Rudovick Reuben Kazwala

An outstanding Tanzanian scientist in the field of veterinary epidemiology and One Health research.

Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus Seroprevalence in Human and Livestock Populations, Northern Tanzania

We conducted a cross-sectional study of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) in northern Tanzania. CCHFV seroprevalence in humans and ruminant livestock was high, as were spatial heterogeneity levels. CCHFV could represent an unrecognized human health risk in this region and should be included as a differential diagnosis for febrile illness.

Integrating a community-based continuous mass dog vaccination delivery strategy into the veterinary system of Tanzania: A process evaluation using normalization process theory

Abstract

Sustained vaccination coverage of domestic dog populations can interrupt rabies transmission. However, challenges remain including low dog owner participation, high operational costs associated with current (centralized and annually delivered (pulse)) approaches and high dog population turnover. To address these challenges an alternative (community-based continuous mass dog vaccination (CBC-MDV)) approach was designed. We investigated the potential for successful normalization of CBC-MDV into routine practice within the context of local communities and the veterinary system of Tanzania.

Methods

In a process evaluation of a pilot implementation of CBC-MDV, we conducted in-depth interviews with implementers and community leaders (n = 24), focus group discussion with implementers and community members (n = 12), and non-participant observation (n = 157 h) of delivery of the intervention components. We analyzed these data thematically drawing on the normalization process theory, to assess factors affecting implementation and integration.

Main findings

Implementers and community members clearly understood the values and benefits of the CBC-MDV, regarding it as an improvement over the pulse strategy. They had a clear understanding of what was required to enact CBC-MDV and considered their own involvement to be legitimate. The approach fitted well into routine schedules of implementers and the context (infrastructure, skill sets and policy). Implementers and community members positively appraised CBC-MDV in terms of its perceived impact on rabies and recommended its use across the country. Implementers and community members further believed that vaccinating dogs free of charge was critical and made community mobilization easier. However, providing feedback to communities and involving them in evaluating outcomes of vaccination campaigns were reported to have not been done. Local politics was cited as a barrier to collaboration between implementers and community leaders.

Conclusion

This work suggests that CBC-MDV has the potential to be integrated and sustained in the context of Tanzania. Involving communities in design, delivery and monitoring of CBC-MDV activities could contribute to improving and sustaining its outcomes.

Modeling the effectiveness of targeting Rift Valley fever virus vaccination using imperfect network information

Livestock movements contribute to the spread of several infectious diseases. Data on livestock movements can therefore be harnessed to guide policy on targeted interventions for controlling infectious livestock diseases, including Rift Valley fever (RVF)-a vaccine-preventable arboviral fever. Detailed livestock movement data are known to be useful for targeting control efforts including vaccination. These data are available in many countries, however, such data are generally lacking in others, including many in East Africa, where multiple RVF outbreaks have been reported in recent years. Available movement data are imperfect, and the impact of this uncertainty in the utility of movement data on informing targeting of vaccination is not fully understood. Here, we used a network simulation model to describe the spread of RVF within and between 398 wards in northern Tanzania connected by cattle movements, on which we evaluated the impact of targeting vaccination using imperfect movement data. We show that pre-emptive vaccination guided by only market movement permit data could prevent large outbreaks. Targeted control (either by the risk of RVF introduction or onward transmission) at any level of imperfect movement information is preferred over random vaccination, and any improvement in information reliability is advantageous to their effectiveness. Our modeling approach demonstrates how targeted interventions can be effectively used to inform animal and public health policies for disease control planning. This is particularly valuable in settings where detailed data on livestock movements are either unavailable or imperfect due to resource limitations in data collection, as well as challenges associated with poor compliance.

Integrating contact tracing and whole-genome sequencing to track the elimination of dog-mediated rabies: an observational and genomic study

Background

Dog-mediated rabies is endemic across Africa causing thousands of human deaths annually. A One Health approach to rabies is advocated, comprising emergency post-exposure vaccination of bite victims and mass dog vaccination to break the transmission cycle. However, the impacts and cost-effectiveness of these components are difficult to disentangle.

Methods

We combined contact tracing with whole-genome sequencing to track rabies transmission in the animal reservoir and spillover risk to humans from 2010-2020, investigating how the components of a One Health approach reduced the disease burden and eliminated rabies from Pemba Island, Tanzania. With the resulting high-resolution spatiotemporal and genomic data we inferred transmission chains and estimated case detection. Using a decision tree model we quantified the public health burden and evaluated the impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions over a ten-year time horizon.

Results

We resolved five transmission chains co-circulating on Pemba from 2010 that were all eliminated by May 2014. During this period, rabid dogs, human rabies exposures and deaths all progressively declined following initiation and improved implementation of annual islandwide dog vaccination. We identified two introductions to Pemba in late 2016 that seeded re-emergence after dog vaccination had lapsed. The ensuing outbreak was eliminated in October 2018 through reinstated islandwide dog vaccination. While post-exposure vaccines were projected to be highly cost-effective ($256 per death averted), only dog vaccination interrupts transmission. A combined One Health approach of routine annual dog vaccination together with free post-exposure vaccines for bite victims, rapidly eliminates rabies, is highly cost-effective ($1657 per death averted) and by maintaining rabies freedom prevents over 30 families from suffering traumatic rabid dog bites annually on Pemba island.

Conclusions

A One Health approach underpinned by dog vaccination is an efficient, cost-effective, equitable and feasible approach to rabies elimination, but needs scaling up across connected populations to sustain the benefits of elimination, as seen on Pemba, and for similar progress to be achieved elsewhere.

Funding

Wellcome [207569/Z/17/Z, 095787/Z/11/Z, 103270/Z/13/Z], the UBS Optimus Foundation, the Department of Health and Human Services of the National Institutes of Health [R01AI141712] and the DELTAS Africa Initiative [Afrique One-ASPIRE/DEL-15-008] comprising a donor consortium of the African Academy of Sciences (AAS), Alliance for Accelerating Excellence in Science in Africa (AESA), the New Partnership for Africa's Development Planning and Coordinating (NEPAD) Agency, Wellcome [107753/A/15/Z], Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Small Grant 2017 [GR000892] and the UK government. The rabies elimination demonstration project from 2010-2015 was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP49679]. Whole-genome sequencing was partially supported from APHA by funding from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Scottish government and Welsh government under projects SEV3500 & SE0421.

'One Health´ approach to end zoonotic TB

Mycobacterium bovis has a wide host range causing TB in animals, both in wildlife and cattle (bovine TB bTB), and in humans (zoonotic TB zTB). The real burden of bovine and zoonotic TB (b/zTB) remains unknown due to diagnostic challenges. Although progress has been made to reduce the burden of TB, b/zTB has been neglected in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with little improvement in prevention, diagnosis or treatment. Using Tanzania as a case study, because of its high TB burden, large wildlife diversity and wide reliance on livestock, we developed an approach to comprehensively estimate the burden and implement multidisciplinary actions against b/zTB. We performed a review of the literature on b/zTB, but there is a lack of available data on the b/zTB burden in Tanzania and, notably, on epidemiological indicators other than incidence. We propose a five-action programme to address b/zTB in Tanzania, and we believe our proposed approach could benefit other LMICs as it operates by implementing and strengthening surveillance and health delivery. The resulting knowledge and system organisation could further prevent and mitigate the effects of such conditions on human and animal health, livestock production, population livelihood and the economy.

An outbreak of Rift Valley fever among peri-urban dairy cattle in northern Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Human and animal cases of Rift Valley fever (RVF) are typically only reported during large outbreaks. The occurrence of RVF cases that go undetected by national surveillance systems in the period between these outbreaks is considered likely. The last reported cases of RVF in Tanzania occurred during a large outbreak in 2007-2008.

METHODS

Samples collected between 2017 and 2019 from livestock suffering abortion across northern Tanzania were retrospectively tested for evidence of RVF virus infection using serology and reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR).

RESULTS

A total of 14 RVF-associated cattle abortions were identified among dairy cattle in a peri-urban area surrounding the town of Moshi. RVF cases occurred from May to August 2018 and were considered to represent an undetected, small-scale RVF outbreak. Milk samples from 3 of 14 cases (21%) were found to be RT-qPCR positive. Genotyping revealed circulation of RVF viruses from two distinct lineages.

CONCLUSIONS

RVF outbreaks can occur more often in endemic settings than would be expected on the basis of detection by national surveillance. The occurrence of RVF cases among peri-urban dairy cattle and evidence for viral shedding in milk, also highlights potentially emerging risks for RVF associated with increasing urban and peri-urban livestock populations.

