Cancer incidence in urban Shanghai, 1973-2010: an updated trend and age-period-cohort effects

Exploring temporal trends and influencing factors for thyroid cancer in Guangzhou, China: 2004-2018

PURPOSE

Describe and analyze the trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in Guangzhou, explore the potential influencing factors, and provide evidence for the government to formulate prevention and treatment measures.

METHODS

Incident and death cases of thyroid cancer were retrieved from the Guangzhou cancer registry. The joinpoint regression models were used to estimate the incidence and mortality trends. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects on the time trends. Grey correlation analysis was performed to explore possible connections between thyroid cancer and social factors.

RESULTS

A total of 15,955 new cases of thyroid cancer were registered in Guangzhou during 2004-2018, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of thyroid cancer increased from 4.29/105 in 2004 to 22.36/105 in 2018, with the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 13.40%. The overall increase can be attributed to the increase in the incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), which was dominated by tumors <2 cm. The ASIR was higher in women (16.12/105) compared to men (5.46/105), and young and middle-aged individuals had higher incidence rates than older people. The number of thyroid cancer deaths registered between 2010 and 2018 was 356, and the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were stable (approximately 0.42/105). Men's ASMR (0.34/105) and women's (0.49/105) were similar, and those 60 and older had greater mortality. The period and cohort relative risks showed an overall increasing trend. Furthermore, there was a strong positive correlation between the ASIRs and social determinants.

CONCLUSIONS

During the study period, the incidence rate of thyroid cancer among young and middle-aged people in Guangzhou showed a rapidly increasing trend, and the mortality was relatively stable. In the future, more effective preventive measures should be taken for this age group to reduce the burden of disease and avoid overdiagnosis.

Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2017: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis

Background and purpose

To provide a comprehensive overview of epidemiological features and temporal trends of pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2017.

Methods

Data on pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai were obtained through the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint analysis was used to describe the temporal trends and annual percent changes (APCs) and age-period-cohort analysis were used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on pancreatic cancer.

Results

There were a total of 29,253 cases and 27,105 deaths of pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai over the 45-year study period. The overall average annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 5.45/100,000 and 5.02/100,000, respectively. Both the incidence and mortality rates demonstrated fluctuating upward trends, with an average annual increase rate of 1.51% (APC = 1.51, P < 0.001) and 1.04% (APC = 1.04, P < 0.001), respectively. The upward trend in incidence was greater for females than for males, while the trend in mortality was seen in both sexes equally and continuously. In recent years (2013-2017), the age-specific incidence rates increased further than before, with statistically significant changes in the 35-year, 45- to 55-year and 70- to 85-year age groups (P < 0.05). The age-specific mortality rates also showed obvious upward trends, which in the 50- to 55-year, and 75- to 85-year age groups increased significantly. The results of the age-period-cohort analysis suggested significant effects of age, period, and cohort on the prevalence of pancreatic cancer.

Conclusion

The prevalence of pancreatic cancer, dramatically influenced by socioeconomic development and lifestyles, demonstrated a significant upward trend from 1973 to 2017 in urban Shanghai and underscored the necessity and urgency for additional efforts in primary and secondary prevention measures.

Temporal Pattern and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Breast Cancer Incidence in Iranian Women (2009-2017)

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer accounted for 28.1% of all female cancers in 2020 in Iran. This study was conducted to evaluate the time trend of breast cancer incidence and to identify the changes of breast cancer incidence in age, period, and birth cohorts in Iran, in the 2009-2017 timeframe.

METHODS

Annual cancer statistics for female breast cancer were obtained from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) database from 2009 to 2017. The age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was used to evaluate the time trend of breast cancer incidence in age, period and birth cohorts between 2009 and 2017. R package (Epi) was used to analyze data. Results were considered statistically significant at P<0.05.

RESULTS

The age effect showed an increased incidence of breast cancer until the age of 45, and after this age the speed of increase was slower until 65 years. There was an increased diagnosis in 2015-2017 (period effect) for many age groups, especially in the 70- and over 80-year-old group.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicated that breast cancer incidence peaks in the age of 45 in Iranian women, which is a decade earlier compared to the Western world. The period effect in 2015-2017 can be explained by the fact that in 2014, the former Iranian pathology-based cancer registry was upgraded to a population-based cancer registry, which resulted in improved coverage of cancer registry and case finding.

Temporal Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Major Reproductive-Related Cancers in Women in Guangzhou From 2010 to 2020: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Study

Objective: To understand the temporal trends of cancer incidence and mortality in women in Guangzhou during the past 11 years and provide clues for future research. Methods: Data were obtained from the Guangzhou Cancer and Death Registry. Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were obtained by joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was generated to quantify the effects of age, period, and cohort. Results: The ASIRs for cervical (AAPC = -4.3%) and ovarian (AAPC = -3.2%) cancers showed a downward trend during 2010-2020, and that for uterine cancer showed an upward trend. The ASMRs of breast (APC = 5.0%) and cervical (APC = 8.8%) cancers increased. The APC model highlights different age, period, and birth cohort effects depending on the cancer site. Conclusion: The ASIRs for cervical and ovarian cancers among women in Guangzhou showed a decreasing trend during the period. The APC model showed mortality for 4 cancers increased with age. Incidence and mortality decreased with increasing birth cohort. Annual reproductive cancer screening is recommended for women of appropriate age to reduce the disease burden.

Stratified analysis of multiple management of gastric cancer: A population-based study of incidence, mortality and DALY

The aim was to illuminate the difference in incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of gastric cancer (GC) between the United States of America (US) and China. The multiple management was analyzed with stratification to explore an effective survival improvement strategy. The Global Burden of Disease Study data was analyzed to assess GC morbidity, mortality and DALYs from 1990 to 2019 in the US and China. The age-period-cohort model was established to generate estimation of metrics. Verification was completed and stratified analysis of the multiple management was performed by accessing data of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database in 1992 to 2019. Continuous downtrends in GC incidence, mortality and DALYs from 1990 to 2019 and persistent uptrends in 1-, 3-year survival from 1992 to 2019 were observed in the US population. In the Chinese population, the overall trends of incidence, mortality and DALYs decreased with a fluctuating manner. The lower overall survival rates were observed in elderly, unmarried patients, distant disease and poor grade, as well as patients lacking of medical treatment (P < .05). In stratified analyses, single local therapy decreased and the other modalities increased over time across different stages. Moreover, combined treatment and single systemic therapy decreased, but single local and conservative therapy increased with age. The study quantified the incidence, GC-specific mortality and DALYs in the US and China and estimated stage profiles, 1- and 3-year survival in the US. The heavy burden on later-onset GC (>70) and potential increase on early-onset GC (<40) needed to be addressed. Combined modalities and single chemotherapy were becoming more widely used over time, however, their uses decreased with age because of poor physical fitness. Our findings provide new insights into management tailoring appropriately to specific subgroups contributes to the increasing survival rate.

