A counting renaissance: combining stochastic mapping and empirical Bayes to quickly detect amino acid sites under positive selection

Genomic data support reticulate evolution in whiptail lizards from the Brazilian Caatinga

Species relationships have traditionally been represented by phylogenetic trees, but not all evolutionary histories fit into bifurcating divergence models. Introgressive hybridization challenges this assumption by sometimes [or maybe often] leading to mitochondrial introgression, wherein one species' mitochondrial genome is entirely replaced by another's (mitochondrial capture). Such processes result in mitonuclear discrepancies, complicating species delimitation and phylogenetic inference. In our study, we used ultraconserved elements (UCE) and mitogenomic data to investigate the evolutionary history of the Ameivula ocellifera complex, a group of South American whiptail lizards widely distributed in semiarid environments of the Caatinga Domain in Brazil. We examine mitonuclear discordances, assessing reticulate evolution, evaluating species limits, and testing for adaptive mitochondrial capture that could explain higher introgression in the mitochondrial genome compared to nuclear DNA. Our findings support the occurrence of an ancient reticulation event during the diversification of these lizards, driven by introgressive hybridization, leading to mitochondrial capture, and explaining mitonuclear discrepancies. Overall, we did not find clear evidence of positive selection across mitochondrial protein-coding genes suggesting adaptive mitochondrial capture of individuals with introgressed mtDNA. Thus, the genetic diversification and mitogenome evolution could be neutral, with selection against hybridization in the autosomal loci only, or even mediated by mitonuclear incompatibilities. Analyses of mtDNA genomes alongside network and species delimitation methods were crucial for identifying and validating individuals with introgressed mtDNA as a distinct species, demonstrating the potential of genome sampling, and using innovative analytical techniques for elucidating speciation processes in the presence of introgressive hybridization.

Association of poultry vaccination with interspecies transmission and molecular evolution of H5 subtype avian influenza virus

The effectiveness of poultry vaccination in preventing the transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (AIVs) has been debated, and its impact on wild birds remains uncertain. Here, we reconstruct the movements of H5 subtype AIV lineages among vaccinated poultry, unvaccinated poultry, and wild birds, worldwide, from 1996 to 2023. We find that there is a time lag in viral transmission among different host populations and that movements from wild birds to unvaccinated poultry were more frequent than those from wild birds to vaccinated poultry. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the HA (hemagglutinin) gene of the AIV lineage that circulated predominately in Chinese poultry experienced greater nonsynonymous divergence and adaptive fixation than other lineages. Our results indicate that the epidemiological, ecological, and evolutionary consequences of widespread AIV vaccination in poultry may be linked in complex ways and that much work is needed to better understand how such interventions may affect AIV transmission to, within, and from wild birds.

Genomic epidemiology of early SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Genomic epidemiology has helped reconstruct the global and regional movement of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, there is still a lack of understanding of SARS-CoV-2 spread in some of the world's least developed countries (LDCs).

METHODS

To begin to address this disparity, we studied the transmission dynamics of the virus in Bangladesh during the country's first COVID-19 wave by analysing case reports and whole-genome sequences from all eight divisions of the country.

RESULTS

We detected > 50 virus introductions to the country during the period, including during a period of national lockdown. Additionally, through discrete phylogeographic analyses, we identified that geographical distance and population -density and/or -size influenced virus spatial dispersal in Bangladesh.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, this study expands our knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiology in Bangladesh, shedding light on crucial transmission characteristics within the country, while also acknowledging resemblances and differences to patterns observed in other nations.

Higher HIV-1 evolutionary rate is associated with cytotoxic T lymphocyte escape mutations in infants

Escape from cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses toward HIV-1 Gag and Nef has been associated with reduced control of HIV-1 replication in adults. However, less is known about CTL-driven immune selection in infants as longitudinal studies of infants are limited. Here, 1,210 gag and 1,264 nef sequences longitudinally collected within 15 months after birth from 14 HIV-1 perinatally infected infants and their mothers were analyzed. The number of transmitted founder (T/F) viruses and associations between virus evolution, selection, CTL escape, and disease progression were determined. The analyses indicated that a paraphyletic-monophyletic relationship between the mother-infant sequences was common (80%), and that the HIV-1 infection was established by a single T/F virus in 10 of the 12 analyzed infants (83%). Furthermore, most HIV-1 CTL escape mutations among infants were transmitted from the mothers and did not revert during the first year of infection. Still, immune-driven selection was observed at approximately 3 months after HIV-1 infection in infants. Moreover, virus populations with CTL escape mutations in gag evolved faster than those without, independently of disease progression rate. These findings expand the current knowledge of HIV-1 transmission, evolution, and CTL escape in infant HIV-1 infection and are relevant for the development of immune-directed interventions in infants.IMPORTANCEDespite increased coverage in antiretroviral therapy for the prevention of perinatal transmission, paediatric HIV-1 infection remains a significant public health concern, especially in areas of high HIV-1 prevalence. Understanding HIV-1 transmission and the subsequent virus adaptation from the mother to the infant's host environment, as well as the viral factors that affect disease outcome, is important for the development of early immune-directed interventions for infants. This study advances our understanding of vertical HIV-1 transmission, and how infant immune selection pressure is shaping the intra-host evolutionary dynamics of HIV-1.

The genomic evolutionary dynamics and global circulation patterns of respiratory syncytial virus

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection in young children and the second leading cause of infant death worldwide. While global circulation has been extensively studied for respiratory viruses such as seasonal influenza, and more recently also in great detail for SARS-CoV-2, a lack of global multi-annual sampling of complete RSV genomes limits our understanding of RSV molecular epidemiology. Here, we capitalise on the genomic surveillance by the INFORM-RSV study and apply phylodynamic approaches to uncover how selection and neutral epidemiological processes shape RSV diversity. Using complete viral genome sequences, we show similar patterns of site-specific diversifying selection among RSVA and RSVB and recover the imprint of non-neutral epidemic processes on their genealogies. Using a phylogeographic approach, we provide evidence for air travel governing the global patterns of RSVA and RSVB spread, which results in a considerable degree of phylogenetic mixing across countries. Our findings highlight the potential of systematic global RSV genomic surveillance for transforming our understanding of global RSV spread.

Comparative evolution of influenza A virus H1 and H3 head and stalk domains across host species

IMPORTANCE

For decades, researchers have studied the rapid evolution of influenza A viruses for vaccine design and as a useful model system for the study of host/parasite evolution. By performing an exhaustive analysis of hemagglutinin protein (HA) sequences from 49 lineages independently evolving in birds, swine, canines, equines, and humans over the last century, our work uncovers surprising features of HA evolution. In particular, the canine H3 stalk, unlike human H3 and H1 stalk domains, is not evolving slowly, suggesting that evolution in the stalk domain is not universally constrained across all host species. Therefore, a broader multi-host perspective on HA evolution may be useful during the evaluation and design of stalk-targeted vaccine candidates.

Accumulated metagenomic studies reveal recent migration, whole genome evolution, and undiscovered diversity of orthomyxoviruses

IMPORTANCE

The number of known virus species has increased dramatically through metagenomic studies, which search genetic material sampled from a host for non-host genes. Here, we focus on an important viral family that includes influenza viruses, the Orthomyxoviridae, with over 100 recently discovered viruses infecting hosts from humans to fish. We find that one virus called Wǔhàn mosquito virus 6, discovered in mosquitoes in China, has spread across the globe very recently. Surface proteins used to enter cells show signs of rapid evolution in Wǔhàn mosquito virus 6 and its relatives which suggests an ability to infect vertebrate animals. We compute the rate at which new orthomyxovirus species discovered add evolutionary history to the tree of life, predict that many viruses remain to be discovered, and discuss what appropriately designed future studies can teach us about how diseases cross between continents and species.

Genome-informed investigation of the molecular evolution and genetic reassortment of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus

BACKGROUND

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) is a viral pathogen causing significant clinical signs from mild fever with thrombocytopenia to severe hemorrhages. World Health Organization has paid special attention to the dramatic increase in human SFTS cases in China, Japan, and South Korea since the 2010s. The present study investigated the molecular evolution and genetic reassortment of SFTSVs using complete genomic sequences.

METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDING

We collected the complete genome sequences of SFTSVs globally isolated until 2019 (L segment, n = 307; M segment, n = 326; and S segment, n = 564) and evaluated the evolutionary profiles of SFTSVs based on phylogenetic and molecular selection pressure analyses. By employing a time-scaled Bayesian inference method, we found the geographical heterogeneity of dominant SFTSV genotypes in China, Japan, and South Korea around several centuries before and locally spread by tick-born spillover with infrequent long-distance transmission. Purifying selection predominated the molecular evolution of SFTSVs with limited gene reassortment and fixed substitution, but almost all three gene segments appeared to harbor at least one amino acid residue under positive selection. Specifically, the nonstructural protein and glycoprotein (Gn/Gc) genes were preferential selective targets, and the Gn region retained the highest number of positively selected residues.

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

Here, the large-scale genomic analyses of SFTSVs improved prior knowledge of how this virus emerged and evolved in China, Japan, and South Korea. Our results highlight the importance of SFTSV surveillance in both human and non-human reservoirs at the molecular level to fight against fatal human infection with the virus.

Accelerated evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in free-ranging white-tailed deer

The zoonotic origin of the COVID-19 pandemic virus highlights the need to fill the vast gaps in our knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 ecology and evolution in non-human hosts. Here, we detected that SARS-CoV-2 was introduced from humans into white-tailed deer more than 30 times in Ohio, USA during November 2021-March 2022. Subsequently, deer-to-deer transmission persisted for 2-8 months, disseminating across hundreds of kilometers. Newly developed Bayesian phylogenetic methods quantified how SARS-CoV-2 evolution is not only three-times faster in white-tailed deer compared to the rate observed in humans but also driven by different mutational biases and selection pressures. The long-term effect of this accelerated evolutionary rate remains to be seen as no critical phenotypic changes were observed in our animal models using white-tailed deer origin viruses. Still, SARS-CoV-2 has transmitted in white-tailed deer populations for a relatively short duration, and the risk of future changes may have serious consequences for humans and livestock.

Accelerated evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in free-ranging white-tailed deer

While SARS-CoV-2 has sporadically infected a wide range of animal species worldwide1, the virus has been repeatedly and frequently detected in white-tailed deer in North America2â€"7. The zoonotic origins of this pandemic virus highlight the need to fill the vast gaps in our knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 ecology and evolution in non-human hosts. Here, we detected SARS-CoV-2 was introduced from humans into white-tailed deer more than 30 times in Ohio, USA during November 2021-March 2022. Subsequently, deer-to-deer transmission persisted for 2-8 months, which disseminated across hundreds of kilometers. We discovered that alpha and delta variants evolved in white-tailed deer at three-times the rate observed in humans. Newly developed Bayesian phylogenetic methods quantified how SARS-CoV-2 evolution is not only faster in white-tailed deer but driven by different mutational biases and selection pressures. White-tailed deer are not just short-term recipients of human viral diversity but serve as reservoirs for alpha and other variants to evolve in new directions after going extinct in humans. The long-term effect of this accelerated evolutionary rate remains to be seen as no critical phenotypic changes were observed in our animal model experiments using viruses isolated from white-tailed deer. Still, SARS-CoV-2 viruses have transmitted in white-tailed deer populations for a relatively short duration, and the risk of future changes may have serious consequences for humans and livestock.

Leon K, Ontiveros CO, Agarwal R, Tsetsarkin KA, Harris E, Ebel GD, Wohl S, Grubaugh ND, Andersen KG. Genomic and phenotypic analyses suggest moderate fitness differences among Zika virus lineages

RNA viruses have short generation times and high mutation rates, allowing them to undergo rapid molecular evolution during epidemics. However, the extent of RNA virus phenotypic evolution within epidemics and the resulting effects on fitness and virulence remain mostly unknown. Here, we screened the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in the Americas for lineage-specific fitness differences. We engineered a library of recombinant viruses representing twelve major Zika virus lineages and used them to measure replicative fitness within disease-relevant human primary cells and live mosquitoes. We found that two of these lineages conferred significant in vitro replicative fitness changes among human primary cells, but we did not find fitness changes in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Additionally, we found evidence for elevated levels of positive selection among five amino acid sites that define major Zika virus lineages. While our work suggests that Zika virus may have acquired several phenotypic changes during a short time scale, these changes were relatively moderate and do not appear to have enhanced transmission during the epidemic.

Endogenous Viral Elements in Shrew Genomes Provide Insights into Pestivirus Ancient History

As viral genomic imprints in host genomes, endogenous viral elements (EVEs) shed light on the deep evolutionary history of viruses, ancestral host ranges, and ancient viral-host interactions. In addition, they may provide crucial information for calibrating viral evolutionary timescales. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive in silico screening of a large data set of available mammalian genomes for EVEs deriving from members of the viral family Flaviviridae, an important group of viruses including well-known human pathogens, such as Zika, dengue, or hepatitis C viruses. We identified two novel pestivirus-like EVEs in the reference genome of the Indochinese shrew (Crocidura indochinensis). Homologs of these novel EVEs were subsequently detected in vivo by molecular detection and sequencing in 27 shrew species, including 26 species representing a wide distribution within the Crocidurinae subfamily and one in the Soricinae subfamily on different continents. Based on this wide distribution, we estimate that the integration event occurred before the last common ancestor of the subfamily, about 10.8 million years ago, attesting to an ancient origin of pestiviruses and Flaviviridae in general. Moreover, we provide the first description of Flaviviridae-derived EVEs in mammals even though the family encompasses numerous mammal-infecting members. This also suggests that shrews were past and perhaps also current natural reservoirs of pestiviruses. Taken together, our results expand the current known Pestivirus host range and provide novel insight into the ancient evolutionary history of pestiviruses and the Flaviviridae family in general.

Intrahost evolution of the HIV-2 capsid correlates with progression to AIDS

HIV-2 infection will progress to AIDS in most patients without treatment, albeit at approximately half the rate of HIV-1 infection. HIV-2 capsid (p26) amino acid polymorphisms are associated with lower viral loads and enhanced processing of T cell epitopes, which may lead to protective Gag-specific T cell responses common in slower progressors. Lower virus evolutionary rates, and positive selection on conserved residues in HIV-2 env have been associated with slower progression to AIDS. In this study we analysed 369 heterochronous HIV-2 p26 sequences from 12 participants with a median age of 30 years at enrolment. CD4% change over time was used to stratify participants into relative faster and slower progressor groups. We analysed p26 sequence diversity evolution, measured site-specific selection pressures and evolutionary rates, and determined if these evolutionary parameters were associated with progression status. Faster progressors had lower CD4% and faster CD4% decline rates. Median pairwise sequence diversity was higher in faster progressors (5.7x10-3 versus 1.4x10-3 base substitutions per site, P<0.001). p26 evolved under negative selection in both groups (dN/dS=0.12). Median virus evolutionary rates were higher in faster than slower progressors - synonymous rates: 4.6x10-3 vs. 2.3x10-3; and nonsynonymous rates: 6.9x10-4 vs. 2.7x10-4 substitutions/site/year, respectively. Virus evolutionary rates correlated negatively with CD4% change rates (ρ = -0.8, P=0.02), but not CD4% level. The signature amino acid at p26 positions 6, 12 and 119 differed between faster (6A, 12I, 119A) and slower (6G, 12V, 119P) progressors. These amino acid positions clustered near to the TRIM5α/p26 hexamer interface surface. p26 evolutionary rates were associated with progression to AIDS and were mostly driven by synonymous substitutions. Nonsynonymous evolutionary rates were an order of magnitude lower than synonymous rates, with limited amino acid sequence evolution over time within hosts. These results indicate HIV-2 p26 may be an attractive therapeutic target.

