Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Is it too expensive to fight cancer? Analysis of incremental costs and benefits of the Croatian National Plan Against Cancer

This cost-effectiveness study analyses the expected impacts of activities proposed by the Croatian National Plan Against Cancer (NPAC) on cancer incidence and survival rates, as related to their respective costs. We evaluated the impact of the NPAC on two main outcomes, namely, reduced incidence and the improved survival of cancer patients, expressed as life years gained (LYGs), which enabled the calculation of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in the form of cost per LYG. In the analysis of costs, we considered both the direct costs of NPAC activities as well as the wider indirect societal costs of cancer, thus permitting the calculation of the ICER both from the narrower national health insurer's perspective (accounting only for the direct costs) and the wider societal perspective (accounting both for the direct and indirect costs). We estimated that on average, for all patients benefiting from the implementation of the NPAC in Croatia, an additional LYG would be yielded at the additional cost of €1.021 (societal perspective). The NPAC can, for some sites, even be considered a dominant intervention due to the negative cost/LYG ratio, meaning that it generates additional LYGs while at the same time, reducing total societal costs. Taking a narrower health insurer's perspective (i.e., accounting only for the direct costs), the NPAC produces an additional LYG at an additional cost of €1.408. Both cost per LYG estimates can be considered cost-effective investment options.

Burden of malignant melanoma in Ukraine in 2002-2013: incidence, mortality and survival

BACKGROUND

The malignant melanoma (MM) incidence rates were increasing and later stabilizing in many regions of the world, while in South-Eastern Europe incidence rates are uniformly increasing and mortality rates are higher.

AIM

To describe burden of MM in Ukraine in terms of incidence, mortality and survival by sex, age and stage for the period 2002-2013 and compare with European countries.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Database of the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine was used to extract MM incidence cases; number of MM deaths was obtained from the official mortality statistics. Age-standardised and age-specific incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, age groups (15-39, 40-59 and 60+); estimated annual percent of change was used to describe trends. Proportions of new cases by stage of disease and calendar period (2002-2007 vs 2008-2013) were compared as well as net survival estimates.

RESULTS

In Ukraine, MM was more common in females (age-standardised 5.3 per 100,000 in 2013; annual percent of change 3.5%) than in males (5.1 per 100,000; 4.1%); around 50% of them diagnosed in the age group 60+. The observed increase in proportion of new cases with early stage (I-II) was due to stage II cases. The slight increase in mortality rates in males or stability in females were not accompanied with increase of survival. Net MM survival was consistently lower comparing to European countries.

CONCLUSION

More resources should be targeted to increase the capacity of healthcare in diagnostics and treatment of malignant melanoma, but also in promoting healthcare and education in Ukraine.

Trend analyses of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Vojvodina

PURPOSE

Breast cancer is the most common type of malignant tumor in women and one of the most significant public health problems in the world. The purpose of this work was to determine breast cancer epidemiology in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina in a 20-year period (1993 to 2012) by determining breast cancer incidence and mortality in female population and analyzing the trend in the specified period.

METHODS

The research involved the population of women in Vojvodina in the period from 1993 to 2012. Data were obtained from the Register for malignant neoplasms of Vojvodina. Incidence and mortality trends were analyzed by a joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 20,242 cases of breast cancer were registered in the observed period. Standardized incidence ratio in 2012 was 71.2/100,000. The trend of incidence increased with an average annual percentage of growth of 2.10. A total 10,062 deaths due to breast cancer were documented. Standardized incidence ratio in 2012 was 28.6/100,000. An increase of mortality rate by 1.70% per year was recorded in the period from 1992 to 2006 and a decline in the mortality rate by 1.56% was noticed afterwards. The highest percentage of deaths due to breast cancer was recorded in a group aged 60-69 years (26.7%).

