Global burden of pelvic inflammatory disease and ectopic pregnancy from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) is a widespread female public problem worldwide. And it could lead to infertility, preterm labor, chronic pelvic pain, and ectopic pregnancy (EP) among reproductive-aged women. This study aimed to assess the global burden and trends as well as the chaning correlation between PID and EP in reproductive-aged women from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

The data of PID and EP among reproductive-aged women (15 to 49 years old) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. The disease burden was assessed by calculating the case numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR). The changing trends and correlation were evaluated by calculating the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) and Pearson's correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

In 2019, the ASR of PID prevalence was 53.19 per 100,000 population with a decreasing trend from 1990 (EAPC: - 0.50), while the ASR of EP incidence was 342.44 per 100,000 population with a decreasing trend from 1990 (EAPC: - 1.15). Globally, PID and EP burdens changed with a strong positive correlation (Cor = 0.89) globally from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, Western Sub-Saharan Africa, Australasia, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest ASR of PID prevalence, and Oceania, Eastern Europe, and Southern Latin America had the highest ASR of EP incidence. Only Western Europe saw significant increasing PID trends, while Eastern Europe and Western Europe saw increasing EP trends. The highest correlations between PID and EP burden were observed in Burkina Faso, Laos, and Bhutan. General negative correlations between the socio-demographic index and the ASR of PID prevalence and the ASR of EP incidence were observed at the national levels.

CONCLUSION

PID and EP continue to be public health burdens with a strong correlation despite slightly decreasing trends detected in ASRs globally. Effective interventions and strategies should be established according to the local situation by policymakers.

Human Genetics Society of Australasia Position Statement: Use of Polygenic Scores in Clinical Practice and Population Health

Considerable progress continues to be made with regards to the value and use of disease associated polygenic scores (PGS). PGS aim to capture a person's genetic liability to a condition, disease, or a trait, combining information across many risk variants and incorporating their effect sizes. They are already available for clinicians and consumers to order in Australasia. However, debate is ongoing over the readiness of this information for integration into clinical practice and population health. This position statement provides the viewpoint of the Human Genetics Society of Australasia (HGSA) regarding the clinical application of disease-associated PGS in both individual patients and population health. The statement details how PGS are calculated, highlights their breadth of possible application, and examines their current challenges and limitations. We consider fundamental lessons from Mendelian genetics and their continuing relevance to PGS, while also acknowledging the distinct elements of PGS. Use of PGS in practice should be evidence based, and the evidence for the associated benefit, while rapidly emerging, remains limited. Given that clinicians and consumers can already order PGS, their current limitations and key issues warrant consideration. PGS can be developed for most complex conditions and traits and can be used across multiple clinical settings and for population health. The HGSA's view is that further evaluation, including regulatory, implementation and health system evaluation are required before PGS can be routinely implemented in the Australasian healthcare system.

Childhood cancer mortality trends in the Americas and Australasia: An update to 2017

BACKGROUND

Marked reductions in childhood cancer mortality occurred over the last decades in high-income countries and, to a lesser degree, in middle-income countries. This study aimed to monitor mortality trends in the Americas and Australasia, focusing on areas showing unsatisfactory trends.

METHODS

Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 children (aged 0-14 years) from 1990 to 2017 (or the last available calendar year) were computed for all neoplasms and 8 leading childhood cancers in countries from the Americas and Australasia, using data from the World Health Organization database. A joinpoint regression was used to identify changes in slope of mortality trends for all neoplasms, leukemia, and neoplasms of the central nervous system (CNS) for major countries.

RESULTS

Over the last decades, childhood cancer mortality continued to decrease by approximately 2% to 3% per year in Australasian countries (ie, Japan, Korea, and Australia), by approximately 1.5% to 2% in North America and Chile, and 1% in Argentina. Other Latin American countries did not show any substantial decrease. Leukemia mortality declined in most countries, whereas less favorable trends were registered for CNS neoplasms, particularly in Latin America. Around 2016, death rates from all neoplasms were 4 to 6 per 100,000 boys and 3 to 4 per 100,000 girls in Latin America, and 2 to 3 per 100,000 boys and approximately 2 per 100,000 girls in North America and Australasia.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood cancer mortality trends declined steadily in North America and Australasia, whereas they were less favorable in most Latin American countries. Priority must be given to closing the gap by providing high-quality care for all children with cancer worldwide.

LAY SUMMARY

Advances in childhood cancer management have substantially improved the burden of these neoplasms over the past 40 years, particularly in high-income countries. This study aimed to monitor recent trends in America and Australasia using mortality data from the World Health Organization. Trends in childhood cancer mortality continued to decline in high-income countries by approximately 2% to 3% per year in Japan, Korea, and Australia, and 1% to 2% in North America. Only a few Latin American countries showed favorable trends, including Argentina, Chile, and Mexico, whereas other countries with limited resources still lagged behind.

Epidemiology, clinical spectrum, viral kinetics and impact of COVID-19 in the Asia-Pacific region

COVID-19 has hit the world by surprise, causing substantial mortality and morbidity since 2020. This narrative review aims to provide an overview of the epidemiology, induced impact, viral kinetics and clinical spectrum of COVID-19 in the Asia-Pacific Region, focusing on regions previously exposed to outbreaks of coronavirus. COVID-19 progressed differently by regions, with some (such as China and Taiwan) featured by one to two epidemic waves and some (such as Hong Kong and South Korea) featured by multiple waves. There has been no consensus on the estimates of important epidemiological time intervals or proportions, such that using them for making inferences should be done with caution. Viral loads of patients with COVID-19 peak in the first week of illness around days 2 to 4 and hence there is very high transmission potential causing community outbreaks. Various strategies such as government-guided and suppress-and-lift strategies, trigger-based/suppression approaches and alert systems have been employed to guide the adoption and easing of control measures. Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission is a hallmark of COVID-19. Identification and isolation of symptomatic patients alone is not effective in controlling the ongoing outbreaks. However, early, prompt and coordinated enactment predisposed regions to successful disease containment. Mass COVID-19 vaccinations are likely to be the light at the end of the tunnel. There is a need to review what we have learnt in this pandemic and examine how to transfer and improve existing knowledge for ongoing and future epidemics.

Cancer mortality and predictions for 2020 in selected Australasian countries, Russia and Ukraine

OBJECTIVES

Predicted cancer mortality figures are useful for public health planning. We predicted cancer mortality rates in Israel, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, Korea, Australia, Russia and Ukraine for the year 2020 using the most recent available data. We focused on breast cancer.

METHODS

We obtained cancer death certification and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We derived figures for 10 major cancer sites and total cancers over 1970-2017. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for 2020 through joinpoint regression models. We calculated the number of avoided deaths from 1994-2020.

RESULTS

Overall, total cancer mortality is predicted to decline. Russia had the highest all cancers rates in 2020, 151.9/100 000 men and 79.6 women; the Philippines had the lowest rate in men, 78.0/100 000, Korea in women, 47.5. Stomach cancer rates declined over the whole period in all countries considered, colorectal cancer since the late 1990s. Trends for pancreas were inconsistent. Predicted rates for lung and breast cancer were favourable; women from Hong Kong, Korea and Australia had lung cancer death rates higher than breast ones. Predicted rates for uterine, ovarian, prostate and bladder cancers and leukaemias were downward for most countries. Between 1994 and 2020, over 3.3 million cancer deaths were avoided in the considered countries, except for the Philippines where no reduction was observed.

CONCLUSION

Predicted cancer rates were lower than in the European Union and the USA, even though falls started later and were less marked.

Determinants of Cardiovascular Risk in 7000 Youth With Type 1 Diabetes in the Australasian Diabetes Data Network

CONTEXT

Cardiovascular disease occurs prematurely in type 1 diabetes. The additional risk of overweight is not well characterized.

OBJECTIVE

The primary aim was to measure the impact of body mass index (BMI) in youth with type 1 diabetes on cardiovascular risk factors. The secondary aim was to identify other determinants of cardiovascular risk.

DESIGN

Observational longitudinal study of 7061 youth with type 1 diabetes followed for median 7.3 (interquartile range [IQR] 4-11) years over 41 (IQR 29-56) visits until March 2019.

SETTING

15 tertiary care diabetes centers in the Australasian Diabetes Data Network.Participants were aged 2 to 25 years at baseline, with at least 2 measurements of BMI and blood pressure.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Standardized systolic and diastolic blood pressure scores and non-high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were co-primary outcomes. Urinary albumin/creatinine ratio was the secondary outcome.

