Child survivorship estimation: methods and data analysis

"The past 20 years have seen extensive elaboration, refinement, and application of the original Brass method for estimating infant and child mortality from child survivorship data. This experience has confirmed the overall usefulness of the methods beyond question, but it has also shown that...estimates must be analyzed in relation to other relevant information before useful conclusions about the level and trend of mortality can be drawn.... This article aims to illustrate the importance of data analysis through a series of examples, including data for the Eastern Malaysian state of Sarawak, Mexico, Thailand, and Indonesia. Specific maneuvers include plotting completed parity distributions and 'time-plotting' mean numbers of children ever born from successive censuses. A substantive conclusion of general interest is that data for older women are not so widely defective as generally supposed."

Epidemiological transition of mortality curves in terms of the Brass logit system

"The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-term trends of life tables in developed countries according to two parameters of the Brass system in order to find the range of variation, consistent with historical life tables (or, in other words, to define 'a field of epidemiological transition')." The author finds that "1) In the past, the mortality curves had U- and J-shapes, the latter being connected with the impact of demographic crises....2) The elimination of the crisis component at the first stage of the transition resulted in the transformation of the mortality curves towards the U-shape....3) At the second stage social control is established over premature mortality. As a result, life expectancy grows, and the shape of the curves moves towards the J-shape....4) In the past the male and female life tables usually did not differ from each other as regards the value of the Brass model parameters. However, in the last 30-40 years considerable sexual differences emerged both in the level and in the shape of the mortality curves." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Estimating child mortality in Zimbabwe: results of a pilot study using the preceding births technique

Using the preceding birth technique, 2,229 mothers were interviewed at four antenatal centres (two of which were urban) over a three month period during a pilot study in Zimbabwe. Results of the study showed that there was a small difference between the under two and under five mortality. The smaller than expected difference could have been due to some degree of urbanisation being experienced at two of the centres, and to a systematic selection bias of the method. Other findings of the study showed that younger mothers (under 20 years of age) and older mothers (over 40 years) experienced higher proportions of mortality, than mothers in the age group between. The higher proportion of male mortality compared to that for females reflected the expected trend, but the size of the difference was somewhat surprising, and could have been due to recall bias. The mean birth interval was 36 months, rather than the expected 30 months, and analysis of mortality in relation to birth interval and maternal age showed that a birth interval of less than 18 months was associated with higher child mortality, significantly so with the second last child, independent of mother's age. Longer birth intervals (more than three years) among older mothers were associated with higher changes of child survival. It is concluded that the Brass-Macrae method is a useful technique to analyse levels and trends of child mortality.

Infant mortality in Bangladesh: a review of recent evidence

Estimates of child mortality are mainly based on reports by mothers on the survival status of their children. Infant mortality estimates from such data do not seem to have declined in recent years. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics sample registration infant mortality estimates appear to be suspiciously low.

A Chinese female postnuptial leaving home model--a procedure for analyzing main parameters alpha and beta in the setting up, testing and estimation of the model

"The first section of this article...sets up a model for leaving home after marriage that is suited to China's situation. The second section performs a statistical test and verification of the formulated model for leaving home after marriage. The third section...proposes a method for analyzing the main parameters...in the model...." The model is set up along the lines of the Brass-Gompertz relational fertility model.

Estimating child mortality and modelling its age pattern for India

"Using data [for India] on proportions of children dead...estimates of infant and child mortality are...obtained by Sullivan and Trussell modifications of [the] Brass basic method. The estimate of child survivorship function derived after logit smoothing appears to be more reliable than that obtained by the Census Actuary. The age pattern of childhood mortality is suitably modelled by [a] Weibull function defining the probability of surviving from birth to a specified age and involving two parameters of level and shape. A recently developed linearization procedure based on [a] graphical approach is adopted for estimating the parameters of the function."

[[Development of new relational models for the age pattern of mortality]]

After a discussion of the Brass logit model of age-specific mortality, the author proposes five new relational models of the age pattern of mortality. These models and related mathematical extensions of the conventional logit model are assessed as to "their applicability as model life table systems and projection tools of age patterns of mortality in time series. The results indicate that [the] relational models serve as useful demographic tools for estimation and projection besides [their] original use in analytical studies of aging and mortality processes." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

[Estimation of infant and child mortality in the eastern provinces of Cuba]

An estimate of infant and child mortality in the eastern provinces of Cuba is presented using the Brass method as adapted by Trussell. "Estimations by urban and rural zones are also performed within the provinces studied, and results are compared with those possible to obtain by continuous statistics. Results obtained show that in the eastern [part] of the country Holguin and Guantanamo are the provinces with highest infantile mortality rates, and the lowest rates correspond to Granma, followed by Santiago de Cuba." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)

[Estimation of adult mortality in six parishes of the central valley of Costa Rica (1888-1910) based on information on orphanhood]

"This paper contains an application of the orphanhood method for estimating adult mortality, based on information provided during the period 1888-1910 by the brides and bridegrooms of six parishes of the Central Valley of Costa Rica.... Using the Brass technique for estimating adult mortality from orphanhood and interpolating the resulting probabilities of surviving into... Coale and Demeny's regional model life tables, the life expectancy at the age of 25 years is estimated [at] 41 years for women and 40 years for men." Mortality differences by region and social-occupational group are considered. (summary in ENG)

Level and pattern of mortality in the Kuwaiti population, 1980

"Vital registration data together with 1980 census data [are] used for assessing the mortality level among the Kuwaiti male and female population in 1980. Under the eclectic approach adopted in this paper, mortality estimates for different sections of age-spans are derived through various indirect techniques. For early childhood mortality estimates, the method developed by Brass...has been employed, whereas, for old age, mortality estimates are derived through Coale's method.... The results show that, as in the developed societies, Kuwaiti females have lower mortality compared with Kuwaiti males."

Age pattern of fertility in the Sudan

In the absence of reliable fertility statistics in the Sudan, estimates are based on census or sample survey data. Methods of analysis are applied which are suitable to the kind and quality of the collected information. This paper uses data provided by the World Fertility Survey of the Sudan. The number of children ever born tabulated by the duration of marriage is used to derive an estimate of the age pattern of fertility. The level of natural fertility is found to be low. However, the calculated crude birth rate is high and consistent with rates calculated by other methods using different data.

Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications

This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."