Evolution of the North American Lineage H7 Avian Influenza Viruses in Association with H7 Virus's Introduction to Poultry

The incursions of H7 subtype low-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) from wild birds into poultry and its mutations to highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) have been an ongoing concern in North America. Since 2000, 10 phylogenetically distinct H7 virus outbreaks from wild birds have been detected in poultry, six of which mutated to HPAIV. To study the molecular evolution of the H7 viruses that occurs when changing hosts from wild birds to poultry, we performed analyses of the North American H7 hemagglutinin (HA) genes to identify amino acid changes as the virus circulated in wild birds from 2000 to 2019. Then, we analyzed recurring HA amino acid changes and gene constellations of the viruses that spread from wild birds to poultry. We found six HA amino acid changes occurring during wild bird circulation and 10 recurring changes after the spread to poultry. Eight of the changes were in and around the HA antigenic sites, three of which were supported by positive selection. Viruses from each H7 outbreak had a unique genotype, with no specific genetic group associated with poultry outbreaks or mutation to HPAIV. However, the genotypes of the H7 viruses in poultry outbreaks tended to contain minor genetic groups less observed in wild bird H7 viruses, suggesting either a biased sampling of wild bird AIVs or a tendency of having reassortment with minor genetic groups prior to the virus's introduction to poultry. IMPORTANCE Wild bird-origin H7 subtype avian influenza viruses are a constant threat to commercial poultry, both directly by the disease they cause and indirectly through trade restrictions that can be imposed when the virus is detected in poultry. It is important to understand the genetic basis of why the North American lineage H7 viruses have repeatedly crossed the species barrier from wild birds to poultry. We examined the amino acid changes in the H7 viruses associated with poultry outbreaks and tried to determine gene reassortment related to poultry adaptation and mutations to HPAIV. The findings in this study increase the understanding of the evolutionary pathways of wild bird AIV before infecting poultry and the HA changes associated with adaptation of the virus in poultry.

Characterization of yam mosaic viruses from Brazil reveals a new phylogenetic group and possible incursion from the African continent

Yam (Dioscorea spp.) is an important crop for smallholder farmers in the Northeast region of Brazil. Wherever yam is grown, diseases caused by yam mosaic virus (YMV) are prevalent. In the present study, the diversity of YMV infecting Dioscorea cayennensis-rotundata was analyzed. In addition, five species of Dioscorea (D. alata, D. altissima, D. bulbifera, D. subhastata, and D. trifida) commonly found in Brazil were analyzed using ELISA and high-throughput sequencing (HTS). YMV was detected only in D. cayennensis-rotundata, of which 66.7% of the samples tested positive in ELISA. Three YMV genome sequences were assembled from HTS and one by Sanger sequencing to group the sequences in a clade phylogenetically distinct from YMV from other origins. Temporal phylogenetic analyses estimated the mean evolutionary rate for the CP gene of YMV as 1.76 × 10^-3 substitutions per site per year, and the time to the most recent common ancestor as 168.68 years (95% Highest Posterior Density, HPD: 48.56-363.28 years), with a most likely geographic origin in the African continent. The data presented in this study contribute to reveal key aspects of the probable epidemiological history of YMV in Brazil.

Genomic Epidemiology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics, Gujarat, India

Limited genomic sampling in many high-incidence countries has impeded studies of severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomic epidemiology. Consequently, critical questions remain about the generation and global distribution of virus genetic diversity. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Gujarat, India, during the state's first epidemic wave to shed light on spread of the virus in one of the regions hardest hit by the pandemic. By integrating case data and 434 whole-genome sequences sampled across 20 districts, we reconstructed the epidemic dynamics and spatial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Gujarat. Our findings indicate global and regional connectivity and population density were major drivers of the Gujarat outbreak. We detected >100 virus lineage introductions, most of which appear to be associated with international travel. Within Gujarat, virus dissemination occurred predominantly from densely populated regions to geographically proximate locations that had low population density, suggesting that urban centers contributed disproportionately to virus spread.

Inference of Nipah virus evolution, 1999-2015

Despite near-annual human outbreaks of Nipah virus (NiV) disease in Bangladesh, typically due to individual spillover events from the local bat population, only twenty whole-genome NiV sequences exist from humans and ten from bats. NiV whole-genome sequences from annual outbreaks have been challenging to generate, primarily due to the low viral load in human throat swab and serum specimens. Here, we used targeted enrichment with custom NiV-specific probes and generated thirty-five additional unique full-length genomic sequences directly from human specimens and viral isolates. We inferred the temporal and geographic evolutionary history of NiV in Bangladesh and expanded a tool to visualize NiV spatio-temporal spread from a Bayesian continuous diffusion analysis. We observed that strains from Bangladesh segregated into two distinct clades that have intermingled geographically in Bangladesh over time and space. As these clades expanded geographically and temporally, we did not observe evidence for significant branch and site-specific selection, except for a single site in the Henipavirus L polymerase. However, the Bangladesh 1 and 2 clades are differentiated by mutations initially occurring in the polymerase, with additional mutations accumulating in the N, G, F, P, and L genes on external branches. Modeling the historic geographical and temporal spread demonstrates that while widespread, NiV does not exhibit significant genetic variation in Bangladesh. Thus, future public health measures should address whether NiV within in the bat population also exhibits comparable genetic variation, if zoonotic transmission results in a genetic bottleneck and if surveillance techniques are detecting only a subset of NiV.

A Darwinian Uncertainty Principle

Reconstructing ancestral characters and traits along a phylogenetic tree is central to evolutionary biology. It is the key to understanding morphology changes among species, inferring ancestral biochemical properties of life, or recovering migration routes in phylogeography. The goal is 2-fold: to reconstruct the character state at the tree root (e.g., the region of origin of some species) and to understand the process of state changes along the tree (e.g., species flow between countries). We deal here with discrete characters, which are “unique,” as opposed to sequence characters (nucleotides or amino-acids), where we assume the same model for all the characters (or for large classes of characters with site-dependent models) and thus benefit from multiple information sources. In this framework, we use mathematics and simulations to demonstrate that although each goal can be achieved with high accuracy individually, it is generally impossible to accurately estimate both the root state and the rates of state changes along the tree branches, from the observed data at the tips of the tree. This is because the global rates of state changes along the branches that are optimal for the two estimation tasks have opposite trends, leading to a fundamental trade-off in accuracy. This inherent “Darwinian uncertainty principle” concerning the simultaneous estimation of “patterns” and “processes” governs ancestral reconstructions in biology. For certain tree shapes (typically speciation trees) the uncertainty of simultaneous estimation is reduced when more tips are present; however, for other tree shapes it does not (e.g., coalescent trees used in population genetics).

Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic

There are outstanding evolutionary questions on the recent emergence of human coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 including the role of reservoir species, the role of recombination and its time of divergence from animal viruses. We find that the sarbecoviruses-the viral subgenus containing SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2-undergo frequent recombination and exhibit spatially structured genetic diversity on a regional scale in China. SARS-CoV-2 itself is not a recombinant of any sarbecoviruses detected to date, and its receptor-binding motif, important for specificity to human ACE2 receptors, appears to be an ancestral trait shared with bat viruses and not one acquired recently via recombination. To employ phylogenetic dating methods, recombinant regions of a 68-genome sarbecovirus alignment were removed with three independent methods. Bayesian evolutionary rate and divergence date estimates were shown to be consistent for these three approaches and for two different prior specifications of evolutionary rates based on HCoV-OC43 and MERS-CoV. Divergence dates between SARS-CoV-2 and the bat sarbecovirus reservoir were estimated as 1948 (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 1879-1999), 1969 (95% HPD: 1930-2000) and 1982 (95% HPD: 1948-2009), indicating that the lineage giving rise to SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating unnoticed in bats for decades.

Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic

There are outstanding evolutionary questions on the recent emergence of human coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 including the role of reservoir species, the role of recombination and its time of divergence from animal viruses. We find that the sarbecoviruses-the viral subgenus containing SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2-undergo frequent recombination and exhibit spatially structured genetic diversity on a regional scale in China. SARS-CoV-2 itself is not a recombinant of any sarbecoviruses detected to date, and its receptor-binding motif, important for specificity to human ACE2 receptors, appears to be an ancestral trait shared with bat viruses and not one acquired recently via recombination. To employ phylogenetic dating methods, recombinant regions of a 68-genome sarbecovirus alignment were removed with three independent methods. Bayesian evolutionary rate and divergence date estimates were shown to be consistent for these three approaches and for two different prior specifications of evolutionary rates based on HCoV-OC43 and MERS-CoV. Divergence dates between SARS-CoV-2 and the bat sarbecovirus reservoir were estimated as 1948 (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 1879-1999), 1969 (95% HPD: 1930-2000) and 1982 (95% HPD: 1948-2009), indicating that the lineage giving rise to SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating unnoticed in bats for decades.