RESULTS

BMI z-score related independently to standardized blood pressure z- scores and non-HDL cholesterol. An increase in 1 BMI z-score related to an average increase in systolic/diastolic blood pressure of 3.8/1.4 mmHg and an increase in non-HDL cholesterol (coefficient + 0.16 mmol/L, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-0.18; P < 0.001) and in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. Females had higher blood pressure z-scores, higher non-HDL and LDL cholesterol, and higher urinary albumin/creatinine than males. Indigenous youth had markedly higher urinary albumin/creatinine (coefficient + 2.15 mg/mmol, 95% CI, 1.27-3.03; P < 0.001) and higher non-HDL cholesterol than non-Indigenous youth. Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion was associated independently with lower non-HDL cholesterol and lower urinary albumin/creatinine.

CONCLUSIONS

BMI had a modest independent effect on cardiovascular risk. Females and Indigenous Australians in particular had a more adverse risk profile.

Disruption to Surgical Training during Covid-19 in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australasia: A Rapid Review of Impact and Mitigation Efforts

OBJECTIVE

To synthesise the current evidence of pandemic-related impact on surgical training internationally and describe strategies that have been put in place to mitigate disruption.

DESIGN

Rapid scoping review of publically available published web-literature.

SETTING

Five large English speaking countries; United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), Canada, Australia and New Zealand (NZ).

RESULTS

Recruitment and selection to residency programmes in the US, Australia and NZ has been largely unaffected. Canada has implemented video-conferencing in lieu of face-to-face interviews. The UK has relied upon trainee self-assessment for selection. Widespread postponement and cancellation of surgical board examinations was seen across the studied countries. Resident assessment-in-training and certification procedures have been heavily modified. Most didactics have moved online, with some courses and conferences cancelled where this has not been possible. None of the studied countries had a central mandate on resident operating privileges during Covid-19.

CONCLUSIONS

The collective response by international surgical training bodies to the dual challenges of safeguarding residents whilst minimising disruption to training has been agile and resident centred. The pandemic has exposed weaknesses in existing training systems and has highlighted opportunity for future improvement.

Global Burden of 5 Major Types of Gastrointestinal Cancer

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There were an estimated 4.8 million new cases of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers and 3.4 million related deaths, worldwide, in 2018. GI cancers account for 26% of the global cancer incidence and 35% of all cancer-related deaths. We investigated the global burden from the 5 major GI cancers, as well as geographic and temporal trends in cancer-specific incidence and mortality.

METHODS

Data on primary cancers of the esophagus, stomach, colorectum, liver, and pancreas were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2018, as well as from the Cancer Incidence in 5 Continents series, and the World Health Organization mortality database from 1960 onward. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, and level of human development.

RESULTS

We observed geographic and temporal variations in incidence and mortality for all 5 types of GI cancers. Esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers were more common in Asia than in other parts of the world, and the burden from colorectal and pancreatic cancers was highest in Europe and North America. There was a uniform decrease in gastric cancer incidence, but an increasing incidence of colorectal cancer in formerly low-incidence regions during the studied time period. We found slight increases in incidence of liver and pancreatic cancer in some high-income regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the incidence of some GI cancer types has decreased, this group of malignancies continues to pose major challenges to public health. Primary and secondary prevention measures are important for controlling these malignancies-most importantly reducing consumption of tobacco and alcohol, obesity control, immunizing populations against hepatitis B virus infection, and screening for colorectal cancer.

Progress Toward Rubella Elimination - Western Pacific Region, 2000-2019

Rubella is the leading vaccine-preventable cause of birth defects. Rubella typically manifests as a mild febrile rash illness; however, infection during pregnancy, particularly during the first trimester, can result in miscarriage, fetal death, or a constellation of malformations known as congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), commonly including one or more visual, auditory, or cardiac defects (1). In 2012, the Regional Committee of the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Region (WPR)* committed to accelerate rubella control, and in 2017, resolved that all countries or areas (countries) in WPR should aim for rubella elimination^† as soon as possible (2,3). WPR countries are capitalizing on measles elimination activities, using a combined measles and rubella vaccine, case-based surveillance for febrile rash illness, and integrated diagnostic testing for measles and rubella. This report summarizes progress toward rubella elimination and CRS prevention in WPR during 2000-2019. Coverage with a first dose of rubella-containing vaccine (RCV1) increased from 11% in 2000 to 96% in 2019. During 1970-2019, approximately 84 million persons were vaccinated through 62 supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) conducted in 27 countries. Reported rubella incidence increased from 35.5 to 71.3 cases per million population among reporting countries during 2000-2008, decreased to 2.1 in 2017, and then increased to 18.4 in 2019 as a result of outbreaks in China and Japan. Strong sustainable immunization programs, closing of existing immunity gaps, and maintenance of high-quality surveillance to respond rapidly to and contain outbreaks are needed in every WPR country to achieve rubella elimination in the region.

Similarities and Differences Between Sexes and Countries in the Mortality Imprint of the Smoking Epidemic in 34 Low-Mortality Countries, 1950-2014

INTRODUCTION

The smoking epidemic greatly affected mortality levels and trends, especially among men in low-mortality countries. The objective of this article was to examine similarities and differences between sexes and low-mortality countries in the mortality imprint of the smoking epidemic. This will provide important additions to the smoking epidemic model, but also improve our understanding of the differential impact of the smoking epidemic, and provide insights into its future impact.

METHODS

Using lung-cancer mortality data for 30 European and four North American or Australasian countries, smoking-attributable mortality fractions (SAMF) by sex, age (35-99), and year (1950-2014) were indirectly estimated. The timing and level of the peak in SAMF35-99, estimated using weighting and smoothing, were compared.

RESULTS

Among men in all countries except Bulgaria, a clear wave pattern was observed, with SAMF35-99 peaking, on average, at 33.4% in 1986. Eastern European men experienced the highest (40%) and Swedish men the lowest (16%) peak. Among women, SAMF35-99 peaked, on average, at 18.1% in 2007 in the North American/Australasian countries and five Northwestern European countries, and increased, on average, to 7.5% in 2014 in the remaining countries (4% in Southern and Eastern Europe). The average sex difference in the peak is at least 25.6 years in its timing and at most 22.9 percentage points in its level.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the progression of smoking-attributable mortality in low-mortality countries was similar, there are important unexpected sex and country differences in the maximum mortality impact of the smoking epidemic driven by cross-country differences in economic, political, and emancipatory progress.

IMPLICATIONS

The formal, systematic, and comprehensive analysis of similarities and differences between sexes and 34 low-mortality countries in long-term time trends (1950-2014) in smoking-attributable mortality provided important additions to the Global Burden of Disease study and the descriptive smoking epidemic model (Lopez et al.). Despite a general increase followed by a decline, the timing of the maximum mortality impact differs more between sexes than previously anticipated, but less between regions. The maximum mortality impact among men differs considerably between countries. The observed substantial diversity warrants country-specific tobacco control interventions and increased attention to the current or expected higher smoking-attributable mortality shares among women compared to men.

Global, regional and national burden of osteoarthritis 1990-2017: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

OBJECTIVES

To report the level and trends of prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for osteoarthritis (OA) in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017 by age, sex and Socio-demographic index (SDI; a composite of sociodemographic factors).

METHODS

Publicly available modelled data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 were used. The burden of OA was estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017, through a systematic analysis of prevalence and incidence modelled data using the methods reported in the GBD 2017 Study. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population, with uncertainty intervals (UIs).

RESULTS

Globally, the age-standardised point prevalence and annual incidence rate of OA in 2017 were 3754.2 (95% UI 3389.4 to 4187.6) and 181.2 (95% UI 162.6 to 202.4) per 100 000, an increase of 9.3% (95% UI 8% to 10.7%) and 8.2% (95% UI 7.1% to 9.4%) from 1990, respectively. In addition, global age-standardised YLD rate in 2017 was 118.8 (95% UI 59.5 to 236.2), an increase of 9.6% (95% UI 8.3% to 11.1%) from 1990. The global prevalence was higher in women and increased with age, peaking at the >95 age group among women and men in 2017. Generally, a positive association was found between the age-standardised YLD rate and SDI at the regional and national levels. Age-standardised prevalence of OA in 2017 ranged from 2090.3 to 6128.1 cases per 100 000 population. United States (6128.1 (95% UI 5729.3 to 6582.9)), American Samoa (5281 (95% UI 4688 to 5965.9)) and Kuwait (5234.6 (95% UI 4643.2 to 5953.6)) had the three highest levels of age-standardised prevalence. Oman (29.6% (95% UI 24.8% to 34.9%)), Equatorial Guinea (28.6% (95% UI 24.4% to 33.7%)) and the United States 23.2% (95% UI 16.4% to 30.5%)) showed the highest increase in the age-standardised prevalence during 1990-2017.

