Understanding the rebound of influenza in the post COVID-19 pandemic period holds important clues for epidemiology and control

Did COVID-19 surveillance system sensitivity change after Omicron? a retrospective observational study in England

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic in England, increases and falls in COVID-19 cases were monitored using many surveillance systems (SS). However, surveillance sensitivity may have changed as different variants were introduced to the population, due to greater disease-resistance after comprehensive vaccination programmes and widespread natural infection or for other reasons.

METHODS

Time series data from ten epidemic trackers in England that were available Sept 2021-June 2022 were compared to each other using Spearman correlation statistics. Least biased and most timely SS in England were identified as 'best' standard epidemic trackers, while other COVID-19 tracking datasets we denote as complementary trackers. We compared the best standard trackers with each other and with the complementary trackers. Correlation calculations with 95% confidence intervals were made between complementary and best standard epidemic trackers. We tested the hypothesis that correlation with the best trackers was especially poor during transition periods when Delta, Omicron BA.1 and Omicron BA.2 sublineages were each dominant. Daily ascertainment percentages of incident cases that each SS detected during each variant's dominance were calculated. We tested for statistically significant (at p < 0.05) differences in the distribution of the ascertainment values during each COVID-19 variant's dominance, using Welch's oneway ANOVA.

RESULTS

Spearman rho correlation was significantly positive between most complementary and the best trackers over the whole period. There was no apparent visual indication that correlations were especially poor during transition period from Delta to BA.1. There were falls in correlation in the transition period from BA.1 to BA.2 but these falls were relatively small compared to correlation fluctuations over the full period. Ascertainment was highest in the Delta period for complementary systems against the least biased tracker of incidence. Ascertainment was statistically different between the three variant-dominant periods.

CONCLUSIONS

From September 2021 to June 2022, complementary SS generally reflected case rises and falls. Ascertainment was highest in the Delta-dominant period but no complementary tracker was highly stable. Factors other than which variant was dominant seem likely to have affected how well each tracker reflected true case rises and falls.

Post-pandemic excess mortality of COVID-19 in Hong Kong: a retrospective study

Background

As the COVID-19 pandemic shifted into the post-pandemic period in early 2023, following the COVID-19 normalization with relaxation of stringent control measures and high vaccination coverage in Hong Kong, its long-term impact on mortality remains challenging with necessary needs of data-driven insights. This study examined the pattern of post-pandemic excess mortality in Hong Kong.

Methods

We analyzed weekly inpatient death data from public hospitals from January 1, 2013, to June 1, 2024, using a mixed model with over-dispersed Poisson regression. Expected mortality was estimated as the difference between observed mortality and baseline derived from pre-pandemic data. Age-stratified analyses of overall and cause-specific mortality were conducted across the pre-Omicron pandemic, Omicron, and post-pandemic periods.

Findings

In the post-pandemic period, the excess mortality declined but remained six-fold higher (37.66 [95% CI: 32.72-42.60] per 100,000) than pre-Omicron level, maintaining significance after adjusting for age (32.79 [95% CI: 28.13-37.46] per 100,000). The older population experienced sustained excess mortality, with crude estimates of 100.51 and 586.74 per 100,000 among those aged 65-79 years and ≥80 years, respectively, primarily due to respiratory diseases. Younger population showed near-zero overall excess mortality, whereas increased excess mortality among them occurred in heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and injuries.

Interpretation

Our findings highlight the lasting mortality impact of pandemic among vulnerable populations, specifically the older population, possibly due to the post-COVID conditions and circulating COVID-19, suggesting the need for targeted interventions for this group.

Funding

Health and Medical Research Fund.

Trend of influenza before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nepal-A study from 2018 to 2022

A significant reduction in influenza incidence during the early days of COVID-19 pandemic was reported worldwide. This study aims to understand the impact of public health and social measures implemented during the COVID- 19 pandemic on influenza circulation in Nepal. We utilized influenza sentinel and non-sentinel surveillance data from Nepal between 2018 and 2022, obtained from the National Influenza Centre (NIC) at National Public Health Laboratory (NPHL), Nepal. Additionally, we used publicly available national COVID-19 case data released by the Ministry of Health and Population of Nepal. The data were analyzed for the trends in influenza cases, positivity rate and the distribution of subtypes/lineages. Furthermore, we compared the trend of influenza with that of COVID-19 and the social and public health measures implemented in the country as part of the COVID-19 response. The average influenza positivity rate dropped significantly from 39% to 14% during the COVID-19 period compared to the pre- COVID-19. Additionally, during the time of COVID 19 there has been a shift in the influenza bimodal seasonal pattern, with only one peak observed. Influenza type A consistently dominated, with variations in its subtype observed from year to year. Notably, one case of Influenza A/H5N1 was reported in 2019. This study shows that the influenza positivity rate decreased substantially after the COVID-19 pandemic began, possibly due to the stringent public health and social measures implemented during the pandemic. Adaptation of the influenza surveillance system during pandemics and integration of other respiratory pathogens into it not only allows continuity of surveillance but also helps to evaluate the public health and social measures implemented to manage future respiratory virus pandemics.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of pathogen immune-escape: deriving a population-level phylodynamic curve

The phylodynamic curve (Grenfell et al. 2004 Science 303, 327-332 (doi:10.1126/science.1090727)) conceptualizes how immunity shapes the rate of viral adaptation in a non-monotonic fashion, through its opposing effects on viral abundance and the strength of selection. However, concrete and quantitative model realizations of this influential concept are rare. Here, we present an analytic, stochastic framework in which a population-scale phylodynamic curve emerges dynamically, allowing us to address questions regarding the risk and timing of the emergence of viral immune escape variants. We explore how pathogen- and population-specific parameters such as strength of immunity, transmissibility, seasonality and antigenic constraints affect the emergence risk. For pathogens exhibiting pronounced seasonality, we find that the timing of likely immune-escape variant emergence depends on the level of case importation between regions. Motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, we probe the likely effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and the lifting thereof, on the risk of viral escape variant emergence. Looking ahead, the framework has the potential to become a useful tool for probing how natural immunity, as well as choices in vaccine design and distribution and the implementation of NPIs, affect the evolution of common viral pathogens.

Post-pandemic epidemiological trends of respiratory infectious diseases in Taiwan: A retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

This study analyzed the epidemiological trends of three significant respiratory infectious diseases in Taiwan: invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), influenza with severe complications, and tuberculosis during post-COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

We utilized data from Taiwan's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website and classified the COVID-19 prevention policies into three phases for the year 2021, 2022, and 2023. We then performed a statistical analysis of reported case numbers for the three respiratory diseases during the 3-year period using the Kruskal-Wallis test, followed by joinpoint regression model for the identification of seasonal distribution and variation.

RESULTS

An annual increase was observed in cases of IPD and influenza with severe complication, with influenza exhibiting a significant surge in 2023 (p < 0.001). IPD showed a non-significant upward trend (p = 0.111), while tuberculosis cases decreased annually (p = 0.114) with the gradual slowdown in the incidence rate reduction. Also, seasonal analysis revealed that IPD peaked in winter and spring, while influenza with severe complication peaked anomalously in the summer of 2023, suggestive of a prominent summer influenza. Finally, imported cases of influenza with severe complication, primarily from East and Southeast Asia, were noted only in 2023.

CONCLUSIONS

The relaxation of COVID-19 preventive measures in Taiwan led to a marked resurgence of respiratory infectious diseases, particularly influenza with severe complication, accompanied by anomalous seasonality in 2023. This study highlights the need for continued vigilance and appropriate public health strategies, including vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions, to manage respiratory infectious diseases in the post-pandemic era.

Outcomes and Risk Factors for Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infections and Mortality in Patients With Lymphoma or Multiple Myeloma: A 7-Year Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Respiratory viral infection (RVI) is a significant complication in patients with hematologic malignancies. While risk factors of lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) and mortality have been studied in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant recipients, data remain limited for patients with lymphoma and multiple myeloma (MM). We investigated outcomes and risk factors of LRI and mortality secondary to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) or influenza virus (IFV) infections in these populations.

Methods

We performed a retrospective study in adults with lymphoma or MM with RSV or IFV RVIs between 2016 and 2022. Primary outcomes were LRI and all-cause 30- and 90-day mortality.

Results

We analyzed 440 patients with 490 consecutive viral episodes: 297 (61%) with MM and 193 (39%) with lymphoma, 258 (52%) were IFV-related, and 234 (48%) RSV-related (2 coinfections). At presentation, 62% were diagnosed with upper respiratory tract infection (URI) and 38% with LRI. During follow-up, 57% were hospitalized, 8% required intensive care unit transfer, and 20 (4%) died within 30 days. On multivariable analysis, RSV infection (vs IFV), current/former smoking, steroid exposure, lymphopenia (≤200 cells/mL), and high serum creatinine were associated with LRI. MM (vs lymphoma) diagnosis, current/former smoking, lymphopenia, and nosocomial infection were associated with 30-day mortality, whereas LRI (vs URI), current/former smoking, and lymphopenia were associated with 90-day mortality.

