30 years of climate related phenological research: themes and trends

Anthropogenic climate change has caused changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of life-cycle events with consequential impacts on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity. Over the last 30 years, climate-related phenological research has expanded rapidly. To identify key themes and knowledge gaps in this research landscape we used a text-based analysis approach, topic modelling. Our systematic literature search identified 4,681 publications on phenology between 1989 and 2019. We showed taxonomic and geographic bias in the literature with a large proportion of publications on bird migration and reproduction, insect phenology, marine phenology, and agriculture, focused within the Northern hemisphere. Our results reflected the decadal advances in technology, for example remote sensing studies increased the most in popularity. Topics related to genetics increased along with mismatching, which has impacts on species fitness. While climate-based topics were highly connected, there was little connectivity between different disciplines and newer areas of research. Remote sensing rarely co-occurred with other topics, insect phenology was either being studied with plants or birds instead of being considered as part of a network, and mismatching was rarely studied alongside other methodologies in phenological research. We suggest that transdisciplinary research considering species as part of a system and analyzing new or understudied taxa and regions should be prioritized. The disjuncts identified in this analysis inhibit development of a coherent view of the impact of phenological changes on biodiversity and will have implications for conservation management.

How phenology interacts with frost tolerance in Southeastern Himalayan Rhododendron species

The frost resistance of new foliage and flowers and their relationship with the phenology of leaf-out and flowering are essential for explaining plant species distribution in seasonally cold climates. In this study, we performed a congeneric, elevational comparison of phenology with frost resistance in evergreen Rhododendron species in the Southeastern Himalayas. A comparison of the microclimate with long-term meteorological records of low temperature extremes permitted the calculation of a realistic, long-term margin of safety for 12 Rhododendron species. Surprisingly, frost resistance and phenological events were matching for leaf-out time (not flowering) in higher elevation species only. Flower-leaf sequence (FLS) and frost resistance were linked for species at higher elevation and the earliest flowering species at lower elevation only. Despite a selection of FLS by elevation, flowers (including petals, filaments and ovaries) were still prone to frost damage during the early growing season at both lower and higher elevations, while new leaves were generally safe on long-term scales, regardless of phenology and elevation. In contrast to lower montane elevation, where severe frost is rare in spring, treeline elevation species maintain safety margins over centennial time-scales by adjusting leaf-out phenology. Our data show an evolutionary priority of leaf survival over flower survival. Both, physiological acclimation and phylogenetic components contribute to these adjustments. Rare extreme frost events restrict the upper range limit of the examined Rhododendron species by affecting new foliage. It is essential to know the actual temperature extremes at organ level rather than relying on weather station records.

Snow Height Sensors Reveal Phenological Advance in Alpine Grasslands

Long-term phenological data in alpine regions are often limited to a few locations and thus, little is known about climate-change-induced plant phenological shifts above the treeline. Because plant growth initiation in seasonally snow-covered regions is largely driven by snowmelt timing and local temperature, it is essential to simultaneously track phenological shifts, snowmelt, and near-ground temperatures. In this study, we make use of ultrasonic snow height sensors installed at climate stations in the Swiss Alps to reveal the phenological advance of grassland ecosystems and relate them to climatic changes over 25 years (1998-2023). When snow is absent, these snow height sensors additionally provide information on plant growth at a uniquely fine temporal scale. We applied a two-step machine learning algorithm to separate snow- from plant-height measurements, allowing us to determine melt-out for 122 stations between 1560 and 2950 m a.s.l., and to extract seasonal plant growth signals for a subset of 40 stations used for phenological analyses. We identified the start of growth and calculated temperature trends, focusing particularly on thermal conditions between melt-out and growth initiation. We observed an advance of green-up by -2.4 days/decade coinciding with strong warming of up to +0.8°C/decade. Although the timing of snowmelt has not changed significantly over the study period in this focal region, phenological responses to early melt-out years varied due to differing influences of photoperiodic and thermal constraints, which were not equally important across elevations and communities. Phenological shifts of alpine grasslands are thus likely to become even more pronounced if snowmelt timing advances in the future as predicted. As climate change continues to reshape mountain ecosystems, understanding the interplay between phenological changes and species turnover will be essential for predicting future biodiversity patterns and informing conservation strategies in alpine regions.

Snow melt-out date (SMOD) change spanning four decades in European temperate mountains at 30 m from Landsat time series

Documenting long-term snow cover changes at high spatial resolution is especially challenging in mountain environments due to limited high-elevation ground observations and the coarse resolution of current climate models. This paper presents a dataset of snow melt-out dates (SMOD) at 30-m spatial resolution for two periods-the 1990s (1985-1996) and the 2010s (2011-2022)-across temperate European mountain ranges (Pyrenees, European Alps, and Greater Caucasus), derived from Landsat time series. To address the limited number of observations in the Landsat archive, data were aggregated over 12-year periods, enabling assessment of SMOD changes over four decades at a spatial resolution relevant to above-treeline ecosystems. The SMOD dataset was validated using snow depth station records (R2 ~ 0.75, MAE ~ 7 days) and soil temperature data (R2 ~ 0.7, MAE ~ 10 days) from the Pyrenees and European Alps. Potential applications of the dataset extend beyond alpine ecology, with possible contributions to risk assessments, hydrology, and snow climatology in the context of climate change.

Extreme cold reduces seedling establishment, but native species appear more susceptible than non-native species

PREMISE

Extreme-cold events are increasingly recognized as one of the most damaging aspects of climate change in northern temperate ecosystems. However, little data exists describing how native and non-native species may respond to these extreme events, especially as seeds. We used a greenhouse experiment to test how extreme cold reduces seedling establishment in seven woody species common to eastern North America. We hypothesized that the effects of extreme cold depend on provenance (native vs. non-native) and chilling period.

METHODS

Following chilling periods of 80, 100, or 120 days, seeds experienced a false-spring with temperatures at 15°C for one week; half of the seeds in each dormancy treatment group experienced a two-day extreme-cold event (-13.9°C) while the rest returned to mild winter temperatures (4°C).

RESULTS

Extreme-cold events universally decreased seedling establishment, but non-native species had four times greater survival in the extreme-cold treatment (mean ± s.e.: 0.108 ± 0.024) compared to native species (0.024 ± 0.018). Furthermore, native seeds were increasingly susceptible to extreme-cold damage following a 120-day chilling period, whereas non-native seeds were able to resist extreme cold equally following all chilling periods.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that in eastern North America, cold resistance could be a trait facilitating the success of non-native species. The introduction of non-native species may synergize with climate change to alter community composition, which could have important consequences for forest biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

Trade-off between spring phenological sensitivities to temperature and precipitation across species and space in alpine grasslands over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Elucidating climatic drivers of spring phenology in alpine grasslands is critical. However, current statistical estimates of spring phenological sensitivities to temperature and precipitation (βT and βP) might be biased and their variability across sites and species are not fully explained. We benchmarked species-level βT and βP statistically inferred from historical records with observations from a field manipulative experiment. We then analyzed landscape scale βT and βP estimated from the best statistical approach in the benchmark analysis across 57 alpine grassland sites in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Compared with manipulative experiment results, process-agnostic regression-based approaches underestimate βT by 2.36-3.87 d °C-1 (54-88%) while process-based phenology model fitting predicts comparable βT and βP. Process-based estimates of βT and βP are negatively correlated across species (R = -0.94, P < 0.01) and across sites (R = -0.45, P < 0.01). βT is positively correlated with mean annual temperature, and βP is negatively correlated with elevation at the regional scale. Using process-based model fitting can better estimate spring phenological sensitivities to climate. The trade-off between βT and βP contributes to species-level and site-level variabilities in phenological sensitivities in alpine grasslands, which needs to be incorporated in predicting future phenological changes.

