Integrated Serologic Surveillance of Population Immunity and Disease Transmission

Rethinking statistical approaches for serological data analysis for viral surveillance

A robust serological surveillance system for zoonotic pathogens is imperative for both early detection and advancing knowledge of emerging diseases. A statistical analysis plan that is aligned to research and epidemiological goals requires a purposeful choice among alternative methods for differentiating seronegative from seropositive samples, estimating seroprevalence, and estimating risk factors associated with seropositivity. The common standard deviation-based cutoff (e.g., 3sd) approach is simple to implement and understand, but fails to appropriately propagate uncertainty in serostatus assignments to any risk factor analysis. Methods such as Gaussian mixture models, which jointly estimate serostatus, risk factors, and their uncertainty, can alleviate the dichotomy created by the cutoff approach. Yet, because of a lack of empirical guidance of method performance, it remains difficult to choose a robust analysis method for a given serological dataset. Here we examine the performance of both cutoff and clustering approaches using simulated datasets that represent the epidemiological, biological, and immunological data generation process. We focus on understudied pathogens for which validated serological assays do not exist, as is common in emerging viruses in wildlife. We quantify coverage (the proportion of time 95 % confidence intervals contain the true value) and bias (systematic differences between true values and model point estimates) of model estimates for individual serostatus assignments, population seroprevalence, and regression coefficients for serostatus risk factors. In nearly all scenarios, Bayesian mixture models provide the highest coverage and lowest bias. Only with very low seroprevalence (∼ < 3 %) and large differences in signal between seronegative and seropositive individuals will a cutoff provide low bias and near-nominal coverage. Given poor coverage of risk factor regression coefficients, we advise against using a cutoff approach for quantifying determinants of seropositivity.

Horizons of the Future: Preparedness and Response

In the last decades, we have witnessed the worldwide spread and growing impact of one of the most important neglected tropical diseases, the dengue fever. Even though it continues to be neglected mainly due to its major impact on the more socio and economically vulnerable populations there was progress toward a more complete understanding about the basic biology of dengue infection in mosquitoes and humans as well as translational research to develop antivirals and improved vaccines. Paradoxically, dengue fever incidence has steadily grown globally suggesting that the development/refinement of basic/translational research and control approaches are not keeping the pace of dengue spread. Therefore, in this last chapter, we will discuss the latest developments regarding preparedness and response against dengue, looking into their applicability to reduce dengue fever around the globe.

Integrated serological surveillance of communicable diseases in the Paraguayan Chaco, 2019

Objective

To establish baseline seroprevalence of soil-borne, waterborne, and foodborne diseases and to monitor diseases that are eliminated or on the path to elimination in the Paraguayan Chaco.

Methods

A total of 1 100 school-age children (6-15 years) were tested in urban and rural schools selected for a cross-cutting population-based survey using a two-stage probabilistic sample design in the three departments of the Paraguayan Chaco. Blood samples were taken on filter paper to measure IgG antibodies using a multiplex bead assay. Data collection was carried out through interviews with parents and caregivers. Access to basic sanitation and improved water was assessed. Differences in pathogen seropositivity and seroprotection were estimated by urban and rural areas.

Results

Seroprotection against measles was 62.9% and against rubella was 78.2%. Minimal diphtheria and tetanus seroprotection (≥0.01 IU/ml) was 92.9% and 98.3%, respectively. Seroprotective levels against these four vaccine-preventable diseases significantly decreased with increasing age (p < 0.05). The following pathogens and respective antigens showed significantly higher seroprevalence (p < 0.05) in rural areas compared with urban areas: Cryptosporidium parvum Cp17: 80.4% vs 64.6%, and Cp23: 60.6% vs 44.8%; Giardia lamblia VSP3: 26.9% vs 16.6%; Strongyloides stercoralis NIE: 11.5% vs 4.1%; and Taenia solium T24H: 7.1% vs 1.6%. Seroprevalence for these pathogens was also higher in Indigenous population when compared to non-Indigenous. Basic sanitation conditions showed significant differences (p < 0.05) between rural and urban areas: adobe and soil dwelling floor (65.3% vs 30.2%), use of pit latrine (90.3% vs 44.2%), availability of drainage or septic tank (8.7% vs 55.2%), access to safe water (19.7% vs 44.9%), and water treatment (6.8% vs 32.3%).

Conclusions

We identified high exposure to soil-borne, waterborne, and foodborne diseases in rural areas and Indigenous population in the Paraguayan Chaco. Low seroprotection against measles and rubella alerts about the risk of immunity gaps to maintain elimination targets.

A Multiplex Bead Serology Panel For Vaccine-Preventable Diseases Using Dried Blood Spots

Background

Vaccines are effective tools to improve public health. The effectiveness of vaccines is, however, dependent on the overall level of protection in a population. Antibodies to vaccine-related antigens are good biomarkers of protection and serosurveillance can help target vaccination programs. An integrated approach to perform serosurveillance on multiple vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) has been advocated and would be facilitated by a standardized multiplex immunoassay. In this report, we describe the evaluation of the performance of a multi-lyte bead-based serology panel for 12 VPDs which uses a dried blood spot sample from a finger prick (ImmunoProfile Antibody Test System).

Methods

Verification/validation studies were performed at a CLIA-certified clinical laboratory (BioAgilytix Labs, Boston, MA) on blood collected from dried blood spot (DBS) card samples from adults and children. In addition, proof-of-principle pilot serosurveillance studies were performed to demonstrate the potential of this test to identify protection gaps in adult and pediatric populations.

Results

This study demonstrates that the ImmunoProfile Antibody Test System has the requisite analytical performance to be a reliable tool for determining levels of protection to VPDs. The pilot serosurveillance studies demonstrate that this test reveals gaps in protection comparable to what has been shown using immunoassays for individual antibodies using serum samples.

Conclusion

Serological survey data obtained with the validated ImmunoProfile Antibody Test System could provide a wealth of information on levels of protection and could unearth vaccination gaps that may not have been anticipated.

The Use of Residual Blood Specimens in Seroprevalence Studies for Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: A Scoping Review

Background: Residual blood specimens offer a cost- and time-efficient alternative for conducting serological surveys. However, their use is often criticized due to potential issues with the representativeness of the target population and/or limited availability of associated metadata. We conducted a scoping review to examine where, when, how, and why residual blood specimens have been used in serological surveys for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) and how potential selection biases are addressed. Methods: The review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines and identified relevant papers published in 1990-2022. Results: A total of 601 articles met the inclusion criteria after title, abstract screening, and full-text review. The most studied VPDs using residual blood specimens were COVID-19 (27%), hepatitis E (16%), hepatitis B (10%), influenza (9%), HPV (7%), and measles (7%). Residual blood specimens were primarily sourced from diagnostic specimens (61%) or blood and plasma donations (37%). Almost all articles used specimens linked to basic demographic data (e.g., age and sex), with 47% having access to extended demographic data (e.g., geographic location). Common strategies to address potential biases included comparing results with published estimates (78%) and performing stratified analyses (71%). Conclusions: Residual blood specimens are widely used in seroprevalence studies, particularly during emerging disease outbreaks when rapid estimates are critical. However, this review highlighted inconsistencies in how researchers analyze and report the use of residual specimens. We propose a set of recommendations to improve the analysis, reporting, and ethical considerations of serological surveys using residual specimens.

The Utility of Infectious Disease Prevalence Studies to Inform Public Health Decision-Making in the Samoan Islands: A Systematic Review

We conducted a systematic review of infectious disease (ID) prevalence studies in the Samoan Islands from 2000 to 2024 and aimed to synthesise the prevalence of IDs, the purpose of the studies, and the potential utility of survey results for informing public health decision-making. We searched five academic databases, the Western Pacific Region Index Medicus, and grey literature up until April 2024. English language publications of ID surveys in American Samoa and Samoa were included. Each study's aim, design, and prevalence results were extracted and categorised by disease and data sources. We identified 46 publications reporting the prevalence of 15 different IDs; 42 publications (91%) reported data from 31 original surveys, of which three (9%) investigated the prevalence of multiple IDs. Twenty-eight (62%) publications primarily aimed to report prevalence to inform public health interventions. Samples from one survey, initially conducted for leptospirosis, were subsequently tested to confirm transmission, describe prevalence, and investigate risk factors for seven other diseases. We emphasise the valuable contribution of prevalence studies in supporting evidence-based public health interventions. The extensive prevalence studies in the Samoan Islands illustrate the need for adopting integrated multipathogen approaches to surveillance to reduce costs, document burden, and generate actionable insights to support evidence-based decisions to prevent, control, and eliminate infectious diseases.

SARS-CoV-2 serologic surveillance among people living with HIV in Nigeria, April 2022 to January 2023

OBJECTIVES

Evidence indicates that people living with HIV (PLHIV) are more impacted by COVID-19. The burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection among PLHIV is unknown in Nigeria.