Conclusions

We described a high burden of IFV and RSV infections in patients with lymphoma and MM and found risk factors associated with LRI and mortality. These factors could potentially identify high-risk patients, enabling better and prompt management strategies.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Clinical and Epidemiological Profile of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection in Bahia, Brazil: A Comparative Analysis of Pre- and Post-Pandemic Trends

In recent years, the incidence of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) has increased due to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. However, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic extends beyond mortality rates. Recent analyses suggest that the introduction and spread of SARS-CoV-2 have significantly affected the epidemiology of other key respiratory viruses, such as influenza virus (FLUV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and rhinovirus (RV). These changes raise new questions about the dynamics and incidence of post-COVID-19 respiratory infections, as well as potential alterations in symptom profiles and clinical outcomes. In this study, we analyzed data from the Epidemiological Surveillance Information System of Respiratory Viral Agents (SIVEP-Gripe), established by the Brazilian Ministry of Health, to examine the profile of SARI before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. Our data reveal a distinct epidemiological pattern, with a significant decrease in FLUV notifications during the pandemic, accompanied by peaks in RSV and RV cases in late 2020. Additionally, there was a shift in the age distribution of RSV and other viral infections, with individuals infected during the pandemic being older than those infected before the pandemic. Interestingly, the introduction and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Bahia State resulted in a reduction in the frequency of symptoms associated with non-SARS-CoV-2 SARI, without altering clinical outcomes. Our findings suggest that the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 has contributed to a clinical and epidemiological shift, particularly for FLUV, RSV, and other viruses, marked by a reduction in symptoms such as fever, dyspnea, respiratory distress, and the need for ventilatory support. The underlying mechanisms driving these changes remain unclear. These insights are crucial for public health authorities and policymakers to refine surveillance strategies and enhance control measures for respiratory viruses, particularly those causing SARI.

Respiratory Viruses in Patients With Hematological Malignancy in Boreal Autumn/Winter 2023-2024: EPICOVIDEHA-EPIFLUEHA Report

Community-acquired respiratory viral infections (CARV) significantly impact patients with hematological malignancies (HM), leading to high morbidity and mortality. However, large-scale, real-world data on CARV in these patients is limited. This study analyzed data from the EPICOVIDEHA-EPIFLUEHA registry, focusing on patients with HM diagnosed with CARV during the 2023-2024 autumn-winter season. The study assessed epidemiology, clinical characteristics, risk factors, and outcomes. The study examined 1312 patients with HM diagnosed with CARV during the 2023-2024 autumn-winter season. Of these, 59.5% required hospitalization, with 13.5% needing ICU admission. The overall mortality rate was 10.6%, varying by virus: parainfluenza (21.3%), influenza (8.8%), metapneumovirus (7.1%), RSV (5.9%), or SARS-CoV-2 (5.0%). Poor outcomes were significantly associated with smoking history, severe lymphopenia, secondary bacterial infections, and ICU admission. This study highlights the severe risk CARV poses to patients with HM, especially those undergoing active treatment. The high rates of hospitalization and mortality stress the need for better prevention, early diagnosis, and targeted therapies. Given the severe outcomes with certain viruses like parainfluenza, tailored strategies are crucial to improving patient outcomes in future CARV seasons.

Bactericidal and virucidal action of cetylpyridinium chloride and benzocaine lozenges against common oropharyngeal pathogens

Aim

Too often, antibiotics are prescribed in the treatment of pharyngitis, which can contribute to antimicrobial resistance. We aimed to assess the in vitro antiviral and antimicrobial activity of sugar-free cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC)/benzocaine lozenges, which can potentially offer a more suitable treatment for pharyngitis.

Methods

The antiviral activity of sugar-free CPC/benzocaine (1.4 mg/10 mg) lozenges (Dolo-Dobendan 1.4 mg/10 mg lozenges) was assessed using the DIN EN 14476:2019-10 suspension test against bovine coronavirus (S379 Reims) or influenza virus A (H1N1/Brisbane/59/2007) under clean and dirty conditions. Viral titers were measured after 1, 5, 10, and 30 min exposure; a reduction of ≥4 lg was considered virucidal. For bovine coronavirus, large volume plating was used due to cytotoxicity. Antimicrobial activity was measured against 11 microorganisms associated with pharyngitis, with contact times of 1, 5, and 10 min (+30 min for positive control).

Results

For influenza, sugar-free lozenges showed ≥4 lg efficacy from 5 and 10 min exposure under clean and dirty conditions, respectively. For bovine coronavirus, sugar-free lozenges exhibited ≥4 lg efficacy at 10 min under both conditions. Bactericidal activity was observed against nine of the challenge microorganisms within 5 min, with plate counts of <10 colony-forming units (CFU)/mL for Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, Arcanobacterium haemolyticum, Moraxella catarrhalis, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Prevotelia intermedia, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, and Streptococcus pyogenes, and <100 CFU/mL for Streptococcus pneumoniae. Candida albicans and Escherichia coli showed counts of <10 CFU/mL at 30 min.

Conclusions

Sugar-free CPC/benzocaine lozenges can be recommended for uncomplicated pharyngitis and may be more appropriate than antibiotics, helping to mitigate antimicrobial resistance.

Respiratory pathogen spectrum and epidemiological trends in Hainan Province: a retrospective analysis from 2017 to 2023

BACKGROUND

Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) pose a significant global health burden, caused by various pathogens. The COVID-19 pandemic and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have created unprecedented challenges for public health systems, inadvertently altering the dynamics of other respiratory pathogens. This study aims to illustrate changes in the pathogen spectrum among RTI patients in Hainan Province before and during the pandemic.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted to demonstrated the epidemiology characteristics of respiratory pathogens across pre-COVID-19, NPI and COVID-19 pandemic in Hainan from 2017 to 2023. A total of 21,036 patients with RTI of all age groups were enrolled and tested for nine common pathogens: influenza A virus (Flu-A), influenza B virus (Flu-B), parainfluenza virus (PIV), Adenovirus (AAV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Q fever Rickettsiae (Q Fever), Legionella pneumophila (L. pne), Chlamydia pneumoniae (C. pne), and Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pne).

RESULTS

During 2017-2023, the number of RTI patients and pathogen detection rate was gradually decrease from 33.30% (3,886/11,670; pre-COVID-19), to 30.81% (2,034/6,602; NPI) and 22.43% (620/2,764; COVID-19). M. pne (25.52%), Flu-B (3.9%), and PIV (3.12%) were identified as the most prevalent pathogens across three periods. However, the infection rate for M. pne was significantly decrease, and the infection rate for Flu-B and Flu-A were a notable increased in NPI and COVID-19 pandemic. Children aged 0-5 years account for the largest proportion of all RTI patients with the highest infection rate, especially in NPI and COVID-19 pandemic. Flu-A, Flu-B, and RSV exhibited spring-specific seasonal prevalence during NPI and COVID-19 pandemic. Co-infection pattern analysis showed that "M. pne-dominant viruses" co-infection type was prevalent across all three time periods.

CONCLUSION

M. pne, Flu-B, Flu-A, and PIV were found to be the main causative pathogens of RTI patients in Hainan Province, and their prevalence levels and seasonal patterns had changed during large-scale NPI and COVID-19 pandemic.

RTP4 restricts influenza A virus infection by targeting the viral NS1 protein

The influenza A virus evades the host innate immune response to establish infection by inhibiting RIG-I activation through its nonstructural protein 1 (NS1). Here, we reported that receptor-transporting protein 4 (RTP4), an interferon-stimulated gene (ISG), targets NS1 to inhibit influenza A virus infection. Depletion of RTP4 significantly increased influenza A virus multiplication, while NS1-deficient viruses were unaffected. Mechanistically, RTP4 interacts with NS1 in an RNA-dependent manner and sequesters it from the TRIM25-RIG-I complex, thereby restoring TRIM25-mediated RIG-I K63-linked ubiquitination and subsequent activation of IRF3. Antiviral activity of RTP4 requires the evolutionarily conserved CXXC motifs and an H149 residue in the zinc finger domain, mutations of which disrupted RTP4-NS1 interaction and abrogated the ability of RTP4 to rescue RIG-I-mediated signaling. Collectively, our findings provided insights into the mechanism by which an ISG restricts influenza A virus replication by reactivating host antiviral signaling.

