The benefit of adding polygenic risk scores, lifestyle factors, and breast density to family history and genetic status for breast cancer risk and surveillance classification of unaffected women from germline CHEK2 c.1100delC families

To determine the changes in surveillance category by adding a polygenic risk score based on 311 breast cancer (BC)-associated variants (PRS311), questionnaire-based risk factors and breast density on personalized BC risk in unaffected women from Dutch CHEK2 c.1100delC families. In total, 117 unaffected women (58 heterozygotes and 59 non-carriers) from CHEK2 families were included. Blood-derived DNA samples were genotyped with the GSAMDv3-array to determine PRS311. Lifetime BC risk was calculated in CanRisk, which uses data from the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA). Women, were categorized into three surveillance groups. The surveillance advice was reclassified in 37.9 % of heterozygotes and 32.2 % of non-carriers after adding PRS311. Including questionnaire-based risk factors resulted in an additional change in 20.0 % of heterozygotes and 13.2 % of non-carriers; and a subanalysis showed that adding breast density on top shifted another 17.9 % of heterozygotes and 33.3 % of non-carriers. Overall, the majority of heterozygotes were reclassified to a less intensive surveillance, while non-carriers would require intensified surveillance. The addition of PRS311, questionnaire-based risk factors and breast density to family history resulted in a more personalized BC surveillance advice in CHEK2-families, which may lead to more efficient use of surveillance.

Association of the CHEK2 c.1100delC variant, radiotherapy, and systemic treatment with contralateral breast cancer risk and breast cancer-specific survival

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer (BC) patients with a germline CHEK2 c.1100delC variant have an increased risk of contralateral BC (CBC) and worse BC-specific survival (BCSS) compared to non-carriers.

AIM

To assessed the associations of CHEK2 c.1100delC, radiotherapy, and systemic treatment with CBC risk and BCSS.

METHODS

Analyses were based on 82,701 women diagnosed with a first primary invasive BC including 963 CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers; median follow-up was 9.1 years. Differential associations with treatment by CHEK2 c.1100delC status were tested by including interaction terms in a multivariable Cox regression model. A multi-state model was used for further insight into the relation between CHEK2 c.1100delC status, treatment, CBC risk and death.

RESULTS

There was no evidence for differential associations of therapy with CBC risk by CHEK2 c.1100delC status. The strongest association with reduced CBC risk was observed for the combination of chemotherapy and endocrine therapy [HR (95% CI): 0.66 (0.55-0.78)]. No association was observed with radiotherapy. Results from the multi-state model showed shorter BCSS for CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers versus non-carriers also after accounting for CBC occurrence [HR (95% CI): 1.30 (1.09-1.56)].

CONCLUSION

Systemic therapy was associated with reduced CBC risk irrespective of CHEK2 c.1100delC status. Moreover, CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers had shorter BCSS, which appears not to be fully explained by their CBC risk.

Spectrum and Frequency of Germline FANCM Protein-Truncating Variants in 44,803 European Female Breast Cancer Cases

FANCM germline protein truncating variants (PTVs) are moderate-risk factors for ER-negative breast cancer. We previously described the spectrum of FANCM PTVs in 114 European breast cancer cases. In the present, larger cohort, we report the spectrum and frequency of four common and 62 rare FANCM PTVs found in 274 carriers detected among 44,803 breast cancer cases. We confirmed that p.Gln1701* was the most common PTV in Northern Europe with lower frequencies in Southern Europe. In contrast, p.Gly1906Alafs*12 was the most common PTV in Southern Europe with decreasing frequencies in Central and Northern Europe. We verified that p.Arg658* was prevalent in Central Europe and had highest frequencies in Eastern Europe. We also confirmed that the fourth most common PTV, p.Gln498Thrfs*7, might be a founder variant from Lithuania. Based on the frequency distribution of the carriers of rare PTVs, we showed that the FANCM PTVs spectra in Southwestern and Central Europe were much more heterogeneous than those from Northeastern Europe. These findings will inform the development of more efficient FANCM genetic testing strategies for breast cancer cases from specific European populations.

Breast cancer genomes from CHEK2 c.1100delC mutation carriers lack somatic TP53 mutations and display a unique structural variant size distribution profile

BACKGROUND

CHEK2 c.1100delC was the first moderate-risk breast cancer (BC) susceptibility allele discovered. Despite several genomic, transcriptomic and functional studies, however, it is still unclear how exactly CHEK2 c.1100delC promotes tumorigenesis. Since the mutational landscape of a tumor reflects the processes that have operated on its development, the aim of this study was to uncover the somatic genomic landscape of CHEK2-associated BC.

METHODS

We sequenced primary BC (pBC) and normal genomes of 20 CHEK2 c.1100delC mutation carriers as well as their pBC transcriptomes. Including pre-existing cohorts, we exhaustively compared CHEK2 pBC genomes to those from BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, those that displayed homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) and ER- and ER+ pBCs, totaling to 574 pBC genomes. Findings were validated in 517 metastatic BC genomes subdivided into the same subgroups. Transcriptome data from 168 ER+ pBCs were used to derive a TP53-mutant gene expression signature and perform cluster analysis with CHEK2 BC transcriptomes. Finally, clinical outcome of CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers was compared with BC patients displaying somatic TP53 mutations in two well-described retrospective cohorts totaling to 942 independent pBC cases.

RESULTS

BC genomes from CHEK2 mutation carriers were most similar to ER+ BC genomes and least similar to those of BRCA1/2 mutation carriers in terms of tumor mutational burden as well as mutational signatures. Moreover, CHEK2 BC genomes did not show any evidence of HRD. Somatic TP53 mutation frequency and the size distribution of structural variants (SVs), however, were different compared to ER+ BC. Interestingly, BC genomes with bi-allelic CHEK2 inactivation lacked somatic TP53 mutations and transcriptomic analysis indicated a shared biology with TP53 mutant BC. Moreover, CHEK2 BC genomes had an increased frequency of > 1 Mb deletions, inversions and tandem duplications with peaks at specific sizes. The high chromothripsis frequency among CHEK2 BC genomes appeared, however, not associated with this unique SV size distribution profile.

CONCLUSIONS

CHEK2 BC genomes are most similar to ER+ BC genomes, but display unique features that may further unravel CHEK2-driven tumorigenesis. Increased insight into this mechanism could explain the shorter survival of CHEK2 mutation carriers that is likely driven by intrinsic tumor aggressiveness rather than endocrine resistance.

Clinical applicability of the Polygenic Risk Score for breast cancer risk prediction in familial cases

BACKGROUND

Common low-risk variants are presently not used to guide clinical management of familial breast cancer (BC). We explored the additive impact of a 313-variant-based Polygenic Risk Score (PRS₃₁₃) relative to standard gene testing in non-BRCA1/2 Dutch BC families.

METHODS

We included 3918 BC cases from 3492 Dutch non-BRCA1/2 BC families and 3474 Dutch population controls. The association of the standardised PRS₃₁₃ with BC was estimated using a logistic regression model, adjusted for pedigree-based family history. Family history of the controls was imputed for this analysis. SEs were corrected to account for relatedness of individuals. Using the BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) V.5 model, lifetime risks were retrospectively calculated with and without individual PRS₃₁₃. For 2586 cases and 2584 controls, the carrier status of pathogenic variants (PVs) in ATM, CHEK2 and PALB2 was known.

RESULTS

The family history-adjusted PRS₃₁₃ was significantly associated with BC (per SD OR=1.97, 95% CI 1.84 to 2.11). Including the PRS₃₁₃ in BOADICEA family-based risk prediction would have changed screening recommendations in up to 27%, 36% and 34% of cases according to BC screening guidelines from the USA, UK and the Netherlands (National Comprehensive Cancer Network, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, and Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation), respectively. For the population controls, without information on family history, this was up to 39%, 44% and 58%, respectively. Among carriers of PVs in known moderate BC susceptibility genes, the PRS₃₁₃ had the largest impact for CHEK2 and ATM.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the application of the PRS₃₁₃ in risk prediction for genetically uninformative BC families and families with a PV in moderate BC risk genes.

