breeding and wintering areas, although the reasons for these differences are rarely investigated. We combined individual GPS-tracked migration data from Mongolian-breeding common shelduck Tadorna tadorna and remote sensing datasets, to investigate habitat selection at inland stopover sites used by these birds during dispersed autumn migration, to explain their divergent migration patterns. We used generalized linear mixed models to investigate population-level resource selection, and generalized linear models to investigate stopover-site-level resource selection. The population-level model showed that water recurrence had the strongest positive effect on determining birds’ occupancy at staging sites, while cultivated land and grassland land cover type had strongest negative effects; effects of other land cover types were negative but weaker, particularly effects of water seasonality and presence of a human footprint, which were positive but weak or non-significant, respectively. Although stopover-site-level models showed variable resource selection patterns, the variance partitioning and cross-prediction AUC scores corroborated high inter-individual consistency in habitat selection at inland stopover sites during the dispersed autumn migration. These results suggest that the geographically widespread distribution (and generally rarity) of suitable habitats explained the spatially divergent autumn migrations of Mongolian breeding common shelduck, rather than the species showing flexible autumn staging habitat occupancy.

Wave-like Patterns of Plant Phenology Determine Ungulate Movement Tactics

Animals exhibit a diversity of movement tactics [1]. Tracking resources that change across space and time is predicted to be a fundamental driver of animal movement [2]. For example, some migratory ungulates (i.e., hooved mammals) closely track the progression of highly nutritious plant green-up, a phenomenon called "green-wave surfing" [3-5]. Yet general principles describing how the dynamic nature of resources determine movement tactics are lacking [6]. We tested an emerging theory that predicts surfing and the existence of migratory behavior will be favored in environments where green-up is fleeting and moves sequentially across large landscapes (i.e., wave-like green-up) [7]. Landscapes exhibiting wave-like patterns of green-up facilitated surfing and explained the existence of migratory behavior across 61 populations of four ungulate species on two continents (n = 1,696 individuals). At the species level, foraging benefits were equivalent between tactics, suggesting that each movement tactic is fine-tuned to local patterns of plant phenology. For decades, ecologists have sought to understand how animals move to select habitat, commonly defining habitat as a set of static patches [8, 9]. Our findings indicate that animal movement tactics emerge as a function of the flux of resources across space and time, underscoring the need to redefine habitat to include its dynamic attributes. As global habitats continue to be modified by anthropogenic disturbance and climate change [10], our synthesis provides a generalizable framework to understand how animal movement will be influenced by altered patterns of resource phenology.

Spatial tick bite exposure and associated risk factors in Scandinavia

Tick-borne diseases are emerging and re-emerging threats causing public health concerns in Europe and North America. Prevention and control requires understanding of human exposure and behaviour. The aim was to measure exposure to tick bites across Scandinavia, its spatial distribution and the associated risk factors. Methods We sent a web-based survey to a randomly chosen population and analysed answers by Principal Component Analysis and Chi-Square. Individual responses were aggregated at the municipality level to assess the spatial distribution of bites. Results Nearly 60% of adults reported bites at low levels (1-5 bites); however, the majority were not in their resident municipality. We found two spatial profiles: In their home municipalities, people were most often bitten in less, but not the least, urbanized areas. When visiting other municipalities, people were most frequently bitten in peri-urban areas. Running/walking in the forest, gardening, and paddling/rowing were activities most strongly associated with bites. Conclusion Tick bites affect the entire Scandinavian population, with a higher risk in Sweden compared to Denmark and Norway. The frequency of observation of ticks in the environment or on pets might be used as a proxy for the actual risk of exposure to tick bites. Our results indicates that urban-dwelling outdoor enthusiasts and inhabitants of rural areas must be equally targeted for prevention campaigns.

Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land

There is mounting evidence of species redistribution as climate warms. Yet, our knowledge of the coupling between species range shifts and isotherm shifts remains limited. Here, we introduce BioShifts-a global geo-database of 30,534 range shifts. Despite a spatial imbalance towards the most developed regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a taxonomic bias towards the most charismatic animals and plants of the planet, data show that marine species are better at tracking isotherm shifts, and move towards the pole six times faster than terrestrial species. More specifically, we find that marine species closely track shifting isotherms in warm and relatively undisturbed waters (for example, the Central Pacific Basin) or in cold waters subject to high human pressures (for example, the North Sea). On land, human activities impede the capacity of terrestrial species to track isotherm shifts in latitude, with some species shifting in the opposite direction to isotherms. Along elevational gradients, species follow the direction of isotherm shifts but at a pace that is much slower than expected, especially in areas with warm climates. Our results suggest that terrestrial species are lagging behind shifting isotherms more than marine species, which is probably related to the interplay between the wider thermal safety margin of terrestrial versus marine species and the more constrained physical environment for dispersal in terrestrial versus marine habitats.