CONCLUSIONS

OA is a major public health challenge. While there is remarkable international variation in the prevalence, incidence and YLDs due to OA, the burden is increasing in most countries. It is expected to continue with increased life expectancy and ageing of the global population. Improving population and policy maker awareness of risk factors, including overweight and injury, and the importance and benefits of management of OA, together with providing health services for an increasing number of people living with OA, are recommended for management of the future burden of this condition.

Robust dengue virus infection in bat cells and limited innate immune responses coupled with positive serology from bats in IndoMalaya and Australasia

Natural reservoir hosts can sustain infection of pathogens without succumbing to overt disease. Multiple bat species host a plethora of viruses, pathogenic to other mammals, without clinical symptoms. Here, we detail infection of bat primary cells, immune cells, and cell lines with Dengue virus. While antibodies and viral RNA were previously detected in wild bats, their ability to sustain infection is not conclusive. Old-world fruitbat cells can be infected, producing high titres of virus with limited cellular responses. In addition, there is minimal interferon (IFN) response in cells infected with MOIs leading to dengue production. The ability to support in vitro replication/production raises the possibility of bats as a transient host in the life cycle of dengue or similar flaviviruses. New antibody serology evidence from Asia/Pacific highlights the previous exposure and raises awareness that bats may be involved in flavivirus dynamics and infection of other hosts.

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout.

METHODS

The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, -1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, -1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function.

INTERPRETATION

Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Factors influencing active tuberculosis case-finding policy development and implementation: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

To explore antecedents, components and influencing factors on active case-finding (ACF) policy development and implementation.

DESIGN

Scoping review, searching MEDLINE, Web of Science, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and the World Health Organization (WHO) Library from January 1968 to January 2018. We excluded studies focusing on latent tuberculosis (TB) infection, passive case-finding, childhood TB and studies about effectiveness, yield, accuracy and impact without descriptions of how this evidence has/could influence ACF policy or implementation. We included any type of study written in English, and conducted frequency and thematic analyses.

RESULTS

Seventy-three articles fulfilled our eligibility criteria. Most (67%) were published after 2010. The studies were conducted in all WHO regions, but primarily in Africa (22%), Europe (23%) and the Western-Pacific region (12%). Forty-one percent of the studies were classified as quantitative, followed by reviews (22%) and qualitative studies (12%). Most articles focused on ACF for tuberculosis contacts (25%) or migrants (32%). Fourteen percent of the articles described community-based screening of high-risk populations. Fifty-nine percent of studies reported influencing factors for ACF implementation; mostly linked to the health system (eg, resources) and the community/individual (eg, social determinants of health). Only two articles highlighted factors influencing ACF policy development (eg, politics). Six articles described WHO's ACF-related recommendations as important antecedent for ACF. Key components of successful ACF implementation include health system capacity, mechanisms for integration, education and collaboration for ACF.

CONCLUSION

We identified some main themes regarding the antecedents, components and influencing factors for ACF policy development and implementation. While we know much about facilitators and barriers for ACF policy implementation, we know less about how to strengthen those facilitators and how to overcome those barriers. A major knowledge gap remains when it comes to understanding which contextual factors influence ACF policy development. Research is required to understand, inform and improve ACF policy development and implementation.

Changes in colorectal cancer incidence in seven high-income countries: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The overall incidence of colorectal cancer is decreasing in many high-income countries, yet analyses in the USA and other high-income countries such as Australia, Canada, and Norway have suggested increasing incidences among adults younger than 50 years. We aimed to examine longitudinal and generational changes in the incidence of colon and rectal cancer in seven high-income countries.

METHODS

We obtained data for the incidence of colon and rectal cancer from 21 population-based cancer registries in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, New Zealand, Ireland, and the UK for the earliest available year until 2014. We used age-period-cohort modelling to assess trends in incidence by age group, period, and birth cohort. We stratified cases by tumour subsite according to the 10th edition of the International Classification of Diseases. Age-standardised incidences were calculated on the basis of the world standard population.

FINDINGS

An overall decline or stabilisation in the incidence of colon and rectal cancer was noted in all studied countries. In the most recent 10-year period for which data were available, however, significant increases were noted in the incidence of colon cancer in people younger than 50 years in Denmark (by 3·1%), New Zealand (2·9%), Australia (2·9%), and the UK (1·8%). Significant increases in the incidence of rectal cancer were also noted in this age group in Canada (by 3·4%), Australia (2·6%), and the UK (1·4%). Contemporaneously, in people aged 50-74 years, the incidence of colon cancer decreased significantly in Australia (by 1·6%), Canada (1·9%), and New Zealand (3·4%) and of rectal cancer in Australia (2·4%), Canada (1·2%), and the UK (1·2%). Increases in the incidence of colorectal cancer in people younger than 50 years were mainly driven by increases in distal (left) tumours of the colon. In all countries, we noted non-linear cohort effects, which were more pronounced for rectal than for colon cancer.

INTERPRETATION

We noted a substantial increase in the incidence of colorectal cancer in people younger than 50 years in some of the countries in this study. Future studies are needed to establish the root causes of this rising incidence to enable the development of potential preventive and early-detection strategies.

FUNDING

Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, the Cancer Society of New Zealand, NHS England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Wales Cancer Network.

Global Epidemiology of Bat Coronaviruses

Bats are a unique group of mammals of the order Chiroptera. They are highly diversified and are the group of mammals with the second largest number of species. Such highly diversified cell types and receptors facilitate them to be potential hosts of a large variety of viruses. Bats are the only group of mammals capable of sustained flight, which enables them to disseminate the viruses they harbor and enhance the chance of interspecies transmission. This article aims at reviewing the various aspects of the global epidemiology of bat coronaviruses (CoVs). Before the SARS epidemic, bats were not known to be hosts for CoVs. In the last 15 years, bats have been found to be hosts of >30 CoVs with complete genomes sequenced, and many more if those without genome sequences are included. Among the four CoV genera, only alphaCoVs and betaCoVs have been found in bats. As a whole, both alphaCoVs and betaCoVs have been detected from bats in Asia, Europe, Africa, North and South America and Australasia; but alphaCoVs seem to be more widespread than betaCoVs, and their detection rate is also higher. For betaCoVs, only those from subgenera Sarbecovirus, Merbecovirus, Nobecovirus and Hibecovirus have been detected in bats. Most notably, horseshoe bats are the reservoir of SARS-CoV, and several betaCoVs from subgenus Merbecovirus are closely related to MERS-CoV. In addition to the interactions among various bat species themselves, bat⁻animal and bat⁻human interactions, such as the presence of live bats in wildlife wet markets and restaurants in Southern China, are important for interspecies transmission of CoVs and may lead to devastating global outbreaks.

Incarceration history and risk of HIV and hepatitis C virus acquisition among people who inject drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) experience a high prevalence of incarceration and might be at high risk of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection during or after incarceration. We aimed to assess whether incarceration history elevates HIV or HCV acquisition risk among PWID.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO databases for studies in any language published from Jan 1, 2000 until June 13, 2017 assessing HIV or HCV incidence among PWID. We included studies that measured HIV or HCV incidence among community-recruited PWID. We included only studies reporting original results and excluded studies that evaluated incident infections by self-report. We contacted authors of cohort studies that met the inclusion or exclusion criteria, but that did not report on the outcomes of interest, to request data. We extracted and pooled data from the included studies using random-effects meta-analyses to quantify the associations between recent (past 3, 6, or 12 months or since last follow-up) or past incarceration and HIV or HCV acquisition (primary infection or reinfection) risk among PWID. We assessed the risk of bias of included studies using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Between-study heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 statistic and the P-value for heterogeneity.

FINDINGS

We included published results from 20 studies and unpublished results from 21 studies. These studies originated from Australasia, western and eastern Europe, North and Latin America, and east and southeast Asia. Recent incarceration was associated with an 81% (relative risk [RR] 1·81, 95% CI 1·40-2·34) increase in HIV acquisition risk, with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I2=63·5%; p=0·001), and a 62% (RR 1·62, 95% CI 1·28-2·05) increase in HCV acquisition risk, also with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I2=57·3%; p=0·002). Past incarceration was associated with a 25% increase in HIV (RR 1·25, 95% CI 0·94-1·65) and a 21% increase in HCV (1·21, 1·02-1·43) acquisition risk.

