Warmer springs disrupt the synchrony of oak and winter moth phenology

Changes in flowering phenology with altered rainfall and the potential community impacts in an annual grassland

PREMISE

Shifts in the timing of life history events, or phenology, have been recorded across many taxa and biomes in response to global change. These phenological changes are often studied in a single species context, but considering the community context is essential for anticipating the cascading effects on biotic interactions that are likely to occur. Focusing on an annual grassland plant community, we examined how experimental changes in precipitation affect flowering phenology in a community context and explore the implications of these shifts for competitive interactions and species coexistence.

METHODS

We experimentally manipulated rainfall with rainout shelters and recorded detailed flowering phenology data for seven annual species including two grasses and five forbs. We assessed how their first and peak flowering days were affected by changes in rainfall and explored how flowering overlap between competing species changed.

RESULTS

Changes in rainfall shifted flowering phenology of some species, but sensitivity differed among neighboring species. Four of the seven species studied started and/or peaked flowering earlier in response to reduced water availability. The idiosyncratic shifts in flowering phenology have the potential to alter existing temporal dynamics that may be maintaining coexistence, such as temporal separation of resource-use among neighbors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show how species-specific phenological consequences of global change can impact community dynamics and competition between neighboring plants and warrant future research.

Multiple drivers of spring migration timing for red deer over the past 16 years in northern Europe

The timing of migration is fundamental for species exploiting seasonally variable environments. For ungulates, earlier spring migration is expected with earlier vegetation green-up. However, other drivers, such as access to agricultural farmland and variation in local conditions, are also known to affect migration. We investigated the timing of spring migration for 96 male and 201 female red deer (Cervus elaphus) using a long-term dataset (2005-2020). Overall, the timing of migration was mainly characterized by large individual variability between and within years (95% range 6 April to 18 June). The spring migration timing was, as expected, later with colder winter and spring conditions (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter and April indices) and later peak vegetation green-up (NDVI), with a five-day delay in green-up causing a migration delay of 1.2 days. Timing was also influenced by local conditions in summer and winter home ranges. Red deer with greater access to farmland and a more variable topography (hence variable plant phenology) in winter delayed migration. Similarly, individuals with higher-elevation summer ranges (with delayed onset of plant growth) also delayed migration. Our analyses highlight that the timing of red deer migration is determined by multiple drivers affecting foraging conditions in the landscape, indicative of considerable phenotypic plasticity.

Does Climate Change Pose a Threat to the Guild Mimicry System of Australian Orchids?

Global warming is one of the biggest threats to global biodiversity causing not only changes in the patterns of precipitation and temperature but also disturbing ecological interactions. The aim of our study was to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution of food-deceptive orchid species whose pollination strategy relies on a strict association with pollinators and co-occurring rewarding Faboideae plants. We used the ecological niche modeling approach to evaluate future overlap of the suitable niches of studied orchid species with the predicted distribution of their ecological partners. Models were made based on two different global circulation models (FIO, CNRM). CNRM projections predict expansion of orchids' geographical range. In contrast, FIO prediction is less optimistic, forecasting species range contraction. The studied Faboideae species showed different responses to predicted global warming with no consistent patterns in how their suitable niches might change. Most climate change projections and scenarios of the future modifications of temperature and precipitation patterns do not predict significant loss of suitable niches of Trichocolletes bees (Colletidae) pollinating Diuris species. However, global warming has the potential to disrupt interactions between the studied orchids and their co-occurring pea plants by altering the overlap of their geographical ranges which can further disturb pollination success. CNRM projections predict an overall loss of Faboideae within the potential geographical range of Diuris brumalis. Conversely, FIO projections suggest a less extensive predicted divergence. Our simulations offer suggestions for conservation strategies of orchids and potentially for other species that have a similar pollination strategy. The areas indicated here as suitable in the future for the occurrence of all ecological partners can be important climate refugia to consider in local conservation plans. The approach used in our study can serve as a model for understanding the potential effects of climate change on the strength of the pollination system via food deception.

Contrasting Phenological Patterns and Reproductive Strategies in Closely Related Monoecious Fig Tree Species

Understanding the ecological and evolutionary aspects of mutualistic interactions is essential for predicting species responses to environmental changes. This study aimed to investigate the phenological patterns and reproductive strategies in two closely related fig tree species, Ficus citrifolia and Ficus eximia. We monitored 99 F. citrifolia and 21 F. eximia trees weekly from January 2006 to April 2011 in an area close to the southern edge of the tropical region in Brazil. Our results revealed contrasting phenological patterns between the two species, with F. citrifolia displaying an annual flowering pattern (1.4 episodes per tree per year) and F. eximia a supra-annual pattern (0.5 episodes per tree per year). We also found significant differences in reproductive strategies, with F. eximia producing more pistillate flowers and, consequently, more seeds and pollinating wasps per fig than F. citrifolia, likely as an adaptation to overcome limitations of low population density by maximizing the gene flow. As the shorter-lived organism, the fig wasp was found to influence critical processes associated with the success and stability of mutualism, such as fig development and ripening. Our findings emphasize the importance of understanding the intricate interactions between mutualistic partners and their adaptive responses to environmental conditions in shaping fig tree populations' reproductive strategies and genetic structure.

Alpine songbirds at higher elevations are only raised with a slight delay and therefore under harsher environmental conditions

The breeding phenology of birds is often timed to coincide with a peak in food availability. However, the shortening of the vegetation period with increasing elevation may force bird species at high elevations to breed earlier in relation to optimal environmental conditions due to time constraints. We investigated differences in fledging dates in five Alpine woodland songbird species along an elevational gradient from 1500 to 2200 m in Switzerland. We estimated fledging dates from a nationwide citizen science bird monitoring dataset and used the date when the proportion of observations of 'fledged young' reached 50% among all observations indicating breeding behaviour. This measure had the advantage that we could estimate average timing of the broods across a wide geographic range and over many years without the need to search for individual nests. We then compared differences in timing of the broods with climatic conditions and larch budburst across different elevational bands. The daily mean air temperature of 10-15°C was reached 34-38 days later at 2200 m compared to 1500 m, which is a similar delay as found in previous reports on snow melt-out date. The average delay in larch budburst was 19.2 days at 2200 m compared to 1500 m. In comparison, the average timing of the birds' broods was only 5.4 days later in coal tits and 0.5 days later in Alpine tits at 2200 compared to 1500 m (the two species for which we had the narrowest interval estimates). Also, the estimated delay at higher elevations in the broods of song thrushes, mistle thrushes and Eurasian chaffinches was relatively small. Rather than postponing breeding dates to better environmental conditions later in the season that would match the earlier conditions at low elevation, songbirds breeding at higher elevations may thus have evolved adaptations to cope with the harsher conditions.