Current status, trends, and predictions in the burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in China from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) has greatly damaged the health of patients and is accompanied by a dismal prognosis. The worldwide distribution of GBTC shows extensive variance and the updated data in China is lacking. This study was to determine the current status, trends, and predictions in the burden of GBTC over the past 30 years in China.

METHODS

This was a descriptive, epidemiological, secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study 2019 data. Data including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GBTC in China by year, age, and sex were assessed. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to evaluate trends of disease burden due to GBTC from 1990 to 2019. Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was applied for the projection of mortality and incidence due to GBTC from 2019 to 2044.

RESULTS

Nationally, there were 38,634 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 27,350-46,512) new cases and 47,278 (95% UI: 32,889-57,229) patients due to GBTC, causing 34,462 (95% UI: 25,220-41,231) deaths, and 763,584 (95% UI: 566,755-920,493) DALYs in 2019. Both cases and rates of burden owing to GBTC were heavier among males and at old age. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of GBTC generally increased from 1990 to 2019, with average annual percentage change at 0.8% (95% confidential interval [CI]: 0.6-1.0%), 1.3% (95% CI: 1.1-1.5%), 0.4% (95% CI: 0.2-0.6%), and 0.2% (95% CI: 0.1-0.4%), respectively. Even though the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate in both sexes were predicted to decline gradually from 2019 to 2044, the number of new cases and deaths were expected to grow steadily.

CONCLUSIONS

GBTC is becoming a major health burden in China, particularly among males and older individuals. Given the aging population and increasing burden, effective strategies and measurements are urged to prevent or reduce the number of new cases and deaths of GBTC.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of colorectal cancer screening in Shanghai, China: a modelling study

•

The current Shanghai CRC screening program is cost-effective.

•

Changing to a validated FIT would make the program more efficient.

•

The results were sensitive to an increase in the cost of the validated FIT.

•

The results were sensitive to more participation in screening and colonoscopy.

Background

The current community-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program in Shanghai, launched in 2013, invited individuals aged 50–74 years to triennial screening with a qualitative faecal immunochemical test (FIT) and questionnaire-based risk assessment (RA). We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the existing Shanghai screening program and compare it to using a validated two-sample quantitative FIT.

Methods

We simulated four strategies (no screening, Shanghai FIT, Shanghai FIT + RA and validated FIT) for the Shanghai screening program and evaluated CRC incidence, CRC mortality, the number of life years gained (LYG), the number of FITs, and colonoscopies required for each. An incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to assess the cost- effectiveness of each strategy.

Results

All screening modalities reduced CRC incidence and CRC mortality, gained extra number of LYG compared to no screening. Screening using the Shanghai FIT and validated FIT reduced CRC incidence from 45 cases to 43 per 1,000 simulated individuals (4.4%). Incidence was reduced to 42 cases (6.7%) using the Shanghai FIT + RA. All screening strategies reduced CRC mortality by 10.0% (from 10 to 9 deaths) and resulted in 6 to 7 LYG. The validated FIT was the most cost-effective among the evaluated strategies (ICER ¥26,461 per LYG).

Conclusions

Our findings show that the current Shanghai screening program is (cost-) effective compared to no screening, but changing to a validated FIT would make the program more efficient.

Phase I study of adjuvant chemotherapy with nab-paclitaxel and S-1 for stage III Lauren's diffuse-type gastric cancer after D2 resection (NORDICA study)

PURPOSE

The prognosis of diffuse-type gastric cancer (DGC) is poorer than that of intestinal type, but S-1 is a potential treatment option in DGC. This study explored the maximal tolerated dose (MTD) and the recommended dose for phase II study (RP2D) of nab-paclitaxel combined with S-1 (AS regimen) as adjuvant chemotherapy in stage III DGC.

METHODS

Patients with stage III DGC were recruited into this phase I dose-escalation study between July 2019 and June 2020 in Zhongshan Hospital. Nab-paclitaxel and S-1 (80-120 mg/day, d1-14, q3w) were administrated for 6 cycles, and then 8 cycles of S-1 monotherapy were applied. The patients received nab-paclitaxel at 180, 220, or 260 mg/m² according to the 3 + 3 design based on dose-limiting toxicity (DLT). The primary endpoint was RP2D. Secondary endpoints were the 1-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate and adverse events (AEs).

RESULTS

One case experienced DLT in 180-mg/m² dose group, subsequently three additional subjects were enrolled. DLT was not observed in the 220- and 260-mg/m² dose groups (both n = 3). Therefore, the MTD has not reached, and the RP2D of nab-paclitaxel would be 260 mg/m² . Five participants showed progressive disease, with three and two participants in the 180- and 220-mg/m² dose groups, respectively. The 6-, 12-, and 18-month DFS rates were 100%, 63.6%, and 50.9%, respectively. The most frequently observed AEs were neutropenia (83.3%) and leukopenia (66.7%).

CONCLUSION

The RP2D of nab-paclitaxel as adjuvant chemotherapy in DGC was 260 mg/m² . The AS regimen had a tolerable AE profile in stage III DGC.

Optimising colorectal cancer screening in Shanghai, China: a modelling study

INTRODUCTION

To reduce the burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Shanghai, China, a CRC screening programme was commenced in 2013 inviting those aged 50-74 years to triennial screening with a faecal immunochemical test (FIT) and risk assessment. However, it is unknown whether this is the optimal screening strategy for this population. We aimed to determine the optimal CRC screening programme for Shanghai in terms of benefits, burden, harms and cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

Using Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon (MISCAN-Colon), we estimated the costs and effects of the current screening programme compared with a situation without screening. Subsequently, we estimated the benefits (life years gained (LYG)), burden (number of screening events, colonoscopies and false-positive tests), harms (number of colonoscopy complications) and costs (Renminb (¥)) of screening for 324 alternative screening strategies. We compared several different age ranges, screening modalities, intervals and FIT cut-off levels. An incremental cost-effectiveness analysis determined the optimal strategy assuming a willingness-to-pay of ¥193 931 per LYG.