INTERPRETATION

Incarceration is associated with substantial short-term increases in HIV and HCV acquisition risk among PWID and could be a significant driver of HCV and HIV transmission among PWID. These findings support the need for developing novel interventions to minimise the risk of HCV and HIV acquisition, including addressing structural risks associated with drug laws and excessive incarceration of PWID.

FUNDING

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, National Institutes of Health.

Multi-level analysis of alcohol-related injury, societal drinking pattern and alcohol control policy: emergency department data from 28 countries

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Societal-level volume and pattern of drinking and alcohol control policy have received little attention in the alcohol and injury literature. The aim of this study was to estimate the association between alcohol-related injury, individual-level drinking variables, country-level detrimental drinking pattern and alcohol policy.

DESIGN

Probability samples of emergency department (ED) patients from the International Collaborative Alcohol and Injury Study (ICAIS), which includes four collaborative ED studies on alcohol and injury, all using a similar methodology, were analyzed with multi-level modeling of individual-level drinking variables and aggregate-level variables (country drinking pattern and alcohol policy) on alcohol-related injury in 33 ED studies.

SETTING

Sixty-two emergency departments in 28 countries covering five regions.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 14 390 injured patients arriving to the ED within 6 hours following injury.

MEASURES

Alcohol-related injuries (self-reported drinking prior to the event and causal attribution of injury to drinking) were analyzed in relation to individual-level volume and pattern of drinking, study-level alcohol volume, country detrimental drinking pattern (DDP) and an alcohol policy measure, the International Alcohol Policy and Injury Index (IAPII). The IAPII includes four regulatory domains: availability, vehicular, advertising and drinking context.

FINDINGS

Controlling for demographic characteristics, individual-level drinking and study-level volume, the IAPII was associated significantly with the proportion of both self-reported drinking [confidence interval (CI) = 0.97-0.99; P < 0.001] and causal attribution (CI = 0.97-0.99; P < 0.01) and DDP had little effect on these associations. All four domains were significantly predictive of self-reported drinking [availability (CI = 0.93-0.98, P < 0.01); vehicular (CI = 0.91-0.97, P < 0.001); advertising CI = 0.82-0.94, P < 0.01); and context (CI = 0.93-0.99, P < 0.01], while only the vehicular domain was significantly predictive of causal attribution (CI = 0.92-0.99; P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The more restrictive the alcohol policy in a country, the lower the rate of alcohol-related injury, with country-level drinking pattern having little effect on this relationship.

Short- and long-term association of lipid-lowering drug treatment and cardiovascular disease by estimated absolute risk in the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study

BACKGROUND

There is currently insufficient evidence to support the use of lipid-lowering drug treatment (LLT) for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the elderly.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the relationship of early initiation of LLT with short- and long-term all-cause and CVD mortality in persons older than 65 years in this post hoc study from the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study (ANBP2).

METHODS

This was an in- and post-trial observational study. About 4257 hypertensive participants aged 65 to 84 years within Australian family practices were randomized to an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or a diuretic treatment group. After excluding participants with a prior history of CVD, the cohort was stratified into "LLT" and "no LLT" subgroups based on LLT status at randomization.

RESULTS

At randomization, the participants had a mean age of 72 years, average blood pressure of 168/91 mm Hg and estimated 5-year CVD risk of 18.7 ± 8.3%. In the overall study population, the association of LLT with long-term (11-years) all-cause and non-CVD mortality was significant (hazard ratio [HR] 0.78 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.66-0.92, P = .003] and HR 0.70 [95% CI 0.54-0.90, P = .006], respectively). Magnitudes of the association of LLT with long-term mortality and the association with short-term mortality were similar; however, no statistically significant association with short-term mortality was observed. In the subgroup analysis by baseline 5-year CVD risk, LLT participants in the highest risk tertile had a substantially lower relative risk for short-term all-cause mortality (HR 0.31, 95% CI 0.13-0.71, P for interaction .02) compared to those with lower estimated CVD risk. All analyses were adjusted for baseline and in-trial characteristics.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed a strong association between LLT and reduced long-term all-cause mortality. Thus, our findings support recommendations of the use of LLT in patients over 65 years, particularly those with high CVD risk who were more likely to obtain additional benefits in the short term. The findings also suggested that mortality benefits of LLT for the elderly may take longer to become evident.

Fracture liaison services for osteoporosis in the Asia-Pacific region: current unmet needs and systematic literature review

The analysis aimed to identify the treatment gaps in current fracture liaison services (FLS) and to provide recommendations for best practice establishment of future FLS across the Asia-Pacific region. The findings emphasize the unmet need for the implementation of new programs and provide recommendations for the refinement of existing ones. The study's objectives were to evaluate fracture liaison service (FLS) programs in the Asia-Pacific region and provide recommendations for establishment of future FLS programs. A systematic literature review (SLR) of Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library (2000-2017 inclusive) was performed using the following keywords: osteoporosis, fractures, liaison, and service. Inclusion criteria included the following: patients ≥ 50 years with osteoporosis-related fractures; randomized controlled trials or observational studies with control groups (prospective or retrospective), pre-post, cross-sectional and economic evaluation studies. Success of direct or indirect interventions was assessed based on patients' understanding of risk, bone mineral density assessment, calcium intake, osteoporosis treatment, re-fracture rates, adherence, and mortality, in addition to cost-effectiveness. Overall, 5663 unique citations were identified and the SLR identified 159 publications, reporting 37 studies in Asia-Pacific. These studies revealed the unmet need for public health education, adequate funding, and staff resourcing, along with greater cooperation between departments and physicians. These actions can help to overcome therapeutic inertia with sufficient follow-up to ensure adherence to recommendations and compliance with treatment. The findings also emphasize the importance of primary care physicians continuing to prescribe treatment and ensure service remains convenient. These findings highlight the limited evidence supporting FLS across the Asia-Pacific region, emphasizing the unmet need for new programs and/or refinement of existing ones to improve outcomes. With the continued increase in burden of fractures in Asia-Pacific, establishment of new FLS and assessment of existing services are warranted to determine the impact of FLS for healthcare professionals, patients, family/caregivers, and society.

Clustering of risk factors and the risk of incident cardiovascular disease in Asian and Caucasian populations: results from the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationship between risk factor clusters and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in Asian and Caucasian populations and to estimate the burden of CVD attributable to each cluster.

SETTING

Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration.

PARTICIPANTS

Individual participant data from 34 population-based cohorts, involving 314 024 participants without a history of CVD at baseline.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Clusters were 11 possible combinations of four individual risk factors (current smoking, overweight, blood pressure (BP) and total cholesterol). Cox regression models were used to obtain adjusted HRs and 95% CIs for CVD associated with individual risk factors and risk factor clusters. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 7 years, 6203 CVD events were recorded. The ranking of HRs and PAFs was similar for Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) and Asia; clusters including BP consistently showed the highest HRs and PAFs. The BP-smoking cluster had the highest HR for people with two risk factors: 4.13 (3.56 to 4.80) for Asia and 3.07 (2.23 to 4.23) for ANZ. Corresponding PAFs were 24% and 11%, respectively. For individuals with three risk factors, the BP-smoking-cholesterol cluster had the highest HR (4.67 (3.92 to 5.57) for Asia and 3.49 (2.69 to 4.53) for ANZ). Corresponding PAFs were 13% and 10%.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factor clusters act similarly on CVD risk in Asian and Caucasian populations. Clusters including elevated BP were associated with the highest excess risk of CVD.

Worldwide incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in the 21st century: a systematic review of population-based studies

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory bowel disease is a global disease in the 21st century. We aimed to assess the changing incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease around the world.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and Embase up to and including Dec 31, 2016, to identify observational, population-based studies reporting the incidence or prevalence of Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis from 1990 or later. A study was regarded as population-based if it involved all residents within a specific area and the patients were representative of that area. To be included in the systematic review, ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease needed to be reported separately. Studies that did not report original data and studies that reported only the incidence or prevalence of paediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease (diagnosis at age <16 years) were excluded. We created choropleth maps for the incidence (119 studies) and prevalence (69 studies) of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. We used temporal trend analyses to report changes as an annual percentage change (APC) with 95% CI.