METHODS

We conducted repeated cross-sectional SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys in 14 states and the Federal Capital Territory in Nigeria among PLHIV who had an HIV viral load (VL) test during April 2022 to January 2023. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies was assessed using a multiplex bead assay to measure IgG to spike (S), receptor binding domain (RBD), and nucleocapsid (N) proteins to identify potential infection and/or vaccination status.

RESULTS

Between April 2022 and January 2023, 47,614 remnant VL samples were included and tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as IgG antibodies to spike and RBD591 [S+] and nucleocapsid [N+], (S+N+), ranged between 21.1% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 11.4-31.8) in Ekiti State in January 2023 to 71.4% (95% CI 71.9-81.9) in Gombe State in November 2022, with overall steady trends within and between states over time, across age and sex.

CONCLUSION

High rates of SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence among PLHIV in Nigeria were observed. This underscores the need to understand the association between HIV and SARS-CoV-2 to inform strategies to reduce the threat posed by COVID-19.

Integrated Serosurveillance of Infectious Diseases Using Multiplex Bead Assays: A Systematic Review

Integrated serological surveillance (serosurveillance) involves testing for antibodies to multiple pathogens (or species) simultaneously and can be achieved using multiplex bead assays (MBAs). This systematic review aims to describe pathogens studied using MBAs, the operational implementation of MBAs, and how the data generated were synthesised. In November and December 2023, four databases were searched for studies utilising MBAs for the integrated serosurveillance of infectious diseases. Two reviewers independently screened and extracted data regarding the study settings and population, methodology, seroprevalence results, and operational implementation elements. Overall, 4765 studies were identified; 47 were eligible for inclusion, of which 41% (n = 19) investigated multiple malaria species, and 14% performed concurrent surveillance of malaria in combination with other infectious diseases (n = 14). Additionally, 14 studies (29%) investigated a combination of multiple infectious diseases (other than malaria), and seven studies examined a combination of vaccine-preventable diseases. Haiti (n = 8) was the most studied country, followed by Ethiopia (n = 6), Bangladesh (n = 3), Kenya (n = 3), and Tanzania (n = 3). Only seven studies were found where integrated serosurveillance was the primary objective. The synthesis of data varied and included the investigation of age-specific seroprevalence (n = 25), risk factor analysis (n = 15), and spatial analysis of disease prevalence (n = 8). This review demonstrated that the use of MBAs for integrated surveillance of multiple pathogens is gaining traction; however, more research and capabilities in lower- and middle-income countries are needed to optimise and standardise sample collection, survey implementation, and the analysis and interpretation of results. Geographical and population seroprevalence data can enable targeted public health interventions, highlighting the potential and importance of integrated serological surveillance as a public health tool.

Challenges and Approaches to Establishing Multi-Pathogen Serosurveillance: Findings from the 2023 Serosurveillance Summit

Multiplex-based serological surveillance is a valuable but underutilized tool to understand gaps in population-level exposure, susceptibility, and immunity to infectious diseases. Assays for which blood samples can be tested for antibodies against several pathogens simultaneously, such as multiplex bead immunoassays, can more efficiently integrate public health surveillance in low- and middle-income countries. On March 7-8, 2023 a group of experts representing research institutions, multilateral organizations, private industry, and country partners met to discuss experiences, identify challenges and solutions, and create a community of practice for integrated, multi-pathogen serosurveillance using multiplex bead assay technologies. Participants were divided into six working groups: 1) supply chain; 2) laboratory assays; 3) seroepidemiology; 4) data analytics; 5) sustainable implementation; and 6) use case scenarios. These working groups discussed experiences, challenges, solutions, and research needs to facilitate integrated, multi-pathogen serosurveillance for public health. Several solutions were proposed to address challenges that cut across working groups.

Validation of the Diabetomics CovAB SARS-CoV-2 antibody test in children: comparison with serology

Monitoring antibody prevalence is a valuable tool to evaluate the burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a community, identify risk factors, and assess the impact of clinical and public health intervention strategies. The antibody prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in children in the United States in early 2022 was estimated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to be 74.2%, using seroprevalence from a variety of sources. A study by the New Jersey Department of Health in late 2022/early 2023 in unvaccinated children found a lower prevalence, 68% when using a gum swab method to detect antibodies. This study compared the accuracy of the gum swab method to detect antibodies with simultaneously obtained serological samples in additional children. This cross-sectional study recruited well children, not vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2, aged 18 months to 11 years, who were scheduled for routine bloodwork at an inner-city university-based pediatric clinic. With parental consent, an extra 5 cc of blood and a gum swab sample were collected. Results from Diabetomics CovAb SARS-CoV-2 gum swab antibody test and Rutgers New Jersey Medical School enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay serology test for spike protein antibody were compared. The seropositivity of these paired samples was compared using McNemar's test, Cohen's kappa statistic, and other diagnostic accuracy statistics. From June through August 2023, 86 children were recruited. Antibody positivity by gum swab was 70.9% and by serology was 87.2%. The Cohen's kappa statistic was 0.39 indicating minimal agreement and McNemar's test was significant (P-value of 0.0010). Compared with serology, gum swab was 78.7% sensitive (95% CI 68.7% to 87.3%) and 81.8% specific (95% CI 48.2% to 97.7%). Positive and negative predictive values were 97.5% and 29.9%, respectively, and accuracy was 79.0%. Sensitivity in non-Hispanic versus Hispanic children was 74.2% versus 82.5%, and in children 6-11 years versus 18 months to 5 years, it was 74.2% versus 81.8%. While the gum swab method of antibody detection is not as sensitive or specific as serology, sample collection can be done in settings where phlebotomy is not feasible. This method could be useful in non-clinical settings such as surveillance, for assessing epidemiological trends and associations.

IMPORTANCE

Recently a study determining the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in unvaccinated children in NJ (Katic et al. 2023. Pediatric Academic Societies Meeting; Washington, D.C. https://2023.pas-meeting.org/searchbyposterbucket.asp?bm=Public+Health+%26+Prevention&t=Public+Health+%26+Prevention&pfp=Track) was conducted using a gum swab method for antibody detection. The Diabetomics CovAB test, which qualitatively identifies antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, is a point-of-care, low-cost test, that is easy to administer in children. While this test provides sensitive and specific results in adults [US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). 2022. Center for devices and radiological health. EUA authorized serology test performance. Available from: https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/covid-19-emergency-use-authorizations-medical-devices/eua-authorized-serology-test-performance], data on its accuracy in children is lacking. As a follow-up to the above-mentioned study, we compared the results of the gum swab test to a serologic antibody test. We found that the gum swab test was inferior to serology but was fairly sensitive and specific with a high positive predictive value. While the test is not ideal for diagnostic purposes in children it can be a valuable tool for public health officials and pediatricians to understand the extent of past health interventions.

Spatial targeting and integration across vaccination, vitamin A and deworming programs throughout India 2019-21

BACKGROUND

Currently, most large-scale public health programs, such as immunization or anti-parasitic deworming, work in relative isolation. Integrating efforts across programs could potentially improve their efficiency, but identifying populations that could benefit from multiple programs has been an operational challenge.

METHODS

We analyzed a nationally representative survey conducted in India between 2019 and 2021 to assess and map coverage of seven vaccines [Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), hepatitis B, polio, diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), haemophilus influenza type b (Hib), rotavirus and measles-containing vaccine (MCV)], plus Vitamin A supplementation and anti-parasitic deworming treatment among 86 761 children aged 1-3 years old.

RESULTS

National coverage varied widely by program, from 42% (rotavirus) to 95% (BCG). There was high correlation between district-level coverage estimates (r ≥ 0.7) and extensive spatial overlap in low-coverage populations. In simulated implementation strategies, we show that an integrated strategy that targets full immunization coverage for four core vaccines (BCG, polio, DTP, MCV) would achieve similar coverage to an optimal (but unrealistic) implementation strategy and far better coverage than multiple efforts focused on individual vaccines. Targeting the most under-vaccinated districts within states based on spatial clustering or coverage thresholds led to further improvements in full coverage per child targeted. Integration of anti-parasitic deworming or rotavirus vaccination into a core vaccine delivery mission could nearly double their coverage (from ∼45% to ∼85%).

CONCLUSIONS

Integrated delivery and geographic targeting across core vaccines could accelerate India's progress toward full immunization coverage. An integrated platform could greatly expand coverage of non-core vaccines and other child health interventions.