Association of the CHEK2 c.1100delC variant, radiotherapy, and systemic treatment with contralateral breast cancer risk and breast cancer-specific survival

Breast cancer (BC) patients with a germline CHEK2 c.1100delC variant have an increased risk of contralateral BC (CBC) and worse BC-specific survival (BCSS) compared to non-carriers. We aimed to assess the associations of CHEK2 c.1100delC, radiotherapy, and systemic treatment with CBC risk and BCSS. Analyses were based on 82,701 women diagnosed with invasive BC including 963 CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers; median follow-up was 9.1 years. Differential associations of treatment by CHEK2 c.1100delC status were tested by including interaction terms in a multivariable Cox regression model. A multi-state model was used for further insight into the relation between CHEK2 c.1100delC status, treatment, CBC risk and death. There was no evidence for differential associations of therapy with CBC risk by CHEK2 c.1100delC status The strongest association with reduced CBC risk was observed for the combination of chemotherapy and endocrine therapy [HR(95%CI): 0.66 (0.55-0.78)]. No association was observed with radiotherapy. Results from the multi-state model showed shorter BCSS for CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers versus non-carriers also after accounting for CBC occurrence [HR(95%CI) :1.30 (1.09-1.56)]. In conclusion, systemic therapy was associated with reduced CBC risk irrespective of CHEK2 c.1100delC status. Moreover, CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers had shorter BCSS, which appears not to be fully explained by their CBC risk. (Main MS: 3201 words).

FANCM missense variants and breast cancer risk: a case-control association study of 75,156 European women

Evidence from literature, including the BRIDGES study, indicates that germline protein truncating variants (PTVs) in FANCM confer moderately increased risk of ER-negative and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), especially for women with a family history of the disease. Association between FANCM missense variants (MVs) and breast cancer risk has been postulated. In this study, we further used the BRIDGES study to test 689 FANCM MVs for association with breast cancer risk, overall and in ER-negative and TNBC subtypes, in 39,885 cases (7566 selected for family history) and 35,271 controls of European ancestry. Sixteen common MVs were tested individually; the remaining rare 673 MVs were tested by burden analyses considering their position and pathogenicity score. We also conducted a meta-analysis of our results and those from published studies. We did not find evidence for association for any of the 16 variants individually tested. The rare MVs were significantly associated with increased risk of ER-negative breast cancer by burden analysis comparing familial cases to controls (OR = 1.48; 95% CI 1.07-2.04; P = 0.017). Higher ORs were found for the subgroup of MVs located in functional domains or predicted to be pathogenic. The meta-analysis indicated that FANCM MVs overall are associated with breast cancer risk (OR = 1.22; 95% CI 1.08-1.38; P = 0.002). Our results support the definition from previous analyses of FANCM as a moderate-risk breast cancer gene and provide evidence that FANCM MVs could be low/moderate risk factors for ER-negative and TNBC subtypes. Further genetic and functional analyses are necessary to clarify better the increased risks due to FANCM MVs.

Uncovering the Contribution of Moderate-Penetrance Susceptibility Genes to Breast Cancer by Whole-Exome Sequencing and Targeted Enrichment Sequencing of Candidate Genes in Women of European Ancestry

Rare variants in at least 10 genes, including BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, and CHEK2, are associated with increased risk of breast cancer; however, these variants, in combination with common variants identified through genome-wide association studies, explain only a fraction of the familial aggregation of the disease. To identify further susceptibility genes, we performed a two-stage whole-exome sequencing study. In the discovery stage, samples from 1528 breast cancer cases enriched for breast cancer susceptibility and 3733 geographically matched unaffected controls were sequenced. Using five different filtering and gene prioritization strategies, 198 genes were selected for further validation. These genes, and a panel of 32 known or suspected breast cancer susceptibility genes, were assessed in a validation set of 6211 cases and 6019 controls for their association with risk of breast cancer overall, and by estrogen receptor (ER) disease subtypes, using gene burden tests applied to loss-of-function and rare missense variants. Twenty genes showed nominal evidence of association (p-value < 0.05) with either overall or subtype-specific breast cancer. Our study had the statistical power to detect susceptibility genes with effect sizes similar to ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2, however, it was underpowered to identify genes in which susceptibility variants are rarer or confer smaller effect sizes. Larger sample sizes would be required in order to identify such genes.

Abstract 3627: The genomic landscape of breast cancers from CHEK2 c.1100delC mutation carriers

Women who carry the germline CHEK2 c.1100delC mutation have a 2.3-fold increased life-time risk to develop breast cancer (BC). Their BCs are mostly of the luminal/ER+ subtype and diagnosed at a younger age than BCs in sporadic patients. BC patients carrying a CHEK2 c.1100delC mutation are at an increased risk of developing a contralateral BC and have a worse survival compared to sporadic BC patients although resistance to either endocrine or chemotherapy does not appear to play a role herein. To unravel the biological mechanism by which CHEK2 c.1100delC exerts its tumorigenic potential, whole genome sequencing was performed of matching normal and primary BC (pBC) DNA from twenty female CHEK2 c.1100delC mutation carriers at Hartwig Medical Foundation (HMF). We compared the somatic pBC genomes of these twenty patients to 560 pBC genomes from the International Cancer Genome Consortium including 30 BRCA1 and 25 BRCA2 mutation carriers and 329 sporadic ER+ pBC patients. The validation cohort consisted of 517 metastatic BC (mBC) genomes from the Center for Personalized Cancer Treatment that were sequenced at HMF and included 24 mBC genomes from CHEK2 c.1100delC mutation carriers. We found that CHEK2 pBC and mBC genomes were dissimilar to pBC and mBC genomes of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers and did not show evidence of a homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) phenotype. Instead, CHEK2 pBC and mBC genomes were very similar to genomes of sporadic ER+ pBC and mBC patients in terms of tumor mutational burden, single and double base substitution signatures as well as small insertion/deletion signatures. The size distribution of structural variants (SVs), however, was different for CHEK2 pBCs and mBCs compared with ER+ as well as BRCA1 and BRCA2 pBCs and mBCs. Importantly, the CHEK2 c.1100delC mutation was associated with an increased frequency of larger (&gt; 1Mb) deletions, inversions and tandem duplications (TDs) with peaks at specific sizes. Although CHEK2 mBC genomes more frequently harbored chromothripsis compared with other mBC subtypes, this did not explain the CHEK2-specific SV size distribution pattern. Moreover, increased chromothripsis in CHEK2 mBC genomes was not associated with a higher frequency of somatic TP53 mutations. In fact, we did not observe any somatic TP53 mutations among CHEK2 pBC and mBC genomes. This mutual exclusiveness suggests CHEK2-driven tumorigenesis could act through the TP53 signaling pathway. To conclude, CHEK2 BC genomes do not harbor somatic TP53 mutations and display a unique SV size distribution profile. Moreover, the absence of an HRD phenotype among CHEK2 BC genomes suggests PARP inhibitors will not be effective for treatment of BC in CHEK2 c.1100delC mutation carriers. Increasing knowledge of the mechanisms of CHEK2-driven tumorigenesis may ultimately lead to the development of tailored strategies for treatment and prevention of BC for CHEK2 mutation carriers.

Citation Format: Marcel Smid, Marjanka K. Schmidt, Wendy J. Prager - van der Smissen, Kirsten Ruigrok - Ritstier, Sten Cornelissen, Maartje A. Schreurs, J. Margriet Collee, Muriel A. Adank, Maartje J. Hooning, John W. Martens, Antoinette Hollestelle. The genomic landscape of breast cancers from CHEK2 c.1100delC mutation carriers [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 3627.

Breast cancer risks associated with missense variants in breast cancer susceptibility genes

BACKGROUND

Protein truncating variants in ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, and PALB2 are associated with increased breast cancer risk, but risks associated with missense variants in these genes are uncertain.

METHODS

We analyzed data on 59,639 breast cancer cases and 53,165 controls from studies participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium BRIDGES project. We sampled training (80%) and validation (20%) sets to analyze rare missense variants in ATM (1146 training variants), BRCA1 (644), BRCA2 (1425), CHEK2 (325), and PALB2 (472). We evaluated breast cancer risks according to five in silico prediction-of-deleteriousness algorithms, functional protein domain, and frequency, using logistic regression models and also mixture models in which a subset of variants was assumed to be risk-associated.

