Impact of Synchronous versus Metachronous Metastasis on Outcomes in Patients with Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Treated with First-line Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor-based Combinations

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The impact of time of metastasis onset with respect toprimary renal cell carcinoma (RCC) diagnosis on survival outcomes is not well characterized in the era of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI)-based combinations. Herein, we assessed differences in clinical outcomes between synchronous and metachronous metastatic RCC (mRCC).

METHODS

Data for patients with mRCC treated with first-line ICI-based combination therapies between 2014 and 2023 were retrospectively collected. Patients were categorized as having synchronous metastasis if present within 3 mo of RCC diagnosis; metachronous metastasis was defined as metastasis >3 mo after primary diagnosis. Time to treatment failure (TTF), overall survival (OS), and the disease control rate (DCR) were assessed.

KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS

Our analysis included 223 eligible patients (126 synchronous and 97 metachronous). Median TTF did not significantly differ between the synchronous and metachronous groups (9 vs 19.8 mo; p = 0.063). Median OS was significantly shorter in the synchronous group (28.0 vs 50.9 mo; p = 0.001). Similarly, patients with synchronous metachronous metastasis (58.7% vs. 78.4%; p = 0.002). On multivariable analyses, synchronous metastasis remained independently associated with worse OS and DCR.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

In this hypothesis-generating study, patients with mRCC with synchronous metastasis who were treated with first-line ICI-based combinations have a poorer OS and worse DCR than those with metachronous mRCC. If these results are externally validated, time to metastasis could be included in prognostic models for mRCC.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Our study demonstrates that patients treated with current first-line immunotherapies, who present with metastasis at the initial diagnosis of kidney cancer have worse overall survival compared to those who develop metastasis later. These results can help physicians and patients understand life expectancy.

Barriers to Clinical Trial Implementation Among Community Care Centers

Importance

While an overwhelming majority of patients diagnosed with cancer express willingness to participate in clinical trials, only a fraction will enroll onto a research protocol.

Objective

To identify critical barriers to trial enrollment to translate findings into actionable practice changes that increase cancer clinical trial enrollment.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This survey study included designated site contacts at oncology practices with teams who were highly involved with the Association of Community Cancer Centers (ACCC) Community Oncology Research Institute (ACORI) clinical trials activities, all American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO)-ACCC collaboration pilot sites, and/or sites providing care to at least 25% African American and Hispanic residents. To determine participation trends among health care practices in oncology-focused research, identify barriers to clinical trial implementation and operation, and establish unmet needs for cancer clinics interested in trial participation, a 34-question survey was designed. Survey questions were defined within 3 categories: cancer center demographic characteristics, clinical trial characteristics, and referral practices. The survey was distributed through email and was open from June 20 through October 5, 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Participation in and barriers to conducting oncology trials in different community oncology settings.

Results

The survey was distributed to 100 cancer centers, with completion by 58 centers (58%) across 25 states. Fifty-two centers (88%) reported that they conduct therapeutic clinical trials, of which 33 (63%) were from urban settings, 11 (21%) were from suburban settings, and 8 (15%) were from rural settings. Only 25% of rural practices (2 of 8) offered phase 1 trials, compared with 67% of urban practices (22 of 33) (P = .01). Respondents noted challenges in conducting research, including patient recruitment (27 respondents [52%]), limited staffing (27 [52%]), and nonrelevant trials for their patient population (25 [48%]). Among sites not offering therapeutic trials, barriers to research conduct included limited infrastructure, funding, and staffing. Most centers (46 of 58 [79%]) referred patients to outside centers for clinical trial enrollment, particularly in the context of late-stage disease and/or disease progression. Only 17 of these sites (37%) had established protocols for patient follow-up subsequent to outside referral.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this national survey study of barriers to clinical trial implementation, most sites offered therapeutic trials, but there were significant disparities in trial availability across care settings. Furthermore, fundamental deficiencies in trial support infrastructure limited research activity, including within programs currently conducting research as well as at sites interested in future clinical research opportunities. These results identify crucial unmet needs for oncology clinics to effectively offer clinical trials to patients seeking care.

Assessment of eligibility criteria in renal cell carcinoma trials evaluating systemic therapy

OBJECTIVES

To characterise the restrictiveness of eligibility criteria in contemporary renal cell carcinoma (RCC) trials, using recommendations from the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO)-Friends of Cancer Research (FCR) initiative.

METHODS

vPhase I-III trials assessing systemic therapies in patients with RCC starting between 30 June 2012 and 30 June 2022 were identified. Eligibility criteria regarding brain metastases, prior or concurrent malignancies, hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection were identified and stratified into three groups: exclusion, conditional inclusion, and not reported. Descriptive statistics were used to determine the frequency of eligibility criteria. Fisher's exact test or chi-square test were used to calculate their associations with certain trial characteristics.

RESULTS

A total of 423 RCC trials were initially identified of which 112 (26.5%) had sufficient accessible information. Exclusion of patients with HIV infection, HBV/HCV infection, brain metastases, and prior or concurrent malignancies were reported in 74.1%, 53.6%, 33.0%, and 8.0% of trials, respectively. In the context of HIV and HBV/HCV infection, patients were largely excluded from trials evaluating immunotherapy (94.4% and 77.8%, respectively). In addition, brain metastases were excluded in trials assessing targeted therapy (36.4%), combined therapy (33.3%), and immunotherapy (22.2%). Exclusion of patients with prior or concurrent malignancies was less frequently reported, accounting for 9.1%, 8.3%, and 5.6% targeted therapy, combined therapy and immunotherapy trials, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A substantial proportion of RCC trials utilise restrictive eligibility criteria, excluding patients with fairly prevalent comorbidities. Implementing the ASCO-FCR recommendations will ensure resulting data are more inclusive and aligned with patient populations in the real-world.

Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease and Its Attributable Risk Factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990 to 2019: Results From the GBD Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region has one of the highest burdens of ischemic heart disease (IHD) worldwide. This study reports the contemporary epidemiology of IHD in NAME.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We estimated the incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and premature mortality of IHD, and its attributable risk factors in NAME from 1990 to 2019 using the results of the GBD (Global Burden of Disease study 2019). In 2019, 0.8 million lives and 18.0 million DALYs were lost due to IHD in NAME. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of IHD significantly decreased by 33.3%, mostly due to the reduction of years of life lost rather than years lived with disability. In 2019, the proportion of premature death attributable to IHD was higher in NAME compared with global measures: 26.8% versus 16.9% for women and 18.4% versus 14.8% for men, respectively. The age-standardized DALY rate of IHD attributed to metabolic risks, behavioral risks, and environmental/occupational risks significantly decreased by 28.7%, 37.8%, and 36.4%, respectively. Dietary risk factors, high systolic blood pressure, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were the top 3 risks contributing to the IHD burden in most countries of NAME in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2019, IHD was the leading cause of death and lost DALYs in NAME, where premature death due to IHD was greater than the global average. Despite the great reduction in the age-standardized DALYs of IHD in NAME from 1990 to 2019, this region still had the second-highest burden of IHD in 2019 globally.

Impact of Initial Timing of Metastatic Disease on Survival in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Treated With Androgen Receptor Pathway Inhibitors

INTRODUCTION

Patients with synchronous (de novo) metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer appear to have worse survival outcomes and shorter time to develop castration resistance than patients with metachronous disease. However, the impact of synchronous metastasis on outcomes in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) setting is unknown in patients without prior exposure to androgen receptor pathway inhibitors (ARPIs). In this study, we assessed the impact of initial timing of metastasis (synchronous vs metachronous) on survival outcomes of patients with new-onset mCRPC in a real-world population treated with first-line abiraterone or enzalutamide.

METHODS

Data were collected retrospectively from 323 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of mCRPC who received ARPIs as first-line therapy and had no prior exposure to ARPIs. The study endpoints were progression-free survival and overall survival.

RESULTS

The results showed that median overall survival was significantly shorter in patients with synchronous disease than those with metachronous disease (26 vs 38.7 months, HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.09-1.86, P = .011). However, there was no difference in median progression-free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The initial presentation with synchronous metastasis remained an independent factor associated with shorter OS in the multivariable analysis. These hypothesis-generating data, after external validation, may have implications in patient counseling, prognostication, and design of future clinical trials in the new-onset mCRPC setting.

Real-World Outcomes of Latinx Versus Non-Latinx Patients Treated With First-Line Immunotherapy for Metastatic Renal-Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

There are limited data regarding the impact of ethnicity among patients receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors. We evaluated real-world outcomes between Latinx and non-Latinx patients with metastatic renal-cell carcinoma (mRCC) treated with first-line nivolumab/ipilimumab within 2 different healthcare settings.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of patients with mRCC who received nivolumab/ipilimumab within the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services (LAC-DHS), a safety-net healthcare system, and the City of Hope Comprehensive Cancer Center (COH), a tertiary oncology center, between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2021. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and covariates were adjusted using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Of 94 patients, 40 patients (43%) were Latinx while the remainder were non-Latinx (44 pts [46%] White, 7 pts [7%] Asian, and 3 pts [3%] Other). Fifty (53%) and 44 (47%) patients received their care at COH and LAC-DHS, respectively. Most Latinx patients (95%) were treated at LAC-DHS, and most non-Latinx patients (89%) were treated at COH. Pooled analysis by ethnicity demonstrated significantly shorter PFS in Latinx versus non-Latinx patients (10.1 vs. 25.2 months, hazard ratios [HR] 3.61, 95% CI 1.96-6.66, P ≤ .01). Multivariate analysis revealed a HR of 3.41 (95% CI 1.31-8.84; P = .01). At a median follow-up of 11.0 months, the median OS was not reached in either arm at the time of data cutoff.

CONCLUSION

Latinx patients with mRCC had a shorter PFS treated with frontline nivolumab/ipilimumab compared to their non-Latinx counterparts. No difference was observed in OS although these data were immature. Larger studies are needed to further interrogate the social and economic determinants of ethnicity on clinical outcomes in mRCC.

Examining Exclusion Criteria in Advanced Prostate Cancer Clinical Trials: An Assessment of recommendations From the American Society Of Clinical Oncology and Friends of Cancer Research

PURPOSE

Eligibility criteria illustrate the characteristics of the study population and promote the safety of participants. However, overreliance on restrictive eligibility criteria may limit the generalizability of outcomes. As a result, the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) and Friends of Cancer Research (Friends) issued statements to curtail these challenges. In this study, we aimed to assess restrictiveness in eligibility criteria across advanced prostate cancer clinical trials.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We identified all phase I, II, and III advanced prostate cancer clinical trials between June 30, 2012, and June 30, 2022, through Clinicaltrials.gov. We evaluated whether a clinical trial excluded, conditionally included, or did not report 4 common criteria: brain metastases, prior or concurrent malignancies, HIV infection, and hepatitis B virus (HBV)/hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Performance status (PS) criteria were recorded based on the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale.

RESULTS

Out of 699 clinical trials within our search strategy, 265 (37.9%) trials possessed all the required data and were included in our analysis. The most common excluded condition of our interest was brain metastases (60.8%), followed by HIV positivity (46.4%), HBV/HCV positivity (46.0%), and concurrent malignancies (15.5%). Additionally, 50.9% of clinical trials only included patients with ECOG PS 0 to 1. HIV and HBV/HCV infection were exclusion criteria of 22 (80.8%) and 19 (73.1%) immunotherapy trials, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Patients with brain metastases, prior or concurrent malignancies, HIV infection, HBV/HCV infection, or low-functioning PS were overly restricted from participating in advanced prostate clinical trials. Advocating for broader criteria may ameliorate generalizability.

Unique Spectrum of Activating BRAF Alterations in Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE

Alterations in BRAF have been reported in 3% to 5% of prostate cancer, although further characterization is lacking. Here, we describe the nature of BRAF alterations in prostate cancer using a large cohort from commercially available tissue and liquid biopsies subjected to comprehensive genomic profiling (CGP).

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Tissue and liquid biopsies from patients with prostate cancer were profiled using FoundationOne CDx and FoundationOne Liquid CDx CGP assays, respectively. Tissue biopsies from non-prostate cancer types were used for comparison (n = 275,151). Genetic ancestry was predicted using a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) based approach.