Characterizing trachoma elimination using serology

Trachoma is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Measurement of IgG antibodies in children is being considered for surveillance and programmatic decision-making. There are currently no guidelines for applications of serology, which represents a generalizable problem in seroepidemiology and disease elimination. We collated Chlamydia trachomatis Pgp3 and CT694 IgG measurements (63,911 children ages 1-9 years) from 48 serosurveys, including surveys across Africa, Latin America, and the Pacific Islands to estimate population-level seroconversion rates (SCR) along a gradient of trachoma endemicity. We propose a novel, generalizable approach to estimate the probability that population C. trachomatis transmission is below levels requiring ongoing programmatic action, or conversely is above levels that indicate ongoing interventions are needed. We provide possible thresholds for SCR at a specified level of certainty and illustrate how the approach could be used to inform trachoma program decision-making using serology.

Integrated Serosurveillance for Onchocerciasis, Lymphatic Filariasis, and Schistosomiasis in North Darfur, Sudan

Sudan is endemic for multiple neglected tropical diseases, including trachoma, onchocerciasis (OV), lymphatic filariasis (LF), and schistosomiasis (SCH). In 2019, dried blood spot samples were collected for a baseline trachoma serosurvey in three localities (El Seraif, Kotom, and Saraf Omrah) in North Darfur State. None were classified previously as OV- or LF-endemic, although low levels of SCH had been identified in all three. Approximately 30 households from 25 communities in each locality were selected by multistage cluster random sampling. Collections of DBSs were analyzed by multiplex bead assay for antibodies to multiple pathogens. This paper presents data on OV (Ov16), LF (Wb123, Bm14, Bm33), and SCH (soluble egg antigen [SEA], Sm25) antibodies among 8,322 individuals from 2,119 households. The survey-adjusted seroprevalence estimates for Ov16 were <0.3% in all localities. Lymphatic filariasis-antigen seroprevalences were discordant. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 4.6-6.0% (Wb123), 0.99-1.4% (Bm14), and 29.2-33.3% (Bm33). Schistosomiasis seroprevalence estimates among school-aged children ranged from 2.7-8.0% (SEA) and 10.9-15.6% (Sm25). Ov16 seropositivity was low and supported the localities' classification as nonendemic. The results suggested LF exposure, but discordance between antigens, challenges defining seropositivity thresholds, and the absence of programmatic guidance based on antibody serology alone for Wuchereria bancrofti indicate a need for remapping surveys to confirm transmission. Schistosomiasis antibody levels were high enough to warrant further mapping to guide treatment decisions. The lack of gold standards limited interpretation of results, particularly for LF, but in resource-challenged areas, integrated serological surveillance offers the possibility of efficient monitoring of exposure to multiple diseases.

Serosurveillance for Measles and Rubella

Measles and rubella remain global health threats, despite the availability of safe and effective vaccines. Estimates of population immunity are crucial for achieving elimination goals and assessing the impact of vaccination programs, yet conducting well-designed serosurveys can be challenging, especially in resource-limited settings. In this review, we provide a comprehensive assessment of 130 measles and rubella studies published from January 2014 to January 2024. Methodologies and design aspects of serosurveys varied greatly, including sample size, assay type, and population demographics. Most studies utilized enzyme immunoassays for IgG detection. Sample sizes showed diverse sampling methods but favored convenience sampling despite its limitations. Studies spanned 59 countries, predominantly including adults, and revealed disparities in seroprevalence across demographics, regions, and notably among migrants and women. Age-related declines in antibodies were observed, particularly among infants, and correlations between vaccination status and seropositivity varied. We conclude with an outlook on measles and rubella serosurveillance, emphasizing the need for proper survey design and the advantages of standardized, multiplex serology assays.

shinyMBA: a novel R shiny application for quality control of the multiplex bead assay for serosurveillance studies

The multiplex bead assay (MBA) based on Luminex xMAP technology can be used as a tool to measure seroprevalence as part of population immunity evaluations to multiple antigens in large-scale serosurveys. However, multiplexing several antigens presents challenges for quality control (QC) assessments of the data because multiple parameters must be evaluated for each antigen. MBA QC parameters include monitoring bead counts and median fluorescence intensity (MFI) for each antigen in plate wells, and performance of assay controls included on each plate. Analyzing these large datasets to identify plates failing QC standards presents challenges for many laboratories. We developed a novel R Shiny application, shinyMBA, to expedite the MBA QC processes and reduce the risk of user error. The app allows users to rapidly merge multi-plate assay outputs to evaluate bead count, MFI, and performance of assay controls using statistical process control charts for all antigen targets simultaneously. The utility of the shinyMBA application and its various outputs are demonstrated using data from 32 synthetic xPONENT files with 3 multiplex antigens and two population serosurveillance studies that evaluated 1200 and 3871 samples, respectively, for 20 multiplexed antigens. The shinyMBA open-source code is available for download and modification at https://github.com/CDCgov/shinyMBA . Incorporation of shinyMBA into Luminex serosurveillance workflows can vastly improve the speed and accuracy of QC processes.

Exploring Natural Immune Responses to Shigella Exposure Using Multiplex Bead Assays on Dried Blood Spots in High-Burden Countries: Protocol From a Multisite Diarrhea Surveillance Study

Background

Molecular diagnostics on human fecal samples have identified a larger burden of shigellosis than previously appreciated by culture. Evidence of fold changes in immunoglobulin G (IgG) to conserved and type-specific Shigella antigens could be used to validate the molecular assignment of type-specific Shigella as the etiology of acute diarrhea and support polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based microbiologic end points for vaccine trials.

Methods

We will test dried blood spots collected at enrollment and 4 weeks later using bead-based immunoassays for IgG to invasion plasmid antigen B and type-specific lipopolysaccharide O-antigen for Shigella flexneri 1b, 2a, 3a, and 6 and Shigella sonnei in Shigella-positive cases and age-, site-, and season-matched test-negative controls from all sites in the Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study. Fold antibody responses will be compared between culture-positive, culture-negative but PCR-attributable, and PCR-positive but not attributable cases and test-negative controls. Age- and site-specific seroprevalence distributions will be identified, and the association between baseline antibodies and Shigella attribution will be estimated.

Conclusions

The integration of these assays into the EFGH study will help support PCR-based attribution of acute diarrhea to type-specific Shigella, describe the baseline seroprevalence of conserved and type-specific Shigella antibodies, and support correlates of protection for immunity to Shigella diarrhea. These insights can help support the development and evaluation of Shigella vaccine candidates.

Virus Neutralization Test for Detecting and Quantifying Serum-Neutralizing Antibodies to Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (EHDV) (Serotypes 1, 2, and 4-8)

The virus neutralization test (VNT) is a functional immunoassay which detects the presence and quantity of neutralizing antibodies. It is a highly sensitive and specific test. As with most neutralization assays, the EHDV VNT does not react with all virus-targeting antibodies, but specifically with those antibodies that bind to VP2, the outermost capsid structural protein of the virus. The interaction between VP2 and neutralizing antibodies can block EHDV cell binding, neutralizing its infectivity. The detection and quantification of neutralizing antibodies are indicative of how protected an animal is against reinfection. The EHD VNT can therefore be a useful tool to monitor the efficacy of a vaccination campaign. VP2 is also the main determinant of EHDV serotype specificity, and so EHDV-neutralizing antibodies which target VP2 are also serotype-specific. Throughdetecting and quantifying neutralizing antibodies, the VNT can discriminate the EHDV serotype responsible for an infection and provides insights into the time of infection. It is considered the gold standard test for identifying and quantifying antibodies against EHDV serotypes present in test serum samples. The assay is performed in vitro and is based on inhibition of virus infectivity in the presence of neutralizing antibodies. A neutralizing antibody titer is determined through the presence or absence of cytopathic effect in a cell monolayer. The VNT is a relatively inexpensive assay using standard laboratory equipment; however, to perform the assay, cell cultures, significant time, intensive labor, and technical skill are required.

Multiplex Bead Assay for the Serological Surveillance of Measles and Rubella

There is increasing interest in evaluating antibody responses to multiple antigen targets in a single assay. Immunity to measles and rubella are often evaluated together because immunity is provided through combined vaccines and because routine immunization efforts and surveillance for measles and rubella pathogens are combined in many countries. The multiplex bead assay (MBA) also known as the multiplex immunoassay (MIA) described here combines the measurement of measles- and rubella-specific IgG antibodies in serum quantitatively according to international serum standards and has been successfully utilized in integrated serological surveillance.

Evaluation of the accuracy of a multi-infection screening test based on a multiplex immunoassay targeting imported diseases common in migrant populations

BACKGROUND

We aimed to evaluate the performance of a novel multiplex serological assay, able to simultaneously detect IgG of six infections, as a screening tool for imported diseases in migrants.