Birth seasonality of childhood central nervous system tumors: Analysis of primary data from 16 Southern-Eastern European population-based registries

Season of birth, a surrogate of seasonal variation of environmental exposures, has been associated with increased risk of several cancers. In the context of a Southern-Eastern Europe (SEE) consortium, we explored the potential association of birth seasonality with childhood (0-14 years) central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Primary CNS tumor cases (n = 6,014) were retrieved from 16 population-based SEE registries (1983-2015). Poisson regression and meta-analyses on birth season were performed in nine countries with available live birth data (n = 4,987). Subanalyses by birth month, age, gender and principal histology were also conducted. Children born during winter were at a slightly increased risk of developing a CNS tumor overall [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.06, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.99-1.14], and of embryonal histology specifically (IRR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01-1.27). The winter peak of embryonal tumors was higher among boys (IRR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.05-1.46), especially during the first 4 years of life (IRR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.03-1.71). In contrast, boys <5 years born during summer seemed to be at a lower risk of embryonal tumors (IRR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.54-0.99). A clustering of astrocytomas was also found among girls (0-14 years) born during spring (IRR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.03-1.46). Although the present exploratory results are by no means definitive, they provide some indications for age-, gender- and histology-related seasonal variations of CNS tumors. Expansion of registration and linkage with cytogenetic reports could refine if birth seasonality is causally associated with CNS tumors and shed light into the complex pathophysiology of this lethal disease.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance

Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.

Objective

To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.

Evidence Review

We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

Findings

In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).

Conclusions and Relevance

The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Survival and mortality rates of Wilms tumour in Southern and Eastern European countries: Socioeconomic differentials compared with the United States of America

BACKGROUND

Despite recent therapeutic advancements, Wilms tumour (WT) presents remarkable survival variations. We explored mortality and survival patterns for children (0-14 years) with WT in 12 Southern and Eastern European (SEE) countries in comparison with the United States of America (USA).

METHODS

A total of 3966 WT cases (0-14 years) were registered by a network of SEE childhood cancer registries (N:1723) during available registration periods circa 1990-2016 and surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program (SEER) (N:2243; 1990-2012); mortality data were provided by the respective national statistical services. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the role of age, sex, year of diagnosis, urbanisation and Human Development Index (HDI) on overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Persisting regional variations shape an overall 78% 5-year OS in the participating SEE countries, lagging behind the USA figure (92%, p=0.001) and also reflected by higher SEE mortality rates. Worth mentioning is the gradually escalating OS in SEE (hazard ratio [HR]_{5-year increment}:0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI]:0.60, 0.75) vs. a non-significant 10% improvement in the SEER data, which had a high starting value. OS differentials [two-fold less favourable among children aged 10-14 years, boys and those living in rural SEE areas (HR:1.37; CI:1.10-1.71) or countries with inferior HDI (2-3-fold)] were minimal in the USA.

CONCLUSIONS

Children with WT residing in SEE countries do not equally enjoy the substantial survival gains, especially for those living in rural areas and in lower HDI countries. Noteworthy are steep and sizeable survival gains in SEE along with the newly presented Greek data pointing to achievable survival goals in SEE despite the financial crisis.

Mortality and survival patterns of childhood lymphomas: geographic and age-specific patterns in Southern-Eastern European and SEER/US registration data

Childhood (0-14 years) lymphomas, nowadays, present a highly curable malignancy compared with other types of cancer. We used readily available cancer registration data to assess mortality and survival disparities among children residing in Southern-Eastern European (SEE) countries and those in the United States. Average age-standardized mortality rates and time trends of Hodgkin (HL) and non-Hodgkin (NHL; including Burkitt [BL]) lymphomas in 14 SEE cancer registries (1990-2014) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER, United States; 1990-2012) were calculated. Survival patterns in a total of 8918 cases distinguishing also BL were assessed through Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression models. Variable, rather decreasing, mortality trends were noted among SEE. Rates were overall higher than that in SEER (1.02/106 ), which presented a sizeable (-4.8%, P = .0001) annual change. Additionally, remarkable survival improvements were manifested in SEER (10 years: 96%, 86%, and 90% for HL, NHL, and BL, respectively), whereas diverse, still lower, rates were noted in SEE. Non-HL was associated with a poorer outcome and an amphi-directional age-specific pattern; specifically, prognosis was inferior in children younger than 5 years than in those who are 10 to 14 years old from SEE (hazard ratio 1.58, 95% confidence interval 1.28-1.96) and superior in children who are 5 to 9 years old from SEER/United States (hazard ratio 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.88) than in those who are 10 to 14 years old. In conclusion, higher SEE lymphoma mortality rates than those in SEER, but overall decreasing trends, were found. Despite significant survival gains among developed countries, there are still substantial geographic, disease subtype-specific, and age-specific outcome disparities pointing to persisting gaps in the implementation of new treatment modalities and indicating further research needs.