Buffering and phenological mismatch: A change of perspective

The potential for climate change to disrupt phenology-mediated interactions in interaction networks has attracted considerable attention in recent decades. Frequently, studies emphasize the fragility of ephemeral seasonal interactions, and the risks posed by phenological asynchrony. Here, we argue that the fitness consequences of asynchrony in phenological interactions may often be more buffered than is typically acknowledged. We identify three main forms that buffering may take: (i) mechanisms that reduce asynchrony between consumer and resource; (ii) mechanisms that reduce the costs of being asynchronous; and (iii) mechanisms that dampen interannual variance in performance across higher organizational units. Using synchrony between the hatching of winter moth caterpillars and the leafing of their host-plants as a case study, we identify a wide variety of buffers that reduce the detrimental consequences of phenological asynchrony on caterpillar individuals, populations, and meta-populations. We follow this by drawing on examples across a breadth of taxa, and demonstrate that these buffering mechanisms may be quite general. We conclude by identifying key gaps in our knowledge of the fitness and demographic consequences of buffering, in the context of phenological mismatch. Buffering has the potential to substantially alter our understanding of the biotic impacts of future climate change-a greater recognition of the contribution of these mechanisms may reveal that many trophic interactions are surprisingly resilient, and also serve to shift research emphasis to those systems with fewer buffers and towards identifying the limits of those buffers.

Temperature has an overriding role compared to photoperiod in regulating the seasonal timing of winter moth egg hatching

To accurately predict species' phenology under climate change, we need to gain a detailed mechanistic understanding of how different environmental cues interact to produce the seasonal timing response. In the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), seasonal timing of egg hatching is strongly affected by ambient temperature and has been under strong climate change-induced selection over the past 25 years. However, it is unclear whether photoperiod received at the egg stage also influences timing of egg hatching. Here, we investigated the relative contribution of photoperiod and temperature in regulating winter moth egg development using two split-brood experiments. We experimentally shifted the photoperiod eggs received by 2-4 weeks compared to the actual calendar date and measured the timing of egg hatching, both at a constant temperature and in combination with two naturally changing temperature treatments - mimicking a cold and a warm year. We found an eight-fold larger effect of temperature compared to photoperiod on egg development time. Moreover, the very small photoperiod effects we found were outweighed by both between- and within-clutch variation in egg development time. Thus, we conclude that photoperiod received at the egg stage does likely not play a substantial role in regulating the seasonal timing of egg hatching in the winter moth. These insights into the regulatory mechanism of seasonal timing could have important implications for predicting insect climate change adaptation, as we might expect different targets of selection depending on the relative contribution of different environmental cues.

Sensitivity of Vanessa cardui to Temperature Variations: A Cost-Effective Experiment for Environmental Education

Temperature increases mediated through climate change threaten the survival of species. It is of foremost importance to engage citizens and future generations in understanding the mechanisms through which temperatures impose their effects. For educators, this is not straightforward, as tools for examining the impact of temperature over the lifetime of an animal are prohibitively expensive. At the same time, environmental educators need guidance on the appropriate study systems to use with a balance between the species having an obvious response and ensuring the outcomes are ethical and sustainable. In our study, we created and tested a cost-effective experiment meant to be used for environmental education purposes. More specifically, we tested the sensitivity of the painted lady butterfly Vanessa cardui to temperature variations using a homemade incubator. We describe the design of this experiment and report findings on survival rate, morphological variations, development time of various stages and wingspan of adults across a range of biologically relevant temperatures. The information provided gives educators options for testing a variety of hypotheses with regards to the impacts of temperature using an affordable and flexible set-up. Furthermore, the findings can be used by students to develop an understanding of the ramifications of the butterflies' responses in an ecological context.

Decoupling of bird migration from the changing phenology of spring green-up

The green-up of vegetation in spring brings a pulse of food resources that many animals track during migration. However, green-up phenology is changing with climate change, posing an immense challenge for species that time their migrations to coincide with these resource pulses. We evaluated changes in green-up phenology from 2002 to 2021 in relation to the migrations of 150 Western-Hemisphere bird species using eBird citizen science data. We found that green-up phenology has changed within bird migration routes, and yet the migrations of most species align more closely with long-term averages of green-up than with current conditions. Changing green-up strongly influenced phenological mismatches, especially for longer-distance migrants. These results reveal that bird migration may have limited flexibility to adjust to changing vegetation phenology and emphasize the mounting challenge migratory animals face in following en route resources in a changing climate.

Duration and variability of spring green-up mediate population consequences of climate change

Single phenological measures, like the average rate of phenological advancement, may be insufficient to explain how climate change is driving trends in animal populations. Here, we develop a multifactorial concept of spring phenology-including the onset of spring, spring duration, interannual variability, and their temporal changes-as a driver for population dynamics of migratory terrestrial species in seasonal environments. Using this conceptual model, we found that effects of advancing spring phenology on animal populations may be buffered or amplified depending on the duration and interannual variability of spring green-up, and those effects are modified by evolutionary and plastic adaptations of species. Furthermore, we compared our modelling results with empirical data on normalized difference vegetation index-based spring green-up phenology and population trends of 106 European landbird finding similar associations. We conclude how phenological changes are expected to affect migratory bird populations across Europe and identify regions that are particularly prone to suffer population declines.