Inter-epidemic Rift Valley fever virus infection incidence and risks for zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that has caused epidemics involving people and animals across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. A number of studies have found evidence for the circulation of RVFV among livestock between these epidemics but the population-level incidence of infection during this inter-epidemic period (IEP) is rarely reported. General force of infection (FOI) models were applied to age-adjusted cross-sectional serological data to reconstruct the annual FOI and population-level incidence of RVFV infection among cattle, goats, and sheep in northern Tanzania from 2009 through 2015, a period without reported Rift Valley fever (RVF) cases in people or animals. To evaluate the potential for zoonotic RVFV spillover during this period, the relationship between village-level livestock RVFV FOI and human RVFV seropositivity was quantified using multi-level logistic regression. The predicted average annual incidence was 72 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 63, 81) RVFV infections per 10,000 animals and 96 (95% CrI 81, 113), 79 (95% CrI 62, 98), and 39 (95% CrI 28, 52) per 10,000 cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. There was variation in transmission intensity between study villages, with the highest estimated village-level FOI 2.49% (95% CrI 1.89, 3.23) and the lowest 0.12% (95% CrI 0.02, 0.43). The human RVFV seroprevalence was 8.2% (95% Confidence Interval 6.2, 10.9). Human seropositivity was strongly associated with the village-level FOI in livestock, with the odds of seropositivity in an individual person increasing by around 1.2 times (95% CrI 1.1, 1.3) for each additional annual RVFV seroconversion per 1,000 animals. A history of raw milk consumption was also positively associated with human seropositivity. RVFV has circulated at apparently low levels among livestock in northern Tanzania in the period since the last reported epidemic. Although our data do not allow us to confirm human RVFV infections during the IEP, a strong association between human seropositivity and the FOI in cattle, goats, and sheep supports the hypothesis that RVFV circulation among livestock during the IEP poses a risk for undetected zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania. We provide further evidence for the likely role of raw milk consumption in RVFV transmission from animals to people.

Cystic echinococcosis in northern Tanzania: a pilot study in Maasai livestock-keeping communities

Background

There are close similarities between the life-cycles of Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato (E. granulosus s.l.) that causes cystic echinococcosis (CE) in humans and Taenia multiceps/Coenurus cerebralis that causes cerebral coenurosis in small ruminants. Recent evidence highlights that livestock in Maasai communities of northern Tanzania are suffering from increases in the prevalence of cerebral coenurosis, leading to concerns about a possible concurrent increased risk of human CE. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of human abdominal CE and the prevalence and species/genotypes of E. granulosus s.l. in livestock in Maasai communities.

Methods

Human CE was diagnosed by abdominal ultrasound on volunteers aged ≥ 7 years in five villages in the Longido and Ngorongoro Districts in northern Tanzania. Infection in ruminants was evaluated through inspection in local abattoirs, followed by molecular identification of one cyst per animal, with a priority for hepatic cysts, using PCR targeting of the cytochrome c oxidase I gene (COX1), followed by restriction fragment length polymorphism and multiplex PCR, and sequencing of non-E. granulosus s.l. samples.

Results

Ultrasound was performed on 823 volunteers (n = 352 in two villages in Longido District, and n = 471 in three villages of Ngorongoro). Hepatic CE cases were diagnosed only in Ngorongoro (n = 6; 1.3%), of which three had active cysts. Village-level prevalence of CE ranged between 0 and 2.4%. Of the 697 ruminants inspected, 34.4% had parasitic cysts. Molecular identification was achieved for 140 of the 219 (63.9%) cysts sampled. E. granulosus s.l. and T. hydatigena/Cysticercus tenuicollis were identified in 51.4% and 48.6%, respectively, of livestock cysts. E. granulosus s.l. was identified in livestock from both Longido (35.3% of 116 genotyped cysts) and Ngorongoro (91.2% of 34 genotyped cysts). Of the total of 72 E. granuslosus s.l. cysts identified in livestock, 87.5% were E. granulosus sensu stricto (G1–G3 genotypes), 9.7% were E. ortleppi (G5) and one cyst was E. canadensis (G6–10). The three active human cysts, which were removed surgically, were G1–G3 genotypes.

Conclusions

Multiple species/genotypes of E. granulosus s.l. are circulating in Maasai communities of northern Tanzania. Human CE was detected in villages of Ngorongoro District and a high prevalence of echinococcal cysts was observed in livestock in both districts. More precise estimation of the prevalence in this area and a better understanding of the specific risk factors for CE among Maasai communities in northern Tanzania is needed. Interventions targeting transmission routes common to both E. granulosus s.l. and T. multiceps would have dual benefits for preventing both human and livestock disease.

Graphical Abstract

Participation in mass dog vaccination campaigns in Tanzania: Benefits of community engagement

Background

Canine rabies causes about 59,000 human deaths each year globally but the disease can be eliminated by sustaining sufficient dog vaccination coverage over several consecutive years. A challenge to achieving high coverage is low participation of dog owners in vaccination campaigns. We explored whether and how previously identified contributory factors to low participation can be addressed through community engagement activities.

Methods

We engaged communities in two wards in Tanzania on dog behavior and handling, safe ways of interacting with dogs, and their perceptions of dog vaccination. We shared and elicited information from them through village meetings, video screenings, posters and leaflets and involved the leadership of one of the wards in planning and implementing a dog vaccination exercise to explore the feasibility of their participation. We assessed the impact of engagement activities with household surveys, meeting reports, observations and focus group discussions. We used a generalized linear mixed-effects model to identify predictors of knowledge and perceptions and compared knowledge amongst respondents before and after engagement activities. Qualitative data was analyzed inductively to explore perceptions of dog handling and vaccination and feasibility, opportunities and barriers to community leadership participation in organizing mass dog vaccination.

Main findings

Knowledge of dog behavior, dog handling, and safe ways of interacting with dogs was positively associated with age (p < 0.0001), dog ownership (p = 0.0203), training (p = 0.0010) and previous experience of a dog bite (p = 0.0002); and was negatively associated with being afraid of dogs (p = 0.0061) and participation in a recent dog vaccination campaign (p = 0.0077). Knowledge was low before and significantly improved after engagement activities. The majority (92%) of respondents believed dog vaccination has no negative effects on dogs. Respondents perceived lack of bonding with their dog as a limitation to the ability to restrain a dog for vaccination. The community performed most roles assigned to them in the dog vaccination exercise, but barriers such as lack of motivation for volunteering exist.

Conclusion

Engaging communities regularly on dog vaccination can improve their knowledge of dog behavior and dog handling techniques, and may help improve owner participation in dog vaccination campaigns.

Development, feasibility and potential effectiveness of community-based continuous mass dog vaccination delivery strategies: Lessons for optimization and replication

Objectives

Dog vaccination can eliminate rabies in dogs, but annual delivery strategies do not sustain vaccination coverage between campaigns. We describe the development of a community-based continuous mass dog vaccination (CBC-MDV) approach designed to improve and maintain vaccination coverage in Tanzania and examine the feasibility of delivering this approach as well as lessons for its optimization.

Methods

We developed three delivery strategies of CBC-MDV and tested them against the current annual vaccination strategy following the UK Medical Research Council’s guidance: i) developing an evidence-based theoretical framework of intervention pathways and ii) piloting to test feasibility and inform optimization. For our process evaluation of CBC-MDV we collected data using non-participant observations, meeting reports and implementation audits and in-depth interviews, as well as household surveys of vaccination coverage to assess potential effectiveness. We analyzed qualitative data thematically and quantitative data descriptively.

Results

The final design included delivery by veterinary teams supported by village-level one health champions. In terms of feasibility, we found that less than half of CBC-MDV’s components were implemented as planned. Fidelity of delivery was influenced by the strategy design, implementer availability and appreciation of value intervention components, and local environmental and socioeconomic events (e.g. elections, funerals, school cycles). CBC-MDV activities decreased sharply after initial campaigns, partly due to lack of supervision. Community engagement and involvement was not strong. Nonetheless, the CBC-MDV approaches achieved vaccination coverage above the critical threshold (40%) all-year-round. CBC-MDV components such as identifying vaccinated dogs, which village members work as one health champions and how provision of continuous vaccination is implemented need further optimization prior to scale up.

Interpretation

CBC-MDV is feasible to deliver and can achieve good vaccination coverage. Community involvement in the development of CBC-MDV, to better tailor components to contextual situations, and improved supervision of activities are likely to improve vaccination coverage in future.

Annual mass dog vaccination campaigns that reach at least 70% of the dog population, should maintain sufficient herd immunity (sustain vaccination coverage above 40%) between campaigns to interrupt rabies transmission. However, it is often challenging to reach 70% of the dog population with annual vaccination campaigns. We hypothesized that a community-based continuous approach to dog vaccination could better maintain high levels of vaccination coverage all-year-round. We describe the development of a community-based continuous approach to dog vaccination in Tanzania, and assessed the feasibility of delivering its components, its potential effectiveness and lessons for its optimization. We found that the approach was well accepted, as its development involved key stakeholders. Although less than half of the components of the community-based continuous approach were delivered exactly as planned, over 70% of dogs were vaccinated and the approach maintained coverage above the critical vaccination threshold throughout the year. We conclude that it is feasible to deliver a community-based continuous approach to dog vaccination, but that some components need further improvement; more supervision and community involvement should lead to better outcomes.

Prospective cohort study reveals unexpected aetiologies of livestock abortion in northern Tanzania

Livestock abortion is an important cause of productivity losses worldwide and many infectious causes of abortion are zoonotic pathogens that impact on human health. Little is known about the relative importance of infectious causes of livestock abortion in Africa, including in subsistence farming communities that are critically dependent on livestock for food, income, and wellbeing. We conducted a prospective cohort study of livestock abortion, supported by cross-sectional serosurveillance, to determine aetiologies of livestock abortions in livestock in Tanzania. This approach generated several important findings including detection of a Rift Valley fever virus outbreak in cattle; high prevalence of C. burnetii infection in livestock; and the first report of Neospora caninum, Toxoplasma gondii, and pestiviruses associated with livestock abortion in Tanzania. Our approach provides a model for abortion surveillance in resource-limited settings. Our findings add substantially to current knowledge in sub-Saharan Africa, providing important evidence from which to prioritise disease interventions.