FINDINGS

We identified 147 studies that were eligible for final inclusion in the systematic review, including 119 studies of incidence and 69 studies of prevalence. The highest reported prevalence values were in Europe (ulcerative colitis 505 per 100 000 in Norway; Crohn's disease 322 per 100 000 in Germany) and North America (ulcerative colitis 286 per 100 000 in the USA; Crohn's disease 319 per 100 000 in Canada). The prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease exceeded 0·3% in North America, Oceania, and many countries in Europe. Overall, 16 (72·7%) of 22 studies on Crohn's disease and 15 (83·3%) of 18 studies on ulcerative colitis reported stable or decreasing incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in North America and Europe. Since 1990, incidence has been rising in newly industrialised countries in Africa, Asia, and South America, including Brazil (APC for Crohn's disease +11·1% [95% CI 4·8-17·8] and APC for ulcerative colitis +14·9% [10·4-19·6]) and Taiwan (APC for Crohn's disease +4·0% [1·0-7·1] and APC for ulcerative colitis +4·8% [1·8-8·0]).

INTERPRETATION

At the turn of the 21st century, inflammatory bowel disease has become a global disease with accelerating incidence in newly industrialised countries whose societies have become more westernised. Although incidence is stabilising in western countries, burden remains high as prevalence surpasses 0·3%. These data highlight the need for research into prevention of inflammatory bowel disease and innovations in health-care systems to manage this complex and costly disease.

FUNDING

None.

Mortality from tetanus between 1990 and 2015: findings from the global burden of disease study 2015

BACKGROUND

Although preventable, tetanus still claims tens of thousands of deaths each year. The patterns and distribution of mortality from tetanus have not been well characterized. We identified the global, regional, and national levels and trends of mortality from neonatal and non-neonatal tetanus based on the results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

METHODS

Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies and mortality surveillance data covering 12,534 site-years from 1980 to 2014 were used. Mortality from tetanus was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble modeling strategy.

RESULTS

There were 56,743 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 48,199 to 80,042) deaths due to tetanus in 2015; 19,937 (UI: 17,021 to 23,467) deaths occurred in neonates; and 36,806 (UI: 29,452 to 61,481) deaths occurred in older children and adults. Of the 19,937 neonatal tetanus deaths, 45% of deaths occurred in South Asia, and 44% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Of the 36,806 deaths after the neonatal period, 47% of deaths occurred in South Asia, 36% in sub-Saharan Africa, and 12% in Southeast Asia. Between 1990 and 2015, the global mortality rate due to neonatal tetanus dropped by 90% and that due to non-neonatal tetanus dropped by 81%. However, tetanus mortality rates were still high in a number of countries in 2015. The highest rates of neonatal tetanus mortality (more than 1,000 deaths per 100,000 population) were observed in Somalia, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Kenya. The highest rates of mortality from tetanus after the neonatal period (more than 5 deaths per 100,000 population) were observed in Somalia, South Sudan, and Kenya.

CONCLUSIONS

Though there have been tremendous strides globally in reducing the burden of tetanus, tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths from tetanus could be prevented each year by an already available inexpensive and effective vaccine. Availability of more high quality data could help narrow the uncertainty of tetanus mortality estimates.

Global epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection: An up-date of the distribution and circulation of hepatitis C virus genotypes

AIM

To review Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence and genotypes distribution worldwide.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic study which represents one of the most comprehensive effort to quantify global HCV epidemiology, using the best available published data between 2000 and 2015 from 138 countries (about 90% of the global population), grouped in 20 geographical areas (with the exclusion of Oceania), as defined by the Global Burden of Diseases project (GBD). Countries for which we were unable to obtain HCV genotype prevalence data were excluded from calculations of regional proportions, although their populations were included in the total population size of each region when generating regional genotype prevalence estimates.

RESULTS

Total global HCV prevalence is estimated at 2.5% (177.5 million of HCV infected adults), ranging from 2.9% in Africa and 1.3% in Americas, with a global viraemic rate of 67% (118.9 million of HCV RNA positive cases), varying from 64.4% in Asia to 74.8% in Australasia. HCV genotype 1 is the most prevalent worldwide (49.1%), followed by genotype 3 (17.9%), 4 (16.8%) and 2 (11.0%). Genotypes 5 and 6 are responsible for the remaining < 5%. While genotypes 1 and 3 are common worldwide, the largest proportion of genotypes 4 and 5 is in lower-income countries. Although HCV genotypes 1 and 3 infections are the most prevalent globally (67.0% if considered together), other genotypes are found more commonly in lower-income countries where still account for a significant proportion of HCV cases.

CONCLUSION

A more precise knowledge of HCV genotype distribution will be helpful to best inform national healthcare models to improve access to new treatments.

Australasian Diabetes Data Network: Building a Collaborative Resource

Australasia is a region with a high incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D). There are approximately 140 000 individuals with T1D, and of these 10 000 are children. Although the region covers a huge geographical area, most children with T1D are managed by tertiary academic centers in the major capital cities. Local longitudinal data collection has been in place for several decades in most of these centers, however ongoing national data collection had not been attempted. In 2012, with funding from the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation (JDRF) Australian Type 1 Clinical Research Network, a national collaboration was formed to provide ongoing longitudinal collection of T1D patient characteristics and outcomes. The initial phase of this collaboration, known as the Australasian Diabetes Data Network or ADDN, was led by the Australasian Paediatric Endocrine Group (APEG) and thus included only children and adolescents. The next phase, commenced in 2016, will see adult sites added through collaboration with the Australian Diabetes Society (ADS). As most of the initial centers had longitudinal data collection in place the model employed was to establish the transfer and collation of data already collected into a central database. This required the definition of a common data dictionary, ethics and governance procedures and the employment of technology to enable efficient and accurate information transfer and accessibility. The ADDN project received widespread support from the diabetes research community with study investigators representing 20 pediatric centers across the region. The first phase focused on the 5 largest centers and at the end of 2015 these centers were uploading patient data to the ADDN database on a quarterly basis resulting in 5271 patients with 83 506 diabetes visits.

Coronavirus Infection and Diversity in Bats in the Australasian Region

Following the SARS outbreak, extensive surveillance was undertaken globally to detect and identify coronavirus diversity in bats. This study sought to identify the diversity and prevalence of coronaviruses in bats in the Australasian region. We identified four different genotypes of coronavirus, three of which (an alphacoronavirus and two betacoronaviruses) are potentially new species, having less than 90% nucleotide sequence identity with the most closely related described viruses. We did not detect any SARS-like betacoronaviruses, despite targeting rhinolophid bats, the putative natural host taxa. Our findings support the virus-host co-evolution hypothesis, with the detection of Miniopterus bat coronavirus HKU8 (previously reported in Miniopterus species in China, Hong Kong and Bulgaria) in Australian Miniopterus species. Similarly, we detected a novel betacoronavirus genotype from Pteropus alecto which is most closely related to Bat coronavirus HKU9 identified in other pteropodid bats in China, Kenya and the Philippines. We also detected possible cross-species transmission of bat coronaviruses, and the apparent enteric tropism of these viruses. Thus, our findings are consistent with a scenario wherein the current diversity and host specificity of coronaviruses reflects co-evolution with the occasional host shift.

Epidemiology and antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of pathogens causing urinary tract infections in the Asia-Pacific region: Results from the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART), 2010-2013

A total of 9599 isolates of Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) causing urinary tract infections (UTIs) were collected from 60 centres in 13 countries in the Asia-Pacific region from 2010-2013. These isolates comprised Enterobacteriaceae species (mainly Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Proteus mirabilis, Klebsiella oxytoca, Enterobacter cloacae and Morganella morganii) and non-fermentative GNB species (predominantly Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Acinetobacter baumannii). In vitro susceptibilities were determined by the agar dilution method and susceptibility profiles were determined using the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) interpretive breakpoints recommended by the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute in 2015. Production of extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs) amongst E. coli, K. pneumoniae, P. mirabilis and K. oxytoca isolates was determined by the double-disk synergy test. China, Vietnam, India, Thailand and the Philippines had the highest rates of GNB species producing ESBLs and the highest rates of cephalosporin resistance. ESBL production and hospital-acquired infection (isolates obtained ≥48 h after admission) significantly compromised the susceptibility of isolates of E. coli and K. pneumoniae to ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin and most β-lactams, with the exception of imipenem and ertapenem. However, >87% of ESBL-producing E. coli strains were susceptible to amikacin and piperacillin/tazobactam, indicating that these antibiotics might be appropriate alternatives for treating UTIs due to ESBL-producing E. coli. Fluoroquinolones were shown to be inappropriate as empirical therapy for UTIs. Antibiotic resistance is a serious problem in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, continuous monitoring of evolutionary trends in the susceptibility profiles of GNB causing UTIs in Asia is crucial.