RESULTS

The most predictive in silico algorithms were Helix (BRCA1, BRCA2 and CHEK2) and CADD (ATM). Increased risks appeared restricted to functional protein domains for ATM (FAT and PIK domains) and BRCA1 (RING and BRCT domains). For ATM, BRCA1, and BRCA2, data were compatible with small subsets (approximately 7%, 2%, and 0.6%, respectively) of rare missense variants giving similar risk to those of protein truncating variants in the same gene. For CHEK2, data were more consistent with a large fraction (approximately 60%) of rare missense variants giving a lower risk (OR 1.75, 95% CI (1.47-2.08)) than CHEK2 protein truncating variants. There was little evidence for an association with risk for missense variants in PALB2. The best fitting models were well calibrated in the validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

These results will inform risk prediction models and the selection of candidate variants for functional assays and could contribute to the clinical reporting of gene panel testing for breast cancer susceptibility.

Polygenic risk modeling for prediction of epithelial ovarian cancer risk

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) have the potential to improve risk stratification. Joint estimation of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) effects in models could improve predictive performance over standard approaches of PRS construction. Here, we implemented computationally efficient, penalized, logistic regression models (lasso, elastic net, stepwise) to individual level genotype data and a Bayesian framework with continuous shrinkage, "select and shrink for summary statistics" (S4), to summary level data for epithelial non-mucinous ovarian cancer risk prediction. We developed the models in a dataset consisting of 23,564 non-mucinous EOC cases and 40,138 controls participating in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) and validated the best models in three populations of different ancestries: prospective data from 198,101 women of European ancestries; 7,669 women of East Asian ancestries; 1,072 women of African ancestries, and in 18,915 BRCA1 and 12,337 BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers of European ancestries. In the external validation data, the model with the strongest association for non-mucinous EOC risk derived from the OCAC model development data was the S4 model (27,240 SNPs) with odds ratios (OR) of 1.38 (95% CI: 1.28-1.48, AUC: 0.588) per unit standard deviation, in women of European ancestries; 1.14 (95% CI: 1.08-1.19, AUC: 0.538) in women of East Asian ancestries; 1.38 (95% CI: 1.21-1.58, AUC: 0.593) in women of African ancestries; hazard ratios of 1.36 (95% CI: 1.29-1.43, AUC: 0.592) in BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.35-1.64, AUC: 0.624) in BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. Incorporation of the S4 PRS in risk prediction models for ovarian cancer may have clinical utility in ovarian cancer prevention programs.

Effects of chemotherapy on contralateral breast cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers: A nationwide cohort study

Aim

BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with primary breast cancer (PBC) are at high risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). In a nationwide cohort, we investigated the effects of chemotherapeutic agents given for PBC on CBC risk separately in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.

Patients and methods

BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers with an invasive PBC diagnosis from 1990 to 2017 were selected from a Dutch cohort. We estimated cumulative CBC incidence using competing risks analysis. Hazard ratios (HR) for the effect of neo-adjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy and different chemotherapeutic agents on CBC risk were estimated using Cox regression.

Results

We included 1090 BRCA1 and 568 BRCA2 mutation carriers; median follow-up was 8.9 and 8.4 years, respectively. Ten-year cumulative CBC incidence for treatment with and without chemotherapy was 6.7% [95%CI: 5.1–8.6] and 16.7% [95%CI: 10.8–23.7] in BRCA1 and 4.8% [95%CI: 2.7–7.8] and 16.0% [95%CI: 9.3–24.4] in BRCA2 mutation carriers, respectively. Chemotherapy was associated with reduced CBC risk in BRCA1 (multivariable HR: 0.46, 95%CI: 0.29–0.74); a similar trend was observed in BRCA2 mutation carriers (HR: 0.63, 95%CI: 0.29–1.39). In BRCA1, risk reduction was most pronounced in the first 5 years (HR: 0.32, 95%CI: 0.17–0.61). Anthracyclines and the combination of anthracyclines with taxanes were associated with substantial CBC risk reduction in BRCA1 carriers (HR: 0.34, 95%CI: 0.17–0.68 and HR: 0.22, 95%CI: 0.08–0.62, respectively).

Conclusion

Risk-reducing effects of chemotherapy are substantial for at least 5 years and may be used in personalised CBC risk prediction in any case for BRCA1 mutation carriers.

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Contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk is high in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.

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Chemotherapy for primary breast cancer results in decreased CBC risk in BRCA1.

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Anthracyclines with/without taxanes show the largest CBC risk reduction in BRCA1.

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For BRCA2 similar trends are observed as in BRCA1 mutation carriers.

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Chemotherapy must be considered in personalised CBC risk models.

Author Correction: A case-only study to identify genetic modifiers of breast cancer risk for BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23162-4

Evaluation of the association of heterozygous germline variants in NTHL1 with breast cancer predisposition: an international multi-center study of 47,180 subjects

Bi-allelic loss-of-function (LoF) variants in the base excision repair (BER) gene NTHL1 cause a high-risk hereditary multi-tumor syndrome that includes breast cancer, but the contribution of heterozygous variants to hereditary breast cancer is unknown. An analysis of 4985 women with breast cancer, enriched for familial features, and 4786 cancer-free women revealed significant enrichment for NTHL1 LoF variants. Immunohistochemistry confirmed reduced NTHL1 expression in tumors from heterozygous carriers but the NTHL1 bi-allelic loss characteristic mutational signature (SBS 30) was not present. The analysis was extended to 27,421 breast cancer cases and 19,759 controls from 10 international studies revealing 138 cases and 93 controls with a heterozygous LoF variant (OR 1.06, 95% CI: 0.82-1.39) and 316 cases and 179 controls with a missense variant (OR 1.31, 95% CI: 1.09-1.57). Missense variants selected for deleterious features by a number of in silico bioinformatic prediction tools or located within the endonuclease III functional domain showed a stronger association with breast cancer. Somatic sequencing of breast cancers from carriers indicated that the risk associated with NTHL1 appears to operate through haploinsufficiency, consistent with other described low-penetrance breast cancer genes. Data from this very large international multicenter study suggests that heterozygous pathogenic germline coding variants in NTHL1 may be associated with low- to moderate- increased risk of breast cancer.

A case-only study to identify genetic modifiers of breast cancer risk for BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers

Breast cancer (BC) risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers varies by genetic and familial factors. About 50 common variants have been shown to modify BC risk for mutation carriers. All but three, were identified in general population studies. Other mutation carrier-specific susceptibility variants may exist but studies of mutation carriers have so far been underpowered. We conduct a novel case-only genome-wide association study comparing genotype frequencies between 60,212 general population BC cases and 13,007 cases with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. We identify robust novel associations for 2 variants with BC for BRCA1 and 3 for BRCA2 mutation carriers, P < 10-8, at 5 loci, which are not associated with risk in the general population. They include rs60882887 at 11p11.2 where MADD, SP11 and EIF1, genes previously implicated in BC biology, are predicted as potential targets. These findings will contribute towards customising BC polygenic risk scores for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.

Prediction of contralateral breast cancer: external validation of risk calculators in 20 international cohorts

BACKGROUND

Three tools are currently available to predict the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to compare the performance of the Manchester formula, CBCrisk, and PredictCBC in patients with invasive breast cancer (BC).

METHODS

We analyzed data of 132,756 patients (4682 CBC) from 20 international studies with a median follow-up of 8.8 years. Prediction performance included discrimination, quantified as a time-dependent Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary BC, and calibration, quantified as the expected-observed (E/O) ratio at 5 and 10 years and the calibration slope.

RESULTS

The AUC at 10 years was: 0.58 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.57-0.59) for CBCrisk; 0.60 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for the Manchester formula; 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.66) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.56-0.62) for PredictCBC-1A (for settings where BRCA1/2 mutation status is available) and PredictCBC-1B (for the general population), respectively. The E/O at 10 years: 0.82 (95% CI 0.51-1.32) for CBCrisk; 1.53 (95% CI 0.63-3.73) for the Manchester formula; 1.28 (95% CI 0.63-2.58) for PredictCBC-1A and 1.35 (95% CI 0.65-2.77) for PredictCBC-1B. The calibration slope was 1.26 (95% CI 1.01-1.50) for CBCrisk; 0.90 (95% CI 0.79-1.02) for PredictCBC-1A; 0.81 (95% CI 0.63-0.99) for PredictCBC-1B, and 0.39 (95% CI 0.34-0.43) for the Manchester formula.

CONCLUSIONS

Current CBC risk prediction tools provide only moderate discrimination and the Manchester formula was poorly calibrated. Better predictors and re-calibration are needed to improve CBC prediction and to identify low- and high-CBC risk patients for clinical decision-making.