The Impact of the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Canine Rabies Control Efforts: A Mixed-Methods Study of Observations About the Present and Lessons for the Future

Achieving zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies has been set as a global target for 2030. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted essential health services across the world, with disproportionate impacts on Neglected Tropical Diseases. Through a mixed-method study using stakeholder questionnaires and in-depth interviews, we examined the scale and nature of disruption from the first year of the pandemic to rabies control programs, and reflected on lessons for the future. Study participants included practitioners and policymakers working in government, academia, international organizations, and the pharmaceutical industry across 48 countries, mainly in Africa and Asia. Mass dog vaccination, essential to rabies control, was most heavily impacted and in 2020, was carried out as planned in just 5% of surveyed countries. Access to post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) also decreased due to fear of COVID-19 infection and difficulties in reaching health care centers. Dog vaccination and PEP delivery suffered from disruptions to the importation and distribution of vaccines. School closures affected rabies awareness activities and, when public events moved online, they could not reach the most disadvantaged groups. Surveillance, already weak, was severely disrupted by movement restrictions which, together with reduced demand for PEP, exacerbated under-reporting. Participants reported growing complaints around free-roaming dogs, with numbers likely to have increased in some settings. In some countries, dog rabies outbreaks and human rabies cases were already ascribed to the pandemic, but further impacts are likely still to be realized. Meanwhile, decreased demand for PEP from COVID-19 constraints could lead to reduced procurement in future. In the wake of post-COVID-19 demands on health services, there is an opportunity for veterinary services to show leadership in progressing the Zero by 30 agenda, particularly in scaling up mass dog vaccination within and across countries, as well as potential to make better use of community-based vaccinators. Countries must further secure stable procurement of dog and human vaccines, classifying them as essential goods prioritized for import and where needed, through sharing of stocks. Dedicated telemedicine services also show promise, for example through fostering participatory disease surveillance, including Integrated Bite Case Management, and delivering up-to-date instructions on the closest sources of PEP.

Where Rabies Is Not a Disease. Bridging Healthworlds to Improve Mutual Understanding and Prevention of Rabies

Deeply embedded in local social, cultural, and religious settings, traditional healing is part of dog bite and rabies management in many rabies endemic countries. Faith healing, which usually encompasses a more holistic approach to health including physical, mental and social dimensions, is rare in the context of rabies. In Gujarat, Western India, the Hindu goddess Hadkai Mata is worshiped by low-caste communities as the Mother of Rabies in the event of a dog bite to a person or their livestock. This belief might influence people's attitudes and behaviors toward rabies prevention but has never been investigated. Through 31 in-depth interviews with healers and staff of Hadkai Mata temples, this paper explores the system of knowledge around dog and human rabies that is built and shared in these places of worship and healing. Qualitative and quantitative data were analyzed looking for convergences and divergences with the recently launched National Action Plan for dog-mediated Rabies Elimination. Results suggest that while the etiology of human rabies as a social illness is usually explained as the goddess's wish to correct misbehaving people and restore positive interpersonal relations, there is some appreciation for the biological processes of infection that lead to rabies as a physical disease. Hadkai Mata is believed to cure rabies if her patients undergo the necessary process of moral growth. Although conventional post-exposure prophylaxis is not opposed per se, it is often delayed by patients who seek traditional treatment first. Some reluctance was expressed toward mass dog vaccination because it is seen as an interference in how the goddess controls dogs, by enraging them-hence infecting them with rabies-and sending them to bite wrongdoers. Addressing these cultural perceptions is likely to be critical in achieving effective control of dog rabies in this region. The study highlights the value of multidisciplinary approaches in the control and elimination of rabies, as well as other zoonoses. This includes the importance of understanding different culturally- and religiously- mediated ways in which humans relate to animals; and looking for points of convergence and mutual understanding, upon which context-tailored, linguistically-accurate, locally acceptable, feasible and effective strategies can be designed.

Spread of Nontyphoidal Salmonella in the Beef Supply Chain in Northern Tanzania: Sensitivity in a Probabilistic Model Integrating Microbiological Data and Data from Stakeholder Interviews

East Africa is a hotspot for foodborne diseases, including infection by nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS), a zoonotic pathogen that may originate from livestock. Urbanization and increased demand for animal protein drive intensification of livestock production and food processing, creating risks and opportunities for food safety. We built a probabilistic mathematical model, informed by prior beliefs and dedicated stakeholder interviews and microbiological research, to describe sources and prevalence of NTS along the beef supply chain in Moshi, Tanzania. The supply chain was conceptualized using a bow tie model, with terminal livestock markets as pinch point, and a forked pathway postmarket to compare traditional and emerging supply chains. NTS was detected in 36 (7.7%) of 467 samples throughout the supply chain. After combining prior belief and observational data, marginal estimates of true NTS prevalence were 4% in feces of cattle entering the beef supply and 20% in raw meat at butcheries. Based on our model and sensitivity analyses, true NTS prevalence was not significantly different between supply chains. Environmental contamination, associated with butchers and vendors, was estimated to be the most likely source of NTS in meat for human consumption. The model provides a framework for assessing the origin and propagation of NTS along meat supply chains. It can be used to inform decision making when economic factors cause changes in beef production and consumption, such as where to target interventions to reduce risks to consumers. Through sensitivity and value of information analyses, the model also helps to prioritize investment in additional research.

Rabies shows how scale of transmission can enable acute infections to persist at low prevalence

How acute pathogens persist and what curtails their epidemic growth in the absence of acquired immunity remains unknown. Canine rabies is a fatal zoonosis that circulates endemically at low prevalence among domestic dogs in low- and middle-income countries. We traced rabies transmission in a population of 50,000 dogs in Tanzania from 2002 to 2016 and applied individual-based models to these spatially resolved data to investigate the mechanisms modulating transmission and the scale over which they operate. Although rabies prevalence never exceeded 0.15%, the best-fitting models demonstrated appreciable depletion of susceptible animals that occurred at local scales because of clusters of deaths and dogs already incubating infection. Individual variation in rabid dog behavior facilitated virus dispersal and cocirculation of virus lineages, enabling metapopulation persistence. These mechanisms have important implications for prediction and control of pathogens that circulate in spatially structured populations.

“Using the same hand”: The complex local perceptions of integrated one health based interventions in East Africa

Background

Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) such as soil transmitted helminths (STH) and human rabies represent a significant burden to health in East Africa. Control and elimination remains extremely challenging, particularly in remote communities. Novel approaches, such as One Health based integrated interventions, are gaining prominence, yet there is more to be learned about the ways in which social determinants affect such programmes.

Methodology

In 2015 a mixed method qualitative study was conducted in northern Tanzania to determine community perceptions towards integrated delivery of two distinct healthcare interventions: treatment of children for STH and dog vaccination for rabies. In order to assess the effectiveness of the integrated approach, villages were randomly allocated to one of three intervention arms: i) Arm A received integrated mass drug administration (MDA) for STH and mass dog rabies vaccination (MDRV); ii) Arm B received MDA only; iii) Arm C received MDRV only.

Principle findings

Integrated interventions were looked upon favourably by communities with respondents in all arms stating that they were more likely to either get their dogs vaccinated if child deworming was delivered at the same time and vice versa. Participants appreciated integrated interventions, due to time and cost savings and increased access to essential health care. Analysis of qualitative data allowed deeper exploration of responses, revealing why people appreciated these benefits as well as constraints and barriers to participation in integrated programmes.

Conclusions/significance

An interdisciplinary One Health approach that incorporates qualitative social science can provide key insights into complex local perceptions for integrated health service delivery for STH and human rabies. This includes providing insights into how interventions can be improved while acknowledging and addressing critical issues around awareness, participation and underlying health disparities in remote pastoralist communities.

Rabies and the pandemic: lessons for One Health

This article examines the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on dog-mediated rabies, a neglected tropical disease that remains endemic in >65 countries. A globally agreed strategy for rabies elimination is underpinned by a One Health approach, coordinating human and animal health sectors and engaging communities. We present data on the scale and nature of COVID-19 disruption to rabies control programmes and the wider learning for One Health implementation. We argue that the global shift in health priorities caused by the pandemic, and consequent side-lining of animal health, will have broader ramifications for One Health implementation and preparedness for future emergent zoonoses.