Asynchrony in terrestrial insect abundance corresponds with species traits

Asynchrony in population abundance can buffer the effects of environmental change leading to greater community and ecosystem stability. Both environmental (abiotic) drivers and species functional (biotic) traits can influence population dynamics leading to asynchrony. However, empirical evidence linking dissimilarity in species traits to abundance asynchrony is limited, especially for understudied taxa such as insects. To fill this knowledge gap, we explored the relationship between pairwise species trait dissimilarity and asynchrony in interannual abundance change between pairs of species for 422 moth, butterfly, and bumblebee species in Great Britain. We also explored patterns differentiating traits that we assumed to capture 'sensitivity to environmental variables' (such as body mass), and traits that may reflect 'diversity in exposure' to environmental conditions and lead to niche partitioning (for example, habitat uses, and intra-annual emergence periods). As expected, species trait dissimilarity calculated overall and for many individual traits representing response and exposure was positively correlated with asynchrony in all three insect groups. We found that 'exposure' traits, especially those relating to the phenology of species, had the strongest relationship with abundance asynchrony from all tested traits. Positive relationships were not simply due to shared evolutionary history leading to similar life-history strategies: detected effects remained significant for most traits after accounting for phylogenetic relationships within models. Our results provide empirical support that dissimilarity in traits linked to species exposure and sensitivity to the environment could be important for temporal dissimilarity in insect abundance. Hence, we suggest that general trait diversity, but especially diversity in 'exposure' traits, could play a significant role in the resilience of insect communities to short-term environmental perturbations through driving asynchrony between species abundances.

Earlier and more uniform spring green-up linked to lower insect richness and biomass in temperate forests

Urbanization and agricultural intensification are considered the main causes of recent insect decline in temperate Europe, while direct climate warming effects are still ambiguous. Nonetheless, higher temperatures advance spring leaf emergence, which in turn may directly or indirectly affect insects. We therefore investigated how Sentinel-2-derived start of season (SOS) and its spatial variability (SV-SOS) are affected by spring temperature and whether these green-up variables can explain insect biomass and richness across a climate and land-use gradient in southern Germany. We found that the effects of both spring green-up variables on insect biomass and richness differed between land-use types, but were strongest in forests. Here, insect richness and biomass were higher with later green-up (SOS) and higher SV-SOS. In turn, higher spring temperatures advanced SOS, while SV-SOS was lower at warmer sites. We conclude that with a warming climate, insect biomass and richness in forests may be affected negatively due to earlier and more uniform green-up. Promising adaptation strategies should therefore focus on spatial variability in green-up in forests, thus plant species and structural diversity.

Phenological mismatch affects individual fitness and population growth in the winter moth

Climate change can severely impact species that depend on temporary resources by inducing phenological mismatches between consumer and resource seasonal timing. In the winter moth, warmer winters caused eggs to hatch before their food source, young oak leaves, became available. This phenological mismatch changed the selection on the temperature sensitivity of egg development rate. However, we know little about the fine-scale fitness consequences of phenological mismatch at the individual level and how this mismatch affects population dynamics in the winter moth. To determine the fitness consequences of mistimed egg hatching relative to timing of oak budburst, we quantified survival and pupation weight in a feeding experiment. We found that mismatch greatly increased mortality rates of freshly hatched caterpillars, as well as affecting caterpillar growth and development time. We then investigated whether these individual fitness consequences have population-level impacts by estimating the effect of phenological mismatch on population dynamics, using our long-term data (1994-2021) on relative winter moth population densities at four locations in The Netherlands. We found a significant effect of mismatch on population density with higher population growth rates in years with a smaller phenological mismatch. Our results indicate that climate change-induced phenological mismatch can incur severe individual fitness consequences that can impact population density in the wild.

Divergence in cell cycle progression is associated with shifted phenology in a multivoltine moth: the European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis

Evolutionary change in diapause timing can be an adaptive response to changing seasonality, and even result in ecological speciation. However, the molecular and cellular mechanisms regulating shifts in diapause timing remain poorly understood. One of the hallmarks of diapause is a massive slowdown in the cell cycle of target organs such as the brain and primordial imaginal structures, and resumption of cell cycle proliferation is an indication of diapause termination and resumption of development. Characterizing cell cycle parameters between lineages differing in diapause life history timing may help identify molecular mechanisms associated with alterations of diapause timing. We tested the extent to which progression of the cell cycle differs across diapause between two genetically distinct European corn borer strains that differ in their seasonal diapause timing. We show the cell cycle slows down during larval diapause with a significant decrease in the proportion of cells in S phase. Brain-subesophageal complex cells slow primarily in G0/G1 phase whereas most wing disc cells are in G2 phase. Diapausing larvae of the earlier emerging, bivoltine E-strain (BE) suppressed cell cycle progression less than the later emerging, univoltine Z-strain (UZ) individuals, with a greater proportion of cells in S phase across both tissues during diapause. Additionally, resumption of cell cycle proliferation occurred earlier in the BE strain than in the UZ strain after exposure to diapause-terminating conditions. We propose that regulation of cell cycle progression rates ultimately drives differences in larval diapause termination, and adult emergence timing, between early- and late-emerging European corn borer strains.

Climate, landscape, and life history jointly predict multidecadal community mosquito phenology

Phenology of adult host-seeking female mosquitoes is a critical component for understanding potential for vector-borne pathogen maintenance and amplification in the natural environment. Despite this importance, long-term multi-species investigations of mosquito phenologies across environments and differing species' life history traits are rare. Here we leverage long-term mosquito control district monitoring data to characterize annual phenologies of 7 host-seeking female mosquito species over a 20-year time period in suburban Illinois, USA. We also assembled data on landscape context, categorized into low and medium development, climate variables including precipitation, temperature and humidity, and key life history traits, i.e. overwintering stage and Spring-Summer versus Summer-mid-Fallseason fliers. We then fit linear mixed models separately for adult onset, peak abundances, and flight termination with landscape, climate and trait variables as predictors with species as a random effect. Model results supported some expectations, including warmer spring temperatures leading to earlier onset, warmer temperatures and lower humidity leading to earlier peak abundances, and warmer and wetter fall conditions leading to later termination. However, we also found sometimes complex interactions and responses contrary to our predictions. For example, temperature had generally weak support on its own, impacting onset and peak abundance timing; rather temperature has interacting effects with humidity or precipitation. We also found higher spring precipitation, especially in low development contexts, generally delayed adult onset, counter to expectations. These results emphasize the need to consider how traits, landscape and climatic factors all interact to determine mosquito phenology, when planning management strategies for vector control and public health protection.