Cancer Risks Associated With Germline PALB2 Pathogenic Variants: An International Study of 524 Families

PURPOSE

To estimate age-specific relative and absolute cancer risks of breast cancer and to estimate risks of ovarian, pancreatic, male breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers associated with germline PALB2 pathogenic variants (PVs) because these risks have not been extensively characterized.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 524 families with PALB2 PVs from 21 countries. Complex segregation analysis was used to estimate relative risks (RRs; relative to country-specific population incidences) and absolute risks of cancers. The models allowed for residual familial aggregation of breast and ovarian cancer and were adjusted for the family-specific ascertainment schemes.

RESULTS

We found associations between PALB2 PVs and risk of female breast cancer (RR, 7.18; 95% CI, 5.82 to 8.85; P = 6.5 × 10-76), ovarian cancer (RR, 2.91; 95% CI, 1.40 to 6.04; P = 4.1 × 10-3), pancreatic cancer (RR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.24 to 4.50; P = 8.7 × 10-3), and male breast cancer (RR, 7.34; 95% CI, 1.28 to 42.18; P = 2.6 × 10-2). There was no evidence for increased risks of prostate or colorectal cancer. The breast cancer RRs declined with age (P for trend = 2.0 × 10-3). After adjusting for family ascertainment, breast cancer risk estimates on the basis of multiple case families were similar to the estimates from families ascertained through population-based studies (P for difference = .41). On the basis of the combined data, the estimated risks to age 80 years were 53% (95% CI, 44% to 63%) for female breast cancer, 5% (95% CI, 2% to 10%) for ovarian cancer, 2%-3% (95% CI females, 1% to 4%; 95% CI males, 2% to 5%) for pancreatic cancer, and 1% (95% CI, 0.2% to 5%) for male breast cancer.

CONCLUSION

These results confirm PALB2 as a major breast cancer susceptibility gene and establish substantial associations between germline PALB2 PVs and ovarian, pancreatic, and male breast cancers. These findings will facilitate incorporation of PALB2 into risk prediction models and optimize the clinical cancer risk management of PALB2 PV carriers.

Abstract P5-07-12: Prediction and clinical utility of a contralateral breast cancer risk model

Background: Breast cancer survivors are at risk for contralateral breast cancer (CBC), with the consequent burden of further treatment and potentially less favorable prognosis. We aimed to develop and validate a CBC risk prediction model, and evaluate its applicability for clinical decision-making.

Methods: We included data of 132,756 invasive non-metastatic breast cancer patients from 20 studies with 4,682 CBC events and a median follow-up of 8.8 years. We developed a multivariable Fine and Gray prediction model (PredictCBC-1A) including patient, primary tumor, and treatment characteristics, and BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, accounting for the competing risks of death and distant metastasis. We also developed a model without BRCA1/2 mutation status (PredictCBC-1B). Prediction performance was evaluated using calibration and discrimination, calculated by a time-dependent Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary breast cancer, and an internal-external cross-validation procedure. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of the model to quantify clinical utility.

Results: In the multivariable model, BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, family history and systemic adjuvant treatment showed the strongest associations with CBC risk. The AUC of PredictCBC-1A was 0.63 (95% prediction interval (PI) at 5 years: 0.52–0.74; at 10 years: 0.53–0.72). Calibration in-the-large was -0.13 (95%PI: -1.62–1.37) and the calibration slope was 0.90 (95%PI: 0.73–1.08). The AUC of Predict-1B at 10 years was 0.59 (95% PI: 0.52–0.66); calibration was slightly lower. Decision curve analysis for preventive contralateral mastectomy showed potential clinical utility of PredictCBC-1A between thresholds of 4-10% 10-year CBC risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers.

Conclusions: We developed a reasonably calibrated model to predict the risk of CBC in women of European-descent, however, prediction accuracy was moderate. Our model shows potential for improved risk counseling, but decision regarding contralateral preventive mastectomy, especially in the general breast cancer population, remains challenging.

Citation Format: Daniele Giardiello, Ewout W Steyerberg, Michael Hauptmann, Muriel A Adank, Agnes Jager, Hester OA Oldenburg, Maartje J Hooning, Marjanka K Schmidt, Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Prediction and clinical utility of a contralateral breast cancer risk model [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2019 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2019 Dec 10-14; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-07-12.

Prediction and clinical utility of a contralateral breast cancer risk model

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer survivors are at risk for contralateral breast cancer (CBC), with the consequent burden of further treatment and potentially less favorable prognosis. We aimed to develop and validate a CBC risk prediction model and evaluate its applicability for clinical decision-making.

METHODS

We included data of 132,756 invasive non-metastatic breast cancer patients from 20 studies with 4682 CBC events and a median follow-up of 8.8 years. We developed a multivariable Fine and Gray prediction model (PredictCBC-1A) including patient, primary tumor, and treatment characteristics and BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, accounting for the competing risks of death and distant metastasis. We also developed a model without BRCA1/2 mutation status (PredictCBC-1B) since this information was available for only 6% of patients and is routinely unavailable in the general breast cancer population. Prediction performance was evaluated using calibration and discrimination, calculated by a time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary breast cancer, and an internal-external cross-validation procedure. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of the model to quantify clinical utility.

RESULTS

In the multivariable model, BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, family history, and systemic adjuvant treatment showed the strongest associations with CBC risk. The AUC of PredictCBC-1A was 0.63 (95% prediction interval (PI) at 5 years, 0.52-0.74; at 10 years, 0.53-0.72). Calibration-in-the-large was -0.13 (95% PI: -1.62-1.37), and the calibration slope was 0.90 (95% PI: 0.73-1.08). The AUC of Predict-1B at 10 years was 0.59 (95% PI: 0.52-0.66); calibration was slightly lower. Decision curve analysis for preventive contralateral mastectomy showed potential clinical utility of PredictCBC-1A between thresholds of 4-10% 10-year CBC risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a reasonably calibrated model to predict the risk of CBC in women of European-descent; however, prediction accuracy was moderate. Our model shows potential for improved risk counseling, but decision-making regarding contralateral preventive mastectomy, especially in the general breast cancer population where limited information of the mutation status in BRCA1/2 is available, remains challenging.

The FANCM:p.Arg658* truncating variant is associated with risk of triple-negative breast cancer

Breast cancer is a common disease partially caused by genetic risk factors. Germline pathogenic variants in DNA repair genes BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, and CHEK2 are associated with breast cancer risk. FANCM, which encodes for a DNA translocase, has been proposed as a breast cancer predisposition gene, with greater effects for the ER-negative and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) subtypes. We tested the three recurrent protein-truncating variants FANCM:p.Arg658*, p.Gln1701*, and p.Arg1931* for association with breast cancer risk in 67,112 cases, 53,766 controls, and 26,662 carriers of pathogenic variants of BRCA1 or BRCA2. These three variants were also studied functionally by measuring survival and chromosome fragility in FANCM -/- patient-derived immortalized fibroblasts treated with diepoxybutane or olaparib. We observed that FANCM:p.Arg658* was associated with increased risk of ER-negative disease and TNBC (OR = 2.44, P = 0.034 and OR = 3.79; P = 0.009, respectively). In a country-restricted analysis, we confirmed the associations detected for FANCM:p.Arg658* and found that also FANCM:p.Arg1931* was associated with ER-negative breast cancer risk (OR = 1.96; P = 0.006). The functional results indicated that all three variants were deleterious affecting cell survival and chromosome stability with FANCM:p.Arg658* causing more severe phenotypes. In conclusion, we confirmed that the two rare FANCM deleterious variants p.Arg658* and p.Arg1931* are risk factors for ER-negative and TNBC subtypes. Overall our data suggest that the effect of truncating variants on breast cancer risk may depend on their position in the gene. Cell sensitivity to olaparib exposure, identifies a possible therapeutic option to treat FANCM-associated tumors.

Mendelian randomisation study of height and body mass index as modifiers of ovarian cancer risk in 22,588 BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers

BACKGROUND

Height and body mass index (BMI) are associated with higher ovarian cancer risk in the general population, but whether such associations exist among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers is unknown.

METHODS

We applied a Mendelian randomisation approach to examine height/BMI with ovarian cancer risk using the Consortium of Investigators for the Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA) data set, comprising 14,676 BRCA1 and 7912 BRCA2 mutation carriers, with 2923 ovarian cancer cases. We created a height genetic score (height-GS) using 586 height-associated variants and a BMI genetic score (BMI-GS) using 93 BMI-associated variants. Associations were assessed using weighted Cox models.