Key Insights into Respiratory Virus Testing: Sensitivity and Clinical Implications

Acute respiratory infections are a significant challenge in primary care and hospital settings. Viruses are the most common etiology and the overlapping symptomatology among major respiratory viruses, such as influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and respiratory syncytial virus, requires the use of diagnostic tests that deliver early and accurate results. With the increasing availability of rapid antigen tests (RATS), it is tempting to prefer them over polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. However, compelling arguments support the existing recommendations in some European countries to maintain PCR testing for patient management throughout the year. RATs show sensitivities below 30% with lower viral loads, which are common and can have significant clinical implications. RATs perform well at lower cycle threshold (Ct) values, with sensitivity reaching 97.9% for Ct values below 20, which drops significantly for values above 25. Factors affecting viral load include disease stage, vaccination status, and viral variants, all of which can compromise the accuracy of antigen tests. Multi-target PCR tests effectively overcome these issues, ensuring reliable diagnosis. Additionally, the early detection of paucisymptomatic cases is essential in primary care and hospital settings to facilitate isolation and prevent secondary infections. Economic analyses support the use of comprehensive PCR tests, such as triplex-type tests, detecting SARS-CoV-2, influenza viruses, and RSV, as a first-line approach, as they can reduce case numbers and healthcare resource utilization. Maintaining PCR testing year-round is therefore crucial for the effective management of respiratory infections.

Respiratory Virus Vaccines: Pathways to Recommendations and Enhanced Coverage for At-Risk Populations

While marked differences exist between influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), there is substantial overlap in the vulnerability of populations most at risk for severe disease following infection, chief among them being advanced age, multiple comorbidities, and immunocompromise. Vaccination is an established and effective preventative strategy to protect against respiratory viral infections (RVIs), reducing morbidity and mortality, minimizing the potential for long-term complications, and mitigating exacerbation of existing health conditions. Despite the demonstrated benefits of immunization throughout the life course and recommendations by health authorities, coverage rates of at-risk populations against vaccine-preventable diseases remain suboptimal and vary considerably by country and demographic strata. The objective of this supplement's concluding article is to discuss the current barriers to vaccination and strategies to enhance coverage against RVIs among adult at-risk populations. Identified barriers include low awareness of the risks of vaccine-preventable diseases, low perceived benefits of vaccination, and doubts regarding vaccine safety, which together contribute to vaccine hesitancy. Additionally, logistical issues related to vaccine supply, access, and costs present further challenges in achieving optimal coverage. Potential strategies to overcome these barriers and improve uptake include strengthening and harmonizing immunization guidelines and improving respiratory disease surveillance systems to appropriately identify needs and direct resources. Co-administration or use of combination vaccines against multiple viruses may be a viable strategy to enhance coverage by simplifying schedules and improving access, together with future utilization of enhanced vaccine platforms to develop novel vaccines. In addition, vaccination-focused healthcare provider training and consumer education are recommended to address vaccine hesitancy. Reaching vaccination targets and expanding coverage in adult at-risk populations are increasingly achievable with the availability of new and updated vaccination strategies for respiratory viruses, but will require collective efforts across providers, policymakers, scientists, health officials, and the general population.

Burden of Acute Respiratory Infections Caused by Influenza Virus, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, and SARS-CoV-2 with Consideration of Older Adults: A Narrative Review

Influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are acute respiratory infections (ARIs) that can cause substantial morbidity and mortality among at-risk individuals, including older adults. In this narrative review, we summarize themes identified in the literature regarding the epidemiology, seasonality, immunity after infection, clinical presentation, and transmission for these ARIs, along with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on seasonal patterns of influenza and RSV infections, with consideration of data specific to older adults when available. As the older adult population increases globally, it is of paramount importance to fully characterize the true disease burden of ARIs in order to develop appropriate mitigation strategies to minimize their impact in vulnerable populations. Challenges associated with characterizing the burden of these diseases include the shared symptomology and clinical presentation of influenza virus, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2, which complicate accurate diagnosis and highlight the need for improved testing and surveillance practices. To this end, multiple regional, national, and global virologic and disease surveillance systems have been established to provide accurate knowledge of viral epidemiology, support appropriate preparedness and response to potential outbreaks, and help inform prevention strategies to reduce disease severity and transmission. Beyond the burden of acute illness, long-term health consequences can also result from influenza virus, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2 infection. These include cardiovascular and pulmonary complications, worsening of existing chronic conditions, increased frailty, and reduced life expectancy. ARIs among older adults can also place a substantial financial burden on society and healthcare systems. Collectively, the existing data indicate that influenza virus, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2 infections in older adults present a substantial global health challenge, underscoring the need for interventions to improve health outcomes and reduce the disease burden of respiratory illnesses.Graphical abstract and video abstract available for this article.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Other Respiratory Viruses in Hospitalized Infants During the 2023-2024 Winter Season in Mexico

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in young children. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant change in the epidemiology of RSV and other viruses occurred worldwide, leading to a reduction in the circulation of these infectious agents. After the pandemic, the resurgence of seasonal respiratory viruses occurred, but some features of these infections contrast to those registered prior to the pandemic. In the present work, we studied 390 children <5 years old admitted to the hospital to determine the contribution of RSV, SARS-CoV-2, human metapneumovirus (hMPV), and influenza viruses to acute respiratory infections during the 2023-2024 winter season in Mexico. RSV was the most frequently detected virus (n = 160, 41%), followed by SARS-CoV-2 (n = 69, 17.7%), hMPV (n = 68, 17.4%), and influenza A or B (n = 40, 10.26%). Fourteen patients required admission to the intensive care unit, including six (42.8%) with RSV infection. Four children died (1%). At least one of the four viruses was detected in all deceased patients: SARS-CoV-2 in one; SARS-CoV-2 and hMPV in two; and RSV, influenza A, and SARS-CoV-2 in one. The high impact of RSV and other respiratory viruses indicates the need to implement specific preventive programs to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with them.

Long-term trends and comparison of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections in China and globally from 1990 to 2021: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2021

Background

This study aimed to describe the temporal trends in the age and sex burdens of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 and to analyze their epidemiological characteristics to formulate corresponding strategies to control LRIs.

Methods

This study utilized open data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database from 1990 to 2021 to assess the burden of disease based on the prevalence, incidence, mortality, years lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of LRIs in China and globally. Moreover, a comprehensive comparative analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of LRIs in China and globally was conducted via the Joinpoint regression model, age-period-cohort model (APC model), and stratified analysis of the study method from multiple dimensions, such as age, sex, and period. Finally, we used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the disease burden in LRIs over the next 15 years.

Results

From 1990 to 2021, China's age-standardized incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates per 100,000 people decreased from 5,481.13 (95% CI: 5,149.05, 5,836.35) to 2,853.81 (95% CI: 2,663.94, 3,067.55), from 60.65 (95% CI. 52.96, 66.66) to 14.03 (95% CI: 11.68, 17) and from 3,128.39 (95% CI: 2,724.11, 3,579.57) to 347.67 (95% CI: 301.28, 402.94). The global age-standardized incidence, deaths, and DALY rates per 100,000 people, on the other hand, decreased from 6,373.17 (95% CI: 5,993.51, 6,746.04) to 4,283.61 (95% CI: 4,057.03, 4,524.89) and from 61.81 (95% CI: 56.66, 66.74) to 28.67 (95% CI: 25.92, 31.07) and from 3,472.9 (95% CI: 3,090.71, 3,872.11) to 1,168.8 (95% CI: 1,016.96, 1,336.95). The decline in the aforementioned indicators is greater in the female population than in the male population, and the decrease in China is more pronounced than the global trend. In China, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of LRIs showed an annual average percentage change (AAPC) of -2.12 (95% CI: -2.20, -2.03) and -4.77 (95% CI: -5.14, -4.39), respectively. Globally, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for LRIs decreased by -1.28 (95% CI: -1.37, -1.18) and -2.47 (95% CI: -2.61, -2.32). By 2036, the incidence of lower respiratory infections (LRI) among men and women in China is projected to decrease by 36.55 and 46.87%, respectively, while the mortality rates are expected to decline to 12.67% for men and increase by 71.85% for women. In comparison, the global decline in LRI incidence is lower than that observed in China, yet the reduction in mortality rates is greater globally than in China.

Conclusions

Age-standardized incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) decreased more in China than at the global level between 1990 and 2021. Compared with the previous period, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant decrease in the disease burden of LRIs. As the population continues to age, the disease burden of LRIs in the old adult population will become a major new public health challenge.