Changes in cranberry phenology from 1958 to 2022: Implications for spring frost protection in Massachusetts, United States

Warmer temperatures associated with climate change have affected the phenology of most plants, but limited information exists for the American cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon Ait.), an important specialty crop. We examined long-term spatiotemporal trends in spring development of cranberry buds using field observations of cranberry bud stages over a 65-yr period, spanning from 1958-2022. A growing degree day (GDD) model was further used to interpret the observed trends in bud development over the study period. To assess spatial variability in cranberry bud development, the GDDs were computed using gridded weather data for four counties of Massachusetts, representing 85% of the state's cranberry acreage. A Theil-Sen linear regression model was implemented to determine trends in the occurrence of the bud stages. Field observations revealed significant temporal trends (p-value < 0.01) in the annual timing of white bud and cabbage head stages, occurring 18-20 days earlier in the spring than 65 years ago. This earlier bud development can increase the risk of frost damage, especially during late-spring freezes. GDDs accumulated at a faster rate towards the end of the study period due to rising air temperatures. Analysis of 65 years of gridded data revealed a significant trend of earlier development across the four counties. The rate of advancement in cabbage head stage ranged from -0.15 to -0.25 d yr -1 across the study area. These findings highlight the need for updated frost forecasting models that account for the changing growth schedule of cranberry.

Phenological Shifts Since 1830 in 29 Native Plant Species of California and Their Responses to Historical Climate Change

Climate change is affecting Mediterranean climate regions, such as California. Retrospective phenological studies are a useful tool to track biological response to these impacts through the use of herbarium-preserved specimens. We used data from more than 12,000 herbarium specimens of 29 dominant native plant species that are characteristic of 12 broadly distributed vegetation types to investigate phenological patterns in response to climate change. We analyzed the trends of four phenophases: preflowering (FBF), flowering (F), fruiting (FS) and growth (DVG), over time (from 1830 to 2023) and through changes in climate variables (from 1896 to 2023). We also examined these trends within California's 10 ecoregions. Among the four phenophases, the strongest response was found in the timing of flowering, which showed an advance in 28 species. Furthermore, 21 species showed sequencing in the advance of two or more phenophases. We highlight the advances found over temperature variables: 10 in FBF, 28 in F, 17 in FS and 18 in DVG. Diverse and less-consistent results were found for water-related variables with 15 species advancing and 11 delaying various phenophases in response to decreasing precipitation and increasing evapotranspiration. Jepson ecoregions displayed a more pronounced advance in F related to time and mean annual temperature in the three of the southern regions compared to the northern ones. This study underscores the role of temperature in driving phenological change, demonstrating how rising temperatures have predominantly advanced phenophase timing. These findings highlight potential threats, including risks of climatic, ecological, and biological imbalances.

Latitudinal clines in the phenology of floral display associated with adaptive evolution during a biological invasion

PREMISE

Flowering phenology strongly influences reproductive success in plants. Days to first flower is easy to quantify and widely used to characterize phenology, but reproductive fitness depends on the full schedule of flower production over time. We investigated flowering schedules in relation to the onset and duration of flowering and tested for latitudinal clines in schedule shape associated with rapid evolution and range expansion of an invasive plant.

METHODS

We examined floral display traits among 13 populations of Lythrum salicaria, sampled along a 10-degree latitudinal gradient in eastern North America. We grew these collections in a common garden field experiment at a mid-latitude site and quantified variation in flowering schedule shape using principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and quantitative metrics analogous to central moments of probability distributions (i.e., mean, variance, skew, and kurtosis).

RESULTS

Consistent with earlier evidence for adaptation to shorter growing seasons, we found that populations from higher latitudes had earlier start and mean flowering day, on average, when compared to populations from southern latitudes. Flowering skew increased with latitude, whereas kurtosis decreased, consistent with a bet-hedging strategy in biotic environments with more herbivores and greater competition for pollinators.

CONCLUSIONS

Heritable clines in flowering schedules are consistent with adaptive evolution in response to a predicted shift toward weaker biotic interactions and less variable but more stressful abiotic environments at higher latitudes, potentially contributing to rapid evolution and range expansion of this invasive species.

Global change aggravates drought, with consequences for plant reproduction

BACKGROUND

The frequency and intensity of droughts are expected to increase under global change, driven by anthropogenic climate change and water diversion. Precipitation is expected to become more episodic under climate change, with longer and warmer dry spells, although some areas might become wetter. Diversion of freshwater from lakes and rivers and groundwater pumping for irrigation of agricultural fields are lowering water availability to wild plant populations, increasing the frequency and intensity of drought. Given the importance of seasonal changes and extremes in soil moisture to influence plant reproduction, and because the majority of plants are flowering plants and most of them depend on pollinators for seed production, this review focuses on the consequences of drought on different aspects of reproduction in animal-pollinated angiosperms, emphasizing interactions among drought, flowering and pollination.

SCOPE

Visual and olfactory traits play crucial roles in attracting pollinators. Drought-induced floral changes can influence pollinator attraction and visitation, together with pollinator networks and flowering phenology, with subsequent effects on plant reproduction. Here, we review how drought influences these different aspects of plant reproduction. We identify knowledge gaps and highlight areas that would benefit from additional research.

CONCLUSIONS

Visual and olfactory traits are affected by drought, but their phenotypic responses can vary with floral sex, plant sex, population and species. Ample phenotypic plasticity to drought exists for these traits, providing an ability for a rapid response to a change in drought frequency and intensity engendered by global change. The impact of these drought-induced changes in floral traits on pollinator attraction, pollen deposition and plant reproductive success does not show a clear pattern. Drought affects the structure of plant-pollinator networks and can modify plant phenology. The impact of drought on plant reproduction is not always negative, and we need to identify plant characteristics associated with these more positive responses.

Flowering time responses to warming drive reproductive fitness in a changing Arctic

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate, leading to earlier spring conditions and plant phenology. It is often unclear to what degree changes in reproductive fitness (flower, fruit and seed production) are a direct response to warming versus an indirect response through shifting phenology. The aim of this study was to quantify the relative importance of these direct and indirect pathways and project the net effects of warming on plant phenology and reproductive fitness under current and future climate scenarios.

METHODS

We used two long-term datasets on 12 tundra species in the Canadian Arctic as part of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). Phenology and reproductive fitness were recorded annually on tagged individual plants at both Daring Lake, Northwest Territories (64° 52' N, - 111° 35' W) and Alexandra Fiord, Nunavut (78° 49' N, - 75° 48' W). The plant species encompassed a wide taxonomic diversity across a range of plant functional types with circumpolar/boreal distributions. We used hierarchical Bayesian structural equation models to compare the direct and indirect effects of climate warming on phenology and reproductive fitness across species, sites and years.

KEY RESULTS

We found that warming, both experimental and ambient, drove earlier flowering across species, which led to higher numbers of flowers and fruits produced, reflecting directional phenotypic selection for earlier flowering phenology. Furthermore, this indirect effect of climate warming mediated through phenology was generally about two to three times stronger than the direct effect of climate on reproductive fitness. Under future climate predictions, individual plants showed a ~2- to 4.5-fold increase in their reproductive fitness (flower counts) with advanced flowering phenology.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that, on average, the benefits of early flowering, such as increased development time and subsequent enhanced reproductive fitness, might outweigh its risks. Overall, this work provides important insights into population-level consequences of phenological shifts in a warming Arctic over multi-decadal time scales.

Species that require long-day conditions to flower are not advancing their flowering phenology as fast as species without photoperiod requirements

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Over the last few decades, many plant species have shown changes in phenology, such as the date on which they germinate, bud or flower. However, some species are changing more slowly than others, potentially owing to daylength (photoperiod) requirements.

METHODS

We combined data on flowering-time advancement with published records of photoperiod sensitivity to try to predict which species are advancing their flowering time. Data availability limited us to the Northern Hemisphere.