Molecular insights into the dynamics of species invasion by hybridisation in Tasmanian eucalypts

In plants where seed dispersal is limited compared with pollen dispersal, hybridisation may enhance gene exchange and species dispersal. We provide genetic evidence of hybridisation contributing to the expansion of the rare Eucalyptus risdonii into the range of the widespread Eucalyptus amygdalina. These closely related tree species are morphologically distinct, and observations suggest that natural hybrids occur along their distribution boundaries and as isolated trees or in small patches within the range of E. amygdalina. Hybrid phenotypes occur outside the range of normal dispersal for E. risdonii seed, yet in some hybrid patches small individuals resembling E. risdonii occur and are hypothesised to be a result of backcrossing. Using 3362 genome-wide SNPs assessed from 97 individuals of E. risdonii and E. amygdalina and 171 hybrid trees, we show that (i) isolated hybrids match the genotypes expected of F₁ /F₂ hybrids, (ii) there is a continuum in the genetic composition among the isolated hybrid patches from patches dominated by F₁ /F₂ -like genotypes to those dominated by E. risdonii-backcross genotypes, and (iii) the E. risdonii-like phenotypes in the isolated hybrid patches are most-closely related to proximal larger hybrids. These results suggest that the E. risdonii phenotype has been resurrected in isolated hybrid patches established from pollen dispersal, providing the first steps in its invasion of suitable habitat by long-distance pollen dispersal and complete introgressive displacement of E. amygdalina. Such expansion accords with the population demographics, common garden performance data, and climate modelling which favours E. risdonii and highlights a role of interspecific hybridisation in climate change adaptation and species expansion.

Long-term insect censuses capture progressive loss of ecosystem functioning in East Asia

Insects provide critical ecosystem services such as biological pest control, in which natural enemies (NE) regulate the populations of crop-feeding herbivores (H). While H-NE dynamics are routinely studied at small spatiotemporal scales, multiyear assessments over entire agrolandscapes are rare. Here, we draw on 18-year radar and searchlight trapping datasets (2003-2020) from eastern Asia to (i) assess temporal population trends of 98 airborne insect species and (ii) characterize the associated H-NE interplay. Although NE consistently constrain interseasonal H population growth, their summer abundance declined by 19.3% over time and prominent agricultural pests abandoned their equilibrium state. Within food webs composed of 124 bitrophic couplets, NE abundance annually fell by 0.7% and network connectance dropped markedly. Our research unveils how a progressive decline in insect numbers debilitates H trophic regulation and ecosystem stability at a macroscale, carrying implications for food security and (agro)ecological resilience during times of global environmental change.

Diapause in Univoltine and Semivoltine Life Cycles

Although it is generally more adaptive for insects to produce additional generations than to have longer life cycles, some insects produce one or fewer generations per year (univoltine or semivoltine life cycles, respectively). Some insects with the potential to produce multiple generations per year produce a univoltine life cycle in response to environmental conditions. Obligatory univoltine insects have a single long diapause or multiple diapauses in different seasons. Semivoltine insects have multiple diapauses in different years, a prolonged diapause for more than a year, or diapause controlled by a circannual rhythm. Diapause in these insects greatly varies among species both in the physiological mechanism and in the evolutionary background, and there is no general rule defining it. In this review, we survey the physiological control of univoltine and semivoltine insects' diapause and discuss the adaptive significance of the long life cycles. Although constraints such as slow development are sometimes responsible for these life cycles, the benefits of these life cycles can be explained by bet-hedging in many cases. We also discuss the effect of climate warming on these life cycles as a future area of research.

Current and lagged climate affects phenology across diverse taxonomic groups

The timing of life events (phenology) can be influenced by climate. Studies from around the world tell us that climate cues and species' responses can vary greatly. If variation in climate effects on phenology is strong within a single ecosystem, climate change could lead to ecological disruption, but detailed data from diverse taxa within a single ecosystem are rare. We collated first sighting and median activity within a high-elevation environment for plants, insects, birds, mammals and an amphibian across 45 years (1975-2020). We related 10 812 phenological events to climate data to determine the relative importance of climate effects on species' phenologies. We demonstrate significant variation in climate-phenology linkage across taxa in a single ecosystem. Both current and prior climate predicted changes in phenology. Taxa responded to some cues similarly, such as snowmelt date and spring temperatures; other cues affected phenology differently. For example, prior summer precipitation had no effect on most plants, delayed first activity of some insects, but advanced activity of the amphibian, some mammals, and birds. Comparing phenological responses of taxa at a single location, we find that important cues often differ among taxa, suggesting that changes to climate may disrupt synchrony of timing among taxa.

Seasonal timing on a cyclical Earth: Towards a theoretical framework for the evolution of phenology

Phenology refers to the seasonal timing patterns commonly exhibited by life on Earth, from blooming flowers to breeding birds to human agriculture. Climate change is altering abiotic seasonality (e.g., longer summers) and in turn, phenological patterns contained within. However, how phenology should evolve is still an unsolved problem. This problem lies at the crux of predicting future phenological changes that will likely have substantial ecosystem consequences, and more fundamentally, of understanding an undeniably global phenomenon. Most studies have associated proximate environmental variables with phenological responses in case-specific ways, making it difficult to contextualize observations within a general evolutionary framework. We outline the complex but universal ways in which seasonal timing maps onto evolutionary fitness. We borrow lessons from life history theory and evolutionary demography that have benefited from a first principles-based theoretical scaffold. Lastly, we identify key questions for theorists and empiricists to help advance our general understanding of phenology.

Transcriptional regulation underlying the temperature response of embryonic development rate in the winter moth

Climate change will strongly affect the developmental timing of insects, as their development rate depends largely on ambient temperature. However, we know little about the genetic mechanisms underlying the temperature sensitivity of embryonic development in insects. We investigated embryonic development rate in the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), a species with egg dormancy which has been under selection due to climate change. We used RNA sequencing to investigate which genes are involved in the regulation of winter moth embryonic development rate in response to temperature. Over the course of development, we sampled eggs before and after an experimental change in ambient temperature, including two early development weeks when the temperature sensitivity of eggs is low and two late development weeks when temperature sensitivity is high. We found temperature-responsive genes that responded in a similar way across development, as well as genes with a temperature response specific to a particular development week. Moreover, we identified genes whose temperature effect size changed around the switch in temperature sensitivity of development rate. Interesting candidate genes for regulating the temperature sensitivity of egg development rate included genes involved in histone modification, hormonal signalling, nervous system development and circadian clock genes. The diverse sets of temperature-responsive genes we found here indicate that there are many potential targets of selection to change the temperature sensitivity of embryonic development rate. Identifying for which of these genes there is genetic variation in wild insect populations will give insight into their adaptive potential in the face of climate change.