RESULTS

Among 15,864 tissue biopsies, BRAF-activating alterations were detected in 520 cases (3.3%). The majority (463 samples, 2.9%) harbored class II alterations, including BRAF rearrangements (243 samples, 1.5%), K601E (101 samples, 0.6%), and G469A (58 samples, 0.4%). BRAF-altered prostate cancers were enriched for CDK12 mutations (OR, 1.87; 9.2% vs. 5.2%; P = 0.018), but depleted in TMPRSS2 fusions (OR, 0.25; 11% vs. 32%; P < 0.0001), PTEN alterations (OR, 0.47; 17% vs. 31%; P < 0.0001), and APC alterations (OR, 0.48; 4.4% vs. 8.9%; P = 0.018) relative to BRAF wild-type (WT) disease. Compared with patients of European ancestry, BRAF alterations were more common in tumors from patients of African ancestry (5.1% vs. 2.9%, P < 0.0001) and Asian ancestry (6.0% vs. 2.9%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Activating BRAF alterations were detected in approximately 3% of prostate cancers, and most were class II mutations and rearrangements; BRAF V600 mutations were exceedingly rare. These findings suggest that BRAF activation in prostate cancer is unique from other cancers and supports further clinical investigation of therapeutics targeting the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway.

Risk of incident cardiovascular diseases at national and subnational levels in Iran from 2000 to 2016 and projection through 2030: Insights from Iran STEPS surveys

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in developing countries. CVD risk stratification guides the health policy to make evidence-based decisions.

AIM

To provide current picture and future trend of CVD risk in the adult Iranian population.

METHODS

Nationally representative datasets of 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2016 STEPwise approach to non-communicable diseases risk factor surveillance (STEPS) studies were used to generate the 10-year and 30-year risks of CVD based on Framingham, Globorisk, and World Health Organization (WHO) risk estimation models. Trend of CVD risk was calculated from 2000 until 2016 and projected to 2030.

RESULTS

In 2016, based on Framingham model, 14.0% of the Iranian, aged 30 to 74, were at great risk (≥20%) of CVD in the next 10 years (8.0% among females, 20.7% among males). Among those aged 25 to 59, 12.7% had ≥45% risk of CVD in the coming 30 years (9.2% among females, 16.6 among males). In 2016, CVD risk was higher among urban area inhabitants. Age-standardized Framingham 10-year CVD risk will increase 32.2% and 19%, from 2000 to 2030, in females and males, respectively. Eastern provinces had the lowest and northern provinces had the greatest risk.

CONCLUSIONS

This study projected that CVD risk has increased from 2000 to 2016 in Iran. Without further risk factor modification, this trend will continue until 2030. We have identified populations at higher risks of CVD to guide future intervention.

Implications of ethnicity among patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) treated with nivolumab plus ipilimumab (nivo/ipi)

613

Background: Existing literature has reported differences in clinical outcomes by ethnicity in patients receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors (Olsen et al Front Oncol 2021). We investigated real-world outcomes between Latinx and non-Latinx mRCC patients treated with first-line nivo/ipi within a safety-net healthcare system and at a tertiary care center in Southern California. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of mRCC patients who received nivo/ipi within the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services (DHS), a safety-net healthcare system, and the City of Hope Comprehensive Cancer Center (COH), a tertiary oncology center, between Jan. 1, 2015 and Dec. 31, 2021. Patients were identified using institutional databases and clinical data were compiled from electronic health records. Patients with pathologic diagnosis of mRCC, age > 18 years and receipt of nivo/ipi as first-line therapy were included. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards model with adjustments for other covariates. Results: Of 94 patients, 66 (70%) were male, 90 (94%) had clear-cell histology, and 87 (93%) had IMDC intermediate/poor risk disease. Forty patients (43%) were Latinx. Fifty (53%) and 44 (47%) patients received their care at a tertiary care center and within a safety-net healthcare system, respectively. Most Latinx patients (95%) were treated at DHS, and most non-Latinx patients (89%) were treated at COH. Latinx patients were significantly older than non-Latinx patients (59.5 vs 55 years, p=0.008). IMDC risk classification, body mass index, history of nephrectomy, and number of comorbidities were similar between both groups. Pooled analysis by ethnicity demonstrated significantly shorter PFS in Latinx versus non-Latinx patients (10.1 vs 25.2 months, HR 3.61, 95% CI 1.96-6.66, p= <0.01). Adjusting for age, gender, IMDC risk classification, history of nephrectomy, and number of co-morbidities, multivariate analysis revealed a HR of 3.41 (95% CI 1.31-8.84; p=0.01). At a median follow up of 11.0 months, the median OS was not met in either arm at the time of data cutoff (NR vs. NR, HR 1.34, 95% CI 0.44-4.11). Conclusions: Compared to non-Latinx patients,Latinx patients demonstrated shorter PFS; no difference was observed in OS although these data were immature. As the majority of Latinx patients received their care at DHS, our data suggest that disparities in access to care may significantly contribute to differences in clinical outcomes of mRCC patients receiving nivo/ipi.

Spectrum and implications of activating BRAF alterations in advanced prostate cancer (aPC)