METHODS

Six panels of 40 (n = 240) anonymized serum samples with confirmed infections were used as positive controls to assess the multiplex assay's sensitivity. One panel of 40 sera from non-infected subjects was used to estimate the seropositivity cutoffs, and 32 non-infected sera were used as negative controls to estimate each serology's sensitivity and specificity. The multi-infection screening test was validated in a prospective cohort of 48 migrants from endemic areas. The sensitivity of the Luminex assay was calculated as the proportion of positive results over all positive samples identified by reference tests. The specificity was calculated using 32 negative samples. Uncertainty was quantified with 95 % confidence intervals using receiver operating characteristic analyses.

RESULTS

The sensitivity/specificity were 100 %/100 % for HIV (gp41 antigen), 97.5 %/100 % for Hepatitis B virus (HBV-core antigen), 100 %/100 % for Hepatitis C virus (HCV-core antigen), 92.5 %/90.6 % for strongyloidiasis [31-kDa recombinant antigen (NIE)], 97.5 %/100 % for schistosomiasis (combined serpin Schistosoma mansoni and S.haematobium antigens) and 95 %/90.6 % for Chagas disease [combined Trypanosoma cruzi kinetoplastid membrane protein-11 (KMP11) and paraflagellar rod proteins 2 (PFR2) antigens]. In the migrant cohort, antibody response to the combination of the T.cruzi antigens correctly identified 100 % individuals, whereas HBV-core antigen correctly identified 91.7 % and Strongyloides-NIE antigen 86.4 %.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a new, robust and accurate 8-plex Luminex assay that could facilitate the implementation of screening programmes targeting migrant populations.

Past and present seroprevalence and disease burden estimates of Toxoplasma gondii infections in Germany: An appreciation of the role of serodiagnostics

Toxoplasmosis is one of the major foodborne parasitic diseases in Germany, with 49% of its population chronically infected with its causative agent, Toxoplasma gondii. Although the acute disease is usually benign in immunocompetent individuals, it is a threat for immunocompromised patients as well as for fetuses of seronegative mothers. As a result of infection, congenital and ocular toxoplasmosis can have serious lifelong consequences. Here I will highlight the epidemiologic situation, from its past in the two separate parts of Germany, to its unification 30 years ago and up to the present day. The main identified risk factor for infection in Germany is thought to be the consumption of undercooked or raw meat or sausages. However, the relative impact of this risky eating habit as well as that of other risk factors are changing and are discussed and compared to the situation in the Netherlands. Finally, the importance of robust and efficient high-throughput serological assays for obtaining reliable epidemiological data, on which public health decisions can be made, is highlighted. The potential of bead-based multiplex assays, which allow the incorporation of multiple antigens with different analytical properties and thus yield additional information, are described in this context. It illustrates the interdependence of new analytic assay developments and sound epidemiology, a foundation that decades-old data from Germany did not have.

Multi-perspectives and challenges in identifying B-cell epitopes

The identification of B-cell epitopes (BCEs) in antigens is a crucial step in developing recombinant vaccines or immunotherapies for various diseases. Over the past four decades, numerous in silico methods have been developed for predicting BCEs. However, existing reviews have only covered specific aspects, such as the progress in predicting conformational or linear BCEs. Therefore, in this paper, we have undertaken a systematic approach to provide a comprehensive review covering all aspects associated with the identification of BCEs. First, we have covered the experimental techniques developed over the years for identifying linear and conformational epitopes, including the limitations and challenges associated with these techniques. Second, we have briefly described the historical perspectives and resources that maintain experimentally validated information on BCEs. Third, we have extensively reviewed the computational methods developed for predicting conformational BCEs from the structure of the antigen, as well as the methods for predicting conformational epitopes from the sequence. Fourth, we have systematically reviewed the in silico methods developed in the last four decades for predicting linear or continuous BCEs. Finally, we have discussed the overall challenge of identifying continuous or conformational BCEs. In this review, we only listed major computational resources; a complete list with the URL is available from the BCinfo website (https://webs.iiitd.edu.in/raghava/bcinfo/).

Monitoring transmission intensity of trachoma with serology

Trachoma, caused by ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. To provide evidence for use of antibodies to monitor C. trachomatis transmission, we collated IgG responses to Pgp3 antigen, PCR positivity, and clinical observations from 19,811 children aged 1-9 years in 14 populations. We demonstrate that age-seroprevalence curves consistently shift along a gradient of transmission intensity: rising steeply in populations with high levels of infection and active trachoma and becoming flat in populations near elimination. Seroprevalence (range: 0-54%) and seroconversion rates (range: 0-15 per 100 person-years) correlate with PCR prevalence (r: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.97). A seroprevalence threshold of 13.5% (seroconversion rate 2.75 per 100 person-years) identifies clusters with any PCR-identified infection at high sensitivity ( >90%) and moderate specificity (69-75%). Antibody responses in young children provide a robust, generalizable approach to monitor population progress toward and beyond trachoma elimination.

Using Serological Markers for the Surveillance of Plasmodium vivax Malaria: A Scoping Review

The utilisation of serological surveillance methods for malaria has the potential to identify individuals exposed to Plasmodium vivax, including asymptomatic carriers. However, the application of serosurveillance varies globally, including variations in methodology and transmission context. No systematic review exists describing the advantages and disadvantages of utilising serosurveillance in various settings. Collation and comparison of these results is a necessary first step to standardise and validate the use of serology for the surveillance of P. vivax in specific transmission contexts. A scoping review was performed of P. vivax serosurveillance applications globally. Ninety-four studies were found that met predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. These studies were examined to determine the advantages and disadvantages of serosurveillance experienced in each study. If studies reported seroprevalence results, this information was also captured. Measurement of antibodies serves as a proxy by which individuals exposed to P. vivax may be indirectly identified, including those with asymptomatic infections, which may be missed by other technologies. Other thematic advantages identified included the ease and simplicity of serological assays compared to both microscopy and molecular diagnostics. Seroprevalence rates varied widely from 0-93%. Methodologies must be validated across various transmission contexts to ensure the applicability and comparability of results. Other thematic disadvantages identified included challenges with species cross-reactivity and determining changes in transmission patterns in both the short- and long-term. Serosurveillance requires further refinement to be fully realised as an actionable tool. Some work has begun in this area, but more is required.

Monitoring transmission intensity of trachoma with serology

Trachoma, caused by ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. To provide evidence for use of antibodies to monitor C. trachomatis transmission, we collated IgG responses to Pgp3 antigen, PCR positivity, and clinical observations from 19,811 children aged 1- 9 years in 14 populations. We demonstrate that age-seroprevalence curves consistently shift along a gradient of transmission intensity: rising steeply in populations with high levels of infection and active trachoma and becoming flat in populations near elimination. Seroprevalence (range: 0-54%) and seroconversion rates (range: 0-15 per 100 person-years) correlate with PCR prevalence (r: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.97). A seroprevalence threshold of 13.5% (seroconversion rate 2.75 per 100 person-years) identifies clusters with any PCR-identified infection at high sensitivity (>90%) and moderate specificity (69-75%). Antibody responses in young children provide a robust, generalizable approach to monitor population progress toward and beyond trachoma elimination.

Serosurveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Welsh Blood Donors: Establishment of the surveillance system and results up to November 2022

BackgroundIn 2020, Wales experienced some of the highest rates of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Europe. We set up a serosurveillance scheme using residual samples from blood donations to inform the pandemic response in Wales.AimTo identify changes in SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence in Wales by time, demography and location.MethodsResidual samples from blood donations made in Wales between 29 June 2020 and 20 November 2022 were tested for antibodies to the nucleocapsid antigen (anti-N) of SARS-CoV-2, resulting from natural infection. Donations made between 12 April 2021 and 20 November 2022 were also tested for antibodies to the spike antigen (anti-S) occurring as a result of natural infection and vaccination.ResultsAge-standardised seroprevalence of anti-N antibodies in donors remained stable (4.4-5.5%) until November 2020 before increasing to 16.7% by February 2021. Trends remained steady until November 2021 before increasing, peaking in November 2022 (80.2%). For anti-S, seroprevalence increased from 67.1% to 98.6% between May and September 2021, then remained above 99%. Anti-N seroprevalence was highest in younger donors and in donors living in urban South Wales. In contrast, seroprevalence of anti-S was highest in older donors and was similar across regions. No significant difference was observed by sex. Seroprevalence of anti-N antibodies was higher in Black, Asian and other minority ethnicities (self-reported) compared with White donors, with the converse observed for anti-S antibodies.ConclusionWe successfully set up long-term serological surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 using residual samples from blood donations, demonstrating variation based on age, ethnicity and location.

Tetanus and Diphtheria Seroprotection among Children Younger Than 15 Years in Nigeria, 2018: Who Are the Unprotected Children?