Scaling-up the delivery of dog vaccination campaigns against rabies in Tanzania

An increasing number of countries are committing to meet the global target to eliminate human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030. Mass dog vaccination is central to this strategy. To interrupt rabies transmission from dogs to humans, the World Health Organization recommends that vaccination campaigns should be carried out every year in all dog-owning communities vaccinating 70% of their susceptible dogs. Monitoring and evaluation of dog vaccination campaigns are needed to measure progress towards elimination. In this study, we measured the delivery performance of large-scale vaccination campaigns implemented in 25 districts in south-east Tanzania from 2010 until 2017. We used regression modelling to infer the factors associated with, and potentially influencing the successful delivery of vaccination campaigns. During 2010–2017, five rounds of vaccination campaigns were carried out, vaccinating in total 349,513 dogs in 2,066 administrative vaccination units (rural villages or urban wards). Progressively more dogs were vaccinated over the successive campaigns. The campaigns did not reach all vaccination units each year, with only 16–28% of districts achieving 100% campaign completeness (where all units were vaccinated). During 2013–2017 when vaccination coverage was monitored, approximately 20% of vaccination units achieved the recommended 70% coverage, with average coverage around 50%. Campaigns were also not completed at annual intervals, with the longest interval between campaigns being 27 months. Our analysis revealed that districts with higher budgets generally achieved higher completeness, with a twofold difference in district budget increasing the odds of a vaccination unit being reached by a campaign by slightly more than twofold (OR: 2.29; 95% CI: 1.69–3.09). However, higher budgets did not necessarily result in higher coverage within vaccination units that were reached. We recommend national programs regularly monitor and evaluate the performance of their vaccination campaigns, so as to identify factors hindering their effective delivery and to guide remedial action.

Globally there are approximately 59,000 annual human rabies deaths, with more than 99% of these resulting from dog-mediated rabies. Mass dog vaccination is known to be the cornerstone of effective control of dog rabies. Empirical and theoretical evidence shows that annual vaccination campaigns need to achieve 70% coverage of the susceptible dog population to interrupt transmission and ensure the dog population is protected until the next campaign. Recently, international organizations announced their commitment to reaching the global target of zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030. Scaling-up of vaccinations is now underway in more than 100 rabies-endemic countries. However, there are operational and logistical challenges associated with scaling-up these operations in different geographical and cultural settings. This study monitored and evaluated the performance large-scale vaccinations in Tanzania. We found that vaccinations were not implemented in all villages, which resulted in coverage gaps. Additionally, vaccinations were not implemented annually and, as a result, coverage dropped below the critical vaccination threshold. We conclude that there is a need to improve the delivery of dog vaccinations for achieving the global target of zero dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030.

Incidence Estimates of Acute Q Fever and Spotted Fever Group Rickettsioses, Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, from 2007 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2014

Q fever and spotted fever group rickettsioses (SFGR) are common causes of severe febrile illness in northern Tanzania. Incidence estimates are needed to characterize the disease burden. Using hybrid surveillance—coupling case-finding at two referral hospitals and healthcare utilization data—we estimated the incidences of acute Q fever and SFGR in Moshi, Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, from 2007 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2014. Cases were defined as fever and a four-fold or greater increase in antibody titers of acute and convalescent paired sera according to the indirect immunofluorescence assay of Coxiella burnetii phase II antigen for acute Q fever and Rickettsia conorii (2007–2008) or Rickettsia africae (2012–2014) antigens for SFGR. Healthcare utilization data were used to adjust for underascertainment of cases by sentinel surveillance. For 2007 to 2008, among 589 febrile participants, 16 (4.7%) of 344 and 27 (8.8%) of 307 participants with paired serology had Q fever and SFGR, respectively. Adjusted annual incidence estimates of Q fever and SFGR were 80 (uncertainty range, 20–454) and 147 (uncertainty range, 52–645) per 100,000 persons, respectively. For 2012 to 2014, among 1,114 febrile participants, 52 (8.1%) and 57 (8.9%) of 641 participants with paired serology had Q fever and SFGR, respectively. Adjusted annual incidence estimates of Q fever and SFGR were 56 (uncertainty range, 24–163) and 75 (uncertainty range, 34–176) per 100,000 persons, respectively. We found substantial incidences of acute Q fever and SFGR in northern Tanzania during both study periods. To our knowledge, these are the first incidence estimates of either disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings suggest that control measures for these infections warrant consideration.

Post COVID-19: a solution scan of options for preventing future zoonotic epidemics

The crisis generated by the emergence and pandemic spread of COVID-19 has thrown into the global spotlight the dangers associated with novel diseases, as well as the key role of animals, especially wild animals, as potential sources of pathogens to humans. There is a widespread demand for a new relationship with wild and domestic animals, including suggested bans on hunting, wildlife trade, wet markets or consumption of wild animals. However, such policies risk ignoring essential elements of the problem as well as alienating and increasing hardship for local communities across the world, and might be unachievable at scale. There is thus a need for a more complex package of policy and practical responses. We undertook a solution scan to identify and collate 161 possible options for reducing the risks of further epidemic disease transmission from animals to humans, including potential further SARS-CoV-2 transmission (original or variants). We include all categories of animals in our responses (i.e. wildlife, captive, unmanaged/feral and domestic livestock and pets) and focus on pathogens (especially viruses) that, once transmitted from animals to humans, could acquire epidemic potential through high rates of human-to-human transmission. This excludes measures to prevent well-known zoonotic diseases, such as rabies, that cannot readily transmit between humans. We focused solutions on societal measures, excluding the development of vaccines and other preventive therapeutic medicine and veterinary medicine options that are discussed elsewhere. We derived our solutions through reading the scientific literature, NGO position papers, and industry guidelines, collating our own experiences, and consulting experts in different fields. Herein, we review the major zoonotic transmission pathways and present an extensive list of options. The potential solutions are organised according to the key stages of the trade chain and encompass solutions that can be applied at the local, regional and international scales. This is a set of options targeted at practitioners and policy makers to encourage careful examination of possible courses of action, validating their impact and documenting outcomes.

"He Who Relies on His Brother's Property Dies Poor": The Complex Narratives of Livestock Care in Northern Tanzania

Background: Endemic zoonoses have important impacts for livestock-dependent households in East Africa. In these communities, people's health and livelihoods are severely affected by livestock disease losses. Understanding how livestock keepers undertake remedial actions for livestock illness has the potential for widespread benefits such as improving health interventions. Yet, studies about livestock and human health behaviours in the global south tend to focus on individual health choices. In reality, health behaviours are complex, and not solely about individualised health experiences. Rather, they are mediated by a range of “upstream” factors (such as unequal provision of services), which are beyond the control of the individual.

Methods: This paper presents qualitative research conducted from 2014 to 2019 for a study focused on the Social, Economic, and Environmental Drivers of Zoonoses in Tanzania (SEEDZ). Qualitative data were collected via focus group discussions, community meetings, informal interviews, formal in-depth interviews, observations and surveys that addressed issues of health, disease, zoonotic disease risks, and routes for treatment across 21 villages. Thematic analysis was carried out on in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. Conceptual analyses and observations were made through application of social science theories of health.

Findings: Livestock keepers undertake a range of health seeking strategies loosely categorised around self and formal treatment. Two key themes emerged that are central to why people make the decisions they do: access to resources and trust in health care providers. These two issues affect individual sense of agency which impacts their ability to act to improve livestock health outcomes. We suggest that individual choice and agency in veterinary health seeking decisions are only beneficial if health systems can offer adequate care and health equity is addressed.

Significance: This study demonstrates the value of in-depth qualitative research which reveals the nuance and complexity of people's decisions around livestock health. Most importantly, it explains why “better” knowledge does not always translate into “better” practise. The paper suggests that acknowledging and addressing these aspects of veterinary health seeking will lead to more effective provision.

African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV): Biology, Genomics and Genotypes Circulating in Sub-Saharan Africa

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly infectious and fatal haemorrhagic disease of pigs that is caused by a complex DNA virus of the genus Asfivirus and Asfarviridae African suids family. The disease is among the most devastating pig diseases worldwide including Africa. Although the disease was first reported in the 19th century, it has continued to spread in Africa and other parts of the world. Globally, the rising demand for pork and concomitant increase in transboundary movements of pigs and pork products is likely to increase the risk of transmission and spread of ASF and pose a major challenge to the pig industry. Different genotypes of the ASF virus (ASFV) with varying virulence have been associated with different outbreaks in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and worldwide, and understanding genotype circulation will be important for ASF prevention and control strategies. ASFV genotypes unique to Africa have also been reported in SSA. This review briefly recounts the biology, genomics and genotyping of ASFV and provides an account of the different genotypes circulating in SSA. The review also highlights prevention, control and progress on vaccine development and identifies gaps in knowledge of ASFV genotype circulation in SSA that need to be addressed.