KEY RESULTS

Cross-species analyses showed that short-day plants advanced their flowering time by 1.4 days per decade and day-neutral plants by 0.9 days per decade, but long-day plants delayed their flowering by 0.2 days per decade. However, photoperiod-sensitivity status exhibited moderate phylogenetic conservation, and the differences in flowering-time advancement were not significant after phylogeny was accounted for. Both annual and perennial herbs were more likely to have long-day photoperiod cues than woody species, which were more likely to have short-day photoperiod cues.

CONCLUSIONS

Short-day plants are keeping up with plants that do not have photoperiod requirements, suggesting that daylength requirements do not hinder changes in phenology. However, long-day plants are not changing their phenology and might risk falling behind as competitors and pollinators adapt to climate change.

Effects of experimental warming on floral scent, display and rewards in two subalpine herbs

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Floral volatiles, visual traits and rewards mediate attraction and defence in plant-pollinator and plant-herbivore interactions, but these floral traits might be altered by global warming through direct effects of temperature or longer-term impacts on plant resources. We examined the effect of warming on floral and leaf volatile emissions, floral morphology, plant height, nectar production, and oviposition by seed predators.

METHODS

We used open-top chambers that warmed plants in the field by +2-3 °C on average (+6-11 °C increase in daily maxima) for 2-4 weeks across 1-3 years at three sites in Colorado, USA. Volatiles were sampled from two closely related species of subalpine Ipomopsis with different pollinators: Ipomopsis aggregata ssp. aggregata, visited mainly by hummingbirds, and Ipomopsis tenuituba ssp. tenuituba, often visited by hawkmoths.

KEY RESULTS

Although warming had no detected effects on leaf volatiles, the daytime floral volatiles of both I. aggregata and I. tenuituba responded in subtle ways to warming, with impacts that depended on the species, site and year. In addition to the long-term effect of warming, temperature at the time of sampling independently affected the floral volatile emissions of I. aggregata during the day and I. tenuituba at night. Warming had little effect on floral morphology for either species and it had no effect on nectar concentration, maximum inflorescence height or flower redness in I. aggregata. However, warming increased nectar production in I. aggregata by 41 %, a response that would attract more hummingbird visits, and it reduced oviposition by fly seed predators by ≥72 %.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that floral traits can show different levels of plasticity to temperature changes in subalpine environments, with potential effects on animal behaviours that help or hinder plant reproduction. They also illustrate the need for more long-term field warming studies, as shown by responses of floral volatiles in different ways to weeks of warming vs. temperature at the time of sampling.

Warming-induced changes in seasonal priority effects drive shifts in community composition

Shifting community assembly dynamics are an underappreciated mechanism by which warming will alter plant community composition. Germination timing (which can determine the order in which seedlings emerge within a community) will likely shift unevenly across species in response to warming. In seasonal environments where communities reassemble at the beginning of each growing season, changes in germination timing could lead to changes in seasonal priority effects, and ultimately community composition. We test this expectation by assembling mesocosms of 15 species in one of two orders-"ambient" assembly order or "warmed" assembly order-based on the order in which the constituent species germinated under ambient and warmed conditions. Community composition differed significantly between mesocosms assembled in ambient versus warmed orders. The impact of assembly order on species mean biomass was largely explained by how much earlier (or later) a species arrived in the warmed-order treatment relative to the ambient-order treatment. Species whose germination phenology advanced more under warmed conditions relative to ambient conditions showed greater relative increases in biomass under the warmed assembly treatment. These findings demonstrate that warming can drive community assembly and shape community composition by reordering the relative timing of germination among species. These findings enhance our ability to predict which species are likely to benefit from warming and which may decline based on how warming may shift assembly order, ultimately informing how warming may alter plant communities.

Capital and income breeders among herbs: how relative biomass allocation into a storage organ relates to clonal traits, phenology and environmental gradients

Perennial herbs of seasonal climates invest carbon into belowground storage organs (e.g. rhizomes) to support growth when photosynthetic acquisition cannot cover demands. An alternative explanation interprets storage allocation as surplus carbon that is undeployable for growth when plants are limited by nutrients/water. We analysed relative investments to rhizomes to see to which of these explanations they align, and asked whether they scale with biomass of aboveground organs in individual species and whether clonal growth traits, phenology or environmental conditions explain investment among populations or species. We measured biomass of rhizomes, aboveground stems and leaves in 20 temperate herbaceous perennial species, each at two localities, establishing allometric relationships for pairs of organs. We correlated relative rhizome investment with clonal traits, environmental gradients and phenology, across species. For pairs of organs, biomass typically scales isometrically. Interspecific allocation differences are largely explained by phenology. Neither interspecific nor intraspecific differences were explained by clonal traits or environment. Storage organs of perennial herbs do not comprise deposition of carbon surplus, but receive greater allocation in capital breeders (early-flowering), than among income breeders (late-flowering) relying on acquisition during growing season. Capital and income breeders in plants deserve further examination of benefits/costs.

Diminishing warming effects on plant phenology over time

Plant phenology, the timing of recurrent biological events, shows key and complex response to climate warming, with consequences for ecosystem functions and services. A key challenge for predicting plant phenology under future climates is to determine whether the phenological changes will persist with more intensive and long-term warming. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of 103 experimental warming studies around the globe to investigate the responses of four phenophases - leaf-out, first flowering, last flowering, and leaf coloring. We showed that warming advanced leaf-out and flowering but delayed leaf coloring across herbaceous and woody plants. As the magnitude of warming increased, the response of most plant phenophases gradually leveled off for herbaceous plants, while phenology responded in proportion to warming in woody plants. We also found that the experimental effects of warming on plant phenology diminished over time across all phenophases. Specifically, the rate of changes in first flowering for herbaceous species, as well as leaf-out and leaf coloring for woody species, decreased as the experimental duration extended. Together, these results suggest that the real-world impact of global warming on plant phenology will diminish over time as temperatures continue to increase.

The Late Orchid Catches the Bee: Frost Damage and Pollination Success in the Face of Global Warming in a European Terrestrial Orchid

Global warming changes flowering times of many plant species, with potential impacts on frost damage and their synchronization with pollinator activity. These effects can have severe impacts on plant fitness, yet we know little about how frequently they occur and the extent of damage they cause. We addressed this topic in a thermophilic orchid with a highly specific pollination mechanism, the Small Spider Orchid, Ophrys araneola RchB, in six populations in Northern Switzerland. We measured flowering time, frost damage, and fruiting success in 1250 individually marked plants during 3 years, and documented spring temperatures. Using regression models with historical climate data, we estimated past and future frost damage. In addition, we analyzed historical records of the orchid and its only verified pollinator, the solitary bee Andrena combinata in Northern Switzerland, to estimate potential desynchronization between flowering and pollinator activity due to climate change. Increased spring temperatures accelerated flowering time, and together with the number of frost days explained frost damage well. Frost damage was severe and early-flowering plants were more likely to be damaged. Historical climate data suggested frost damage has increased in the last decades and may increase further in the future. All populations but one had very low fruit set, and plants that flowered earlier were less likely to set fruit. The historical data from between 1970 and 2019 showed a significant advance of flowering- and pollinator occurrence time in the last decades, but to a similar degree in orchids and bees. Our study shows that the orchid, despite being limited to warm habitats in central Europe, suffers under global warming by increased frost damage caused by earlier flowering. We did not detect an effect of accelerated flowering on desynchronization in flowering time and pollinator activity in this orchid species.