Serological surveys provide an objective biological measure of population immunity, and tetanus serological surveys can also assess vaccination coverage. We undertook a national assessment of immunity to tetanus and diphtheria among Nigerian children aged <15 years using stored specimens collected during the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey, a national cross-sectional household-based survey. We used a validated multiplex bead assay to test for tetanus and diphtheria toxoid-antibodies. In total, 31,456 specimens were tested. Overall, 70.9% and 84.3% of children aged <15 years had at least minimal seroprotection (≥0.01 IU/mL) against tetanus and diphtheria, respectively. Seroprotection was lowest in the north west and north east zones. Factors associated with increased tetanus seroprotection included living in the southern geopolitical zones, urban residence, and higher wealth quintiles (p < 0.001). Full seroprotection (≥0.1 IU/mL) was the same for tetanus (42.2%) and diphtheria (41.7%), while long-term seroprotection (≥1 IU/mL) was 15.1% for tetanus and 6.0% for diphtheria. Full- and long-term seroprotection were higher in boys compared to girls (p < 0.001). Achieving high infant vaccination coverage by targeting specific geographic areas and socio-economic groups and introducing tetanus and diphtheria booster doses in childhood and adolescence are needed to achieve lifelong protection against tetanus and diphtheria and prevent maternal and neonatal tetanus.

Influence of Landscape Patterns on Exposure to Lassa Fever Virus, Guinea

Lassa fever virus (LASV) is the causative agent of Lassa fever, a disease endemic in West Africa. Exploring the relationships between environmental factors and LASV transmission across ecologically diverse regions can provide crucial information for the design of appropriate interventions and disease monitoring. We investigated LASV exposure in 2 ecologically diverse regions of Guinea. Our results showed that exposure to LASV was heterogenous between and within sites. LASV IgG seropositivity was 11.9% (95% CI 9.7%-14.5%) in a coastal study site in Basse-Guinée, but it was 59.6% (95% CI 55.5%-63.5%) in a forested study site located in Guinée Forestière. Seropositivity increased with age in the coastal site. We also found significant associations between exposure risk for LASV and landscape fragmentation in coastal and forested regions. Our study highlights the potential link between environmental change and LASV emergence and the urgent need for research on land management practices that reduce disease risks.

Lessons learned from the implementation of integrated serosurveillance of communicable diseases in the Americas

Objective

Systematize the experience and identify challenges and lessons learned in the implementation of an initiative for integrated serosurveillance of communicable diseases using a multiplex bead assay in countries of the Americas.

Methods

Documents produced in the initiative were compiled and reviewed. These included concept notes, internal working papers, regional meetings reports, and survey protocols from the three participating countries (Mexico, Paraguay, and Brazil) and two additional countries (Guyana and Guatemala) where serology for several communicable diseases was included in neglected tropical diseases surveys. Information was extracted and summarized to describe the experience and the most relevant challenges and lessons learned.

Results

Implementing integrated serosurveys requires interprogrammatic and interdisciplinary work teams for the design of survey protocols to respond to key programmatic questions aligned to the needs of the countries. Valid laboratory results are critical and rely on the standardized installment and roll-out of laboratory techniques. Field teams require adequate training and supervision to properly implement survey procedures. The analysis and interpretation of serosurveys results should be antigen-specific, contextualizing the responses for each disease, and triangulated with programmatic and epidemiological data for making decisions tailored to specific population socioeconomic and ecologic contexts.

Conclusions

Integrated serosurveillance as a complementary tool for functional epidemiological surveillance systems is feasible to use and key components should be considered: political engagement, technical engagement, and integrated planning. Aspects such as designing the protocol, selecting target populations and diseases, laboratory capacities, anticipating the capacities to analyze and interpret complex data, and how to use it are key.

Identifying Recent Cholera Infections Using a Multiplex Bead Serological Assay

Estimates of incidence based on medically attended cholera can be severely biased. Vibrio cholerae O1 leaves a lasting antibody signal and recent advances showed that these can be used to estimate infection incidence rates from cross-sectional serologic data. Current laboratory methods are resource intensive and challenging to standardize across laboratories. A multiplex bead assay (MBA) could efficiently expand the breadth of measured antibody responses and improve seroincidence accuracy. We tested 305 serum samples from confirmed cholera cases (4 to 1083 d postinfection) and uninfected contacts in Bangladesh using an MBA (IgG/IgA/IgM for 7 Vibrio cholerae O1-specific antigens) as well as traditional vibriocidal and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (2 antigens, IgG, and IgA). While postinfection vibriocidal responses were larger than other markers, several MBA-measured antibodies demonstrated robust responses with similar half-lives. Random forest models combining all MBA antibody measures allowed for accurate identification of recent cholera infections (e.g., past 200 days) including a cross-validated area under the curve (cvAUC200) of 92%, with simpler 3 IgG antibody models having similar accuracy. Across infection windows between 45 and 300 days, the accuracy of models trained on MBA measurements was non-inferior to models based on traditional assays. Our results illustrated a scalable cholera serosurveillance tool that can be incorporated into multipathogen serosurveillance platforms. IMPORTANCE Reliable estimates of cholera incidence are challenged by poor clinical surveillance and health-seeking behavior biases. We showed that cross-sectional serologic profiles measured with a high-throughput multiplex bead assay can lead to accurate identification of those infected with pandemic Vibrio cholerae O1, thus allowing for estimates of seroincidence. This provides a new avenue for understanding the epidemiology of cholera, identifying priority areas for cholera prevention/control investments, and tracking progress in the global fight against this ancient disease.

Building an integrated serosurveillance platform to inform public health interventions: Insights from an experts' meeting on serum biomarkers

The use of biomarkers to measure immune responses in serum is crucial for understanding population-level exposure and susceptibility to human pathogens. Advances in sample collection, multiplex testing, and computational modeling are transforming serosurveillance into a powerful tool for public health program design and response to infectious threats. In July 2018, 70 scientists from 16 countries met to perform a landscape analysis of approaches that support an integrated serosurveillance platform, including the consideration of issues for successful implementation. Here, we summarize the group's insights and proposed roadmap for implementation, including objectives, technical requirements, ethical issues, logistical considerations, and monitoring and evaluation.

Performance of SARS-CoV-2 Antigens in a Multiplex Bead Assay for Integrated Serological Surveillance of Neglected Tropical and Other Diseases

Serosurveillance can provide estimates of population-level exposure to infectious pathogens and has been used extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic. Simultaneous, serological testing for multiple pathogens can be done using bead-based immunoassays to add value to disease-specific serosurveys. We conducted a validation of four SARS-CoV-2 antigens-full-length spike protein, two receptor binding domain proteins, and the nucleocapsid protein-on our existing multiplex bead assay (MBA) for enteric diseases, malaria, and vaccine preventable diseases. After determining the optimal conditions for coupling the antigens to microsphere beads, the sensitivity and specificity of the assay were determined on two instruments (Luminex-200 and MAGPIX) when testing singly (monoplex) versus combined (multiplex). Sensitivity was assessed using plasma from 87 real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) positive persons collected in March-May of 2020 and ranged from 94.3% to 96.6% for the different testing conditions. Specificity was assessed using 98 plasma specimens collected prior to December 2019 and plasma from 19 rRT-PCR negative persons and ranged from 97.4% to 100%. The positive percent agreement was 93.8% to 97.9% using 48 specimens collected > 21 days post-symptom onset, while the negative percent agreement was ≥ 99% for all antigens. Test performance was similar using monoplex or multiplex testing. Integrating SARS-CoV-2 serology with other diseases of public health interest could add significant value to public health programs that have suffered severe programmatic setbacks during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Serology as a Tool to Assess Infectious Disease Landscapes and Guide Public Health Policy

Understanding the local burden and epidemiology of infectious diseases is crucial to guide public health policy and prioritize interventions. Typically, infectious disease surveillance relies on capturing clinical cases within a healthcare system, classifying cases by etiology and enumerating cases over a period of time. Disease burden is often then extrapolated to the general population. Serology (i.e., examining serum for the presence of pathogen-specific antibodies) has long been used to inform about individuals past exposure and immunity to specific pathogens. However, it has been underutilized as a tool to evaluate the infectious disease burden landscape at the population level and guide public health decisions. In this review, we outline how serology provides a powerful tool to complement case-based surveillance for determining disease burden and epidemiology of infectious diseases, highlighting its benefits and limitations. We describe the current serology-based technologies and illustrate their use with examples from both the pre- and post- COVID-19-pandemic context. In particular, we review the challenges to and opportunities in implementing serological surveillance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), which bear the brunt of the global infectious disease burden. Finally, we discuss the relevance of serology data for public health decision-making and describe scenarios in which this data could be used, either independently or in conjunction with case-based surveillance. We conclude that public health systems would greatly benefit from the inclusion of serology to supplement and strengthen existing case-based infectious disease surveillance strategies.