Reservoir dynamics of rabies in south-east Tanzania and the roles of cross-species transmission and domestic dog vaccination

Understanding the role of different species in the transmission of multi-host pathogens, such as rabies virus, is vital for effective control strategies. Across most of sub-Saharan Africa domestic dogs Canis familiaris are considered the reservoir for rabies, but the role of wildlife has been long debated. Here we explore the multi-host transmission dynamics of rabies across south-east Tanzania.Between January 2011 and July 2019, data on probable rabies cases were collected in the regions of Lindi and Mtwara. Hospital records of animal-bite patients presenting to healthcare facilities were used as sentinels for animal contact tracing. The timing, location and species of probable rabid animals were used to reconstruct transmission trees to infer who infected whom and the relative frequencies of within- and between-species transmission.During the study, 688 probable human rabies exposures were identified, resulting in 47 deaths. Of these exposures, 389 were from domestic dogs (56.5%) and 262 from jackals (38.1%). Over the same period, 549 probable animal rabies cases were traced: 303 in domestic dogs (55.2%) and 221 in jackals (40.3%), with the remainder in domestic cats and other wildlife species.Although dog-to-dog transmission was most commonly inferred (40.5% of transmission events), a third of inferred events involved wildlife-to-wildlife transmission (32.6%), and evidence suggested some sustained transmission chains within jackal populations.A steady decline in probable rabies cases in both humans and animals coincided with the implementation of widespread domestic dog vaccination during the first 6 years of the study. Following the lapse of this program, dog rabies cases began to increase in one of the northernmost districts. Synthesis and applications. In south-east Tanzania, despite a relatively high incidence of rabies in wildlife and evidence of wildlife-to-wildlife transmission, domestic dogs remain essential to the reservoir of infection. Continued dog vaccination alongside improved surveillance would allow a fuller understanding of the role of wildlife in maintaining transmission in this area. Nonetheless, dog vaccination clearly suppressed rabies in both domestic dog and wildlife populations, reducing both public health and conservation risks and, if sustained, has potential to eliminate rabies from this region.

How can we realise the full potential of animal health systems for delivering development and health outcomes?

Animal health services play an essential role in supporting livestock production, with the potential to address the challenges of hunger, poverty, health, social justice and environmental health as part of the path towards the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) defined in the United Nations, 2030 Agenda. However, the provision of animal health services remains chronically underfunded. Although the aspiration that ‘no one will be left behind' is core to the SDG agenda, animal health service provision still fails to meet the basic needs of many of the poorest livestock owners. This review draws largely on experience from Tanzania and highlights the obstacles to equitable provision of animal health services, as well as identifying opportunities for improvement. Delivery models that rely on owners paying for services, whether through the private sector or public?private partnerships, can be effective for diseases that are of clear economic importance to animal keepers, particularly in more market-orientated production systems, but are currently constrained by issues of access, affordability, availability and quality. Substantial challenges remain when attempting to control diseases that exert a major burden on animal or human health but are less well recognised, as well as in the delivery of veterinary public health or other public good interventions. Here, the authors propose solutions that focus on: improving awareness of the potential for animal health services to address the SDGs, particularly those concerning public and environmental health; linking this more explicitly with advocacy for increased investment; ensuring that the voices of stakeholders are heard, particularly those of the rural poor; and embracing a cross-cutting and expanded vision for animal health services to support more adaptive development of livestock systems.

Latent class evaluation of the performance of serological tests for exposure to Brucella spp. in cattle, sheep, and goats in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Brucellosis is a neglected zoonosis endemic in many countries, including regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Evaluated diagnostic tools for the detection of exposure to Brucella spp. are important for disease surveillance and guiding prevention and control activities.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Bayesian latent class analysis was used to evaluate performance of the Rose Bengal plate test (RBT) and a competitive ELISA (cELISA) in detecting Brucella spp. exposure at the individual animal-level for cattle, sheep, and goats in Tanzania. Median posterior estimates of RBT sensitivity were: 0.779 (95% Bayesian credibility interval (BCI): 0.570-0.894), 0.893 (0.636-0.989), and 0.807 (0.575-0.966), and for cELISA were: 0.623 (0.443-0.790), 0.409 (0.241-0.644), and 0.561 (0.376-0.713), for cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. Sensitivity BCIs were wide, with the widest for cELISA in sheep. RBT and cELISA median posterior estimates of specificity were high across species models: RBT ranged between 0.989 (0.980-0.998) and 0.995 (0.985-0.999), and cELISA between 0.984 (0.974-0.995) and 0.996 (0.988-1). Each species model generated seroprevalence estimates for two livestock subpopulations, pastoralist and non-pastoralist. Pastoralist seroprevalence estimates were: 0.063 (0.045-0.090), 0.033 (0.018-0.049), and 0.051 (0.034-0.076), for cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. Non-pastoralist seroprevalence estimates were below 0.01 for all species models. Series and parallel diagnostic approaches were evaluated. Parallel outperformed a series approach. Median posterior estimates for parallel testing were ≥0.920 (0.760-0.986) for sensitivity and ≥0.973 (0.955-0.992) for specificity, for all species models.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that Brucella spp. surveillance in Tanzania using RBT and cELISA in parallel at the animal-level would give high test performance. There is a need to evaluate strategies for implementing parallel testing at the herd- and flock-level. Our findings can assist in generating robust Brucella spp. exposure estimates for livestock in Tanzania and wider sub-Saharan Africa. The adoption of locally evaluated robust diagnostic tests in setting-specific surveillance is an important step towards brucellosis prevention and control.

Post COVID-19: a solution scan of options for preventing future zoonotic epidemics

The crisis generated by the emergence and pandemic spread of COVID-19 has thrown into the global spotlight the dangers associated with novel diseases, as well as the key role of animals, especially wild animals, as potential sources of pathogens to humans. There is a widespread demand for a new relationship with wild and domestic animals, including suggested bans on hunting, wildlife trade, wet markets or consumption of wild animals. However, such policies risk ignoring essential elements of the problem as well as alienating and increasing hardship for local communities across the world, and might be unachievable at scale. There is thus a need for a more complex package of policy and practical responses. We undertook a solution scan to identify and collate 161 possible options for reducing the risks of further epidemic disease transmission from animals to humans, including potential further SARS-CoV-2 transmission (original or variants). We include all categories of animals in our responses (i.e. wildlife, captive, unmanaged/feral and domestic livestock and pets) and focus on pathogens (especially viruses) that, once transmitted from animals to humans, could acquire epidemic potential through high rates of human-to-human transmission. This excludes measures to prevent well-known zoonotic diseases, such as rabies, that cannot readily transmit between humans. We focused solutions on societal measures, excluding the development of vaccines and other preventive therapeutic medicine and veterinary medicine options that are discussed elsewhere. We derived our solutions through reading the scientific literature, NGO position papers, and industry guidelines, collating our own experiences, and consulting experts in different fields. Herein, we review the major zoonotic transmission pathways and present an extensive list of options. The potential solutions are organised according to the key stages of the trade chain and encompass solutions that can be applied at the local, regional and international scales. This is a set of options targeted at practitioners and policy makers to encourage careful examination of possible courses of action, validating their impact and documenting outcomes.

One Health for neglected tropical diseases

The forthcoming World Health Organization road map for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) 2021–2030 recognises the complexity surrounding control and elimination of these 20 diseases of poverty. It emphasises the need for a paradigm shift from disease-specific interventions to holistic cross-cutting approaches coordinating with adjacent disciplines. The One Health approach exemplifies this shift, extending beyond a conventional model of zoonotic disease control to consider the interactions of human and animal health systems within their shared environment and the wider social and economic context. This approach can also promote sustainability and resilience within these systems. To achieve the global ambition on NTD elimination and control, political will, along with contextualised innovative scientific strategies, is required.

The first genotype II African swine fever virus isolated in Africa provides insight into the current Eurasian pandemic

African swine fever (ASF) caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV) is ranked by OIE as the most important source of mortality in domestic pigs globally and is indigenous to African wild suids and soft ticks. Despite two ASFV genotypes causing economically devastating epidemics outside the continent since 1961, there have been no genome-level analyses of virus evolution in Africa. The virus was recently transported from south-eastern Africa to Georgia in 2007 and has subsequently spread to Russia, eastern Europe, China, and south-east Asia with devastating socioeconomic consequences. To date, two of the 24 currently described ASFV genotypes defined by sequencing of the p72 gene, namely genotype I and II, have been reported outside Africa, with genotype II being responsible for the ongoing pig pandemic. Multiple complete genotype II genome sequences have been reported from European, Russian and Chinese virus isolates but no complete genome sequences have yet been reported from Africa. We report herein the complete genome of a Tanzanian genotype II isolate, Tanzania/Rukwa/2017/1, collected in 2017 and determined using an Illumina short read strategy. The Tanzania/Rukwa/2017/1 sequence is 183,186 bp in length (in a single contig) and contains 188 open reading frames. Considering only un-gapped sites in the pairwise alignments, the new sequence has 99.961% identity with the updated Georgia 2007/1 reference isolate (FR682468.2), 99.960% identity with Polish isolate Pol16_29413_o23 (MG939586) and 99.957% identity with Chinese isolate ASFV-wbBS01 (MK645909.1). This represents 73 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) relative to the Polish isolate and 78 SNPs with the Chinese genome. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that Tanzania/Rukwa/2017/1 clusters most closely with Georgia 2007/1. The majority of the differences between Tanzania/Rukwa/2017/1 and Georgia 2007/1 genotype II genomes are insertions/deletions (indels) as is typical for ASFV. The indels included differences in the length and copy number of the terminal multicopy gene families, MGF 360 and 110. The Rukwa2017/1 sequence is the first complete genotype II genome from a precisely mapped locality in Africa, since the exact origin of Georgia2007/1 is unknown. It therefore provides baseline information for future analyses of the diversity and phylogeography of this globally important genetic sub-group of ASF viruses.