A comparative analysis of influenza and COVID-19: Environmental-ecological impacts, socioeconomic implications, and future challenges

In the last century, global pandemics have been primarily driven by respiratory infections, which consistently rank among the top 20 causes of death worldwide. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has underscored the intricate nature of managing multiple health crises simultaneously. In recent years, climate change has emerged as a major biosafety and population health challenge. Global warming and extreme weather events have intensified outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases, especially respiratory diseases. Influenza and COVID-19 have emerged as two of the most significant respiratory pandemics, each with unique epidemic characteristics and far-reaching consequences. Our comparative analysis reveals that while both diseases exhibit high transmission rates, COVID-19's longer incubation period and higher severity have led to more profound and prolonged socioeconomic disruptions than influenza. Both pandemics have highlighted the exacerbating effects of climate change, with extreme weather events intensifying the spread and impact of these diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global healthcare systems and economies on an unprecedented scale, outstripping the strain caused by influenza outbreaks. Importantly, the COVID-19 pandemic has not only reshaped global public health strategies but also significantly impacted the epidemiology of influenza. Despite these differences and associations, both diseases underscore the urgent need for robust pandemic preparedness and adaptable public health strategies. This review delineates the overlaps and distinctions between influenza and COVID-19, offering insights into future challenges and the critical steps needed to enhance healthcare system resilience and improve global responses to pandemics.

Changes in Epidemics of Respiratory Viral Infections Resulted From the COVID-19 Pandemic in Shanghai

To investigate the changing patterns of respiratory viral infections within the context of COVID-19 pandemic. The etiological surveillance data of eight respiratory viral pathogens among patients with ARIs in Shanghai between 2013 and 2023 were analyzed to evaluate the dynamic patterns of respiratory viral infections in Shanghai compared to global other regions during pre-pandemic (period 1), pandemic (period 2), and post-pandemic (period 3) periods of COVID-19. In Shanghai and various other global regions, there was a delay of 2‒4 months in the peak positive rate of IFV and a reverse seasonality for RSV, HMPV, and HBoV was observed following the relaxation of NPIs. The proportion of patients infected with any of these eight viruses experiencing fever or high fever notably increased. During the entire study period, IFV was consistently identified as the most prevalent virus, with IFV-B as the predominant stain during period 2, and IFV-A regained its dominance following the lifting of NPIs. The proportion of RSV among children significantly increased during period 2 compared to period 1. With the relaxation of NPIs, there has been a resurgence of certain viral pathogens, accompanied by notable alterations in seasonal patterns and the spectrum of viral pathogens.

Multiplex molecular assays for the laboratory-based and point-of-care diagnosis of infections caused by seasonal influenza, COVID-19, and RSV

INTRODUCTION

SARS-CoV-2, seasonal influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are major causes of acute respiratory infections in all age groups and responsible for an enormous socio-economic burden. The recently coined term 'tripledemic' describes co-circulation of these three viruses, a novel epidemiological paradigm that poses profound public health implications.

AREAS COVERED

Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is now considered the reference method for the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and RSV infections. Syndromic-based multiplex RT-PCR panels that simultaneously detect several respiratory viruses have become increasingly common. This review explores available molecular diagnostics (MDx) platforms for the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and RSV in the same biological sample. Within some limitations of the published validation and diagnostic accuracy studies, both laboratory-based and point-of-care multiplex panels proved highly performant in identifying SARS-CoV-2, influenza A, influenza B, and RSV. Improved operational efficiency and faster turnaround times make these assays potentially cost-effective or even cost-saving.

EXPERT OPINION

The adoption of multiplex MDx assays for the contemporary detection of SARS-CoV-2, influenza, RSV, and other respiratory pathogens will likely increase in the next few years. To maximize the clinical usefulness and cost-effectiveness of these assays, locally issued guidelines and protocols on their implementation should be adopted.

Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) due to Influenza in Post-COVID Resurgence: Disproportionate Impact on Older Māori and Pacific Peoples

OBJECTIVE

Influenza reemerged after a 2020-2021 hiatus in 2022, but understanding the resurgence needs pre-COVID era surveillance. We compared age- and ethnicity-specific incidence of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) from a hospital network in Auckland, New Zealand, in 2022 against a baseline, 2012-2019.

METHODS

Annual and monthly influenza SARI incidence per 1000 persons by age and ethnic group between 2012 and 2022 was calculated using resident population as the denominator. The hospitals capture most severe illness of the resident population.

RESULTS

Influenza SARI incidence was highest among <1 year olds (2.62; 95% CI: 1.84-3.61) during 2012-2019, lowest at 6-14 years, and did not significantly increase until 50-64 years (0.35; 95% CI: 0.27-0.45), reaching 1.19 (95% CI: 0.57-1.55) in those ≥75 years. In all age groups, incidence was at least threefold higher in Māori and Pacific Peoples. No influenza SARI was identified in 2020-2021. In 2022, despite an early peak, annual incidence (<65 years) was lower than baseline in all ethnic groups, but incidence (≥65 years) in Māori (2.06; 95% CI: 1.22-3.26) and Pacific (3.94; 95% CI: 2.97-5.13) peoples was higher in 2022 than most baseline years, whereas incidence in NMNP (0.22; 95% CI: 0.14-0.32) was lower than any baseline year.

CONCLUSION

After no influenza 2020-2021, Auckland had an early, high, narrow peak in 2022. Stratification by age and ethnicity revealed striking discrepancies in incidence among Māori and Pacific adults over 65 years compared with NMNP adults, with implications for targeted vaccination strategies.

Contribution of immunoglobulin products in influencing seasonal influenza infection and severity in antibody immune deficiency patients receiving immunoglobulin replacement therapy

Seasonal and pandemic influenza infection present a potential threat to patients with antibody deficiency. The acceptance and effect of the current recommendation for annual vaccination against influenza for patients with antibody deficiency is not well investigated and due to antigenic drift or shift the protective capacity of regular IgG replacement therapy (IgRT) is considered low. This narrative review considers the effect of influenza vaccination in immunodeficient patients and discusses available information on the effect of immunoglobulin products on seasonal influenza infectivity and severity in antibody deficiency patients receiving IgRT. The humoral immune response to seasonal influenza vaccination is reduced in patients with antibody immune deficiency. However, there is no evidence that the proportion of patients with primary antibody deficiency who develop influenza illness, and the severity of such illness, is increased when compared with the general population. The IgRT that patients receive has been shown to contain neutralizing antibodies as a consequence of past flu infections against both the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase surface proteins and other viral internal proteins of different influenza A virus strains. Studies have demonstrated not only significant levels of specific but also cross-reactive antibodies against seasonal influenza virus strains. Thus, despite the yearly changes in influenza viral antigenicity that occur, IgRT could potentially contribute to the protection of patients against seasonal influenza. Currently, only limited clinical data are available confirming a preventative effect of IgRT with respect to seasonal influenza infection. In conclusion, there is some evidence that IgRT could contribute to protection against seasonal influenza in patients with antibody-related immunodeficiency. However, additional clinical data are needed to confirm the extent and relevance of this protection and identify the main responsible virus targets of that protection.

Influenza outbreak during the surge of SARS-CoV-2 omicron in a metropolitan area from southern Brazil: genomic surveillance

Influenza circulation was significantly affected in 2020-21 by the COVID-19 pandemic. During this time, few influenza cases were recorded. However, in the summer of 2021-22, an increase in atypical influenza cases was observed, leading to the resurgence of influenza in the southernmost state of Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul (RS). The present study aimed to identify the circulation of FLUAV, FLUBV and SARS-CoV-2 and characterize the influenza genomes in respiratory samples using high-throughput sequencing technology (HTS). Respiratory samples (n = 694) from patients in RS were selected between July 2021 and August 2022. The samples were typed using reverse transcriptase real-time PCR (RT-qPCR) and showed 32% (223/694) of the samples to be positive for SARS-CoV-2, 7% for FLUAV (H3) (49/694). FLUBV was not detected. RT-qPCR data also resulted in FLUAV and SARS-CoV-2 co-infections in 1.7% (4/223) of samples tested. Whole genome sequencing of FLUAV produced 15 complete genomes of the H3N2 subtype, phylogenetically classified in the 3C.2a1b.2a.2a.3 subclade and revealing the dominance of viruses in the southern region of Brazil. Mutation analysis identified 72 amino acid substitutions in all genes, highlighting ongoing genetic evolution with potential implications for vaccine effectiveness, viral fitness, and pathogenicity. This study underscores limitations in current surveillance systems, advocating for comprehensive data inclusion to enhance understanding of influenza epidemiology in southern Brazil. These findings contribute valuable insights to inform more effective public health responses and underscore the critical need for continuous genomic surveillance.

