Within-episode repeat antibiotic prescriptions in patients with respiratory tract infections: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial stewardship interventions mainly focus on initial antibiotic prescriptions, with few considering within-episode repeat prescriptions. We aimed to describe the magnitude, type and determinants of within-episode repeat antibiotic prescriptions in patients presenting to primary care with respiratory tract infections (RTIs).

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study among 530 sampled English general practices within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). All individuals with a primary care RTI consultation for which an antibiotic was prescribed between March 2018 and February 2022. Main outcome measurement was repeat antibiotic prescriptions within 28 days of a RTI visit stratified by age (children vs. adults) and RTI type (lower vs. upper RTI). Multivariable logistic regression and principal components analyses were used to identify risk factors and patient clusters at risk for within-episode repeat prescriptions.

FINDINGS

905,964 RTI episodes with at least one antibiotic prescription were identified. In adults, 19.9% (95% CI 19.3-20.5%) had at least one within-episode repeat prescription for a lower RTI, compared to 10.5% (95% CI 10.3-10.8%) for an upper RTI. In children, this was around 10% irrespective of RTI type. The majority of repeat prescriptions occurred a median of 10 days after the initial prescription and was the same antibiotic class in 48.3% of cases. Frequent RTI related GP visits and prior within-RTI-episode repeat antibiotic prescriptions were main factors associated with repeat prescriptions in both adults and children irrespective of RTI type. Young (<2 years) and older (65+) age were associated with repeat prescriptions. Among those aged 2-64 years, allergic rhinitis, COPD and oral corticosteroids were associated with repeat prescriptions.

INTERPRETATIONS

Repeat within-episode antibiotic use accounts for a significant proportion of all antibiotics prescribed for RTIs, with same class antibiotics unlikely to confer clinical benefit and is therefore a prime target for future antimicrobial stewardship interventions.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

NSAID prescribing and adverse outcomes in common infections: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Infections in primary care are often treated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). This study evaluates whether NSAID prescribing is associated with adverse outcomes for respiratory (RTIs) or urinary track (UTI) infections.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether there is an association between NSAID prescribing and the rate of adverse outcomes for infections for individual consulting in primary care.

DESIGN

Cohort study of electronic health records.

SETTING

87 general practices in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD.

PARTICIPANTS

142 925 patients consulting with RTI or UTI.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Repeat consultations, hospitalisation or death within 30 days of the initial consultation for RTI or UTI. Poisson models estimated the associations between NSAID exposure and outcome. Rate ratios were adjusted for gender, age, ethnicity, deprivation, antibiotic use, seasonal influenza vaccination status, comorbidities and general practice. Since prescribing variations by practice are not explained by case mix-hence, less impacted by confounding by indication-both individual-level and practice-level analyses are included.

RESULTS

There was an increase in hospital admission/death for acute NSAID prescriptions (RR 2.73, 95% CI 2.10 to 3.56) and repeated NSAID prescriptions (6.47, 4.46-9.39) in RTI patients, and for acute NSAID prescriptions for UTI (RR 3.03; 1.92 to 4.76). Practice-level analysis, controlling for practice population characteristics, found that for each percentage point increase in NSAID prescription, the percentages of hospital admission/death within 30 days increased by 0.32 percentage points (95% CI 0.16 to 0.47).

CONCLUSIONS

In this non-randomised study, prescription of NSAIDs at consultations for RTI or UTIs in primary care is infrequent but may be associated with increased risk of hospital admission. This supports other observational and limited trial data that NSAID prescribing might be associated with worse outcomes following acute infection and should be prescribed with caution.

Treat-to-target urate-lowering therapy and hospitalizations for gout: results from a nationwide cohort study in England

OBJECTIVE

To investigate associations between treat-to-target urate-lowering therapy (ULT) and hospitalizations for gout.

METHODS

Using linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink and NHS Digital Hospital Episode Statistics data, we described the incidence and timing of hospitalizations for flares in people with index gout diagnoses in England from 2004-2020. Using Cox proportional hazards and propensity models, we investigated associations between ULT initiation, serum urate target attainment, colchicine prophylaxis, and the risk of hospitalizations for gout.

RESULTS

Of 292 270 people with incident gout, 7719 (2.64%) had one or more hospitalizations for gout, with an incidence rate of 4.64 hospitalizations per 1000 person-years (95% CI 4.54, 4.73). There was an associated increased risk of hospitalizations within the first 6 months after ULT initiation, when compared with people who did not initiate ULT [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) 4.54; 95% CI 3.70, 5.58; P < 0.001]. Hospitalizations did not differ significantly between people prescribed vs not prescribed colchicine prophylaxis in fully adjusted models. From 12 months after initiation, ULT associated with a reduced risk of hospitalizations (aHR 0.77; 95% CI 0.71, 0.83; P < 0.001). In ULT initiators, attainment of a serum urate <360 micromol/l within 12 months of initiation associated with a reduced risk of hospitalizations (aHR 0.57; 95% CI 0.49, 0.67; P < 0.001) when compared with people initiating ULT but not attaining this target.

CONCLUSION

ULT associates with an increased risk of hospitalizations within the first 6 months of initiation but reduces hospitalizations in the long term, particularly when serum urate targets are achieved.

Multiple morbidity across the lifespan in people with Down syndrome or intellectual disabilities: a population-based cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

The Down syndrome phenotype is well established, but our understanding of its morbidity patterns is limited. We comprehensively estimated the risk of multiple morbidity across the lifespan in people with Down syndrome compared with the general population and controls with other forms of intellectual disability.

METHODS

In this matched population-based cohort-study design, we used electronic health-record data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CRPD) from Jan 1, 1990, to June 29, 2020. We aimed to explore the pattern of morbidities throughout the lifespan of people with Down syndrome compared with people with other intellectual disabilities and the general population, to identify syndrome-specific health conditions and their age-related incidence. We estimated incidence rates per 1000 person-years and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for 32 common morbidities. Hierarchical clustering was used to identify groups of associated conditions using prevalence data.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 1990, and June 29, 2020, a total of 10 204 people with Down syndrome, 39 814 controls, and 69 150 people with intellectual disabilities were included. Compared with controls, people with Down syndrome had increased risk of dementia (IRR 94·7, 95% CI 69·9-128·4), hypothyroidism (IRR 10·6, 9·6-11·8), epilepsy (IRR 9·7, 8·5-10·9), and haematological malignancy (IRR 4·7, 3·4-6·3), whereas asthma (IRR 0·88, 0·79-0·98), cancer (solid tumour IRR 0·75, 0·62-0·89), ischaemic heart disease (IRR 0·65, 0·51-0·85), and particularly hypertension (IRR 0·26, 0·22-0·32) were less frequent in people with Down syndrome than in controls. Compared to people with intellectual disabilities, risk of dementia (IRR 16·60, 14·23-19·37), hypothyroidism (IRR 7·22, 6·62-7·88), obstructive sleep apnoea (IRR 4·45, 3·72-5·31), and haematological malignancy (IRR 3·44, 2·58-4·59) were higher in people with Down syndrome, with reduced rates for a third of conditions, including new onset of dental inflammation (IRR 0·88, 0·78-0·99), asthma (IRR 0·82, 0·73-0·91), cancer (solid tumour IRR 0·78, 0·65-0·93), sleep disorder (IRR 0·74, 0·68-0·80), hypercholesterolaemia (IRR 0·69, 0·60-0·80), diabetes (IRR 0·59, 0·52-0·66), mood disorder (IRR 0·55, 0·50-0·60), glaucoma (IRR 0·47, 0·29-0·78), and anxiety disorder (IRR 0·43, 0·38-0·48). Morbidities in Down syndrome could be categorised on age-related incidence trajectories, and their prevalence clustered into typical syndromic conditions, cardiovascular diseases, autoimmune disorders, and mental health conditions.

INTERPRETATION

Multiple morbidity in Down syndrome shows distinct patterns of age-related incidence trajectories and clustering that differ from those found in the general population and in people with other intellectual disabilities, with implications for provision and timing of health-care screening, prevention, and treatment for people with Down syndrome.

FUNDING

The European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, the Jérôme Lejeune Foundation, the Alzheimer's Society, the Medical Research Council, the Academy of Medical Sciences, the Wellcome Trust, and William Harvey Research Limited.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

Diabetes and Obesity in Down Syndrome Across the Lifespan: A Retrospective Cohort Study Using U.K. Electronic Health Records

OBJECTIVE

Down syndrome (DS) is the most common form of chromosomal trisomy. Genetic factors in DS may increase the risk for diabetes. This study aimed to determine whether DS is associated with an increased incidence of diabetes and the relationship with obesity across the life span compared with control patients.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This matched population-based cohort study analyzed UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink data from 1990 to 2020.