Asexual Evolution and Forest Conditions Drive Genetic Parallelism in Phytophthora ramorum

It is commonly assumed that asexual lineages are short-lived evolutionarily, yet many asexual organisms can generate genetic and phenotypic variation, providing an avenue for further evolution. Previous work on the asexual plant pathogen Phytophthora ramorum NA1 revealed considerable genetic variation in the form of Structural Variants (SVs). To better understand how SVs arise and their significance to the California NA1 population, we studied the evolutionary histories of SVs and the forest conditions associated with their emergence. Ancestral state reconstruction suggests that SVs arose by somatic mutations among multiple independent lineages, rather than by recombination. We asked if this unusual phenomenon of parallel evolution between isolated populations is transmitted to extant lineages and found that SVs persist longer in a population if their genetic background had a lower mutation load. Genetic parallelism was also found in geographically distant demes where forest conditions such as host density, solar radiation, and temperature, were similar. Parallel SVs overlap with genes involved in pathogenicity such as RXLRs and have the potential to change the course of an epidemic. By combining genomics and environmental data, we identified an unexpected pattern of repeated evolution in an asexual population and identified environmental factors potentially driving this phenomenon.

Vulnerabilities in coronavirus glycan shields despite extensive glycosylation

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses (CoVs) are zoonotic pathogens with high fatality rates and pandemic potential. Vaccine development focuses on the principal target of the neutralizing humoral immune response, the spike (S) glycoprotein. Coronavirus S proteins are extensively glycosylated, encoding around 66-87 N-linked glycosylation sites per trimeric spike. Here, we reveal a specific area of high glycan density on MERS S that results in the formation of oligomannose-type glycan clusters, which were absent on SARS and HKU1 CoVs. We provide a comparison of the global glycan density of coronavirus spikes with other viral proteins including HIV-1 envelope, Lassa virus glycoprotein complex, and influenza hemagglutinin, where glycosylation plays a known role in shielding immunogenic epitopes. Overall, our data reveal how organisation of glycosylation across class I viral fusion proteins influence not only individual glycan compositions but also the immunological pressure across the protein surface.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Oropouche Virus in South America

The emergence and reemergence of pathogens such as Zika virus, chikungunya virus, and yellow fever virus have drawn attention toward other cocirculating arboviruses in South America. Oropouche virus (OROV) is a poorly studied pathogen responsible for over a dozen outbreaks since the early 1960s and represents a public health burden to countries such as Brazil, Panama, and Peru. OROV is likely underreported since its symptomatology can be easily confounded with other febrile illnesses (e.g., dengue fever and leptospirosis) and point-of-care testing for the virus is still uncommon. With limited data, there is a need to optimize the information currently available. Analysis of OROV genomes can help us understand how the virus circulates in nature and can reveal the evolutionary forces that shape the genetic diversity of the virus, which has implications for molecular diagnostics and the design of potential vaccines.

The Amazon basin is home to numerous arthropod-borne viral pathogens that cause febrile disease in humans. Among these, Oropouche orthobunyavirus (OROV) is a relatively understudied member of the genus Orthobunyavirus, family Peribunyaviridae, that causes periodic outbreaks in human populations in Brazil and other South American countries. Although several studies have described the genetic diversity of the virus, the evolutionary processes that shape the OROV genome remain poorly understood. Here, we present a comprehensive study of the genomic dynamics of OROV that encompasses phylogenetic analysis, evolutionary rate estimates, inference of natural selective pressures, recombination and reassortment, and structural analysis of OROV variants. Our study includes all available published sequences, as well as a set of new OROV genome sequences obtained from patients in Ecuador, representing the first set of genomes from this country. Our results show differing evolutionary processes on the three segments that comprise the viral genome. We infer differing times of the most recent common ancestors of the genome segments and propose that this can be explained by cryptic reassortment. We also present the discovery of previously unobserved putative N-linked glycosylation sites, as well as codons that evolve under positive selection on the viral surface proteins, and discuss the potential role of these features in the evolution of OROV through a combined phylogenetic and structural approach.

IMPORTANCE The emergence and reemergence of pathogens such as Zika virus, chikungunya virus, and yellow fever virus have drawn attention toward other cocirculating arboviruses in South America. Oropouche virus (OROV) is a poorly studied pathogen responsible for over a dozen outbreaks since the early 1960s and represents a public health burden to countries such as Brazil, Panama, and Peru. OROV is likely underreported since its symptomatology can be easily confounded with other febrile illnesses (e.g., dengue fever and leptospirosis) and point-of-care testing for the virus is still uncommon. With limited data, there is a need to optimize the information currently available. Analysis of OROV genomes can help us understand how the virus circulates in nature and can reveal the evolutionary forces that shape the genetic diversity of the virus, which has implications for molecular diagnostics and the design of potential vaccines.

Combining genomics and epidemiology to track mumps virus transmission in the United States

Unusually large outbreaks of mumps across the United States in 2016 and 2017 raised questions about the extent of mumps circulation and the relationship between these and prior outbreaks. We paired epidemiological data from public health investigations with analysis of mumps virus whole genome sequences from 201 infected individuals, focusing on Massachusetts university communities. Our analysis suggests continuous, undetected circulation of mumps locally and nationally, including multiple independent introductions into Massachusetts and into individual communities. Despite the presence of these multiple mumps virus lineages, the genomic data show that one lineage has dominated in the US since at least 2006. Widespread transmission was surprising given high vaccination rates, but we found no genetic evidence that variants arising during this outbreak contributed to vaccine escape. Viral genomic data allowed us to reconstruct mumps transmission links not evident from epidemiological data or standard single-gene surveillance efforts and also revealed connections between apparently unrelated mumps outbreaks.

Distinct rates and patterns of spread of the major HIV-1 subtypes in Central and East Africa

Since the ignition of the HIV-1 group M pandemic in the beginning of the 20th century, group M lineages have spread heterogeneously throughout the world. Subtype C spread rapidly through sub-Saharan Africa and is currently the dominant HIV lineage worldwide. Yet the epidemiological and evolutionary circumstances that contributed to its epidemiological expansion remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse 346 novel pol sequences from the DRC to compare the evolutionary dynamics of the main HIV-1 lineages, subtypes A1, C and D. Our results place the origins of subtype C in the 1950s in Mbuji-Mayi, the mining city of southern DRC, while subtypes A1 and D emerged in the capital city of Kinshasa, and subtypes H and J in the less accessible port city of Matadi. Following a 15-year period of local transmission in southern DRC, we find that subtype C spread at least three-fold faster than other subtypes circulating in Central and East Africa. In conclusion, our results shed light on the origins of HIV-1 main lineages and suggest that socio-historical rather than evolutionary factors may have determined the epidemiological fate of subtype C in sub-Saharan Africa.

A Protective Monoclonal Antibody Targets a Site of Vulnerability on the Surface of Rift Valley Fever Virus

The Gn subcomponent of the Gn-Gc assembly that envelopes the human and animal pathogen, Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), is a primary target of the neutralizing antibody response. To better understand the molecular basis for immune recognition, we raised a class of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (nAbs) against RVFV Gn, which exhibited protective efficacy in a mouse infection model. Structural characterization revealed that these nAbs were directed to the membrane-distal domain of RVFV Gn and likely prevented virus entry into a host cell by blocking fusogenic rearrangements of the Gn-Gc lattice. Genome sequence analysis confirmed that this region of the RVFV Gn-Gc assembly was under selective pressure and constituted a site of vulnerability on the virion surface. These data provide a blueprint for the rational design of immunotherapeutics and vaccines capable of preventing RVFV infection and a model for understanding Ab-mediated neutralization of bunyaviruses more generally.