220

Background: Activating genomic alterations (GA) in BRAF are rare in aPC and their impact on pathogenesis is poorly understood. However, emerging data suggest that these GA may represent clinically actionable targets (Fenor et al, Clin Transl Oncol, 2022). Using comprehensive genomic profiling (CGP) performed in a single commercial lab, we characterized the GA landscape of BRAF-activated tumors in aPC patients (pts). Methods: Tissue(N=15,864) and liquid (N=7,566) biopsies from aPC pts were profiled using FoundationOne CDx and FoundationOne Liquid CDx CGP assays, respectively. Each assay covers 324 cancer-related genes, including the full coding region of BRAF and introns 7-10, with additional sensitivity in exons 11-18 in the liquid assay. Activating GA were defined as hotspot missense mutations, in-frame indels in the kinase domain, or rearrangements (RE) that preserve the kinase domain. Tissue biopsies from non-aPC cancer types (N= 275,151) were used for comparison. Results: BRAF-activating GA were detected in 520/15,864 (3.3%) tissue biopsies: RE were the most common GA (243 samples, 1.5%), followed by K601E (101, 0.6%), and G469A (58, 0.4%). Median age of pts with BRAF-altered tumors was 69 (interquartile range 63-76), compared to 68 for BRAF wild-type (interquartile range 62-74). Rearrangement breakpoints occurred most frequently in intron 8 (37%), intron 9 (28%), intron 10 (20%), and intron 7 (13%). The most common RE were BRAF N-terminal truncations removing the auto-inhibitory domain (22%), SND1-BRAF fusions (13%), intragenic BRAF deletions of the auto-inhibitory domain (12%), and TMPRS22-BRAF fusions (5%). When studying cases with BRAF-activating GA compared to wild-type, we noted a larger proportion of CDK12 mutations (9.2% vs 5.2%, p=0.018), and a depletion of TMPRSS2-ERG fusions (11% vs 32%, p<0.0001), PTEN GA (17% vs 31%, p<0.0001), and APC GA (4.4% vs 8.9%, p = 0.018); alterations in AR occurred at similar rates (13% vs 13%, p=1.0). In liquid samples, overall BRAF GA were slightly less common (187/7566, 2.5%): 65 (0.9%) RE, 33 (0.4%) K601E, 12 (0.2%) G469A. Examining BRAF-altered samples across all cancer types, aPC had the highest proportions of RE (46%) and one of the lowest frequencies of V600E (0.1%). Conclusions: Activating BRAF alterations are detected in ~3% of aPC, with frequent BRAF-SND1 fusions. BRAF RE represent almost half of aPC BRAF GA, the highest fraction observed across a pan-tumor dataset. In addition, we detected a higher incidence of concurrent CDK12 GA and a lower relative frequency of concurrent PTEN, APC, and TMPRSS2-ERG GA. These findings suggest that genetic activation of BRAF in aPC pts may contribute to tumorigenesis and supports further clinical investigation of therapeutics targeting the MAPK pathway in this molecular subtype.

Prevalence of dietary modification and supplement use in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC)

662

Background: Mounting data suggests that dietary modification and supplement use, including probiotics, may modulate outcomes with immunotherapy in cancer therapy (Spencer CN et al. Science 2021; Dizman N et al. Nature Medicine 2022). For the first time, we sought to quantify the use of these measures among patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). Methods: An online survey was administered by Kidney Cancer Research Alliance (KCCure), a non-profit patient advocacy group, between July 22 and Sept 22 to a patient mailing list (N=1,532). Only patients diagnosed with mRCC and under active systemic therapy were included for analysis in the current study. Select questions were directed at dietary modification patterns and supplement usage. Patients were additionally surveyed regarding out-of-pocket spending patterns related to supplement purchases and to what extent they shared information about their supplement intake with their physicians. The student's t-test and Chi-square test were used to compare sociodemographic characteristics between participants who did and did not report supplement intake. Results: Out of 1,062 patients with renal cell carcinoma who participated in this survey, 289 met the inclusion criteria (M:F, 145:143). The median age was 61. The majority of patients identified themselves as white (91%), were from the US (86.8%), and had completed a bachelor's degree (52.9%). 21.1%, 46.1%, and 32.6% lived in urban, suburban, and rural locations, respectively. The most common reported first-line treatments were nivolumab/ipilimumab (32.4%) and axitinib/pembrolizumab (13.1%). 22.4% of respondents reported spending >$100/month on supplements, and 8.3% reported spending >$250/mo. Dietary modifications following a cancer diagnosis were reported by 34.9% of respondents, out of which 19.8% followed the Mediterranean diet and 18.8% adopted a ketogenic diet. 50.8% of respondents reported supplement intake. The most widely utilized supplements were cannabidiol (CBD) oil/marijuana, probiotics, and Vitamin C, reported by 28.0%, 24.2%, and 18.6% of respondents, respectively. 83.4% of respondents noted that they consistently report supplement usage to their physicians. There were no statistically significant associations between supplement use and age, sex, living area, or education. Conclusions: A substantial proportion of patients with mRCC use dietary modification and supplements as an adjunct to their antineoplastic treatment. Interventions such as probiotic use and ketogenic diets, which are the subject of a prospective study in mRCC (NCT05119010; NCT05122546), may already be used by many patients. More careful attention to nutrition and supplement use in clinical trial candidates may minimize the impact of these potential confounders.

Financial toxicity in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma on combination therapy

651

Background: Combination therapy based on immunotherapy (IO) alone or in combination with oral tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) has become the standard of frontline therapy in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We sought to ascertain real world data on financial implications in RCC patients on combination therapy. Methods: An online survey was administered by Kidney Cancer Research Alliance (KCCure), a non-profit patient advocacy group, between 07/2022 and 09/2022 to patients via website, mailing lists and social media platforms. Multiple responses from the same patient were prohibited via anonymized IP address tracking. Select questions were directed at questions related to financial concerns as well as the validated 11-item COST measure and out-of-pocket spending patterns related to supplement purchases. Pearson’s correlation (r) and Kendal’s tau test were used to analyze the COST questionnaire, financial burden and hardship. Significance levels were 2 tailed. Results: 289 responders were on combination therapy (IO+IO or IO+TKI) (M:F, 145:143). Median age was 61 (range 19-89). 177 pts answered the COST questionnaire. Patients identified themselves as white (91%), living in the US (86.8%) and had a bachelor's degree or beyond (52.9%). 21.1%, 46.1%, and 32.6% lived in urban, suburban, and rural locations. The approximate annual household income was <50.000US$ in 17%, <100,000US$ in 41% and >200,000US$ in 15%. 61% had private insurance, 27% were on Medicare/Medicaid and 0.6% were uninsured. 14% reported that it was difficult or very difficult to pay their premiums. 31% were retired and 24% not able to work. 28% reported that their medical situation has not reduced their income at all and 26% claimed that their disease reduced their income very much. Significant financial, medical, behavioral, psychological and emotional hardship was reported by 15%, 26%, 12%, 19% and 24% of the patients respectively. The monthly out of pocket costs were independent of type of therapy with 50% of the patients reporting spendings of <50US$. 36% reported high out of pocket costs are a barrier to care. 44% have received financial support through a manufacturer or a foundation.22.4% of responders reported spending >$100/month on supplements, and 8.3% reported spending >$250/mo. Median COST score was 22 (range 4-36). COST score was significantly correlated to age, NCCN distress score, time since diagnosis and supplement intake (p<0.05). Conclusions: Systemic therapy imposes financial hardship on patients but does not seem to be worse with combination therapy in RCC. Route of administration is not influencing financial hardship. Patients are willing to pay for out supplements if their treatment is not causing financial harm.