RESULTS

Compared with no screening, the current screening programme reduced CRC incidence by 40% (19 cases per 1000 screened individuals) and CRC mortality by 67% (7 deaths). This strategy gained 32 additional life years, increased colonoscopy demand to 1434 per 1000 individuals and cost an additional ¥199 652. The optimal screening strategy was annual testing using a validated one-sample FIT, with a cut-off of 10 µg haemoglobin per gram from ages 45 to 80 years (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ¥62 107). This strategy increased LY by 0.18% and costs by 27%. Several alternative cost-effective strategies using a validated FIT offered comparable benefits to the current programme but lower burden and costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the current screening programme in Shanghai is effective at reducing CRC incidence and mortality, the programme could be optimised using a validated FIT. When implementing CRC screening, jurisdictions with limited health resources should use a validated test.

Trends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Its Influencing Factors in China

Purpose

To explore the esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality trends and risk factors in China during 2005–2015.

Materials and Methods

The data were stratified by area (urban, rural), gender (male, female), and age groups (0 ~, 5 ~, …, 85 ~). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR), age-specific incidence and mortality were calculated to describe the trends, which were analyzed by Joinpoint software, negative binomial regression model, and age-period-cohort model.

Results

Trends in EC ASIR decreased markedly during 2010–2015 (APC=−6.14%, P<0.05), and the average annual percent change (AAPC) value was −8.07% (95% confidence interval (CI): −9.98~−6.12) for rural areas during 2005–2015. The ASMR was on a fast-downward trend after 2011 (APC=−6.67%, P<0.05), with AAPC values of −1.34% (95% CI: −2.56~−0.19) for males, −3.39% (95% CI: −5.65, −1.07) for females, and −9.67% (95% CI: −10.56~−8.77) for rural areas during 2005–2015. The age-specific incidence and mortality increased with age. The risk of EC for males was 3.1675 times higher than females (P<0.001), and for urban areas, it was 0.58 times larger than rural (P<0.001). The age and period effects presented an increasing trend, with a decreasing trend for the cohort effects in incidence and mortality risk. Later birth cohorts presented lower risks than previous birth cohorts.

Conclusion

ASIR and ASMR in China are higher in males than females, and higher in rural than urban areas, which have decreased during 2005–2015, especially in rural areas. The incidence increased with age up to the peak age group of 75. Area, gender, and age were independent risk factors for EC incidence.

Metformin Use and Survival in Patients with Advanced Extrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: A Single-Center Cohort Study in Fuyang, China

Aims

Metformin is an oral antidiabetic agent that has been widely prescribed for the treatment of type II diabetes. In recent years, anticancer properties of metformin have been revealed for numerous human malignancies. However, there are few indications available regarding the feasibility and safety of these studies in an advanced extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (EHCC) population. This study is aimed at evaluating the feasibility, safety, and value of metformin use and survival in patients with advanced EHCC.

Methods

All patients with advanced EHCC observed at Fuyang People's Hospital between January 2015 and November 2020 were included in the study. Case data, clinical information, and imaging results were abstracted from the self-administered questionnaire and electronic medical record. All patients were divided into study subjects and control subjects, and the study subjects were given metformin, 0.5 g, three times a day, while control subjects were without metformin. The metformin use and survival time of the subjects were asked by telephone, out-patient, or door-to-door visit, after they left the hospital.

Results

One hundred and thirty-three study cases and 589 controls were included in the analysis. This study showed that metformin use cannot improve the overall survival rate of patients with advanced EHCC ([95% CI]: -17.05-0.375, t = −1.889, P value = 0.061), but the survival time of patients with drainage treatment from control group (n = 496) was significantly shorter than that of patients with drainage treatment from the study group (n = 113), and the difference was statistically significant (z = −2.230, P value = 0.026). There were significant differences between metformin used before or after the diagnosis of advanced EHCC (OR[95% CI], 3.432[2.617-4.502]; P value = 0.001) in survival time. And there was significant difference between the duration of metformin use and survival prognosis (OR[95% CI], 2.967[1.383-6.368]; P = 0.005).

Conclusion

Metformin can improve the survival of advanced EHCC patients who underwent drainage treatment, especially for metformin use after diagnosis of advanced EHCC and long duration of metformin.

Risk Factors Associated With Early-Onset Colorectal Neoplasm in Chinese Youth: A Prospective Population-Based Study

Evidence of the risk factors associated with early-onset colorectal neoplasm from prospective population-based studies is limited. We enrolled 17,293 participants younger than 50 years from the Shanghai colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program cohort. Face-to-face interviews were performed by trained primary care physicians using a standardized questionnaire to collect the information on potential risk factors at baseline entry. Furthermore, 124 cases of early-onset colorectal neoplasm, including six CRC cases and 118 colorectal adenoma (CRA) cases, were detected between 2012 and 2016. Multivariable logistic regression models and restricted cubic spline (RCS) were used to evaluate the risk factors associated with early-onset colorectal neoplasm. We found that sex, body mass index (BMI), and family history of CRC were associated with the early onset of colorectal neoplasm. The RCS model showed a positive dose–response and linear association between BMI and risk of early-onset colorectal neoplasm among young participants (p-overall = 0.19, p-nonlinear = 0.97). The findings indicated that it was beneficial for normal people younger than 50 years to start opportunistic CRC screening. As for those at high risk, increased surveillance is strongly recommended. Further close follow-up is required for research on the underlying causes of early-onset CRC.

Time trends of major cancers incidence and mortality in Guangzhou, China 2004-2015: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Background

Cancer is an important focus of public health worldwide. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in incidence and mortality of leading cancer in Guangzhou, China from 2004 to 2015.

Methods

Data were collected from the population‐based registry in Guangzhou. Age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age‐standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated and Joinpoint regression was used for evaluating the average annual percent changes (AAPC) among the entire study period and the estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) in time segments. The effects of age, period, and birth cohort were assessed by the age–period–cohort model.

Results

The age‐standardized incidence and mortality by the world standard population decreased significantly among males with AAPC of −1.7% (95% CI: −3.0%, 0.2%) and −2.7% (95% CI: −4.3%, −1.1%) for all malignancies during 2004–2015, while among females, the age‐standardized incidence had a non‐significant reduction with AAPC of −1.3% (95% CI: −2.8%, 0.2%) and the age‐standardized mortality demonstrated a remarkable decline (AAPC −2.0%, 95% CI: −3.6%, −0.3%). For males, the most commonly diagnosed cancers were trachea, bronchus, and lung (TBL), liver, colorectal, nasopharyngeal, stomach, and prostate cancer. For females, breast, TBL, colorectal, liver stomach, and thyroid cancer ranked the top. Unfavorable trends were observed in ASIR of colorectal, thyroid, and prostate cancer. APC models yielded different ages, periods, and birth cohort effect patterns by cancer sites.