Rapid evolution of Mexican H7N3 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in poultry

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H7N3 has been circulating in poultry in Mexico since 2012 and vaccination has been used to control the disease. In this study, eight Mexican H7N3 HPAI viruses from 2015–2017 were isolated and fully sequenced. No evidence of reassortment was detected with other avian influenza (AI) viruses, but phylogenetic analyses show divergence of all eight gene segments into three genetic clusters by 2015, with 94.94 to 98.78 percent nucleotide homology of the HA genes when compared to the index virus from 2012. The HA protein of viruses from each cluster showed a different number of basic amino acids (n = 5–7) in the cleavage site, and six different patterns at the predicted N-glycosylation sites. Comparison of the sequences of the Mexican lineage H7N3 HPAI viruses and American ancestral wild bird AI viruses to characterize the virus evolutionary dynamics showed that the nucleotide substitution rates in PB2, PB1, PA, HA, NP, and NS genes greatly increased once the virus was introduced into poultry. The global nonsynonymous and synonymous ratios imply strong purifying selection driving the evolution of the virus. Forty-nine positively selected sites out of 171 nonsynonymous mutations were identified in the Mexican H7N3 HPAI viruses, including 7 amino acid changes observed in higher proportion in North American poultry origin AI viruses isolates than in wild bird-origin viruses. Continuous monitoring and molecular characterization of the H7N3 HPAI virus is important for better understanding of the virus evolutionary dynamics and further improving control measures including vaccination.

Extreme mito-nuclear discordance in a peninsular lizard: the role of drift, selection, and climate

Nuclear and mitochondrial genomes coexist within cells but are subject to different tempos and modes of evolution. Evolutionary forces such as drift, mutation, selection, and migration are expected to play fundamental roles in the origin and maintenance of diverged populations; however, divergence may lag between genomes subject to different modes of inheritance and functional specialization. Herein, we explore whole mitochondrial genome data and thousands of nuclear single nucleotide polymorphisms to evidence extreme mito-nuclear discordance in the small black-tailed brush lizard, Urosaurus nigricaudus, of the Peninsula of Baja California, Mexico and southern California, USA, and discuss potential drivers. Results show three deeply divergent mitochondrial lineages dating back to the later Miocene (ca. 5.5 Ma) and Pliocene (ca. 2.8 Ma) that likely followed geographic isolation due to trans-peninsular seaways. This contrasts with very low levels of genetic differentiation in nuclear loci (F_ST < 0.028) between mtDNA lineages. Analyses of protein-coding genes reveal substantial fixed variation between mitochondrial lineages, of which a significant portion comes from non-synonymous mutations. A mixture of drift and selection is likely responsible for the rise of these mtDNA groups, albeit with little evidence of marked differences in climatic niche space between them. Finally, future investigations can look further into the role that mito-nuclear incompatibilities and mating systems play in explaining contrasting nuclear gene flow.

Low Postseroconversion CD4+ T-cell Level Is Associated with Faster Disease Progression and Higher Viral Evolutionary Rate in HIV-2 Infection

The relationship between HIV evolution and disease progression is fundamental to our understanding of HIV immune control and vaccine design. There are no clear definitions for faster and slower HIV-2 disease progression and for the relationship of the rate of progression with HIV-2 evolution. To address the hypothesis that viral evolution is correlated with disease progression in HIV-2 infection, we determined faster and slower disease progression based on follow-up data from a prospective cohort of police officers in Guinea-Bissau. The analysis showed that although the CD4⁺ T-cell level and the decline in the level were independently associated with progression to AIDS, only the CD4⁺ T-cell level or a combined CD4⁺ T-cell level/decline stratification was associated with the rate of HIV-2 evolution. The HIV-2 evolutionary rate was almost twice as high among the faster progressors as among the slower progressors. Importantly, this report defines previously unknown characteristics linking HIV-2 disease progression with virus evolution.

A positive correlation between virus evolutionary rate and disease progression has been shown for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. Much less is known about HIV-2, the second causative agent of AIDS. We analyzed 528 HIV-2 env V1-C3 sequences generated from longitudinal plasma samples that were collected from 16 study participants during a median observation time of 7.9 years (interquartile range [IQR], 5.2 to 14.0 years). Study participants were classified as faster or slower disease progressors based on longitudinal CD4⁺ T-cell data. The HIV-2 evolutionary rate was significantly associated with CD4⁺ T-cell levels and was almost twice as high among the faster progressors as among the slower progressors. Higher evolutionary rates were accounted for by both synonymous and nonsynonymous nucleotide substitutions. Moreover, slow disease progression was associated with stronger positive selection on HIV-2/SIVsm (simian immunodeficiency virus infecting sooty mangabey) surface-exposed conserved residues. This study demonstrated a number of previously unknown characteristics linking HIV-2 disease progression with virus evolution. Some of these findings distinguish HIV-2 from HIV-1 and may contribute to the understanding of differences in pathogenesis.

Structure of the Lassa virus glycan shield provides a model for immunological resistance

Lassa virus is an Old World arenavirus endemic to West Africa that causes severe hemorrhagic fever. Vaccine development has focused on the envelope glycoprotein complex (GPC) that extends from the virion envelope. The often inadequate antibody immune response elicited by both vaccine and natural infection has been, in part, attributed to the abundance of N-linked glycosylation on the GPC. Here, using a virus-like-particle system that presents Lassa virus GPC in a native-like context, we determine the composite population of each of the N-linked glycosylation sites presented on the trimeric GPC spike. Our analysis reveals the presence of underprocessed oligomannose-type glycans, which form punctuated clusters that obscure the proteinous surface of both the GP1 attachment and GP2 fusion glycoprotein subunits of the Lassa virus GPC. These oligomannose clusters are seemingly derived as a result of sterically reduced accessibility to glycan processing enzymes, and limited amino acid diversification around these sites supports their role protecting against the humoral immune response. Combined, our data provide a structure-based blueprint for understanding how glycans render the glycoprotein spikes of Lassa virus and other Old World arenaviruses immunologically resistant targets.

Evolution of HIV-1 within untreated individuals and at the population scale in Uganda

HIV-1 undergoes multiple rounds of error-prone replication between transmission events, resulting in diverse viral populations within and among individuals. In addition, the virus experiences different selective pressures at multiple levels: during the course of infection, at transmission, and among individuals. Disentangling how these evolutionary forces shape the evolution of the virus at the population scale is important for understanding pathogenesis, how drug- and immune-escape variants are likely to spread in populations, and the development of preventive vaccines. To address this, we deep-sequenced two regions of the HIV-1 genome (p24 and gp41) from 34 longitudinally-sampled untreated individuals from Rakai District in Uganda, infected with subtypes A, D, and inter-subtype recombinants. This dataset substantially increases the availability of HIV-1 sequence data that spans multiple years of untreated infection, in particular for different geographical regions and viral subtypes. In line with previous studies, we estimated an approximately five-fold faster rate of evolution at the within-host compared to the population scale for both synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions, and for all subtypes. We determined the extent to which this mismatch in evolutionary rates can be explained by the evolution of the virus towards population-level consensus, or the transmission of viruses similar to those that establish infection within individuals. Our findings indicate that both processes are likely to be important.

Ceftazidime Is the Key Diversification and Selection Driver of VIM-Type Carbapenemases

In recent decades, carbapenems have been considered the last line of antibiotic therapy for Gram-negative bacterial infections. Unfortunately, strains carrying a high diversity of β-lactamases able to hydrolyze carbapenems have emerged in the clinical setting. Among them, VIM β-lactamases have diversified in a bloom of variants. The evolutionary reconstructions performed in this work revealed that, at the end of the 1980s, two independent events involving diversification from VIM-2 and VIM-4 produced at least 25 VIM variants. Later, a third event involving diversification from VIM-1 occurred in the mid-1990s. In a second approach to understanding the emergence of VIM carbapenemases, 44 mutants derived from VIM-2 and VIM-4 were obtained by site-directed mutagenesis based on those positions predicted to be under positive selection. These variants were expressed in an isogenic context. The more-evolved variants yielded increased levels of hydrolytic efficiency toward ceftazidime to a higher degree than toward carbapenems. In fact, an antagonist effect was frequently observed. These results led us to develop an experimental-evolution step. When Escherichia coli strains carrying VIM-2 or VIM-4 were submitted to serial passages at increasing concentrations of carbapenems or ceftazidime, more-efficient new variants (such as VIM-11 and VIM-1, with N165S [bearing a change from N to S at position 165] and R228S mutations, respectively) were only obtained when ceftazidime was present. Therefore, the observed effect of ceftazidime in the diversification and selection of VIM variants might help to explain the recent bloom of carbapenemase diversity, and it also represents another example of the potential universal effect exerted by ceftazidime in the selection of more-efficient β-lactamase variants, as in TEM, CTX-M, or KPC enzymes.