Therapeutic hypothermia is independently associated with favourable outcome after resuscitation from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a retrospective, observational cohort study

AIM

To determine the association between use of therapeutic hypothermia (TH) after resuscitation from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and neurological outcome.

METHOD

Retrospective observational cohort study in a tertiary university-associated Level III general ICU of 179 ICU patients in three cohorts ('pre' hypothermia: 58 patients, 'post' hypothermia 69 patients, 'recent' 52 patients) admitted between 1 January, 2009, and 15 April, 2011, after resuscitation from OHCA.

INTERVENTIONS

TH to 33C for 12 hours.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Favourable neurological outcome (transferred home) at hospital discharge.

RESULTS

The frequency of bystander CPR increased (38/58, 56/69, 47/52, p=0.04), as did the use of TH (0/58, 25/69, 39/52, p<0.00001) and the frequency of favourable neurological outcome between the three cohorts (21/58, 28/69, 32/52, p=0.02). The cohorts were similar in age, gender, shockable rhythm and time to ROSC. In multivariate analysis, favourable neurological outcome was independently associated with younger age (in 5-year intervals, OR 0.78 [0.67-0.90], p=0.001), bystander CPR (OR 4.8 [1.5-15], p=0.007), shockable rhythm (OR 3.5 [1.1-11], p=0.04), time to ROSC (OR 0.90 [0.86-0.94], p<0.0005) and use of TH (OR 2.8 [1.2-6.2], p=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of TH in patients admitted to ICU after resuscitation following OHCA was independently associated with favourable neurological outcome.

Targeting vivax malaria in the Asia Pacific: The Asia Pacific Malaria Elimination Network Vivax Working Group

The Asia Pacific Malaria Elimination Network (APMEN) is a collaboration of 18 country partners committed to eliminating malaria from within their borders. Over the past 5 years, APMEN has helped to build the knowledge, tools and in-country technical expertise required to attain this goal. At its inaugural meeting in Brisbane in 2009, Plasmodium vivax infections were identified across the region as a common threat to this ambitious programme; the APMEN Vivax Working Group was established to tackle specifically this issue. The Working Group developed a four-stage strategy to identify knowledge gaps, build regional consensus on shared priorities, generate evidence and change practice to optimize malaria elimination activities. This case study describes the issues faced and the solutions found in developing this robust strategic partnership between national programmes and research partners within the Working Group. The success of the approach adopted by the group may facilitate similar applications in other regions seeking to deploy evidence-based policy and practice.

The Molecular Epidemiology and Evolution of Murray Valley Encephalitis Virus: Recent Emergence of Distinct Sub-lineages of the Dominant Genotype 1

Background

Recent increased activity of the mosquito-borne Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) in Australia has renewed concerns regarding its potential to spread and cause disease.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To better understand the genetic relationships between earlier and more recent circulating strains, patterns of virus movement, as well as the molecular basis of MVEV evolution, complete pre-membrane (prM) and Envelope (Env) genes were sequenced from sixty-six MVEV strains from different regions of the Australasian region, isolated over a sixty year period (1951–2011). Phylogenetic analyses indicated that, of the four recognized genotypes, only G1 and G2 are contemporary. G1 viruses were dominant over the sampling period and found across the known geographic range of MVEV. Two distinct sub-lineages of G1 were observed (1A and 1B). Although G1B strains have been isolated from across mainland Australia, Australian G1A strains have not been detected outside northwest Australia. Similarly, G2 is comprised of only Western Australian isolates from mosquitoes, suggesting G1B and G2 viruses have geographic or ecological restrictions. No evidence of recombination was found and a single amino acid substitution in the Env protein (S332G) was found to be under positive selection, while several others were found to be under directional evolution. Evolutionary analyses indicated that extant genotypes of MVEV began to diverge from a common ancestor approximately 200 years ago. G2 was the first genotype to diverge, followed by G3 and G4, and finally G1, from which subtypes G1A and G1B diverged between 1964 and 1994.

Conclusions/Significance

The results of this study provides new insights into the genetic diversity and evolution of MVEV. The demonstration of co-circulation of all contemporary genetic lineages of MVEV in northwestern Australia, supports the contention that this region is the enzootic focus for this virus.

Murray Valley encephalitis virus is the most significant cause of mosquito-borne encephalitis in humans in Australia, and can also cause neurological disease in horses. This study reports an expanded phylogenetic study of this virus and the first molecular evolutionary analysis. Of the four recognized genotypes of Murray Valley encephalitis virus, only two were found to be actively circulating (genotypes 1 and 2), and genotype 1 was dominant. Distinct genetic sub-lineages within genotype 1 were found to have recently emerged. Molecular clock analysis indicated that genotype 2 viruses are the oldest genetic lineage while genotype 1 viruses are the most recent to diverge. The co-circulation of distinct genetic lineages of this virus in northwestern Australia, comprising the oldest and youngest lineages, supports previous findings that MVEV circulates endemically in this region.

Socioeconomic status in relation to cardiovascular disease and cause-specific mortality: a comparison of Asian and Australasian populations in a pooled analysis

OBJECTIVES

In Western countries, lower socioeconomic status is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature mortality. These associations may plausibly differ in Asian populations, but data are scarce and direct comparisons between the two regions are lacking. We, thus, aimed to compare such associations between Asian and Western populations in a large collaborative study, using the highest level of education attained as our measure of social status.

SETTING

Cohort studies in general populations conducted in Asia or Australasia.

PARTICIPANTS

303,036 people (71% from Asia) from 24 studies in the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration. Studies had to have a prospective cohort study design, have accumulated at least 5000 person-years of follow-up, recorded date of birth (or age), sex and blood pressure at baseline and date of, or age at, death during follow-up.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We used Cox regression models to estimate relationships between educational attainment and CVD (fatal or non-fatal), as well as all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality.

RESULTS

During more than two million person-years of follow-up, 11,065 deaths (3655 from CVD and 4313 from cancer) and 1809 CVD non-fatal events were recorded. Adjusting for classical CVD risk factors and alcohol drinking, hazard ratios (95% CIs) for primary relative to tertiary education in Asia (Australasia) were 1.81 (1.38, 2.36) (1.10 (0.99, 1.22)) for all-cause mortality, 2.47(1.47, 4.17) (1.24 (1.02, 1.51)) for CVD mortality, 1.66 (1.00, 2.78) (1.01 (0.87, 1.17)) for cancer mortality and 2.09 (1.34, 3.26) (1.23 (1.04, 1.46)) for all CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower educational attainment is associated with a higher risk of CVD or premature mortality in Asia, to a degree exceeding that in the Western populations of Australasia.

Mapping the differences in care for 5,000 spinal muscular atrophy patients, a survey of 24 national registries in North America, Australasia and Europe

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is an autosomal recessive genetic disorder characterised by the degeneration of motor neurons and progressive muscle weakness. It is caused by homozygous deletions in the survival motor neuron gene on chromosome 5. SMA shows a wide range of clinical severity, with SMA type I patients often dying before 2 years of age, whereas type III patients experience less severe clinical manifestations and can have a normal life span. Here, we describe the design, setup and utilisation of the TREAT-NMD national SMA patient registries characterised by a small, but fully standardised set of registry items and by genetic confirmation in all patients. We analyse a selection of clinical items from the SMA registries in order to provide a snapshot of the clinical data stratified by SMA subtype, and compare these results with published recommendations on standards of care. Our study included 5,068 SMA patients in 25 countries. A total of 615 patients were ventilated, either invasively (178) or non-invasively (437), 439 received tube feeding and 455 had had scoliosis surgery. Some of these interventions were not available to patients in all countries, but differences were also noted among high-income countries with comparable wealth and health care systems. This study provides the basis for further research, such as quality of life in ventilated SMA patients, and will inform clinical trial planning.

Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study

BACKGROUND

Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012).