Breast cancer in South-Eastern European countries since 2000: Rising incidence and decreasing mortality at young and middle ages

BACKGROUND

Marked variations exist in the incidence and mortality trends of major cancers in South-Eastern European (SEE) countries which have now been detailed by age for breast cancer (BC) to seek clues for improvement.

METHODS

We brought together and analysed data from 14 cancer registries (CRs), situated in SEE countries or directly adjacent. Age-standardised rate at world standard (ASRw) and truncated incidence and mortality rates during 2000-2010 by year, and for four age groups, were calculated. Average annual percentage change of rates was estimated using Joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Annual incidence rates increased significantly in countries and age groups, by 2-4% (15-39 years), 2-5% (40-49), 1-4% (50-69) and 1-6% (at 70+). Mortality rates decreased significantly in all age-groups in most countries, but increased up to 5% annually above age 55 in Ukraine, Serbia, Moldova and Cyprus. The BC data quality was evaluated by internationally agreed indicators which appeared suboptimal for Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Romania.

CONCLUSION

The observed variations of incidence trends reflect the influence of risk factors, as well as levels of early detection activities (screening). While mortality rates were mostly decreasing, probably due to improved cancer care and introduction of more effective systemic treatment regimens, the worrying increasing mortality trends in the 55-plus age groups in some countries have to be addressed by health professionals and policymakers. In order to assess and monitor the effects of cancer control activities in the region, the CRs need substantial investments.

Survival trends in childhood chronic myeloid leukaemia in Southern-Eastern Europe and the United States of America

AIM

To assess trends in survival and geographic disparities among children (0-14 years) with chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) before and after the introduction of molecular therapy, namely tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) in Southern-Eastern European (SEE) countries and the USA.

METHODS

We calculated survival among children with CML, acute lymphoblastic (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) in 14 SEE (1990-2014) cancer registries and the U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program (SEER, 1990-2012). We used Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Among 369 CML cases, substantial improvements were noted in 2-year survival during the post-TKI (range: 81-89%) compared to pre-TKI period (49-66%; HR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.23-0.60). Risk of death was three times higher for <5-year-old children versus those aged 10-14 years (HR: 3.03, 95% CI: 1.85-4.94) and 56% higher for those living in SEE versus SEER (HR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.01-2.42). Regardless of geographic area and period of TKI administration, however, age seems to be a significant determinant of CML prognosis (pre-TKI period, HR_0-4y: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.53-4.79; post-TKI period, HR_0-4y: 3.38, 95% CI: 1.29-8.85). Noticeably, post-TKI survival in CML overall approximates that for ALL, whereas therapeutic advancements for AML remain modest.

CONCLUSION

Registry data show that introduction of molecular therapies coincides with revolutionised therapeutic outcomes in childhood CML entailing dramatically improved survival which is now similar to that in ALL. Given that age disparities in survival remain substantial, offering optimal therapy to entire populations is an urgent priority.

Disparities in melanoma incidence and mortality in South-Eastern Europe: Increasing incidence and divergent mortality patterns. Is progress around the corner?

INTRODUCTION

Most countries in South-Eastern Europe (SEE) have lower incidence, but higher mortality rates of malignant melanoma (MM) of the skin compared to North-Western Europe (NWE). We explored trends in MM incidence and mortality in SEE countries by sex and age and compared them with the trends in NWE.

METHODS

We obtained data on incident cases and deaths from MM (ICD-10 code C43) from 11 population-based cancer registries in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Malta, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Turkey. We calculated age-specific rates for 25-49 ('young'), 50-69 ('middle aged') and 70+ years ('older') and estimated the average annual percent of change in incidence and mortality trends 2000-2010 according to age group and sex, using joinpoint regression analysis.

FINDINGS

The incidence rates of MM across the region were uniformly increasing. Significant increases in mortality rates were observed in middle aged men in Serbia and Bulgaria, middle aged women in Slovenia, older men in the Czech Republic, Serbia and Turkey, and older women in Slovenia and Serbia.

INTERPRETATION

While MM incidence rates were still increasing across SEE, mortality trends diverged and were less favourable than in NWE. Empowering cancer registration and improving the quality of incidence and mortality data will be essential for monitoring progress in MM control. In the context of prevention of melanoma, disparities in early detection appear to be widening the gap between SEE and NWE, while the provision of care to patients with advanced disease is likely to prove a challenge for regional healthcare budgets.