Genomic and Transcriptomic Predictors of Response from Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy in Patients with Oligoprogressive Renal Cell Carcinoma

Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) has been shown to be safe and effective for delaying systemic treatment change among patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). In this study, we sought to assess the genomic signatures of patients with mRCC who underwent SBRT for oligoprogression. A total of 30 patients with oligoprogressive disease were identified, the majority of whom had clear cell renal cell carcinoma (83.3%) and were receiving first-line treatment (53.3%). Genomic and transcriptomic sequencing were available in 20 and 16 patients, respectively. Duration of systemic treatment (DOT) was categorized as that prior (DOT[P]) and subsequent (DOT[S]) to radiation treatment. The median DOT(P) and DOT(S) were 15.1 and 18.3 mo, respectively, with a median DOT(S)/DOT(P) ratio of 1.4. Patients who had a DOT(S)/DOT(P) ratio of ≥1 had increased expression in pathways related to cell proliferation and development. In contrast, among patients with a ratio of ≤1, the reactive oxygen species pathway was enriched. This study highlights the potential role of genomics and transcriptomics to refine radiation treatment selection in patients with mRCC. PATIENT SUMMARY: In this study, we looked at mutations and genomic expressions among kidney cancer patients who responded better to stereotactic body radiotherapy. We found that enriched expression of certain pathways might play a role in response to radiotherapy.

Recommendations for empowering early career researchers to improve research culture and practice

Early career researchers (ECRs) are important stakeholders leading efforts to catalyze systemic change in research culture and practice. Here, we summarize the outputs from a virtual unconventional conference (unconference), which brought together 54 invited experts from 20 countries with extensive experience in ECR initiatives designed to improve the culture and practice of science. Together, we drafted 2 sets of recommendations for (1) ECRs directly involved in initiatives or activities to change research culture and practice; and (2) stakeholders who wish to support ECRs in these efforts. Importantly, these points apply to ECRs working to promote change on a systemic level, not only those improving aspects of their own work. In both sets of recommendations, we underline the importance of incentivizing and providing time and resources for systems-level science improvement activities, including ECRs in organizational decision-making processes, and working to dismantle structural barriers to participation for marginalized groups. We further highlight obstacles that ECRs face when working to promote reform, as well as proposed solutions and examples of current best practices. The abstract and recommendations for stakeholders are available in Dutch, German, Greek (abstract only), Italian, Japanese, Polish, Portuguese, Spanish, and Serbian.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

eLife's new model and its impact on science communication

The eLife Early-Career Advisory Group discusses eLife's new peer review and publishing model, and how the whole process of scientific communication could be improved for the benefit of early-career researchers and the entire scientific community.

Trend of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to metabolic, behavioral, and environmental risk factors in the past two decades

Background

Ischemic heart diseases (IHD) is the leading cause of mortality, worldwide. Understanding of the status of risk factors contributing to IHD and mortality helps control this public health issue.

Purpose

This study aims to provide global, regional, and national estimates of the trend of IHD burden and deaths attributable to the modifiable risk factors, from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we evaluated the IHD incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). IHD deaths attributable to the different metabolic, behavioral and environmental risk factors were estimated based on risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input from 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were estimated from 1990 to 2019, with an emphasis on 2010 to 2019.

Results

Globally, there were 21·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 18·8–23·7) new cases, 9·1 million (8.4–9·7) deaths, and 182·0 million (170·2–193·5) DALYs due to IHD, in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, IHD incident cases, deaths and DALYs increased globally by 29.1·9% (27.0–31·3), 32·4% (25.3–37·8), and 53.9% (42·7–64·3), respectively. Although high SDI regions succeeded to reduce DLAYs due to IHDs by −36.7% (−33.8 to −39.2), low SDI regions faced an increase in DALYs due to IHDs by +104.4% (+75.0 to +135.3). In 2019, the five leading risk factors of deaths due to IHDs were; high systolic blood pressure [2.2 million deaths (1.7–2.7)], high LDL cholesterol [1.7 million deaths (1.2–2.3)], high fasting plasma glucose [1.1 million deaths (0.6–1.8)], high body-mass index [0.8 million deaths (0.5–1.1)], and diet low in whole grains [0.6 million deaths (0.2–0.8)]. From 1990 to 2019, high SDI regions succeeded to reduce the age standardized death rate of IHDs attributable to metabolic risk factors by −60.1% (−61.9 to −57.7), behavioral risk factors by −61.2% (−62.8 to −59.2) and environmental risk factors by −65.8% (−71.4 to −59.3). During the same period, the age standardized IHD death rate attributable to environmental risk factors decreased by −16.0% (−30.4 to −1.6), while the age standardized IHD death rate attributable to metabolic and behavioral risk factors didn't change significantly, in low SDI regions.

Conclusions

During the past two decades despite steadily increase in incident cases of IHDs, the age standardized burden of IHDs has decreased in high SDI regions most probably due to control of attributable risk factors. However, burden of IHDs has increased dramatically in low SDI regions. Preventive measures such as “polypills” for high blood pressure control programs and life-style modification should be prioritized in these settings.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Age-standardized DALY rates of IHD

Hypertensive heart disease burden attributable to high salt intake in the United States compared to the European Union and the global status: trends from 1990 to 2019

Background

Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) is a major cause of heart failure, cardiovascular related hospitalizations, and mortality. Diet high in salt is one of modifiable risk factors of HHD that can be controlled by appropriate policies.

Purpose

This study aims to provide the HHD burden attributable to diet high in sodium in the United States compared to European and the global trends from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we calculated the HHD, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Diet high in sodium was defined as a diet with more than 1,000 milligrams of sodium per day. HHD deaths attributable to the diet high in sodium was estimated based on risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level Trends of HHD attributable to diet high in sodium was estimated from 1990 to 2019.