Clinical performance of the Roche Cobas Liat SARS-CoV-2 & influenza A/B assay: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Respiratory tract infections caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and influenza viruses are persistent and critical. The Cobas Liat SARS-CoV-2 & influenza A/B assay (Multiplex Liat), the FDA-authorized point-of-care reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay, has a turnaround time of 20 min and high accuracy. This study evaluates the pooled performance of this assay to provide practical information. This meta-analysis was registered in PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42023467579). A systematic literature search was conducted within PubMed, Ovid-EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for articles evaluating the accuracy of the Multiplex Liat assay through September 2023. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled diagnostic values with real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR) as a reference test. A total of 4,705 samples from eight studies were included in the primary meta-analysis. The overall pooled sensitivity and specificity of Multiplex Liat were 100.0 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] = 96.7 %-100.0 %) and 99.7 % (95 % CI = 98.7 %-99.9 %), respectively. The presence of variants of concern or in-house rRT-PCR assays as reference standards did not significantly affect the pooled diagnostic performance of the Multiplex Liat. When 5,333 samples from nine studies were assessed for sensitivity, the pooled sensitivity was 100.0 % (95 % CI = 85.8 %-100.0 %) without a significant difference. This meta-analysis demonstrates the usefulness of Multiplex Liat for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 based on pooled diagnostic values. These practical findings may facilitate appropriate settings for the diagnosis and management of patients with respiratory tract infections.

Group A Streptococcus infections in children and adolescents in the post-COVID-19 era: a regional Italian survey

BACKGROUND

Despite the worldwide increasing incidence of Group A Streptococcus (GAS) infections reported since December 2022, data on noninvasive GAS (nGAS) infections in the post COVID-19 era are limited. By a self-reported survey performed in an outpatient setting, we investigated the number and clinical features of GAS infections, the diagnostic work-up and the type of treatment utilized. In addition, the rate of influenza vaccination was evaluated.

METHODS

In June 2023 family pediatricians involved in the study sent the survey to parents of patients aged 0-16 years. The survey included questions on GAS infections that occurred from January 1 to May 31, 2023.

RESULTS

Among 3580 children, 20.3% had a GAS infection (0,8% < 1 year, 16,4% 1-3 years, 42,3% 3-6 years, 26,5% 6-9 years, 11,4%, 9-12 years, and 2,6% 12-16 years). Symptoms reported were sore throat (76.9%), fever (75.2%), tonsillar exudate (25.2%), lymphadenopathy (21.8%), and scarlet fever (14.7%). A single patient was hospitalized due to GAS meningitis. Twenty four percent of children had more than one GAS infection. In this group, frequencies of symptoms reported in the first and in the following infection were similar, except for fever and scarlet fever which were less frequent during relapses. GAS was identified by rapid antigen detection test in 81.0% of children. Eighty-nine per cent of children were treated with antibiotics, mostly amoxicillin/clavulanate (40.4%) and amoxicillin (39.4%). Thirty four percent of children received influenza vaccine. No difference was observed among immunized and not immunized regarding the number and characteristics of GAS infection.

CONCLUSIONS

We reported a certain prevalence of nGAS infections in children, mainly those aged 3-6 years age, who were mostly characterized by a low score of symptoms, and in most of the cases diagnosed and treated using a microbiological test as confirmatory tool. In this new clinical setting, a national study would be useful to reach more significant data for the definition of a correct diagnosis and clinical management of nGAS infections in children. Moreover, it is important to improve flu vaccination campaign and coverage to protect children from coinfections that could worsen the disease and misdiagnose the etiology of pharyngitis.

Detection of influenza A(H3N2) viruses with polymerase acidic subunit substitutions after and prior to baloxavir marboxil treatment during the 2022-2023 influenza season in Japan

Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir), approved as an anti-influenza drug in Japan in March 2018, can induce reduced therapeutic effectiveness due to PA protein substitutions. We assessed PA substitutions in clinical samples from influenza-infected children and adults pre- and post-baloxavir treatment, examining their impact on fever and symptom duration. During the 2022-2023 influenza season, the predominant circulating influenza subtype detected by cycling-probe RT-PCR was A(H3N2) (n = 234), with a minor circulation of A(H1N1)pdm09 (n = 10). Of the 234 influenza A(H3N2) viruses collected prior to baloxavir treatment, 2 (0.8%) viruses carry PA/I38T substitution. One virus was collected from a toddler and one from an adult, indicating the presence of viruses with reduced susceptibility to baloxavir, without prior exposure to the drug. Of the 54 paired influenza A(H3N2) viruses collected following baloxavir treatment, 8 (14.8%) viruses carried E23 K/G, or I38 M/T substitutions in PA. Variant calling through next-generation sequencing (NGS) showed varying proportions (6-100 %), a polymorphism and a mixture of PA/E23 K/G, and I38 M/T substitutions in the clinical samples. These eight viruses were obtained from children aged 7-14 years, with a median fever duration of 16.7 h and a median symptom duration of 93.7 h, which were similar to those of the wild type. However, the delayed viral clearance associated with the emergence of PA substitutions was observed. No substitutions conferring resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors were detected in 37 paired samples collected before and following oseltamivir treatment. These findings underscore the need for ongoing antiviral surveillance, informing public health strategies and clinical antiviral recommendations for seasonal influenza.

Characteristics of medically attended influenza infection across age groups before the COVID-19 pandemic in Lebanon

BACKGROUND

Influenza represents a significant global health burden for individuals and society. This study assessed the burden of medically attended influenza at a tertiary medical center in Lebanon to describe the demographics, risk factors, and outcomes prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

This was a retrospective review of patients who tested positive for the influenza virus during three seasons between July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2019, at the American University of Beirut Medical Center.

RESULTS

A total of 2049 patients who tested positive for influenza were analyzed. Influenza A accounted for 79.6 % of cases, and influenza B for 19.7 %, with influenza activity starting in October/November and peaking in December/January. Older age above 65 years (AOR=3.584), obesity (AOR=2.183), and chronic conditions such as chronic lung diseases (AOR=1.832), and bacterial co-infection (AOR= 2.834) were found to be independent risk factors for developing complications. Viral co-infection increased the likelihood of death tenfold. Vaccinated patients had a shorter mean hospital stay duration and a lower intensive care unit admission rate.

CONCLUSION

The burden of medically attended influenza at our tertiary medical center in Lebanon prior to the COVID-19 pandemic was high. Vaccination decreased the likelihood of complications leading to intensive care unit admission in patients at risk.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Influenza A, influenza B, and SARS-COV-2 circulation patterns in midwest Brazil during the 2022-2023 period

Until 2022, the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2, had profoundly impacted the world. Consequently, Brazil, including the state of Goiás, was also significantly affected. Furthermore, in the second half of 2022, the state of Goiás experienced an unusual rise in influenza cases, despite it being an off-season period for influenza viruses in this region. As SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza infection have similar clinical manifestations, surveillance strategies are crucial for public health. Understanding how SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza viruses co-circulate is important for surveillance and monitoring of these patterns of respiratory infections. In this context, this investigation monitored Influenza A and B cases from symptomatic individuals diagnosed as negative for COVID-19. Between September 2022 and May 2023, among the 779 samples tested, 126 (16.2%) were positive for Influenza A, whereas 93 samples (11.9%) were positive for Influenza B. In this period, the peak Influenza infection cases did not coincide with the peak of SARS-CoV-2 infections, suggesting a seasonal shift in viral circulation patterns.

Epidemiologic and Virologic Characteristics of Influenza in Lao PDR, 2016-2023

BACKGROUND

Influenza sentinel surveillance in Lao PDR is used to inform seasonal vaccination programs. This analysis reviews epidemiologic and virologic characteristics of influenza virus infection over 8 years, before and after emergence of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

Data collected for ILI and SARI surveillance during January 2016 through December 2023 were analyzed from nine hospitals. Respiratory specimens from ILI and SARI cases were tested by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction to determine influenza positivity and subtype and lineage. Aggregate counts of outpatient visits and hospitalizations were collected from hospital logbooks. Epidemiologic trends of influenza activity were described, and the proportional contribution of influenza-associated ILI and SARI to outpatient and inpatient loads was estimated.

RESULTS

Influenza was detected year-round with positivity peaking during September through January and occurring in most years approximately 1 month earlier in the south than the north. After decreasing in 2 years following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, influenza positivity increased in 2022 and resumed its typical temporal trend. Influenza-associated ILI contribution to outpatient visits was highest among children ages 5-14 years (3.0% of all outpatient visits in 2023), and influenza-associated SARI contribution to inpatient hospitalizations was highest among children ages 2-4 years (2.2% of all hospitalizations in 2023).

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza surveillance in Lao PDR provides clinicians and public health authorities with information on geographic and temporal patterns of influenza transmission. Influenza surveillance data support current vaccination timing and recommendations to vaccinate certain populations, especially young children.

Influenza vaccination patterns among at-risk patients during the Covid-19 pandemic-a retrospective cross-sectional study based on claims data

PURPOSE

The Covid-19 pandemic may have encouraged at-risk patients to get vaccinated against influenza for the first time. As previous vaccinations are known predictors for further vaccinations, knowledge about individual vaccination patterns, especially in first time vaccinated patients, is of great interest. The aim of this study was to determine influenza vaccination uptake rate (VUR), individual vaccination patterns and factors associated with vaccination uptake among at-risk patients.