Childhood central nervous system tumour mortality and survival in Southern and Eastern Europe (1983-2014): Gaps persist across 14 cancer registries

AIM

Childhood central nervous system (CNS) tumour registration and control programs in Southern and Eastern Europe remain thin, despite the lethal nature of the disease. Mortality/survival data were assembled to estimate the burden of malignant CNS tumours, as well as the potential role of sociodemographic survival determinants across 14 cancer registries of this region.

METHODS

Average age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated, whereas time trends were quantified through Poisson and Joinpoint regressions. Kaplan-Meier curves were derived for the maximum and the more recent (10 and 5 year) registration periods. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to assess demographic and disease-related determinants.

RESULTS

Variations in mortality (8-16 per million) and survival (5-year: 35-69%) were substantial among the participating registries; in most registries mortality trend was stable, whereas Bulgaria, having the highest starting rate, experienced decreasing annual mortality (-2.4%, p=0.001). A steep decrease in survival rates was evident before the second year of follow-up. After controlling for diagnostic subgroup, age, gender and diagnostic year, Greece seemed to present higher survival compared with the other contributing registries, although the follow-up period was short. Irrespective of country, however, rural residence was found to impose substantial adverse repercussions on survival (hazard ratio (HR): 1.2, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-1.4).

CONCLUSION

Cross-country mortality and survival variations possibly reflect suboptimal levels of health care delivery and cancer control in some regions of Southern and Eastern Europe, notwithstanding questionable death certification patterns or follow-up procedures. Continuous childhood cancer registration and linkage with clinical data are prerequisite for the reduction of survival inequalities across Europe.

Survival in patients with primary liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancer and pancreatic cancer in Europe 1999-2007: Results of EUROCARE-5

BACKGROUND

The EUROCARE study collects and analyses survival data from population-based cancer registries (CRs) in Europe in order to provide data on between-country differences in survival and time trends in survival.

METHODS

This study analyses data on liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancers ("biliary tract cancers"), and pancreatic cancer diagnosed in 2000-2007 from 88 CRs in 29 countries. Relative survival (RS) was estimated overall, by region, sex, age and period of diagnosis using the complete approach. Time trends in 5-year RS over 1999-2007 were also analysed using the period approach.

RESULTS

The prognosis of the studied cancers was poor. Age-standardised 5-year RS was 12% for liver cancer, 17% for biliary tract cancers and 7% for pancreatic cancer. There were some between-country differences in survival. In general, RS was low in Eastern Europe and high in Central and Southern Europe. For all sites, 5-year RS was similar in men and women and decreased with advancing age. No substantial changes in survival were reported for pancreatic cancer over the period 1999-2007. On average, there was a crude increase in 5-year RS of 3 percentage points between the periods 1999-2001 and 2005-2007 for liver cancer and biliary tract cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

The major changes in imaging techniques over the study period for the diagnosis of the three studied cancers did not result in an improvement in the prognosis of these cancers. In the near future, new innovative treatments might be the best way to improve the prognosis in these cancers.

Childhood central nervous system tumours: Incidence and time trends in 13 Southern and Eastern European cancer registries

AIM

Following completion of the first 5-year nationwide childhood (0-14 years) registration in Greece, central nervous system (CNS) tumour incidence rates are compared with those of 12 registries operating in 10 Southern-Eastern European countries.

METHODS

All CNS tumours, as defined by the International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC-3) and registered in any period between 1983 and 2014 were collected from the collaborating cancer registries. Data were evaluated using standard International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) criteria. Crude and age-adjusted incidence rates (AIR) by age/gender/diagnostic subgroup were calculated, whereas time trends were assessed through Poisson and Joinpoint regression models.

RESULTS

6062 CNS tumours were retrieved with non-malignant CNS tumours recorded in eight registries; therefore, the analyses were performed on 5191 malignant tumours. Proportion of death certificate only cases was low and morphologic verification overall high; yet five registries presented >10% unspecified neoplasms. The male/female ratio was 1.3 and incidence decreased gradually with age, apart from Turkey and Ukraine. Overall AIR for malignant tumours was 23/10(6) children, with the highest rates noted in Croatia and Serbia. A statistically significant AIR increase was noted in Bulgaria, whereas significant decreases were noted in Belarus, Croatia, Cyprus and Serbia. Although astrocytomas were overall the most common subgroup (30%) followed by embryonal tumours (26%), the latter was the predominant subgroup in six registries.

CONCLUSION

Childhood cancer registration is expanding in Southern-Eastern Europe. The heterogeneity in registration practices and incidence patterns of CNS tumours necessitates further investigation aiming to provide clues in aetiology and direct investments into surveillance and early tumour detection.