Honey bees and bumble bees react differently to nitrogen-induced increases in floral resources

Atmospheric and soil nitrogen levels are increasing across the world. Nitrogen addition can alter vegetative and flower traits, including flowering phenology, floral production, and flower morphology, and the quantity and quality of floral rewards such as nectar. However, it is not well understood if and how these changes in floral traits will affect foraging preferences and pollination by different pollinator species. We hypothesized that honey bees (Apis mellifera) would exhibit a preference for plants with increased numbers of flowers, while bumble bees (Bombus spp.) would exhibit a preference for plants with increased nectar production as a result of soil nitrogen addition. A 2-yr field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of varying nitrogen supply levels (e.g., 0, 4, 8 kg N ha-1 yr-1 of N0, N4, and N8) on the vegetative and floral traits of a perennial plant (Saussurea nigrescens), as well as the visitation rates of introduced managed honey bees (A. mellifera) and the native wild bumble bees. The results showed that adding nitrogen increased the number of flowers and nectar production. However, honey bees and bumble bees were responding to different floral resources that induced by nitrogen addition, with honey bees prioritizing the number of flowers and bumble bees prioritizing nectar quantity. The findings shed new light on how plants and pollinators interact when nitrogen is added, as well as how pollinator communities will be affected in the future.

Cross-continental comparison of plant reproductive phenology shows high intraspecific variation in temperature sensitivity

The success of plant species under climate change will be determined, in part, by their phenological responses to temperature. Despite the growing need to forecast such outcomes across entire species ranges, it remains unclear how phenological sensitivity to temperature might vary across individuals of the same species. In this study, we harnessed community science data to document intraspecific patterns in phenological temperature sensitivity across the multicontinental range of six herbaceous plant species. Using linear models, we correlated georeferenced temperature data with 23 220 plant phenological records from iNaturalist to generate spatially explicit estimates of phenological temperature sensitivity across the shared range of species. We additionally evaluated the geographic association between local historic climate conditions (i.e. mean annual temperature [MAT] and interannual variability in temperature) and the temperature sensitivity of plants. We found that plant temperature sensitivity varied substantially at both the interspecific and intraspecific levels, demonstrating that phenological responses to climate change have the potential to vary both within and among species. Additionally, we provide evidence for a strong geographic association between plant temperature sensitivity and local historic climate conditions. Plants were more sensitive to temperature in hotter climates (i.e. regions with high MAT), but only in regions with high interannual temperature variability. In regions with low interannual temperature variability, plants displayed universally weak sensitivity to temperature, regardless of baseline annual temperature. This evidence suggests that pheno-climatic forecasts may be improved by accounting for intraspecific variation in phenological temperature sensitivity. Broad climatic factors such as MAT and interannual temperature variability likely serve as useful predictors for estimating temperature sensitivity across species' ranges.

Widespread homogenization in vegetation activities along the elevational gradients across the Himalaya over the past 40 years

Mountainous regions are vital biodiversity hotspots with high heterogeneity, providing essential refugia for vegetation. However, climate change threatens this diversity with the potential homogenization of the distinct environmental conditions at different elevations. Here, we used a time-series (1985-2023) of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Landsat archives (30 m) to quantify vegetation changes across an elevation gradient on Himalaya Mountain. Our analysis revealed that over the past 40 years, the Himalayas have experienced widespread greening, accompanied by homogenization of vegetation across elevations. This homogenization, characterized by a reduction in the differences between high and low elevations, can be attributed to two main factors: (1) increased warming and a higher snowmelt rate at high elevations, facilitating rapid changes in high-elevation vegetation activities; and (2) higher anthropogenic disturbance at low and mid elevations, thus inhibiting low-elevation vegetation. These factors have resulted in a reduction of habitat differentiation along the mountain slopes, homogenizing vegetation and potentially threatening the unique biodiversity adapted to specific elevational zones. Our findings emphasize the urgent need for conservation strategies that prioritize the protection of heterogeneous mountain habitats to preserve their rich biodiversity in the face of climate change.

Flowering in the Northern Hemisphere is delayed by frost after leaf-out

Late spring frosts, occurring after spring phenological events, pose a dire threat to tree growth and forest productivity. With climate warming, earlier spring phenological events have become increasingly common and led to plants experiencing more frequent and severe frost damage. However, the effect of late spring frosts after leaf-out on subsequent flowering phenology in woody species remains unknown. Utilizing 572,734 phenological records of 640 species at 5024 sites from four long-term and large-scale in situ phenological networks across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that late spring frosts following leaf-out significantly delay the onset of the subsequent flowering by approximately 6.0 days. Late-leafing species exhibit greater sensitivity to the frosts than early-leafing species, resulting in a longer delay of 2.5 days in flowering. Trees in warm regions and periods exhibit a more pronounced frost-induced flowering delay compared to those in cold regions and periods. A significant increase in the frequency of late spring frost occurrence is observed in recent decades. Our findings elucidate the intricate relationships among leaf-out, frost, and flowering but also emphasize that the sequential progression of phenological events, rather than individual phenological stages, should be considered when assessing the phenological responses to climate change.

Warming reduces mid-summer flowering plant reproductive success through advancing fruiting phenology in an alpine meadow

Changes in reproductive phenology induced by warming are happening across the globe, with significant implications for plant sexual reproduction. However, the changes in plant reproductive output (number of flowers and fruits) and success (successful fruits/total flowers) in response to climate change have not been well characterized. Here, we conducted a warming and altered precipitation experiment in an alpine meadow on the eastern Tibetan Plateau to investigate the effects of climate change on the reproductive phenology and success of six common species belonging to two flowering functional groups. We found that warming advanced the start of flowering and the start of fruiting in mid-summerflowering plants. Warming reduced the reproductive output of early-spring flowering plants but did not change their reproductive success. The effects of warming and altered precipitation on the reproductive output and success of mid-summer flowering plants were year-dependent, and the fruiting phenology regulated the response of the mid-summer flowering plant's reproductive success to climate change. These findings highlight the critical role of fruiting phenology in the reproductive success of alpine plants and imply that alpine plants may reduce their fitness by producing fewer flowers and fruits under climate warming, especially for later flowering plants.

Distinct latitudinal patterns of shifting spring phenology across the Appalachian Trail Corridor

Warming associated with climate change will advance the onset of spring phenology for many forest plants across the Eastern United States. Understory forbs and spring ephemerals that fix a disproportionate amount of carbon during early spring may be negatively affected by earlier canopy closure; however, information on the spatial patterns of phenological change for these communities is still lacking. To assess the potential for changes in spring phenological windows, we synthesized observations from the Appalachian Mountain Club's (AMCs) Mountain Watch (MW) project, the National Phenology Network (NPN), and AMC's iNaturalist projects between 2004 and 2022 (n = 118,250) across the length of the Appalachian Trail (AT) Corridor (34° N-46° N latitude). We used hierarchical Bayesian modeling to examine the sensitivity of spring flowering and leaf-out for 11 understory species and 14 canopy tree species to mean spring temperature (April-June). We conducted analyses across the AT Corridor, partitioned by regions of 4° latitude (south, mid-Atlantic, and north). Spring phenologies for both understory plants and canopy trees advanced with warming (~6 and ~3 days/°C, respectively). However, the sensitivity of each group varied by latitude, with the phenology of trees and understory plants advancing to a greater degree in the mid-Atlantic region (~10 days/°C) than in the southern or northern regions (~5 days/°C). While we find evidence that phenological windows remain stable in the southern and mid-Atlantic portions of the AT, we observed an expansion of the spring phenological window in the north where there was greater understory forb temperature sensitivity compared with trees (~2.7 days/°C). Our analyses indicate the differential sensitivity of forest plant phenology to potential warming across a large latitudinal gradient in the Eastern United States. Further, evidence for a temperature-driven expansion of the spring phenological window suggests a potential beneficial effect for understory plants in the northern AT, although phenological mismatch with potential pollinators and increased vulnerability to late winter frosts are possible. Using extensive citizen-science datasets allows us to synthesize regional- and continental-scale data to explore spatial and temporal trends in spring phenology related to warming. Such data can help to standardize approaches in phenological research and its application to forest climate resiliency.