Leveraging a national biorepository in Zambia to assess measles and rubella immunity gaps across age and space

High-quality, representative serological surveys allow direct estimates of immunity profiles to inform vaccination strategies but can be costly and logistically challenging. Leveraging residual serum samples is one way to increase their feasibility. We subsampled 9854 residual sera from a 2016 national HIV survey in Zambia and tested these specimens for anti-measles and anti-rubella virus IgG antibodies using indirect enzyme immunoassays. We demonstrate innovative methods for sampling residual sera and analyzing seroprevalence data, as well as the value of seroprevalence estimates to understand and control measles and rubella. National measles and rubella seroprevalence for individuals younger than 50 years was 82.8% (95% CI 81.6, 83.9%) and 74.9% (95% CI 73.7, 76.0%), respectively. Despite a successful childhood vaccination program, measles immunity gaps persisted across age groups and districts, indicating the need for additional activities to complement routine immunization. Prior to vaccine introduction, we estimated a rubella burden of 96 congenital rubella syndrome cases per 100,000 live births. Residual samples from large-scale surveys can reduce the cost and challenges of conducting serosurveys, and multiple pathogens can be tested. Procedures to access quality specimens, ensure ethical approvals, and link sociodemographic data can improve the timeliness and value of results.

Spatial epidemiology and adaptive targeted sampling to manage the Chagas disease vector Triatoma dimidiata

Widespread application of insecticide remains the primary form of control for Chagas disease in Central America, despite only temporarily reducing domestic levels of the endemic vector Triatoma dimidiata and having little long-term impact. Recently, an approach emphasizing community feedback and housing improvements has been shown to yield lasting results. However, the additional resources and personnel required by such an intervention likely hinders its widespread adoption. One solution to this problem would be to target only a subset of houses in a community while still eliminating enough infestations to interrupt disease transfer. Here we develop a sequential sampling framework that adapts to information specific to a community as more houses are visited, thereby allowing us to efficiently find homes with domiciliary vectors while minimizing sampling bias. The method fits Bayesian geostatistical models to make spatially informed predictions, while gradually transitioning from prioritizing houses based on prediction uncertainty to targeting houses with a high risk of infestation. A key feature of the method is the use of a single exploration parameter, α, to control the rate of transition between these two design targets. In a simulation study using empirical data from five villages in southeastern Guatemala, we test our method using a range of values for α, and find it can consistently select fewer homes than random sampling, while still bringing the village infestation rate below a given threshold. We further find that when additional socioeconomic information is available, much larger savings are possible, but that meeting the target infestation rate is less consistent, particularly among the less exploratory strategies. Our results suggest new options for implementing long-term T. dimidiata control.

Effective public health interventions for the control and elimination of neglected tropical diseases require an efficient use of resources while still causing long-term disease reduction at the community level. To use resources to best effect, areas most in need of control efforts must be identified. However, strategies for correctly identifying these areas are rarely known due to the complex environmental, biological, and cultural factors shaping disease spread. In turn, incorrect prioritization of control targets can cause the intervention to have no lasting effect. We address this tradeoff between efficiency and efficacy by adapting control priorities throughout an intervention, targeting areas of high uncertainty during the initial stages while shifting to areas of greatest risk at later stages. In the context of controlling Triatoma dimidiata, the primary vector of Chagas disease in several countries in Latin America, our methods provide a means of targeting only a subset of homes for insecticide and housing improvements, while still reducing a village’s overall infestation rate below the critical threshold.

Development of a Bead-Based Multiplex Assay for Use in Multianalyte Screening and Surveillance of HIV, Viral Hepatitis, Syphilis, and Herpes

Diagnostic assays that can simultaneously determine the presence of infection with multiple pathogens are key for diagnosis and surveillance. Current multiplex diagnostic assays are complex and often have limited availability. We developed a simple, multianalyte, pathogen detection assay for screening and serosurveillance using the Luminex Magpix platform that is high throughput and can be helpful in monitoring multiple diseases. The Luminex bead-based 10-plex immunoassay for the detection of HIV-1, HIV-2, Treponema pallidum, hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1), and HSV-2 infections was accomplished by coupling beads with specific antigens to detect IgG antibodies in plasma or serum samples. Each coupled antigen was systematically optimized, and the performance was evaluated using a panel of well-characterized specimens (n = 417) that contained antibodies to HIV-1, HIV-2, T. pallidum, HBV, HCV, HSV-1, and HSV-2. The multiplex assay had a sensitivity of 92.2% (95% Clopper-Pearson confidence interval [CI], 90.2 to 94.0%) and a specificity of 98.1% (95% CI, 97.6 to 98.7%). The sensitivities and specificities for disease-specific biomarker detection ranged from 68.7 to 100% and 95.6 to 100%, respectively. The results showed that the 10-plex immunoassay had an overall agreement of 96.7% (95% CI, 96.7 to 97.3%) with reference tests and a corresponding kappa value of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.90 to 0.93). Kappa values for the individual pathogens ranged from 0.69 to 1.00. The assay is robust and allows the simultaneous detection of antibodies to multiple antigens using a small sample volume in a high-throughput format. This assay has the potential to simplify disease surveillance by providing an alternative to expensive and highly specialized individual tests.

Characterising spatial patterns of neglected tropical disease transmission using integrated sero-surveillance in Northern Ghana

Background

As prevalence decreases in pre-elimination settings, identifying the spatial distribution of remaining infections to target control measures becomes increasingly challenging. By measuring multiple antibody responses indicative of past exposure to different pathogens, integrated serological surveys enable simultaneous characterisation of residual transmission of multiple pathogens.

Methodology/Principal findings

Here, we combine integrated serological surveys with geostatistical modelling and remote sensing-derived environmental data to estimate the spatial distribution of exposure to multiple diseases in children in Northern Ghana. The study utilised the trachoma surveillance survey platform (cross-sectional two-stage cluster-sampled surveys) to collect information on additional identified diseases at different stages of elimination with minimal additional cost. Geostatistical modelling of serological data allowed identification of areas with high probabilities of recent exposure to diseases of interest, including areas previously unknown to control programmes. We additionally demonstrate how serological surveys can be used to identify areas with exposure to multiple diseases and to prioritise areas with high uncertainty for future surveys. Modelled estimates of cluster-level prevalence were strongly correlated with more operationally feasible metrics of antibody responses.

Conclusions/Significance

This study demonstrates the potential of integrated serological surveillance to characterise spatial distributions of exposure to multiple pathogens in low transmission and elimination settings when the probability of detecting infections is low.

Lymphatic filariasis in 2016 in American Samoa: Identifying clustering and hotspots using non-spatial and three spatial analytical methods

BACKGROUND

American Samoa completed seven rounds of mass drug administration from 2000-2006 as part of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF). However, resurgence was confirmed in 2016 through WHO-recommended school-based transmission assessment survey and a community-based survey. This paper uses data from the 2016 community survey to compare different spatial and non-spatial methods to characterise clustering and hotspots of LF.

METHOD

Non-spatial clustering of infection markers (antigen [Ag], microfilaraemia [Mf], and antibodies (Ab [Wb123, Bm14, Bm33]) was assessed using intra-cluster correlation coefficients (ICC) at household and village levels. Spatial dependence, clustering and hotspots were examined using semivariograms, Kulldorf's scan statistic and Getis-Ord Gi* statistics based on locations of surveyed households.

RESULTS

The survey included 2671 persons (750 households, 730 unique locations in 30 villages). ICCs were higher at household (0.20-0.69) than village levels (0.10-0.30) for all infection markers. Semivariograms identified significant spatial dependency for all markers (range 207-562 metres). Using Kulldorff's scan statistic, significant spatial clustering was observed in two previously known locations of ongoing transmission: for all markers in Fagali'i and all Abs in Vaitogi. Getis-Ord Gi* statistic identified hotspots of all markers in Fagali'i, Vaitogi, and Pago Pago-Anua areas. A hotspot of Ag and Wb123 Ab was identified around the villages of Nua-Seetaga-Asili. Bm14 and Bm33 Ab hotspots were seen in Maleimi and Vaitogi-Ili'ili-Tafuna.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated the utility of different non-spatial and spatial methods for investigating clustering and hotspots, the benefits of using multiple infection markers, and the value of triangulating results between methods.