METHODS

The study design was retrospective cross-sectional. Based on claims data, VUR was determined for four influenza seasons (2018/2019-2021/2022). In a cohort subgroup, with data available for all seasons, VUR, vaccination patterns and factors associated with uptake were determined. At-risk patients were people aged ≥ 65 and adult patients with chronic diseases.

RESULTS

We included n = 238,461 patients in the cross-sectional analysis. Overall VUR ranged between 21.8% (2018/2019) and 29.1% (2020/2021). Cohort subgroup consisted of n = 138,526 patients. Within the cohort, 56% were never vaccinated and 11% were vaccinated in all seasons. 14.3% of previously unvaccinated patients were vaccinated for the first time in the first pandemic season (2020/2021 season). The strongest predictor for vaccination was history of vaccinations in all previous seasons (OR 56.20, 95%CI 53.62-58.90, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Influenza VUR increased during the Covid-19 pandemic, but only a minority of previously eligible but unvaccinated at-risk patients were vaccinated for the first time in the first pandemic season. Previous vaccinations are predictors for subsequent vaccinations and health care professionals should actively address at-risk patients' vaccination history in order to recommend vaccination in future seasons.

Lifting COVID-19-associated non-pharmaceutical interventions: potential impact on notifications of infectious diseases transmitted from person to person in 2022 in Bavaria, Germany

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have led to substantial decreases in case numbers of infectious diseases in several countries worldwide. As NPIs were gradually lifted, intense or out-of-season outbreaks of respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases were reported, raising the hypothesis of a potential catch-up effect of infections. By analysing surveillance data from the federal reporting system for notifiable infectious diseases, we aimed to assess the potential impact of lifting COVID-19 associated NPIs on notifications of selected infectious diseases in Bavaria, 2022.

Methods

We compared influenza, chickenpox, norovirus gastroenteritis, rotavirus gastroenteritis weekly case numbers in a pre-pandemic period (2016-2019) and 2022 using two time series analyses approaches: (i) a predictive model forecasting weekly case numbers for the pandemic years 2020-2022, based on 2016-2019 data, (ii) interrupted time series model, based on 2016-2022 data, including a term per pandemic period.

Results

In 2022, incidence rates were higher compared to pre-pandemic period for influenza (IRR = 3.47, 95%CI: 1.49-7.94) and rotavirus gastroenteritis (IRR = 1.36, 95%CI: 0.95-1.93), though not significant for rotavirus gastroenteritis. Conversely, case numbers remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels for chickenpox (IRR = 0.52, 95%CI: 0.41-0.65) and norovirus gastroenteritis (IRR = 0.59, 95%CI: 0.42-0.82). Seasonality changed notably for influenza, showing an earlier influenza wave compared to pre-pandemic periods.

Conclusion

The lifting of NPIs was associated with heterogenic epidemiological patterns depending on the selected disease. The full impact of NPIs and their discontinuation may only become clear with continued monitoring and assessment of potential additional contributing factors.

Changing epidemic patterns of infectious diseases during and after COVID-19 pandemic in Taiwan

Mitigation measures aimed at curbing the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 effectively suppressed the occurrence of many respiratory infections other than coronavirus disease 2019. Several infections experienced a resurgence following the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in Taiwan. This phenomenon, known as immune debt, primarily affected respiratory infections in young children, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection. Infections transmitted by means other than droplets or contact did not exhibit significant changes in their epidemic patterns, such as varicella and Japanese encephalitis. Alterations in seasonality were noted for RSV infection and influenza, and these changes are also linked to immune debt. The recent emergence of severe pediatric pneumonia in northern China may be associated with immune debt and the rise of macrolide-resistant Mycoplasma pneumoniae associated with severe illness.

Does Prior Respiratory Viral Infection Provide Cross-Protection Against Subsequent Respiratory Viral Infections? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The epidemiology of different respiratory viral infections is believed to be affected by prior viral infections in addition to seasonal effects. This PROSPERO-registered systematic review identified 7388 studies, of which six met our criteria to answer the question specifically. The purpose of this review was to compare the prevalence of sequential viral infections in those with previously documented positive versus negative swabs. The pooled prevalence of sequential viral infections over varying periods from 30-1000 days of follow-up was higher following a negative respiratory viral swab at 0.15 than following a positive swab at 0.08, indicating the potential protective effects of prior respiratory viral infections. However, significant heterogeneity and publication biases were noted. There is some evidence, albeit of low quality, of a possible protective effect of an initial viral infection against subsequent infections by a different virus, which is possibly due to broad, nonspecific innate immunity. Future prospective studies are needed to validate our findings.

Factors affecting the number of influenza patients before and during COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand

This study was aimed to explore the association between potential factors including public health and social measures and the number of influenza patients in Thailand between 2014-2021. Secondary data from relevant agencies were collected. Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) and regression coefficient (β) were performed at a significance level of 0.05. We found factors associated with number of influenza patients during the time prior to COVID-19 pandemic were monthly income per household (Adjusted β = -0.02; 95% CI: -0.03, -0.01), population density (Adjusted β = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.82, 1.18), rainy season (Adjusted β = 137.15; 95% CI: 86.17, 188.13) and winter time (Adjusted β = 56.46; 95% CI: 3.21, 109.71). During the time of COVID-19 pandemic, population density (Adjusted β = 0.20; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.26), rainy season (Adjusted β = -164.23; 95% CI: -229.93, -98.52), winter time (Adjusted β = 61.06; 95% CI: 0.71, 121.41), public health control measures (prohibition of entering to into an area with high number of COVID-19 infections (Adjusted β = -169.34; 95% CI: -233.52, -105.16), and restriction of travelling also reduced the number of influenza patients (Adjusted β = -66.88; 95% CI: -125.15, -8.62) were associated with number of influenza patients. This study commends strategies in monitoring influenza patients to focus on the areas with low income, high population density, and in specific seasons. Public health and social measures which can be implemented are prohibition of entering to risk-areas (lock down), and restriction of travelling across provinces which their effectiveness in reducing influenza infections.

Phylogenetic lineage dynamics of global parainfluenza virus type 3 post-COVID-19 pandemic

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, outbreaks of parainfluenza virus type 3 (PIV-3) decreased due to infection control measures. However, a post-pandemic resurgence of PIV-3 has recently been observed. Nonetheless, the role of viral genetic epidemiology, possibly influenced by a genetic bottleneck effect, remains unexplored. We investigated the phylogenetic structure of the publicly available PIV-3 whole-genome and hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) gene sequences spanning the last 65 years, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Sequences were retrieved from the nucleotide database of the National Center for Biotechnology Information using the search term "Human respirovirus 3." Sequence subsets covering all six genes of PIV-3 or the HN gene were designated as the whole-genome and HN surveillance data sets, respectively. Using these data sets, we constructed maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees and performed a time-scaled analysis using a Bayesian SkyGrid coalescent prior. A total of 455 whole-genome and 1,139 HN gene sequences were extracted, revealing 10 and 11 distinct lineages, respectively, with >98% concurrence in lineage assignments. During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, only three single-lineage clusters were identified in Japan, Korea, and the USA. The inferred year of origin for PIV-3 was 1938 (1903-1963) for the whole-genome data set and 1955 (1930-1963) for the HN gene data set. Our study suggests that PIV-3 epidemics in the post-COVID era are likely influenced by a pandemic-driven bottleneck phenomenon and supports previous hypotheses suggesting s that PIV-3 originated during the early half of the 20th century.IMPORTANCEUsing publicly available parainfluenza virus type 3 (PIV-3) whole-genome sequences, we estimated that PIV-3 originated during the 1930s, consistent with previous hypotheses. Lineage typing and time-scaled phylogenetic analysis revealed that PIV-3 experienced a bottleneck phenomenon in Korea and the USA during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. We identified the conservative hemagglutinin-neuraminidase gene as a viable alternative marker in long-term epidemiological studies of PIV-3 when whole-genome analysis is limited.

Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Infections Compared With Seasonal Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections in Adults Attending the Emergency Department: A Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

There is a controversy over the impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in an era of less virulent variants and an increasing population immunity. We compared outcomes in adults attending the emergency department (ED) with an Omicron, influenza, or respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection.

METHODS

Retrospective multicenter cohort study including adults attending the ED in 6 acute care hospitals in Stockholm County, Sweden, with an Omicron, influenza, or RSV infection during 2021-2022 and 2015-2019. During 2021-2022, patients were tested for all 3 viruses by multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were 90-day all-cause mortality, hospitalization, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission.