Incidence and mortality trends of gastric and colorectal cancers in Croatia, 1988-2008

AIM

To estimate the incidence and mortality trends of gastric and colorectal cancers in Croatia between 1988 and 2008.

METHODS

Incidence data for the period 1988-2008 were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. The number of deaths from gastric and colorectal cancers were obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to describe changes in trends by sex.

RESULTS

Gastric cancer incidence rates declined steadily during the study period, with estimated annual percent change (EAPC) of -3.2% for men and -2.8% for women. Mortality rates in men decreased, with EAPC of -5.0% from 1988-1995 and -2.5% from 1995-2008. Mortality rates in women decreased, with EAPC of -3.2% throughout the study period. For colorectal cancer in men, joinpoint analysis revealed increasing trends of both incidence (EAPC 2.9%) and mortality (EAPC 2.1%). In women, the increase in incidence was not significant, but mortality rates in the last 15 years showed a significant increase (EAPC 1.1%).

CONCLUSION

The incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer in Croatia are similar to other European countries, while the still increasing colorectal cancer mortality calls for more efficient prevention and treatment.

Five-year cumulative incidence of unhealthy diet in adult Croatian population: the CroHort study

This study investigated 5-year cumulative incidence of unhealthy dietary habits across various gender and age groups within the CroHort study, a repeated cross-sectional survey of Croatian adults. The results monitoring the frequency of certain foodstuffs consumption indicate that 10.6% of examinees (10.9% of men, and 9.1% of women) reported worsening of their dietary habits in 2008 as compared to 2003. The cumulative incidence of unhealthy diet was higher in men than in women, and was highest in younger age-groups (18-34 years), both in men and women. The public health programmes should be strengthened in a way which would put a special emphasis on education of younger adults, especially males, on nutrition health impact and healthy diet principles.

Metabolic syndrome--community nursing evaluation and intervention: the CroHort study

This prospective study of 1277 participants investigated patient risk self-assessment, motivation for changes in main determinants of the metabolic syndrome and the impact of community nursing intervention on cardiovascular risk reduction. Observed values of metabolic syndrome determinants indicated an elevated cardiovascular risk. Participants showed greatest motivation for positive changes regarding blood pressure, (3.70 +/- 1.26) then hyperglycemia (3.55 +/- 1.28), hyperlipidemia (3.46 +/- 1.30), overweight and obesity (3.43 +/- 1.28), and physical activity habits (3.29 +/- 1.31). Changes in physical activity and nutritional habits were not related to self-reported motivation regardless of the age and sex (p > 0.05). The most pronounced median improvements were observed in cholesterol (men 4.43%, women 4.89%) and triglycerides (men 3.41%, women 1.49%), with only slight changes in BMI (men 1.08%, women 1.18%) and no change in waist-to-hip ratio and glucose. This study revealed that, although aware and motivated, patients often do not succeed in changing habits. Concomitant changes of the environment and multisectoral prevention approach is necessary.

Cumulative incidence of self-reported diabetes in Croatian adult population in relation to socioeconomic status and lifestyle habits

The aim of this study was to determine the 5-year cumulative incidence of self-reported diabetes mellitus in relation to various socioeconomic and lifestyle factors in Croatian adult population. The analysis included 2909 participants of the Croatian Health Cohort Study (CroHort) aged 20-79 years (median 55, interquartile range 43-67; 69% women) with no history of diabetes. There were 163 new cases of diabetes (5-year cumulative incidence 5.6%), without significant differences according to sex. Significant predictors of diabetes were age, body mass index, waist and hip circumference in bivariate logistic regression, and being married or living in partnership (OR = 1.57, 95% CI 1.08-2.28; p = 0.018), body mass index (OR =1.11, 95% CI 1.07-1.14; p < 0.001) and age (OR = 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03; p = 0.004) in multivariate model. Our results indicate that approximately 1% of the Croatian adult population develops diabetes each year. Association of living in partnership with higher diabetes incidence requires further investigation.