Predicting future community-level ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection prevalence using serological, clinical, molecular, and geospatial data

Trachoma is an infectious disease characterized by repeated exposures to Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) that may ultimately lead to blindness. Efficient identification of communities with high infection burden could help target more intensive control efforts. We hypothesized that IgG seroprevalence in combination with geospatial layers, machine learning, and model-based geostatistics would be able to accurately predict future community-level ocular Ct infections detected by PCR. We used measurements from 40 communities in the hyperendemic Amhara region of Ethiopia to assess this hypothesis. Median Ct infection prevalence among children 0-5 years old increased from 6% at enrollment, in the context of recent mass drug administration (MDA), to 29% by month 36, following three years without MDA. At baseline, correlation between seroprevalence and Ct infection was stronger among children 0-5 years old (ρ = 0.77) than children 6-9 years old (ρ = 0.48), and stronger than the correlation between active trachoma and Ct infection (0-5y ρ = 0.56; 6-9y ρ = 0.40). Seroprevalence was the strongest concurrent predictor of infection prevalence at month 36 among children 0-5 years old (cross-validated R2 = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58-0.85), though predictive performance declined substantially with increasing temporal lag between predictor and outcome measurements. Geospatial variables, a spatial Gaussian process, and stacked ensemble machine learning did not meaningfully improve predictions. Serological markers among children 0-5 years old may be an objective tool for identifying communities with high levels of ocular Ct infections, but accurate, future prediction in the context of changing transmission remains an open challenge.

Effect of biannual azithromycin distribution on antibody responses to malaria, bacterial, and protozoan pathogens in Niger

The MORDOR trial in Niger, Malawi, and Tanzania found that biannual mass distribution of azithromycin to children younger than 5 years led to a 13.5% reduction in all-cause mortality (NCT02048007). To help elucidate the mechanism for mortality reduction, we report IgG responses to 11 malaria, bacterial, and protozoan pathogens using a multiplex bead assay in pre-specified substudy of 30 communities in the rural Niger placebo-controlled trial over a three-year period (n = 5642 blood specimens, n = 3814 children ages 1–59 months). Mass azithromycin reduces Campylobacter spp. force of infection by 29% (hazard ratio = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.89; P = 0.004) but serological measures show no significant differences between groups for other pathogens against a backdrop of high transmission. Results align with a recent microbiome study in the communities. Given significant sequelae of Campylobacter infection among preschool aged children, our results support an important mechanism through which biannual mass distribution of azithromycin likely reduces mortality in Niger.

In a randomized placebo-controlled trial in rural Niger, biannual azithromycin distribution to children 1-59 months reduced all-cause mortality. Based on serology, Arzika et al. here report a reduction of Campylobacter infection, supporting one mechanism for the intervention’s impact on mortality.

A protocol for a longitudinal, observational cohort study of infection and exposure to zoonotic and vector-borne diseases across a land-use gradient in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo: a socio-ecological systems approach

Introduction. Landscape changes disrupt environmental, social and biological systems, altering pathogen spillover and transmission risks. This study aims to quantify the impact of specific land management practices on spillover and transmission rates of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases within Malaysian Borneo. This protocol describes a cohort study with integrated ecological sampling to assess how deforestation and agricultural practices impact pathogen flow from wildlife and vector populations to human infection and detection by health facilities. This will focus on malaria, dengue and emerging arboviruses (Chikungunya and Zika), vector-borne diseases with varying contributions of simian reservoirs within this setting. Methods. A prospective longitudinal observational cohort study will be established in communities residing or working within the vicinity of the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems (SAFE) Project, a landscape gradient within Malaysian Borneo encompassing different plantation and forest types. The primary outcome of this study will be transmission intensity of selected zoonotic and vector-borne diseases, as quantified by changes in pathogen-specific antibody levels. Exposure will be measured using paired population-based serological surveys conducted at the beginning and end of the two-year cohort study. Secondary outcomes will include the distribution and infection rates of Aedes and Anopheles mosquito vectors, human risk behaviours and clinical cases reported to health facilities. Longitudinal data on human behaviour, contact with wildlife and GPS tracking of mobility patterns will be collected throughout the study period. This will be integrated with entomological surveillance to monitor densities and pathogen infection rates of Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes relative to land cover. Within surrounding health clinics, continuous health facility surveillance will be used to monitor reported infections and febrile illnesses. Models will be developed to assess spillover and transmission rates relative to specific land management practices and evaluate abilities of surveillance systems to capture these risks.

Diphtheria and tetanus seroepidemiology among children in Ukraine, 2017

BACKGROUND

The drastic decline of Ukraine's immunization coverage since 2009 led to concerns about potential resurgence diphtheria and tetanus, along with other vaccine-preventable diseases.

METHODS

To assess population immunity against diphtheria and tetanus, we tested specimens from the serosurvey conducted in 2017 among children born in 2006-2015, the birth cohorts targeted by the nationwide outbreak response immunization following a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1 outbreak in Zakarpattya province in 2015. We surveyed four regions of Ukraine, using cluster sampling in Zakarpattya, Sumy, and Odessa provinces and simple random sampling in Kyiv City. We tested serum specimens for IgG antibodies against diphtheria and tetanus, using microbead assays (MBA). We estimated seroprevalence and calculated 95% confidence intervals. We also obtained information on the immunization status of surveyed children.

RESULTS

Seroprevalence of ≥0.1 IU/mL diphtheria antibodies was <80% in all survey sites (50.0%-79.2%). Seroprevalence of ≥0.1 IU/mL tetanus antibodies was ≥80% in Sumy, Kyiv City, and Odessa (80.2%-89.1%) and 61.6% in Zakarpattya. Across the sites, the proportion of children vaccinated age-appropriately with diphtheria-tetanus-containing vaccines (DTCV) was 28.5%-57.4% among children born in 2006-2010 and 34.1%-54.3% among children born in 2011-2015. The proportion of recipients of <3 DTCV doses increased from 7.1%-16.7% among children born in 2006-2010 to 19.8%-38.6% among children born in 2011-2015, as did the proportion of recipients of zero DTCV doses (2.6%-8.8% versus 8.0%-14.0%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Protection against diphtheria among children born in 2006-2015 was suboptimal (<80%), particularly in Zakarpattya. Protection against tetanus was adequate (≥80%) except in Zakarpattya. Diphtheria-tetanus immunization status was suboptimal across all sites. Catch-up vaccination of unvaccinated/under-vaccinated children and other efforts to increase immunization coverage would close these immunity gaps and prevent the resurgence of diphtheria and tetanus in Ukraine, particularly in Zakarpattya.

Spatial and Temporal Circulation of Babesia caballi and Theileria equi in France Based on Seven Years of Serological Data

Caused by two blood parasites, Babesia caballi and Theileria equi, equine piroplasmosis is a tick-borne disease that poses major health and economic issues for the equine industry. Our objective was to gain insight into the spatio-temporal variations of parasite circulation in France, where the disease is known to be enzootic, but has been the subject of few studies. Seroprevalence was assessed for each parasite thanks to 16,127 equine sera obtained between 1997 and 2003 from all over France and analysed through complement fixation tests. Results indicated that 13.2% (5-27% depending on the region) of horses were seropositive for T. equi and 9.5% (3-25%) for B. caballi. Regardless of the year, horses from the southern regions of France were the most affected by B. caballi or T. equi infection, while the proportion of horses having antibodies against T. equi increased over time. These results highlight the heterogeneity of the circulation of both piroplasms, which may be linked with ecological diversity and vector distribution. Our data provide baseline information regarding the sero-epidemiology of B. caballi and T. equi infection in horses in France, making it now possible to select regions for future studies on risk factors, and design and implement effective targeted measures against equine piroplasms.

Serological evaluation of the effectiveness of reactive focal mass drug administration and reactive vector control to reduce malaria transmission in Zambezi Region, Namibia: Results from a secondary analysis of a cluster randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Due to challenges in measuring changes in malaria at low transmission, serology is increasingly being used to complement clinical and parasitological surveillance. Longitudinal studies have shown that serological markers, such as Etramp5.Ag1, can reflect spatio-temporal differences in malaria transmission. However, these markers have yet to be used as endpoints in intervention trials.

METHODS

Based on data from a 2017 cluster randomised trial conducted in Zambezi Region, Namibia, evaluating the effectiveness of reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) and reactive vector control (RAVC), this study conducted a secondary analysis comparing antibody responses between intervention arms as trial endpoints. Antibody responses were measured on a multiplex immunoassay, using a panel of eight serological markers of Plasmodium falciparum infection - Etramp5.Ag1, GEXP18, HSP40.Ag1, Rh2.2030, EBA175, PfMSP119, PfAMA1, and PfGLURP.R2.

FINDINGS

Reductions in sero-prevalence to antigens Etramp.Ag1, PfMSP119, Rh2.2030, and PfAMA1 were observed in study arms combining rfMDA and RAVC, but only effects for Etramp5.Ag1 were statistically significant. Etramp5.Ag1 sero-prevalence was significantly lower in all intervention arms. Compared to the reference arms, adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) for Etramp5.Ag1 was 0.78 (95%CI 0.65 - 0.91, p = 0.0007) in the rfMDA arms and 0.79 (95%CI 0.67 - 0.92, p = 0.001) in the RAVC arms. For the combined rfMDA plus RAVC intervention, aPR was 0.59 (95%CI 0.46 - 0.76, p < 0.0001). Significant reductions were also observed based on continuous antibody responses. Sero-prevalence as an endpoint was found to achieve higher study power (99.9% power to detect a 50% reduction in prevalence) compared to quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) prevalence (72.9% power to detect a 50% reduction in prevalence).