RESULTS

Observed height was not associated with ovarian cancer risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.07 per 10-cm increase in height, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.94-1.23). Height-GS showed similar results (HR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.85-1.23). Higher BMI was significantly associated with increased risk in premenopausal women with HR = 1.25 (95% CI: 1.06-1.48) and HR = 1.59 (95% CI: 1.08-2.33) per 5-kg/m2 increase in observed and genetically determined BMI, respectively. No association was found for postmenopausal women. Interaction between menopausal status and BMI was significant (Pinteraction < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Our observation of a positive association between BMI and ovarian cancer risk in premenopausal BRCA1/2 mutation carriers is consistent with findings in the general population.

Breast cancer risk in transgender people receiving hormone treatment: nationwide cohort study in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the incidence and characteristics of breast cancer in transgender people in the Netherlands compared with the general Dutch population.

DESIGN

Retrospective, nationwide cohort study.

SETTING

Specialised tertiary gender clinic in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

2260 adult trans women (male sex assigned at birth, female gender identity) and 1229 adult trans men (female sex assigned at birth, male gender identity) who received gender affirming hormone treatment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence and characteristics (eg, histology, hormone receptor status) of breast cancer in transgender people.

RESULTS

The total person time in this cohort was 33 991 years for trans women and 14 883 years for trans men. In the 2260 trans women in the cohort, 15 cases of invasive breast cancer were identified (median duration of hormone treatment 18 years, range 7-37 years). This was 46-fold higher than in cisgender men (standardised incidence ratio 46.7, 95% confidence interval 27.2 to 75.4) but lower than in cisgender women (0.3, 0.2 to 0.4). Most tumours were of ductal origin and oestrogen and progesterone receptor positive, and 8.3% were human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2) positive. In 1229 trans men, four cases of invasive breast cancer were identified (median duration of hormone treatment 15 years, range 2-17 years). This was lower than expected compared with cisgender women (standardised incidence ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1 to 0.5).

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed an increased risk of breast cancer in trans women compared with cisgender men, and a lower risk in trans men compared with cisgender women. In trans women, the risk of breast cancer increased during a relatively short duration of hormone treatment and the characteristics of the breast cancer resembled a more female pattern. These results suggest that breast cancer screening guidelines for cisgender people are sufficient for transgender people using hormone treatment.

Height and Body Mass Index as Modifiers of Breast Cancer Risk in BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers: A Mendelian Randomization Study

BACKGROUND

BRCA1/2 mutations confer high lifetime risk of breast cancer, although other factors may modify this risk. Whether height or body mass index (BMI) modifies breast cancer risk in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers remains unclear.

METHODS

We used Mendelian randomization approaches to evaluate the association of height and BMI on breast cancer risk, using data from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 with 14 676 BRCA1 and 7912 BRCA2 mutation carriers, including 11 451 cases of breast cancer. We created a height genetic score using 586 height-associated variants and a BMI genetic score using 93 BMI-associated variants. We examined both observed and genetically determined height and BMI with breast cancer risk using weighted Cox models. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

Observed height was positively associated with breast cancer risk (HR = 1.09 per 10 cm increase, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0 to 1.17; P = 1.17). Height genetic score was positively associated with breast cancer, although this was not statistically significant (per 10 cm increase in genetically predicted height, HR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.93 to 1.17; P = .47). Observed BMI was inversely associated with breast cancer risk (per 5 kg/m2 increase, HR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.90 to 0.98; P = .007). BMI genetic score was also inversely associated with breast cancer risk (per 5 kg/m2 increase in genetically predicted BMI, HR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.76 to 0.98; P = .02). BMI was primarily associated with premenopausal breast cancer.

CONCLUSION

Height is associated with overall breast cancer and BMI is associated with premenopausal breast cancer in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Incorporating height and BMI, particularly genetic score, into risk assessment may improve cancer management.

Polygenic Risk Scores for Prediction of Breast Cancer and Breast Cancer Subtypes

Stratification of women according to their risk of breast cancer based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could improve screening and prevention strategies. Our aim was to develop PRSs, optimized for prediction of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific disease, from the largest available genome-wide association dataset and to empirically validate the PRSs in prospective studies. The development dataset comprised 94,075 case subjects and 75,017 control subjects of European ancestry from 69 studies, divided into training and validation sets. Samples were genotyped using genome-wide arrays, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected by stepwise regression or lasso penalized regression. The best performing PRSs were validated in an independent test set comprising 11,428 case subjects and 18,323 control subjects from 10 prospective studies and 190,040 women from UK Biobank (3,215 incident breast cancers). For the best PRSs (313 SNPs), the odds ratio for overall disease per 1 standard deviation in ten prospective studies was 1.61 (95%CI: 1.57-1.65) with area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) = 0.630 (95%CI: 0.628-0.651). The lifetime risk of overall breast cancer in the top centile of the PRSs was 32.6%. Compared with women in the middle quintile, those in the highest 1% of risk had 4.37- and 2.78-fold risks, and those in the lowest 1% of risk had 0.16- and 0.27-fold risks, of developing ER-positive and ER-negative disease, respectively. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that this PRS was well calibrated and predicts disease risk accurately in the tails of the distribution. This PRS is a powerful and reliable predictor of breast cancer risk that may improve breast cancer prevention programs.

Prostate-specific antigen velocity in a prospective prostate cancer screening study of men with genetic predisposition

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/bjc.2017.429.

Prostate-specific antigen velocity in a prospective prostate cancer screening study of men with genetic predisposition

BACKGROUND

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and PSA-velocity (PSAV) have been used to identify men at risk of prostate cancer (PrCa). The IMPACT study is evaluating PSA screening in men with a known genetic predisposition to PrCa due to BRCA1/2 mutations. This analysis evaluates the utility of PSA and PSAV for identifying PrCa and high-grade disease in this cohort.

METHODS

PSAV was calculated using logistic regression to determine if PSA or PSAV predicted the result of prostate biopsy (PB) in men with elevated PSA values. Cox regression was used to determine whether PSA or PSAV predicted PSA elevation in men with low PSAs. Interaction terms were included in the models to determine whether BRCA status influenced the predictiveness of PSA or PSAV.

RESULTS

1634 participants had ⩾3 PSA readings of whom 174 underwent PB and 45 PrCas diagnosed. In men with PSA >3.0 ng ml-l, PSAV was not significantly associated with presence of cancer or high-grade disease. PSAV did not add to PSA for predicting time to an elevated PSA. When comparing BRCA1/2 carriers to non-carriers, we found a significant interaction between BRCA status and last PSA before biopsy (P=0.031) and BRCA2 status and PSAV (P=0.024). However, PSAV was not predictive of biopsy outcome in BRCA2 carriers.

CONCLUSIONS

PSA is more strongly predictive of PrCa in BRCA carriers than non-carriers. We did not find evidence that PSAV aids decision-making for BRCA carriers over absolute PSA value alone.

CDC73-Related Disorders: Clinical Manifestations and Case Detection in Primary Hyperparathyroidism

CONTEXT

Heterozygous pathogenic germline variants in CDC73 predispose to the development of primary hyperparathyroidism (pHPT) and, less frequently, ossifying fibroma of the jaw and renal and uterine tumors. Clinical information on CDC73-related disorders has so far been limited to small case series.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical manifestations and penetrance in CDC73-related disorders and to improve case detection in pHPT.

DESIGN

Nationwide retrospective Dutch cohort study.

SETTING

Tertiary referral center.

PATIENTS

We studied 89 patients with pHPT referred for germline CDC73 analysis and 43 subsequently tested relatives who proved to be mutation carriers.

INVESTIGATION

Germline CDC73 mutation analysis.

MEAN OUTCOME

CDC73 mutation detection yield, referral rate, and CDC73-related disease penetrance.

RESULTS

Pathogenic germline CDC73 variants were identified in 11 of the 89 referred pHPT patients (12.4%), with (suspected) hyperparathyroidism-jaw tumor (HPT-JT) syndrome (n = 3), familial isolated pHPT (n = 5), apparently sporadic parathyroid carcinoma (n = 2), and apparently sporadic parathyroid adenoma (n = 1). The estimated penetrance of CDC73-related disorders was 65% at age 50 years (95% confidence interval, 48% to 82%) in 43 nonindex mutation carriers.