Results

Globally, there were 170·3 thousand (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 31.2 to 459.5) deaths, YLLs, YLDs, DALYs due to HHD attributable to diet high in sodium, in 2019. In the United States, 4525 deaths happened because of HHD caused by the diet high in sodium, with 208.4% rise from 1990. In the European Union, 18,143 deaths happened because of HHD caused by the diet high in sodium, with 78.0% rise from 1990. To address the impact of population aging and population growth, we estimated the age standardized values for burden of HHD attributable to the diet high in sodium. From 1990 to 2019, worldwide age standardized YLL, YLD, and DALY rates per 100,000 for HHD attributable to the diet high in sodium changed by −44.0% (−63.6 to −30.6), +3.7% (−14.3 to +13.6), and −41.8% (−61.3 to −28.8), respectively (Figure 1). In the European Union, age standardized YLL, YLD, and DALY rates per 100,000 for HHD attributable to the diet high in sodium changed by −14.8% (−44.6 to −0.2), −13.5% (−45.8 to −14.0), and −14.8% (−43.5 to −0.9), respectively. Compared to the European Union and the worldwide trends, United Sates had the opposite increasing trend of HHD caused by the diet high in sodium. In the United States, age standardized YLL, YLD, and DALY rates per 100,000 for HHD attributable to the diet high in sodium changed by +110.4% (+42.0 to +631.0), +44.2% (+106.4 to +300.5), and −14.8% (−43.5 to −0.9), respectively. As shown in figure 2, the United States' increasing trend of HHD attributable to the diet high in sodium was caused mainly by the increasing trend observed in men.

Conclusions

Despite worldwide success in the restriction of the diet high in sodium, HHD burden attributable to high consumption of sodium is rising in the United States. This warning results requires public health attention to taking actions such as advocating for healthy diet, restricting foods high in sodium such as fast foods, and increasing the access to low salt foods for working groups.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Annual % DALY change of HHD due to saltTrend of HHD DALY in men vs women

Occupational exposure of health care personnel to SARS-CoV-2 particles in the intensive care unit of Tehran hospital

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) has attracted much attention to study its possible presence and airborne transmission. The possibility of COVID-19 airborne transmission in indoor environments is debatable. The present study examined the concentration of viral RNA-containing particles produced directly or indirectly by breathing or coughing of confirmed COVID-19 patients or by carriers without symptoms. Some studies do not accept this method of transmission (COVID-19 airborne transmission). The present study aimed to measure the possible exposure of health care personnel to SARS-CoV-2 particles that may have been suspended in the air to respond to the hypothesis of COVID-19 airborne transmission. Airborne particle sampling was performed using impingement method based on NIOSH (chapter BA) and ASHRAE. Selection of sampling sections was in line with the WHO guidelines. The samples were analyzed using RT-PCR technique. Based on the given results, airborne particles of COVID-19 may present in the air and affect the health of hospital personnel. In fact, the analysis of gene expression in ambient conditions and thereby aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through air is possible and may lead to occupational exposure of health care personnel. Furthermore, it was found that airborne emission of COVID-19 through the breathing zone of patients, particularly in ICU wards with confirmed cases of COVID-19, may be higher than in other ICU wards. Also, the demonstrated results showed that there is a possibility of reaerosolization (reintroduction) of previously airborne SARS-CoV-2 particles into the atmosphere due to health care personnel frequently walking between different wards and stations of ICU.

Ways to increase equity, diversity and inclusion

The eLife Early-Career Advisory Group (ECAG), an international group of early-career researchers committed to improving research culture, calls for radical changes at eLife and other journals to address racism in the scientific community and to make science more diverse and inclusive.

Mitigating the impact of conference and travel cancellations on researchers' futures

The need to protect public health during the current COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated conference cancellations on an unprecedented scale. As the scientific community adapts to new working conditions, it is important to recognize that some of our actions may disproportionately affect early-career researchers and scientists from countries with limited research funding. We encourage all conference organizers, funders and institutions who are able to do so to consider how they can mitigate the unintended consequences of conference and travel cancellations and we provide seven recommendations for how this could be achieved. The proposed solutions may also offer long-term benefits for those who normally cannot attend conferences, and thus lead to a more equitable future for generations of researchers.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance

Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.

Objective

To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.

Evidence Review

We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

Findings

In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).

Conclusions and Relevance

The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

Global, regional and national burden of testicular cancer, 1990-2016: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

OBJECTIVE

To provide estimates of the global incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with testicular cancer (TCa) between 1990 and 2016, using findings from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

For the GBD 2016 study, cancer registry data and a vital registration system were used to estimate TCa mortality. Mortality to incidence ratios were used to transform mortality estimates to incidence, and to estimate survival, which was then used to estimate 10-year prevalence. Prevalence was weighted using disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Age-specific mortality and a reference life expectancy were used to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). DALYs are the sum of YLDs and YLLs.

RESULTS

Global incidence of TCa showed a 1.80-fold increase from 37 231 (95% uncertainty interval [ UI] 36 116-38 515) in 1990 to 66 833 (95% UI 64 487-69 736) new cases in 2016. The age-standardized incidence rate also increased from 1.5 (95% UI 1.45-1.55) to 1.75 (95% UI 1.69-1.83) cases per 100 000. Deaths from TCa remained stable between 1990 and 2016 [1990: 8394 (95% UI 7980-8904), 2016: 8651 (95% UI 8292-9027)]. The TCa age-standardized death rate decreased between 1990 and 2016, from 0.39 (95% UI 0.37-0.41) to 0.25 (95% UI 0.24-0.26) per 100 000; however, the decreasing trend was not similar in all regions. Global TCa DALYs decreased by 2% and reached 391 816 (95% UI 372 360-412 031) DALYs in 2016. The age-standardized DALY rate also decreased globally between 1990 and 2016 (10.31 [95% UI 9.82-10.84]) per 100 000 in 2016).

CONCLUSION

Although the mortality rate for TCa has decreased over recent decades, large disparities still exist in TCa mortality, probably as a result of lack of access to healthcare and oncological treatment. Timely diagnosis of this cancer, by improving general awareness, should be prioritized. In addition, improving access to effective therapies and trained healthcare workforces in developing and under-developed areas could be the next milestones.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Radial head resection versus prosthetic arthroplasty in terrible triad injury: a retrospective comparative cohort study

Aims

The crucial role of the radial head in the stability of the elbow in terrible triad injury is acknowledged. This retrospective study aims to compare the results of resection of a severely comminuted radial head with or without prosthetic arthroplasty as part of the reconstruction for this injury.