CONCLUSIONS

We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Update on tick-borne rickettsioses around the world: a geographic approach

Tick-borne rickettsioses are caused by obligate intracellular bacteria belonging to the spotted fever group of the genus Rickettsia. These zoonoses are among the oldest known vector-borne diseases. However, in the past 25 years, the scope and importance of the recognized tick-associated rickettsial pathogens have increased dramatically, making this complex of diseases an ideal paradigm for the understanding of emerging and reemerging infections. Several species of tick-borne rickettsiae that were considered nonpathogenic for decades are now associated with human infections, and novel Rickettsia species of undetermined pathogenicity continue to be detected in or isolated from ticks around the world. This remarkable expansion of information has been driven largely by the use of molecular techniques that have facilitated the identification of novel and previously recognized rickettsiae in ticks. New approaches, such as swabbing of eschars to obtain material to be tested by PCR, have emerged in recent years and have played a role in describing emerging tick-borne rickettsioses. Here, we present the current knowledge on tick-borne rickettsiae and rickettsioses using a geographic approach toward the epidemiology of these diseases.

Predictors of large and small for gestational age birthweight in offspring of women with gestational diabetes mellitus

AIM

To identify predictors of large and small for gestational age in women with gestational diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

A retrospective audit of clinical data analysed for singleton births in women diagnosed with gestational diabetes by Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society guidelines from 1994 to 2009. Exclusions were: incomplete data, delivered at < 36 weeks gestation and/or last recorded weight > 4 weeks pre-delivery. We assessed: pre-pregnancy BMI, ethnicity, total maternal weight gain, weight gain before and after treatment initiation for gestational diabetes, HbA(1c) at gestational diabetes presentation and treatment modality (diet or insulin) and smoking. Birthweight was assessed using customized percentile charts (large for gestational age > 90th; small for gestational age < 10th percentile). Multiple regression analyses were undertaken; statistical significance was p < 0.05.

RESULTS

There were 1695 women first seen at (mean ± sd) 28.1 ± 5.3 weeks gestation (range 6-39). Ethnic mix was South-East Asian 36.7%, Middle Eastern 27.6%, European 22.4%, Indian/Pakistani 8.6%, Samoan 1.9%, African 1.5% and Maori 1.1%. Therapy was diet 69.1% and insulin 30.9%. Mean total weight gain was 12.3 ± 6.1 kg, the majority (10.6 ± 6.0 kg), gained before dietary intervention. There were 7.9% small for gestational age and 15.2% large for gestational age births. Significant independent large for gestational age predictors were: weight gain before intervention, pre-pregnancy BMI, weight gain after intervention and treatment type, but not HbA1c or smoking. Significant small for gestational age predictors were: weight gain before intervention, weight gain after intervention, but not pre-pregnancy BMI, HbA(1c) or smoking.

CONCLUSION

Conventional treatment for gestational diabetes mellitus concentrates on management of blood glucose levels. The trends identified here emphasize the need to also address pregnancy weight gain stratified by pre-pregnancy BMI.

The distribution of henipaviruses in Southeast Asia and Australasia: is Wallace's line a barrier to Nipah virus?

Nipah virus (NiV) (Genus Henipavirus) is a recently emerged zoonotic virus that causes severe disease in humans and has been found in bats of the genus Pteropus. Whilst NiV has not been detected in Australia, evidence for NiV-infection has been found in pteropid bats in some of Australia's closest neighbours. The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence of henipaviruses in fruit bat (Family Pteropodidae) populations to the north of Australia. In particular we tested the hypothesis that Nipah virus is restricted to west of Wallace's Line. Fruit bats from Australia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Indonesia were tested for the presence of antibodies to Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus, and tested for the presence of HeV, NiV or henipavirus RNA by PCR. Evidence was found for the presence of Nipah virus in both Pteropus vampyrus and Rousettus amplexicaudatus populations from East Timor. Serology and PCR also suggested the presence of a henipavirus that was neither HeV nor NiV in Pteropus alecto and Acerodon celebensis. The results demonstrate the presence of NiV in the fruit bat populations on the eastern side of Wallace's Line and within 500 km of Australia. They indicate the presence of non-NiV, non-HeV henipaviruses in fruit bat populations of Sulawesi and Sumba and possibly in Papua New Guinea. It appears that NiV is present where P. vampyrus occurs, such as in the fruit bat populations of Timor, but where this bat species is absent other henipaviruses may be present, as on Sulawesi and Sumba. Evidence was obtained for the presence henipaviruses in the non-Pteropid species R. amplexicaudatus and in A. celebensis. The findings of this work fill some gaps in knowledge in geographical and species distribution of henipaviruses in Australasia which will contribute to planning of risk management and surveillance activities.

Epidemiological and virological characteristics of influenza in the Western Pacific Region of the World Health Organization, 2006-2010

Background

Influenza causes yearly seasonal epidemics and periodic pandemics. Global systems have been established to monitor the evolution and impact of influenza viruses, yet regional analysis of surveillance findings has been limited. This study describes epidemiological and virological characteristics of influenza during 2006–2010 in the World Health Organization's Western Pacific Region.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus data were obtained from the 14 countries with National Influenza Centres. Data were obtained directly from countries and from FluNet, the web-based tool of the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System. National influenza surveillance and participation in the global system increased over the five years. Peaks in ILI reporting appeared to be coincident with the proportion of influenza positive specimens. Temporal patterns of ILI activity and the proportion of influenza positive specimens were clearly observed in temperate countries: Mongolia, Japan and the Republic of Korea in the northern hemisphere, and Australia, New Zealand, Fiji and New Caledonia (France) in the southern hemisphere. Two annual peaks in activity were observed in China from 2006 through the first quarter of 2009. A temporal pattern was less evident in tropical countries, where influenza activity was observed year-round. Influenza A viruses accounted for the majority of viruses reported between 2006 and 2009, but an equal proportion of influenza A and influenza B viruses was detected in 2010.

Conclusions/Significance

Despite differences in surveillance methods and intensity, commonalities in ILI and influenza virus circulation patterns were identified. Patterns suggest that influenza circulation may be dependent on a multitude of factors including seasonality and population movement. Dominant strains in Southeast Asian countries were later detected in other countries. Thus, timely reporting and regional sharing of information about influenza may serve as an early warning, and may assist countries to anticipate the potential severity and burden associated with incoming strains.

Pertussis control in the Asia-Pacific region: a report from the Global Pertussis Initiative

The Global Pertussis Initiative (GPI) is an expert, scientific forum that seeks to address the worldwide burden of pertussis. To reduce the global incidence of pertussis, the GPI recommends reinforcing and/or improving current infant and toddler immunization strategies, universal booster dosing of pre-school children, universal booster dosing of adolescents and adults (where appropriate), and cocooning to protect infants. To tailor these global recommendations to local needs, the GPI has hosted two meetings in Asia-Pacific. Pertussis vaccination practices differ across Asia-Pacific, with only some countries recommending booster dosing. Given the limited use of laboratory diagnostics, disease surveillance was considered inadequate. To make informed health policy decisions on pertussis prevention, more robust epidemiological data are needed. Because of its unique clinical presentation, adolescent and adult pertussis is under-recognized by lay and medical communities. Consequently, adolescent and adult disease likely exists even in Asian-Pacific countries where epidemiological data are presently lacking. In Asia-Pacific, there exist issues with health care access and costs. Fragmented health care will negatively impact the effectiveness of any proposed immunization strategies. The GPI recommends-in Asia-Pacific and elsewhere-that countries first educate lay and medical communities on pertussis, while simultaneously implementing robust surveillance practices. Once armed with sufficient epidemiological evidence, the prevention strategies recommended by the GPI can then be appropriately (and more effectively) introduced.

Children's antisocial behavior, mental health, drug use, and educational performance after parental incarceration: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Unprecedented numbers of children experience parental incarceration worldwide. Families and children of prisoners can experience multiple difficulties after parental incarceration, including traumatic separation, loneliness, stigma, confused explanations to children, unstable childcare arrangements, strained parenting, reduced income, and home, school, and neighborhood moves. Children of incarcerated parents often have multiple, stressful life events before parental incarceration. Theoretically, children with incarcerated parents may be at risk for a range of adverse behavioral outcomes. A systematic review was conducted to synthesize empirical evidence on associations between parental incarceration and children's later antisocial behavior, mental health problems, drug use, and educational performance. Results from 40 studies (including 7,374 children with incarcerated parents and 37,325 comparison children in 50 samples) were pooled in a meta-analysis. The most rigorous studies showed that parental incarceration is associated with higher risk for children's antisocial behavior, but not for mental health problems, drug use, or poor educational performance. Studies that controlled for parental criminality or children's antisocial behavior before parental incarceration had a pooled effect size of OR = 1.4 (p < .01), corresponding to about 10% increased risk for antisocial behavior among children with incarcerated parents, compared with peers. Effect sizes did not decrease with number of covariates controlled. However, the methodological quality of many studies was poor. More rigorous tests of the causal effects of parental incarceration are needed, using randomized designs and prospective longitudinal studies. Criminal justice reforms and national support systems might be needed to prevent harmful consequences of parental incarceration for children.