Reconciling global priorities for conserving biodiversity habitat

Degradation and loss of natural habitat is the major driver of the current global biodiversity crisis. Most habitat conservation efforts to date have targeted small areas of highly threatened habitat, but emerging debate suggests that retaining large intact natural systems may be just as important. We reconcile these perspectives by integrating fine-resolution global data on habitat condition and species assemblage turnover to identify Earth's high-value biodiversity habitat. These are areas in better condition than most other locations predicted to have once supported a similar assemblage of species and are found within both intact regions and human-dominated landscapes. However, only 18.6% of this high-value habitat is currently protected globally. Averting permanent biodiversity loss requires clear, spatially explicit targets for retaining these unprotected high-value habitats.

Topography and human pressure in mountain ranges alter expected species responses to climate change

Climate change is leading to widespread elevational shifts thought to increase species extinction risk in mountains. We integrate digital elevation models with a metric of human pressure to examine changes in the amount of intact land area available for species undergoing elevational range shifts in all major mountain ranges globally (n = 1010). Nearly 60% of mountainous area is under intense human pressure, predominantly at low elevations and mountain bases. Consequently, upslope range shifts generally resulted in modeled species at lower elevations expanding into areas of lower human pressure and, due to complex topography, encountering more intact land area relative to their starting position. Such gains were often attenuated at high elevations as land-use constraints diminished and topographic constraints increased. Integrating patterns of topography and human pressure is essential for accurate species vulnerability assessments under climate change, as priorities for protecting, connecting, and restoring mountain landscapes may otherwise be misguided.

It is often assumed that many species will move upslope in mountainous regions as the climate warms. However, the authors show here that as many species move to higher elevations they will enter areas of lower human footprint but potentially more constraining topography.

Mapping human's digital footprints on the Tibetan Plateau from multi-source geospatial big data

It is a challenge to accurately quantify short-term dynamic human impact on the environment, which is the key to ecosystem and biodiversity conservation. Human's digital footprints are widely used as a proxy of dynamic human impact. This study developed a method to accurately and objectively map the dynamic human's digital footprints in the Tibetan Plateau using the geospatial big datasets, including the numbers of smartphone location request, microblog check-ins, and geo-tagged flicker photos. We developed a method to calculate the fused digital footprint intensity (FDFI) by integrating the location information in the three datasets. The magnitude of the FDFI was converted to a footprint intensity score (FIS), which was then used to infer the human impact. Results show that the average FIS values in Qinghai and Tibet are low (0.12 and 0.04, respectively). The grids with a positive FIS only account for 5.99% of the Tibetan Plateau and are mainly found in the cities and along the transportation networks. The FIS is also strongly correlated to land use and the positive values are mainly found in the built-up and agricultural lands. All other land use categories tend to have near zero FIS values. We concluded that human activities overall show very limited impact on the Tibetan Plateau and most of the impact is found in the built-up and agricultural lands.

A global database of soil nematode abundance and functional group composition

As the most abundant animals on earth, nematodes are a dominant component of the soil community. They play critical roles in regulating biogeochemical cycles and vegetation dynamics within and across landscapes and are an indicator of soil biological activity. Here, we present a comprehensive global dataset of soil nematode abundance and functional group composition. This dataset includes 6,825 georeferenced soil samples from all continents and biomes. For geospatial mapping purposes these samples are aggregated into 1,933 unique 1-km pixels, each of which is linked to 73 global environmental covariate data layers. Altogether, this dataset can help to gain insight into the spatial distribution patterns of soil nematode abundance and community composition, and the environmental drivers shaping these patterns.

Global opportunities and challenges for transboundary conservation

Rapid biodiversity loss has prompted global action to prevent further declines, yet coordinated conservation action among nations remains elusive. As a result, species with ranges that span international borders-which include 53.8% of terrestrial birds, mammals and amphibians-are in increasing peril through uncoordinated management and artificial barriers to human movement, such as border fences. Transboundary conservation initiatives represent a unique opportunity to better protect species through coordinated management across national borders. Using metrics of governance, collaboration and human pressure, we provide an index of transboundary conservation feasibility to assess global opportunities and challenges for different nations. While the transboundary conservation potential of securing multinational threatened species varied substantially, there are distinct opportunities in South-East Asia, Northern Europe, North America and South America. But to successfully avert the loss of transboundary species, the global community must be prepared to invest in some regions facing greater implementation challenges, including the nations of Central Africa, where efforts may necessitate establishing rapid conservation interventions postconflict that align with local socio-cultural opportunities and constraints. Sanctioned and coordinated approaches towards managing transboundary species are now essential to prevent further declines of many endangered species, and global policy efforts must do more to produce and enact legitimate mechanisms for collaborative action in conservation.