CONCLUSIONS

Germline CDC73 analysis is recommended in individuals with (suspected) HPT-JT syndrome, familial isolated pHPT, atypical or malignant parathyroid histology, and young individuals with pHPT. These criteria would increase germline CDC73 mutation detection, enabling optimal clinical management of pHPT as well as genetic counseling and surveillance for family members at risk for developing CDC73-related disorders.

Association analysis identifies 65 new breast cancer risk loci

Breast cancer risk is influenced by rare coding variants in susceptibility genes, such as BRCA1, and many common, mostly non-coding variants. However, much of the genetic contribution to breast cancer risk remains unknown. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study of breast cancer in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry and 14,068 cases and 13,104 controls of East Asian ancestry. We identified 65 new loci that are associated with overall breast cancer risk at P < 5 × 10-8. The majority of credible risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these loci fall in distal regulatory elements, and by integrating in silico data to predict target genes in breast cells at each locus, we demonstrate a strong overlap between candidate target genes and somatic driver genes in breast tumours. We also find that heritability of breast cancer due to all single-nucleotide polymorphisms in regulatory features was 2-5-fold enriched relative to the genome-wide average, with strong enrichment for particular transcription factor binding sites. These results provide further insight into genetic susceptibility to breast cancer and will improve the use of genetic risk scores for individualized screening and prevention.

Risks of Breast, Ovarian, and Contralateral Breast Cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

Importance

The clinical management of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers requires accurate, prospective cancer risk estimates.

Objectives

To estimate age-specific risks of breast, ovarian, and contralateral breast cancer for mutation carriers and to evaluate risk modification by family cancer history and mutation location.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Prospective cohort study of 6036 BRCA1 and 3820 BRCA2 female carriers (5046 unaffected and 4810 with breast or ovarian cancer or both at baseline) recruited in 1997-2011 through the International BRCA1/2 Carrier Cohort Study, the Breast Cancer Family Registry and the Kathleen Cuningham Foundation Consortium for Research into Familial Breast Cancer, with ascertainment through family clinics (94%) and population-based studies (6%). The majority were from large national studies in the United Kingdom (EMBRACE), the Netherlands (HEBON), and France (GENEPSO). Follow-up ended December 2013; median follow-up was 5 years.

Exposures

BRCA1/2 mutations, family cancer history, and mutation location.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Annual incidences, standardized incidence ratios, and cumulative risks of breast, ovarian, and contralateral breast cancer.

Results

Among 3886 women (median age, 38 years; interquartile range [IQR], 30-46 years) eligible for the breast cancer analysis, 5066 women (median age, 38 years; IQR, 31-47 years) eligible for the ovarian cancer analysis, and 2213 women (median age, 47 years; IQR, 40-55 years) eligible for the contralateral breast cancer analysis, 426 were diagnosed with breast cancer, 109 with ovarian cancer, and 245 with contralateral breast cancer during follow-up. The cumulative breast cancer risk to age 80 years was 72% (95% CI, 65%-79%) for BRCA1 and 69% (95% CI, 61%-77%) for BRCA2 carriers. Breast cancer incidences increased rapidly in early adulthood until ages 30 to 40 years for BRCA1 and until ages 40 to 50 years for BRCA2 carriers, then remained at a similar, constant incidence (20-30 per 1000 person-years) until age 80 years. The cumulative ovarian cancer risk to age 80 years was 44% (95% CI, 36%-53%) for BRCA1 and 17% (95% CI, 11%-25%) for BRCA2 carriers. For contralateral breast cancer, the cumulative risk 20 years after breast cancer diagnosis was 40% (95% CI, 35%-45%) for BRCA1 and 26% (95% CI, 20%-33%) for BRCA2 carriers (hazard ratio [HR] for comparing BRCA2 vs BRCA1, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.47-0.82; P=.001 for difference). Breast cancer risk increased with increasing number of first- and second-degree relatives diagnosed as having breast cancer for both BRCA1 (HR for ≥2 vs 0 affected relatives, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.41-2.82; P<.001 for trend) and BRCA2 carriers (HR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.08-3.37; P=.02 for trend). Breast cancer risk was higher if mutations were located outside vs within the regions bounded by positions c.2282-c.4071 in BRCA1 (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.11-1.93; P=.007) and c.2831-c.6401 in BRCA2 (HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.36-2.74; P<.001).

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings provide estimates of cancer risk based on BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carrier status using prospective data collection and demonstrate the potential importance of family history and mutation location in risk assessment.

Performance of BRCA1/2 mutation prediction models in male breast cancer patients

To establish whether existing mutation prediction models can identify which male breast cancer (MBC) patients should be offered BRCA1 and BRCA2 diagnostic DNA screening, we compared the performance of BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm), BRCAPRO (BRCA probability) and the Myriad prevalence table ("Myriad"). These models were evaluated using the family data of 307 Dutch MBC probands tested for BRCA1/2, 58 (19%) of whom were carriers. We compared the numbers of observed vs predicted carriers and assessed the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve (AUC) for each model. BOADICEA predicted the total number of BRCA1/2 mutation carriers quite accurately (observed/predicted ratio: 0.94). When a cut-off of 10% and 20% prior probability was used, BRCAPRO showed a non-significant better performance (observed/predicted ratio BOADICEA: 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [0.60-1.09] and 0.79, 95% CI: [0.57-1.09], vs.

BRCAPRO

1.02, 95% CI: [0.75-1.38] and 0.94, 95% CI: [0.68-1.31], respectively). Myriad underestimated the number of carriers in up to 69% of the cases. BRCAPRO showed a non-significant, higher AUC than BOADICEA (0.798 vs 0.776). Myriad showed a significantly lower AUC (0.671). BRCAPRO and BOADICEA can efficiently identify MBC patients as BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Besides their general applicability, these tools will be of particular value in countries with limited healthcare resources.

The BRCA1 c. 5096G>A p.Arg1699Gln (R1699Q) intermediate risk variant: breast and ovarian cancer risk estimation and recommendations for clinical management from the ENIGMA consortium

BACKGROUND

We previously showed that the BRCA1 variant c.5096G>A p.Arg1699Gln (R1699Q) was associated with an intermediate risk of breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC). This study aimed to assess these cancer risks for R1699Q carriers in a larger cohort, including follow-up of previously studied families, to further define cancer risks and to propose adjusted clinical management of female BRCA1*R1699Q carriers.

METHODS

Data were collected from 129 BRCA1*R1699Q families ascertained internationally by ENIGMA (Evidence-based Network for the Interpretation of Germline Mutant Alleles) consortium members. A modified segregation analysis was used to calculate BC and OC risks. Relative risks were calculated under both monogenic model and major gene plus polygenic model assumptions.

RESULTS

In this cohort the cumulative risk of BC and OC by age 70 years was 20% and 6%, respectively. The relative risk for developing cancer was higher when using a model that included the effects of both the R1699Q variant and a residual polygenic component compared with monogenic model (for BC 3.67 vs 2.83, and for OC 6.41 vs 5.83).

CONCLUSION

Our results confirm that BRCA1*R1699Q confers an intermediate risk for BC and OC. Breast surveillance for female carriers based on mammogram annually from age 40 is advised. Bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy should be considered based on family history.

Cross-Cancer Genome-Wide Analysis of Lung, Ovary, Breast, Prostate, and Colorectal Cancer Reveals Novel Pleiotropic Associations

Identifying genetic variants with pleiotropic associations can uncover common pathways influencing multiple cancers. We took a two-stage approach to conduct genome-wide association studies for lung, ovary, breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer from the GAME-ON/GECCO Network (61,851 cases, 61,820 controls) to identify pleiotropic loci. Findings were replicated in independent association studies (55,789 cases, 330,490 controls). We identified a novel pleiotropic association at 1q22 involving breast and lung squamous cell carcinoma, with eQTL analysis showing an association with ADAM15/THBS3 gene expression in lung. We also identified a known breast cancer locus CASP8/ALS2CR12 associated with prostate cancer, a known cancer locus at CDKN2B-AS1 with different variants associated with lung adenocarcinoma and prostate cancer, and confirmed the associations of a breast BRCA2 locus with lung and serous ovarian cancer. This is the largest study to date examining pleiotropy across multiple cancer-associated loci, identifying common mechanisms of cancer development and progression. Cancer Res; 76(17); 5103-14. ©2016 AACR.