Integrating experiments to predict interactive cue effects on spring phenology with warming

Climate change has advanced plant phenology globally 4-6 d °C^-1 on average. Such shifts are some of the most reported and predictable biological impacts of rising temperatures. Yet as climate change has marched on, phenological shifts have appeared muted over recent decades - failing to match simple predictions of an advancing spring with continued warming. The main hypothesis for these changing trends is that interactions between spring phenological cues - long-documented in laboratory environments - are playing a greater role in natural environments due to climate change. Here, we argue that accurately linking shifts observed in long-term data to underlying phenological cues is slowed by biases in observational studies and limited integration of insights from laboratory studies. We synthesize seven decades of laboratory experiments to quantify how phenological cue-space has been studied and how treatments compare with shifts caused by climate change. Most studies focus on one cue, limiting our ability to make accurate predictions, but some well-studied forest species offer opportunities to advance forecasting. We outline how greater integration of controlled-environment studies with long-term data could drive a new generation of laboratory experiments, built on physiological insights, that would transform our fundamental understanding of phenology and improve predictions.

Temperature and nutrient conditions modify the effects of phenological shifts in predator-prey communities

While there is mounting evidence indicating that the relative timing of predator and prey phenologies shapes the outcome of trophic interactions, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how important the environmental context (e.g. abiotic conditions) is for shaping this relationship. Environmental conditions not only frequently drive shifts in phenologies, but they can also affect the very same processes that mediate the effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Thus, identifying how environmental conditions shape the effects of phenological shifts is key to predict community dynamics across a heterogenous landscape and how they will change with ongoing climate change in the future. Here I tested how environmental conditions shape effects of phenological shifts by experimentally manipulating temperature, nutrient availability, and relative phenologies in two predator-prey freshwater systems (mole salamander- bronze frog vs dragonfly larvae-leopard frog). This allowed me to (1) isolate the effect of phenological shifts and different environmental conditions, (2) determine how they interact, and (3) how consistent these patterns are across different species and environments. I found that delaying prey arrival dramatically increased predation rates, but these effects were contingent on environmental conditions and predator system. While both nutrient addition and warming significantly enhanced the effect of arrival time, their effect was qualitatively different across systems: Nutrient addition enhanced the positive effect of early arrival in the dragonfly-leopard frog system, while warming enhanced the negative effect of arriving late in the salamander-bronze frog system. Predator responses varied qualitatively across predator-prey systems. Only in the system with strong gape-limitation were predators (salamanders) significantly affected by prey arrival time and this effect varied with environmental context. Correlations between predator and prey demographic rates suggest that this was driven by shifts in initial predator-prey size ratios and a positive feedback between size-specific predation rates and predator growth rates. These results highlight the importance of accounting for temporal and spatial correlation of local environmental conditions and gape-limitation in predator-prey systems when predicting the effects of phenological shifts and climate change on predator-prey systems.

Deep Learning in Plant Phenological Research: A Systematic Literature Review

Climate change represents one of the most critical threats to biodiversity with far-reaching consequences for species interactions, the functioning of ecosystems, or the assembly of biotic communities. Plant phenology research has gained increasing attention as the timing of periodic events in plants is strongly affected by seasonal and interannual climate variation. Recent technological development allowed us to gather invaluable data at a variety of spatial and ecological scales. The feasibility of phenological monitoring today and in the future depends heavily on developing tools capable of efficiently analyzing these enormous amounts of data. Deep Neural Networks learn representations from data with impressive accuracy and lead to significant breakthroughs in, e.g., image processing. This article is the first systematic literature review aiming to thoroughly analyze all primary studies on deep learning approaches in plant phenology research. In a multi-stage process, we selected 24 peer-reviewed studies published in the last five years (2016-2021). After carefully analyzing these studies, we describe the applied methods categorized according to the studied phenological stages, vegetation type, spatial scale, data acquisition- and deep learning methods. Furthermore, we identify and discuss research trends and highlight promising future directions. We present a systematic overview of previously applied methods on different tasks that can guide this emerging complex research field.

The long and the short of it: Mechanisms of synchronous and compensatory dynamics across temporal scales

Synchronous dynamics (fluctuations that occur in unison) are universal phenomena with widespread implications for ecological stability. Synchronous dynamics can amplify the destabilizing effect of environmental variability on ecosystem functions such as productivity, whereas the inverse, compensatory dynamics, can stabilize function. Here we combine simulation and empirical analyses to elucidate mechanisms that underlie patterns of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics. In both simulated and empirical communities, we show that synchronous and compensatory dynamics are not mutually exclusive but instead can vary by timescale. Our simulations identify multiple mechanisms that can generate timescale‐specific patterns, including different environmental drivers, diverse life histories, dispersal, and non‐stationary dynamics. We find that traditional metrics for quantifying synchronous dynamics are often biased toward long‐term drivers and may miss the importance of short‐term drivers. Our findings indicate key mechanisms to consider when assessing synchronous versus compensatory dynamics and our approach provides a pathway for disentangling these dynamics in natural systems.

Individual variation in reaction norms but no directional selection in reproductive plasticity of a wild passerine population

In the plant-insect-insectivorous bird food chain, directional changes in climate can result in mismatched phenology, potentially affecting selection pressures. Phenotypic plasticity in the timing of breeding, characterized by reaction norm slopes, can help maximize fitness when faced with earlier prey emergence. In temperate passerines, the timing of tree budburst influences food availability for chicks through caterpillar phenology and the resulting food abundance patterns. Thus, the timing of tree budburst might serve as a more direct proxy for the cue to time egg-laying. The evolutionary potential of breeding plasticity relies on heritable variation, which is based upon individual variation, yet studies on individual variation in plasticity are few. Here, we tested for the laying date-budburst date and the clutch size-laying date reaction norms, and examined 1) the among-individual variance in reaction norm intercepts and slopes; and 2) the selection differentials and gradients on these intercepts and slopes. Using long-term data of oak (genus Quercus) budburst and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) reproduction, we applied within-subject centering to detect reaction norms, followed by bivariate random regression to quantify among-individual variance in reaction norm properties and their covariance with fitness. Individuals significantly differed in intercepts and slopes of both laying date-budburst date and clutch size-laying date reaction norms, and directional selection was present for an earlier laying date and a larger clutch size (intercepts), but not on plasticity (slopes). We found that individuals have their own regimes for adjusting egg-laying and clutch size. This study provides further support of individual variation of phenotypic plasticity in birds.

Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits (Parus major)

Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit (Parus major), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches.

Pollination and fitness of a hawkmoth-pollinated plant are related to light pollution and tree cover

Urbanization results in biodiversity-damaging land use change since it is normally associated with reduced vegetation cover and installation of artificial lights. Light pollution raises illumination levels of night skies and affects the behaviour of hawkmoths and their interactions with plants. In addition to feeding on flowers, adult hawkmoths require adequate daytime resting sites and specific host plants on which their caterpillars can feed. In this study, we assessed the relationships of light pollution and tree cover with pollen load and plant fitness of Erythrostemon gilliesii, a legume native to Argentina which exclusively depends on pollination by long-proboscid hawkmoths. We determined stigmatic pollen load, and seed and fruit set at six sites in Central Argentina. Plants growing in sites with highest light pollution and lowest tree cover received the least pollen loads on their stigmas. Where tree cover was lowest, germinated pollen load and plant fitness were lowest, even where light pollution was low. We found that light pollution together with tree cover may affect pollination, thus indirectly influencing the fitness of nocturnally pollinated plants. However, the indirect influence of light pollution on plant fitness may be dependent on the conservation status of neighbouring natural habitats, since in low light-polluted sites, tree cover seems to be the major factor influencing plant fitness.

Genomic signatures of natural selection at phenology-related genes in a widely distributed tree species Fagus sylvatica L

BACKGROUND

Diversity among phenology-related genes is predicted to be a contributing factor in local adaptations seen in widely distributed plant species that grow in climatically variable geographic areas, such as forest trees. European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is widespread, and is one of the most important broadleaved tree species in Europe; however, its potential for adaptation to climate change is a matter of uncertainty, and little is known about the molecular basis of climate change-relevant traits like bud burst.

RESULTS

We explored single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) at candidate genes related to bud burst in beech individuals sampled across 47 populations from Europe. SNP diversity was monitored for 380 candidate genes using a sequence capture approach, providing 2909 unlinked SNP loci. We used two complementary analytical methods to find loci significantly associated with geographic variables, climatic variables (expressed as principal components), or phenotypic variables (spring and autumn phenology, height, survival). Redundancy analysis (RDA) was used to detect candidate markers across two spatial scales (entire study area and within subregions). We revealed 201 candidate SNPs at the broadest scale, 53.2% of which were associated with phenotypic variables. Additive polygenic scores, which provide a measure of the cumulative signal across significant candidate SNPs, were correlated with a climate variable (first principal component, PC1) related to temperature and precipitation availability, and spring phenology. However, different genotype-environment associations were identified within Southeastern Europe as compared to the entire geographic range of European beech.

CONCLUSIONS

Environmental conditions play important roles as drivers of genetic diversity of phenology-related genes that could influence local adaptation in European beech. Selection in beech favors genotypes with earlier bud burst under warmer and wetter habitats within its range; however, selection pressures may differ across spatial scales.

Four times out of Europe: Serial invasions of the winter moth, Operophtera brumata, to North America

Reconstructing the geographic origins of non-native species is important for studying the factors that influence invasion success, however; these analyses can be constrained by the amount of diversity present in the native and invaded regions, and by changes in the genetic background of the invading population following bottlenecks and/or hybridization events. Here we explore the geographical origins of the invasive winter moth (Operopthera brumata L.) that has caused widespread defoliation to forests, orchards, and crops in Nova Scotia, British Columbia, Oregon, and the northeastern United States. It is not known whether these represent independent introductions to North America, or a "stepping stone" spread among regions. Using a combination of Bayesian assignment and approximate Bayesian computation methods, we analysed a population genetic data set of 24 microsatellite loci. We estimate that winter moth was introduced to North America on at least four occasions, with the Nova Scotian and British Columbian populations probably being introduced from France and Sweden, respectively; the Oregonian population probably being introduced from either the British Isles or northern Fennoscandia; and the population in the northeastern United States probably being introduced from somewhere in Central Europe. We discuss the impact of genetic bottlenecks on analyses meant to determine region of origin.

Phenological sensitivity to temperature mediates herbivory

Species interactions drive ecosystem processes and are a major focus of global change research. Among the most consequential interactions expected to shift with climate change are those between insect herbivores and plants, both of which are highly sensitive to temperature. Insect herbivores and their host plants display varying levels of synchrony that could be disrupted or enhanced by climate change, yet empirical data on changes in synchrony are lacking. Using evidence of herbivory on herbarium specimens collected from the northeastern United States and France from 1900 to 2015, we provide evidence that plant species with temperature-sensitive phenologies experience higher levels of insect damage in warmer years, while less temperature-sensitive, co-occurring species do not. While herbivory might be mediated by interactions between warming and phenology through multiple pathways, we suggest that warming might lengthen growing seasons for phenologically sensitive plant species, exposing their leaves to herbivores for longer periods of time in warm years. We propose that elevated herbivory in warm years may represent a previously underappreciated cost to phenological tracking of climate change over longer timescales.

Effects of temperature and photoperiod on the seasonal timing of Western honey bee colonies and an early spring flowering plant

Temperature and photoperiod are important Zeitgebers for plants and pollinators to synchronize growth and reproduction with suitable environmental conditions and their mutualistic interaction partners. Global warming can disturb this temporal synchronization since interacting species may respond differently to new combinations of photoperiod and temperature under future climates, but experimental studies on the potential phenological responses of plants and pollinators are lacking. We simulated current and future combinations of temperature and photoperiod to assess effects on the overwintering and spring phenology of an early flowering plant species (Crocus sieberi) and the Western honey bee (Apis mellifera). We could show that increased mean temperatures in winter and early spring advanced the flowering phenology of C. sieberi and intensified brood rearing activity of A. mellifera but did not advance their brood rearing activity. Flowering phenology of C. sieberi also relied on photoperiod, while brood rearing activity of A. mellifera did not. The results confirm that increases in temperature can induce changes in phenological responses and suggest that photoperiod can also play a critical role in these responses, with currently unknown consequences for real-world ecosystems in a warming climate.