The human footprint represents observable human pressures: Reply to Kennedy et al

The Human Modification map differs in important ways from the map of the human footprint, such as its mapping of widespread direct modification of much of the world's polar regions. An extensive validation reveals large inaccuracies in the Human Modification map, and that the human footprint tends to better represent actual observable human pressures on the ground. This article is a commentary on Kennedy et al., 25, 811-826; See also the Commentary on this article by Kennedy et al., 26, 333-336.

The role of protected areas in mitigating human impact in the world's last wilderness areas

Human impact on the environment is evident across the planet, including its most biodiverse areas. Of particular interest is the impact on the world's last wilderness areas, in which the largest patches of land relatively free from human influence remain. Here, we use the human footprint index to measure the extent to which the world's last wilderness areas have been impacted by human activities-between the years 1993 and 2009-and whether protected areas have been effective in reducing human impact. We found that overall the increase in human footprint was higher in tropical than temperate regions. Moreover, although on average the increase was lower inside protected areas than outside, in half of the fourteen biomes examined the differences were insignificant. Although reasons varied, protected areas alone are unlikely to be ubiquitously successful in protecting wilderness areas. To achieve protection, it is important to address loss and improve environmental governance.

Baseline and stress-induced corticosterone levels across birds and reptiles do not reflect urbanization levels

Rates of human-induced environmental change continue increasing with human population size, potentially altering animal physiology and negatively affecting wildlife. Researchers often use glucocorticoid concentrations (hormones that can be associated with stressors) to gauge the impact of anthropogenic factors (e.g. urbanization, noise and light pollution). Yet, no general relationships between human-induced environmental change and glucocorticoids have emerged. Given the number of recent studies reporting baseline and stress-induced corticosterone (the primary glucocorticoid in birds and reptiles) concentrations worldwide, it is now possible to conduct large-scale comparative analyses to test for general associations between disturbance and baseline and stress-induced corticosterone across species. Additionally, we can control for factors that may influence context, such as life history stage, environmental conditions and urban adaptability of a species. Here, we take a phylogenetically informed approach and use data from HormoneBase to test if baseline and stress-induced corticosterone are valid indicators of exposure to human footprint index, human population density, anthropogenic noise and artificial light at night in birds and reptiles. Our results show a negative relationship between anthropogenic noise and baseline corticosterone for birds characterized as urban avoiders. While our results potentially indicate that urban avoiders are more sensitive to noise than other species, overall our study suggests that the relationship between human-induced environmental change and corticosterone varies across species and contexts; we found no general relationship between human impacts and baseline and stress-induced corticosterone in birds, nor baseline corticosterone in reptiles. Therefore, it should not be assumed that high or low levels of exposure to human-induced environmental change are associated with high or low corticosterone levels, respectively, or that closely related species, or even individuals, will respond similarly. Moving forward, measuring alternative physiological traits alongside reproductive success, health and survival may provide context to better understand the potential negative effects of human-induced environmental change.

Quantifying the Relative Importance of Climate Change and Human Activities on Selected Wetland Ecosystems in China

Climate change and human activities are important factors driving changes in wetland ecosystems. It is therefore crucial to quantitatively characterize the relative importance of these stressors in wetlands. Previous such analyses have generally not distinguished between wetland types, or have focused on individual wetland types. In this study, three representative wetland areas of the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Heilongjiang River Basin (HRB) were selected as the study area. An object-based classification was used with Landsat TM data to extract the spatial distribution of wetland in 1990, 2000 and 2010. We then quantified the relative importance of climate change and human activities on the wetlands by using the R package “relaimpo” package. The results indicated that: (1) the effects of human activities on wetland changes were greater (contribution rate of 63.57%) than climate change in the HRB. Specifically, there were differences in the relative importance of climate change and human activities for wetlands in different regions. Wetlands of the upper reaches were more affected by climate change, while wetlands in the middle and lower reaches were more affected by human activities; (2) climate change had a greater impact (contribution rate of 65.72%) on low intensity wetland loss, while human activities had a greater impact on moderate and severe intensity wetland loss, with respective contribution rates of 57.22% and 70.35%; (3) climate change had a larger effect on the shrub and forested wetland changes, with respective contribution rates of 58.33% and 52.58%. However, human activities had a larger effect on herbaceous wetland changes, with a contribution rate of 72.28%. Our study provides a useful framework for wetland assessment and management, and could be a useful tool for developing wetland utilization and protection approaches, particularly in sensitive environments in mid- and high-latitude areas.