INTERPRETATION

While the observed relative reduction in qPCR prevalence in the study was greater than serology, the use of serological endpoints to evaluate trial outcomes measured effect size with improved precision and study power. Serology has clear application in cluster randomised trials, particularly in settings where measuring clinical incidence or infection is less reliable due to seasonal fluctuations, limitations in health care seeking, or incomplete testing and reporting.

FUNDING

This study was supported by Novartis Foundation (A122666), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1160129), and the Horchow Family Fund (5,300,375,400).

Identification and distribution of pathogens coinfecting with Brucella spp., Coxiella burnetii and Rift Valley fever virus in humans, livestock and wildlife

Zoonotic diseases, such as brucellosis, Q fever and Rift Valley fever (RVF) caused by Brucella spp., Coxiella burnetii and RVF virus, respectively, can have devastating effects on human, livestock, and wildlife health and cause economic hardship due to morbidity and mortality in livestock. Coinfection with multiple pathogens can lead to more severe disease outcomes and altered transmission dynamics. These three pathogens can alter host immune responses likely leading to increased morbidity, mortality and pathogen transmission during coinfection. Developing countries, such as those commonly afflicted by outbreaks of brucellosis, Q fever and RVF, have high disease burden and thus common coinfections. A literature survey provided information on case reports and studies investigating coinfections involving the three focal diseases. Fifty five studies were collected demonstrating coinfections of Brucella spp., C. burnetii or RVFV with 50 different pathogens, of which 64% were zoonotic. While the literature search criteria involved ‘coinfection’, only 24/55 studies showed coinfections with direct pathogen detection methods (microbiology, PCR and antigen test), while the rest only reported detection of antibodies against multiple pathogens, which only indicate a history of co‐exposure, not concurrent infection. These studies lack the ability to test whether coinfection leads to changes in morbidity, mortality or transmission dynamics. We describe considerations and methods for identifying ongoing coinfections to address this critical blind spot in disease risk management.

Organism-specific training improves performance of linear B-cell epitope prediction

MOTIVATION

In silico identification of linear B-cell epitopes represents an important step in the development of diagnostic tests and vaccine candidates, by providing potential high-probability targets for experimental investigation. Current predictive tools were developed under a generalist approach, training models with heterogeneous datasets to develop predictors that can be deployed for a wide variety of pathogens. However, continuous advances in processing power and the increasing amount of epitope data for a broad range of pathogens indicate that training organism or taxon-specific models may become a feasible alternative, with unexplored potential gains in predictive performance.

RESULTS

This article shows how organism-specific training of epitope prediction models can yield substantial performance gains across several quality metrics when compared to models trained with heterogeneous and hybrid data, and with a variety of widely used predictors from the literature. These results suggest a promising alternative for the development of custom-tailored predictive models with high predictive power, which can be easily implemented and deployed for the investigation of specific pathogens.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The data underlying this article, as well as the full reproducibility scripts, are available at https://github.com/fcampelo/OrgSpec-paper. The R package that implements the organism-specific pipeline functions is available at https://github.com/fcampelo/epitopes.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary materials are available at Bioinformatics online.

Assessment and utility of 2 Chlamydia trachomatis Pgp3 serological assays for seroprevalence studies among women in the United States

Two plasmid gene protein (Pgp3)-based serological assays, the Pgp3-ELISA and multiplex bead assay (Pgp3-MBA), were compared and used to estimate seropositivity of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) among females 14 to 39 years old participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2013-2016. Of the 2,201 specimens tested, 502 (29.5%, 95% CI 27.6-31.5) were positive using Pgp3-ELISA and 624 (28.4%, 95% CI 26.5-30.3) were positive using Pgp3-MBA. The overall agreement between the assays was 87.7%. Corresponding nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) results were available for 1,725 specimens (from women 18-39 years old); of these, 42 (2.4%, 95% CI 1.8-3.3) were CT NAAT-positive. Most of the CT NAAT-positive specimens had corresponding positive serological assay results; 33 (78.6%, 95% CI 62.8-89.2) were Pgp3-ELISA-positive and 36 (85.7%, 95% CI 70.8-94.1) were Pgp3-MBA-positive. Although Pgp3-ELISA and Pgp3-MBA demonstrated equivalent performance in this study, an advantage of the Pgp3-MBA over Pgp3-ELISA is that it is well suited for high sample throughput applications.

A multiplex assay for the detection of antibodies to relevant swine pathogens in serum

Livestock industry supports the livelihood of around 1.3 billion people in the world, with swine industry contributing with 30% of total livestock production worldwide. To maintain and guarantee this production, a pivotal point according to the OIE is addressing potential biohazards. To control them, permanent sero-surveillance is crucial to achieve more focused veterinary public health intervention and prevention strategies, to break the chains of transmission, and to enable fast responses against outbreaks. Within this context, multiplex assays are powerful tools with the potential to simplify surveillance programs, since they reduce time, labour, and variability within analysis. In the present work, we developed a multiplex bead-based assay for the detection of specific antibodies to six relevant pathogens affecting swine: ASFV, CSFV, PRRSV, SIV, TB and HEV. The most immunogenic target antigen of each pathogen was selected as the target protein to coat different microsphere regions in order to develop this multiplex assay. A total of 1544 serum samples from experimental infections as well as field samples were included in the analysis. The 6-plex assay exhibited credible diagnostic parameters with sensitivities ranging from 87.0% to 97.5% and specificities ranging from 87.9% to 100.0%, demonstrating it to be a potential high throughput tool for surveillance of infectious diseases in swine.

Determining seropositivity-A review of approaches to define population seroprevalence when using multiplex bead assays to assess burden of tropical diseases

Background

Serological surveys with multiplex bead assays can be used to assess seroprevalence to multiple pathogens simultaneously. However, multiple methods have been used to generate cut-off values for seropositivity and these may lead to inconsistent interpretation of results. A literature review was conducted to describe the methods used to determine cut-off values for data generated by multiplex bead assays.

Methodology/Principal findings

A search was conducted in PubMed that included articles published from January 2010 to January 2020, and 308 relevant articles were identified that included the terms “serology”, “cut-offs”, and “multiplex bead assays”. After application of exclusion of articles not relevant to neglected tropical diseases (NTD), vaccine preventable diseases (VPD), or malaria, 55 articles were examined based on their relevance to NTD or VPD. The most frequently applied approaches to determine seropositivity included the use of presumed unexposed populations, mixture models, receiver operating curves (ROC), and international standards. Other methods included the use of quantiles, pre-exposed endemic cohorts, and visual inflection points.

Conclusions/Significance

For disease control programmes, seropositivity is a practical and easily interpretable health metric but determining appropriate cut-offs for positivity can be challenging. Considerations for optimal cut-off approaches should include factors such as methods recommended by previous research, transmission dynamics, and the immunological backgrounds of the population. In the absence of international standards for estimating seropositivity in a population, the use of consistent methods that align with individual disease epidemiological data will improve comparability between settings and enable the assessment of changes over time.

Serological surveys can provide information regarding population-level disease exposure by assessing immune responses created during infection. Multiplex bead assays (MBAs) allow for an integrated serological platform to monitor antibody responses to multiple pathogens concurrently. As programs adopt integrated disease control strategies, MBAs are especially advantageous since many of these diseases may be present in the same population and antibodies against all pathogens of interest can be detected simultaneously from a single blood sample. Interpreting serological data in a programmatic context typically involves classifying individuals as seronegative or seropositive using a ‘cut-off’, whereby anyone with a response above the defined threshold is considered to be seropositive. Although studies increasingly test blood samples with MBAs, published studies have applied different methods of determining seropositivity cut-offs, making results difficult to compare across settings and over time. The lack of harmonized methods for defining seropositivity is due to the absence of international standards, pathogen biology, or assay-specific methods that may impact resulting data. This review highlights the need for a standardized approach for which cut-off methods to use per pathogen when applied to integrated disease surveillance using platforms such as MBAs.

Diagnostics and the neglected tropical diseases roadmap: setting the agenda for 2030

Accurate and reliable diagnostic tools are an essential requirement for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) programmes. However, the NTD community has historically underinvested in the development and improvement of diagnostic tools, potentially undermining the successes achieved over the last 2 decades. Recognizing this, the WHO, in its newly released draft roadmap for NTD 2021-2030, has identified diagnostics as one of four priority areas requiring concerted action to reach the 2030 targets. As a result, WHO established a Diagnostics Technical Advisory Group (DTAG) to serve as the collaborative mechanism to drive progress in this area. Here, the purpose and role of the DTAG are described in the context of the challenges facing NTD programmes.