Conclusions

Cancer burden remained a public health challenge in Guangzhou as the aging population and lifestyles changes, despite declines in incidence and mortality rates in some cancers. Surveillance of cancer trends contributed to valuable insights into cancer prevention and control.

Protocol for a gallbladder cancer registry study in China: the Chinese Research Group of Gallbladder Cancer (CRGGC) study

INTRODUCTION

Gallbladder cancer (GBC), the sixth most common gastrointestinal tract cancer, poses a significant disease burden in China. However, no national representative data are available on the clinical characteristics, treatment and prognosis of GBC in the Chinese population.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Chinese Research Group of Gallbladder Cancer (CRGGC) study is a multicentre retrospective registry cohort study. Clinically diagnosed patient with GBC will be identified from 1 January 2008 to December, 2019, by reviewing the electronic medical records from 76 tertiary and secondary hospitals across 28 provinces in China. Patients with pathological and radiological diagnoses of malignancy, including cancer in situ, from the gallbladder and cystic duct are eligible, according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network 2019 guidelines. Patients will be excluded if GBC is the secondary diagnosis in the discharge summary. The demographic characteristics, medical history, physical examination results, surgery information, pathological data, laboratory examination results and radiology reports will be collected in a standardised case report form. By May 2021, approximately 6000 patient with GBC will be included. The clinical follow-up data will be updated until 5 years after the last admission for GBC of each patient. The study aimed (1) to depict the clinical characteristics, including demographics, pathology, treatment and prognosis of patient with GBC in China; (2) to evaluate the adherence to clinical guidelines of GBC and (3) to improve clinical practice for diagnosing and treating GBC and provide references for policy-makers.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The protocol of the CRGGC has been approved by the Committee for Ethics of Xinhua Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine (SHEC-C-2019-085). All results of this study will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at relevant conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04140552, Pre-results.

Cohort profile: protocol and baseline survey for the Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank (SSACB) study

PURPOSE

The Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank (SSACB) was established to identify environmental, lifestyle and genetic risk factors for non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs) in adults (20-74 years old) living in a suburban area of Shanghai with rapid urbanisation.

PARTICIPANTS

Two of eight suburban district were purposely selected according to participant willingness, health service facilities, population, geographic region and electronic medical record system. From these suburban districts, four communities were selected based on economic level and population size. At stage three, one-third of the committees/villages were randomly selected from each community. All residents aged 20-74 years old were invited as study participants.

FINDINGS TO DATE

The baseline data on demographics, lifestyle and physical health-related factors were collected using a face-to-face questionnaire interview. All participants completed physical examinations and had blood and urine tests. Blood and urine samples from these tests were stored in a biobank. From 6 April 2016 through 31 October 2017, we conducted face-to-face interviews and clinical examinations in 44 887 participants: 35 727 from Songjiang District and 9160 from Jiading District. The average age of participants was 56.4±11.2 years in Songjiang and 56.6±10.5 years in Jiading. The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidaemia was 34.0%, 8.2% and 11.1%, respectively.

FUTURE PLANS

In-person surveys will be conducted every 5 years. For annual tracking, baseline data was linked to the local health information system, which was composed of an electronic medical record system, a chronic disease management system, a cancer registry system, an infectious disease report system and a death registry system. The data of the SSACB cohort is located in the School of Public Health, Fudan University. International and domestic collaborative research projects are encouraged and inherent in the project.

Long-term liver cancer incidence and mortality trends in the Changning District of Shanghai, China

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the trends and estimate the long-term effects of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer (LC) in an urban district of Shanghai, China.

METHODS

Crude and age-standardized rates of the incidence and mortality of LC were calculated from 1973 to 2013 annually by sex, and the direction and magnitude of the trends were estimated by the average annual percentage change (AAPC) using the Joinpoint Regression Model. An age-period-cohort (APC) model was also used to evaluate the non-linear effects of calendar time and birth cohort on LC incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

In 1973-1977 and 2008-2013 the age-standardized rates of LC incidence and mortality (per 100 000) were 24.27 and 22.60 in men, and 7.50 and 7.26 in women, respectively. Declining trends of LC incidence and mortality rates were observed for both sexes (AAPC; P < 0.05 for both). The APC models indicated that the rates of LC incidence and mortality were significantly influenced both by calendar time and birth cohort effects.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and mortality rates of LC have decreased in both sexes in the Changning District of Shanghai over the past four decades. Although obvious descending trends of LC incidence and mortality were detected, attention should also be paid to the LC burden for a long time in the future because of huge population size in China and the continuity of population aging.

Distinctive lung cancer incidence trends among men and women attributable to the period effect in Shanghai: An analysis spanning 42 years

Background

Many previous studies reported secular trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality, but little is known about the possible reasons for these trends.

Methods

Data were obtained from Shanghai Cancer Registry. Age‐standardized rates were calculated and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) were evaluated by Joinpoint regression. Age, period, and birth cohort effects were assessed by age‐period‐cohort models.

Results

From 1973 to 2010, compared with long‐time slowly increasing trend in women, male lung cancer incidence had significantly decreased between 2001 and 2009. After that lung cancer incidence rising sharply in women (AAPC = 14.13%, 95%CI: 2.68%‐26.86%, P = .016) and similar rising trends without statistical significance in men (AAPC = 2.96, 95%CI: −2.47%‐8.69%, P = .281) between 2010 and 2014. Age‐period cohort model showed the different patterns of period effects for lung cancer incidence between men and women. The period effects for lung cancer incidence showed rising effect for women, whereas there was decline effect for lung cancer incidence for men. On the other hand, the model showed a significant period effect in both genders with a similar fashion in mortality, yielding steady falling trends during the entire study period.

Conclusions

The distinctive patterns of lung cancer incidence between men and women may be attributable to significant period effects, which reflected the changes in public health policies or diagnostic practices and highlighted the urgent of continued monitoring of gender‐specific risk factors for lung cancer incidence.

Adherence to dietary recommendations and colorectal cancer risk: results from two prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Understanding the association between diet and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk is essential to curbing the epidemic of this cancer. This study prospectively evaluated adherence to the Chinese Food Pagoda (CHFP), and two American Dietary Guidelines: the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI-2010) and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) in association with CRC risk among Chinese adults living in urban Shanghai, China.

METHODS

Participants included 60 161 men and 72 445 women aged 40-74, from two ongoing population-based prospective cohort studies. Associations between dietary guideline compliance scores and CRC risk were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard regression analyses, with age as time metric, and potential confounders were adjusted.