RESULTS

A total of 9,917 patients with DS and 38,266 control patients were analyzed. Diabetes rates were higher in patients with DS (incidence rate ratio 3.67; 95% CI 2.43-5.55; P < 0.0001) and peaked at a younger age (median age at diagnosis 38 [interquartile range 28-49] years vs. 53 [43-61] years in control patients). Incidence rates (per 1,000 person-years) for type 1 diabetes mellitus were 0.44 (95% CI 0.31-0.61) in patients with DS vs. 0.13 (0.09-0.17) in control patients. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) rates were higher in patients with DS versus control patients in age-groups from 5 years up to 34 years. In patients with DS, peak mean BMI was higher and at a younger age (males 31.2 kg/m2 at age 31 years; females 32.1 kg/m2 at 43 years) versus control patients (males 29.5 kg/m2 at 54 years; females 29.2 kg/m2 at 51 years). Obesity was associated with an increased incidence of T2DM.

CONCLUSIONS

At younger ages, the incidence of diabetes in patients with DS is up to four times that of control patients. Peak mean BMI is higher and established earlier in DS, contributing to T2DM risk. Further investigation into the relationship between obesity and diabetes in DS is required to inform treatment and prevention measures.

Body mass index trajectories and mortality in community-dwelling older adults: population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Both low and high body mass index (BMI) have been associated with greater mortality in older adults. This study aimed to evaluate the trajectory of BMI in the final years of life.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study was conducted including community-dwelling adults in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing between 1998 and 2012. BMI was evaluated in relation to age and years before death. Number of long-term conditions, cigarette smoking and socioeconomic position were evaluated as effect modifiers.

RESULTS

Data were analysed for 16 924 participants with 31 857 BMI records; mean age at study starts, 61.6 (SD 10.9) years; mean BMI, 27.5 (4.7) Kg/m². There were 3686 participants (4794 BMI records) who died and 13 238 participants (27 063 BMI records) who were alive at last follow-up. Mean BMI increased with age to 60-69 years but then declined, but the age-related decline was more rapid in decedents. From 4 to 7 years before death or end of study, adjusted mean BMI was 0.87 (95% CI 0.50 to 1.24) Kg/m² lower for male decedents than survivors and 1.02 (0.56 to 1.47) lower in women; and from 3 to 0 years before death, BMI was 1.39 (0.98 to 1.80) Kg/m² lower in male decedents and 2.12 (1.60 to 2.64) lower in female decedents. Multiple long-term conditions and lower socioeconomic position were associated with higher peak BMI and greater BMI decline; current smoking was associated with lower BMI and greater BMI decline.

CONCLUSIONS

In community-dwelling older adults, mean BMI enters an accelerating decline from up to 8 years before death. Multiple long-term conditions, smoking and lower socioeconomic position are associated with BMI decline.

Can primary care research be conducted more efficiently using routinely reported practice-level data: a cluster randomised controlled trial conducted in England?

OBJECTIVES

Conducting randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in primary care is challenging; recruiting patients during time-limited or remote consultations can increase selection bias and physical access to patients' notes is costly and time-consuming. We investigated barriers and facilitators to running a more efficient design.

DESIGN

An RCT aiming to reduce antibiotic prescribing among children presenting with acute cough and a respiratory tract infection (RTI) with a clinician-focused intervention, embedded at the practice level. By using aggregate level, routinely collected data for the coprimary outcomes, we removed the need to recruit individual participants.

SETTING

Primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Baseline data from general practitioner practices and interviews with individuals from Clinical Research Networks (CRNs) in England who helped recruit practices and Clinical Commission Groups (CCGs) who collected outcome data.

INTERVENTION

The intervention included: (1) explicit elicitation of parental concerns, (2) a prognostic algorithm to identify children at low risk of hospitalisation and (3) provision of a printout for carers including safety-netting advice.

COPRIMARY OUTCOMES

For 0-9 years old-(1) Dispensing data for amoxicillin and macrolide antibiotics and (2) hospital admission rate for RTI.

RESULTS

We recruited 294 of the intended 310 practices (95%) representing 336 496 registered 0-9 years old (5% of all 0-9 years old children). Included practices were slightly larger, had slightly lower baseline prescribing rates and were located in more deprived areas reflecting the national distribution. Engagement with CCGs and their understanding of their role in this research was variable. Engagement with CRNs and installation of the intervention was straight-forward although the impact of updates to practice IT systems and lack of familiarity required extended support in some practices. Data on the coprimary outcomes were almost 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

The infrastructure for trials at the practice level using routinely collected data for primary outcomes is viable in England and should be promoted for primary care research where appropriate.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN11405239.

Cardiometabolic outcomes up to 12 months after COVID-19 infection. A matched cohort study in the UK

BACKGROUND

Acute Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been associated with new-onset cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM), but it is not known whether COVID-19 has long-term impacts on cardiometabolic outcomes. This study aimed to determine whether the incidence of new DM and CVDs are increased over 12 months after COVID-19 compared with matched controls.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a cohort study from 2020 to 2021 analysing electronic records for 1,356 United Kingdom family practices with a population of 13.4 million. Participants were 428,650 COVID-19 patients without DM or CVD who were individually matched with 428,650 control patients on age, sex, and family practice and followed up to January 2022. Outcomes were incidence of DM and CVD. A difference-in-difference analysis estimated the net effect of COVID-19 allowing for baseline differences, age, ethnicity, smoking, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, Charlson score, index month, and matched set. Follow-up time was divided into 4 weeks from index date ("acute COVID-19"), 5 to 12 weeks from index date ("post-acute COVID-19"), and 13 to 52 weeks from index date ("long COVID-19"). Net incidence of DM increased in the first 4 weeks after COVID-19 (adjusted rate ratio, RR 1.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51 to 2.19) and remained elevated from 5 to 12 weeks (RR 1.27, 1.11 to 1.46) but not from 13 to 52 weeks overall (1.07, 0.99 to 1.16). Acute COVID-19 was associated with net increased CVD incidence (5.82, 4.82 to 7.03) including pulmonary embolism (RR 11.51, 7.07 to 18.73), atrial arrythmias (6.44, 4.17 to 9.96), and venous thromboses (5.43, 3.27 to 9.01). CVD incidence declined from 5 to 12 weeks (RR 1.49, 1.28 to 1.73) and showed a net decrease from 13 to 52 weeks (0.80, 0.73 to 0.88). The analyses were based on health records data and participants' exposure and outcome status might have been misclassified.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that CVD was increased early after COVID-19 mainly from pulmonary embolism, atrial arrhythmias, and venous thromboses. DM incidence remained elevated for at least 12 weeks following COVID-19 before declining. People without preexisting CVD or DM who suffer from COVID-19 do not appear to have a long-term increase in incidence of these conditions.

Susceptibility to COVID-19 Diagnosis in People with Down Syndrome Compared to the General Population: Matched-Cohort Study Using Primary Care Electronic Records in the UK

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, people with Down syndrome (DS) have experienced a more severe disease course and higher mortality rates than the general population. It is not yet known whether people with DS are more susceptible to being diagnosed with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE

To explore whether DS is associated with increased susceptibility to COVID-19.

DESIGN

Matched-cohort study design using anonymised primary care electronic health records from the May 2021 release of Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum.

SETTING

Electronic health records from approximately 1400 general practices (GPs) in England.

PARTICIPANTS

8854 people with DS and 34,724 controls matched for age, gender and GP who were registered on or after the 29th January 2020.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was COVID-19 diagnosis between January 2020 and May 2021. Conditional logistic regression models were fitted to estimate associations between DS and COVID-19 diagnosis, adjusting for comorbidities.

RESULTS

Compared to controls, people with DS were more likely to be diagnosed with COVID-19 (7.4% vs 5.6%, p ≤ 0.001, odds ratio (OR) = 1.35; 95% CI = 1.23-1.48). There was a significant interaction between people with DS and a chronic respiratory disease diagnosis excluding asthma and increased odds of a COVID-19 diagnosis (OR = 1.71; 95% CI = 1.20-2.43), whilst adjusting for a number of comorbidities.

CONCLUSION

Individuals with DS are at increased risk for contracting COVID-19. Those with underlying lung conditions are particularly vulnerable during viral pandemics and should be prioritised for vaccinations.

Management of gout following 2016/2017 European (EULAR) and British (BSR) guidelines: An interrupted time-series analysis in the United Kingdom

Background

Following studies reporting sub-optimal gout management, European (EULAR) and British (BSR) guidelines were updated to encourage the prescription of urate-lowering therapy (ULT) with a treat-to-target approach. We investigated whether ULT initiation and urate target attainment has improved following publication of these guidelines, and assessed predictors of these outcomes.

Methods

We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink to assess attainment of the following outcomes in people (n = 129,972) with index gout diagnoses in the UK from 2004-2020: i) initiation of ULT; ii) serum urate ≤360 µmol/L and ≤300 µmol/L; iii) treat-to-target urate monitoring. Interrupted time-series analyses were used to compare trends in outcomes before and after updated EULAR and BSR management guidelines, published in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Predictors of ULT initiation and urate target attainment were modelled using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards.