One of the objectives recently proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) Assembly in the global plan on antimicrobial resistance was to improve the understanding and knowledge of antimicrobial resistance. In the present work, we paid attention to the drivers of diversification and selection of new carbapenemases in Gram-negative bacteria, which occupy one of the most critical places in the WHO priority list of antibiotic-resistant microorganisms. Based on evolutionary-reconstruction, site-directed-mutagenesis, and experimental-evolution approaches, we proposed a critical role of ceftazidime exposure in the selection of VIM carbapenemase variants. This surprising finding is also applicable to other β-lactamases, indicating that ceftazidime, and not other antibiotics, might have a universal effect in the diversification of β-lactamases. Our results might help to define future strategies to reconsider the extended use of ceftazidime.

Analysis of HIV-1 envelope evolution suggests antibody-mediated selection of common epitopes among Chinese former plasma donors from a narrow-source outbreak

The HIV-1 envelope mutates rapidly to evade recognition and killing, and is a major target of humoral immune responses and vaccine development. Identification of common epitopes for vaccine development have been complicated by genetic variation on both virus and host levels. We studied HIV-1 envelope gp120 evolution in 12 Chinese former plasma donors infected with a purportedly single founder virus, with the aim of identifying common antibody epitopes under immune selection. We found five amino acid sites under significant positive selection in ≥50% of the study participants, and 22 sites consistent with antibody-mediated selection. Despite strong selection pressure, some sites housed a limited repertoire of amino acids. Structural modelling revealed that most of the variable amino acid sites were located on the exposed distal edge of the Gp120 trimer, whilst invariant sites clustered within the centre of the protein complex. Two sites, flanking the V3 hypervariable loop, represent novel antibody sites. Analysis of HIV-1 evolution in hosts infected with a narrow-source virus may provide insight and novel understanding of common epitopes under antibody-mediated selection. If verified in functional studies, such epitopes could be suitable as targets in vaccine development.

Bayesian phylogenetic and phylodynamic data integration using BEAST 1.10

The Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis by Sampling Trees (BEAST) software package has become a primary tool for Bayesian phylogenetic and phylodynamic inference from genetic sequence data. BEAST unifies molecular phylogenetic reconstruction with complex discrete and continuous trait evolution, divergence-time dating, and coalescent demographic models in an efficient statistical inference engine using Markov chain Monte Carlo integration. A convenient, cross-platform, graphical user interface allows the flexible construction of complex evolutionary analyses.

Unbiased Estimate of Synonymous and Nonsynonymous Substitution Rates with Nonstationary Base Composition

The measurement of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitution rates (dS and dN) is useful for assessing selection operating on protein sequences or for investigating mutational processes affecting genomes. In particular, the ratio dNdS is expected to be a good proxy for ω, the ratio of fixation probabilities of nonsynonymous mutations relative to that of neutral mutations. Standard methods for estimating dN, dS, or ω rely on the assumption that the base composition of sequences is at the equilibrium of the evolutionary process. In many clades, this assumption of stationarity is in fact incorrect, and we show here through simulations and analyses of empirical data that nonstationarity biases the estimate of dN, dS, and ω. We show that the bias in the estimate of ω can be fixed by explicitly taking into consideration nonstationarity in the modeling of codon evolution, in a maximum likelihood framework. Moreover, we propose an exact method for estimating dN and dS on branches, based on stochastic mapping, that can take into account nonstationarity. This method can be directly applied to any kind of codon evolution model, as long as neutrality is clearly parameterized.

Genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B viruses on a global scale

The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally.

Global genetic variation and transmission dynamics of H9N2 avian influenza virus

The H9N2 influenza viruses are extensively circulating in the poultry population, and variable genotypes can be generated through mutation, recombination and reassortment, which may be better adapted to infect a new host, resist drug treatment or escape immune pressure. The LPAI H9N2 viruses have the potential to evolve towards high levels of virulence in human. Some studies about the regional dispersal were reported, but global dissemination and the drivers of the virus are poorly understood, particularly at the genome scale. Here, we have analysed all eight gene segments of 168 H9N2 genomes sampled randomly aiming to provide a panoramic framework for better understanding the genesis and genetic variation of the viruses, and utilized phylogeography and spatial epidemiology approaches to uncover the effects of the genetic variation, predictors and spread of H9N2 viruses. We found that more frequent reassortment events involve segments PA, NP and NS, and 21 isolates have possible mosaic structure resulting from recombination events. Estimates of gene-specific global dN/dS ratios showed that all genes were subject to purifying selection. However, a total of 13 sites were detected under positive selection by at least two of three methods, which located within segments HA, NA, M2, NS1 and PA. Additionally, we inferred that NA segment has the highest rate of nucleotide substitution, and its tMRCA estimate is the youngest than the remaining segments' inference. About the spatial history, air transportation of human was identified as the predominant driver of global viral migration using GLM analysis, and economic factors and geographical distance were the modest predictors. Higher migration rates were estimated between five pairs of regions (>0.01) indicating the frequent migration of the viruses between discrete geographical locations. Further, our Markov jumps analysis showed that viral migration is more frequent between Southern China and Northern China, and high rate of gene flow was observed between America and East Asia. Moreover, the America together with Southeast Asia acted as the primary hubs of global transmission, forming the trunk of evolutionary tree. These findings suggested a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology and human behaviour.

The emergence and evolution of influenza A (H1α) viruses in swine in Canada and the United States

Swine are a key reservoir host for influenza A viruses (IAVs), with the potential to cause global pandemics in humans. Gaps in surveillance in many of the world's largest swine populations impede our understanding of how novel viruses emerge and expand their spatial range in pigs. Although US swine are intensively sampled, little is known about IAV diversity in Canada's population of ~12 million pigs. By sequencing 168 viruses from multiple regions of Canada, our study reveals that IAV diversity has been underestimated in Canadian pigs for many years. Critically, a new H1 clade has emerged in Canada (H1α-3), with a two-amino acid deletion at H1 positions 146-147, that experienced rapid growth in Manitoba's swine herds during 2014-2015. H1α-3 viruses also exhibit a higher capacity to invade US swine herds, resulting in multiple recent introductions of the virus into the US Heartland following large-scale movements of pigs in this direction. From the Heartland, H1α-3 viruses have disseminated onward to both the east and west coasts of the United States, and may become established in Appalachia. These findings demonstrate how long-distance trading of live pigs facilitates the spread of IAVs, increasing viral genetic diversity and complicating pathogen control. The proliferation of novel H1α-3 viruses also highlights the need for expanded surveillance in a Canadian swine population that has long been overlooked, and may have implications for vaccine design.

Accurate quantification of within- and between-host HBV evolutionary rates requires explicit transmission chain modelling

Analyses of virus evolution in known transmission chains have the potential to elucidate the impact of transmission dynamics on the viral evolutionary rate and its difference within and between hosts. Lin et al. (2015, Journal of Virology, 89/7: 3512–22) recently investigated the evolutionary history of hepatitis B virus in a transmission chain and postulated that the ‘colonization–adaptation–transmission’ model can explain the differential impact of transmission on synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates. Here, we revisit this dataset using a full probabilistic Bayesian phylogenetic framework that adequately accounts for the non-independence of sequence data when estimating evolutionary parameters. Examination of the transmission chain data under a flexible coalescent prior reveals a general inconsistency between the estimated timings and clustering patterns and the known transmission history, highlighting the need to incorporate host transmission information in the analysis. Using an explicit genealogical transmission chain model, we find strong support for a transmission-associated decrease of the overall evolutionary rate. However, in contrast to the initially reported larger transmission effect on non-synonymous substitution rate, we find a similar decrease in both non-synonymous and synonymous substitution rates that cannot be adequately explained by the colonization-adaptation-transmission model. An alternative explanation may involve a transmission/establishment advantage of hepatitis B virus variants that have accumulated fewer within-host substitutions, perhaps by spending more time in the covalently closed circular DNA state between each round of viral replication. More generally, this study illustrates that ignoring phylogenetic relationships can lead to misleading evolutionary estimates.