Patients and Methods

The outcome of radial head resection was compared with prosthetic arthroplasty in 29 and 15 patients with terrible triad injuries, respectively. There were ten female patients (34.5%) in the resection group and six female patients (40%) in the prosthesis group. The mean age was 40.7 years (sd 13.6) in the resection group and 36 years (sd 9.4) in the prosthesis group. The mean follow-up of the patients was 24.4 months (sd 12) in the resection group and 45.8 months (sd 6.8) in the prosthesis group. Outcome measures included visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain, Mayo Elbow Performance Score (MEPS), Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) Score, and range of movement. Postoperative radiological complications were also recorded.

Results

The mean ranges of extension, flexion, supination, and pronation were not significantly different between the two study groups (p = 0.75, p = 0.65, p = 0.82, and p = 0.68, respectively). The mean VAS score, DASH score, and MEPS of the two groups were also not statistically significantly different (p = 0.93, p = 0.19, and p = 0.32, respectively). At the final visit, the elbow was stable in all patients. No patient was found to have developed an Essex–Lopresti injury. Osteoarthritis grade I and II was observed in five and three patients of the resection group, respectively, and four and one patients of the arthroplasty group, respectively.

Conclusion

The outcome of patients undergoing treatment for terrible triad injuries is similar whether the patient’s radial head was excised or replaced. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:1499–505.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2016: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

IMPORTANCE

The increasing burden due to cancer and other noncommunicable diseases poses a threat to human development, which has resulted in global political commitments reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases. To determine if these commitments have resulted in improved cancer control, quantitative assessments of the cancer burden are required.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the burden for 29 cancer groups over time to provide a framework for policy discussion, resource allocation, and research focus.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were evaluated for 195 countries and territories by age and sex using the Global Burden of Disease study estimation methods. Levels and trends were analyzed over time, as well as by the Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Changes in incident cases were categorized by changes due to epidemiological vs demographic transition.

FINDINGS

In 2016, there were 17.2 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.9 million deaths. Cancer cases increased by 28% between 2006 and 2016. The smallest increase was seen in high SDI countries. Globally, population aging contributed 17%; population growth, 12%; and changes in age-specific rates, -1% to this change. The most common incident cancer globally for men was prostate cancer (1.4 million cases). The leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (1.2 million deaths and 25.4 million DALYs). For women, the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was breast cancer (1.7 million incident cases, 535 000 deaths, and 14.9 million DALYs). In 2016, cancer caused 213.2 million DALYs globally for both sexes combined. Between 2006 and 2016, the average annual age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 130 of 195 countries or territories, and the average annual age-standardized death rates decreased within that timeframe in 143 of 195 countries or territories.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Large disparities exist between countries in cancer incidence, deaths, and associated disability. Scaling up cancer prevention and ensuring universal access to cancer care are required for health equity and to fulfill the global commitments for noncommunicable disease and cancer control.

New Concepts on Reversibility and Targeting of Liver Fibrosis; A Review Article

Currently, liver fibrosis and its complications are regarded as critical health problems. With the studies showing the reversible nature of liver fibrogenesis, scientists have focused on understanding the underlying mechanism of this condition in order to develop new therapeutic strategies. Although hepatic stellate cells are known as the primary cells responsible for liver fibrogenesis, studies have shown contributing roles for other cells, pathways, and molecules in the development of fibrosis depending on the etiology of liver fibrosis. Hence, interventions could be directed in the proper way for each type of liver diseases to better address this complication. There are two main approaches in clinical reversion of liver fibrosis; eliminating the underlying insult and targeting the fibrosis process, which have variable clinical importance in the treatment of this disease. In this review, we present recent concepts in molecular pathways of liver fibrosis reversibility and their clinical implications.

HLA-DRB1 polymorphism and susceptibility to multiple sclerosis in the Middle East North Africa region: A systematic review and meta-analysis

This meta-analysis explores association of HLA-DRB1 alleles with MS risk in the Middle-east North Africa (MENA) countries. Divided into two groups of alleles (10 studies, 899 cases/1457 controls) and phenotypes (8 studies, 1,040 cases/1,256 controls), Odds ratios (ORs) of DRB1 distribution in MS subjects were assessed using Cochrane RevMan software. DRB1*15 demonstrated significant association with MS in both groups (OR=1.6 and OR=2.51, respectively). In phenotypes, DRB1*03 and DRB1*04 had predisposing role (OR=1.8 and OR=1.9), while DRB1*07 and DRB1*11 were protective (OR=0.56 and OR=0.67). Similar but non-significant trends were seen among alleles, which in sum coincides with a Caucasian-like pattern.

Global, Regional and National Burden of Prostate Cancer, 1990 to 2015: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

PURPOSE

Data on the incidence, mortality and burden of prostate cancer as well as changing trends are necessary to provide policy makers with the evidence needed to allocate resources appropriately. This study presents estimates of prostate cancer incidence, mortality and burden from 1990 to 2015 by patient age, country and developmental status using the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from vital registration systems and cancer registries were used to generate mortality estimates. Cause specific mortality served as the basis for estimating incidence, prevalence and disability adjusted life years. The global number of incident cases, deaths and disability adjusted life years attributable to prostate cancer are reported as well as age standardized rates.

RESULTS

Incident cases of prostate cancer increased 3.7-fold from 1990 to 2015. The age standardized incidence rate also increased 1.7-fold during the study period and in 2015 it reached 56.71/100,000 person-years (95% uncertainty interval 45.86-78.45). Global estimates of the age standardized death rate decreased slightly to 14.24 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 11.8-17.95) per 100,000 person-years in 2015. The decline in the age standardized death rate was more prominent in high income countries. Disability adjusted life years attributable to prostate cancer increased by 90% during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

The prostate cancer mortality rate is decreasing in high income countries. However, the incidence and burden of disease are steadily increasing globally, resulting in further challenges in the allocation of limited health care resources. The current study provides comprehensive knowledge of the local burden of disease and help with appropriate allocation of resources for prostate cancer prevention, screening and treatment.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.

METHODS

We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.

FINDINGS

Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined.

FINDINGS

Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks.

INTERPRETATION

Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.

METHODS

We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.