Findings

37,529 (28.9%) of 129,972 people with newly-diagnosed gout had ULT initiated within 12 months. ULT initiation improved modestly over the study period, from 26.8% for those diagnosed in 2004 to 36.6% in 2019 and 34.7% in 2020. Of people diagnosed in 2020 with a serum urate performed within 12 months, 17.1% attained a urate ≤300 µmol/L, while 36.0% attained a urate ≤360 µmol/L. 18.9% received treat-to-target urate monitoring. No significant improvements in ULT initiation or urate target attainment were observed after updated BSR or EULAR management guidance, relative to before. Comorbidities, including chronic kidney disease (CKD), heart failure and obesity, and diuretic use associated with increased odds of ULT initiation but decreased odds of attaining urate targets within 12 months: CKD (adjusted OR 1.61 for ULT initiation, 95% CI 1.55 to 1.67; adjusted OR 0.51 for urate ≤300 µmol/L, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.55; both p < 0.001); heart failure (adjusted OR 1.56 for ULT initiation, 95% CI 1.48 to 1.64; adjusted OR 0.85 for urate ≤300 µmol/L, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.95; both p < 0.001); obesity (adjusted OR 1.32 for ULT initiation, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.36; adjusted OR 0.61 for urate ≤300 µmol/L, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.65; both p < 0.001); and diuretic use (adjusted OR 1.49 for ULT initiation, 95% CI 1.44 to 1.55; adjusted OR 0.61 for urate ≤300 µmol/L, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.66; both p < 0.001).

Interpretation

Initiation of ULT and attainment of urate targets remain poor for people diagnosed with gout in the UK, despite updated management guidelines. If the evidence-practice gap in gout management is to be bridged, strategies to implement best practice care are needed.

Funding

National Institute for Health Research.

Mortality of care home residents and community-dwelling controls during the covid-19 pandemic in 2020: matched cohort study

Objective

This study aimed to estimate and compare mortality of care home residents, and matched community-dwelling controls, during the COVID-19 pandemic from primary care electronic health records in England.

Design

Matched cohort study.

Setting and Participants

Family practices in England in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. There were 83,627 care home residents in 2020, with 26,923 deaths; 80,730 (97%) were matched on age, sex, and family practice with 300,445 community-dwelling adults.

Methods

All-cause mortality was evaluated and adjusted rate ratios by negative binomial regression were adjusted for age, sex, number of long-term conditions, frailty category, region, calendar month or week, and clustering by family practice.

Results

Underlying mortality of care home residents was higher than community controls (adjusted rate ratio 5.59, 95% confidence interval 5.23‒5.99, P < .001). During April 2020, there was a net increase in mortality of care home residents over that of controls. The mortality rate of care home residents was 27.2 deaths per 1000 patients per week, compared with 2.31 per 1000 for controls. Excess deaths for care home residents, above that predicted from pre-pandemic years, peaked between April 13 and 19 (men, 27.7, 95% confidence interval 25.1‒30.3; women, 17.4, 15.9‒18.8 per 1000 per week). Compared with care home residents, long-term conditions and frailty were differentially associated with greater mortality in community-dwelling controls.

Conclusions and Implications

Individual-patient data from primary care electronic health records may be used to estimate mortality in care home residents. Mortality is substantially higher than for community-dwelling comparators and showed a disproportionate increase in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Care home residents require particular protection during periods of high infectious disease transmission.

Antihypertensive medications and COVID-19 diagnosis and mortality: Population-based case-control analysis in the United Kingdom

AIMS

Antihypertensive drugs have been implicated in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) susceptibility and severity, but estimated associations may be susceptible to bias. We aimed to evaluate antihypertensive medications and COVID-19 diagnosis and mortality, accounting for healthcare-seeking behaviour.

METHODS

A population-based case-control study was conducted including 16 866 COVID-19 cases and 70 137 matched controls from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We evaluated all-cause mortality among COVID-19 cases. Exposures were angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), beta-blockers (B), calcium-channel blockers (C), thiazide diuretics (D) and other antihypertensive drugs (O). Analyses were adjusted for covariates and consultation frequency.

RESULTS

ACEIs were associated with lower odds of COVID-19 diagnosis (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.88) as were ARBs (AOR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80-0.95) with little attenuation from adjustment for consultation frequency. C and D were also associated with lower odds of COVID-19 diagnosis. Increased odds of COVID-19 for B (AOR 1.19, 95% CI 1.12-1.26) were attenuated after adjustment for consultation frequency (AOR 1.01, 95% CI 0.95-1.08). Patients treated with ACEIs or ARBs had similar odds of mortality (AOR 1.00, 95% CI 0.83-1.20) to patients treated with classes B, C, D or O or patients receiving no antihypertensive therapy (AOR 0.99, 95% CI 0.83-1.18).

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence that antihypertensive therapy is associated with increased risk of COVID-19 diagnosis or mortality; most classes of antihypertensive therapy showed negative associations with COVID-19 diagnosis.

Epilepsy and mortality: a retrospective cohort analysis with a nested case-control study identifying causes and risk factors from primary care and linkage-derived data

OBJECTIVES

People with epilepsy (PWE) have a higher mortality rate than the general population. Epilepsy-related deaths have increased despite all-cause mortality decreasing in the general population pre-COVID-19. We hypothesised that clinical and lifestyle factors may identify people more at risk.

DESIGN

We used a retrospective cohort study to explore cause of death and a nested case-control study to identify risk factors.

SETTING

We explored factors associated with mortality using primary care population data from 1 April 2004 to 31 March 2014. Data were obtained from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink which compiles anonymised patient data from primary care in the UK. Cause of death data was supplemented from the Office of National Statistics when available.

PARTICIPANTS

The analysis included 70 431 PWE, with 11 241 registered deaths.

RESULTS

The number of deaths within the database increased by 69% between the first and last year of the study. Epilepsy was considered as a contributing cause in approximately 45% of deaths of PWE under 35. Factors associated with increased risk of death included attendance at emergency departments and/or emergency admissions (OR 3.48, 95% CI 3.19 to 3.80), antiepileptic drug (AED) polytherapy (2 AEDs: OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.51 to 1.71; 3 AEDs: OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.86 to 2.29; 4+AEDs: OR 2.62, 95% CI 2.23 to 3.08), status epilepticus (OR 2.78, 95% CI 1.64 to 4.71), depression (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.57 to 1.76) and injuries (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.67). No seizures in the prior year (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.65).

CONCLUSION

Our results add to existing evidence that deaths in epilepsy are increasing. Future studies could focus on identifying PWE at high risk and addressing them with clinical interventions or better self-management. Identifying specific risk factors for younger people should be a priority as epilepsy may be a factor in close to half of deaths of PWE under 35 years of age.

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

BACKGROUND

Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.

FINDINGS

The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.

FUNDING

WHO.

Realising the full potential of data-enabled trials in the UK: a call for action

RATIONALE

Clinical trials are the gold standard for testing interventions. COVID-19 has further raised their public profile and emphasised the need to deliver better, faster, more efficient trials for patient benefit. Considerable overlap exists between data required for trials and data already collected routinely in electronic healthcare records (EHRs). Opportunities exist to use these in innovative ways to decrease duplication of effort and speed trial recruitment, conduct and follow-up.

APPROACH

The National Institute of Health Research (NIHR), Health Data Research UK and Clinical Practice Research Datalink co-organised a national workshop to accelerate the agenda for 'data-enabled clinical trials'. Showcasing successful examples and imagining future possibilities, the plenary talks, panel discussions, group discussions and case studies covered: design/feasibility; recruitment; conduct/follow-up; collecting benefits/harms; and analysis/interpretation.

REFLECTION

Some notable studies have successfully accessed and used EHR to identify potential recruits, support randomised trials, deliver interventions and supplement/replace trial-specific follow-up. Some outcome measures are already reliably collected; others, like safety, need detailed work to meet regulatory reporting requirements. There is a clear need for system interoperability and a 'route map' to identify and access the necessary datasets. Researchers running regulatory-facing trials must carefully consider how data quality and integrity would be assessed. An experience-sharing forum could stimulate wider adoption of EHR-based methods in trial design and execution.

DISCUSSION

EHR offer opportunities to better plan clinical trials, assess patients and capture data more efficiently, reducing research waste and increasing focus on each trial's specific challenges. The short-term emphasis should be on facilitating patient recruitment and for postmarketing authorisation trials where research-relevant outcome measures are readily collectable. Sharing of case studies is encouraged. The workshop directly informed NIHR's funding call for ambitious data-enabled trials at scale. There is the opportunity for the UK to build upon existing data science capabilities to identify, recruit and monitor patients in trials at scale.

Safety of reducing antibiotic prescribing in primary care: a mixed-methods study

Background

The threat of antimicrobial resistance has led to intensified efforts to reduce antibiotic utilisation, but serious bacterial infections are increasing in frequency.

Objectives

To estimate the risks of serious bacterial infections in association with lower antibiotic prescribing and understand stakeholder views with respect to safe antibiotic reduction.

Design

Mixed-methods research was undertaken, including a qualitative interview study of patient and prescriber views that informed a cohort study and a decision-analytic model, using primary care electronic health records. These three work packages were used to design an application (app) for primary care prescribers.

Data sources

The Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

Setting

This took place in UK general practices.

Participants

A total of 706 general practices with 66.2 million person-years of follow-up from 2002 to 2017 and antibiotic utilisation evaluated for 671,830 registered patients. The qualitative study included 31 patients and 30 health-care professionals from primary care.