Calculating site-specific evolutionary rates at the amino-acid or codon level yields similar rate estimates

Site-specific evolutionary rates can be estimated from codon sequences or from amino-acid sequences. For codon sequences, the most popular methods use some variation of the dN∕dS ratio. For amino-acid sequences, one widely-used method is called Rate4Site, and it assigns a relative conservation score to each site in an alignment. How site-wise dN∕dS values relate to Rate4Site scores is not known. Here we elucidate the relationship between these two rate measurements. We simulate sequences with known dN∕dS, using either dN∕dS models or mutation–selection models for simulation. We then infer Rate4Site scores on the simulated alignments, and we compare those scores to either true or inferred dN∕dS values on the same alignments. We find that Rate4Site scores generally correlate well with true dN∕dS, and the correlation strengths increase in alignments with greater sequence divergence and more taxa. Moreover, Rate4Site scores correlate very well with inferred (as opposed to true) dN∕dS values, even for small alignments with little divergence. Finally, we verify this relationship between Rate4Site and dN∕dS in a variety of empirical datasets. We conclude that codon-level and amino-acid-level analysis frameworks are directly comparable and yield very similar inferences.

Testing for the Occurrence of Selective Episodes During the Divergence of Otophysan Fishes: Insights from Mitogenomics

How natural selection shapes biodiversity constitutes a topic of renewed interest during the last few decades. The division Otophysi comprises approximately two-thirds of freshwater fish diversity and probably underwent an extensive adaptive radiation derived from a single invasion of the supercontinent Pangaea, giving place to the evolution of the main five Otophysan lineages during a short period of time. Little is known about the factors involved in the processes that lead to lineage diversification among this group of fishes and identifying directional selection acting over protein-coding genes could offer clues about the processes acting on species diversification. The main objective of this study was to explore the otophysan mitochondrial genome evolution, in order to account for the possible signatures of selective events in this lineage, and to explore for the functional connotations of these molecular substitutions. Mainly, three different approaches were used: the "ω-based" BS-REL and MEME methods, implemented in the DATAMONKEY web server, and analysis of selection on amino acid properties, implemented in the software TreeSAAP. We found evidence of selective episodes along several branches of the evolutionary history of othophysan fishes. Analyses carried out using the BS-REL algorithm suggest episodic diversifying selection at basal branches of the otophysan lineage, which was also supported by analyses implemented in MEME and TreeSAAP. These results suggest that throughout the Siluriformes radiation, an important number of adaptive changes occurred in their mitochondrial genome. The metabolic consequences and ecological correlates of these molecular substitutions should be addressed in future studies.

Calculating Higher-Order Moments of Phylogenetic Stochastic Mapping Summaries in Linear Time

Stochastic mapping is a simulation-based method for probabilistically mapping substitution histories onto phylogenies according to continuous-time Markov models of evolution. This technique can be used to infer properties of the evolutionary process on the phylogeny and, unlike parsimony-based mapping, conditions on the observed data to randomly draw substitution mappings that do not necessarily require the minimum number of events on a tree. Most stochastic mapping applications simulate substitution mappings only to estimate the mean and/or variance of two commonly used mapping summaries: the number of particular types of substitutions (labeled substitution counts) and the time spent in a particular group of states (labeled dwelling times) on the tree. Fast, simulation-free algorithms for calculating the mean of stochastic mapping summaries exist. Importantly, these algorithms scale linearly in the number of tips/leaves of the phylogenetic tree. However, to our knowledge, no such algorithm exists for calculating higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries. We present one such simulation-free dynamic programming algorithm that calculates prior and posterior mapping variances and scales linearly in the number of phylogeny tips. Our procedure suggests a general framework that can be used to efficiently compute higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries without simulations. We demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithm by extending previously developed statistical tests for rate variation across sites and for detecting evolutionarily conserved regions in genomic sequences.

A Comparison of One-Rate and Two-Rate Inference Frameworks for Site-Specific dN/dS Estimation

Two broad paradigms exist for inferring [Formula: see text] the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitution rates, from coding sequences: (i) a one-rate approach, where [Formula: see text] is represented with a single parameter, or (ii) a two-rate approach, where [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are estimated separately. The performances of these two approaches have been well studied in the specific context of proper model specification, i.e., when the inference model matches the simulation model. By contrast, the relative performances of one-rate vs. two-rate parameterizations when applied to data generated according to a different mechanism remain unclear. Here, we compare the relative merits of one-rate and two-rate approaches in the specific context of model misspecification by simulating alignments with mutation-selection models rather than with [Formula: see text]-based models. We find that one-rate frameworks generally infer more accurate [Formula: see text] point estimates, even when [Formula: see text] varies among sites. In other words, modeling [Formula: see text] variation may substantially reduce accuracy of [Formula: see text] point estimates. These results appear to depend on the selective constraint operating at a given site. For sites under strong purifying selection ([Formula: see text]), one-rate and two-rate models show comparable performances. However, one-rate models significantly outperform two-rate models for sites under moderate-to-weak purifying selection. We attribute this distinction to the fact that, for these more quickly evolving sites, a given substitution is more likely to be nonsynonymous than synonymous. The data will therefore be relatively enriched for nonsynonymous changes, and modeling [Formula: see text] contributes excessive noise to [Formula: see text] estimates. We additionally find that high levels of divergence among sequences, rather than the number of sequences in the alignment, are more critical for obtaining precise point estimates.

Identifying predictors of time-inhomogeneous viral evolutionary processes

Various factors determine the rate at which mutations are generated and fixed in viral genomes. Viral evolutionary rates may vary over the course of a single persistent infection and can reflect changes in replication rates and selective dynamics. Dedicated statistical inference approaches are required to understand how the complex interplay of these processes shapes the genetic diversity and divergence in viral populations. Although evolutionary models accommodating a high degree of complexity can now be formalized, adequately informing these models by potentially sparse data, and assessing the association of the resulting estimates with external predictors, remains a major challenge. In this article, we present a novel Bayesian evolutionary inference method, which integrates multiple potential predictors and tests their association with variation in the absolute rates of synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions along the evolutionary history. We consider clinical and virological measures as predictors, but also changes in population size trajectories that are simultaneously inferred using coalescent modelling. We demonstrate the potential of our method in an application to within-host HIV-1 sequence data sampled throughout the infection of multiple patients. While analyses of individual patient populations lack statistical power, we detect significant evidence for an abrupt drop in non-synonymous rates in late stage infection and a more gradual increase in synonymous rates over the course of infection in a joint analysis across all patients. The former is predicted by the immune relaxation hypothesis while the latter may be in line with increasing replicative fitness during the asymptomatic stage.

Smoothed Bootstrap Aggregation for Assessing Selection Pressure at Amino Acid Sites

To detect positive selection at individual amino acid sites, most methods use an empirical Bayes approach. After parameters of a Markov process of codon evolution are estimated via maximum likelihood, they are passed to Bayes formula to compute the posterior probability that a site evolved under positive selection. A difficulty with this approach is that parameter estimates with large errors can negatively impact Bayesian classification. By assigning priors to some parameters, Bayes Empirical Bayes (BEB) mitigates this problem. However, as implemented, it imposes uniform priors, which causes it to be overly conservative in some cases. When standard regularity conditions are not met and parameter estimates are unstable, inference, even under BEB, can be negatively impacted. We present an alternative to BEB called smoothed bootstrap aggregation (SBA), which bootstraps site patterns from an alignment of protein coding DNA sequences to accommodate the uncertainty in the parameter estimates. We show that deriving the correction for parameter uncertainty from the data in hand, in combination with kernel smoothing techniques, improves site specific inference of positive selection. We compare BEB to SBA by simulation and real data analysis. Simulation results show that SBA balances accuracy and power at least as well as BEB, and when parameter estimates are unstable, the performance gap between BEB and SBA can widen in favor of SBA. SBA is applicable to a wide variety of other inference problems in molecular evolution.