FINDINGS

Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.

INTERPRETATION

GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) for 315 Diseases and Injuries and Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) in Iran and its Neighboring Countries, 1990-2015: Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Summary measures of health are essential in making estimates of health status that are comparable across time and place. They can be used for assessing the performance of health systems, informing effective policy making, and monitoring the progress of nations toward achievement of sustainable development goals. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) as main summary measures of health. We assessed the trends of health status in Iran and 15 neighboring countries using these summary measures.

METHODS

We used the results of GBD 2015 to present the levels and trends of DALYs, life expectancy (LE), and HALE in Iran and its 15 neighboring countries from 1990 to 2015. For each country, we assessed the ratio of observed levels of DALYs and HALE to those expected based on socio-demographic index (SDI), an indicator composed of measures of total fertility rate, income per capita, and average years of schooling.

RESULTS

All-age numbers of DALYs reached over 19 million years in Iran in 2015. The all-age number of DALYs has remained stable during the past two decades in Iran, despite the decreasing trends in all-age and age-standardized rates. The all-cause DALY rates decreased from 47,200 in 1990 to 28,400 per 100,000 in 2015. The share of non-communicable diseases in DALYs increased in Iran (from 42% to 74%) and all of its neighbors between 1990 and 2015; the pattern of change is similar in almost all 16 countries. The DALY rates for NCDs and injuries in Iran were higher than global rates and the average rate in High Middle SDI countries, while those for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders were much lower in Iran. Among men, cardiovascular diseases ranked first in all countries of the region except for Bahrain. Among women, they ranked first in 13 countries. Life expectancy and HALE show a consistent increase in all countries. Still, there are dissimilarities indicating a generally low LE and HALE in Afghanistan and Pakistan and high expectancy in Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Iran ranked 11th in terms of LE at birth and 12th in terms of HALE at birth in 1990 which improved to 9th for both metrics in 2015. Turkey and Iran had the highest increase in LE and HALE from 1990 to 2015 while the lowest increase was observed in Armenia, Pakistan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Iraq.

CONCLUSIONS

The levels and trends in causes of DALYs, life expectancy, and HALE generally show similarities between the 16 countries, although differences exist. The differences observed between countries can be attributed to a myriad of determinants, including social, cultural, ethnic, religious, political, economic, and environmental factors as well as the performance of the health system. Investigating the differences between countries can inform more effective health policy and resource allocation. Concerted efforts at national and regional levels are required to tackle the emerging burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries in Iran and its neighbors.

Comparison of Optimal Cardiovascular Risk Factor Management in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Who Attended Urban Medical Health Center with those Attended a Tertiary Care Center: Experiences from Tehran, Iran

Background:

Diabetes is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Moreover, CVD accounts for primary cause of death among diabetic patients. Physicians, especially in the primary care setting, have effective role in the management of cardiovascular risk factors. Therefore, we aimed to compare the prevalence of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in Type 2 diabetic patients attending to an urban health center as a primary care center with Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism Diabetes Clinic (IEMDC) as a tertiary center.

Methods:

This cross-sectional study was performed on 200 adult diabetic patients attending urban health center (Abouzar Health Center) and 201 diabetic patients in a tertiary center. The patients’ cardiovascular risk factors including lipid profile, systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP), and smoking history were recorded. The number of patients who did not achieve the target according to the American Diabetes Association guidelines was determined and compared.

Results:

The patients in urban health center were older than those who attending IEMDC (P = 0.004). The duration of diabetes was longer among urban center patients (P < 0.001). Comparison of cardiovascular risk factors between two groups of patients showed a significant number of patients with poor-controlled low-density lipoprotein (75% vs. 44.7%) and triglyceride (74% vs. 51.7%) in patients attending primary center (P < 0.001). However, the prevalence of high diastolic BP (60.6% vs. 44.5%) was significantly higher in patients attending IEMDC (P = 0.001). There was no significant difference between the two centers’ findings in glycosylated hemoglobin level, high-density lipoprotein level, and systolic BP.

Conclusions:

Both centers have failure in target achievement in some risk factors; however, the inability of the primary care center in controlling hyperlipidemia in comparison with the tertiary center is a serious warning to provide training about managing dyslipidemia in these centers.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

INTERPRETATION

Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

New Concepts on Pathogenesis and Diagnosis of Liver Fibrosis; A Review Article

Liver fibrosis is a potentially reversible response to hepatic insults, triggered by different chronic diseases most importantly viral hepatitis, alcoholic, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. In the course of the chronic liver disease, hepatic fibrogenesis may develop, which is attributed to various types of cells, molecules, and pathways. Activated hepatic stellate cell (HSC), the primary source of extracellular matrix (ECM), is fundamental in pathophysiology of fibrogenesis, and thus is the most attractable target for reversing liver fibrosis. Although, liver biopsy has long been considered as the gold standard for diagnosis and staging of hepatic fibrosis, assessing progression and regression by biopsy is hampered by its limitations. We provide recent views on noninvasive approaches including serum biomarkers and radiologic techniques.

Comparative assessment of the therapeutic effects of the topical and systemic forms of Hypericum perforatum extract on induced oral mucositis in golden hamsters

Oral mucositis is a common and irritating complication of chemotherapy and radiotherapy for malignancies. Current treatments have failed to achieve complete remission of this complication. The St. John's wort plant (Hypericum perforatum) has long been known for its anti-inflammatory and antibacterial effects. The current study was designed to investigate the therapeutic efficacy of the topical and systemic administration of H. perforatum extract on oral mucositis. Oral mucositis was induced in 72 male golden hamsters by administration of 5-fluorouracil (60mg/kg), on days 0, 5, and 10 of the study. The cheek pouch was scratched with a sterile needle on days 1 and 2. On days 12-17, H. perforatum extract topical gel 10%, oral H. perforatum extract (300mg/kg), and gel base groups were treated and then compared with a control group. Weights and blood samples were evaluated, biopsies from buccal lesions were examined histopathologically, and tissue malondialdehyde (MDA) was measured. Both of the H. perforatum extract treatment groups saw a significant relief in oral mucositis compared to the control and base gel groups; the systemic form was superior to the topical form. H. perforatum extract, administered orally or topically, expedited the healing of chemotherapy-induced oral mucositis in hamsters.