RESULTS

We identified 1670 CRC incidence cases (691 males and 979 females) during an average 8.1 years of follow-up for men and 13.4 years for women. CHFP score was inversely associated with risk of CRC, with hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals) of 0.88 (0.77, 1.00), 0.86 (0.75, 0.98) and 0.84 (0.73, 0.96) for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quartiles versus 1st quartile, respectively (Ptrend= 0.01). The inverse association appeared stronger for rectal cancer, individuals at younger age (< 50 years), with a lower BMI (<25 kg/m2) or without any metabolic conditions at baseline, although no multiplicative interactions were noted. No consistent association pattern was observed for the modified DASH score and the modified AHEI-2010.

CONCLUSIONS

Compliance with the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese was associated with reduced risk of CRC among Chinese adults. To maximize health impacts, dietary recommendations need to be tailored for specific populations.

Analysis of inpatients' characteristics and spatio-temporal distribution of liver cancer incidence in Wuwei, Gansu Province, from 1995 to 2016: A long-term span retrospective study

This long-term span retrospective study aimed to determine the incidence and spatial-temporal trends of liver cancer in Wuwei city from 1995 to 2016 to provide scientific knowledge on the prevention and treatment of liver cancer.Data from the medical records of liver cancer patients treated in 12 sentinel hospitals in Wuwei city were extracted. SAS and Joinpoint software were used for data analysis, ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to make geographical distribution map, and SaTScan 9.4 software was used for clustering area detection.Of 2271 patients with liver cancer (average age, 58.73 years), 17.7% were 60 to 64 years of age. Majority were males (1680, 74%), with a sex ratio of 2.84. Joinpoint regression analysis from 1995 to 2016 revealed that the standardized liver cancer rate increased [annual average rate of change (AAPC) = 12.80% (95% CI: 9.5%-16.7%)], with a joinpoint in 2009. From 1995 to 2009, the change in overall APC was statistically significant [APC = 16.7 (95% CI: 12.3%-21.3%)]. The average incidence was the highest in Hongshagang Town. After 2005, the incidence gradually increased in each township. Five clusters of liver cancer were noted in Wuwei, including 37 townships.Males had a higher standardized liver cancer rate. After 2009, increase in the incidence of liver cancer was less rapid. The incidence of liver cancer in townships of Wuwei city was non-random, with certain spatial aggregations, covering 37 townships.

Long noncoding RNA CHL1-AS1 promotes cell proliferation and migration by sponging miR-6076 to regulate CHL1 expression in endometrial cancer

Endometrial cancer (EC) is deemed to be the most typical gynecologic malignant tumor. Despite the incidence of EC being lower in Asia than that in western countries, substantial increased incidence has been observed in the past few decades in Asia. Although various molecular testing methods and genomic science have developed, the overall prognosis is still disappointing. LncRNAs have been found to influence the progression of various cancers. CHL1-AS1 has been found to be upregulated in ovarian endometriosis, nevertheless, the molecular mechanism and biological function of CHL1-AS1 in EC have not been explored. In our exploration, both CHL1-AS1 and CHL1 were upregulated in EC cells. Knockdown of CHL1-AS1 or CHL1 inhibited cell proliferation and migration in EC. Furthermore, microRNA-6076 (miR-6076) could bind with CHL1-AS1 or CHL1, and regulate the expression of CHL1. Finally, absence of miR-6076 or overexpression of CHL1 can partially rescue the effect of CHL1-AS1 knockdown or miR-6076 upregulation on cell proliferation and migration, respectively. All in all, our research was the first endeavor to study the underlying mechanism of CHL1-AS1 in EC and confirmed that CHL1-AS1 regulated EC progression via targeting the miR-6076/CHL1 axis, offering new insight into treating EC.

Time Trends And Age-Period-Cohort Effects On The Incidence Of Gastric Cancer In Changle From 2003 To 2012

Purpose

Although the incidence of gastric cancer in China has declined over the past decades, they were still much higher than the average of global. This aim of this study was to describe the trends and age-period-cohort effects on gastric cancer incidence from 2003 to 2012 in Changle and to explore the potential reason.

Materials and methods

Data on patients with gastric cancer diagnosed between 2003 and 2012 were collected by the population-based Changle cancer registration (n=4111). Age-standardized incidence rates of gastric cancer were calculated and joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the trends of gastric cancer incidence. Time trends in gastric cancer incidence by the period of diagnosis and birth cohort were analyzed by sex. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to investigate the independent effects of age, period of diagnosis and birth cohort among over 25-year-old residents.

Results

A steady downward trend was observed among men, with the incidence ranging from 96.15 per 100,000 in 2003 to 62.6 per 100,000 in 2012 (APC, −5.1%; 95% CI: −6.9 to −3.2%). A similarly declining trend was observed among women with the incidence ranging from 34.5 per 100,000 to 15.7 per 100,000 (APC, −5.7%; 95% CI: −9.3 to −2.0%). Age-period-cohort model of incidence rate showed increasing age effect and decreasing period of diagnosis effects in both men and women. Birth cohorts exhibited a decreasing trend in the incidence among women who were born after 1935 and men after 1940.

Conclusion

Recent decreases in the incidence of gastric cancer were due to decreased period of diagnosis and cohort effects, which was attributed to the improvements in their lifestyle and habits.

Time Trends for Prostate Cancer Incidence from 2003 to 2013 in South Korea: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

PURPOSE

Prostate cancer (PCa) incidence is affected by aging phenomenon and performance of screening test. In United States, PCa incidence is affected by period effect of U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation. However, no study has reported the effect of USPSTF recommendation or aging phenomenon on PCa incidence in South Korea. Thus, the objective of this study was to investigate effects of age, period, and birth cohort on PCa incidence using age-period-cohort analysis.

Materials and Methods

Annual report of cancer statistics between 2003 and 2013 from National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) in South Korea for the number of PCa patients and Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) data between 2003 and 2013 from national statistics in South Korea for the number of Korean male population were used. Age-period-cohort models were used to investigate effects of age, period, and birth cohort on PCa incidence.

RESULTS

Overall PCa incidence in South Korea was increased 8.8% in annual percentage (95% confidential interval, 6.5 to 11.2; p < 0.001). It showed an increasing pattern from 2003 to 2011 but a decreasing pattern from 2011 to 2013. Age increased the risk of PCa incidence. However, the speed of increase was slower with increasing age. PCa incidence was increased 1.4 times in 2008 compared to that in 2003 or 2013. Regarding cohort effect, the risk of PCa incidence started to increase from 1958 cohort.

CONCLUSION

PCa incidence was affected by period of specific year. There was a positive cohort effect on PCa incidence associated with age structural change.