Geographic conditions impact the relationship between plant phenology and phylogeny

Plant phenology is influenced by a combined effect of phylogeny and climate, although it is yet unclear how these two variables work together to change phenology. We synthesized 107 previously published studies to examine whether phenological changes were impacted by both phylogeny and climate changes in various geographical settings globally. Phenological observation data from 52,463 plant species at 71 sites worldwide revealed that 90 % of phenological records showed phylogenetic conservation. i.e., closely related species exhibited similar phenology. To explore the significant and non-significant phylogenetic conservation between plant phenophases, our dataset comprises 5,47,000 observation records from the four main phenophases (leaf bud, leaf, flower, and fruit). Three-dimensional geographical distribution (altitude, latitude, and longitude) data analysis revealed that plant phenology may exhibit phylogenetic signals at finer special scales (optimal environmental conditions) that vanish in high altitude and latitude regions. Additionally, climatic sensitivity analysis suggested that phylogenetic signals were associated with plant phenophases and were stronger in the regions of ideal temperature (7-18 °C) and photoperiod (10-14 h) and weaker in harsh climatic conditions. These results show that phylogenetic conservation in plant phenological traits is frequently influenced by the interaction of harsh climatic conditions and geographical ranges. This meta-analysis enhances our knowledge of predicting species responses over geographic gradients under varied climatic conditions.

Germination response to winter temperature changes with seed shape and length of temperature exposure

In many regions, the climate is changing faster during winter than during the other seasons, and a loss of snow cover combined with increased temperature variability can expose overwintering organisms to harmful conditions. Understanding how species respond to these changes during critical developmental times, such as seed germination, helps us assess the ecological implications of winter climate change. To address this concern, we measured the breaking of seed dormancy and cold tolerance of temperate grassland species in the lab and field. In the lab, we ran germination trials testing the tolerance of 17 species to an extreme cold event. In the field, we deployed seeds of two species within a snow manipulation experiment at three locations and measured germination success biweekly from seeds subjected to ambient and reduced snow cover from winter into spring. From lab trials, cold tolerance varied among species, with seed germination decreasing <10%-100% following extreme cold events. Cold tolerance was related to seed traits, specifically less round seeds, seeds that required cold stratification, and seeds that mature later in the season tended to be more impacted by extreme cold temperatures. This variation in seed cold tolerance may contribute to altered community composition with continued winter climate change. In the field, germination increased through late winter, coinciding with the accumulation of days where temperatures were favorable for cold stratification. Through spring, germination success decreased as warm temperatures accumulated. Collectively, species-specific seed cold tolerances and mortality rates may contribute to compositional changes in grasslands under continued winter climate change.

Snowpack permanence shapes the growth and dynamic of non-structural carbohydrates in Juniperus communis in alpine tundra

Climate warming is altering snowpack permanence in alpine tundra, modifying shrub growth and distribution. Plant acclimation to snowpack changes depends on the capability to guarantee growth and carbon storage, suggesting that the content of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) in plant organs can be a key trait to depict the plant response under different snow regimes. To test this hypothesis, we designed a 3-years long manipulative experiment aimed at evaluating the effect of snow melt timing (i.e., early, control, and late) on NSC content in needles, bark and wood of Juniperus communis L. growing at high elevation in the Alps. Starch evidenced a general decrease from late spring to summer in control and early melting, while starch was low but stable in plants subjected to a late snow melt. Leaves, bark and wood have different level of soluble NSC changing during growing season: in bark, sugars content decreased significantly in late summer, while there was no seasonal effect in needles and wood. Soluble NSC and starch were differently related with the plant growth, when considering different tissues and snow treatment. In leaf and bark we observed a starch depletion in control and early melting plants, consistently to a higher growth (i.e., twig elongation), while in late snow melt, we did not find any significant relationship between growth and NSC concentration. Our findings confirmed that snowpack duration affects the onset of the growing season promoting a change in carbon allocation in plant organs and, between bark and wood in twigs. Finally, our results suggest that plants, at this elevation, could take advantage from an early snow melt caused by climate warming, most likely due to photosynthetic activity by maintaining the level of reserves and enhancing the carbon investment for growth.

The mid-domain effect in flowering phenology

The timing of flowering is an important driver of species distribution and community assembly patterns. However, we still have much to learn about the factors that shape flowering diversity (i.e., number of species flowering per period) in plant communities. One potential explanation of flowering diversity is the mid-domain effect, which states that geometric constraints on species ranges within a bounded domain (space or time) will yield a mid-domain peak in diversity regardless of ecological factors. Here, we determine whether the mid-domain effect explains peak flowering time (i.e., when most species of communities are flowering) across China. We used phenological data of 16,267 herbaceous and woody species from the provincial Flora in China and species distribution data from the Chinese Vascular Plant Distribution Database to determine relationships between the observed number of species flowering and the number of species flowering as predicted by the mid-domain effect model, as well as between three climatic variables (mean minimum monthly temperature, mean monthly precipitation, and mean monthly sunshine duration). We found that the mid-domain effect explained a significant proportion of the temporal variation in flowering diversity across all species in China. Further, the mid-domain effect explained a greater proportion of variance in flowering diversity at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes. The patterns of flowering diversity for both herbaceous and woody species were related to both the mid-domain effect and environmental variables. Our findings indicate that including geometric constraints in conjunction with abiotic and biotic predictors will improve predictions of flowering diversity patterns.

Environmental and Biogeographic Drivers behind Alpine Plant Thermal Tolerance and Genetic Variation

In alpine ecosystems, elevation broadly functions as a steep thermal gradient, with plant communities exposed to regular fluctuations in hot and cold temperatures. These conditions lead to selective filtering, potentially contributing to species-level variation in thermal tolerance and population-level genetic divergence. Few studies have explored the breadth of alpine plant thermal tolerances across a thermal gradient or the underlying genetic variation thereof. We measured photosystem heat (Tcrit-hot) and cold (Tcrit-cold) thresholds of ten Australian alpine species across elevation gradients and characterised their neutral genetic variation. To reveal the biogeographical drivers of present-day genetic signatures, we also reconstructed temporal changes in habitat suitability across potential distributional ranges. We found intraspecific variation in thermal thresholds, but this was not associated with elevation, nor underpinned by genetic differentiation on a local scale. Instead, regional population differentiation and considerable homozygosity within populations may, in part, be driven by distributional contractions, long-term persistence, and migrations following habitat suitability. Our habitat suitability models suggest that cool-climate-distributed alpine plants may be threatened by a warming climate. Yet, the observed wide thermal tolerances did not reflect this vulnerability. Conservation efforts should seek to understand variations in species-level thermal tolerance across alpine microclimates.

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Later-melting rather than thickening of snowpack enhance the productivity and alter the community composition of temperate grassland

Snowpack is closely related to vegetation green-up in water-limited ecosystems, and has effects on growing-season ecosystem processes. However, we know little about how changes in snowpack depth and melting timing affect primary productivity and plant community structure during the growing season. Here, we conducted a four-year snow manipulation experiment exploring how snow addition, snowmelt delay and their combination affect aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), species diversity, community composition and plant reproductive phenology in seasonally snow-covered temperate grassland in northern China. Snow addition alone increased soil moisture and nutrient availability during early spring, while did not change plant community structure and ANPP. Instead, snowmelt delay alone postponed plant reproductive phenology, and increased ANPP, decreased species diversity and altered species composition. Grasses are more sensitive to changes in snowmelt timing than forbs, and early-flowering forbs showed a higher sensitivity compared to late-flowering forbs. The effect of snowmelt delay on ANPP and species diversity was offset by snow addition, probably because the added snow unnecessarily lengthens the snow-covering duration. The disparate effects of changes in snowpack depth and snowmelt timing necessitate their discrimination for more mechanistic understanding on the effects of snowpack changes on ecosystems. Our study suggests that it is essential to incorporate non-growing-season climate change events (in particular, snowfall and snowpack changes) to comprehensively disclose the effects of climate change on community structure and ecosystem functions.