Quantifying evolutionary constraints on B-cell affinity maturation

The antibody repertoire of each individual is continuously updated by the evolutionary process of B-cell receptor (BCR) mutation and selection. It has recently become possible to gain detailed information concerning this process through high-throughput sequencing. Here, we develop modern statistical molecular evolution methods for the analysis of B-cell sequence data, and then apply them to a very deep short-read dataset of BCRs. We find that the substitution process is conserved across individuals but varies significantly across gene segments. We investigate selection on BCRs using a novel method that side-steps the difficulties encountered by previous work in differentiating between selection and motif-driven mutation; this is done through stochastic mapping and empirical Bayes estimators that compare the evolution of in-frame and out-of-frame rearrangements. We use this new method to derive a per-residue map of selection, which provides a more nuanced view of the constraints on framework and variable regions.

The global antigenic diversity of swine influenza A viruses

Swine influenza presents a substantial disease burden for pig populations worldwide and poses a potential pandemic threat to humans. There is considerable diversity in both H1 and H3 influenza viruses circulating in swine due to the frequent introductions of viruses from humans and birds coupled with geographic segregation of global swine populations. Much of this diversity is characterized genetically but the antigenic diversity of these viruses is poorly understood. Critically, the antigenic diversity shapes the risk profile of swine influenza viruses in terms of their epizootic and pandemic potential. Here, using the most comprehensive set of swine influenza virus antigenic data compiled to date, we quantify the antigenic diversity of swine influenza viruses on a multi-continental scale. The substantial antigenic diversity of recently circulating viruses in different parts of the world adds complexity to the risk profiles for the movement of swine and the potential for swine-derived infections in humans.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12217.001

Influenza viruses, commonly called flu, infect millions of people and animals every year and occasionally causes pandemics in humans. The immune system can neutralise flu viruses by recognising the proteins on the virus surface, generically referred to as antigens. These antigens change as flu viruses evolve to escape detection by the immune system. These changes tend to be relatively small such that exposure to one flu virus generates immunity that is still effective against other related flu viruses. However, over time, the accumulation of these small changes can result in larger differences such that prior infections no longer provide protection against the new virus.

Influenza A viruses infect a wide variety of birds and mammals. Viruses can also transmit from one species to another, which may result in the introduction of viruses with antigens that are new to the recipient species and which have the potential to cause substantial outbreaks. Pig flu viruses have long been considered to be a potential risk for human pandemic viruses and were the source of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus. Importantly, humans often transmit flu viruses to pigs. Understanding the dynamics and consequences of this two-way transmission is important for designing effective strategies to detect and respond to new strains of flu.

Influenza A viruses of the H1 and H3 subtypes circulate widely in pigs. However, it was poorly understood how closely related swine and human viruses circulating in different regions were to one another and how much the antigens varied between the different viruses.

Lewis, Russell et al. have now analysed the antigenic variation of hundreds of H1 and H3 viruses from pigs on multiple continents. The antigenic diversity of recent swine flu viruses resembles the diversity of H1 and H3 viruses observed in humans over the last 40 years. A key factor driving the diversity of the H1 and H3 viruses in pigs is the frequent introduction of human viruses to pigs. In contrast, only one flu virus from a bird had contributed to the observed antigenic diversity in pigs in a substantial way.

Once in pigs, human-derived flu viruses continue to evolve their antigens. This results in a tremendous diversity of flu viruses that can be transmitted to other pigs and also to humans. These flu viruses could pose a serious risk to public health because they are no longer similar to the current human flu strains. These findings have important implications not only for developing flu vaccines for pigs but also for informing the development of more-effective surveillance and disease-control strategies to prevent the spread of new flu variants.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12217.002

The Diversity and Molecular Evolution of B-Cell Receptors during Infection

B-cell receptors (BCRs) are membrane-bound immunoglobulins that recognize and bind foreign proteins (antigens). BCRs are formed through random somatic changes of germline DNA, creating a vast repertoire of unique sequences that enable individuals to recognize a diverse range of antigens. After encountering antigen for the first time, BCRs undergo a process of affinity maturation, whereby cycles of rapid somatic mutation and selection lead to improved antigen binding. This constitutes an accelerated evolutionary process that takes place over days or weeks. Next-generation sequencing of the gene regions that determine BCR binding has begun to reveal the diversity and dynamics of BCR repertoires in unprecedented detail. Although this new type of sequence data has the potential to revolutionize our understanding of infection dynamics, quantitative analysis is complicated by the unique biology and high diversity of BCR sequences. Models and concepts from molecular evolution and phylogenetics that have been applied successfully to rapidly evolving pathogen populations are increasingly being adopted to study BCR diversity and divergence within individuals. However, BCR dynamics may violate key assumptions of many standard evolutionary methods, as they do not descend from a single ancestor, and experience biased mutation. Here, we review the application of evolutionary models to BCR repertoires and discuss the issues we believe need be addressed for this interdisciplinary field to flourish.

Causes of evolutionary rate variation among protein sites

It has long been recognized that certain sites within a protein, such as sites in the protein core or catalytic residues in enzymes, are evolutionarily more conserved than other sites. However, our understanding of rate variation among sites remains surprisingly limited. Recent progress to address this includes the development of a wide array of reliable methods to estimate site-specific substitution rates from sequence alignments. In addition, several molecular traits have been identified that correlate with site-specific mutation rates, and novel mechanistic biophysical models have been proposed to explain the observed correlations. Nonetheless, current models explain, at best, approximately 60% of the observed variance, highlighting the limitations of current methods and models and the need for new research directions.

Positive Selection in CD8+ T-Cell Epitopes of Influenza Virus Nucleoprotein Revealed by a Comparative Analysis of Human and Swine Viral Lineages

Numerous experimental studies have demonstrated that CD8(+) T cells contribute to immunity against influenza by limiting viral replication. It is therefore surprising that rigorous statistical tests have failed to find evidence of positive selection in the epitopes targeted by CD8(+) T cells. Here we use a novel computational approach to test for selection in CD8(+) T-cell epitopes. We define all epitopes in the nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix protein (M1) with experimentally identified human CD8(+) T-cell responses and then compare the evolution of these epitopes in parallel lineages of human and swine influenza viruses that have been diverging since roughly 1918. We find a significant enrichment of substitutions that alter human CD8(+) T-cell epitopes in NP of human versus swine influenza virus, consistent with the idea that these epitopes are under positive selection. Furthermore, we show that epitope-altering substitutions in human influenza virus NP are enriched on the trunk versus the branches of the phylogenetic tree, indicating that viruses that acquire these mutations have a selective advantage. However, even in human influenza virus NP, sites in T-cell epitopes evolve more slowly than do nonepitope sites, presumably because these epitopes are under stronger inherent functional constraint. Overall, our work demonstrates that there is clear selection from CD8(+) T cells in human influenza virus NP and illustrates how comparative analyses of viral lineages from different hosts can identify positive selection that is otherwise obscured by strong functional constraint.

IMPORTANCE

There is a strong interest in correlates of anti-influenza immunity that are protective against diverse virus strains. CD8(+) T cells provide such broad immunity, since they target conserved viral proteins. An important question is whether T-cell immunity is sufficiently strong to drive influenza virus evolution. Although many studies have shown that T cells limit viral replication in animal models and are associated with decreased symptoms in humans, no studies have proven with statistical significance that influenza virus evolves under positive selection to escape T cells. Here we use comparisons of human and swine influenza viruses to rigorously demonstrate that human influenza virus evolves under pressure to fix mutations in the nucleoprotein that promote escape from T cells. We further show that viruses with these mutations have a selective advantage since they are preferentially located on the "trunk" of the phylogenetic tree. Overall, our results show that CD8(+) T cells targeting nucleoprotein play an important role in shaping influenza virus evolution.