Assessment of Chilling Requirement and Threshold Temperature of a Low Chill Pear (Pyrus communis L.) Germplasm in the Mediterranean Area

In temperate climates, bud break and shoot and flower emission of deciduous fruit tree species are regulated by precise chilling and heating requirements. To investigate this aspect, sixty-one accessions of European pear (Pyrus communis L.) collected in Sicily were phenotyped for three consecutive years for harvest date, bud sprouting and blooming to determine both the chilling requirements and the threshold temperature using the Chill Days model. The whole germplasm collection was grown in two different experimental fields located at 10 and 850 m above sea level representing two Mediterranean-type climates in which pear is commonly cultivated. Results revealed a mean threshold temperature of 6.70 and 8.10 °C for the two experimental fields, respectively, with a mean chilling requirement ranging from −103 and −120 days. Through this approach, novel insights were gained on the differences in chilling requirement for early flowering cultivars to overcome dormancy. Furthermore, to better dissect differences in chilling requirement between accessions, the sprouting bud rate of six cultivars was assessed on excised twigs stored at 4 ± 0.1 °C from 300 to 900 h followed by a period at 25 ± 0.1 °C varying from seven to twenty-eight days. Results of both experiments highlighted that Sicilian pear germplasm is characterized by a low chilling requirement compared to other pear germplasm, making Sicilian local accessions valuable candidates to be used for selecting novel cultivars, coupling their low chilling requirements with other traits of agronomical interest.

Climate change alters plant-herbivore interactions

Plant-herbivore interactions have evolved in response to coevolutionary dynamics, along with selection driven by abiotic conditions. We examine how abiotic factors influence trait expression in both plants and herbivores to evaluate how climate change will alter this long-standing interaction. The paleontological record documents increased herbivory during periods of global warming in the deep past. In phylogenetically corrected meta-analyses, we find that elevated temperatures, CO₂ concentrations, drought stress and nutrient conditions directly and indirectly induce greater food consumption by herbivores. Additionally, elevated CO₂ delays herbivore development, but increased temperatures accelerate development. For annual plants, higher temperatures, CO₂ and drought stress increase foliar herbivory. Our meta-analysis also suggests that greater temperatures and drought may heighten florivory in perennials. Human actions are causing concurrent shifts in CO₂ , temperature, precipitation regimes and nitrogen deposition, yet few studies evaluate interactions among these changing conditions. We call for additional multifactorial studies that simultaneously manipulate multiple climatic factors, which will enable us to generate more robust predictions of how climate change could disrupt plant-herbivore interactions. Finally, we consider how shifts in insect and plant phenology and distribution patterns could lead to ecological mismatches, and how these changes may drive future adaptation and coevolution between interacting species.

Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts

Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match-mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.

Plant-soil interactions limit lifetime fitness outside a native plant's geographic range margin

Plant species' distributions are often thought to overwhelmingly reflect their climatic niches. However, climate represents only a fraction of the n-dimensional environment to which plant populations adapt, and studies are increasingly uncovering strong effects of nonclimatic factors on species' distributions. We used a manipulative, factorial field experiment to quantify the effects of soil environment and precipitation (the putatively overriding climatic factor) on plant lifetime fitness outside the geographic range boundary of a native California annual plant. We grew plants outside the range edge in large mesocosms filled with soil from either within or outside the range, and plants were subjected to either a low (ambient) or high (supplemental) spring precipitation treatment. Soil environment had large effects on plant lifetime fitness that were similar in magnitude to the effects of precipitation. Moreover, mean fitness of plants grown with within-range soil in the low precipitation treatment approximated that of plants grown with beyond-range soil in the high precipitation treatment. The positive effects of within-range soil persisted in the second, wetter year of the experiment, though the magnitude of the soil effect was smaller than in the first, drier year. These results are the first we know of to quantify the effects of edaphic variation on plant lifetime fitness outside a geographic range limit and highlight the need to include factors other than climate in models of species' distributions.

Degrees of change: between and within population variation in thermal reaction norms of phenology in a viviparous lizard

As the earth warms, populations will be faced with novel environments to which they may not be adapted. In the short term, populations can be buffered against the negative effects, or maximize the beneficial effects, of such environmental change via phenotypic plasticity and, in the longer term, via adaptive evolution. However, the extent and direction of these population-level responses will be dependent on the degree to which responses vary among the individuals within them (i.e., within population variation in plasticity), which is, itself, likely to vary among populations. Despite this, we have estimates of among-individual variation in plastic responses across multiple populations for only a few systems. This lack of data limits our ability to predict the consequences of environmental change for population and species persistence accurately. Here, we utilized a 16-yr data set from climatically distinct populations of the viviparous skink Niveoscincus ocellatus tracking over 1,200 litters from more than 600 females from each population to examine inter- and intrapopulation variability in the response of parturition date to environmental temperature. We found that these populations share a common population-mean reaction norm but differ in the degree to which reaction norms vary among individuals. These results suggest that even where populations share a common mean-level response, we cannot assume that they will be affected similarly by altered environmental conditions. If we are to assess how changing climates will impact species and populations accurately, we require estimates of how plastic responses vary both among and within populations.

Temperature has a causal and plastic effect on timing of breeding in a small songbird

Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism by which an individual can adapt its seasonal timing to predictable, short-term environmental changes by using predictive cues. Identification of these cues is crucial to forecast the response of species to long-term environmental change and to study their potential to adapt. Individual great tits (Parus major) start reproduction early under warmer conditions in the wild, but whether this effect is causal is not well known. We housed 36 pairs of great tits in climate-controlled aviaries and 40 pairs in outdoor aviaries, where they bred under artificial contrasting temperature treatments or in semi-natural conditions, respectively, for two consecutive years, using birds from lines selected for early and late egg laying. We thus obtained laying dates in two different thermal environments for each female. Females bred earlier under warmer conditions in climate-controlled aviaries, but not in outdoor aviaries. The latter was inconsistent with laying dates from our wild population. Further, early selection line females initiated egg laying consistently ∼9 days earlier than late selection line females in outdoor aviaries, but we found no difference in the degree of plasticity (i.e. the sensitivity to temperature) in laying date between selection lines. Because we found that temperature causally affects laying date, climate change will lead to earlier laying. This advancement is, however, unlikely to be sufficient, thereby leading to selection for earlier laying. Our results suggest that natural selection may lead to a change in mean phenotype, but not to a change in the sensitivity of laying dates to temperature.