Gender differences in the control of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with type 2 diabetes -a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

Trends in diabetes and cardiovascular mortality rates are considerably different between women and men; this can be partially explained by differences in diabetes control. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to assess whether sex differences exist in effective control of cardiovascular risk factors among persons with type 2 diabetes treated at the Vuk Vrhovac University Clinic in 2008.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis including 8,775 patients who attended the clinic in 2008. Levels of HbA1c, systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), LDL-cholesterol (LDL) and triglycerides (TG) were analyzed. Multiple adjusted odds-ratios were calculated for categories of cardiovascular risk factors considered not being in control (HbA1c ≥ 7%, SBP ≥ 130 mmHg, DBP ≥ 80 mmHg, LDL ≥ 2.5 mmol/L, TG ≥ 1.7 mmol/L).

RESULTS

Women had higher levels of HbA1c (7.05 vs. 6.86%; p<0.001), despite the fact that a larger proportion of women were receiving insulin therapy than men (51.3% vs. 44%). Women also had higher mean values of SBP (144.7 vs. 141.9 mmHg; p<0.001) and LDL (2.92 vs. 2.84 mmol/L). There were no differences in DBP (86.1 vs. 86.0 mmHg; p=0.748) and only triglyceride levels were higher in men (2.04 vs. 1.94 mmol/L; p=0.003). In multi-adjusted logistic regression model female sex was associated with a higher odds ratio of having uncontrolled values of HbA1c (OR=1.21; 95%CI 1.11-1.32), SBP (OR=1.21; 95%CI 1.07-1.37) and LDL (OR=1.13; 95%CI 1.04-1.23).

CONCLUSION

Women with diabetes have poorer control of main potentially modifiable cardiovascular risk factors than men. This could contribute to disparities in trends in cardiovascular mortality and it demands clinicians' and public health awareness.

Lifestyle habits of people with self-reported diabetes: changes during a five-year period

The aims of our study were to investigate the prevalence of risk factors in persons with previously known diabetes ("old DM"), persons with diabetes developed during the 2003-2008 period ("new DM") and diabetes-free individuals within the CroHort study. Risk factors were defined as physical inactivity, unhealthy nutritional regimen, smoking and excessive alcohol consumption, while diabetes status was self-reported. The most prevalent risk factor in both "old DM" and "new DM" group was physical inactivity (46.7% and 33.7% in 2003; 46.8% and 46.3% in 2008), then smoking (12.1% and 14.6%; 12.7% and 14.4%), unhealthy diet (8.8% and 13.8; 8.2% and 10.0%) and heavy alcohol consumption (11.1% and 6.0%; 7.8% and 13.8%). Diabetes-free individuals had higher rates of smoking and unhealthy diet, and lower rates of alcohol consumption and physical inactivity than both diabetes groups. These results indicate the need for comprehensive actions oriented towards persons with diabetes concerning physical activity.

The changing pattern of cardiovascular risk factors: the CroHort study

Croatia has a long tradition of non-communicable disease prevention, but also obstacles to the implementation of preventive programs related to the general attenuation of public health and primary health care sector. The aim of this study was to determine trends in behavioral and biomedical risk factors and evaluate primary non-communicable disease and cardiovascular prevention. Physical inactivity was a leading risk factor with increasing trend and prevalence of 33.9% and 38.9% in men and women in 2008. In 2008, obesity was present in 26.1% and 34.1%, and hypertension in 65.8% and 59.7% of men and women. During the follow-up only smoking and alcohol consumption in men decreased significantly, while alcohol consumption and obesity in women, and hypertension in both sexes significantly increased. In the present situation, with the existing trends and environment it will not be possible to stop negative trends. Revitalization of public health activities and primary health care is essential.

[CroDiab web and improvement of diabetes care at the primary health care level]

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Diabetes is a complex metabolic disorder regarded as one of the most significant public health issues of the 21S century. Keeping a diabetes registry facilitates monitoring of the epidemiological situation, while a structured approach to the registration of diabetic patients (reporting on an optimum information cluster for the follow-up and improvement of diabetes care) contributes to better regulation of patient risk factors. Active patient reporting at the primary health care level has begun in 2006 with setting up the legislative background. The aim of this study was to establish the effect of the CroDiab registry on metabolic parameters in type 2 diabetic patients treated at primary health care level by comparing diabetes indicators between the regularly annually reported type 2 diabetic patients and those that were only intermittently reported to the registry from 2006 until 2008.

METHODS

Family physicians submit their reports mainly via CroDiab web, a Croatian web-based system for the collection of data on diabetic patients, which enables analysis of the basic clinical and public health indices. The levels of fasting and postprandial blood glucose, HbA1c, triglycerides, total cholesterol, HDL- and LDL-cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and body mass index were analyzed in 2006 and 2008, and compared between the two study groups.