Decadal-scale variability and warming affect spring timing and forest growth across the western Great Lakes region

The Great Lakes region of North America has warmed by 1-2 °C on average since pre-industrial times, with the most pronounced changes observable during winter and spring. Interannual variability in temperatures remains high, however, due to the influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns that modulate the warming trend across years. Variations in spring temperatures determine growing season length and plant phenology, with implications for whole ecosystem function. Studying how both internal climate variability and the "secular" warming trend interact to produce trends in temperature is necessary to estimate potential ecological responses to future warming scenarios. This study examines how external anthropogenic forcing and decadal-scale variability influence spring temperatures across the western Great Lakes region and estimates the sensitivity of regional forests to temperature using long-term growth records from tree-rings and satellite data. Using a modeling approach designed to test for regime shifts in dynamic time series, this work shows that mid-continent spring climatology was strongly influenced by the 1976/1977 phase change in North Pacific atmospheric circulation, and that regional forests show a strengthening response to spring temperatures during the last half-century.

Significant early end of the growing season of forest vegetation inside China's protected areas

The land surface phenology (LSP) indicators (i.e., start, end, and length of the growing season: SOS, EOS, LOS) are important to reflect the growth of forest and its response to environmental changes. However, the spatiotemporal variation and its mechanism of forest phenology under different human disturbance' levels are still unclear. Here, we compare the LSP indicators inside and outside China's 257 protected areas (PAs) and explore the influencing factors of phenological differences (ΔSOS, ΔEOS, ΔLOS). We find that in general, EOS inside PAs (mean ± s.e.m: 312.6 ± 1.2days) is significantly earlier than outside (314.6 ± 1.2days), and LOS inside PAs (218.9 ± 2.0days) are significantly shorter than outside (220.6 ± 2.0days). ΔSOS and ΔEOS are controlled by nighttime and daytime temperature differences, respectively, and both factors affect ΔLOS. This evidence provides a new understanding about the functions of PAs and its influence on forest vegetation growth.

High-resolution data are necessary to understand the effects of climate on plant population dynamics of a forest herb

Climate is assumed to strongly influence species distribution and abundance. Although the performance of many organisms is influenced by the climate in their immediate proximity, the climate data used to model their distributions often have a coarse spatial resolution. This is problematic because the local climate experienced by individuals might deviate substantially from the regional average. This problem is likely to be particularly important for sessile organisms like plants and in environments where small-scale variation in climate is large. To quantify the effect of local temperature on vital rates and population growth rates, we used temperature values measured at the local scale (in situ logger measures) and integral projection models with demographic data from 37 populations of the forest herb Lathyrus vernus across a wide latitudinal gradient in Sweden. To assess how the spatial resolution of temperature data influences assessments of climate effects, we compared effects from models using local data with models using regionally aggregated temperature data at several spatial resolutions (≥1 km). Using local temperature data, we found that spring frost reduced the asymptotic population growth rate in the first of two annual transitions and influenced survival in both transitions. Only one of the four regional estimates showed a similar negative effect of spring frost on population growth rate. Our results for a perennial forest herb show that analyses using regionally aggregated data often fail to identify the effects of climate on population dynamics. This emphasizes the importance of using organism-relevant estimates of climate when examining effects on individual performance and population dynamics, as well as when modeling species distributions. For sessile organisms that experience the environment over small spatial scales, this will require climate data at high spatial resolutions.

Oligosaccharide production and signaling correlate with delayed flowering in an Arabidopsis genotype grown and selected in high [CO2]

Since industrialization began, atmospheric CO2 ([CO2]) has increased from 270 to 415 ppm and is projected to reach 800-1000 ppm this century. Some Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis) genotypes delayed flowering in elevated [CO2] relative to current [CO2], while others showed no change or accelerations. To predict genotype-specific flowering behaviors, we must understand the mechanisms driving flowering response to rising [CO2]. [CO2] changes alter photosynthesis and carbohydrates in plants. Plants sense carbohydrate levels, and exogenous carbohydrate application influences flowering time and flowering transcript levels. We asked how organismal changes in carbohydrates and transcription correlate with changes in flowering time under elevated [CO2]. We used a genotype (SG) of Arabidopsis that was selected for high fitness at elevated [CO2] (700 ppm). SG delays flowering under elevated [CO2] (700 ppm) relative to current [CO2] (400 ppm). We compared SG to a closely related control genotype (CG) that shows no [CO2]-induced flowering change. We compared metabolomic and transcriptomic profiles in these genotypes at current and elevated [CO2] to assess correlations with flowering in these conditions. While both genotypes altered carbohydrates in response to elevated [CO2], SG had higher levels of sucrose than CG and showed a stronger increase in glucose and fructose in elevated [CO2]. Both genotypes demonstrated transcriptional changes, with CG increasing genes related to fructose 1,6-bisphosphate breakdown, amino acid synthesis, and secondary metabolites; and SG decreasing genes related to starch and sugar metabolism, but increasing genes involved in oligosaccharide production and sugar modifications. Genes associated with flowering regulation within the photoperiod, vernalization, and meristem identity pathways were altered in these genotypes. Elevated [CO2] may alter carbohydrates to influence transcription in both genotypes and delayed flowering in SG. Changes in the oligosaccharide pool may contribute to delayed flowering in SG. This work extends the literature exploring genotypic-specific flowering responses to elevated [CO2].

Sex-dependent phenological responses to climate vary across species' ranges

Anthropogenic climate change has significantly altered the flowering times (i.e., phenology) of plants worldwide, affecting their reproduction, survival, and interactions. Recent studies utilizing herbarium specimens have uncovered significant intra- and inter-specific variation in flowering phenology and its response to changes in climate but have mostly been limited to animal-pollinated species. Thus, despite their economic and ecological importance, variation in phenological responses to climate remain largely unexplored among and within wind-pollinated dioecious species and across their sexes. Using both herbarium specimens and volunteer observations of cottonwood (Populus) species, we examined how phenological sensitivity to climate varies across species, their ranges, sexes, and phenophases. The timing of flowering varied significantly across and within species, as did their sensitivity to spring temperature. In particular, male flowering generally happened earlier in the season and was more sensitive to warming than female flowering. Further, the onset of flowering was more sensitive to changes in temperature than leaf out. Increased temporal gaps between male and female flowering time and between the first open flower date and leaf out date were predicted for the future under two climate change scenarios. These shifts will impact the efficacy of sexual reproduction and gene flow among species. Our study demonstrates significant inter- and intra-specific variation in phenology and its responses to environmental cues, across species' ranges, phenophases, and sex, in wind-pollinated species. These variations need to be considered to predict accurately the effects of climate change and assess their ecological and evolutionary consequences.

Increase in heat tolerance following a period of heat stress in a naturally occurring insect species

Climate warming is the defining environmental crisis of the 21st century. Elucidating whether organisms can adapt to rapidly changing thermal environments is therefore a crucial research priority. We investigated warming effects on a native Hemipteran insect (Murgantia histrionica) that feeds on an endemic plant species (Isomeris arborea) of the California coastal sage scrub. Experiments conducted in 2009 quantified the temperature responses of juvenile maturation rates and stage-specific and cumulative survivorship. The intervening decade has seen some of the hottest years ever recorded, with increasing mean temperatures accompanied by an increase in the frequency of hot extremes. Experiments repeated in 2021 show a striking change in the bugs' temperature responses. In 2009, no eggs developed past the second nymphal stage at 33°C. In 2021, eggs developed into reproductive adults at 33°C. Upper thermal limits for maturation and survivorship have increased, along with a decrease in mortality risk with increasing age and temperature, and a decrease in the temperature sensitivity of mortality with increasing age. While we cannot exclude the possibility that other environmental factors occurring in concert could have affected our findings, the fact that all observed trait changes are in the direction of greater heat tolerance suggests that consistent exposure to extreme heat stress may at least be partially responsible for these changes. Harlequin bugs belong to the suborder Heteroptera, which contains a number of economically important pests, biological control agents and disease carriers. Their differential success in withstanding warming compared to beneficial holometabolous insects such as pollinators may exacerbate the decline of beneficial insects due to other causes (e.g. pollution and pesticides) with potentially serious consequences on both biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