Two reproductive traits show contrasting genetic architectures in Plantago lanceolata

In many species, temperature-sensitive phenotypic plasticity (i.e., an individual's phenotypic response to temperature) displays a positive correlation with latitude, a pattern presumed to reflect local adaptation. This geographical pattern raises two general questions: (a) Do a few large-effect genes contribute to latitudinal variation in a trait? (b) Is the thermal plasticity of different traits regulated pleiotropically? To address the questions, we crossed individuals of Plantago lanceolata derived from northern and southern European populations. Individuals naturally exhibited high and low thermal plasticity in floral reflectance and flowering time. We grew parents and offspring in controlled cool- and warm-temperature environments, mimicking what plants would encounter in nature. We obtained genetic markers via genotype-by-sequencing, produced the first recombination map for this ecologically important nonmodel species, and performed quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping of thermal plasticity and single-environment values for both traits. We identified a large-effect QTL that largely explained the reflectance plasticity differences between northern and southern populations. We identified multiple smaller-effect QTLs affecting aspects of flowering time, one of which affected flowering time plasticity. The results indicate that the genetic architecture of thermal plasticity in flowering is more complex than for reflectance. One flowering time QTL showed strong cytonuclear interactions under cool temperatures. Reflectance and flowering plasticity QTLs did not colocalize, suggesting little pleiotropic genetic control and freedom for independent trait evolution. Such genetic information about the architecture of plasticity is environmentally important because it informs us about the potential for plasticity to offset negative effects of climate change.

Identification of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) refugia in North Africa and the Italian Peninsula during the last glacial maximum

Numerous studies have shown that the genetic diversity of species inhabiting temperate regions has been shaped by changes in their distributions during the Quaternary climatic oscillations. For some species, the genetic distinctness of isolated populations is maintained during secondary contact, while for others, admixture is frequently observed. For the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), an important defoliator of oak forests across Europe and northern Africa, we previously determined that contemporary populations correspond to genetic diversity obtained during the last glacial maximum (LGM) through the use of refugia in the Iberian and Aegean peninsulas, and to a lesser extent the Caucasus region. Missing from this sampling were populations from the Italian peninsula and from North Africa, both regions known to have played important roles as glacial refugia for other species. Therefore, we genotyped field-collected winter moth individuals from southern Italy and northwestern Tunisia-the latter a region where severe oak forest defoliation by winter moth has recently been reported-using polymorphic microsatellite. We reconstructed the genetic relationships of these populations in comparison to moths previously sampled from the Iberian and Aegean peninsulas, the Caucasus region, and western Europe using genetic distance, Bayesian clustering, and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Our results indicate that both the southern Italian and the Tunisian populations are genetically distinct from other sampled populations, and likely originated in their respective refugium during the LGM after diverging from a population that eventually settled in the Iberian refugium. These suggest that winter moth populations persisted in at least five Mediterranean LGM refugia. Finally, we comment that outbreaks by winter moth in northwestern Tunisia are not the result of a recent introduction of a nonnative species, but rather are most likely due to land use or environmental changes.

Radial growth-based assessment of sites effects on pedunculate and greyish oak in southern Romania

This study focuses on the climate growth drivers of Quercus robur L. (pedunculate oak) and Q. robur subsp. pedunculiflora K. Koch. (greyish oak), occurring in the biodiversity of three sites in southern Romania. We determined the degree of tolerance of the greyish oak, between the tardive and praecox varieties, to environmental stress, between 1951 and 2016. Total tree ring-width (RW), and earlywood (EW) and latewood (LW) measurements were subject of periodical and monthly climate-growth analysis. Our results revealed a moderate relationship between climate and tree-growth. A significant and positive relationship was observed between RW and previous growing season precipitation. Mean and minimum temperatures affected both positive and negative tree-rings during the growing season. We also observed that winter and spring represent key seasons for differentiating tardive from praecox varieties, affecting the intra-annual variability of ring-width, and EW and LW parameters. The correlation between the tree-ring measurements and daily climate data shows a clear offset of the starting growth between greyish oak varieties. A weak influence of stressors on tree-growth at the sites was observed through pointer year and resilience components analysis.

Transgenerational Plasticity in Human-Altered Environments

Our ability to predict how species will respond to human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) may depend upon our understanding of transgenerational plasticity (TGP), which occurs when environments experienced by previous generations influence phenotypes of subsequent generations. TGP evolved to help organisms cope with environmental stressors when parental environments are highly predictive of offspring environments. HIREC can alter conditions that favored TGP in historical environments by reducing parents' ability to detect environmental conditions, disrupting previous correlations between parental and offspring environments, and interfering with the transmission of parental cues to offspring. Because of the propensity to produce errors in these processes, TGP will likely generate negative fitness outcomes in response to HIREC, though beneficial fitness outcomes may occur in some cases.

Factors influencing plasticity in the arrival-breeding interval in a migratory species reacting to climate change

Climate change is profoundly affecting the phenology of many species. In migratory birds, there is evidence for advances in their arrival time at the breeding ground and their timing of breeding, yet empirical studies examining the interdependence between arrival and breeding time are lacking. Hence, evidence is scarce regarding how breeding time may be adjusted via the arrival-breeding interval to help local populations adapt to local conditions or climate change. We used long-term data from an intensively monitored population of the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) to examine the factors related to the length of 734 separate arrival-to-breeding events from 549 individual females. From 1993 to 2017, the mean arrival and egg-laying dates advanced by approximately the same amount (~5-6 days), with considerable between-individual variation in the arrival-breeding interval. The arrival-breeding interval was shorter for: (a) individuals that arrived later in the season compared to early-arriving birds, (b) for experienced females compared to first-year breeders, (c) as spring progressed, and (d) in later years compared to earlier ones. The influence of these factors was much larger for birds arriving earlier in the season compared to later arriving birds, with most effects on variation in the arrival-breeding interval being absent in late-arriving birds. Thus, in this population it appears that the timing of breeding is not constrained by arrival for early- to midarriving birds, but instead is dependent on local conditions after arrival. For late-arriving birds, however, the timing of breeding appears to be influenced by arrival constraints. Hence, impacts of climate change on arrival dates and local conditions are expected to vary for different parts of the population, with potential negative impacts associated with these factors likely to differ for early- versus late-arriving birds.