Main outcome measures

Sepsis and localised bacterial infections.

Results

Patients were concerned about antimicrobial resistance and the side effects, as well as the benefits, of antibiotic treatment. Prescribers viewed the onset of sepsis as the most concerning potential outcome of reduced antibiotic prescribing. More than 40% of antibiotic prescriptions in primary care had no coded indication recorded across both Vision® and EMIS® practice systems. Antibiotic prescribing rates varied widely between general practices, but there was no evidence that serious bacterial infections were less frequent at higher prescribing practices (adjusted rate ratio for 20% increase in prescribing 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.06; p = 0.074). The probability of sepsis was lower if an antibiotic was prescribed at an infection consultation, and the number of antibiotic prescriptions required to prevent one episode of sepsis (i.e. the number needed to treat) decreased with age. For those aged 0–4 years, the number needed to treat was 29,773 (95% uncertainty interval 18,458 to 71,091) in boys and 27,014 (95% uncertainty interval 16,739 to 65,709) in girls. For those aged > 85 years, the number needed to treat was 262 (95% uncertainty interval 236 to 293) in men and 385 (95% uncertainty interval 352 to 421) in women. Frailty was associated with a greater risk of sepsis and a smaller number needed to treat. For severely frail patients aged 55–64 years, the number needed to treat was 247 (95% uncertainty interval 156 to 459) for men and 343 (95% uncertainty interval 234 to 556) for women. At all ages, the probability of sepsis was greatest for urinary tract infection, followed by skin infection and respiratory tract infection. The numbers needed to treat were generally smaller for the period 2014–17, when sepsis was diagnosed more frequently. The results are available using an app that we developed to provide primary care prescribers with stratified risk estimates during infection consultations.

Limitations

Analyses were based on non-randomised comparisons. Infection episodes and antibiotic prescribing are poorly documented in primary care.

Conclusions

Antibiotic treatment is generally associated with lower risks, but the most serious bacterial infections remain infrequent even without antibiotic treatment. This research identifies risk strata in which antibiotic prescribing can be more safely reduced.

Future work

The software developed from this research may be further developed and investigated for antimicrobial stewardship effect.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 9, No. 9. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Antimicrobial stewardship in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based cohort study and interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered the context for antimicrobial stewardship in primary care.

AIM

To assess the effect of the pandemic on antibiotic prescribing, accounting for changes in consultations for respiratory and urinary tract infections (RTIs/UTIs).

DESIGN AND SETTING

Population-based cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD database from January 2017 to September 2020.

METHOD

Interrupted time-series analysis evaluated changes in antibiotic prescribing and RTI/UTI consultations adjusting for age, sex, season, and secular trends. The authors assessed the proportion of COVID-19 episodes associated with antibiotic prescribing.

RESULTS

There were 253 655 registered patients in 2017 and 232 218 in 2020, with 559 461 antibiotic prescriptions, 216 110 RTI consultations, and 36 402 UTI consultations. Compared with prepandemic months, March 2020 was associated with higher antibiotic prescribing (adjusted rate ratio [ARR] 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.11 to 1.16). Antibiotic prescribing fell below predicted rates between April and August 2020, reaching a minimum in May (ARR 0.73; 95% CI = 0.71 to 0.75). Pandemic months were associated with lower rates of RTI/UTI consultations, particularly in April for RTIs (ARR 0.23; 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.25). There were small reductions in the proportion of RTI consultations with antibiotic prescribed and no reduction for UTIs. Among 25 889 COVID-19 patients, 2942 (11%) had antibiotics within a COVID-19 episode.

CONCLUSION

Pandemic months were initially associated with increased antibiotic prescribing, which then fell below expected levels during the national lockdown. Findings are reassuring that antibiotic stewardship priorities have not been neglected because of COVID-19. Research is required into the effects of reduced RTI/UTI consultations on incidence of serious bacterial infections.

Protocol for an 'efficient design' cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate a complex intervention to improve antibiotic prescribing for CHIldren presenting to primary care with acute COugh and respiratory tract infection: the CHICO study

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in children are common and present major resource implications for primary care. Unnecessary use of antibiotics is associated with the development and proliferation of antimicrobial resistance. In 2016, the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)-funded 'TARGET' programme developed a prognostic algorithm to identify children with acute cough and RTI at very low risk of 30-day hospitalisation and unlikely to need antibiotics. The intervention includes: (1) explicit elicitation of parental concerns, (2) the results of the prognostic algorithm accompanied by prescribing guidance and (3) provision of a printout for carers including safety netting advice. The CHIldren's COugh feasibility study suggested differential recruitment of healthier patients in control practices. This phase III 'efficiently designed' trial uses routinely collected data at the practice level, thus avoiding individual patient consent. The aim is to assess whether embedding a multifaceted intervention into general practitioner (GP) practice Information Technology (IT) systems will result in reductions of antibiotic prescribing without impacting on hospital attendance for RTI.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The coprimary outcomes are (1) practice rate of dispensed amoxicillin and macrolide antibiotics, (2) hospital admission rate for RTI using routinely collected data by Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs). Data will be collected for children aged 0-9 years registered at 310 practices (155 intervention, 155 usual care) over a 12-month period. Recruitment and randomisation of practices (using the Egton Medical Information Systems web data management system) is conducted via each CCG stratified for children registered and baseline dispensing rates of each practice. Secondary outcomes will explore intervention effect modifiers. Qualitative interviews will explore intervention usage. The economic evaluation will be limited to a between-arm comparison in a cost-consequence analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Research ethics approval was given by London-Camden and Kings Cross Research Ethics Committee (ref:18/LO/0345). This manuscript refers to protocol V.4.0. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN11405239.

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.

Sepsis recording in primary care electronic health records, linked hospital episodes and mortality records: Population-based cohort study in England

Background

Sepsis is a growing concern for health systems, but the epidemiology of sepsis is poorly characterised. We evaluated sepsis recording across primary care electronic records, hospital episodes and mortality registrations.

Methods and findings

Cohort study including 378 general practices in England from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD database from 2002–2017 with 36,209,676 patient-years of follow-up with linked Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality registrations. Incident sepsis episodes were identified for each source. Concurrent records from different sources were identified and age-standardised and age-specific incidence rates compared. Logistic regression analysis evaluated associations of gender, age-group, fifth of deprivation and period of diagnosis with concurrent sepsis recording.

There were 20,206 first episodes of sepsis from primary care, 20,278 from HES and 13,972 from ONS. There were 4,117 (20%) first HES sepsis events and 2,438 (17%) mortality records concurrent with incident primary care sepsis records within 30 days. Concurrent HES and primary care records of sepsis within 30 days before or after first diagnosis were higher at younger or older ages and for patients with the most recent period of diagnosis. Those diagnosed during 2007:2011 were less likely to have a concurrent HES record given CPRD compared to those diagnosed during 2012–2017 (odd ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.60–0.70). At age 85 and older, primary care incidence was 5.22 per 1,000 patient years (95% CI 1.75–11.97) in men and 3.55 (0.87–9.58) in women which increased to 10.09 (4.86–18.51) for men and 7.22 (2.96–14.72) for women after inclusion of all three sources.

Conclusion

Explicit recording of ‘sepsis’ is inconsistent across healthcare sectors with a high proportion of non-concurrent records. Incidence estimates are higher when linked data are analysed.

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

BACKGROUND

Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.

METHODS

For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.

FINDINGS

We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.

INTERPRETATION

The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

Risks of use and non-use of antibiotics in primary care: qualitative study of prescribers' views

PURPOSE

The emergence of antimicrobial resistance has led to increasing efforts to reduce unnecessary use of antibiotics in primary care, but potential hazards from bacterial infection continue to cause concern. This study investigated how primary care prescribers perceive risk and safety concerns associated with reduced antibiotic prescribing.

METHODS

Qualitative study using semistructured interviews conducted with primary care prescribers from 10 general practices in an urban area and a shire town in England. A thematic analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

Thirty participants were recruited, including twenty-three general practitioners, five nurses and two pharmacists. Three main themes were identified: risk assessment, balancing treatment risks and negotiating decisions and risks. Respondents indicated that their decisions were grounded in clinical risk assessment, but this was informed by different approaches to antibiotic use, with most leaning towards reduced prescribing. Prescribers' perceptions of risk included the consequences of both inappropriate prescribing and inappropriate withholding of antibiotics. Sepsis was viewed as the most concerning potential outcome of non-prescribing, leading to possible patient harm and potential litigation. Risks of antibiotic prescribing included antibiotic resistant and Clostridium difficile infections, as well as side effects, such as rashes, that might lead to possible mislabelling as antibiotic allergy. Prescribers elicited patient preferences for use or avoidance of antibiotics to inform management strategies, which included educational advice, advice on self-management including warning signs, use of delayed prescriptions and safety netting.

CONCLUSIONS

Attitudes towards antibiotic prescribing are evolving, with reduced antibiotic prescribing now being approached more systematically. The safety trade-offs associated with either use or non-use of antibiotics present difficulties especially when prescribing decisions are inconsistent with patients' expectations.