Influence of definition based versus pragmatic birth registration on international comparisons of perinatal and infant mortality: population based retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

To examine variations in the registration of extremely low birthweight and early gestation births and to assess their effect on perinatal and infant mortality rankings of industrialised countries.

DESIGN

Retrospective population based study.

SETTING

Australia, Canada, European countries, and the United States for 2004; Australia, Canada, and New Zealand for 2007.

POPULATION

National data on live births and on fetal, neonatal, and infant deaths.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Reported proportions of live births with birth weight/gestational age of less than 500 g, less than 1000 g, less than 24 weeks, and less than 28 weeks; crude rates of fetal, neonatal, and infant mortality; mortality rates calculated after exclusion of births under 500 g, under 1000 g, less than 24 weeks, and less than 28 weeks.

RESULTS

The proportion of live births under 500 g varied widely from less than 1 per 10,000 live births in Belgium and Ireland to 10.8 per 10,000 live births in Canada and 16.9 in the United States. Neonatal deaths under 500 g, as a proportion of all neonatal deaths, also ranged from less than 1% in countries such as Luxembourg and Malta to 29.6% in Canada and 31.1% in the United States. Rankings of countries based on crude fetal, neonatal, and infant mortality rates differed substantially from rankings based on rates calculated after exclusion of births with a birth weight of less than 1000 g or a gestational age of less than 28 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

International differences in reported rates of extremely low birthweight and very early gestation births probably reflect variations in registration of births and compromise the validity of international rankings of perinatal and infant mortality.

Cessation assistance reported by smokers in 15 countries participating in the International Tobacco Control (ITC) policy evaluation surveys

AIMS

To describe some of the variability across the world in levels of quit smoking attempts and use of various forms of cessation support.

DESIGN

Use of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project surveys of smokers, using the 2007 survey wave (or later, where necessary).

SETTINGS

Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Ireland, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, South Korea, Thailand, United Kingdom, Uruguay and United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Samples of smokers from 15 countries.

MEASUREMENTS

Self-report on use of cessation aids and on visits to health professionals and provision of cessation advice during the visits.

FINDINGS

Prevalence of quit attempts in the last year varied from less than 20% to more than 50% across countries. Similarly, smokers varied greatly in reporting visiting health professionals in the last year (<20% to over 70%), and among those who did, provision of advice to quit also varied greatly. There was also marked variability in the levels and types of help reported. Use of medication was generally more common than use of behavioural support, except where medications are not readily available.

CONCLUSIONS

There is wide variation across countries in rates of attempts to stop smoking and use of assistance with higher overall use of medication than behavioural support. There is also wide variation in the provision of brief advice to stop by health professionals.

International differences in alcohol use according to sexual orientation

Most research on sexual orientation and alcohol use in the United States has found higher rates of alcohol use and abuse among gay men and lesbians. Studies from other countries have found smaller or no differences between sexual minority and heterosexual women and men. The present study used general population survey data from 14 countries to examine high-volume and risky single-occasion drinking by sexual orientation. Data from 248 gay men and lesbians and 3720 heterosexuals were analyzed in a case-control design. In several countries partnered or recently partnered gay men and lesbians had no greater risk of heavy drinking or engaging in heavy drinking than heterosexual controls. Only lesbians in North America showed higher risk for both indicators. Future general population health research should include larger samples of gays and lesbians and use more comprehensive measures of sexual orientation for investigating the prevalence of health risk factors.

Global epidemiology of hepatitis B and hepatitis C in people who inject drugs: results of systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

Injecting drug use is an important risk factor for transmission of viral hepatitis, but detailed, transparent estimates of the scale of the issue do not exist. We estimated national, regional, and global prevalence and population size for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) in injecting drug users (IDUs).

METHODS

We systematically searched for data for HBV and HCV in IDUs in peer-reviewed databases (Medline, Embase, and PsycINFO), grey literature, conference abstracts, and online resources, and made a widely distributed call for additional data. From 4386 peer-reviewed and 1019 grey literature sources, we reviewed 1125 sources in full. We extracted studies into a customised database and graded them according to their methods. We included serological reports of HCV antibodies (anti-HCV), HBV antibodies (anti-HBc), or HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) in studies of IDUs with more than 40 participants (<100% HIV-positive) and sampling frames that did not exclude participants on the basis of age or sex. With endorsed decision rules, we calculated prevalence estimates with anti-HCV and anti-HBc as proxies for exposure and HBsAg as proxy for current infection. We combined these estimates with IDU population sizes to calculate the number of IDUs with positive HBV or HCV statuses.

FINDINGS

We located eligible reports with data for prevalence of anti-HCV in IDUs for 77 countries; midpoint prevalence estimates suggested 60-80% of IDUs had anti-HCV in 25 countries and more than 80% of IDUs did so in 12 countries. About 10.0 million (range 6.0-15.2) IDUs worldwide might be anti-HCV positive. China (1.6 million), USA (1.5 million), and Russia (1.3 million) had the largest such populations. We identified eligible HBsAg reports for 59 countries, with midpoint prevalence estimates of 5-10% in 21 countries and more than 10% in ten countries. Worldwide, we estimate 6.4 million IDUs are anti-HBc positive (2.3-9.7 million), and 1.2 million (0.3-2.7 million) are HBsAg positive.

INTERPRETATION

More IDUs have anti-HCV than HIV infection, and viral hepatitis poses a key challenge to public health. Variation in the coverage and quality of existing research creates uncertainty around estimates. Improved and more complete data and reporting are needed to estimate the scale of the issue, which will inform efforts to prevent and treat HCV and HBV in IDUs.

FUNDING

WHO and US National Institutes of Health (NIDA R01 DA018609).

Passenger vehicle safety in Australasia for different driver groups

Vehicle fleets in developed countries have benefitted from improved technology and regulation leading to safer vehicles. Nevertheless, for various reasons the public do not necessarily choose particular makes and models of cars according to their safety performance. This study aimed to identify areas for potential crashworthiness improvement in the Australasian fleets by studying the distribution of these fleets according to vehicle age and estimated crashworthiness. We used an existing database that encompassed the vast majority of the crash fleets studied, with existing estimates of crashworthiness generated by the Australasian Used Car Safety Ratings project. There were clear tendencies for older and younger people to be driving less safe vehicles that were also generally older. Given that older drivers are more fragile, and hence more liable to be injured in crashes, and younger drivers have a greater propensity to crash, it is clearly undesirable that these driver groups have the least crashworthy vehicles. Some suggestions are made to encourage safer vehicle choices.

WHO Western Pacific and South East Asian Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programmes. Surveillance of antibiotic resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae in the WHO Western Pacific and South East Asian Regions, 2009

Long-term surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae has been conducted in the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Region (WPR) to optimise antibiotic treatment of gonococcal disease since 1992. From 2007, the Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (GASP) has been enhanced by the inclusion of data from the South East Asian Region (SEAR) and recruitment of additional centres in the WPR. Approximately 8,704 isolates of N. gonorrhoeae were examined for their susceptibility to one or more antibiotics used for the treatment of gonorrhoea, incorporating External Quality Assurance controlled methods, from reporting centres in 21 countries and/or jurisdictions. A high proportion of penicillin and/or quinolone resistance was again detected amongst isolates tested in North Asia and the WHO SEAR. In contrast, from the Pacific Island states Fiji reported low penicillin and quinolone resistance, New Caledonia again reported no penicillin resistance and little quinolone resistance, Tonga reported no penicillin resistance and there was a continued absence of quinolone resistance reported in Papua New Guinea in 2009. The proportion of gonococci reported as 'decreased susceptibility' and 'resistant' to the third-generation cephalosporin antibiotic ceftriaxone varied widely but no major changes were evident in cephalosporin minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) patterns in 2009. Altered cephalosporin susceptibility has been associated with treatment failures following therapy with oral third-generation cephalosporins. There is a need for revision and clarification of some of the in vitro criteria that are currently used to categorise the clinical importance of gonococci with different ceftriaxone and oral cephalosporin MIC levels. The number of instances of spectinomycin resistance remained low. A high proportion of strains tested continued to exhibit high-level plasmid mediated resistance to tetracyclines. The continuing emergence and spread of antibiotic resistant gonococci in and from the WHO WPR and SEAR suggests that surveillance programs such as GASP be maintained and expanded.