Classification and characterisation of livestock production systems in northern Tanzania

Livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa face a range of pressures, including climate change, land loss, restrictive policies, and population increase. Widespread adaptation in response can lead to the emergence of new, non-traditional typologies of livestock production. We sought to characterise livestock production systems in two administrative regions in northern Tanzania, an area undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change. Questionnaire and spatial data were collected from 404 livestock-keeping households in 21 villages in Arusha and Manyara Regions in 2016. Multiple factor analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to classify households into livestock production systems based on household-level characteristics. Adversity-based indicators of vulnerability, including reports of hunger, illness, and livestock, land and crop losses were compared between production systems. Three distinct clusters emerged through this process. The ethnic, environmental and livestock management characteristics of households in each cluster broadly mapped onto traditional definitions of 'pastoral', 'agro-pastoral' and 'smallholder' livestock production in the study area, suggesting that this quantitative classification system is complementary to more qualitative classification methods. Our approach allowed us to demonstrate a diversity in typologies of livestock production at small spatial scales, with almost half of study villages comprising more than one production system. We also found indicators of change within livestock production systems, most notably the adoption of crop agriculture in the majority of pastoral households. System-level heterogeneities in vulnerability were evident, with agro-pastoral households most likely to report hunger and pastoral households most likely to report illness in people and livestock, and livestock losses. We demonstrate that livestock production systems can provide context for assessing household vulnerability in northern Tanzania. Policy initiatives to improve household and community well-being should recognise the continuing diversity of traditional livestock production systems in northern Tanzania, including the diversity that can exist at small spatial scales.

Distemper, extinction, and vaccination of the Amur tiger

Canine distemper virus (CDV) has recently emerged as an extinction threat for the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica). CDV is vaccine-preventable, and control strategies could require vaccination of domestic dogs and/or wildlife populations. However, vaccination of endangered wildlife remains controversial, which has led to a focus on interventions in domestic dogs, often assumed to be the source of infection. Effective decision making requires an understanding of the true reservoir dynamics, which poses substantial challenges in remote areas with diverse host communities. We carried out serological, demographic, and phylogenetic studies of dog and wildlife populations in the Russian Far East to show that a number of wildlife species are more important than dogs, both in maintaining CDV and as sources of infection for tigers. Critically, therefore, because CDV circulates among multiple wildlife sources, dog vaccination alone would not be effective at protecting tigers. We show, however, that low-coverage vaccination of tigers themselves is feasible and would produce substantive reductions in extinction risks. Vaccination of endangered wildlife provides a valuable component of conservation strategies for endangered species.

Farm-Level Risk Factors of Increased Abortion and Mortality in Domestic Ruminants during the 2010 Rift Valley Fever Outbreak in Central South Africa

(1) Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in domestic ruminants have severe socio-economic impacts. Climate-based continental predictions providing early warnings to regions at risk for RVF outbreaks are not of a high enough resolution for ruminant owners to assess their individual risk. (2) Methods: We analyzed risk factors for RVF occurrence and severity at the farm level using the number of domestic ruminant deaths and abortions reported by farmers in central South Africa during the 2010 RVF outbreaks using a Bayesian multinomial hurdle framework. (3) Results: We found strong support that the proportion of days with precipitation, the number of water sources, and the proportion of goats in the herd were positively associated with increased severity of RVF (the numbers of deaths and abortions). We did not find an association between any risk factors and whether RVF was reported on farms. (4) Conclusions: At the farm level we identified risk factors of RVF severity; however, there was little support for risk factors of RVF occurrence. The identification of farm-level risk factors for Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) occurrence would support and potentially improve current prediction methods and would provide animal owners with critical information needed in order to assess their herd's risk of RVFV infection.

Molecular Detection and Typing of Pathogenic Leptospira in Febrile Patients and Phylogenetic Comparison with Leptospira Detected among Animals in Tanzania

Molecular data are required to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of leptospirosis in Africa and to identify sources of human infection. We applied molecular methods to identify the infecting Leptospira species and genotypes among patients hospitalized with fever in Tanzania and compared these with Leptospira genotypes detected among animals in Tanzania to infer potential sources of human infection. We performed lipL32 real-time PCR to detect the presence of pathogenic Leptospira in acute-phase plasma, serum, and urine samples obtained from study participants with serologically confirmed leptospirosis and participants who had died with febrile illness. Leptospira blood culture was also performed. In positive specimens, we performed species-specific PCR and compared participant Leptospira secY sequences with Leptospira reference sequences and sequences previously obtained from animals in Tanzania. We detected Leptospira DNA in four (3.6%) of 111 participant blood samples. We detected Leptospira borgpetersenii (one participant, 25.0%), Leptospira interrogans (one participant, 25.0%), and Leptospira kirschneri (one participant, 25.0%) (one [25%] undetermined). Phylogenetic comparison of secY sequence from the L. borgpetersenii and L. kirschneri genotypes detected from participants was closely related to but distinct from genotypes detected among local livestock species. Our results indicate that a diverse range of Leptospira species is causing human infection. Although our analysis suggests a close relationship between Leptospira genotypes found in people and livestock, continued efforts are needed to obtain more Leptospira genetic material from human leptospirosis cases to help prioritize Leptospira species and genotypes for control.

Peste des petits ruminants Virus Transmission Scaling and Husbandry Practices That Contribute to Increased Transmission Risk: An Investigation among Sheep, Goats, and Cattle in Northern Tanzania

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes an infectious disease of high morbidity and mortality among sheep and goats which impacts millions of livestock keepers globally. PPRV transmission risk varies by production system, but a deeper understanding of how transmission scales in these systems and which husbandry practices impact risk is needed. To investigate transmission scaling and husbandry practice-associated risk, this study combined 395 household questionnaires with over 7115 cross-sectional serosurvey samples collected in Tanzania among agropastoral and pastoral households managing sheep, goats, or cattle (most managed all three, n = 284, 71.9%). Although self-reported compound-level herd size was significantly larger in pastoral than agropastoral households, the data show no evidence that household herd force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) increased with herd size. Seroprevalence and FOI patterns observed at the sub-village level showed significant spatial variation in FOI. Univariate analyses showed that household herd FOI was significantly higher when households reported seasonal grazing camp attendance, cattle or goat introduction to the compound, death, sale, or giving away of animals in the past 12 months, when cattle were grazed separately from sheep and goats, and when the household also managed dogs or donkeys. Multivariable analyses revealed that species, production system type, and goat or sheep introduction or seasonal grazing camp attendance, cattle or goat death or sales, or goats given away in the past 12 months significantly increased odds of seroconversion, whereas managing pigs or cattle attending seasonal grazing camps had significantly lower odds of seroconversion. Further research should investigate specific husbandry practices across production systems in other countries and in systems that include additional atypical host species to broaden understanding of PPRV transmission.

Detection of African swine fever virus genotype XV in a sylvatic cycle in Saadani National Park, Tanzania

African swine fever (ASF) is a severe haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs caused by ASF virus (ASFV). ASFV is transmitted by soft ticks (Ornithodoros moubata complex group) and by direct transmission. In Africa, ASF is maintained in transmission cycles of asymptomatic infection involving wild suids, mainly warthogs (Phacochoerus africanus). ASF outbreaks have been reported in many parts of Tanzania; however, active surveillance has been limited to pig farms in a few geographical locations. There is an information gap on whether and where the sylvatic cycle may occur independently of domestic pigs. To explore the existence of a sylvatic cycle in Saadani National Park in Tanzania, blood and serum samples were collected from 19 warthogs selected using convenience sampling along vehicle-accessible transects within the national park. The ticks were sampled from warthog burrows. Blood samples and ticks were subjected to ASFV molecular diagnosis (PCR) and genotyping, and warthog sera were subjected to serological (indirect ELISA) testing for ASFV antibody detection. All warthog blood samples were PCR-negative, but 16/19 (84%) of the warthog sera were seropositive by ELISA confirming exposure of warthogs to ASFV. Of the ticks sampled, 20/111 (18%) were positive for ASFV by conventional PCR. Sequencing of the p72 virus gene fragments showed that ASF viruses detected in ticks belonged to genotype XV. The results confirm the existence of a sylvatic cycle of ASFV in Saadani National Park, Tanzania, that involves ticks and warthogs independent of domestic pigs. Our findings suggest that genotype XV previously reported in 2008 in Tanzania is likely to be widely distributed and involved in both wild and domestic infection cycles. Whole-genome sequencing and analysis of the ASFV genotype XV circulating in Tanzania is recommended to determine the phylogeny of the viruses.

Investigating the meat pathway as a source of human nontyphoidal Salmonella bloodstream infections and diarrhea in East Africa

Background

Salmonella Enteritidis and Salmonella Typhimurium are major causes of bloodstream infection and diarrheal disease in East Africa. Sources of human infection, including the role of the meat pathway, are poorly understood.

Methods

We collected cattle, goat, and poultry meat pathway samples from December 2015 through August 2017 in Tanzania and isolated Salmonella using standard methods. Meat pathway isolates were compared with nontyphoidal serovars of Salmonella enterica (NTS) isolated from persons with bloodstream infections and diarrheal disease from 2007 through 2017 from Kenya by core genome multi-locus sequence typing (cgMLST). Isolates were characterized for antimicrobial resistance, virulence genes, and diversity.