Age- and Tumor Subtype-Specific Breast Cancer Risk Estimates for CHEK2*1100delC Carriers

PURPOSE

CHEK2*1100delC is a well-established breast cancer risk variant that is most prevalent in European populations; however, there are limited data on risk of breast cancer by age and tumor subtype, which limits its usefulness in breast cancer risk prediction. We aimed to generate tumor subtype- and age-specific risk estimates by using data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, including 44,777 patients with breast cancer and 42,997 controls from 33 studies genotyped for CHEK2*1100delC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

CHEK2*1100delC genotyping was mostly done by a custom Taqman assay. Breast cancer odds ratios (ORs) for CHEK2*1100delC carriers versus noncarriers were estimated by using logistic regression and adjusted for study (categorical) and age. Main analyses included patients with invasive breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies.

RESULTS

Proportions of heterozygous CHEK2*1100delC carriers in controls, in patients with breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies, and in patients with breast cancer from familial- and clinical genetics center-based studies were 0.5%, 1.3%, and 3.0%, respectively. The estimated OR for invasive breast cancer was 2.26 (95%CI, 1.90 to 2.69; P = 2.3 × 10(-20)). The OR was higher for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease (2.55 [95%CI, 2.10 to 3.10; P = 4.9 × 10(-21)]) than it was for ER-negative disease (1.32 [95%CI, 0.93 to 1.88; P = .12]; P interaction = 9.9 × 10(-4)). The OR significantly declined with attained age for breast cancer overall (P = .001) and for ER-positive tumors (P = .001). Estimated cumulative risks for development of ER-positive and ER-negative tumors by age 80 in CHEK2*1100delC carriers were 20% and 3%, respectively, compared with 9% and 2%, respectively, in the general population of the United Kingdom.

CONCLUSION

These CHEK2*1100delC breast cancer risk estimates provide a basis for incorporating CHEK2*1100delC into breast cancer risk prediction models and into guidelines for intensified screening and follow-up.

Bias Explains Most of the Parent-of-Origin Effect on Breast Cancer Risk in BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers

BACKGROUND

Paternal transmission of a BRCA mutation has been reported to increase the risk of breast cancer in offspring more than when the mutation is maternally inherited. As this effect might be caused by referral bias, the aim of this study was to assess the parent-of-origin effect of the BRCA1/2 mutation on the breast cancer lifetime risk, when adjusted for referral bias.

METHODS

A Dutch national cohort including 1,314 proven BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and covering 54,752 person years. Data were collected by family cancer clinics, via questionnaires and from the national Dutch Cancer Registry. The parent-of-origin effect was assessed using Cox regression analyses, both unadjusted and adjusted for referral bias. Referral bias was operationalized by number of relatives with cancer and by personal cancer history.

RESULTS

The mutation was of paternal origin in 330 (42%, P < 0.001) BRCA1 and 222 (42%, P < 0.001) BRCA2 carriers. Paternal origin increased the risk of prevalent breast cancer for BRCA1 [HR, 1.54; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.19-2.00] and BRCA2 carriers (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 0.95-2.06). Adjusted for referral bias by several family history factors, these HRs ranged from 1.41 to 1.83 in BRCA1 carriers and 1.27 to 1.62 in BRCA2 carriers. Adjusted for referral bias by personal history, these HRs were 0.66 (95% CI, 0.25-1.71) and 1.14 (95% CI, 0.42-3.15), respectively.

CONCLUSION

A parent-of-origin effect is present after correction for referral bias by family history, but correction for the personal cancer history made the effect disappear.

IMPACT

There is no conclusive evidence regarding incorporating a BRCA1/2 parent-of-origin effect in breast cancer risk prediction models. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(8); 1251-8. ©2016 AACR.

Genome-wide association analysis of more than 120,000 individuals identifies 15 new susceptibility loci for breast cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and large-scale replication studies have identified common variants in 79 loci associated with breast cancer, explaining ∼14% of the familial risk of the disease. To identify new susceptibility loci, we performed a meta-analysis of 11 GWAS, comprising 15,748 breast cancer cases and 18,084 controls together with 46,785 cases and 42,892 controls from 41 studies genotyped on a 211,155-marker custom array (iCOGS). Analyses were restricted to women of European ancestry. We generated genotypes for more than 11 million SNPs by imputation using the 1000 Genomes Project reference panel, and we identified 15 new loci associated with breast cancer at P < 5 × 10(-8). Combining association analysis with ChIP-seq chromatin binding data in mammary cell lines and ChIA-PET chromatin interaction data from ENCODE, we identified likely target genes in two regions: SETBP1 at 18q12.3 and RNF115 and PDZK1 at 1q21.1. One association appears to be driven by an amino acid substitution encoded in EXO1.

Identification and characterization of novel associations in the CASP8/ALS2CR12 region on chromosome 2 with breast cancer risk

Previous studies have suggested that polymorphisms in CASP8 on chromosome 2 are associated with breast cancer risk. To clarify the role of CASP8 in breast cancer susceptibility, we carried out dense genotyping of this region in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) spanning a 1 Mb region around CASP8 were genotyped in 46 450 breast cancer cases and 42 600 controls of European origin from 41 studies participating in the BCAC as part of a custom genotyping array experiment (iCOGS). Missing genotypes and SNPs were imputed and, after quality exclusions, 501 typed and 1232 imputed SNPs were included in logistic regression models adjusting for study and ancestry principal components. The SNPs retained in the final model were investigated further in data from nine genome-wide association studies (GWAS) comprising in total 10 052 case and 12 575 control subjects. The most significant association signal observed in European subjects was for the imputed intronic SNP rs1830298 in ALS2CR12 (telomeric to CASP8), with per allele odds ratio and 95% confidence interval [OR (95% confidence interval, CI)] for the minor allele of 1.05 (1.03-1.07), P = 1 × 10(-5). Three additional independent signals from intronic SNPs were identified, in CASP8 (rs36043647), ALS2CR11 (rs59278883) and CFLAR (rs7558475). The association with rs1830298 was replicated in the imputed results from the combined GWAS (P = 3 × 10(-6)), yielding a combined OR (95% CI) of 1.06 (1.04-1.08), P = 1 × 10(-9). Analyses of gene expression associations in peripheral blood and normal breast tissue indicate that CASP8 might be the target gene, suggesting a mechanism involving apoptosis.

[CHEK2-mutation in Dutch breast cancer families: expanding genetic testing for breast cancer]

In the majority of breast cancer families, DNA testing does not show BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations and the genetic cause of breast cancer remains unexplained. Routine testing for the CHEK2*1100delC mutation has recently been introduced in breast cancer families in the Netherlands. The 1100delC mutation in the CHEK2-gene may explain the occurrence of breast cancer in about 5% of non-BRCA1/2 families in the Netherlands. In the general population the CHEK2*1100delC mutation confers a slightly increased breast cancer risk, but in a familial breast cancer setting this risk is between 35-55% for first degree female carriers. Female breast cancer patients with the CHEK2*1100delC mutation are at increased risk of contralateral breast cancer and may have a less favourable prognosis. Female heterozygous CHEK2*1100delC mutation carriers are offered annual mammography and specialist breast surveillance between the ages of 35-60 years. Prospective research in CHEK2-positive families is essential in order to develop more specific treatment and screening strategies.

MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk

Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05) located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

Targeted prostate cancer screening in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers: results from the initial screening round of the IMPACT study

BACKGROUND

Men with germline breast cancer 1, early onset (BRCA1) or breast cancer 2, early onset (BRCA2) gene mutations have a higher risk of developing prostate cancer (PCa) than noncarriers. IMPACT (Identification of Men with a genetic predisposition to ProstAte Cancer: Targeted screening in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and controls) is an international consortium of 62 centres in 20 countries evaluating the use of targeted PCa screening in men with BRCA1/2 mutations.