Prevalence of patients hospitalised for male breast cancer in France using the French nationwide hospital administrative database

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer (BC) in men is a rare and neglected disease representing <1% of all cancers in men and only 1% of all incident BC in western countries.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to describe trends in the prevalence of patients hospitalised for male BC in France from 2009 to 2013, using the national administrative database (PMSI).

METHODS

We included all men aged ≥18 admitted to hospital for BC during this period and estimated the prevalence of male breast cancer hospitalised in France over 5 years. We also describe clinical characteristics and treatments in men with surgery for BC over the 5-year period of the study.

RESULTS

The prevalence of patients hospitalised for BC significantly decreased from 7.5 per 100,000 adult male inhabitants in 2009 to 6.3 per 100,000 in 2013. Considering the entire period, 2009-2013, we found a prevalence of 25.5 per 100,000 adult male inhabitants over 5 years. At 1 year of follow-up, we found a significant trend for at least one comorbidity (from 44.6% in 2009 to 51.2% in 2013, p = 0.04) but not for malignant nodes and metastasis.

CONCLUSIONS

Ours is the first study to analyse the prevalence of patients hospitalised for male breast cancer and its changes over time in the whole population of a country. Our study also provides data on the clinical characteristics and treatments of male BC in France.

Is exposure to tobacco associated with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma epidemics? A retrospective proportional mortality study in China

Background

Extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ECC) has become one of the most rapidly increasing malignancies in China during recent decades. The relationship between tobacco exposure and ECC epidemics is unclear; this study aimed to explore this relationship.

Methods

We included 55,806 participants aged 30 years or older from the National Mortality and Smoking Survey of China. Smoking in participants and spouses was defined as 1 cigarette or more per day for up to 1 year. Spouses’ smoking was taken as a measure of exposure to passive smoking. Smoking information in 1980 was ascertained and outcomes were defined as ECC mortality during 1986–1988.

Results

We found that either passive or active smoking increased the risk of death from ECC by 20% (risk ratio [RR], 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99–1.47), compared with no exposure to any tobacco. This risk was a notable 98% (RR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.49–2.64) for individuals exposed to passive plus active smoking. These findings were highly consistent among men and women. Pathology-based analyses showed dose-response relationships of ECC with pack-years for all types of smoking exposure (Ps for trend < 0.05); the RR reached 2.75 (95% CI, 1.20–6.30) in individuals exposed to combined smoking with the highest exposure dose. The findings were similar for non-pathology-based analysis.

Conclusions

This study indicates that tobacco exposure increases ECC risk. Given the dramatic increase of exposure to secondhand smoke and patients with ECC, an inadequate provision of smoke-free environments could be contributing to ECC epidemics and could further challenge public health and medical services, based on the current disease spectrum.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-019-5484-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mortality trends of bladder cancer in China from 1991 to 2015: an age-period-cohort analysis

Purpose

The effects of age, period, and cohort on mortality rates of bladder cancer in China remained vague. This study aimed to analyze the secular trends of bladder cancer mortality in China and estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort.

Methods

Data for bladder cancer mortality from 1991 to 2015 was obtained from the WHO Mortality Database and China Health Statistical Yearbook. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effect of age, period, and cohort. The intrinsic estimator method was used to solve the nonidentification problem of collinearity among age, period, and cohort.

Results

The age-standardized mortality rates of total residents (2.33–1.87/100,000), male (3.45–2.89/100,000), and female (1.24–0.82/100,000) showed decreasing trends, which was more obvious in males than in females. Age effects increased consistently with age in all age groups (coefficients: −2.02 to 1.91 in the total population, −2.06 to 2.02 in males and −2.04 to 1.81 in females). Cohort effects decreased overall (coefficients: 0.96 to −1.62 in the total population, 1.11 to −1.66 in males and 0.78 to −1.46 in females). Period effects were not found in China.

Conclusion

Although a decreasing mortality was observed, the bladder cancer burden in China will likely increase in the next few years due to population aging, environmental pollution, and food safety. The findings suggested that preventive measures should be taken corresponding to the changes in age-and cohort-related factors in the population.

Modeling Gene-Environment Interaction for the Risk of Non-hodgkin Lymphoma

Background: Non-hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is one of the most common and deadly cancers. There is limited analysis of gene-environment interactions for the risk of NHL. This study intends to explore the interactions between genetic variants and environmental factors, and how they contribute to NHL risk.

Methods: A case-control study was performed in Shanghai, China. The cases were diagnosed between 2003 and 2008 with patients aged 18 years or older. Samples and SNPs which did not satisfy quality control were excluded from the analysis. Weighted and unweighted genetic risk scores (GRS) and environmental risk scores were generated using clustering analysis algorithm. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted. Moreover, genetics and environment interactions (G × E) were tested on the NHL cases and controls.

Results: After quality control, there are 22 SNPs, 11 environmental variables and 5 demographical variables to be explored. For logistic regression analyses, 5 SNPs (rs1800893, rs4251961, rs1800630, rs13306698, rs1799931) and environmental tobacco smoking showed statistically significant associations with the risk of NHL. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) was 10.82 (4.34–28.88) for rs13306698, 2.84 (1.66–4.95) for rs1800893, and 2.54 (1.43–4.58) for rs4251961. For G × E analysis, the interaction between smoking and dichotomized weighted GRS showed statistically significant association with NHL (OR = 0.23, 95% CI = [0.09, 0.61]).

Conclusions: Several genetic and environmental risk factors and their interactions associated with the risk of NHL have been identified. Replication in other cohorts is needed to validate the results.

Time trends of incidence and mortality in colorectal cancer in Changning District, Shanghai, 1975-2013

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) and the estimated patient's age, diagnostic duration and birth cohort effects in patients of Changning District, Shanghai.

METHODS

Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of CRC over eight intervals of 5 years from 1975 to 2013 were determined. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to determine the changes in annual incidence and mortality trends. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to investigate their effects on the incidence and mortality trends of CRC.

RESULTS

For incidence, the ASRs of 14.14 per 100 000 and 11.81 per 100 000 during 1975-1979 increased to 32.11 per 100 000 and 26.25 per 100 000 in men and women during 2008-2013. For mortality, ASRs of 9.40 per 100 000 and 8.76 per 100 000 increased to 14.80 per 100 000 and 11.92 per 100 000 in men and women, respectively, from 1975-1979 to 2010-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis found an increasing incidence (average annual percentage change [AAPC] 2.18% for men and 1.65% for women) and mortality (AAPC 1.47% for men and 0.97% for women) of CRC throughout the entire period. The incidence and mortality trends of CRC were significantly affected by birth cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The increasing incidence and mortality of CRC are largely affected by the effects of birth cohorts. The increased incidence of CRC may be attributed to changes in lifestyle and diet, while that in mortality trends may be resulted from increasing incidence, an aging population and changing lifestyles.