Results

We isolated NTS from 164 meat pathway samples. Of 172 human NTS isolates, 90 (52.3%) from stool and 82 (47.7%) from blood, 53 (30.8%) were Salmonella Enteritidis sequence type (ST) 11 and 62 (36.0%) were Salmonella Typhimurium ST313. We identified cgMLST clusters within Salmonella Enteritidis ST11, Salmonella Heidelberg ST15, Salmonella Typhimurium ST19, and Salmonella II 42:r:- ST1208 that included both human and meat pathway isolates. Salmonella Typhimurium ST313 was isolated exclusively from human samples. Human and poultry isolates bore more antimicrobial resistance and virulence genes and were less diverse than isolates from other sources.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the meat pathway may be an important source of human infection with some clades of Salmonella Enteritidis ST11 in East Africa, but not of human infection by Salmonella Typhimurium ST313. Research is needed to systematically examine the contributions of other types of meat, animal products, produce, water, and the environment to nontyphoidal Salmonella disease in East Africa.

Meat Safety in Northern Tanzania: Inspectors' and Slaughter Workers' Risk Perceptions and Management

Through a social scientific lens, this paper considers the risk perceptions and "risk-based decision-making" of two key groups in a northern Tanzanian context: (1) frontline government meat inspectors and health officers charged with ensuring that red meat sold commercially is safe for people to consume, and (2) the workers who slaughter and process cattle and red meat prior to its sale in rural butcheries. In contrast to techno-scientific understandings of disease risk and "rational" approaches to its management, this paper foregrounds the role of social, economic and institutional context in shaping the perceptions and practices around meat safety of these actors whose daily, close proximity to meat means they play a significant role in mitigating potential meat-borne disease. We show how limited resources, and a combination of scientific and local knowledge and norms result in "situated expertise" and particular forms of risk perception and practice which both enhance and compromise meat safety in different ways. Actors' shared concerns with what is visible, ensures that visibly unsafe or abnormal meat is excluded from sale, and that infrastructure and meat is kept "clean" and free of certain visible contaminants such as soil or, on occasion, feces. While such contaminants serve as a good proxy for pathogen presence, meat inspectors and especially slaughter workers were much less aware of or concerned with invisible pathogens that may compromise meat safety. The role of process and meat handling did not figure very strongly in their concerns. Microorganisms such as Salmonella and Campylobacter, which can easily be transferred onto meat and persist in slaughter and meat sale environments, went unacknowledged. Although health officers expressed more concern with hygiene and meat handling, their influence over slaughter process and butchery operations was unclear. Ultimately, recognizing the perceptions and practices of frontline actors who engage with meat, and the ways in which social, material and institutional realities shape these, is important for understanding how decisions about risk and meat safety are made in the complexity and context of everyday life, and thus for finding effective ways to support them to further enhance their work.

Cross-species transmission and evolutionary dynamics of canine distemper virus during a spillover in African lions of Serengeti National Park

The outcome of pathogen spillover from a reservoir to a novel host population can range from a "dead-end" when there is no onward transmission in the recipient population, to epidemic spread and even establishment in new hosts. Understanding the evolutionary epidemiology of spillover events leading to discrete outcomes in novel hosts is key to predicting risk and can lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms of emergence. Here we use a Bayesian phylodynamic approach to examine cross-species transmission and evolutionary dynamics during a canine distemper virus (CDV) spillover event causing clinical disease and population decline in an African lion population (Panthera leo) in the Serengeti Ecological Region between 1993 and 1994. Using 21 near-complete viral genomes from four species we found that this large-scale outbreak was likely  ignited by a single cross-species spillover event from a canid reservoir to noncanid hosts <1 year before disease detection and explosive spread of CDV in lions. Cross-species transmission from other noncanid species probably fuelled the high prevalence of CDV across spatially structured lion prides. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) could have acted as the proximate source of CDV exposure in lions. We report 13 nucleotide substitutions segregating CDV strains found in canids and noncanids. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that virus evolution played a role in CDV emergence in noncanid hosts following spillover during the outbreak, suggest that host barriers to clinical infection can limit outcomes of CDV spillover in novel host species.

Estimating acute human leptospirosis incidence in northern Tanzania using sentinel site and community behavioural surveillance

Many infectious diseases lack robust estimates of incidence from endemic areas, and extrapolating incidence when there are few locations with data remains a major challenge in burden of disease estimation. We sought to combine sentinel surveillance with community behavioural surveillance to estimate leptospirosis incidence. We administered a questionnaire gathering responses on established locally relevant leptospirosis risk factors and recent fever to livestock-owning community members across six districts in northern Tanzania and applied a logistic regression model predicting leptospirosis risk on the basis of behavioural factors that had been previously developed among patients with fever in Moshi Municipal and Moshi Rural Districts. We aggregated probability of leptospirosis by district and estimated incidence in each district by standardizing probabilities to those previously estimated for Moshi Districts. We recruited 286 community participants: Hai District (n = 11), Longido District (59), Monduli District (56), Moshi Municipal District (103), Moshi Rural District (44) and Rombo District (13). The mean predicted probability of leptospirosis by district was Hai 0.029 (0.005, 0.095), Longido 0.071 (0.009, 0.235), Monduli 0.055 (0.009, 0.206), Moshi Rural 0.014 (0.002, 0.049), Moshi Municipal 0.015 (0.004, 0.048) and Rombo 0.031 (0.006, 0.121). We estimated the annual incidence (upper and lower bounds of estimate) per 100,000 people of human leptospirosis among livestock owners by district as Hai 35 (6, 114), Longido 85 (11, 282), Monduli 66 (11, 247), Moshi Rural 17 (2, 59), Moshi Municipal 18 (5, 58) and Rombo 47 (7, 145). Use of community behavioural surveillance may be a useful tool for extrapolating disease incidence beyond sentinel surveillance sites.

Analysing livestock network data for infectious disease control: an argument for routine data collection in emerging economies

Livestock movements are an important mechanism of infectious disease transmission. Where these are well recorded, network analysis tools have been used to successfully identify system properties, highlight vulnerabilities to transmission, and inform targeted surveillance and control. Here we highlight the main uses of network properties in understanding livestock disease epidemiology and discuss statistical approaches to infer network characteristics from biased or fragmented datasets. We use a 'hurdle model' approach that predicts (i) the probability of movement and (ii) the number of livestock moved to generate synthetic 'complete' networks of movements between administrative wards, exploiting routinely collected government movement permit data from northern Tanzania. We demonstrate that this model captures a significant amount of the observed variation. Combining the cattle movement network with a spatial between-ward contact layer, we create a multiplex, over which we simulated the spread of 'fast' ( R₀ = 3) and 'slow' ( R₀ = 1.5) pathogens, and assess the effects of random versus targeted disease control interventions (vaccination and movement ban). The targeted interventions substantially outperform those randomly implemented for both fast and slow pathogens. Our findings provide motivation to encourage routine collection and centralization of movement data to construct representative networks. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Meat Safety in Tanzania's Value Chain: Experiences, Explanations and Expectations in Butcheries and Eateries

Urbanisation is associated with changes in consumption patterns and food production processes. These patterns and processes can increase or decrease the risks of outbreaks of foodborne diseases and are generally accompanied by changes in food safety policies and regulations about food handling. This affects consumers, as well as people economically engaged in the food value chain. This study looks at Tanzania's red meat value chain-which in its totality involves about one third of the population-and focuses on the knowledge, attitudes and reported practices of operators of butcheries and eateries with regards to meat safety in an urban and in a rural environment. We interviewed 64 operators about their experiences with foodborne diseases and their explanations and expectations around meat safety, with a particular emphasis on how they understood their own actions regarding food safety risks vis-à-vis regulations. We found operators of eateries emphasising their own agency in keeping meat safe, whereas operators of butcheries-whose products are more closely inspected-relied more on official inspections. Looking towards meat safety in the future, interviewees in rural areas were, relative to their urban counterparts, more optimistic, which we attribute to rural operators' shorter and relatively unmediated value chains.

Prevalence of Campylobacter and Salmonella in African food animals and meat: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Campylobacter and Salmonella, particularly non-typhoidal Salmonella, are important bacterial enteric pathogens of humans which are often carried asymptomatically in animal reservoirs. Bacterial foodborne infections, including those derived from meat, are associated with illness and death globally but the burden is disproportionately high in Africa. Commercial meat production is increasing and intensifying in many African countries, creating opportunities and threats for food safety.

METHODS

Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we searched six databases for English language studies published through June 2016, that reported Campylobacter or Salmonella carriage or infection prevalence in food animals and contamination prevalence in food animal products from African countries. A random effects meta-analysis and multivariable logistic regression were used to estimate the species-specific prevalence of Salmonella and Campylobacter and assess relationships between sample type and region and the detection or isolation of either pathogen.