OBJECTIVE

To report the first year's screening results for all men at enrollment in the study.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We recruited men aged 40-69 yr with germline BRCA1/2 mutations and a control group of men who have tested negative for a pathogenic BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation known to be present in their families. All men underwent prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing at enrollment, and those men with PSA >3 ng/ml were offered prostate biopsy.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

PSA levels, PCa incidence, and tumour characteristics were evaluated. The Fisher exact test was used to compare the number of PCa cases among groups and the differences among disease types.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

We recruited 2481 men (791 BRCA1 carriers, 531 BRCA1 controls; 731 BRCA2 carriers, 428 BRCA2 controls). A total of 199 men (8%) presented with PSA >3.0 ng/ml, 162 biopsies were performed, and 59 PCas were diagnosed (18 BRCA1 carriers, 10 BRCA1 controls; 24 BRCA2 carriers, 7 BRCA2 controls); 66% of the tumours were classified as intermediate- or high-risk disease. The positive predictive value (PPV) for biopsy using a PSA threshold of 3.0 ng/ml in BRCA2 mutation carriers was 48%-double the PPV reported in population screening studies. A significant difference in detecting intermediate- or high-risk disease was observed in BRCA2 carriers. Ninety-five percent of the men were white, thus the results cannot be generalised to all ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The IMPACT screening network will be useful for targeted PCa screening studies in men with germline genetic risk variants as they are discovered. These preliminary results support the use of targeted PSA screening based on BRCA genotype and show that this screening yields a high proportion of aggressive disease.

PATIENT SUMMARY

In this report, we demonstrate that germline genetic markers can be used to identify men at higher risk of prostate cancer. Targeting screening at these men resulted in the identification of tumours that were more likely to require treatment.

A novel splice site mutation in the noncoding region of BRCA2: implications for Fanconi anemia and familial breast cancer diagnostics

Fanconi anemia (FA) is a rare recessive disorder with chromosomal instability, congenital abnormalities, and a high cancer risk. The breast cancer susceptibility gene BRCA2 (FANCD1) is one of the 16 genes involved in this recessive disease. We have identified a novel mutation of the splice donor site of intron 1 in the noncoding region of BRCA2 in a Japanese FA family. This mutation may account for the FA phenotype in a patient originally reported to have biallelic mutations in BRCA2. Subsequent functional studies revealed that one of the mutations, K2729N, was a neutral change. As reported here, a more careful analysis resulted in the identification of a novel splice site mutation. Functional analysis using a mouse embryonic stem cell-based assay revealed that it causes aberrant splicing, reduced transcript levels and hypersensitivity to DNA damaging agents, suggesting that it is likely to be pathogenic. Although similar pathogenic variants in the noncoding region of BRCA1 and 2 were not identified in a cohort of 752 familial breast cancer cases, we still think this finding is relevant for mutation analysis in Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Syndrome families in a diagnostic setting.

Outcome of BRCA1- compared with BRCA2-associated ovarian cancer: a nationwide study in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

Recent studies suggested an improved overall survival (OS) for BRCA2- versus BRCA1-associated epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), whereas the impact of chemotherapy is not yet clear. In a nationwide cohort, we examined the results of primary treatment, progression-free survival (PFS), treatment-free interval (TFI), and OS of BRCA1 versus BRCA2 EOC patients.

METHODS

Two hundred and forty-five BRCA1- and 99 BRCA2-associated EOC patients were identified through all Dutch university hospitals. Analyses were carried out with the Pearson's Chi-square test, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox regression methods.

RESULTS

BRCA1 patients were younger at EOC diagnosis than BRCA2 patients (51 versus 55 years; P < 0.001), without differences regarding histology, tumor grade, and International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage. Complete response rates after primary treatment, including chemotherapy, did not differ between BRCA1 (86%) and BRCA2 patients (90%). BRCA1 versus BRCA2 patients had a shorter PFS (median 2.2 versus 3.9 years, respectively; P = 0.006), TFI (median 1.7 versus 2.8 years; P = 0.009), and OS (median 6.0 versus 9.7 years; P = 0.04). Differences could not be explained by age at diagnosis, FIGO stage or type of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

PFS and OS were substantially longer in BRCA2- than in BRCA1-associated EOC patients. While response rates after primary treatment were similarly high in both groups, TFI, as surrogate for chemosensitivity, was significantly longer in BRCA2 patients.

CHEK2*1100delC homozygosity is associated with a high breast cancer risk in women

BACKGROUND

Mutations in the CHEK2 gene confer a moderately increased breast cancer risk. The risk for female carriers of the CHEK2*1100delC mutation is twofold increased. Breast cancer risk for carrier women is higher in a familial breast cancer setting which is due to coinheritance of additional genetic risk factors. This study investigated the occurrence of homozygosity for the CHEK2*1100delC allele among familial breast cancer cases and the associated breast cancer risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Homozygosity for the CHEK2*1100delC allele was identified in 8/2554 Dutch independent familial non-BRCA1/2 breast cancer cases. The genotype relative risk for breast cancer of homozygous and heterozygous familial breast cancer cases was 101.34 (95% CI 4.47 to 121 000) and 4.04 (95% CI 0.88 to 21.0), respectively. Female homozygotes appeared to have a greater than twofold increased breast cancer risk compared to familial CHEK2*1100delC heterozygotes (p=0.044). These results and the occurrence of multiple primary tumours in 7/10 homozygotes indicate a high cancer risk in homozygous women from non-BRCA1/2 families.

CONCLUSIONS

Intensive breast surveillance is therefore justified in these homozygous women. It is concluded that diagnostic testing for biallelic mutations in CHEK2 is indicated in non-BRCA1/2 breast cancer families, especially in populations with a relatively high prevalence of deleterious mutations in CHEK2.

Fanconi anemia gene mutations are not involved in sporadic Wilms tumor

Bi-allelic germline mutations of the Fanconi anemia (FA) genes, PALB2/FANCN and BRCA2/FANCD1, have been reported in a few Wilms tumor (WT) patients with an atypical FA phenotype. Therefore, we screened a random cohort of 47 Dutch WT cases for germline mutations in these two FA-genes by DNA sequencing and Multiplex Ligation-dependent Probe Amplification (MLPA). Although several cases appeared to carry missense variants, no bi-allelic pathogenic mutations were identified, indicating that bi-allelic mutations in these FA-genes do not contribute significantly to the occurrence of WT.

PALB2 analysis in BRCA2-like families

BRCA2 and PALB2 function together in the Fanconi anemia (FA)-Breast Cancer (BRCA) pathway. Mono-allelic and bi-allelic BRCA2 and PALB2 mutation carriers share many clinical characteristics. Mono-allelic germline mutations of BRCA2 and PALB2 are risk alleles of female breast cancer and have also been reported in familial pancreatic cancer, and bi-allelic mutations cause a severe form of Fanconi anemia. In view of these similarities, we investigated whether the prevalence of PALB2 mutations was increased in breast cancer families with the occurrence of BRCA2 associated tumours other than female breast cancer. PALB2 mutation analysis was performed in 110 non-BRCA1/2 cancer patients: (a) 53 ovarian cancer patients from female breast-and/or ovarian cancer families; (b) 45 breast cancer patients with a first or second degree relative with pancreatic cancer; and (c) 12 male breast cancer patients from female breast cancer families. One truncating PALB2 mutation, c.509_510delGA, resulting in p.Arg170X, was found in a male breast cancer patient. We conclude that germline mutations of PALB2 do not significantly contribute to cancer risk in non-BRCA1/2 cancer families with at least one patient with ovarian cancer, male breast cancer, and/or pancreatic cancer.

Accuracy of BRCA1 and BRCA2 founder mutation analysis in formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue

BACKGROUND

A major limitation in counseling unaffected women from families with inherited breast and ovarian cancer is that a "true-negative" interpretation of wild type BRCA analysis of the proband cannot be inferred in the absence of demonstration of a BRCA mutation segregating in the kindred. Documentation of familial BRCA mutations from paraffin-derived DNA of deceased patients has been limited due to reports of technical complications leading to lack of reproducibility of BRCA testing of archival material.

METHODS

DNA was extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) morphologically normal tissue of 161 blinded, coded samples from women previously genotyped for the three Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA founder mutations from lymphocyte-derived DNA. Multiplex PCR followed by denaturing polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis was performed for the three founder mutations to determine if analysis on FFPE tissue could produce results concordant with those of the lymphocyte-derived DNA.

RESULTS

After disclosure of the sample codes, the results were compared with the original lymphocyte-derived DNA genotypes. Excluding one sample unevaluable due to PCR failure, there was 100% concordance of 160 genotypes (120 mutation samples) derived from DNA from archival FFPE tissue compared to peripheral lymphocytes.

CONCLUSIONS

The method described reliably detected BRCA founder mutations in archival DNA derived from FFPE tissue. These results suggests that this technique may be useful in clinical settings to inform wild type BRCA results of unaffected probands, leading to avoidance of unnecessary intensified surveillance or risk-reducing surgery. With further validation this approach can also be applied to other populations where founder mutations are observed.