RESULTS

At baseline, differences between the intermittently reported (I) and regularly reported (R) groups were only observed in the systolic (I 142.4+/-16.6, R 136.8+/-16.6 mm Hg; p<0.001) and diastolic (1 83.9+/-8.2, R 82.1+/-10.0 mm Hg; P=0.002) blood pressure, while at the end of the study period differences were also recorded in postprandial blood glucose (I 10.63+3.12, R 10.02+/-3.44 mmol/L; P=0.024), HbA1c (I 7.97+/-1.52, R 7.39+/-1.17%; P<0.001), total cholesterol (I 5.60+/-1.15, R 5.25+/-1.13 mmol/L; p<0.001) and LDL-cholesterol (I 3.28+/-0.93, R 2.98+/-0.92 mmol/L; P<0.001). There were no statistically significant differences in body mass index, fasting glucose, HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Electronic medical records and structured health care are associated with increased benefits and improvement in metabolic indicators at the primary health care level. Regular reporting and monitoring via CroDiab registry lead to a significant improvement in the majority of metabolic indicators, which is less marked with intermittent reporting. The more pronounced effect observed in the group of patients that were regularly covered by the registry could be attributed to a more comprehensive and regular insight and better patient care associated with continuous monitoring. Further efforts are therefore needed to achieve the widest possible implementation of the CroDiab web system to improve diabetes care at the primary health care level.

Diabetes mellitus and hypertension have comparable adverse effects on health-related quality of life

BACKGROUND

We aimed to assess health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among people with diabetes or hypertension, estimate the effect of cardiovascular comorbidities on HRQoL as well as compare HRQoL in these groups with that of healthy individuals.

METHODS

A total of 9,070 respondents aged 18 years and over were assessed for HRQoL. Data were obtained from the Croatian Adult Health Survey. Respondents were divided into five groups according to their medical history: participants with hypertension (RR), hypertension and cardiovascular comorbidities (RR+), diabetes mellitus (DM), diabetes and cardiovascular comorbidities (DM+) and participants free of these conditions (healthy individuals, HI). HRQoL was assessed on 8 dimensions of the SF-36 questionnaire.

RESULTS

Participants with diabetes and those with hypertension reported comparably limited (p > 0.05) HRQoL in all dimensions of SF-36, compared with healthy individuals (p < 0.05). If cardiovascular comorbidities were present, both participants with diabetes and participants with hypertension had lower results on all SF-36 scales (p > 0.05) than participants without such comorbidities (p < 0.05). The results remained after adjustment for sociodemographic variables (age, sex, employment, financial status and education).

CONCLUSION

Diabetes and hypertension seem to comparably impair HRQoL. Cardiovascular comorbidities further reduce HRQoL in participants with both chronic conditions. Future research of interventions aimed at improving these participants' HRQoL is needed.

Lifestyle habits of Croatian diabetic population: observations from the Croatian Adult Health Survey

The aim of this study was to assess the behavioural risk factors in Croatian diabetic population and to compare them with the lifestyle habits of individuals with no known history of diabetes. The study was a part of the Croatian Adult Health Survey (CAHS), a cross-sectional survey that provided comprehensive health assessment of the Croatian adult population. Risk factors were defined as an unhealthy nutritional regimen, excessive alcohol consumption, smoking and lack of physical activity. Physical inactivity was the most prevalent risk factor observed in a significant number of both diabetic and non-diabetic subjects (44.8% and 29.1%). It was also the only behavioural risk factor that was more prevalent in the diabetic individuals as compared to those without diabetes. Alcohol consumption did not vary significantly between the two groups (5.8% vs. 6.3%), while unhealthy dietary pattern and smoking were less frequent in respondents with diabetes (10.0% vs. 16.5% and 14.3% vs. 23.2%, respectively). Among diabetic patients, a significantly larger proportion of men than women reported smoking (19.2% vs. 10.0%), whereas no such sex-related differences were observed in other behavioural risk factors. Although the most prominent risk factor in diabetic patients was physical inactivity, a significant proportion of respondents with diabetes also reported the presence of other risk factors investigated in this survey. Since the majority of diabetic patients do not reach their treatment goals, there is a substantial need for curative and preventive interventions. Given the importance of physical activity in the treatment and prevention of diabetes and the high proportion of inactive diabetic patients, any future preventive programme in Croatia should address that risk as well.