RESULTS

Seventy-three studies reporting Campylobacter and 187 studies reporting Salmonella across 27 African countries were represented. Adjusted prevalence calculations estimate Campylobacter detection in 37.7% (95% CI 31.6-44.3) of 11,828 poultry samples; 24.6% (95% CI 18.0-32.7) of 1975 pig samples; 17.8% (95% CI 12.6-24.5) of 2907 goat samples; 12.6% (95% CI 8.4-18.5) of 2382 sheep samples; and 12.3% (95% CI 9.5-15.8) of 6545 cattle samples. Salmonella were detected in 13.9% (95% CI 11.7-16.4) of 25,430 poultry samples; 13.1% (95% CI 9.3-18.3) of 5467 pig samples; 9.3% (95% CI 7.2-12.1) of 2988 camel samples; 5.3% (95% CI 4.0-6.8) of 72,292 cattle samples; 4.8% (95% CI 3.6-6.3) of 11,335 sheep samples; and 3.4% (95% CI 2.2-5.2) of 4904 goat samples. 'External' samples (e.g. hide, feathers) were significantly more likely to be contaminated by both pathogens than 'gut' (e.g. faeces, cloaca) while meat and organs were significantly less likely to be contaminated than gut samples.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated widespread prevalence of Campylobacter species and Salmonella serovars in African food animals and meat, particularly in samples of poultry and pig origin. Source attribution studies could help ascertain which food animals are contributing to human campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis and direct potential food safety interventions.

An integrated health delivery platform, targeting soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and canine mediated human rabies, results in cost savings and increased breadth of treatment for STH in remote communities in Tanzania

Background

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of a 90% reduction in neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) by 2030 requires innovative control strategies.

This proof-of-concept study examined the effectiveness of integrating control programs for two NTDs: mass drug administration (MDA) for soil-transmitted helminths in humans and mass dog rabies vaccination (MDRV).

Methods

The study was carried out in 24 Tanzanian villages. The primary goal was to demonstrate the feasibility of integrating community-wide MDA for STH and MDRV for rabies. The objectives were to investigate the popularity, participation and cost and time savings of integrated delivery, and to investigate the reach of the MDA with respect to primary school-aged children and other community members. To implement, we randomly allocated villages for delivery of MDA and MDRV (Arm A), MDA only (Arm B) or MDRV only (Arm C).

Results

Community support for the integrated delivery was strong (e.g. 85% of focus group discussions concluded that it would result in people getting “two for one” health treatments). A high proportion of households participated in the integrated Arm A events (81.7% MDA, 80.4% MDRV), and these proportions were similar to those in Arms B and C. These findings suggest that coverage might not be reduced when interventions are integrated. Moreover, in addition to time savings, integrated delivery resulted in a 33% lower cost per deworming dose and a 16% lower cost per rabies vaccination.

The median percentage of enrolled primary school children treated by this study was 76%. However, because 37% of the primary school aged children that received deworming treatment were not enrolled in school, we hypothesize that the employed strategy could reach more school-aged children than would be reached through a solely school-based delivery strategy.

Conclusions

Integrated delivery platforms for health interventions can be feasible, popular, cost and time saving. The insights gained could be applicable in areas of sub-Saharan Africa that are remote or underserved by health services. These results indicate the utility of integrated One Health delivery platforms and suggest an important role in the global campaign to reduce the burden of NTDs, especially in hard-to-reach communities.

Trial registration

clinicaltrials.gov NCT03667079, retrospectively registered 11th September 2018.

The Sero-epidemiology of Neospora caninum in Cattle in Northern Tanzania

Neospora caninum is a protozoan intracellular parasite of animals with a global distribution. Dogs act as definitive hosts, with infection in cattle leading to reproductive losses. Neosporosis can be a major source of income loss for livestock keepers, but its impacts in sub-Saharan Africa are mostly unknown. This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence and identify risk factors for N. caninum infection in cattle in northern Tanzania, and to link herd-level exposure to reproductive losses. Serum samples from 3,015 cattle were collected from 380 households in 20 villages between February and December 2016. Questionnaire data were collected from 360 of these households. Household coordinates were used to extract satellite derived environmental data from open-access sources. Sera were tested for the presence of N. caninum antibodies using an indirect ELISA. Risk factors for individual-level seropositivity were identified with logistic regression using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The relationship between herd-level seroprevalence and abortion rates was assessed using negative binomial regression. The seroprevalence of N. caninum exposure after adjustment for diagnostic test performance was 21.5% [95% Credibility Interval (CrI) 17.9-25.4]. The most important predictors of seropositivity selected by BMA were age greater than 18 months [Odds ratio (OR) = 2.17, 95% CrI 1.45-3.26], the local cattle population density (OR = 0.69, 95% CrI 0.41-1.00), household use of restricted grazing (OR = 0.72, 95% CrI 0.25-1.16), and an increasing percentage cover of shrub or forest land in the environment surrounding a household (OR = 1.37, 1.00-2.14). There was a positive relationship between herd-level N. caninum seroprevalence and the reported within-herd abortion rate (Incidence Rate Ratio = 1.03, 95% CrI 1.00-1.06). Our findings suggest N. caninum is likely to be an important cause of abortion in cattle in Tanzania. Management practices, such as restricted grazing, are likely to reduce the risk of infection and suggest contamination of communal grazing areas may be important for transmission. Evidence for a relationship between livestock seropositivity and shrub and forest habitats raises questions about a potential role for wildlife in the epidemiology of N. caninum in Tanzania.

Street-level diplomacy and local enforcement for meat safety in northern Tanzania: knowledge, pragmatism and trust

BACKGROUND

With increasing demand for red meat in Tanzania comes heightened potential for zoonotic infections in animals and humans that disproportionately affect poor communities. A range of frontline government employees work to protect public health, providing services for people engaged in animal-based livelihoods (livestock owners and butchers), and enforcing meat safety and food premises standards. In contrast to literature which emphasises the inadequacy of extension support and food safety policy implementation in low- and middle-income countries, this paper foregrounds the 'street-level diplomacy' deployed by frontline actors operating in challenging contexts.

METHODS

This research is based on semi-structured interviews with 61 government employees, including livestock extension officers/meat inspectors and health officers, across 10 randomly-selected rural and urban wards.

RESULTS

Frontline actors combined formal and informal strategies including the leveraging of formal policy texts and relationships with other state employees, remaining flexible and recognising that poverty constrained people's ability to comply with health regulations. They emphasised the need to work with livestock keepers and butchers to build their knowledge to self-regulate and to work collaboratively to ensure meat safety. Remaining adaptive and being hesitant to act punitively unless absolutely necessary cultivated trust and positive relations, making those engaged in animal-based livelihoods more open to learning from and cooperating with extension officers and inspectors. This may result in higher levels of meat safety than might be the case if frontline actors stringently enforced regulations.

CONCLUSION

The current tendency to view frontline actors' partial enforcement of meat safety regulations as a failure obscures the creative and proactive ways in which they seek to ensure meat safety in a context of limited resources. Their application of 'street-level diplomacy' enables them to be sensitive to local socio-economic realities, to respect local social norms and expectations and to build support for health safety interventions when necessary. More explicitly acknowledging the role of trust and positive state-society relations and the diplomatic skills deployed by frontline actors as a formal part of their inspection duties offers new perspectives and enhanced understandings on the complicated nature of their work and what might be done to support them.

Incidence of human brucellosis in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania in the periods 2007-2008 and 2012-2014

Background

Brucellosis causes substantial morbidity among humans and their livestock. There are few robust estimates of the incidence of brucellosis in sub-Saharan Africa. Using cases identified through sentinel hospital surveillance and health care utilization data, we estimated the incidence of brucellosis in Moshi Urban and Moshi Rural Districts, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania, for the periods 2007–2008 and 2012–2014.

Methods

Cases were identified among febrile patients at two sentinel hospitals and were defined as having either a 4-fold increase in Brucella microscopic agglutination test titres between acute and convalescent serum or a blood culture positive for Brucella spp. Findings from a health care utilization survey were used to estimate multipliers to account for cases not seen at sentinel hospitals.

Results

Of 585 patients enrolled in the period 2007–2008, 13 (2.2%) had brucellosis. Among 1095 patients enrolled in the period 2012–2014, 32 (2.9%) had brucellosis. We estimated an incidence (range based on sensitivity analysis) of brucellosis of 35 (range 32–93) cases per 100 000 persons annually in the period 2007–2008 and 33 (range 30–89) cases per 100 000 persons annually in the period 2012–2014.

Conclusions

We found a moderate incidence of brucellosis in northern Tanzania, suggesting that the disease is endemic and an important human health problem in this area.

Transmission ecology of canine parvovirus in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system

Understanding multi-host pathogen maintenance and transmission dynamics is critical for disease control. However, transmission dynamics remain enigmatic largely because they are difficult to observe directly, particularly in wildlife. Here, we investigate the transmission dynamics of canine parvovirus (CPV) using state-space modelling of 20 years of CPV serology data from domestic dogs and African lions in the Serengeti ecosystem. We show that, although vaccination reduces the probability of infection in dogs, and despite indirect enhancement of population seropositivity as a result of vaccine shedding, the vaccination coverage achieved has been insufficient to prevent CPV from becoming widespread. CPV is maintained by the dog population and has become endemic with approximately 3.5-year cycles and prevalence reaching approximately 80%. While the estimated prevalence in lions is lower, peaks of infection consistently follow those in dogs. Dogs exposed to CPV are also more likely to become infected with a second multi-host pathogen, canine distemper virus. However, vaccination can weaken this coupling, raising questions about the value of monovalent versus polyvalent vaccines against these two pathogens. Our findings highlight the need to consider both pathogen- and host-level community interactions when seeking to understand the dynamics of multi-host pathogens and their implications for conservation, disease surveillance and control programmes.