Revisiting patient expectations and experiences of antibiotics in an era of antimicrobial resistance: Qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate contemporary patient expectations and experiences of antibiotic prescribing in England.

BACKGROUND

Primary care providers' compliance with patient influences has been identified as a motivation for antibiotic-prescribing behaviour. Since 2013, there have been concerted efforts to publicize and address the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance. A fresh qualitative insight into patient expectations and experiences is needed.

DESIGN

Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Two English regions, one an urban metropolitan area and the other a town in rural England. Patients who recently consulted for infections were recruited. The information power approach was used to determine the number of participants, yielding a sample of 31 participants.

MAIN MEASURES

Thematic analysis was carried out to analyse the interview data.

RESULTS

Five themes were identified: beliefs, expectations, experiences of taking antibiotic, experience of antimicrobial resistance and side-effects, and experiences of consultations. The accounts reflected improved public knowledge: antibiotics were perceived to be much-needed medicines that should be prescribed when appropriate. The data showed that patients formed expectations of expectations, trying to read the prescribers' intentions and reflect on the dependency between what prescribers and patients wanted. Patient experiences featured as nuanced and detailed with knowledge of AMR and side-effects of antibiotics in the context of positive consultation experiences.

CONCLUSIONS

The study highlighted complex interplays between adherence to antibiotics and consuming antibiotics in reflexive, informed ways. Ensuring that present and future patients are informed about potential benefits and harms of antibiotic use will contribute to future antimicrobial stewardship.

Electronically delivered interventions to reduce antibiotic prescribing for respiratory infections in primary care: cluster RCT using electronic health records and cohort study

BACKGROUND

Unnecessary prescribing of antibiotics in primary care is contributing to the emergence of antimicrobial drug resistance.

OBJECTIVES

To develop and evaluate a multicomponent intervention for antimicrobial stewardship in primary care, and to evaluate the safety of reducing antibiotic prescribing for self-limiting respiratory infections (RTIs).

INTERVENTIONS

A multicomponent intervention, developed as part of this study, including a webinar, monthly reports of general practice-specific data for antibiotic prescribing and decision support tools to inform appropriate antibiotic prescribing.

DESIGN

A parallel-group, cluster randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

The trial was conducted in 79 general practices in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

PARTICIPANTS

All registered patients were included.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the rate of antibiotic prescriptions for self-limiting RTIs over the 12-month intervention period.

COHORT STUDY

A separate population-based cohort study was conducted in 610 CPRD general practices that were not exposed to the trial interventions. Data were analysed to evaluate safety outcomes for registered patients with 45.5 million person-years of follow-up from 2005 to 2014.

RESULTS

There were 41 intervention trial arm practices (323,155 patient-years) and 38 control trial arm practices (259,520 patient-years). There were 98.7 antibiotic prescriptions for RTIs per 1000 patient-years in the intervention trial arm (31,907 antibiotic prescriptions) and 107.6 per 1000 patient-years in the control arm (27,923 antibiotic prescriptions) [adjusted antibiotic-prescribing rate ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78 to 0.99; p = 0.040]. There was no evidence of effect in children aged < 15 years (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.12) or adults aged ≥ 85 years (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.18). Antibiotic prescribing was reduced in adults aged between 15 and 84 years (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.95), that is, one antibiotic prescription was avoided for every 62 patients (95% CI 40 to 200 patients) aged 15-84 years per year. Analysis of trial data for 12 safety outcomes, including pneumonia and peritonsillar abscess, showed no evidence that these outcomes might be increased as a result of the intervention. The analysis of data from non-trial practices showed that if a general practice with an average list size of 7000 patients reduces the proportion of RTI consultations with antibiotics prescribed by 10%, then 1.1 (95% CI 0.6 to 1.5) more cases of pneumonia per year and 0.9 (95% CI 0.5 to 1.3) more cases of peritonsillar abscesses per decade may be observed. There was no evidence that mastoiditis, empyema, meningitis, intracranial abscess or Lemierre syndrome were more frequent at low-prescribing practices.

LIMITATIONS

The research was based on electronic health records that may not always provide complete data. The number of practices included in the trial was smaller than initially intended.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found evidence that, overall, general practice antibiotic prescribing for RTIs was reduced by this electronically delivered intervention. Antibiotic prescribing rates were reduced for adults aged 15-84 years, but not for children or the senior elderly.

FUTURE WORK

Strategies for antimicrobial stewardship should employ stratified interventions that are tailored to specific age groups. Further research into the safety of reduced antibiotic prescribing is also needed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN95232781.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Peritonsillar Abscess and Antibiotic Prescribing for Respiratory Infection in Primary Care: A Population-Based Cohort Study and Decision-Analytic Model

PURPOSE

To quantify the risk of peritonsillar abscess (PTA) following consultation for respiratory tract infection (RTI) in primary care.

METHOD

A cohort study was conducted in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink including 718 general practices with 65,681,293 patient years of follow-up and 11,007 patients with a first episode of PTA. From a decision tree, Bayes theorem was employed to estimate both the probability of PTA following an RTI consultation if antibiotics were prescribed or not, and the number of patients needed to be treated with antibiotics to prevent 1 PTA.

RESULTS

There were 11,007 patients with PTA with age-standardized incidence of new episodes of PTA of 17.2 per 100,000 patient years for men and 16.1 for women; 6,996 (64%) consulted their practitioner in the 30 days preceding PTA diagnosis, including 4,243 (39%) consulting for RTI. The probability of PTA following an RTI consultation was greatest in men aged 15 to 24 years with 1 PTA in 565 (95% uncertainty interval 527 to 605) RTI consultations without antibiotics prescribed but 1 in 1,139 consultations (1,044 to 1,242) if antibiotics were prescribed. One PTA might be avoided for every 1,121 (975 to 1,310) additional antibiotic prescriptions for men aged 15 to 24 years and 926 (814 to 1,063) for men aged 25 to 34 years. The risk of PTA following RTI consultation was smaller and the number needed to treat higher at other ages and risks were lower in women than men.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of PTA may be lower if antibiotics are prescribed for RTI but even in young men nearly 1,000 antibiotic prescriptions may be required to prevent 1 PTA case. We caution that lack of randomization and data standardization may bias estimates.

Well-being, physical activity and long-term conditions: cross-sectional analysis of Health Survey for England 2016

OBJECTIVES

We investigated whether physical activity is associated with greater well-being in people with multiple long-term conditions or limiting long-term illness (LLI).

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis of data from the Health Survey for England 2016.

METHODS

The Warwick-Edinburgh mental well-being score (WEMWBS) was evaluated according to number of days per week with >30 min moderate or vigorous activity. LLI and number of long-term conditions were evaluated as effect modifiers, adjusting for age, sex, smoking, body mass index and education. Marginal effects were estimated for female non-smokers, aged 45-54 years.

RESULTS

Data were analyzed for 5952 adults (female, 3275; male, 2677) including 1104 (19%) with non-limiting long-term illness and 1486 (25%) with LLI. There were 2065 (35%) with 1-2 long-term conditions, 461 (8%) with 3-4 and 58 (1%) with 5-6 long-term conditions. Participants with LLI were less likely to engage in physical activity on 5 or more days per week (LLI, 24%; No LLI, 47%) and more likely to be inactive (LLI, 41%; No LLI 13%). The adjusted marginal mean WEMWBS for inactive participants with no long-term illness was 49.0 (95% confidence interval 48.1 to 50.0), compared with 51.1 (50.4-51.8) if active on 5+ days per week. In LLI, the adjusted marginal mean WEMWBS was 41.6 (40.7-42.5) if inactive but 47.6 (46.6-48.6) if active on 5+ days per week. Similar associations were observed for the number of long-term conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Physical activity may be associated with greater increments in well-being among people with multiple long-term conditions or LLI than those without.

Probability of sepsis after infection consultations in primary care in the United Kingdom in 2002-2017: Population-based cohort study and decision analytic model

BACKGROUND

Efforts to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing have coincided with increasing awareness of sepsis. We aimed to estimate the probability of sepsis following infection consultations in primary care when antibiotics were or were not prescribed.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a cohort study including all registered patients at 706 general practices in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink, with 66.2 million person-years of follow-up from 2002 to 2017. There were 35,244 first episodes of sepsis (17,886, 51%, female; median age 71 years, interquartile range 57-82 years). Consultations for respiratory tract infection (RTI), skin or urinary tract infection (UTI), and antibiotic prescriptions were exposures. A Bayesian decision tree was used to estimate the probability (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of sepsis following an infection consultation. Age, gender, and frailty were evaluated as association modifiers. The probability of sepsis was lower if an antibiotic was prescribed, but the number of antibiotic prescriptions required to prevent one episode of sepsis (number needed to treat [NNT]) decreased with age. At 0-4 years old, the NNT was 29,773 (95% UI 18,458-71,091) in boys and 27,014 (16,739-65,709) in girls; over 85 years old, NNT was 262 (236-293) in men and 385 (352-421) in women. Frailty was associated with greater risk of sepsis and lower NNT. For severely frail patients aged 55-64 years, the NNT was 247 (156-459) in men and 343 (234-556) in women. At all ages, the probability of sepsis was greatest for UTI, followed by skin infection, followed by RTI. At 65-74 years, the NNT following RTI was 1,257 (1,112-1,434) in men and 2,278 (1,966-2,686) in women; the NNT following skin infection was 503 (398-646) in men and 784 (602-1,051) in women; following UTI, the NNT was 121 (102-145) in men and 284 (241-342) in women. NNT values were generally smaller for the period from 2014 to 2017, when sepsis was diagnosed more frequently. Lack of random allocation to antibiotic therapy might have biased estimates; patients may sometimes experience sepsis or receive antibiotic prescriptions without these being recorded in primary care; recording of sepsis has increased over the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

These stratified estimates of risk help to identify groups in which antibiotic prescribing may be more safely reduced. Risks of sepsis and benefits of antibiotics are more substantial among older adults, persons with more advanced frailty, or following UTIs.