Oral cancer incidence in Shanghai ---- a temporal trend analysis from 2003 to 2012

BACKGROUND

Oral cancer is a serious problem owing to its poor prognosis and destruction of patients' eating ability as well as facial appearance. Epidemiological studies can provide aetiological clues for prevention. The prevalence of oral cancer in densely populated cities in eastern China is unclear. The aim of the study is to analyse the incidence rates of oral cancer in Shanghai over the period 2003-2012 and estimate the temporal trends.

METHODS

Cases of oral cancer were retrieved from the Shanghai Cancer Registry system in the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control & Prevention for the years 2003 to 2012. Information on the corresponding population was obtained from the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Public Security. Age-standardised incidence rates were directly calculated according to the world standard population. An annual percent change model was employed to analyse the temporal trends of cancer incidence.

RESULTS

A total of 3860 oral cancer cases were reported, representing 0.69% of all malignancies in Shanghai during the 10-year study period. The mean age at diagnosis was 64 years. The age-standardised incidence rate was 1.34 per 100,000 person-years, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.41. Annually, the incidence rates increased by 3.83 and 2.54% for men and women, respectively. The increase was most noticeable in males aged 45-64 years.

CONCLUSION

In Shanghai, the oral cancer incidence is relatively low. However, it is continuously increasing, especially among middle-aged males. This finding urges further investigations on the risk factors of oral cancer in this population, especially on changes in living patterns, such as the smoking, drinking, and dietary habits.

Circulating Levels of Inflammatory Proteins and Survival in Patients with Gallbladder Cancer

Although inflammation is central to gallbladder cancer (GBC) development and proliferation, no study has systematically investigated circulating inflammatory proteins and patient survival. We aimed to examine whether the circulating levels of inflammatory proteins is associated with all-cause mortality among such patients. We recruited 134 patients with newly diagnosed with GBC from 1997 to 2001 in a population-based study in Shanghai and an independent set of 35 patients from 2012 to 2013 in Chile. Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for covariates were used to evaluate the hazard ratios (HRs) for death by serum levels of 49 inflammatory proteins (quartiles). Of 49 evaluable proteins, eight were significantly associated with overall survival. Seven were associated with a poorer survival, while the highest levels of tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) were associated with an increase in survival (HR = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.14, 0.47). No substantial difference in the magnitude of the association was observed between early- and late-stages of GBC. Of seven proteins, five were validated in the patients from Chile. Reducing inflammation and targeting pathways associated with increased survival might improve GBC outcomes. The potential for using a TRAIL-related anticancer drug for GBC treatment merits further investigation.

Associations between genetic variants in immunoregulatory genes and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in a Chinese population

We undertook a hospital-based case-control study to examine the associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in selected immunoregulatory genes and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) risk in a Chinese population. One hundred and sixty-nine NHL patients diagnosed according to the World Health Organization (WHO) 2001 standard and 421 controls were recruited. Nine SNPs in three genes (IL-10, IL-1RN, and TNF-α) were selected based on predicted functions and previous study findings. Genetic association analysis was performed using the Cochran-Armitage trend test and multiple logistic regression. Four SNPs were associated with an increased risk of overall NHL: odds ratio per minor allele [ORper-minor-allele] and 95% confidence interval [CI] were 2.64 (1.75-3.98) for IL-10 rs1800893, 2.67 (1.72-4.16) for IL-1RN rs4251961, 1.80 (1.24-2.63) for TNF- α rs1800630, and 1.55 (1.02-2.37) for TNF- α rs2229094. These SNPs were also associated with an increased risk of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). In addition, another SNP (TNF- α rs1041981) was associated with an increased risk of DLBCL (ORper-minor-allele=1.73, 95% CI 1.14-2.61). The findings provide evidence on the role of these immunoregulatory gene variants in NHL etiology.

Less overdiagnosis of kidney cancer? an age-period-cohort analysis of incidence trends in 16 populations worldwide

The increasing rates of kidney cancer incidence, reported in many populations globally, have been attributed both to increasing exposures to environmental risk factors, as well as increasing levels of incidental diagnosis due to widespread use of imaging. To better understand these trends, we examine long-term cancer registry data worldwide, focusing on the roles of birth cohort and calendar period, proxies for changes in risk factor prevalence and detection practice respectively. We used an augmented version of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series to analyze kidney cancer incidence rates 1978-2007 in 16 geographically representative populations worldwide by sex for ages 30-74, using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. The full APC model provided the best fit to the data in most studied populations. While kidney cancer incidence rates have been increasing in successive generations born from the early twentieth century in most countries, equivalent period-specific rises were observed from the late-1970s, although these have subsequently stabilized in certain European countries (the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Finland, Spain) as well as Japan from the mid-1990s, and from the mid-2000s, in Colombia, Costa Rica and Australia. Our results indicate that the effects of both birth cohort and calendar period contribute to the international kidney cancer incidence trends. While cohort-specific increases may partly reflect the rising trends in obesity prevalence and the need for more effective primary prevention policies, the attenuations in period-specific increases (observed in 8 of the 16 populations) highlight a possible change in imaging practices that could lead to mitigation of overdiagnosis and overtreatment.

Long-term time trends in incidence, survival and mortality of lymphomas by subtype among adults in Manitoba, Canada: a population-based study using cancer registry data

OBJECTIVE

To examine 30-year time trends in incidence, survival and mortality of lymphomas by subtype in Manitoba, Canada.

METHODS

Lymphoma cases diagnosed between 1984 and 2013 were classified according to the 2008 WHO classification system for lymphoid neoplasms. Death data (1984-2014) were obtained from the Manitoba Vital Statistics Agency. To examine time trends in incidence and mortality, we used joinpoint regression to estimate annual percentage change and average annual percentage change. Age-period-cohort modelling was conducted to measure the effects of age, period and cohort on incidence and mortality time trends. We estimated age-specific and standardised 5-year relative survival and used Poisson regression model to test time trends in relative survival.

RESULTS

Total Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) incidence in men and women was stable during the study period. Age-standardised total non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) incidence increased by 4% annually until around 2000, and the trend varied by sex and NHL subtype. Total HL mortality continuously declined (by 2.5% annually in men and by 2.7% annually in women), while total NHL mortality increased (by 4.4% annually in men until 1998 and by 3.2% annually in women until 2001) and then declined (by 3.6% annually in men and by 2.5% annually in women). Age-standardised 5-year relative survival for HL improved from 72.6% in 1984-1993 to 85.8% in 2004-2013, and for NHL from 57.0% in 1984-1993 to 67.5% in 2004-2013. Survival improvement was also noted for NHL subtypes, although the extent varied, with the greatest improvement for follicular lymphoma (from 65.3% in 1984-1993 to 87.6% in 2004-2013).