RESULTS

A total of 6385 patients from 2021-2022 were included in the main analyses: 4833 Omicron, 1099 influenza, and 453 RSV. The 30-day mortality was 7.9% (n = 381) in the Omicron, 2.5% (n = 28) in the influenza, and 6.0% (n = 27) in the RSV cohort. Patients with Omicron had an adjusted 30-day mortality odds ratio (OR) of 2.36 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.60-3.62) compared with influenza and 1.42 (95% CI .94-2.21) compared with RSV. Among unvaccinated Omicron patients, stronger associations were observed compared with both influenza (OR 5.51 [95% CI 3.41-9.18]) and RSV (OR 3.29 [95% CI 2.01-5.56]). Similar trends were observed for secondary outcomes. Findings were consistent in comparisons with 5709 pre-pandemic influenza 995 RSV patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients attending the ED, infections with Omicron were both more common and associated with more severe outcomes compared with influenza and RSV, in particular among unvaccinated patients.

Evaluation of disease severity and prediction of severe cases in children hospitalized with influenza A (H1N1) infection during the post-COVID-19 era: a multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The rebound of influenza A (H1N1) infection in post-COVID-19 era recently attracted enormous attention due the rapidly increased number of pediatric hospitalizations and the changed characteristics compared to classical H1N1 infection in pre-COVID-19 era. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical characteristics and severity of children hospitalized with H1N1 infection during post-COVID-19 period, and to construct a novel prediction model for severe H1N1 infection.

METHODS

A total of 757 pediatric H1N1 inpatients from nine tertiary public hospitals in Yunnan and Shanghai, China, were retrospectively included, of which 431 patients diagnosed between February 2023 and July 2023 were divided into post-COVID-19 group, while the remaining 326 patients diagnosed between November 2018 and April 2019 were divided into pre-COVID-19 group. A 1:1 propensity-score matching (PSM) was adopted to balance demographic differences between pre- and post-COVID-19 groups, and then compared the severity across these two groups based on clinical and laboratory indicators. Additionally, a subgroup analysis in the original post-COVID-19 group (without PSM) was performed to investigate the independent risk factors for severe H1N1 infection in post-COIVD-19 era. Specifically, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression was applied to select candidate predictors, and logistic regression was used to further identify independent risk factors, thus establishing a prediction model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were utilized to assess discriminative capability and accuracy of the model, while decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinical usefulness of the model.

RESULTS

After PSM, the post-COVID-19 group showed longer fever duration, higher fever peak, more frequent cough and seizures, as well as higher levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin 6 (IL-6), IL-10, creatine kinase-MB (CK-MB) and fibrinogen, higher mechanical ventilation rate, longer length of hospital stay (LOS), as well as higher proportion of severe H1N1 infection (all P < 0.05), compared to the pre-COVID-19 group. Moreover, age, BMI, fever duration, leucocyte count, lymphocyte proportion, proportion of CD3+ T cells, tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α), and IL-10 were confirmed to be independently associated with severe H1N1 infection in post-COVID-19 era. A prediction model integrating these above eight variables was established, and this model had good discrimination, accuracy, and clinical practicability.

CONCLUSIONS

Pediatric H1N1 infection during post-COVID-19 era showed a higher overall disease severity than the classical H1N1 infection in pre-COVID-19 period. Meanwhile, cough and seizures were more prominent in children with H1N1 infection during post-COVID-19 era. Clinicians should be aware of these changes in such patients in clinical work. Furthermore, a simple and practical prediction model was constructed and internally validated here, which showed a good performance for predicting severe H1N1 infection in post-COVID-19 era.

The changing clinical presentation of COVID-19 in children during the course of the pandemic

AIM

To investigate the evolution of clinical symptoms of COVID-19 in children throughout the pandemic.

METHODS

In this national prospective surveillance study, symptoms in children hospitalised with COVID-19 were collected from all paediatric hospitals in Switzerland between March 2020 and March 2023. Data was analysed across four time periods, according to the predominantly circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant: T1 (wild-type), T2 (Alpha), T3 (Delta) and T4 (Omicron), as well as by age group.

RESULTS

The study included 1323 children. The proportion of children admitted to an intensive care unit remained stable throughout the pandemic. However, the pattern and frequency of clinical manifestations changed over time. Respiratory symptoms were less prevalent during T1 (wild-type), fever during T2 (Alpha) and rash during T4 (Omicron). In contrast, fever and neurological symptoms were more prevalent during T4 (Omicron). Newly described symptoms during T4 (Omicron) included conjunctivitis, laryngotracheitis and seizures. Fever was more prevalent among neonates and infants whereas respiratory symptoms were more common among infants. Gastrointestinal symptoms were more frequent among toddlers, while both toddlers and school-aged children presented with neurological symptoms more often than other age groups.

CONCLUSION

Continuous surveillance is required to detect changes in manifestations and there by be prepared for the optimal management of complications in children with COVID-19.

Gasdermin D promotes influenza virus-induced mortality through neutrophil amplification of inflammation

Influenza virus activates cellular inflammasome pathways, which can be both beneficial and detrimental to infection outcomes. Here, we investigate the function of the inflammasome-activated, pore-forming protein gasdermin D (GSDMD) during infection. Ablation of GSDMD in knockout (KO) mice (Gsdmd-/-) significantly attenuates influenza virus-induced weight loss, lung dysfunction, lung histopathology, and mortality compared with wild type (WT) mice, despite similar viral loads. Infected Gsdmd-/- mice exhibit decreased inflammatory gene signatures shown by lung transcriptomics. Among these, diminished neutrophil gene activation signatures are corroborated by decreased detection of neutrophil elastase and myeloperoxidase in KO mouse lungs. Indeed, directly infected neutrophils are observed in vivo and infection of neutrophils in vitro induces release of DNA and tissue-damaging enzymes that is largely dependent on GSDMD. Neutrophil depletion in infected WT mice recapitulates the reductions in mortality, lung inflammation, and lung dysfunction observed in Gsdmd-/- animals, while depletion does not have additive protective effects in Gsdmd-/- mice. These findings implicate a function for GSDMD in promoting lung neutrophil responses that amplify influenza virus-induced inflammation and pathogenesis. Targeting the GSDMD/neutrophil axis may provide a therapeutic avenue for treating severe influenza.

Real-world effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination and age as effect modifier: A systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression of test-negative design studies

BACKGROUND

Under the global risk of epidemic rebound of influenza after COVID-19 outbreak, the study aimed to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) and to explore the potential effect modifiers.

METHODS

We searched for test-negative design studies with IVE estimates published between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2022. We estimated pooled IVE using random-effects meta-analysis, and conducted meta-regression with study site, age, sex and comorbidity as explanatory variables.

RESULTS

We identified 2429 publications and included 191 in the meta-analysis. The pooled IVE was 41.4 % (95 % CI: 39.2-43.5 %) against any influenza. For specific strains, the IVE was 55.4 % (95 % CI: 52.7-58.1 %) against A/H1N1, 26.8 % (95 % CI: 23.5-29.9 %) against A/H3N2, 47.2 % (95 % CI: 38.1-54.9 %) against B/Yamagata, and 40.6 % (95 % CI: 23.7-53.7 %) against B/Victoria, and the effectiveness against A/H3N2 was significantly lower than A/H1N1 (p < 0.0001) and B/Yamagata (p < 0.0001). The pooled IVE was 39.2 % (95 % CI: 36.5-41.9 %) in preventing influenza-associated outpatient visit and 43.7 % (95 % CI: 39.7-47.4 %) in preventing influenza-related hospitalization. The IVE against any influenza was 48.6 % (95 % CI: 44.7-52.2 %) for children aged < 18 years, 36.7 % (95 % CI: 31.9-41.1 %) for adults aged 18-64 years, and 30.6 % (95 % CI: 26.2-34.8 %) for elderly aged ≥65 years. Meta-regression revealed that the IVE was associated with the average age of study participants, in which both young adults [relative odds ratio (ROR) = 1.225, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.099-1.365, p = 0.0002] and elderly (ROR = 1.245, 95 % CI: 1.083-1.431, p = 0.002) manifested a significantly decreased effectiveness compared with children.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccines provided moderate protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza and related outpatient visit and hospitalization. However, the effectiveness may vary substantially by virus type and age group, suggesting the necessity to tailor vaccination strategies especially for older individuals and against the A/H3N2 strain, and to promote annual immunization and annual analysis of vaccine effectiveness.

Effects of scheduled school breaks on the circulation of influenza in children, school-aged population, and adults in China: A spatio-temporal analysis

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the effect of scheduled school break on the circulation of influenza in young children, school-aged population, and adults.

METHODS

In a spatial-temporal analysis using influenza activity, school break dates, and meteorological covariates across mainland China during 2015-2018, we estimated age-specific, province-specific, and overall relative risk (RR) and effectiveness of school break on influenza.