Comparison of antibiotic prescribing records in two UK primary care electronic health record systems: cohort study using CPRD GOLD and CPRD Aurum databases

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate recording of antibiotic prescribing from two primary care electronic health record systems.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

UK general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) databases: CPRD GOLD (Vision data) and CPRD Aurum (EMIS data). English CPRD GOLD general practices were analysed as a subgroup, as all CPRD Aurum practices were located in England.

PARTICIPANTS

158 305 patients were randomly sampled from CPRD Aurum and 160 394 from CPRD GOLD.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Antibiotic prescriptions in 2017 were identified. Age-standardised and sex-standardised antibiotic prescribing rates per 1000 person years were calculated. Prescribing of individual antibiotic products and associated medical diagnoses was evaluated.

RESULTS

There were 101 360 antibiotic prescriptions at 883 CPRD Aurum practices and 112 931 prescriptions at 290 CPRD GOLD practices, including 112 general practices in England. The age-standardised and sex-standardised antibiotic prescribing rate in 2017 was 512.6 (95% CI 510.4 to 514.9) per 1000 person years in CPRD Aurum and 584.3 (582.1 to 586.5) per 1000 person years in CPRD GOLD (505.2 (501.6 to 508.9) per 1000 person years if restricted to practices in England). The 25 most frequently prescribed antibiotic products were similar in both databases. One or more medical codes were recorded on the same date as an antibiotic prescription for 72 989 (74%) prescriptions in CPRD Aurum, 84 756 (78%) in CPRD GOLD and 28 471 (78%) for CPRD GOLD in England. Skin, respiratory and genitourinary tract infections were recorded for 39 035 (40%) prescriptions in CPRD Aurum, 41 326 (38%) in CPRD GOLD, with 15 481 (42%) in English CPRD GOLD practices only.

CONCLUSION

Estimates for antibiotic prescribing and infection recording were broadly similar in both databases suggesting similar recording across EMIS and Vision systems. Future research on antimicrobial stewardship can also be conducted using primary care data in CPRD Aurum.

Serious bacterial infections and antibiotic prescribing in primary care: cohort study using electronic health records in the UK

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated whether serious bacterial infections are more frequent at family practices with lower antibiotic prescribing rates.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

706 UK family practices in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2002 to 2017.

PARTICIPANTS

10.1 million registered patients with 69.3 million patient-years' follow-up.

EXPOSURES

All antibiotic prescriptions, subgroups of acute and repeat antibiotic prescriptions, and proportion of antibiotic prescriptions associated with specific-coded indications.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

First episodes of serious bacterial infections. Poisson models were fitted adjusting for age group, gender, comorbidity, deprivation, region and calendar year, with random intercepts representing family practice-specific estimates.

RESULTS

The age-standardised antibiotic prescribing rate per 1000 patient-years increased from 2002 (male 423; female 621) to 2012 (male 530; female 842) before declining to 2017 (male 449; female 753). The median family practice had an antibiotic prescribing rate of 648 per 1000 patient-years with 95% range for different practices of 430-1038 antibiotic prescriptions per 1000 patient-years. Specific coded indications were recorded for 58% of antibiotic prescriptions at the median family practice, the 95% range at different family practices was from 10% to 75%. There were 139 759 first episodes of serious bacterial infection. After adjusting for covariates and the proportion of coded consultations, there was no evidence that serious bacterial infections were lower at family practices with higher total antibiotic prescribing. The adjusted rate ratio for 20% higher total antibiotic prescribing was 1.03, (95% CI 1.00 to 1.06, p=0.074).

CONCLUSIONS

We did not find population-level evidence that family practices with lower total antibiotic prescribing might have more frequent occurrence of serious bacterial infections overall. Improving the recording of infection episodes has potential to inform better antimicrobial stewardship in primary care.

Engagement with advice to reduce cardiovascular risk following a health check programme: A qualitative study

BACKGROUND

The success of a cardiovascular health check programme depends not only on the identification of individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but also on reducing CVD risk. We examined factors that might influence engagement and adherence to lifestyle change interventions and medication amongst people recently assessed at medium or high risk of CVD (>10% in the next 10 years).

METHOD

Qualitative study using individual semi-structured interviews. Data were analysed using the Framework method.

RESULTS

Twenty-two participants (12 men, 10 women) were included in the study. Four broad themes are described: (a) the meaning of 'risk', (b) experiences with medication, (c) attempts at lifestyle change, and (d) perceived enablers to longer-term change. The experience of having a health check was mostly positive and reassuring. Although participants may not have understood precisely what their CVD risk meant, many reported efforts to make lifestyle changes and take medications to reduce their risk. Individual's experience with medications was influenced by family, friends and the media. Lifestyle change services and family and friends support facilitated longer-term behaviour change.

CONCLUSIONS

People generally appear to respond positively to having a CVD health check and report being motivated towards behaviour change. Some individuals at higher risk may need clearer information about the health check and the implications of being at risk of CVD. Concerns over medication use may need to be addressed in order to improve adherence. Strategies are required to facilitate engagement and promote longer-term maintenance with lifestyle changes amongst high-risk individuals.

Cost-Effectiveness of Antihypertensive Therapy in Patients Older Than 80 Years: Cohort Study and Markov Model

BACKGROUND

Blood pressure and antihypertensive treatment (AHT) generally increase with age, but there is uncertainty concerning the value of treatment at very advanced ages.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of AHT in people aged 80 years and older.

METHODS

A Markov model compared AHT with no blood pressure treatment for prevention of cardiovascular disease. Outcomes were new stroke, coronary heart disease, and diabetes, with falls included as a potential complication of AHT. Costs were evaluated from a health system perspective. Incidence, mortality, and costs of healthcare utilization were estimated from linked primary and secondary care electronic health records for 98 220 individuals aged 80 years and older. Clinical effectiveness estimates were from the Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

In the base case, AHT was associated with an additional 725 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and £4.3 million per 1000, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5977 per QALY. The ICER was most sensitive to the cost of falls and relative risk reduction in stroke incidence. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis gave 95% uncertainty intervals: £5057 to £8398 per QALY in men and £4955 to £8218 per QALY in women. AHT for secondary prevention in participants with coronary heart disease gave an ICER of £9903 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

AHT is estimated to be cost-effective in individuals aged 80 years and older, even if health benefits are smaller or side effects costlier than in the base case. Benefits and harms for vulnerable subgroups require further evaluation.

Continuity of care and delivery of diabetes and hypertensive care among regular users of primary care services in Chile: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Explore factors related to continuity of care and its association with diabetes and hypertensive care, and disease control.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Data from the Chilean Health National Survey 2009-2010.

PARTICIPANTS

Regular users of primary care services aged 15 or older.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Proportion of hypertensive and diabetic patients with a blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg and HbA1c<7.0% respectively, self-report of diagnosis, treatment and recent foot and ophthalmological exams. Associations between continuity of care, sociodemographic characteristics, and primary and secondary outcomes were explored using logistic regression.

RESULTS

3887 primary care service users were included. 14.7% recognised a usual GP, 82.3% of them knew their name. Continuity of care was positively associated with age >65 years (OR 4.81, 95% CI 3.16 to 7.32), being female (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.34 to 2.05), retired (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.75 to 2.83), obese (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.14), high cardiovascular risk (OR 2.98, 95% CI 2.13 to 4.17) and widowed (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.99), and negatively associated with educational level (8-12 vs <8 years OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.97), smoking (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.82) and physical activity (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.95). Continuity of care was associated with diagnosis awareness (OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.21 to 6.63), pharmacological treatment (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.15 to 3.63) and a recent foot (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.84 to 5.45) and ophthalmological exam (OR 3.20, 95% CI 1.66 to 6.18) in diabetic but not in hypertensive patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Continuity of care was associated with higher odds of having a recent foot and ophthalmological exam in patients with diabetes, but not with better diseases control. Findings suggest patients with chronic conditions have better continuity of care access.

Reducing antibiotic prescribing in primary care in England from 2014 to 2017: population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To analyse individual-patient electronic health records to evaluate changes in antibiotic (AB) prescribing in England for different age groups, for male and female subjects, and by prescribing indications from 2014 to 2017.