Maladaptive plastic responses of flowering time to geothermal heating

Phenotypic plasticity might increase fitness if the conditions under which it evolved remain unaltered, but becomes maladaptive if the environment no longer provides reliable cues for subsequent conditions. In seasonal environments, timing of reproduction can respond plastically to spring temperature, maximizing the benefits of a long season while minimizing the exposure to unfavorable cold temperatures. However, if the relationship between early spring temperatures and later conditions changes, the optimal response might change. In geothermally heated ecosystems, the plastic response of flowering time to springtime soil temperature that has evolved in unheated areas is likely to be non-optimal, because soil temperatures are higher and decoupled from air temperatures in heated areas. We therefore expect natural selection to favor a lower plasticity and a delayed flowering in these areas. Using observational data along a natural geothermal warming gradient, we tested the hypothesis that selection on flowering time depends on soil temperature and favors later flowering on warmer soils in the perennial Cerastium fontanum. In both study years, plants growing in warmer soils began flowering earlier than plants growing in colder soils, suggesting that first flowering date (FFD) responds plastically to soil temperature. In one of the two study years, selection favored earlier flowering in colder soils but later flowering in warmer soils, suggesting that the current level of plastic advance of FFD on warmer soils may be maladaptive in some years. Our results illustrate the advantages of using natural experiments, such as geothermal ecosystems, to examine selection in environments that recently have undergone major changes. Such knowledge is essential to understand and predict both ecological and evolutionary responses to climate warming.

Spring temperature drives phenotypic selection on plasticity of flowering time

In seasonal environments, a high responsiveness of development to increasing temperatures in spring can infer benefits in terms of a longer growing season, but also costs in terms of an increased risk of facing unfavourable weather conditions. Still, we know little about how climatic conditions influence the optimal plastic response. Using 22 years of field observations for the perennial forest herb Lathyrus vernus, we assessed phenotypic selection on among-individual variation in reaction norms of flowering time to spring temperature, and examined if among-year variation in selection on plasticity was associated with spring temperature conditions. We found significant among-individual variation in mean flowering time and flowering time plasticity, and that plants that flowered earlier also had a more plastic flowering time. Selection favoured individuals with an earlier mean flowering time and a lower thermal plasticity of flowering time. Less plastic individuals were more strongly favoured in colder springs, indicating that spring temperature influenced optimal flowering time plasticity. Our results show how selection on plasticity can be linked to climatic conditions, and illustrate how we can understand and predict evolutionary responses of organisms to changing environmental conditions.

Complex climate-mediated effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology and frost risk

Urbanization can affect the timing of plant reproduction (i.e. flowering and fruiting) and associated ecosystem processes. However, our knowledge of how plant phenology responds to urbanization and its associated environmental changes is limited. Herbaria represent an important, but underutilized source of data for investigating this question. We harnessed phenological data from herbarium specimens representing 200 plant species collected across 120 yr from the eastern US to investigate the spatiotemporal effects of urbanization on flowering and fruiting phenology and frost risk (i.e. time between the last frost date and flowering). Effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology varied significantly in direction and magnitude across species ranges. Increased urbanization led to earlier flowering in colder and wetter regions and delayed fruiting in regions with wetter spring conditions. Frost risk was elevated with increased urbanization in regions with colder and wetter spring conditions. Our study demonstrates that predictions of phenological change and its associated impacts must account for both climatic and human effects, which are context dependent and do not necessarily coincide. We must move beyond phenological models that only incorporate temperature variables and consider multiple environmental factors and their interactions when estimating plant phenology, especially at larger spatial and taxonomic scales.

Shifts in flowering phenology in response to spring temperatures in eastern Tennessee

PREMISE

Plant phenological shifts are among the clearest indicators of the effects of climate change. In North America, numerous studies in the northeastern United States have demonstrated earlier spring flowering compared to historical records. However, few studies have examined phenological shifts in the southeastern United States, a highly biodiverse region of North America characterized by dramatic variations in abiotic conditions over small geographic areas.

METHODS

We examined 1000+ digitized herbarium records along with location-specific temperature data to analyze phenological shifts of 14 spring-flowering species in two adjacent ecoregions in eastern Tennessee.

RESULTS

Spring-flowering plant communities in the Blue Ridge and the Ridge and Valley ecoregions differed in their sensitivity to temperature; plants in the Ridge and Valley flower 0.73 days earlier/°C on average compared to 1.09 days/°C for plants in the Blue Ridge. Additionally, for the majority of species in both ecoregions, flowering is sensitive to spring temperature; i.e., in warmer years, most species flowered earlier. Despite this sensitivity, we did not find support for community-level shifts in flowering within eastern Tennessee in recent decades, likely because increases in annual temperature in the southeast are driven primarily by warming summer (rather than spring) temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the importance of including ecoregion as a predictor in phenological models for capturing variation in sensitivity among populations and suggest that even small shifts in temperature can have dramatic effects on phenology in response to climate in the southeastern United States.

Diverging trends and drivers of Arctic flower production in Greenland over space and time

The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate. While changes in plant community composition and phenology have been extensively reported, the effects of climate change on reproduction remain poorly understood. We quantified multidecadal changes in flower density for nine tundra plant species at a low- and a high-Arctic site in Greenland. We found substantial changes in flower density over time, but the temporal trends and drivers of flower density differed both between species and sites. Total flower density increased over time at the low-Arctic site, whereas the high-Arctic site showed no directional change. Within and between sites, the direction and rate of change differed among species, with varying effects of summer temperature, the temperature of the previous autumn and the timing of snowmelt. Finally, all species showed a strong trade-off in flower densities between successive years, suggesting an effective cost of reproduction. Overall, our results reveal region- and taxon-specific variation in the sensitivity and responses of co-occurring species to shared climatic drivers, and a clear cost of reproductive investment among Arctic plants. The ultimate effects of further changes in climate may thus be decoupled between species and across space, with critical knock-on effects on plant species dynamics, food web structure and overall ecosystem functioning.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00300-023-03164-2.

Climate change is leading to rapid shifts in seasonality in the himalaya

Climate change has significantly impacted vegetation phenology across the globe with vegetation experiencing an advance in the spring green-up phases and a delay in fall senescence. However, some studies from high latitudes and high elevations have instead shown delayed spring phenology, owing to a lack of chilling fulfillment and altered snow cover and photoperiods. Here we use the MODIS satellite-derived view-angle corrected surface reflectance data (MCD43A4) to document the four phenological phases in the high elevations of the Sikkim Himalaya and compared the phenological trends between below-treeline zones and above-treeline zones. This analysis of remotely sensed data for the study period (2001-2017) reveals considerable shifts in the phenology of the Sikkim Himalaya. Advances in the spring start of the season phase (SOS) were more pronounced than delays in the dates for maturity (MAT), senescence (EOS), and advanced dormancy (DOR). The SOS significantly advanced by 21.3 days while the MAT and EOS were delayed by 15.7 days and 6.5 days respectively over the 17-year study period. The DOR showed an advance of 8.2 days over the study period. The region below the treeline showed more pronounced shifts in phenology with respect to an advanced SOS and a delayed EOS and DOR that above treeline. The MAT, however, showed a greater delay in the zone above the treeline than below. Lastly, unlike other studies from high elevations, there is no indication that winter chilling requirements are driving the spring phenology in this region. We discuss four possible explanations for why vegetation phenology in the high elevations of the Eastern Himalaya may exhibit trends independent of chilling requirements and soil moisture due to mediation by snow cover.