CONCLUSIONS

Time trends were generally consistent with those reported in other jurisdictions in total HL and NHL incidence, but were unique in incidence for HL and for NHL subtypes chronic/small lymphocytic leukaemia/lymphoma, diffuse large B cell lymphoma and follicular lymphoma. Survival improvements and mortality reductions were seen for HL and NHL in both sexes.

Diet and biliary tract cancer risk in Shanghai, China

Trends in biliary tract cancer incidence rates have increased in Shanghai, China. These trends have coincided with economic and developmental growth, as well as a shift in dietary patterns to a more Westernized diet. To examine the effect of dietary changes on incident disease, we evaluated associations between diet and biliary tract cancers amongst men and women from a population-based case-control study in Shanghai, China. Biliary tract cancer cases were recruited from 42 collaborating hospitals in urban Shanghai, and population-based controls were randomly selected from the Shanghai Household Registry. Food frequency questionnaire data were available for 225 gallbladder, 190 extrahepatic bile duct, and 68 ampulla of Vater cancer cases. A total of 39 food groups were created and examined for associations with biliary tract cancer. Interestingly, only four food groups demonstrated a suggested association with gallbladder, extrahepatic bile duct, or ampulla of Vater cancers. The allium food group, consisting of onions, garlic, and shallots showed an inverse association with gallbladder cancer (OR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.68-0.97). Similar trends were seen in the food group containing seaweed and kelp (OR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.67-0.96). In contrast, both preserved vegetables and salted meats food groups showed positive associations with gallbladder cancer (OR:1.27, 95% CI: 1.06-1.52; OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.02-1.37, respectively). Each of these four food groups showed similar trends for extrahepatic bile duct and ampulla of Vater cancers. The results of our analysis suggest intake of foods with greater anti-inflammatory properties may play a role in decreasing the risk of biliary tract cancers. Future studies should be done to better understand effects of cultural changes on diet, and to further examine the impact diet and inflammation have on biliary tract cancer incidence.

Long-term trends and survival analysis of esophageal and gastric cancer in Yangzhong, 1991-2013

Objective

To describe the long-term trends of the incidence, mortality and survival of upper digestive tract cancers in a high-risk area of China.

Methods

We extracted esophageal and gastric cancer cases diagnosed from 1991 to 2013 through the Yangzhong Cancer Registry and calculated the crude and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates. Cancer trends were calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program and were reported using the annual percentage change (APC). The cancer-specific survival rates were evaluated and compared between groups using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test.

Results

The age-standardized incidence rate of esophageal cancer declined from 107.06 per 100,000 person-years (male: 118.05 per 100,000 person-years; female: 97.42 per 100,000 person-years) in 1991 to 37.04 per 100,000 person-years (male: 46.43 per 100,000 person-years; female: 27.26 per 100,000 person-years) in 2013, with an APC of -2.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): -3.4%, -1.5%) for males and -4.9% (95% CI:-5.8%, -3.9%) for females. The age-standardized incidence rate of gastric cancer was 165.11 per 100,000 person-years (male: 225.39 per 100,000 person-years; female: 113.34 per 100,000 person-years) in 1991 and 53.46 per 100,000 person-years (male: 76.51 per 100,000 person-years; female: 32.43 per 100,000 person-years) in 2013, with the APC of -3.6% (95% CI: -4.5%, -2.7%) for males and -4.8% (95% CI: -5.7%, -3.9%) for females. The median survival time was 3.0 years for patients with esophageal or gastric cancer. Cancer cases detected after 2004 had a better prognosis.

Conclusions

The age-standardized incidence rates of both esophageal and gastric cancer continuously decreased since 1991 through 2013, whereas the mortality rate remained stable before 2004 and significantly declined following the massive endoscopic screening program initiated in 2004. The survival probability of patients with esophageal and gastric cancer has improved obviously in recent decades.

Trends of Esophageal Cancer Mortality in Rural China from 1989 to 2013: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Background: Esophageal cancer is one of the most common cancers in rural China. The aim of this study was to describe the time trends of esophageal cancer mortality in rural China and to better elucidate the causes of these trends. Methods: The mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database and the China Health Statistical Yearbook Database. The mortality data were analyzed with age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Results: Our study indicates that the Age-Standardized Mortality Rates (ASMRs) in rural China generally decreased from 1989 to 2003, and thereafter increased until the year 2008 in both sexes. After 2008, the ASMRs decreased again. The results of APC analysis suggest that the general decrease in esophageal cancer mortality in rural China from 1989 to 2003 might be caused by the downtrend of the cohort effects and period effects, while the general increase in mortality from 2004 to 2008 might be caused by the uptrend of the period effects. The decrease in mortality after 2008 may be relevant to the Four Trillion RMB Investment Plan launched by the Chinese Government. Conclusions: The declining cohort effects were probably related to the improvement of socioeconomic status in childhood and the decreasing consumptions of alcohol drinking and smoking, while the trends of the period effects were relevant to the changes in the dietary pattern. Our findings may help predict future changes in esophageal cancer mortality.

Relationships between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer: biological insights

Lung cancer (LC) has become one of the leading causes of preventable death in the last few decades. Cigarette smoking (CS) stays as the main etiologic factor of LC despite that many other causes such as occupational exposures, air pollution, asbestos, or radiation have also been implicated. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which also represents a major cause of morbidity and mortality in developed countries, exhibit a significantly greater risk of LC. The study of the underlying biological mechanisms that may predispose patients with chronic respiratory diseases to a higher incidence of LC has also gained much attention in the last few years. The present review has been divided into three major sections in which different aspects have been addressed: (I) relevant etiologic agents of LC; (II) studies confirming the hypothesis that COPD patients are exposed to a greater risk of developing LC; and (III) evidence on the most relevant underlying biological mechanisms that support the links between COPD and LC. Several carcinogenic agents have been described in the last decades but CS remains to be the leading etiologic agent in most geographical regions in which the incidence of LC is very high. Growing evidence has put the line forward the implications of COPD and especially of emphysema in LC development. Hence, COPD represents a major risk factor of LC in patients. Different avenues of research have demonstrated the presence of relevant biological mechanisms that may predispose COPD patients to develop LC. Importantly, the so far identified biological mechanisms offer targets for the design of specific therapeutic strategies that will further the current treatment options for patients with LC. Prospective screening studies, in which patients with COPD should be followed up for several years will help identify biomarkers that may predict the risk of LC among these patients.