METHODS

Data were analysed for 102 general practices in England that contributed data to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) from 2014 to 2017. Prescriptions for all ABs and for broad-spectrum β-lactam ABs were evaluated. Relative rate reductions (RRR) were estimated from a random-effects Poisson model, adjusting for age, gender, and general practice.

RESULTS

Total AB prescribing declined from 608 prescriptions per 1000 person-years in 2014 to 489 per 1000 person-years in 2017; RRR 6.9% (95% CI 6.6% to 7.1%) per year. Broad-spectrum β-lactam AB prescribing decreased from 221 per 1000 person-years in 2014 to 163 per 1000 person-years in 2017; RRR 9.3% (9.0% to 9.6%) per year. Declines in AB prescribing were similar for men and women but the rate of decline was lower over the age of 55 years than for younger patients. All AB prescribing declined by 9.8% (9.6% to 10.1%) per year for respiratory infections, 5.7% (5.2% to 6.2%) for genitourinary infections, but by 3.8% (3.1% to 4.5%) for no recorded indication. Overall, 38.8% of AB prescriptions were associated with codes that did not suggest specific clinical conditions, and 15.3% of AB prescriptions had no medical codes recorded.

CONCLUSION

Antibiotic prescribing has reduced and become more selective but substantial unnecessary AB use may persist. Improving the quality of diagnostic coding for AB use will help to support antimicrobial stewardship efforts.

Tuberculosis screening for prospective migrants to high-income countries: systematic review of policies

OBJECTIVE

To compare predeparture tuberculosis (TB) screening policies, including screening criteria and screening tests, and visa requirements for prospective migrants to high-income countries that have low to intermediate TB incidence and high immigration.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review of policy documents.

METHODS

We systematically identified high-income, high net-migration countries with an estimated TB incidence of <30 per 100,000. After initial selection, this yielded 15 countries which potentially had TB screening policies. We performed a systematic search of governmental and official visa services' websites for these countries to identify visa information and policy documents for prospective migrants. Results were summarized, tabulated, and compared.

RESULTS

Programs to screen for active TB were identified in all 15 countries, but screening criteria and screening tests varied substantially between countries. Prospective migrants' country of origin represented an initial assessment criterion which generally focused on elevated TB incidence based on World Health Organization data but also focused on the countries of origin that sent the most migrants, and this varied between destination countries. Specific categories of migrants represented a second assessment criterion that focused on duration of stay and reasons for migration; the focus of which showed variation between the destination countries. Specific screening tests including medical examination and chest X-rays were used as the final stage of assessment, and there were differences between which tests were used between the destination countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Current approaches to migrant TB screening are inconsistent in their approach and implementation. While this variation might reflect adaptation to local public health situations, it could also indicate uncertainty concerning optimal strategies. Comparative research studies are needed to define the most effective and efficient methods for TB screening of migrants.

Effectiveness and safety of electronically delivered prescribing feedback and decision support on antibiotic use for respiratory illness in primary care: REDUCE cluster randomised trial

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness and safety at population scale of electronically delivered prescribing feedback and decision support interventions at reducing antibiotic prescribing for self limiting respiratory tract infections.

DESIGN

Open label, two arm, cluster randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

UK general practices in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, randomised between 11 November 2015 and 9 August 2016, with final follow-up on 9 August 2017.

PARTICIPANTS

79 general practices (582 675 patient years) randomised (1:1) to antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) intervention or usual care.

INTERVENTIONS

AMS intervention comprised a brief training webinar, automated monthly feedback reports of antibiotic prescribing, and electronic decision support tools to inform appropriate prescribing over 12 months. Intervention components were delivered electronically, supported by a local practice champion nominated for the trial.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome was the rate of antibiotic prescriptions for respiratory tract infections from electronic health records. Serious bacterial complications were evaluated for safety. Analysis was by Poisson regression with general practice as a random effect, adjusting for covariates. Prespecified subgroup analyses by age group were reported.

RESULTS

The trial included 41 AMS practices (323 155 patient years) and 38 usual care practices (259 520 patient years). Unadjusted and adjusted rate ratios for antibiotic prescribing were 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.68 to 1.16) and 0.88 (0.78 to 0.99, P=0.04), respectively, with prescribing rates of 98.7 per 1000 patient years for AMS (31 907 prescriptions) and 107.6 per 1000 patient years for usual care (27 923 prescriptions). Antibiotic prescribing was reduced most in adults aged 15-84 years (adjusted rate ratio 0.84, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.95), with one antibiotic prescription per year avoided for every 62 patients (95% confidence interval 40 to 200). There was no evidence of effect for children younger than 15 years (adjusted rate ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 1.12) or people aged 85 years and older (0.97, 0.79 to 1.18); there was also no evidence of an increase in serious bacterial complications (0.92, 0.74 to 1.13).

CONCLUSIONS

Electronically delivered interventions, integrated into practice workflow, result in moderate reductions of antibiotic prescribing for respiratory tract infections in adults, which are likely to be of importance for public health. Antibiotic prescribing to very young or old patients requires further evaluation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN95232781.

Implementing multiple health behaviour change interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction in primary care: a qualitative study

Background

The implementation of multiple health behaviour change interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction in primary care is suboptimal. This study aimed to identify barriers and facilitators to implementing multiple health behaviour change interventions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction in primary care.

Methods

Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews informed by the Theoretical Domains Framework. Interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of healthcare professionals working in the implementation of the NHS Health Check programme in London. Data were analysed using the Framework method.

Results

Thirty participants were recruited including ten general practitioners, ten practice nurses, seven healthcare assistants and three practice managers from 23 practices. Qualitative analysis identified three main themes: healthcare professionals’ conceptualising health behaviour change; delivering multiple health behaviour change interventions in primary care; and delivering the health check programme. Healthcare professionals generally recognised the importance of health behaviour change for CVD risk reduction but were more sceptical about the potential for successful intervention through primary care. Participants identified the difficulty of sustained behaviour change for patients, the lack of evidence for effective interventions and limited access to appropriate resources in primary care as barriers. Discussing changing multiple health behaviours was perceived to be overwhelming for patients and difficult to implement for healthcare professionals with current primary care resources. The health check programme consists of several components that are difficult to fully complete in limited time.

Conclusions

Advancing the prevention agenda will require strategies to support the delivery of behaviour change interventions in primary care. Greater emphasis needs to be given to promoting behaviour change through supportive environmental context. Further research is needed to evaluate current external lifestyle services to improve the intervention outcomes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12875-018-0860-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Determinants of health care costs in the senior elderly: age, comorbidity, impairment, or proximity to death?

Ageing is assumed to be accompanied by greater health care expenditures but the association is also viewed as a 'red herring'. This study aimed to evaluate whether age is associated with health care costs in the senior elderly, using electronic health records for 98,220 participants aged 80 years and over registered with the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked Hospital Episode Statistics (2010-2014). Annual costs of health care utilization were estimated from a two-part model; multiple fractional polynomial models were employed to evaluate the non-linear association of age with predicted health care costs while also controlling for comorbidities, impairments, and death proximity. Annual health care costs increased from 80 years (£2972 in men, £2603 in women) to 97 (men; £4721) or 98 years (women; £3963), before declining. Costs were significantly elevated in the last year of life but this effect declined with age, from £10,027 in younger octogenarians to £7021 in centenarians. This decline was steeper in participants with comorbidities or impairments; £14,500 for 80-84-year-olds and £6752 for centenarians with 7+ impairments. At other times, comorbidity and impairments, not age, were main drivers of costs. We conclude that comorbidities, impairments, and proximity to death are key mediators of age-related increases in health care costs. While the costs of comorbidity among survivors are not generally associated with age, additional costs in the last year of life decline with age.

Automated recruitment and randomisation for an efficient randomised controlled trial in primary care

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Use of electronic health records and information technology to deliver more efficient clinical trials is attracting the attention of research funders and researchers. We report on methodological issues and data quality for a comparison of 'automated' and manual (or 'in-practice') methods for recruitment and randomisation in a large randomised controlled trial, with individual patient allocation in primary care.

METHODS

We conducted a three-arm randomised controlled trial in primary care to evaluate interventions to improve the uptake of invited NHS health checks for cardiovascular risk assessment. Eligible participants were identified using a borough-wide health check management information system. An in-practice recruitment and randomisation method used at 12 general practices required the research team to complete monthly visits to each general practice. For the fully automated method, employed for six general practices, randomisation of eligible participants was performed automatically and remotely using a bespoke algorithm embedded in the health check management information system.

RESULTS

There were 8588 and 4093 participants recruited for the manual and automated methods, respectively. The in-practice method was ready for implementation 3 months sooner than the automated method and the in-practice method allowed for full control and documentation of the randomisation procedure. However the in-practice approach was labour intensive and the requirement for participant records to be stored locally resulted in the loss of data for 10 practice months. No records for participants allocated using the automated method were lost. A fixed-effects meta-analysis showed that effect estimates for the primary outcome were consistent for the two allocation methods.