Biogeography, climate, and land use create a mosaic of parasite risk in native bumble bees

Host-parasite interactions are crucial to the regulation of host population growth, as they often impact both long-term population stability and ecological functioning. Animal hosts navigate a number of environmental conditions, including local climate, anthropogenic land use, and varying degrees of spatial isolation, all of which can mediate parasitism exposure. Despite this, we know little about the potential for these environmental conditions to impact pathogen prevalence at biogeographic scales, especially for key ecosystem service-providing animals. Bees are essential pollination providers that may be particularly sensitive to biogeography, climate, and land-use as these factors are known to limit bee dispersal and contribute to underlying population genetic variation, which may also impact host-parasite interactions. Importantly, many native bumble bee species have recently shown geographic range contractions, reduced genetic diversity, and increased parasitism rates, highlighting the potential importance of interacting and synergistic stressors. In this study, we incorporate spatially explicit environmental, biogeographic, and land-use data in combination with genetically derived host population data to conduct a large-scale epidemiological assessment of the drivers of pathogen prevalence across >1000 km for a keystone western US pollinator, the bumble bee Bombus vosnesenskii. We found high rates of infection from Crithidia bombi and C. expoekii, which show strong spatial autocorrelation and which were more prevalent in northern latitudes. We also show that land use barriers best explained differences in parasite prevalence and parasite community composition, while precipitation, elevation, and B. vosnesenskii nesting density were important drivers of parasite prevalence. Overall, our results demonstrate that human land use can impact critical host-parasite interactions for native bees at massive spatial scales. Further, our work indicates that disease-related survey and conservation measures should take into account the independent and interacting influences of climate, biogeography, land use, and local population dynamics.

Environmental Drivers of Amphibian Breeding Phenology across Multiple Sites

A mechanistic understanding of phenology, the seasonal timing of life history events, is important for understanding species’ interactions and the potential responses of ecological communities to a rapidly changing climate. We present analysis of a seven-year dataset on the breeding phenology of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica), tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum), blue-spotted salamanders (Ambystoma laterale), and associated unisexual Ambystoma salamanders from six wetlands in Southeast Michigan, USA. We assess whether the ordinal date of breeding migrations varies among species, sexes, and individual wetlands, and we describe the specific environmental conditions associated with breeding migrations for each species/sex. Breeding date was significantly affected by species/sex identity, year, wetland, and the interactions between species/sex and year as well as wetland and year. There was a great deal of variation among years, with breeding occurring nearly synchronously among groups in some years but widely spaced between groups in other years. Specific environmental triggers for movement varied for each species and sex and changed as the breeding season progressed. In general, salamanders responded to longer temperature lags (more warmer days in a row) than wood frogs, whereas wood frogs required longer precipitation lags (more rainy days in a row) than salamanders. Wood frogs were more likely to migrate around the time of a new moon, whereas in contrast, Ambystoma salamander migration was not associated with a moon phase. Ordinal day was an important factor in all models, suggesting that these amphibians require a latency period or similar mechanism to avoid breeding too early in the year, even when weather conditions appear favorable. Male wood frogs migrated earlier than female wood frogs, and male blue-spotted salamanders migrated earlier than female A. laterale and associated unisexual females. Larger unisexual salamanders migrated earlier than smaller individuals. Differences in species’ responses to environmental cues led to wood frogs and A. laterale breeding later than tiger salamanders in colder years but not in warmer years. This suggests that, as the climate warms, wood frog and A. laterale larvae may experience less predation from tiger salamander larvae due to reduced size differences when they breed simultaneously. Our study is one of few to describe the proximate drivers of amphibian breeding migrations across multiple species, wetlands, and years, and it can inform models predicting how climate change may shift ecological interactions among pond-breeding amphibian species.

Simulated climate warming decreases fruit number but increases seed mass

Climate warming is changing plant sexual reproduction, having consequences for species distribution and community dynamics. However, the magnitude and direction of plant reproductive efforts (e.g., number of flowers) and success (e.g., number and mass of fruits or seeds) in response to warming have not been well-characterized. Here, we generated a global dataset of simulated warming experiments, consisting of 477 pairwise comparisons for 164 terrestrial species. We found evidence that warming overall decreased fruit number and increased seed mass, but little evidence that warming influenced flower number, fruit mass, or seed number. The warming effects on seed mass were regulated by the pollination type, and insect-pollinated plants exhibited a stronger response to warming than wind-pollinated plants. We found strong evidence that warming increased the mass of seeds for the nondominant species but no evidence of this for the dominant species. There was no evidence that phylogenetic relatedness explained the effects of warming on plant reproductive effort and success. In addition, the effects of warming on flowering onset negatively related to the responses in terms of the number of fruits and seeds to warming, revealing a cascading effect of plant reproductive development. These findings provide the first quantification of the response of terrestrial plant sexual reproduction to warming and suggest that plants may increase their fitness by producing heavier seeds under a warming climate.

Genotype accounts for intraspecific variation in the timing and duration of multiple, sequential life-cycle events in a willow species

PREMISE

Phenological variation among individuals within populations is common and has a variety of ecological and evolutionary consequences, including forming the basis for population-level responses to environmental change. Although the timing of life-cycle events has genetic underpinnings, whether intraspecific variation in the duration of life-cycle events reflects genetic differences among individuals is poorly understood.

METHODS

We used a common garden experiment with 10 genotypes of Salix hookeriana (coastal willow) from northern California, United States to investigate the extent to which genetic variation explains intraspecific variation in the timing and duration of multiple, sequential life-cycle events: flowering, leaf budbreak, leaf expansion, fruiting, and fall leaf coloration. We used seven clones of each genotype, for a total of 70 individual trees.

RESULTS

Genotype affected each sequential life-cycle event independently and explained on average 62% of the variation in the timing and duration of vegetative and reproductive life-cycle events. All events were significantly heritable. A single genotype tended to be "early" or "late" across life-cycle events, but for event durations, there was no consistent response within genotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

This research demonstrates that genetic variation can be a major component underlying intraspecific variation in the timing and duration of life-cycle events. It is often assumed that the environment affects durations, but we show that genetic factors also play a role. Because the timing and duration of events are independent of one another, our results suggest that the effects of environmental change on one event will not necessarily cascade to subsequent events.

Current and lagged climate affects phenology across diverse taxonomic groups

The timing of life events (phenology) can be influenced by climate. Studies from around the world tell us that climate cues and species' responses can vary greatly. If variation in climate effects on phenology is strong within a single ecosystem, climate change could lead to ecological disruption, but detailed data from diverse taxa within a single ecosystem are rare. We collated first sighting and median activity within a high-elevation environment for plants, insects, birds, mammals and an amphibian across 45 years (1975-2020). We related 10 812 phenological events to climate data to determine the relative importance of climate effects on species' phenologies. We demonstrate significant variation in climate-phenology linkage across taxa in a single ecosystem. Both current and prior climate predicted changes in phenology. Taxa responded to some cues similarly, such as snowmelt date and spring temperatures; other cues affected phenology differently. For example, prior summer precipitation had no effect on most plants, delayed first activity of some insects, but advanced activity of the amphibian, some mammals, and birds. Comparing phenological responses of taxa at a single location, we find that important cues often differ among taxa, suggesting that changes to climate may disrupt synchrony of timing among taxa.

Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability

Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.

Skewness in bee and flower phenological distributions

Phenological distributions are characterized by their central tendency, breadth, and shape, and all three determine the extent to which interacting species overlap in time. Pollination mutualisms rely on temporal co-occurrence of pollinators and their floral resources, and although much work has been done to characterize the shapes of flower phenological distributions, similar studies that include pollinators are lacking. Here, we provide the first broad assessment of skewness, a component of distribution shape, for a bee community. We compare skewness in bees to that in flowers, relate bee and flower skewness to other properties of their phenology, and quantify the potential consequences of differences in skewness between bees and flowers. Both bee and flower phenologies tend to be right-skewed, with a more exaggerated asymmetry in bees. Early-season species tend to be the most skewed, and this relationship is also stronger in bees than in flowers. Based on a simulation experiment, differences in bee and flower skewness could account for up to 14% of pairwise overlap differences. Given the potential for interaction loss, we argue that difference in skewness of interacting species is an underappreciated property of phenological change.