RESULTS

We included data in 24, 25, and 17 provinces for individuals aged 0-4 years, 5-19 years and 20+ years. We estimated a RR meta-estimate of 0.34 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.40) and an effectiveness of 66% for school break in those aged 5-19 years. School break showed a lagged and smaller mitigation effect in those aged 0-4 years (RR meta-estimate: 0.73, 0.68-0.79) and 20+ years (RR meta-estimate: 0.89, 0.78-1.01) versus those aged 5-19 years.

CONCLUSION

The results show heterogeneous effects of school break between population subgroups, a pattern likely to hold for other respiratory infectious diseases. Our study highlights the importance of anticipating age-specific effects of implementing school closure interventions and provides evidence for rational use of school closure interventions in future epidemics.

Unmasking the potential of secretory IgA and its pivotal role in protection from respiratory viruses

Mucosal immunity has regained its spotlight amidst the ongoing Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic, with numerous studies highlighting the crucial role of mucosal secretory IgA (SIgA) in protection against Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 or SARS-CoV-2 infections. The observed limitations in the efficacy of currently authorized COVID-19 vaccines in inducing effective mucosal immune responses remind us of the limitations of systemic vaccination in promoting protective mucosal immunity. This resurgence of interest has motivated the development of vaccine platforms capable of enhancing mucosal responses, specifically the SIgA response, and the development of IgA-based therapeutics. Recognizing viral respiratory infections as a global threat, we would like to comprehensively review the existing knowledge on mucosal immunity, with a particular emphasis on SIgA, in the context of SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) infections. This review aims to describe the structural and functional specificities of SIgA, along with its nuanced role in combating influenza, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2 infections. Subsequent sections further elaborate promising vaccine strategies, including mucosal vaccines against Influenza, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2 respiratory viruses, currently undergoing preclinical and clinical development. Additionally, we address the challenges associated with mucosal vaccine development, concluding with a discussion on IgA-based therapeutics as a promising platform for the treatment of viral respiratory infections. This comprehensive review not only synthesizes current insights into mucosal immunity but also identifies critical knowledge gaps, strengthening the way for further advancements in our current understanding and approaches to combat respiratory viral threats.

Immunogenicity and protective efficacy of a co-formulated two-in-one inactivated whole virus particle COVID-19/influenza vaccine

Due to the synchronous circulation of seasonal influenza viruses and severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there is need for routine vaccination for both COVID-19 and influenza to reduce disease severity. Here, we prepared individual WPVs composed of formalin-inactivated SARS-CoV-2 WK 521 (Ancestral strain; Co WPV) or influenza virus [A/California/07/2009 (X-179A) (H1N1) pdm; Flu WPV] to produce a two-in-one Co/Flu WPV. Serum analysis from vaccinated mice revealed that a single dose of Co/Flu WPV induced antigen-specific neutralizing antibodies against both viruses, similar to those induced by either type of WPV alone. Following infection with either virus, mice vaccinated with Co/Flu WPV showed no weight loss, reduced pneumonia and viral titers in the lung, and lower gene expression of proinflammatory cytokines, as observed with individual WPV-vaccinated. Furthermore, a pentavalent vaccine (Co/qFlu WPV) comprising of Co WPV and quadrivalent influenza vaccine (qFlu WPV) was immunogenic and protected animals from severe COVID-19. These results suggest that a single dose of the two-in-one WPV provides efficient protection against SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus infections with no evidence of vaccine interference in mice. We propose that concomitant vaccination with the two-in-one WPV can be useful for controlling both diseases.

Key Challenges for Respiratory Virus Surveillance while Transitioning out of Acute Phase of COVID-19 Pandemic

To support the ongoing management of viral respiratory diseases while transitioning out of the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries are moving toward an integrated model of surveillance for SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus, and other respiratory pathogens. Although many surveillance approaches catalyzed by the COVID-19 pandemic provide novel epidemiologic insight, continuing them as implemented during the pandemic is unlikely to be feasible for nonemergency surveillance, and many have already been scaled back. Furthermore, given anticipated cocirculation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus, surveillance activities in place before the pandemic require review and adjustment to ensure their ongoing value for public health. In this report, we highlight key challenges for the development of integrated models of surveillance. We discuss the relative strengths and limitations of different surveillance practices and studies as well as their contribution to epidemiologic assessment, forecasting, and public health decision-making.

Descriptive analysis to assess seasonal patterns of COVID-19 and influenza in low-income and middle-income countries in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America

OBJECTIVES

Understanding disease seasonality can help predict the occurrence of outbreaks and inform public health planning. Respiratory diseases typically follow seasonal patterns; however, knowledge regarding the seasonality of COVID-19 and its impact on the seasonality of influenza remains limited. The objective of this study was to provide more evidence to understand the circulation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, in an endemic scenario to guide potential preventive strategies.

DESIGN

In this study, a descriptive analysis was undertaken to describe seasonality trends and/or overlap between COVID-19 and influenza in 12 low-income and middle-income countries using Our World in Data and FluMart data sources. Plots of COVID-19 and influenza cases were analysed.

SETTING

Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

OUTCOME MEASURES

COVID-19 cases and influenza cases.

RESULTS

No seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-2/influenza cocirculation were observed in most countries, even when considering the avian influenza pandemic period.

CONCLUSIONS

These results can inform public health strategies. The lack of observed seasonal behaviour highlights the importance of maintaining year-round vaccination rather than implementing seasonal campaigns. Further research investigating the influence of climate conditions, social behaviour and year-round preventive measures could be fundamental for shaping appropriate policies related to COVID-19 and respiratory viral disease control in low-income and middle-income countries as COVID-19 variant data and epidemiologic patterns accrue over time.

Cumulative incidence and mortality rate of cardiovascular complications due to laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Influenza infection is associated with cardiovascular complications that range significantly in presentation and severity. The cumulative incidence of cardiovascular complications due to laboratory-confirmed influenza, however, is not reported in the literature. We conducted a systematic review and random-effects meta-analysis to evaluate the cumulative incidence and mortality rate of influenza virus-related cardiovascular complications in hospitalized patients. We searched the PubMed and EMBASE databases for studies reporting acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), arrhythmia of any kind, stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), and myocarditis in hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection. Prospective studies, retrospective cohort studies, and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were included in the analysis. We followed the PRISMA checklist and used 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to report meta-analysis outcomes. This study was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42023427849). After retrieving 2803 studies, we identified 19 studies (18 observational and 1 RCT) with relevant data, and we included 6936 patients in our analysis, of whom 690 (9.9%) developed a cardiovascular outcome of interest. The cumulative incidence of HF was 17.47% (95% CI: 5.06%-34.54%), arrhythmia of any kind 6.12% (95% CI: 0.00%-21.92%), myocarditis 2.56% (95% CI: 0.66%-5.38%), AMI 2.19% (95% CI: 1.03%-3.72%), and stroke or TIA 1.14% (95% CI: 0.00%-4.05%). The in-hospital mortality rate from cardiovascular events was 1.38% (95% CI: 0.00%-4.80%). Cardiovascular complications occur in patients with influenza virus infection, with the cumulative incidence of specific cardiac manifestations varying considerably (1.51%-17.47%). Preventive strategies and close clinical monitoring after infection remain a priority.

Quantified impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic in 13 African countries, 2020-2022

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for SARS-CoV-2 disrupted circulation of influenza. We used data from 13 African countries and generalized linear models to identify associations between levels of NPIs, using the Oxford Stringency Index, and seasonal influenza activity, using parameters derived from 2020-2022 seasonal influenza surveillance. We found that for each step increase in school closings, the average percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza across the influenza season dropped by 20% (95% CI: 1-38%); no other NPI was significant. These findings may inform interventions to slow influenza circulation in pandemics and possibly during seasonal epidemics.

Nowcasting and Forecasting Seasonal Influenza Epidemics - China, 2022-2023

Background

Seasonal influenza resurged in China in February 2023, causing a large number of hospitalizations. While influenza epidemics occurred across China during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures in December 2022 may have contributed to the spread of acute respiratory infections in winter 2022/2023.

Methods

Using a mathematical model incorporating influenza activity as measured by influenza-like illness (ILI) data for northern and southern regions of China, we reconstructed the seasonal influenza incidence from October 2015 to September 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. Using this trained model, we predicted influenza activities in northern and southern China from March to September 2023.

Results

We estimated the effective reproduction number R e as 1.08 [95% confidence interval ( CI): 0.51, 1.65] in northern China and 1.10 (95% CI: 0.55, 1.67) in southern China at the start of the 2022-2023 influenza season. We estimated the infection attack rate of this influenza wave as 18.51% (95% CI: 0.00%, 37.78%) in northern China and 28.30% (95% CI: 14.77%, 41.82%) in southern China.

Conclusions

The 2023 spring wave of seasonal influenza in China spread until July 2023 and infected a substantial number of people.