CONCLUSIONS

This trial demonstrated the feasibility of automated recruitment and randomisation methods into a randomised controlled trial performed in primary care. Future research should explore the application of these techniques in other clinical contexts and health care settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials, ID: ISRCTN42856343 . Registered on 21 March 2013.

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

BACKGROUND

Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure.

METHODS

We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure.

RESULTS

In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association.

CONCLUSIONS

Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.

Cardiovascular risk at health checks performed opportunistically or following an invitation letter. Cohort study

Background

A population-based programme of health checks has been established in England. Participants receive postal invitations through a population-based call–recall system but health check providers may also offer health checks opportunistically. We compared cardiovascular risk scores for ‘invited’ and ‘opportunistic’ health checks.

Methods

Cohort study of all health checks completed at 18 general practices from July 2013 to June 2015. For each general practice, cardiovascular (CVD) risk scores were compared by source of check and pooled using meta-analysis. Effect estimates were compared by gender, age-group, ethnicity and fifths of deprivation.

Results

There were 6184 health checks recorded (2280 invited and 3904 opportunistic) with CVD risk scores recorded for 5359 (87%) participants. There were 17.0% of invited checks and 22.2% of opportunistic health checks with CVD risk score ≥10%; a relative increment of 28% (95% confidence interval: 14–44%, P < 0.001). In the most deprived quintile, 15.3% of invited checks and 22.4% of opportunistic checks were associated with elevated CVD risk (adjusted odds ratio: 1.94, 1.37–2.74, P  < 0.001).

Conclusions

Respondents at health checks performed opportunistically are at higher risk of cardiovascular disease than those participating in response to a standard invitation letter, potentially reducing the effect of uptake inequalities.

Enhanced Invitations Using the Question-Behavior Effect and Financial Incentives to Promote Health Check Uptake in Primary Care

Background

Uptake of health checks for cardiovascular risk assessment in primary care in England is lower than anticipated. The question-behavior effect (QBE) may offer a simple, scalable intervention to increase health check uptake.

Purpose

The present study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of enhanced invitation methods employing the QBE, with or without a financial incentive to return the questionnaire, at increasing uptake of health checks.

Methods

We conducted a three-arm randomized trial including all patients at 18 general practices in two London boroughs, who were invited for health checks from July 2013 to December 2014. Participants were randomized to three trial arms: (i) Standard health check invitation letter only; (ii) QBE questionnaire followed by standard invitation letter; or (iii) QBE questionnaire with offer of a financial incentive to return the questionnaire, followed by standard invitation letter. In intention to treat analysis, the primary outcome of completion of health check within 6 months of invitation, was evaluated using a p value of .0167 for significance.

Results

12,459 participants were randomized. Health check uptake was evaluated for 12,052 (97%) with outcome data collected. Health check uptake within 6 months of invitation was: standard invitation, 590 / 4,095 (14.41%); QBE questionnaire, 630 / 3,988 (15.80%); QBE questionnaire and financial incentive, 629 / 3,969 (15.85%). Difference following QBE questionnaire, 1.43% (95% confidence interval -0.12 to 2.97%, p = .070); following QBE questionnaire and financial incentive, 1.52% (-0.03 to 3.07%, p = .054).

Conclusions

Uptake of health checks following a standard invitation was low and not significantly increased through enhanced invitation methods using the QBE.

Antidepressant utilisation and incidence of weight gain during 10 years' follow-up: population based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the long term association between antidepressant prescribing and body weight.

DESIGN

Population based cohort study.

SETTING

General practices contributing to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, 2004-14.

PARTICIPANTS

136 762 men and 157 957 women with three or more records for body mass index (BMI).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcomes were antidepressant prescribing, incidence of ≥5% increase in body weight, and transition to overweight or obesity. Adjusted rate ratios were estimated from a Poisson model adjusting for age, sex, depression recording, comorbidity, coprescribing of antiepileptics or antipsychotics, deprivation, smoking, and advice on diet.

RESULTS

In the year of study entry, 17 803 (13.0%) men and 35 307 (22.4%) women with a mean age of 51.5 years (SD 16.6 years) were prescribed antidepressants. During 1 836 452 person years of follow-up, the incidence of new episodes of ≥5 weight gain in participants not prescribed antidepressants was 8.1 per 100 person years and in participants prescribed antidepressants was 11.2 per 100 person years (adjusted rate ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 1.22, P<0.001). The risk of weight gain remained increased during at least six years of follow-up. In the second year of treatment the number of participants treated with antidepressants for one year for one additional episode of ≥5% weight gain was 27 (95% confidence interval 25 to 29). In people who were initially of normal weight, the adjusted rate ratio for transition to overweight or obesity was 1.29 (1.25 to 1.34); in people who were initially overweight, the adjusted rate ratio for transition to obesity was 1.29 (1.25 to 1.33). Associations may not be causal, and residual confounding might contribute to overestimation of associations.

CONCLUSION

Widespread utilisation of antidepressants may be contributing to long term increased risk of weight gain at population level. The potential for weight gain should be considered when antidepressant treatment is indicated.

Multiple risk factor control, mortality and cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of multiple risk factor control (MRFC) at reducing mortality and cardiovascular events in diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in clinical practice.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Primary care database in the UK, linked with inpatient and mortality data.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants aged 40-79 years with type 2 diabetes and valid serum creatinine measurements, including 11 431 participants with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate: eGFR 15-59 mL/min/1.73 m²) and 36 429 participants with non-CKD (eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m²).

EXPOSURES

MRFC consisted of four components: Haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) <53 mmol/mol (<7.0%), blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg, total cholesterol <5 mmol/L and no smoking. The main exposure variable was the number of risk factors controlled at baseline.

OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the overall participants. Cardiovascular events, including coronary heart disease and stroke, in participants limited to those without a history of cardiovascular diseases at baseline.

RESULTS

In participants with CKD, 37% or 13% met three or four MRFC criteria, respectively. Increasing numbers of risk factors controlled were associated with lower relative hazards for all outcomes studied compared with those meeting no or one criterion. For participants with CKD meeting four criteria, the adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 0.60 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.69) and the adjusted subdistribution HR for cardiovascular mortality was 0.60 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.70), considering a competing risk of non-cardiovascular death. Participants meeting four criteria also had lower relative hazards for coronary heart disease (adjusted subdistribution HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.91) and stroke (0.63, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.89), considering death as a competing risk.

CONCLUSIONS

MRFC may lower the increased risks for mortality and cardiovascular events in people with diabetes and CKD. Further research is needed to evaluate appropriateness of MRFC according to individual participants' health status for improved management of cardiovascular risks in this population.

Enhanced invitation methods and uptake of health checks in primary care: randomised controlled trial and cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

A national programme of health checks to identify risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is being rolled out but is encountering difficulties because of low uptake.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effectiveness of an enhanced invitation method using the question-behaviour effect (QBE), with or without the offer of a financial incentive to return the QBE questionnaire, at increasing the uptake of health checks. The research went on to evaluate the reasons for the low uptake of invitations and compare the case mix for invited and opportunistic health checks.

DESIGN

Three-arm randomised trial and cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

All participants invited for a health check from 18 general practices. Individual participants were randomised.

INTERVENTIONS

(1) Standard health check invitation only; (2) QBE questionnaire followed by a standard invitation; and (3) QBE questionnaire with offer of a financial incentive to return the questionnaire, followed by a standard invitation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was completion of the health check within 6 months of invitation. A p-value of 0.0167 was used for significance. In the cohort study of all health checks completed during the study period, the case mix was compared for participants responding to invitations and those receiving 'opportunistic' health checks. Participants were not aware that several types of invitation were in use. The research team were blind to trial arm allocation at outcome data extraction.

RESULTS

In total, 12,459 participants were included in the trial and health check uptake was evaluated for 12,052 participants for whom outcome data were collected. Health check uptake was as follows: standard invitation, 590 out of 4095 (14.41%); QBE questionnaire, 630 out of 3988 (15.80%); QBE questionnaire and financial incentive, 629 out of 3969 (15.85%). The increase in uptake associated with the QBE questionnaire was 1.43% [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.12% to 2.97%; p = 0.070] and the increase in uptake associated with the QBE questionnaire and offer of financial incentive was 1.52% (95% CI -0.03% to 3.07%; p = 0.054). The difference in uptake associated with the offer of an incentive to return the QBE questionnaire was -0.01% (95% CI -1.59% to 1.58%; p = 0.995). During the study period, 58% of health check cardiovascular risk assessments did not follow a trial invitation. People who received an 'opportunistic' health check had greater odds of a ≥ 10% CVD risk than those who received an invited health check (adjusted odds ratio 1.70, 95% CI 1.45 to 1.99; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Uptake of a health check following an invitation letter is low and is not increased through an enhanced invitation method using the QBE. The offer of a £5 incentive did not increase the rate of return of the QBE questionnaire. A high proportion of all health checks are performed opportunistically and not in response to a standard invitation letter. Participants receiving opportunistic checks are at higher risk of CVD than those responding to standard invitations. Future research should aim to increase the accessibility of preventative medical interventions to increase uptake. Research should also explore the wider use of electronic health records in delivering efficient trials.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN42856343.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 84. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.